Fintron's AW Thread

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 8.50 Great Leighs I don't fancy this Alimarr at all. She's been given an offical rating of 70 so looks best in at the weights but that rating appears to have been allotted because of trainer reputation rather than racecourse achievements. The form of her maidens looks weak and none of the form has been boosted with subsequent winners. Shadow Bay has the ability to go well at this level but stall 13 is rather offputting for a prominent front runners so I'm taking gamble on Captain Cavandish at 14/1 (Ladbrokes). Alan Bailey's gelding has previously won on the polytrack at Wolverhampton in a seller but ran a good second behind Hold the Buck's in a handicap at the same course last time. He is lighly raced and there could still be more improvement to come. He raced prominently last time, and stall 7 isn't too bad in that respect, but his previous win came from off the pace and so he looks versatile tactics wise. 14/1 Lads, suggested bet 10 pts win.

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 2.25 Lingfield I do like the favourite, Internationaldebut, and backed him last time. He's going the right way and got the job done well last time but he's looking rather skinny at 15/8 for this handicap as he carries a penalty and is stepped up in grade. The jockey booking of Jamie Spencer on Flipando catches the eye and he is my alternative bet at a more backable price. Spencer seems to do well for this trainer, and hosed up on Hows' She Cuttin for him not so long back. His mount today has a 25 % win rate from 12 runs at this level and is 7 lbs lower than his last winning mark (which came in a class 2 Redcar handicap last May). He's yet to run on polytrack but the best animals often have no problem making the transition from turf and he will appreciate this drop in class from the £25k Doncaster handicap he contested last time. He seems in decent form and could maybe cause an upset. 15/2 Blue Square, 10 pts win. 3.00 Lingfield Ffiefdom looks massive at 11/1 (Blue Sq). A dual CD winner in recent months at a higher level, he must enter calculations here racing off a mark only 2 lb higher than his last win. I Confess may struggle now back in a handicap and although the selection has someting to find with Carmanero based on last time out form, he at least has a better strike rate than that rival and is proven over CD. Cornus could have claims, but he's a little short for me. Suggested bet 10 pts win @ 11/1 Blue Sq.

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 6.50 Wolv I'm not too keen on Sir Liam in this opener. 13/8 is crazy. Climate looks to be a decent priced alternative. His profile suggests he often follows up and he won last time out after being backed off the boards. Even under a penalty he is well handicapped on the pick of his old form and he has the best apprentice in this race on board. 10/3 Bet 365 10 pts win 8.20 Wolv Plenty of these look handicapped to score with the likes of First Order, Ten Down and Canadian Danehill all winners off much higher marks previously in their career. However, their recent form has been disappointing and others appeal more. Steel City Boy makes his debut for Derek Shaw and could win more races now away from Ann Stokell. Fast Freddie has been in good form but I have doubts about whether he will have the race run to suit. He is best when allowed to dominate, but with Cayman Fox and Ten Down in the line up he is unlikely to get an easy lead. With that In mind, my main selection in this race is Figaro Flyer, who, although 7 lbs above his last winning mark (won at Southwell in May) has won off a 5 lb higher mark earlier in his career. He is versatile tactics wise and he has won multiple times coming from off the pace. If the aforementioned trio wear each other out battling for the lead then he may pick them off late on. Fast Freddie 9/4 Paddypower 5 pts win Figaro Flyer 11/1 Sporting Bet 5 pts win 9.20 Wolv The finale is packed with hold up performers so pace could be a real issue here. Direct Debit is likely to race more keenly than most and ran a decent 4th to Spinning here recently over CD. They race on identical terms here but Direct Debit may be better suited to the way this race is likely to be run. He won a claimer over CD last time and although more is needed back in this handicap he is at least in good heart. 11/1 Sporting Bet 10 pts win

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 3.30 Great Leighs This looks a quality little sprint with £11k going to the winner. 8 runners are declared and the ones that stand out at the weights are Fyodor, Maltese Falcon, Matsunsosuke and Vhujon. Fyodor was one I posted previously in the thread and he won at decent odds. He isn't the most reliable judging by his profile but he undoubtedly possesses ability and if turning up in the same mood this afternoon he could make the frame racing off a mark 7 lbs higher than his last win (and he did win very convincingly, more so than the 2 length winning margin suggests) but only 4 lbs higher than his highest ever winning mark. He is also one of only three in this line up to have won at class 2 level before. Maltese Falcon is a proven class 2 handicapper and has infact won listed races (last of which was a year ago). He is racing off a mark 1 lb lower than his last handicap win, so on weight alone has a cracking chance. He would have needed the run last time when trailing home at Kempton, despite a good draw, but all of his AW wins have come at Lingfield. The other runner proven at this level if Vhujon, who won a £9k Kempton handicap at this level off 90 in March. He dropped down in class for a confidence boosting win, again at Kempton, as recently as September, but he was well beaten off this sort of mark by Lone Wolffe and Beat The Bell over course and distance recently and may be best watched. Lone Wolffe and Beat The Beat are in a similar sort of predicament to Diciculous. They possess ability, but have never won beyond class 3 level to date. Diriculous, although he has been running well off 94 and 97 in his last two, steps up in grade and that, added to the fact he is 12 lbs higher than his latest success means I simply cannot back him at 2/1. He looks too short, despite the fact he's a CD winner and has one of the top AW jocks in Neil Callan on board. Lone Wolffe isn't a bad little performer, but again, he steps up in class and he was behind Fyodor and Biniou last time and there is little reason to beleive he will reverse placings with at least the latter at the revised weights. Biniou is yet to win a handicap in this country although he did run well last time out beghind Fyodor. He is a listed race winner in France but others appeal more. Matsunosuke is racing off a mark 1 lb lower than his last win, but that came over a year ago. He hasn't won beyond class 2 level and based upon the fact he was beaten by over 4 lengths off this mark last time out, he is opposed here. Verdict An interesting race indeed and I will be interested to see if Diriculous can justify favouritsm in a competive race. Maltese Falcon could get involved if on song but I am sticking with Fyodor again after a decent win last time. One of only three in the field proven at this grade, he has the class to win this race and hopefully he can develop a bit more consistency now with Conor Dore. 5/1 Bet 365 (BOG), 10 pts win.

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 5.00 Great Leighs £11k is up for grabs in this class 2 handicap over a mile and a quarter but only 7 runners are vying for the prize. The ones that appeal ay the weights are Suits Me, Art Man and Mafeking. Suits Me arrives in excellent form and was one I backed for his last run. He drifted out to a massive 6/1 from 4's even though he was only one of a few proven in the grade last time out. The same scenario occurs here as only he and Mafeking are proven at this level. It was Mafeking that chased him home last time and that rival is 5 lbs better off as he seeks to overturn a one and a half lengh defeat to the Tom Tate runenr last time out. Mafeking is getting sharper with every run and was entitled to need the race when 4/4 here at the beginning of last month. He won a £9k Lingfield handicap at this level in January off 86 so races off a mark only 1 lb higher here. The RP make an interesting point in one of the write ups after one of his previous wins - both of his last two wins have come when he has been turned out within a week of his last run and the number of days since his last run today is 7! He is certainly weighted to get close to Suits Me, but I think with the form he is in, Suits Me should be backed as a small saver also. Moynahan wasn't far behing in third in that race but isn't weighted to get any closer to Mafeking. Art Man was behind the aforementioned trio in that Kempton race and hasn't yet won above class 3 level, although he is racing off a mark only 1 lb higher than his last win. Big Robert, Moynaham, Bon Spiel and Kayak have never won handicaps in the UK and I'lll quite readily pass over all as a result. Verdict Mafeking looks a value bet at the price at the revised weights and is getting sharper with every run and so he is my main bet, with Suits Me, who will be on a high as he bids for the four-timer, a suggested saver. 7.5 pts Mafeking 7/1 Bet 365 (BOG) 2.5 pts Suits Me 3/1 Ppower (BOG)

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 7.50 Wolverhampton The best race on the card in my opinion as 11 line up for this class 4 sprint handicap over the minimum distance. The ones that appeal at the weights are Harry Up, Bertoliver, Yunguburra, Almaty Express, The Tatling, Sands Crooner, Mambo Spirit and Just for Mary. Harry Up won over course and distance last time out for Jamie Spencer and has been raised only 3 lbs as a result of that win. Running in the same grade again he must make any shortlist, especially since he is running off a mark only 1 higher than his highest ever win. Whether he should be at the top of the shortlist is questionable though; he likes to make all and stall 11 isn't ideal in that respect. Bertoliver won a class 2 handicap off 90 at Chester in May and races off 85 here as he drops down in grade. He wasn't drawn ideally last time but he does have a little to prove as he's done little off dwindling marks of late. He's never placed on the AW in five starts and although will be better suited to dominate from stall 5, would only be a speculative pick. A tussle for the lead with Almaty Express would probably hinder his chances. Yungaburra was a nice little AW horse when with Tim Pitt several years ago. He lost his way but has come back with a bang for inform trainer Stuart Parr. His horse has been raised 7 lbs for his win in this grade last time out, but he has won off a 1 lb higher mark previously and may still be weighted to score. He had the Tatling behind that day and the last named seems happier on turf, although he is well weighted on the pick off his turf form (20 lbs lower than highest ever win, 3 lbs higher than last win). Almaty Express has won off 1 lb higher but has been well beaten in recent runs. He made all when winning at Great Leighs in May so stall 1 is ideal, but the fact connections have enlisted the help of a 7 lb claimer (who IMO is not worth every lb) means they probably think he needs some help from the handicapper. Sands Crooner won magnificently here two starts ago, but he failed to follow up since when behind Ivory Silk. His now only 3 lbs above his last winning mark but he needs things to fall just right. He would ideally like to chase a fast gallop, and he could get that from Almaty Express and Bertoliver, but he's not won in this grade since March '06. Just For Mary won a 60-100 race in Ireland off 68 in March of this year but has failed to follow up since. He is only 5 lbs above his last winning mark but trailed home last at Wolverhampton yesterday and he may not even take part tonight. Verdict With Harry Up badly drawn and Almaty Express and Bertoliver likely to set a good pace I think it could pay to side with a hold up horse. Sands Crooner would have claims if the gaps appear and he is my saver, but Yungaburra arrives in rude health and is my main selection. 8 pts Yungaburra @ 3/1 Bet 365 (BOG) 2 pts Sands Crooner @ 10/1 Bet 365 (BOG)

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 9.20 Wolverhampton In the nightcap I can't get away from Irish Ballad. It looks a weak race and he's only been put up 2 lbs from his win in this grade last time out. Blue Hills is well handicapped but was behind Irish Ballad recently and they run off very similar weights again. Zuwaar ran a good race behind Laurel Creek off his current mark but then flopped last time. A few others, like Foriegn King, Nounou, Rare Coincidence and Champagne Shadow are all well handicapped but seem to lack consistency so I'll stick to Irish Ballad as he looks for the hat-trick. 21/10 Sporting Bet, 10 pts win

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 2.30 Lingfield Nine line up for the £15k prize for what looks to be the best race on the card. Beat The Bell continues to run solid races but the handicapper seems to have him and he ran only yesterday so may not be fully recovered from that outing. Capricorn Run, Markab and My Gacho all locked horns with Beat the Bell in a race here on the 22nd November, and at the weights Markab, second that day, looks the most likely winner. He is 7 lbs above his last winning mark when he was a course and distance winner at a lower level at the start of November, but his second to 103-rated Atlantic Story, prolific under those conditions, reads as an impressive piece of form. He's up 2 lbs to 97 here but only Ebraam is running off a higher weight, and he had that rival comfortably behind when they last met. Capricorn Run is well treated on the pick of his handicap form and ran in a listed race last time. However, there is little reason to beleive he will overturn recent Lingfield placings with Markab, and the same is true for My Gacho, who is unproven behond class 4 level and is only 1 lb better off with Markab here. He's 7 lbs above his last win. Whistledownwind was slaughtered off 100 in a handicap last time and even though he's dropped 3 lbs he looks a gamble. Decameron is too short at 4/1 for my liking, despite powerful connections, as he's never won a handicap and was well beaten off just a 1 lb higher mark when last seen. Bellomi was another well beaten last time and Bazroy is unproven at the level and was beaten by 5 lengths off a 3 lb lower mark when last seen so looks exposed to me. Suggested bet: Markab 7/2 Paddypower, 10 pt win.

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread This past week has been terrible. I'll keep going with it as I'm still in profit and will look to avoid that donkey's playground, Southwell, in the future probably. I'm going to also try and bet less in class 5/6 races where horses are not as reliable. Updated figures......... 1/12 Blue Hills (7th)/Snowberry Hill (1st) +55 profit 1/12 Lytton (11th) -10<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

1/12 Bank On Benny (2nd) -10

1/12 Classic Blue 11th/ Darley Star 12th: -10

1/12 Ryedane 2nd /Cosmic Destiny 1st /Metal Guru 5th - 0

1/12 Moyoko (6th) -10

1/12 Hold The Gold (5th) -10

2/12 Came Back (4th) -10

2/12 Le Petit Vigier (10th) -10

2/12 <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />West End Lad (3rd)/ Ridgeway Jazz (7th): -10

2/12 Hurricane Harriet (7th) /Cool Sands (4th) -10

4/12 Tobar Suil Lady (5th) -10 4/12 Royal Envoy (5th) -10 4/12 Captain Cavandish (8th) -10 5/12 Flipando (4th) -10 5/12 Fiefdom (10th) -10

5/12 Climate (11th) -10

5/12 Fast Freddie (7th)/Figaro Flyer (3rd) -10

5/12 Direct Debit (6th) -10

6/12 Fyodor (6th) -10

6/12 Suits Me (1st)/Mafeking (5th): 0

6/12 Yungaburra (3rd)/Sands Crooner (2nd): -10

6/12 Irish Ballad (2nd) -10

7/12 Markab (2nd) -10

Overall Results Bets to date: 120 + 24 = 144 Strike Rate (inc EW bets that yield profit): 35/144 (24 %) Total pts staked: 1157 + 240 = 1397 Total pts returned: 1340.53 + 87 = 1427.53 Overall profit/loss: +30.53 Thread Records Biggest priced winner: Back in the Red, Sofia's Star 16/1 (17/11/08, 30/11/08) Most backed winner: Back in the Red (16/1 advised into 11/1 SP) Longest winning run: 3 (30/10/08) Longest losing run: 15 (1/12/08 - 6/12/08)

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread Mostly low grade handicaps today which I'm looking to avoid but there are a couple of claimers and I've no reason to stop betting in them as the thread has had quite a few winners from them. 2.40 Wolverhampton Jonah's Cruising would be receiving 5 lb less from top-rated Protiva is this was a handicap so looks to have been put in on a handy weight. This daughter of Barathea should have no problem with the trip, acts on the surface as a win at Kempton proves, and ran well last time out at Lingfield when behind Hold The Bucks. She was only three quarters of a length off the winner but was 5 lbs worser off than if the race had been a handicap so that was a decent effort in consideration. 3.15 Betfair, 10 pts win 3.10 Wolverhampton The jockey booking of George Baker on Bridgewater Boys is significant as the Gary Moore trained horse has won its last three for that jockey. He's running off a good weight and for this seller and even though he was fifth last time out, he was running off level weights with a winner rated 8 lbs superior so was always going to be up against it. He won as recently as October so we know the ability is still there, especially at plating level where he has a great record. 2.18 Betfair, 10 pts win 1.30 Lingfield Electric Warrior and Desert Dreamer are competitively weighted and although Electric Warrior finished 3rd to Red Somerset last time out, he was 2 lbs wrong with that rival. It it possible that the extended mile that day may have tested him a little too much too, and the drop back in trip should aid his chances here. Desert Dreamer should be involved at the business end of the race too and is infact the fav. He was 3rd over CD to a much higher rated rival last time out but I Confess split him from Monkey Glass and is only rated 67 so appears that several ran below their offical marks judged on the proximity of the finish. He does have a CD win to his name from earlier in the year but I'm taking a chance on Electric Warrior. 5/2 Bet 365 (BOG), 10 pts win.

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 1.00 Southwell This is an above average race for the course and I'm going to take a chance on Garlogs. Front runners do particularly well over this 5 furlong trip, the only straight all-weather sprint in Britain, and Reg Hollinshead's gelding relishes this course and distance, with four previous wins to his name. He likes to make all and so is suited to this surface, as hold up performers often fail to come from too far off the pace. Although all of his wins have come at a lower level than this he won a class 4 handicap off 71 in May which is probably his best career effort to date. The RP gave him a top-speed rating of 96 for that race and a repoduction of that effort should see him in the mix tomorrow. He was entitled to need the run 13 days ago and despite the fact he wasn't fully tuned up, posted a respectable speed figure of 93 as he finished 4th. To me that suggests the ability is still there and he should strip fitter for that outing so with the yard in such tremendous form - Doubtful Sound, Hucking Heat and Viper have all won in the last two days - I'm having a speculative punt even though he's taking a step up in class here and is 5 lbs above his last winning mark. 6/1 Paddypower 10 pts win

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 1.00 Southwell This is the 5f dash of the card and the sprint yesterday was won, yet again, by a front runner, so I'm looking for a prominent runner here. This is only a seller so its not an ideal race to study, but there are a couple that look to have a chance. Grimes Faith went well in an apprentices race recently and I think he's probably worth his rating of 62, give or take a lb or two. Punching, at face value, looks well in at the weights but the trainer has put on a 7 lb claimer, to suggest he needs more help from the handicapper. Its questionable Kylie Manser is worth the claim, so even though he races prominently I'm happy to pass over. Ronnie Howe is a course and distance winner and has had excuses for two poor recent efforts because of a bad draw. The likes of Ice Planet, Babel and Calmdownmate are better off at the weights, but his running style is suited to the course and he's at least proven on the surface and has been in form this summer. 25/1 looks overpriced to me. Babel may not be able to win off 70 so I don't think he's that well in. He flopped here before too so doesn't interest me. Apocalypto hasn't shown any signs of ability to date. Calmdownmate was second to Came Back here yesterday. Perhaps those exertions may have taken their toll and at 9/2 I'm not willing to take that gamble, even though he's gone well here on last two runs. Cape Roberto has rarely looked like winning and been well beaten in all starts, Ice Planet is a former Dandy horse now with Ruth Carr. Makes his debut for this yard at a low level, so either they think he is too highly rated for handicaps or he has proven a dud at home and they want to get rid. The surface should suit and he has won before racing in touch, so has a chance. Our Aquiantaince was 3rd here last month and is proven over the trip. Runs near the front but isn't running off a great weight. The Cube has a massive task at the weights and is a maiden after 19 starts. Minimum Fuss has been getting thrashed in plating races and also has a tough task bearing in mind he's rated 38 but getting only 5 lbs from Ice Planet, even though he'd get 35 in a handicap!! Verdict Ice Planet is well in at the weights and drops down from class 5 handicaps to a class 6 seller here. If the ability is still there he should get involved but in recent starts he's come from off the pace and for that reason I'd rather watch than back here. Grimes Faith has been running respectably in moderate races and with Daryll Holland on, Kevin Ryan's horse should go well but I'm going to take a little chance on Ronnie Howe at an attractive price. He has a little to find with Ice Planet at the weights but has the ability to take a race at this grade and has had excuses for recent defeats. He's proven to act on the surface so at 25/1 (Blue Square) I'll take the chance. 10 pts on the nose.

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 7.50 Kempton Quite a lot of these have recent winning form but not all of it is in handicaps. Doncsoaque romped a claimer last time out but this is tougher. Holberg won a maiden and makes his handicap debut. My Best Mate was off the mark off 63 in a handicap last time out but leaps from 0-65 to 0-85 company. The same comment also applies to Highland River. The one that hasn't won before but also looks to have a decent chance is Black N Brew. John Best's runner steps up in trip to a mile here and I hope that could be the making of him. He undoubtedly possesses talent, as a 1 length second to Khor Dubai at Lingfield earlier this season proves (the Godolphin rival is a handicap winner off 84). He bumped into some useful types in a nursery here in July when an eyecatching 2 lengths behind Crystal Moments ( who won off 84 NTO). Missile Dodger and Night Seed that split the pair are rated better than the 70 Black N Brew runs off here. On a couple of occassions now the RP have noted an extra furlong would suit him and although he got that when stepped up to 7f last time out, that race was run a slow pace and may have not necessarily helped. 11/1 Bet 365, 10 pts win

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 7.50 Great Leighs In interesting race as Spooner says and the two market leaders are the course and distance winners Turban Heights and Weybridge Light. Turban Heights won in this grade last time out beating in form Bank on Benny and is only 5 lbs higher here so could notch up a double. Chris Catlin rides though. Whilst I acknowledge he is a top AW jockey he never does me any favours and I can't remember the last time he rode a winner for me so I'm opposing, despite the fact he's top-weight. Weybridge Light has won on both starts here since coming over from Ireland. I backed him for the first of those wins but left him be last time as he was up 5 lbs but he won again, and carries a 6 lb penalty as a result. Again he races from the bottom of the handicap, and whilst I'd prefer to back one from the other end, the presence of a 7 lb claimer means he has a decent chance here. He does step up in class though. Clear Reef was fourth to Turban Heighs last time out and is 2 lbs better off as he looks to reverse a 1.75 length defeat last time. His wins have come at a lower level but he's only 4 lbs above his last winning mark and has a decent chance of getting closer to Turban Heights here. Prince Zafonic remains a maiden after 17 starts. Best form came at Sandown when second off 66 in this grade. Races of 70 but claimer takes off 5 lbs to give it a bit of a chance on the pick of its form and best form seems to be around this trip, but others appeal more. Dundry is well weighted as he's won off 5 lbs higher in this grade in the past. Found marks in the high 70's and upwards beyond him but George Baker replaces Fergus Sweeney and he cannot be discounted. Has disappointed on two runs this year though. Baan ran well over this trip last time in a low grade handicap. Has never won a handicap though, although was beaten by a head at Wolv last year off 67 and is 64 here. Wasn't doing much off marks in the mid 60's for some time but a combination of a new trainer and a step up in trip seemed to work well for him last time and he looked like the winner at one point. He was dropped 5 lbs by the handicapper for that run and although put back up 4 lbs for this, came close to winning last time and could be worth following. Azabu Jaban was second to Weybridge Light last time but has gone up 3 lbs here. Luke Morris is back in the saddle after a cameo from Catlin, and that should give him a good chance of getting closer to that rival. Verdict If Catlin had done me a few more favours recently I'd be on Turban Heights but he hasn't so I'm passing over. It will be interesting to see if Clear Reef and Azabu Jaban can get any closer to Turban Heights and Weybridge Light respectively at the revised weights but I'm taking a chance on the long shot Baan. He clearly has ability and won a conditions race rated 96 for Mark Johnson several years ago. He's failed to make his mark in handicaps but ran with promise on his first start for Hugh Collingridge and after the handicapper had showed him some leniency. 16/1 Blue Sq, 10 pts win

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 8.50 Great Leighs With Ivory Silk withdrawn only six line up for this class 4 sprint handicap over 6 furlongs. Temple of Thebes is only 4 lbs higher than his last win (at Newmarket back in May) in this grade but he's not managed to win since. He acts on the surface and is a CD winner from a maiden. Epic Odyssey is a former Ger Lyons import from Ireland and finished 6th on his UK debut for his current trainer. He ran off 86 that day in a class 3 event, so this is easier. He has some decent Irish form - a second to 92-rated Aine back in April at Navan, won a Curragh maiden in June (weak form though) and was closely matched with Romeos On Fire in a Dundalk race. That rival has just won off 84 at home and the 2nd, Invincible Ash has won a handicap off 79 and finished a neck second lto in a listed race. Some of his more recent form is less impressive though. Glencalvie returns from a 115 day break but won a handicap in this grade off 73 at Windsor last year and more recently won off 71 in a class 5 Lingfield handicap. His losing distance when last seen was just a neck behind Fiefdom, but he's been raised 3 lbs for that defeat which seems a little harsh. He doesn't have the benefit of Tolley Dean's 3 lbs claim today either. Southandwest is more than capable at this level. He's been 4th and 2nd in this grade on his last two runs off 76 at this level, and has even won a class 3 handicap at Newcastle off 82 in May so has the class to win a race like this. The trip looks okay as he's won over 5f and 7f, and he seems to handle the surface well enough. First Order has recently moved to Ann Stokell from Amanda Perrett and was beaten by only half a length by Canadian Danehill last time out off his current mark off 75. This is a step up in class though. Did win off 78 at Newcastle in this grade earlier in the year when Neil Brown claimed three, so has a chance at the weights, but I've never had any luck with Stokell's runners so passing over. Asian Power always seems to run solid races but rarely wins. Back down to last winning mark (Feb '08) but steps up in class from that win here. Has been getting beaten in class 5 races and this is tougher; opposed. Verdict I don't fancy Asian Power in a race at this level,Glencalvie has been raised by the handicapper so must be in tip-top shape to win this returning from a break and Temple of Thebes and Epic Odyssey have a little to proved based on recent form. I can't back First Order with Ann Stokell on, so Southandwest gets my vote. Liam Keniry is capable, and he looks well handicapped. If Glencalvie and Epic Odyssey do battle upfront, he could sit in nicely behind and get up late on. 7/2 Blue Sq, 10 pts win.

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 9.20 Great Leighs Nine line up for this class 5 handicap over a mile and a quarter. Vine Street is the clear market leader and runs for Michael Jarvis. She runs off a mark of 68 here and is due to drop 1 lb in the future, but has done well since moving into handicaps and won well last time. She is clearly going to go close, but touching evens with some firms I'm not interested with this being a h'cap. Dinner Date has been raised 6 pounds for a win over a mile in this grade last time out, and although the trip poses no problem, he has a career high mark to overcome. All in the Red goes for Georgey Baker but has never won a handicap. He ran well enough last time off his current mark of 67 to suggest this mark isn't beyond him, but he's going into unknown territory with regards to the trip. Kings Topic won an apprentices handicap off 64 two runs ago and has won a couple of times for this jockey. This race clearly demands more as he's moving from 0-60 to 0-70 level, but he's only 4 lbs above his last winning mark, gets the trip, and handles polytrack. Josr's Magic won at Southwell fairly recently off 54, but that was at a lower level, he's up 7 lbs here, and due to drop a 1 lb in the future. Trip and surface suit, but not sure he's up to winning this off 61. Ministerofinterior won a Brighton seller two starts ago but struggled back in a handicap lto. Dropped 2 lbs here but I doubt he's up to winning this. Teasing has been running mostly in claimers and her last win came in a Wolv claimer back in March. Her last handicap win came a year ago, at this level, off 76, and although she's not been running up to that level recently, her last run was encouraging. In a claimer she was stepped up to this trip for the first time and finished a good fourth considering she was giving away lumps of weight to the third and would have been getting plenty of weight from the winner if it had been a handicap. In her run prior to that she ran another very good race finishing 4th at Kempton. She would have been 8 lbs better off with the winner in a handicap and was narrowly beaten in a blanket finish, and she would have been getting plenty more weight from Fremen and Electric Warrior (has won since) in a h'cap too. Danse The Blues has been tonked in handicaps and makes no appeal even after a 3 lb drop in the weights. Special Pearl is an Irish import and may be best watched for now. Verdict Vine Street holds obvious claims but at such a short price I'd prefer to back an each-way alternative. Teasing has done nothing wrong in two recent claimers and seemed to cope with the step up in trip last time out. Sporting Bet go 16/1 so I fancy her EW (1/5 odds), 5 pts EW.

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 6.50 Wolverhampton 7 furlong claimer here with 11 runners left in. The one to beat on these terms is Smalljohn. He is a CD winner and although I got stung at short odds when backing him two runs ago, when Woolston Ferry did him over by 4-lengths, he ran well last time behind Kinigi. This faster surface should suit and I expect him to take all the beating. 6/4 Ppower (BOG) 10 pts win

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread Full reasoning for these bets tonight is in the Wolverhampton thread. 6.50 Megalo Maniac 3/1 Insurebet (3 places) with Bet 365, 10 pts 7.20 Fancy Footsteps 5 pts EW 8/1 Blue Square (1/5 odds) 7.50 Templetouhy Max 8/1 Sporting bet 5 pts EW (1/4 odds, note 1/5 everywhere else) 8.50 Plush 5/2 Insurbet (2 places) with Bet 365, 10 pts 9.20 Royal Amnesty 7/2 Sporting Bet, 10 pts win

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread Just one for today in what is a poor days AW racing. 9.20 Wolverhampton Princess Valernina's best form has come over 6f with her form figures reading 2112 over this trip. Tried in last years 1000 Guineas when with Barry Hills, her mark has been slipping but she finally cashed in in a handicap at Folkestone in October when winning a 0-80 raced off 69. She was upped 3 lbs for her last run, when finishing second to Doubtful Sound, to suggest she acts on the surface. The winner boosted the form by hosing up off 79 when last seen, so I think she is worth a go at the likely price. 6/1 Bet 365, 10 pts win.

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 9.20 Wolverhampton Princess Valernina's best form has come over 6f with her form figures reading 2112 over this trip. Tried in last years 1000 Guineas when with Barry Hills, her mark has been slipping but she finally cashed in in a handicap at Folkestone in October when winning a 0-80 raced off 69. She was upped 3 lbs for her last run, when finishing second to Doubtful Sound, to suggest she acts on the surface. The winner boosted the form by hosing up off 79 when last seen, so I think she is worth a go at the likely price. 6/1 Bet 365 bog, 10 pts win

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 1.50 Southwell This is a race lacking any strength in depth and if handling the surface, Bellomi should win. Won an Epsom handicap off 85 earlier in the summer and won a Newmarket claimer on his last start for William Haggas. Has struggled in two handicaps for current trainer, but dropping back into a claimer here and running off a decent weight should take all the beating. 5/4 Bet 365 (bog).

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread Full reasoning for these in todays Lingfield thread. 12.10 Thoughtsofstardom 11/8 Bet 365 bog 10 pts win 12.40 Smokey Rider 5/4 Bet 365 bog 10 pts win 1.10 Monsieur Fillious 3/1 Bet 365 10 pts win 1.40 Little Edward 5/2 Bet 365 10 pts win 2.10 Rahy's Crown 9/2 SJ 10 pts win 2.40 Surwaki 11/1 SJ 10 pts win 3.40 Joss Stick 2/1 Bet 365 10 pts win

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread A decent weekend makes up for the poor results the last time I updated the thread results.... 8/12 Jonah's Cruising (8th) -10 8/12 Bridgewater Boys (1st) +11.2 (5 % comission deducted) 8/12 Electric Warrior (1st) +25 9/12 Garlogs (4th) -10 9/12 Ronnie Howe (5th) -10 10/12 Black N Brew (4th) -10 11/12 Baan (3rd) -10 11/12 Southandwest (3rd) -10 11/12 Teasing (2nd) +11 12/12 Smalljohn (1st) +15 12/12 Megalo Maniac (8th) -10 12/12 Fancy Footsteps (3rd) +3 12/12 Templetuohy Max (1st) +50 12/12 Plush (1st) +25 12/12 Royal Amnesty (6th) -10 13/12 Princess Valerina (3rd) -10 13/12 Bellomi (4th) -10 14/12 Thoughtsofstardom (1st) +15 14/12 Smokey Rider (1st) +12.5 14/12 Monsieur Fillieux (1st) +30 14/12 Little Edward (1st) +25 14/12 Rahy's Crown (2nd) -10 14/12 Surwaki (8th) -10 14/12 Joss Stick (7th) -10 Overall results Bets to date: 144 + 24 = 168 Strike rate: (inc EW bets that yield profit): 46/168 (27 %) Total pts staked: 1397 + 240 = 1637 Total pts returned: 1427.53 + 332.7 = 1760.23 Overall profit/loss: 30.53 + 92.7 = +123.23 Thread Records Biggest priced winner: Back in the Red, Sofia's Star 16/1 (17/11/08, 30/11/08) Most backed winner: Back in the Red (16/1 advised into 11/1 SP) Longest winning run: 4 (14/12/08) Longest losing run: 15 (1/12/08 - 6/12/08)

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 2.15 Wolverhampton I saw Plush win here on Friday night and he was given a really good ride from 7 lb claimer Ross Atkinson. The jockey seems to have struck up a fine understanding with this animal and they certainly click. For some reason Atkinson doesn't ride today, and Charles Eddery takes over, so for that reason I'm not backing him. Plush isn't the most straightforward as he often breaks badly and because he is held up I think he needs his favoured partner to be put to best effect. However, he is in with a chance based on weight alone, running under a penalty. Hucking Heat is another running under a penalty and won over course and distance last time out in an amateurs handicap. He's effectively running off 73 here though so it is going to take a career best to take this as he's never won off anything above 67. He clearly has a chance and relishes this course and distance but at 4/6 for this handicap? No thanks. Not when others look lively at the weights. The one that caught me eye is Prince Golan, who was 12/1 RPF. That looks massive for the son of 2000 Guineas and King George winner Golan as he should get this trip based up the stamina influence of the sire. This is an animal that was highly thought of when with Kevin Ryan, entering the Coventry Stakes, Racing Post Trophy and the Dante in his younger years. He has since moved on to a new yard and won an apprentices race off 60 in September for today's pilot Alex Edwards. He ran for Edwards last time out too, and they were only narrowly beaten by half a length over course and distance by a well-weighted Bailieborough. Than run confirmed he acts over course and distance and at the expected price he looks a fantastic bet. 9/2 Skybet, 10 pts win

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 5.20 Wolverhampton This looks a wide open race but Machinate would have a chance if having a good day. He's a four time CD winner (three for Liam Jones who rides today) who last won off 63. He's down to 55 today so clearly has a strong chance at the weights. He doesn't bring strong last time out form into the race but then again neither do many others. 11/2 Skybet, 10 pts win.

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 4.20 Wolverhampton This looks a terrible maiden so I'm taking a very hopeful punt on one of the outsiders, Shortwall Lady (66/1 Blue Sq). She has the benefit (if you can call it that) of previous racecourse experience when she trailed home 13/14 at Kempton on her debut, and is priced accordingly today. However, she is entitled to come on for that run and was poorly drawn that day. She's drawn wide again today but the draw bias doesn't matter as much here and the field is only small anyway. She is related to Glan Lady who recently won an AW seller at Southwell and is sired by an unraced brother to multiple grade 1 middle distance winner Beat Hollow. Tolley Dean rides and teamed up with this trainer to score on Glan Lady recently. I don't think any of the opposition look solid. January, Cheney Manor and Fantosha have all had ample opportunities to break their duck and have failed. Son of My Heart is a debutant, and may need the run, so Shortwall Lady is next on the list. 5 pts EW

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 1.10 Southwell Kinigi is proven on this surface and notched up a quick double here in November over course and distance. The form of that last win, recorded in a claimer, has been boosted by Smalljohn, third that day, who won well at Wolverhampton on Friday. Svindal, the second, has also ran credibly since. Kinigi finished 5th in a nursery handicap last time on her first run for Ron Harris but I think she ran respectably all things considered because she was stepping back into a handicap and burdened a 6 lb penalty. She wasn't disgraced finishing fifth and the form of that race has been boosted slightly by the second, Rio Cobolo, who won a nursery next time out earlier this month. Kinigi runs off a mark off 61 here which seems a good weight considering she would be giving more to all bar Calley Ho and Island Chief if this were a handicap. She is infact better off with Island Chief too for this seller and although she's 1 lb wrong with Calley Ho, that is a negligible amount and she is at least reliable at this level and less of a gamble than that rival. 2/1 Bet 365, 10 pts win 1.40 Southwell An interesting claimer here with La Estrella up against the prolific plater Yakimov. La Estrella brings the strongest form of the two into the race, is proven on the surface and has won over this sort of trip before. He is officially rated 88 now, 8 lbs higher than his last win, which he recorded with some field when routing the field by 4 lengths last time out. Is he 8 lbs better now? That is a matter of personal opinion I suppose and if he is then he is best in at the weights as he'd be giving 1 lb less to Ollie Pears' Yakimov in a handicap. It is worth noting that in the aftermath of his last time out win the Racing Post commented that his trainer has reported he has a troublesome fore, and that retirement may be imminent. I'm no vet, so I don't no how serious his problem is, but with things looking very tight on official figures I have marginal preference for the Pears runner. Yakimov loves racing around here and is very reliable in this sort of contest. In my head I have him down as a miler, but he did infact win over course and distance as part of a four timer earlier in the year. He disappointed last time out at Kempton and for that reason he is the larger price of the pair here, however, he was entitled to need that run after a little break and he is much happier on sand than polytrack so I'm quite happy to ignore that last run. Although Yakimov has 1 lb to find with La Estrella on official figures, I don't think he can be written off at all. Up until his last run he was rated 85, and if he was still rated that today he would be the one best off at the weights. He's rated 82 but should strip fitter for that Kempton outing and be capable of getting involved. just incase La Estrella proves too good...... 5/2 coverbet on two places Bet 365, 10 pts. 2.40 Southwell Canadian Danehill remains very well treated, despite a 4 lbs rise for a recent Wolverhampton romp, on the pick of his best form. He won off a 12 lb higher mark in January. Although this is a class 4 contest, very few of these have recently won at this level. Several of these act on the surface and recent runs over the dash have repeatedly been won by front runners so again I think we need to find one with that running style. Garlogs could be the one. I put him up last time and geneuinely thought he had a decent chance. I think he ran a solid race considering he was up 6 lbs above his last winning mark and was racing a class above that in which he was last proven a winner. The handicapper has kept him on 76 for this, but I said last time he would be of interest if dropped back down in grade, and that is the case today. He's proven at this level as a win here in May shows. He tracked the leaders last time but if he is able to do what he does best - make all - then I fancy him here. 7/2 Skybet, 10 pts win

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread

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12.30 Lingfield Sabre Light is in great form at the minute and beat Nawamees last time out over course and distance. Jerry O'Dwyer's mount was receiving 3 lbs from his rival that day and they run on idential terms again so there is little reason to assume David Evans' horse can reverse the form as he seeks to avenge a 1-length defeat last time. Sabre Light is 5 lbs better off with his opponent than if this were a handicap, so can be considered to be running off an ideal weight, and he gets on well with this jockey with two wins from three for him. Zero Cool could also give him something to think about on these terms as he's 3 lbs better off with Sabre Light on BHA figures. Trainer Gary Moore is in form but he was held when splitting the aforementioned pair last time out over CD and even though he's 2 lb better off today I think Sabre Light can repel his advances and land the hat-trick. 3/1 Skybet 10 pts win 2.45 Lingfield At 10/1 I think Wind Flow is worth a blast. He was a course and distance winner last time out in a lower grade seller but has proven himself at this level earlier in his career and he has a fair strike rate over the middle distances. A 2 lb drop in the weighs gives him a chance as he's back down to his last winning mark and he's two from three for Cathy Gannon. 10/1 Bet 365, 10 pts win

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 8.20 Kempton A listed race on a Wednesday night? What's happenining here! Duff was an impressive winner at Lingfield recently and he has been handed a decent draw here to suit his prominent racing style. Mac Love has made good progress under Stef Liddiard, won a listed race over a mile here lto, but also finished second over CD on the prior to that. Atlantic Story won a decent Lingfield handicap last time out and having been put up 5 lbs to 108, runs in a listed race for the first time here. Although he's prolific at Lingfield he has proven himself here too with a hat-trick of wins and he demonstrated lto that the drop back to 7f will not inconvenience in the slightest. Ceremonial Jade was a disappointment last time out for Marco Botti and finished well adrift of Duff. There's no reason to belieive he can reverse the form here running off identical weights. Bonus won this race last year and has been running okay in handicaps. He disappointed lto over CD though and others appeal more. Finicius bids for the four-timer coming over from Ireland. A wind operation seems to have helped him out and he's been in rampant form over a variety of distances at home lately, beating rivals rated 104 and 102 last time out at Dundalk. He's got a very good draw and could go well at a decent EW price. 9/1 Stan James, 5 pts EW (1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 8.50 Kempton Wine 'n Dine is one I added to my notebook before his last run....... Quote:

8.20 Kempton I've laid Silver Regent in this race (see lay thread for full write up) but the one I'll be interested in with a view to backing next time is Wine 'n Dine. The price has now gone on this one, its been smashed all day long, and I don't think it represents value at evens now with so many other dangers in the race. However, the yard seem to do well when there is support for their horses, Action Impact etc, and the market certainly speaks positively about this one. He looks very well handicapped based on the form of his 4th at Newmarket. He was behind General Elliott, who won a conditions race rated 93 NTO, 2nd won a h'cap off 86 since, 5th has won a handicap off 74 and later a decent Ascot race off 87. He begins handicapping off just 72 and if he wins tonight could be low enough to rack up a couple of wins before the handicapper nails him perhaps. A watching brief for me though tonight.

Although he was beaten in that race it wasn't by far, and at these weights he has a decent chance of reversing the form. The price is a little skinny again (15/8 Sporting Bet) but I think he looks unexposed and worth a punt. 10 pts win