Fintron's AW Thread

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread Two from Southwell today, but it looks a poor card there full of wide open races and so halving usual stakes. 1.10 Southwell Time to Regret could be up to taking this and as top-weight is, in theory, the best horse in the race. He's placed here before and even though most of his wins have come on polytrack, he did win recently at Thirsk with some cut in the ground to suggest he should cope okay with fibresand. He runs off a mark of 59 here, which is 4 lbs higher than that win two runs ago, but he has won off 58 on the all-weather before so I don't think it is beyond him. The form of his Wolverhampton second last time out has been boosted by Shunkawakhan (won off 60) and Beetuna (won off 67) since and he may sneak a place in a poor race. 5 pts on the 3 place coverbet (stake back if places) @ 8/1 Bet 365. 2.45 Southwell Another dire affair but one that looks potentially well treated at the weights is Comrade Cotton. John Ryan's gelding has been running quite consistently lately and went down by just a head at Kempton in October off an 8 lb higher mark. The handicapper appears to have been lenient on him since dropping him to 52 for this and he ran into a place last time out behind My Mate Mal, albeit in a seller. He's only got the one career win to his name but it was off 11 lb higher than he's rated today though, and having shown an ability to handle a slow surface I think he is worth a little bet at the price. 5 pts on the 3 place coverbet @ 10/1 Bet 365.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread The last two selections were a mixed bag. Time to Regret bagged a place to win the stake back and Comrade Cotton was always behind and never looked like placing. At Wolverhampton, Smalljohn was beaten fair and square by Woolston Ferry, Pride of Northcare wasn't good enough when ridden into a handy position and asked to quicken and Will He Wish didn't look like the winner. There are several selections running from the notebook today: Veloso, Smarty Socks and One More Round. The first two are of interest although One More Round steps away from Lingfield and is back in handicap company so I'm happy to watch that one today. 12.40 Southwell Veloso is proven over this distance, won well at Great Leighs last time out and was added into the notebook afterwards as a middle distance performer to look out for in future claiming races. This race looks slighlty better than the one he won last time, and Sudden Impulse and La Estrella could give him something to think about on their return from the jumps. However, Veloso has recent winning form which counts for a lot in claimers and if taking to the surface on his fibresand debut, could be the one to beat. 5/2 PPower, 10 pts win. 3.00 Southwell Smarty Socks was impressive when winning here over 7f a few weeks ago and looked very much ahead of the handicapper. He stepped up in class last time out when racing in a big field at Doncaster under a penalty and ran credibly. He was hampered in the closing stages and a 1.62 length defeat in 6th wasn't too bad really. He steps back down in class here and shaped as though a mile would suit when winning over 7 before. He was winning form over a mile from previously in his career anyway and is well in at the weights. I was hoping for a little better price for this one with this race being a handicap, but 15/8 Betfred, is the best on offer, 10 pts win. 3.30 Southwell The race won by Ice Bellini recently was dreadful and although she bids for the hat-trick here after landing a Newcastle maiden on her run before, I'm inclined to oppose at the price. It looks a poor race and one that is wide open IMO. The one that interests me is Jetta Joy, who finished a 2 length third over CD last time out. The 4th, Dart, boosted the form with a win yesterday, off 63, the 2nd had won off 57 going into that race and the winner won off 65, so I think Jetta Joy's rating of 49 looks appealing, especially considering a claimer takes off several pounds more too (whether he is worth the claim entirely I'm not sure). 8/1 Betfred 10 pts win.

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 4.00 Southwell Whitbarrow ran well last time here to take second behind an improving Smarty Socks but I would make him more of a 4/1 than 2/1 chance here. I mentioned Cool Sands previously in the thread for his last run, although didn't advise backing him. He just got up to beat Steel City Boy that day by a small margin and so a 6 lb penalty may prevent a follow up here, although it has to be noted he is racing over his optimum trip. I backed Blakeshall Quest at 40/1 for her last run after she had been given a little break and she came agonisingly close to landing some place money. She kept on well that day and will be fresher for the run. That race was over the minimum distance, but most of her winning has been done over 6f here and she will have no problems stepping back up in trip here. She likes to race prominently and I like that at Southwell. Blue Square go 9/1 and pay 1/5 odds on 3 places, suggested bet 5 pts EW.

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 6.50 One More Round is a horse in my notebook at the minute but I think he favours Lingfield more and is best effective in plating company. He's not raced in a handicap for just over a year now and although he is running off 65 now as opposed to 90 then, I'd rather watch him have a run first to then judge whether he is well treated for his next h'cap run. A wide draw will not inconvenience course and distance winner Feeling Fresh, who has won coming from off the pace, but he may need some help from the assessor as had been well held off 64 in recent runs. Desert Light is another CD winner but he has a little to prove at present. He won off 51 at Kempton earlier in the year and although failed to follow up at that track subsequently, was handed a poor draw. However, he had no such excuse when flopping at Great Leighs and although he may have needed the run when 11/12 at Kempton last time out, he is another probably best watched. The one that ticks the most boxes for me here is Welcome Approach. Daryll Holland's mount won over CD 12 days ago and was racing from 1 lb out of the weights that day. He came from off the pace that day and so his draw here, of stall 9, should not pose any problems. 2 of his 3 previous CD attempts have been successful and dropping in grade from his last run he could take all the beating. 3/1 Ladbrokes, 10 pts win. 7.20 I don't usually bet in maidens but am making an exception here because Ryan Moore travels to Dunstall Park tonight for his only ride of the day. The statistics tell you horses with previous racecourse experience dominate maidens but I think the fact that Rosika is Moore's only ride of the day is equally as informative as he isn't likely to be coming here to admire the scenary. Sir Michael Stoute has a strong record here (14-44) and his runner is handily drawn. 4/1 Sporting Bet 10 pts win. 8.20 This race over 1m 1f 103 yrds is a class 2 race which is unusual for Wolverhampton although most of the horses contesting the £12k prize are usually running in much lower grade events. Clive Brittains Intabih looks for the hat-trick and is a CD winner off a 6 lb lower mark. He leaps from class 5 to class 2 though here and so this is much thougher. Just Bond is another CD winner and although he flopped the other day and has something to prove, he has ditched PJ McDonald, which can only be a positive. His CD record is fantastic but he's never won at this level. Suits Me has been a class 3 regular in recent runs so at least isn't making a huge leap in class here. Tom Tate's gelding won off a 4 lb lower mark last time out at Ayr and although the trip is within his compass, he may favour slower ground perhaps. Hold the Gold is suited to the surface but is another racing out of a grade at which he is proven. New Star is only 3 lbs higher than when winning over CD three runs ago, but like many of these, his CD victory came in a lower grade. Final Verse has been contesting higher class handicaps and ran well last time out when second at Newmarket. A recent win at Kempton proves he will handle the surface and he looks one of the more likely winners. Boo looks interesting at a big price though. A dual CD winner when with Karl Burke, he is at least proven at this sort of level and although he is 5 lbs above his last winning mark, he finished a 0.5 length second off 1 lb lower back in April on his first start for this trainer. He's ran poorly twice since on turf and last time out finished 4/15 in a maiden hurdle at Stratford but there is no denying he is a better animal on the AW and the pick of his AW form has come here. 33/1 looks massive and at that price I'm prepared to have a little nibble in the hope that he hasn't lost all his ability just yet (only 6 yo). 10 pts EW @ 33/1 Bet 365 (1/4 odds on 3 places). 9.20 Laurel Creek looks the most interesting of these runners having finished a close second on her UK debut after coming over from Ireland. She finished half a length behind 82-rated factotum, and had Dance the Star, who had previously won off 75 well back in third. He's let in off a mark of just 65 here and dropping down in class (4 down to 6 here), he will face rivals rated no higher than 65. Bet 365 go 4/1, suggested bet 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Profit/loss from last nights best worked out at bang on 0. Welcome Approach came late as expected but was no match for One More Round, who I mentioned was down to a decent mark (two stone less than his last handicap appearance a year ago), although I left the latter alone as he had been running in claimers. He was the most impressive winner of the night and won going away, but he was in the notebook already. The thing that can be added to the earlier entry is that he is down to a decent mark for handicaps now too. Rosika shaped well on her debut for Sir Michael Stoute, and should come on for the run. Partner Shift ran a solid race under Spencer and looks like he will find a maiden sooner or later. The winner was a 14/1 shock, but stats followers could have picked that out given that he had two previous runs under his belt and he came from a powerful yard. Boo broke well but faded and never looked like winning. I must try avoid backing long-priced outsiders in the future. Just Bond finished well at a big price for Duran Fentiman, and dropped back in grade could be dangerous over that CD again. Laurel Creek won with plenty in hand in the nightcap and goes into the notebook. I mentioned I thought he was down to a decent mark based on his Wolverhampton second on his previous run, and there looks to be a few more wins left in him. I'm gonna keep an eye out for other horses coming over from Ireland with similar profiles, as it seems its hard for the handicapper to rate them and they have a good chance of racking up a sequence before they realise their true mark. Earlier in the day La Estrella comfortably beat Veloso, who had done all of his winning on polytrack. Smarty Socks ran on well in the closing stages in the 3.00 to get the thread its only winner from that meeting. I still think he is ahead of the handicapper and will find a few more races, based on the fact he was running off 85 in Ireland last year, and is way below that now. I was right to oppose the weak favourite Ice Bellini in the 4.00 but picked the wrong horse. It didn't help that the jockey was 8 lbs overweight, but what can you do about that as a punter? I'd made my selection hours before they weighed in and am disappointed with that selection because Jetta's Joy had a form chance and was backed in on the day. Flame Creek was backed in during the day from 16/1 into 8's and ran a big race into second. He's been out of form but maybe he has a race in him soon. Elaala, the winner, was proven on the fibresand before, but it is likely this race was should for fitness purposes to put it spot on for its next jumps race and future AW appearances may be limited. Blakeshall Quest broke well in the final race of the day there but faded out. Perhaps she needs dropping a few lbs and maybe in grade before she finds another win? Whitbarrow stayed on strongly at the end and if he's more of a price next time out I may get involved.

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 6.50 Great Leighs Wreningham is one from the notebook and races over his favoured CD again. His last two wins have come when making all so today's draw in stall 8 may not be ideal. However, he's only up 3 lbs from his last run and drops in grade. Given he has never finished out of the first two here in five starts there is every chance he will get the hat-trick. 7/2 Skybet 10 pts win. 7.50 Great Leighs Mutamared looks to have solid claims for this class 5 claimer. He won well in claiming company at Kempton last time out and came close at this venue before when narrowly behind Desperate Dan. He was running in class 2 handicaps and even a listed race last year for Kevin Ryan and although he was winless last year, the drop back to plating level could have given him a confidence boost after his lto win and he could follow up with a double here. Jamie Spencer has been teaming up well with Ryan on the AW of late, so the jockey booking is another positive. 2/1 Skybet 10 pts win.

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread Two more to add for tonight... 7.20 Great Leighs When a trainer brings his horse all the way over from Ireland for a class 5 handicap worth £3,000, you have to think he has good reason for the trip. Weybridge Light makes his UK debut and arrives here in good form with a win last time out at Tramore. He ran well on the AW at Dundalk and has been in solid form of late. He's rated 57 for this but there is every chance there is plenty more to come, given that he is a lightly raced 3 yo. 5/2 Bet 365, 10 pts win. 8.50 Great Leighs I think the value bet in this race is Prince of Thebes who is 8/1 with Sporting Bet. I thought he would be around the 5/1 - 11/2 mark after winning his last two in this grade so at that price I'm definately getting involved. He won with plenty in hand last time so a 5 lb rise in the handicap seems fair. This does look a tougher race, but he's in good form and contested class 2 handicaps off marks in the high 90's a few years ago, so he clearly has ability. 8/1 Sporting Bet, 10 pts win.

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread Wreningham lost the race in a matter of seconds last night. It was imperitive he broke well from stall 8 as he likes to make all, but he stumbled out the stalls, the jockey tried to take him wide on the outside to get round but gave up and tucked him behind. With hindsight I shouldn't have backed a front runner coming from stall 8, ah well. Mutamared was ridden into a handy position but Openindeed was receiving plenty of weight from the Ryan horse, the jockeys 7l bs claim helped, and he won easily. Weybridge Light won well for Spencer and goes into the notebook as another Irish raider to follow. I've not watched the Prince of Thebes race but he was unplaced, yielding a -5 pt loss for the night. 2.15 Southwell I didn't fancy Mozayada last time out but she absolutely hacked up here over a mile and looks well ahead of the handicapper. She is officially 4 lbs well in, but there is every chance she may be able to win here dropped back to 7f, and then go on to complete a hat-trick, given the manner of her win lto. 5/4 Blue Sq 10 pts win. 6.20 Kempton Yakimov is decent in claimers but I see him very much as a Southwell miler. Bridgewater Boys is the one that I like the look of, as he looks well off at the weights, has finished 1st and 2nd in his last two tries over CD, and won a handicap on the AW at Ling on his last start in October. Ryan Moore booked for a big ride (2-3 on him). 7/2 Paddypower (BOG), 10 pts win. 8.20 Kempton Multakka is one in my notebook following his win at Great Leighs lto. We know he can win going right-handed too as he is also a CD winner here from his previous run. His AW form figures of 32111, but he has more on his plate here, 5 lbs above his highest career winning mark, and leaping up from class 4 to class 2 company. Commander Cave looks the main danger, coming from a good draw, and as a proven class 2 and CD winner. He is up lb from his last run when beaten half a length at Lingfield, but looks more open to improvement than the likes of Samarinda and Kay Gee Bee who have struggled off their current marks. Murfreesboro isn't without hope following his neck second to Russki recently, but he isn't ideally drawn. Councellor acts on the surface but is another stepping up in class, Dingaan is consistent but has stamina to prove and Countdown too is unproven beyond 7f. Multakka 10 pt win 10/3 Skybet. 1 pt SF Commander Cave to beat Multakka 11.45 Bet 365 1 pt SF Multakka to beat Commander Cave 12.11 Bet 365. 9.20 Kempton Tubby Isaacs is open to plenty of improvement and has some impressive AW form, including a CD win here in September. He disappointed last time out on turf but is only 7 lbs above his last winning mark and we know he goes well on polytrack. He could have been handed a better draw, but he's won from stall 2 before so stall 6 should be okay here. 9/4 Bet 365, 10 pts win

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 2.10 Kempton Stand Guard has dotted up on his last two runs and his 12 lb rise was inevitable after making mincemeat of the opposition in 0-55 and 0-60 races in his last two. He is upped in class now but has looked better than a run-of-the-mill class 6 middle distance performer and is worth a punt even in better company here IMO. 11/4 Skybet 10 pts win. 4.10 Kempton There was much to like about the way One More Round won last time out at Wolverhampton. I backed Welcome Approach in that race and said that I was passing over One More Round, despite the fact he was in my all-weather notebook, because I wanted to see how he performed back in handicaps, given that he had been doing his winning in claimers, even though he was potentially running off a decent mark. Well, he ran out an impressive winner and won going away that day, recording his highest speed figure for some time in the process. He even brought a chuckle from Tommo, calling them home, as he crossed the line! That was his debut run for David Evans after being claimed out of Ollie Pears' yard in October after finishing third behind Trimelstown at Lingfield. He wasn't a bad little horse in his heyday, contesting class 2 sprints for Dermot Weld in Ireland before joining Nick Littmoden in the UK, and it was somewhat inevitable at his age - he's now 10 - that he would have to be dropped down into claimers, as he was looking exposed running off marks in the 90's last November. His record at plating level on the all-weather is admirable given that on nine of his eleven starts for Pears he finished in the first three. However, current connections decided to step him back up into handicap company last time out following some leniency from the handicapper, and he was running off 65 at Dunstall Park five days ago. He showed a good turn of foot at the death to take the honours and racing in another class 6 handicap here he is too dangerous to dismiss. Although that previous handicap win came over six furlongs he has proven his effectiveness over 7f at Lingfield and Wolverhampton previously, and the only slightly doubt is whether he is suited to the course; its hard to tell given that he has only raced once here, from a poor draw, and never got involved. However, given the manner of his Wolverhampton win, where he didn't get the clearest of passages and had it all to do two furlongs out, and his record on the all-weather I think he's worth chancing because, on his old handicap rating, he could still be potentially well treated, even under a penalty here. 3/1 Ladbrokes, 10 pts win.

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 3.40 Kempton I'm going to take a chance on one of the outsiders here at a big price, Back in the Red. The thing that caught my attention about him was that he is now 12 lbs lower than his last winning mark and he also has a handy draw in stall 10 for this 6 furlong sprint. Ron Harris' charge's last win came a year ago, and even though he hasn't won in thirteen runs since, there is no getting away from the fact he is down to a potentially decent mark. His other career wins have come of 56, 58 and 64, so todays rating of 58 should be within his capabilities. Blinkers replace the cheekpieces worn last time out so could make a difference and as previously stated, his draw his ideal here if he decides to make all (he has won both being held up and making all previously). 16/1 Ladbrokes, 5 pts EW.

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread Results Update We had some good winners today. Stand Guard successfully negotiated a step up in class in the 2.10 and Back in the Red won at 16/1, quite ironically, to put the thread back in profit. One More Round disappointed in a freak of a race in the 4.10 in which two of the first three home were 33/1 :eek. 9/11 Colangnik (3rd) +1.5 pt profit (11.5 pts returned) 10/11 Smalljohn (2nd) -10 pts 10/11 Pride of Nothcare (6th) -10 pts 10/11 Will He Wish (6th) -10 pts 10/11 Time to Regret (3rd) - 0 pts (5 pts returned) 10/11 Comrade Cotton (7th) -5 pts 12/11 Veloso (2nd) -10 pts 12/11 Smarty Socks (1st) +18.75 pts (28.75 pts returned) 12/11 Jetta Joy (5th) -10 pts 12/11 Blakeshall Quest (6th) -10 pts 12/11 Welcome Approach (4th) -10 pts 12/11 Rosika (3rd) -10 pts 12/11 Boo (10th) -20 pts 12/11 Laurel Creek (1st) +40 pts (50 pts returned) 13/11 Wreningham (9th) -10 pts 13/11 Mutamared (3rd) -10 pts 13/11 Weybridge Light (1st) +25 pts (35 pts returned) 13/11 Prince of Thebes (8th) -10 pts 14/11 Mozyada (1st) +12.5 pts (22.5 pts returned) 14/11 Bridgewater Boys (5th) -10 pts 14/11 Multakka (5th) -10 pts 14/11 Reverse Forecast (lost) -2 pts 14/11 Tubby Isaacs (2nd) -10 pts 17/11 Stand Guard (1st) +27.5 pts (37.5 pts returned) 17/11 Back in the Red (1st) +96 pts (106 pts returned) 17/11 One More Round (8th) -10 pts Results Update Bets to date: 83 Strike rate: 22/83 (27 %) Total Pts staked: 535 + 252 = 787 Total Pts returned: 496.9 + 296.25 = 793.15 Profit/loss: +6.15 Thread Records Biggest priced winner: Back in the Red 16/1 (17/11/08) Most backed winner: Back in the Red (16/1 advised into 11/1 SP) Longest winning run: 3 (30/10/08) Longest losing run: 7 (22/10/08 - 23/10/08)

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 1.50 Rio Cobolo struck up a winning partnership with Chris Catlin at Nottingham last time out and I expect them to complete a double here. Unsurprisingly, this son of Captain Rio prefers a slow surface, which was evident when he scored on heavy ground last time out, and he looks to be on a decent mark running off 57 here. He's 6 lb higher than his last win, but racing at class 6 level again it is within the realms of possibility that he can find the necessary improvement required to take this. At Nottingham he had Lisburn five lengths back in third and that rival picked up a nursery off 71 earlier in the year. Cocktail Party was a further neck back in 4th and was running well of marks in the 50's including a win off 57, a few months ago. With that in mind, Rio Cobolo could have every chance running off 56 here. Someone clearly likes something about this animal as he has been very well backed on two runs in his career - 11/1 into 4/1 at Ripon and 33/1 into 12/1 at Warwick. I think he's worth a little EW punt at 11/2 Bet 365. 5 pts EW

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 2.50 Southwell Dado Mush is a massive price, and although goes well here, has a little to prove after disappointing efforts of late. a 4 lb drop in the handicap could help though. This looks an interesting little race, not least because the favourite is an Irish raider with no placings in its previous form. Laurel Creek and Weybridge Light have comes across the Irish Sea to land AW prizes in the past couple of weeks and David Wachman's Crystal Crown will be hoping to follow suit here. He finished behind Mores Wells on his Leopardstown debut but that rival has won pattern races since, the 2nd just won off 94 in Ireland, the 3rd has won off 106 since, and the 4th has won a couple of hurdles races since joining Dermot Weld. Then finished behind Mahler, but had Adare Manor behind whose won off 66 since, so could be well handicapped here rated 72. Recent run at Navan may have blown away few cobwebs. Hopefully the market has got him right. 9 pts win Crystal Crown @ 5/2 Paddypower BOG. 1 pt win Dado Mush @ 12/1 Hills BOG.

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread A bit late........ 3.50 Southwell Bonny Bright Eyes has shown promise in maidens, and was only a couple of lengths off Brandane at Haydock. That rival has won its last two off 51 and 55. At Catterick she was behind a useful pair in Shady Gloom (a neck second off 79 in a h'cap shortly after) and a Paul Nicholls Hurdler, Art Trend. Bonny Bright Eyes is rated 46 for this. She has the potential to improve as she's lighlty raced and although racing from 5 lbs out of the handicap, Kelly Harrison claims 5 lbs to give her an outsider chance. 50/1 Bet 365, suggested bet 5 pt EW.

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 9.20 Kempton Silah is expected to be all the rage for the nightcap but the one that appeals at a bigger price is course and distance specialist Dvinsky. I put him up in the thread last time when he was third over 7f, but this drop back in trip heightens his chances here given that 80 % of his ten career wins have been over 6f (five have been over CD). The last of those victories came two runs ago, in this grade, off 77. Today he runs off 80, so it is quite possible he can find the improvement required to take this. His tactics are well advertised - with blinkers fitted, running from stall 8 of 12 (which is a decent draw) he'll try make all. 5/1 Paddypower (BOG), suggested bet 10 pts win.

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 6.50 The four that drew my attention were last time out winners Fast Freddie and Sands Crooner and also two that are dropping in the weights that could be potentially well treated, Ten Down and Northern Empire. Fast Freddie overcame a wide draw to win at Wolverhampton last time out and runs over the same trip and in the same grade under a penalty here. In his favour, he has been dealt a much better draw here than last time and having won by 3.75 lengths last time, a penalty may not necessarily stop him. He is versatile with regards to tactics as he's won from the front for his last couple of wins, but was held up at Lingfield earlier in his career and won then too. However, the 9/4 price is a little offputting given that he's 6 lbs above his last winning mark. Sands Crooner produced a fantastic performance to score at Wolverhampton last time out. He was in the rear in the opening stages but picked them off one by one with a late burst and had today's opponent Silvanus behind. Like Fast Freddie, he shoulders a 6 lb penalty here so is now 6 lbs above his last winning mark and he may be vulnerable. He likes to come from off the pace though and if the likes of Billy Red and Ten Down jostle for the lead then he may pick them off late on. You could take a chance on him at 9/1 with Queally in the saddle again. Ten Down isn't a bad little all-weather horse really and this 3 yo has notched up five of his six victories on polytrack. His best form came when with Jamie Osbourne, who managed to win with him off marks up to 78, but he lost his way a little with Gay Kelleway and after winning on their debut run in April this year, failed to follow up in seven subsequent tries. He makes his debut for Micky Quinn tonight though, and switched back to polytrack he is potentially down to an attractive mark running off 72 - 10 lbs lower than when he ran here in May. He will attempt to make all, so his draw in stall 4 is good, but there is a slight concern that he hasn't run for 81 days and the presence of Billy Red in the line up, who made all when winning over 6f here recently, means he will not get an uncontested lead. It is quite possible the pair could set this up for a fast finisher. Northern Empire goes for Kevin Ryan with sand king Neil Callan taking the ride. He hasn't won since January when scoring at Kempton off 85 in a higher grade than this, so he is potentially dangerous running off 72 here after another 4 lbs drop in the weights than from his last run, when 8th of 9 in a class 3 handicap at Southwell. He is drawn in stall 11 but that is not a massive worry. Although he made all when picking up his maiden at Windsor, he was a class above those rivals, and his way of running in his two subsequent wins suggest he doesn't necessarily have to race prominelty. When he won at Southwell the RP said he "missed a beat at the start, but picked up well entering the last and got on top when it mattered." Furthermore, at Kempton, he hit the front 1 furlong out and the RP form reader commented "the way he carried his head high suggested being in front was not possibly to his liking." He cannot be discounted running off such a low mark and it is worth noting that although he hasn't won for some time he has been running in class 2 handicaps worht £10-31k this summer. Tonight he's running in a class 5 race (first time since he won his maiden) worth just £3k to the winner and at 20/1 William Hill (BOG) I'm happy to have a little go. Suggested bets: 5 pts win Northern Empire @ 20/1 Hills (BOG) 5 pts win Sands Crooner @ 8/1 Bet 365 (BOG)

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 7.20 Great Leighs Irish Peal and Harlech Castle do battle again after finishing first and second at Southwell recently. Both run in the same grade here but are running off higher weights. Irish Pearl has a penalty and must prove herself on polytrack. Harlech Castle does at least have one previous good run on the surface under his belt, but he no longer benefits from David Probert's 5 lb claim and he's 6 lb above his highest ever winning mark now so I am inclined to oppose. Lone Wolfe remains in decent form on the polytrack. Ideally, he would like an uncontested lead, and he's finished in the frame off his current mark of 87 a few times lately. He ran well over CD recently when 3rd behind Beat the Bell, but is not certain to get an uncontested lead. Irish Pearl and Epic Odyssey are two that could battle with him. Cape is down to a decent mark (won off 88 on turf before) but is yet to prove herself on the surface and Tartatartufata hasn't been the same since he switched yards. The one that I'm prepared to take a chance with here is Fyodor. Conor Dore had a winner yesterday with Desert Opal and Fyodor is potentially well-treated running off 95 as he's won off 98 on the all-weather in the past and is only 3 lbs higher than when winning at Haydock in May. He ran over this trip in this grade last time out at Wolverhampton and finished a 2-length 3rd behind a progressive-looking and inform Arganil, and is turned out quickly here. 10 pts win @ 8/1 Bet 365 (BOG).

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 8.50 I posted Kaolak up last time.......

Yarmouth 3.10 Kaolak finished fourth in a red hot Newmarket maiden on his debut and could be in with a shout now he’s got that experience under his belt. The form of that race couldn’t have worked out any better with the second (Palavicini) third (Four Winds) and seventh (Take the Micky) all picking up maidens since. The other interesting thing is that he had Crowded House well behind that day and Brian Meehan’s colt absolutely hosed up at Doncaster at the weekend and shaped like a possible Derby contender for next year (was slashed in the ante-post Guineas and Derby markets after that race). The step up in trip is in line with his breeding and although its not certain he will act with cut in the ground, a chance is taken at the price.

Well it was a bad call to back him that day, as he was 9th, but I'm hoping that his performance can be explained by the ground, given his US pedigree. He looks to have been found an ideal opportunity to claim a maiden win here - it is a class 5 affair and he should appreciate the return to a quicker surface. 13/2 Hills (BOG) 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 9.20 Great Leighs Bluejain appreciated the step up to a mile and a quarter last time out when beaten by a length into second, and although he is now 10 lbs higher than his last win, he is open to possible improvement. Awatuki is back down to a winning mark but has to put a disappointing effort last time out at Lingfield behind him. Premier Danseur could have a slight chance, given that he is only 1 lb higher than when recording his last win. Mark Johnston's colt won over a mile at Pontefract off 79, but is not certain to stay this far though. He's tried this trip once, and finished last of 11 at Yarmouth. Prince of Light is Johnston's second runner in the race and he is 5 lb lower than when winning a York nursery several years ago. He's tasted success in a Group 3 and a listed race since then, but has dropped down to this level twice in his last three runs and failed to take advantage of his dwindling mark. Yankee Storm is 5 lb above his last winning mark, so a win isn't necessarily behond him here, but he has a break to overcome and stamina to prove. So, the one I'm taking a punt on is 8/1 shot Folio. Willie Musson's gelding is very hit and miss and rarely puts decent back to back runs together, but he has been given a chance by the handicapper running off 71 here. He was a course and distance winner off 5 lb higher back in April. There was little to seperate him from Prince of Light when they clashed over CD recently although his last effort at Leciester was nothing to write home about, consistency does not seem to be his strong point. Chris Catlin takes the ride and at 10/1 (Lads), I'm prepared to have a go. 5 pts EW

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 6.20 <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Wolverhampton At the weights the ones that drew my attention were One More Round and Bishopbriggs, both racing off the same mark as from their last win, and two that are potentially well treated on the pick of their form are Caustic Wit and Nautical. Richelieu is another that could have claims based on weight alone - he's only 4 lb higher than from when recording his win at Laytown. One More Round is one in my notebook. He came flying home over course and distance two runs ago to score on his debut for David Evans, but he failed to follow up and flopped last time out at Kempton when stepped up to 6f running under a penalty. He goes off 65 today so is 27 lbs lower than his highest ever winning mark and is running off the same mark as when he won here recently. Matthew Lawson (who rode a winner last night at Great Leighs) also claims 5 lbs to give him a chance. The problem facing punters in this race is deciding whether the race is likely to be run at a good pace. There is a lack of front runners in the line-up and Bishopbriggs, who made all to win here back in June, has a poor draw and is not certain to get an uncontested lead. Even if he does break well and hit the rail early, he will have wasted energy in the opening stages and could be looking vulnerable late on. It is worth noting that he was drawn in a similar position when second here recently, but aside from Bishopbriggs, this race looks very much like Newcastle United - it has leadership issues, and I'm looking for one that possesses a turn of foot to win the race late on. One More Round displayed such a quality over course and distance two runs ago and for that reason is my pick here. Richeliu's past course form tempers enthusiasm despite a handy looking mark. Caustic Wit is a staggering 37 lbs lower than his highest ever winning handicap mark, but he's finished unplaced off 57 and 56 lately and even a further 1 lb drop in the handicap isn't certain to bring about improvement for this 33/1 shot. Nautical has won off 14 lbs higher previously in his career and is only 1 lb above his last winning mark, but he has something to prove after finishing 10th in recent starts off 60 and 58. One More Round 5/2 Bet >365, 10 pts win. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

7.20 Wolverhampton The interesting ones at the weights are Blue >Hills, Irish Ballad, Rahy's Crown and Reminiscent. Blue >Hills won over CD in March off 64 and is 4 lbs lower here. His third behind Cumbrain Knight at Southwell last time out was a respectable effort and he is now 7 lbs lower than when he disappointed on his last polytrack start here. Irish Ballad is another CD winner, although his CD win came back in Oct '06. He brings winning form to the table though having won at Lingfield last time out by a nose over 2 miles. He's up 3 lbs from that win but has won off his current mark of 52 previously. Rahy's Crown has disappointed on his last two polytrack starts but prior to that had won off a 12 lb higher mark at Lingfield. He hasn't had much racing really and could strike again off this sort of mark, but he's got something to prove after trailing home last at Lingfield last time out. Reminiscent is an interesting runner and Joe Fanning's mount, although racing from 1 lb out of the handicap, won off 63 several years ago and even in January last year won off 52, so isn't too badly treated running off 45 (+1 lb). He's finished fourth on each of his last three starts here, which is better than some of these, and the Spotlight in the RP says he won an Arab race in June, so he is fitter than the racecard probably indicates. 25/1 Bet >365, 5 pts EW (1/4 odds 3 places).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 8.50 Wolverhampton The best race on the card and it has attracted several decent runners. The ones that stand out at the weights are Press The Button, Millville, Birkside, King's Head, Sgt Schultze, and Profit's Reality. Keene's Day is the fav but leaps in class and is 7 lbs above his last winning mark. At the price I feel he's worth opposing. Press The Button, in contrast, is running off 83, which he won off at Kempton last time out and in fact, he has won off 2 lb higher in the past too. The RP commented after his last win that he was likely to be given a break and brought back in the new year, but the £12k carrot on offer here for the winner obviously made connections have a re-think. He is stepping up two classes from his last win though. Millville shoulders top-weight for this but that is no bad thing as he is used to lumbering big weights on his back. Michael Jarvis' gelding won over course and distance in February this year off 106 and he is only 1 lb higher here. Although his last appearance came on turf at Nottingham 212 days ago, he has proven in the past he can go well fresh, and he can be a major player here. Birkside is another taking a leap in class for this, but he won a class 4 handicap off 2 lb lower at York earlier in the year and has previously proven he acts on this surface. King's Head is only 4 lbs higher than his highest ever winning mark, but that win came at Sandown several years ago and he has been running over the jumps more of late. Sgt Schultze, is only 3 lbs higher than when winning a class 3 handicap at Lingfield in March. At least he is proven at a higher level than some of these and can go well fresh, but his last few efforts at the end of the turf season were questionable. Profit's Reality is only 4 lbs higher than his last winning mark at Newmarket in June, but he has something to prove after disappointing turf efforts subsequently. Millville 7/1 Ladbrokes, 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 9.20 Wolverhampton 12 now line up for this class 5 handicap over the extended mile to bring the card to a close. Morbick, Rydale Ovation, Blues Minor, Stark Contrast, Davenport and Maximum Aurelius look to have claims based on official ratings alone. All of Morbick's eleven last starts have been around this trip here and the last of his wins came in an apprentices handicap off just a 2 lb lower mark. He was racing in a higher grade when second to Spinning here last time out to show he is in good heart and has been given a reasonable draw to suit his prominent racing style. Rydale Ovation is 4 lbs higher than when winning at Kempton recently but has won off a higher mark in the past. His improved recent efforts have come over a longer trip though and he is yet to run at Dunstall Park so there is no guarantee he goes well here. Blues Minor is only 4 lbs higher than when winning over CD in a lower grade last time out. His experience of the all-weather is limited, but he seems to act on it, and the fitting of headgear did the trick last time. He has been handed a poor draw though here for one that likes to race prominently. Stark Contrast was a CD winner in this grade last time out and is only up 3 lbs for that win here. He's only 2 lbs above his highest ever winning mark too, and he actually won from 4 lbs out of the handicap last time. He ran well for this claiming jockey before here although he could have perhaps hoped for a better draw. Davenport looks well-treated running off 70 as he's won off 79 in the past and won off his current mark of 70, in this grade, at Goodwood in May. Although he has never won at the course before a string of placed efforts suggest he does act on the surface. His profile suggests he may need this run though, returning from a 121 day break. Maximum Aurelius is 4 lbs lower than when winning at Catterick last year, and although ran a good second off his current mark at Chester in June, has disappointed twice since and has something to prove. All in all I think Morbick looks the most likely winner and he looks to tick more boxes than the others. 4/1 Ladbrokes, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 3.50 Lingfield Ceremonial Jade - smart AW performer that is well worth a crack at this level having run away with a conditions race at Great Leighs last time out. He had Asset, a good listed yardstick, back in second and looks ready to plunder his first listed prize. Has a decent course record, trainer Marco Botti is in form, ticks most of the boxes and the withdrawl of Chief Editor means one less danger in the field. 9/4 Boylesports (BOG) 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread These 3 from Wolv tonight..... 6.50 Wilkandoo looks well in at the weights, has been running respectably in handicaps and takes a drop in grade here for this claimer. 9/2 Lads, 10 pts win 7.50 Doncosaque looks well in at the weights and won a claimer at Great Leighs last time so comes here in good form. Should get the trip as was only defeated by 0.75 l over CD in a maiden. 4/5 Lads, 10 pts win 9.20 Royal Challenge is a CD winner who bumped into a useful sort in Beat The Bell (rated 92) last time out. He runs off 73 again here (4 lbs higher than last winning mark) and should give a good account at a decent price. 4/1 Sporting Bet, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Results Update 18/11 Rio Cobolo (2nd) +1.88 pts (11.88 pts returned)<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

18/11 Dado Mush (6th)/Crystal Crown (3rd) -10 pts

18/11 Bonny Bright Eyes (14th) -10

19/11 Dvinsky (3rd) -10

20/11 Sands Crooner (5th)/Northern Empire (10th) -10 pts

20/11 Fyodor (1st) +80 pts (90 pts returned)

20/11 Kaolak (3rd) -10

20/11 Folio (2nd) +5 pts (15 pts returned)

21/11 One More Round (7th) -10

21/11 Reminiscent (9th) -10

21/11 <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Millville (1st) +70 pts (80 pts returned)

21/11 Morbick (3rd) -10

22/11 Ceremonial Jade (6th) -10

22/11 Wilkandoo (3rd) -10

22/11 Doncosaque (1st) +8 pts (18 pts returned)

22/11 Royal Challenge (9th) -10 Results Bets to date: 99 Strike rate (inc EW bets that yield profit): 27/99 (27 %) Total Pts staked: 787 + 160 = 947 Total Pts returned: 793.15 + 214.88 = 1008.03 Profit/loss: +61.03 Thread Records Biggest priced winner: Back in the Red 16/1 (17/11/08) Most backed winner: Back in the Red (16/1 advised into 11/1 SP) Longest winning run: 3 (30/10/08) Longest losing run: 7 (22/10/08 - 23/10/08)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 1.00 Lingfield This handicap looks wide open. Luca Cumani sends out Motivated Choice but on his handicap debut he may be worth opposing. He runs off 67 here, and just to put that into some sort of context, he was over 4 lengths behind Chelsea Girl in a Folkestone maiden, and she won a handicap off 60 subsequently. Anne of Kiev was a couple of lengths further infront and placed off a mark of 79. He could have a chance, but I'd rather go on one with more handicapping history. Plenty make some appeal at the weights. Cativo Cavallino, Bookiesindex Boy, Lieutenant Pigeon and Forest Dane have all won off stiffer marks in handicaps in the past - 2 lbs, 3 lbs, 2 lbs and 7 lbs respectively. There are also several lurking only a few pounds above their last winning mark - The Cayterers (+2 lb), Grand Palace (+4 lb), Mafaheem (+3 lb) and Lord Deevert (+3 lb). Chijmes is back down to his winning mark and is another to be considered. Chijmes is capable of winning at this level and he ran well enough last time at Wolverhampton where he was continually denied a clear run in the straight. He won over course and distance in July and although has failed to follow up since, he is dropping back down in the handicap and is back down to 70 (which he won off last time) here. Liam Keniry rode a decent winner for Conor Dore the other day in Fyodor, and at 8/1 I think they may be worth chancing again here. Lord Deevert also looks a decent price at 13/2. He did ever so well to win over CD in October, coming over from the widest draw to dictate the pace and hang on to score off 62. He wasn't disgraced off his current mark of 65 last time. Again, he was handed a poor draw, but navigated himself into 3rd, and he arrives here with some of the best form in the race. With a much better draw today he could be in the shake up. Suggested bets: 5 pts win Chijmes @ 8/1 Bet 365 5 pts win Lord Deevert @ 13/2 Skybet

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 1.30 Lingfield Monkey Glas would be giving 13 lbs to Desert Dreamer if this was a handicap, and running off level weights for this claimer, the former should take all the beating here. He's ran well at the course previously, and has some decent pieces of AW form in good handicaps including a 3rd to Jack Sullivan over a mile here in February, a race in which he had Bahiano behind, and that rival ran well here on Saturday and looks open to improvement. He then finished 3rd to the useful AW horse Atlantic Story and Gallantry, who goes later on here today, and that ranks as a good piece of form as he had Ceremonial Jade behind that day over course and distance. He won a £9k handicap at Wolverhampton off 90 in March and although he has disappointed twice since in handicaps off 95 and 93, he has an obvious chance here at these weights. 6/4 Bet 365 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 3.05 Lingfield Quite a few have claims in this class 4 handicap over a mile but the one I like the look of is Gallantry. Paul Howling's runner is only 2 lbs higher than when winning here in October and the form of that race has worked out well with Commander Cave (2nd) winning next time out off 95 and Secret Night (4th) running a decent second behind Romany Princess in one of the Scoop 6 races here on Saturday. Although he does most of his racing over 7f he did record a course and distance win last February, and has the ability to take this 0-85 race off the ceiling rating. I took 7's last night but that has now gone. The best price on offer and for profit purposes for the thread is 11/2 Sporting Bet. 10 pts win. 10 pts win

[RussP]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

3.05 Lingfield Quite a few have claims in this class 4 handicap over a mile but the one I like the look of is Gallantry. Paul Howling's runner is only 2 lbs higher than when winning here in October and the form of that race has worked out well with Commander Cave (2nd) winning next time out off 95 and Secret Night (4th) running a decent second behind Romany Princess in one of the Scoop 6 races here on Saturday. Although he does most of his racing over 7f he did record a course and distance win last February, and has the ability to take this 0-85 race off the ceiling rating. I took 7's last night but that has now gone. The best price on offer and for profit purposes for the thread is 11/2 Sporting Bet. 10 pts win. 10 pts win

Fin, Good luck with this. I had a long look at this race last night and, having originally looked at Dichoh, I swayed towards this having been dropped 4lb from lto when never getting a run. The 8's on offer last night with Bet365 looked a super bet and I was nearly on, but the trip puts me off. Yes, it has won over 1m but feel it has struggled to stay the trip recently. Over a furlong shorter, I'd have made this horse clear fav, probably around the 3/1 mark, but just question its chances over this trip. Another I feel is overpriced but may just prefer shorter is The Kiddykid, who goes really well round a left hand track. Could go well at an EW price of 16/1. I won't be betting in this race so hope Gallantry does the business for you, just thought I'd pass on my opinion. Good luck mate:ok

[chrislloyd2001uk]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread just want to say well done mate....looked all doom and gloom for a while but back in profit now!!! good lad