Fintron's AW Thread

[fintron]

Seeing Russ start his own AW thread has spurred me into action to start my own. A while ago I did a little bit of research into AW racing with a view to starting a thread, but over the summer the flat meetings obviously take over and us AW addicts were mainly restricted to the Wednesday meeting at Kempton and the usual Saturday meeting at Wolverhampton so I saw little point. Looking at the Sporting Life calendar it seems the AW meetings will be coming thick and fast now though, so now seems a good time to start a thread. When I finished my research before I popped a few graphs and bits of info up on here so I won't post all those up again, instead I'll just skim through the findings.... Importance of Market Position in all-weather handicaps I gathered results from 319 AW handicaps from all five AW UK courses - Kempton, Southwell, Lingfield, Wolverhampton and Great Leighs - and combined all the results together for the purposes of analysis. Findings: favourites had a success rate of 31 % in the handicaps studied (in non-handicaps the win percentage was almost double this!). The field size did not seem to effect the success rate of favourites. I wondered whether favourites may fare better in smaller fields when their true probability of winning was increased, but infact the winning percentage dropped, (29 %) albeit by a negligable amount. Thus I concluded that field size did not effect the chance of favourites winning. The market in general does seem a fair predictor of success, and in the sample of 319 races, 64 % of winners came from in the first four in the betting. I concluded that it was best to concentrate on the first four in the betting. Importance of position in the weights in all-weather handicaps Following on from the research of David Duncan in Horse Racing and Betting Systems I wanted to see whether horses at the head of the weights did indeed outperform horses from the bottom of the weights - as his research indicated. Unlike Duncan, however, I excluded any races with less than ten runners from my analysis because if I had included races with only six runners, for example, it would have been inevitable that a lot of races would be won by a horse from the first five in the weights (as Duncan concluded). I ignored any apprentices allowances as in many cases apprentices aren't always worth every 1 lb of their claim. Findings: Top-weighted animals fare very well in AW handicaps and win just under a fifth of races. Those animals at the bottom of the handicap have a much lower win percentage than those carrying more weight. To me, this made sense, because the horses carrying more weight have higher official ratings and are thus the best horses in the races. Although the principle of handicapping is to give every horse and equal chance of winning by making the top horses carry extra weight, it seems that in practice every horse is not equal and it is best to back horses at the top of the handicap. SP of AW handicap winners As you would expect, the SP's of handicap winners was wide ranging but it seems that it is best to avoid backing short price favourites in handicaps. Because favourites have a low success rate (almost half of that of favourites in non-handicaps) there is little value in backing horses less than 5/2 in the long run. 4/1 seemed to be a price that cropped up quite often (8.2 % of 319 winners). 7/2 (6.3 %) and 8/1 (6 %) came up quite a few times too. I concluded that it may be best to focus on horses priced between 5/2 and 8/1 to acheive long-term profits. Analysis of form figures in handicaps It makes sense to follow horses that are in form but I was quite surprised when the results showed that only 39 % of 319 handicap winners had posted a win in their last three runs. Further still, only 47 % of winners had finished in the last three on their last run. Put another way, just because a horse won or made the frame last time out does not make it anymore likely to win its next race! From this I concluded that you should not be put off by a horses form figures, and that you need to delve more closely into its form. Did it have a poor draw last time out? Was it in the grips of the handicapper? If it ran in a sprint, did it finish 4th, but in a blanket finish? has the horse been faring poorly on turf on recent outings and if it has, did it have a good history on the AW before that could make it overpriced for its current race? Is it dropping in class? Analysis of all-weather maidens 54 % of 100 maiden races analysed were won by favourites and 86 % were won by a horse from the first three in the betting. 85 % of maiden winners had previous racecourse experience. Thus, when betting on maidens it is best to ignore newcomers, no matter how good their trainer is, and concentrate on those at the head of the market. A horse may have been unplaced on its debut but providing it has at least one run under its belt it can at least come on for that experience. I'll leave it at that for now as all that info probably bores people to death (if you are still with me!?), but in the next post when I get chance I will post details of draw biases I found and list the trainers and jockeys that seemed to do best on the AW. Fin

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread I can't seem to find the spreadsheet with the draw biases so will have to put them up later. Anyway, the first bet for the thread is from the 4.20 today at Wolverhampton. Pegasus Dancer is one of Kevin Ryan's and may be able to provide Neil Callan with a much needed winner. The king of the sand has ridden only two winners from 49 rides in the last two weeks but in that time he has been sat on a lot of outsiders. His mount is a son of Danehill Dancer who has been running in sellers and claimers recently. Although he steps back into handicaps today, this is only a class 6 affair, and so the standard of racing isn't really much higher. The last time he won a handicap was in December when he won off a mark of 67, and he is 6 lbs lower here. He likes to race prominently so his draw in stall 6 shouldn't pose any great problems and given he has one of the best top-speed ratings in the field I think he may be able to make a bold bid from the front and at least manage a place. Although he hasn't won here before, he has run respectably on previous outings at Dunstall Park and I'll take my chance each-way. Stan James go 13/2 (BOG) and pay 1/4 odds on 3 places so the suggested bet is 5 pts EW.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Didn't get off to the best of starts - got done by a top weight horse! Next bet comes from the last race on the card at Kempton. 5.10 Kempton Artistic Licence - Mick Channon's filly has been in decent form of late with recent wins at Lingfield and Great Leighs. Although she disappointed when she ran here before her position in stall 2 wouldn't have helped and she has a better draw in stall 7 today. She drops in class here and no longer has a penalty on her back so even though she is up 5 lbs from her last winning mark she may have a chance. Heavy ground may not have been in her favour last time so a return to a faster surface should suit. Sporting Bet go 6/1 and pay 1/5 odds on 3 places so the suggested bet is 5 pts EW.

[TheRat]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Good luck with it Fin :clap

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Cheers Rat. Tomorrow Lingfield and Kempton are staging meetings so here are the draw info for those two courses Kempton (aw) Pic taken from RP site. Raceform's description of Kempton: "a high draw is a big advantage over 5f (inner bend) and 6f (outer bend) with both starts about the same distance from the first right hand turn. A high draw still an advantage over 7f but becomes less significant over further. Stalls go on the inside rail (high)". Trainers that have done particularly well there this year are Richard Hannon, Gary Moore and Marco Botti. George Baker, Richard Hughes and Jim Crowley are the jockeys with good records in 2008. For draw analysis I gathered the complete results from the 2007 calendar and only looked at races containing 8 or more runners. I divided the field equally into groups of three so in a field of 9, horses drawn 1-3 would be classed as 'low', 4-6 would be 'mid' and 7-9 would be 'high.' The figures below represent the percentage of winners that were drawn low, middle or high. 5 furlongs (28 races) Low: 29 % Med: 29 % High: 43 % <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

6 furlongs (80 races)

Low: 25 % Med: 27.5 % High: 47.5 %

7 furlongs (80 races)

Low: 25 % Med: 30 % High: 45 %

8 furlongs (98 races)

Low: 30.6 % Med: 28.6 % High: 40.8 %

10 furlongs (38 races)

Low: 26.3 % Med: 39.5 % High: 34.2 %

11 furlongs (34 races)

Low: 35.3 % Med: 44.1 % High: 20.6 %

12 furlongs (36 races)

Low: 22.2 % Med: 41.7 % High: 36.1 %

16 furlongs (30 races)

Low: 46.7 % Med: 23.3 % High: 30 %

Conclusions: as you would expect from a right-handed track, a bias towards the high numbers exists over the shorter distances at Kempton. The bias seems most strong over 5-7 furlongs and to a lesser extent over a mile. Beyond a mile, however, the benefit of being drawn high slopes off and it probably doesn't matter where you are drawn. The stats above tie in with what Raceform said about the prevailing draw bias.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Lingfield (aw) Pic from RP site. Raceform's description of the AW track at Lingfield, "there is little bias over most trips but it is an advantage to be drawn low over 6f and 1m 2f with both starts being situated close to the first bend. A low to middle draw is preferable over 5f even with a safety limit of just ten, although the very inside stall has a poor recent record. No horse managed to win from stall one over that trip in 2004 which suggests the ground right against the inside rail is slower than elsewhere. Stalls are against the outside rail (high) over 5f and 8f but against the inside rail (low) for all other distances." Trainers that have done well this year include Gary Moore, Richard Hannon and Michael Jarvis. Jockeys that have fared well include George Baker, Ryan Moore and Neil Callan. For draw analysis I gathered the complete results from the 2007 calendar and only looked at races containing 8 or more runners. I divided the field equally into groups of three so in a field of 9, horses drawn 1-3 would be classed as 'low', 4-6 would be 'mid' and 7-9 would be 'high.' The figures below represent the percentage of winners that were drawn low, middle or high. 5 furlongs (32 races)<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Low: 28 % Mid: 34 % High: 38 % 6 furlongs (101 races)

Low: 29 % Mid: 32 % High: 40 % 7 furlongs (108 races)

Low: 24 % Mid: 40 % High: 36 % 8 furlongs (97 races)

Low: 36 % Mid: 34 % High: 30 % 10 furlongs (80 races)

Low: 18 % Mid: 38 % High: 44 % 12 furlongs (47 races)

Low: 23 % Mid: 45 % High: 32 % Although Raceform suggest that it is advantageous to be drawn low over 6f and 10f here I didn't detect any low biases over those distances in the results from last year. Infact, my results showed those horses drawn higher fared better over those trips (perhaps the ground does ride slower on the inside rail as Raceform suggest). It may have been that Raceform included races containing less than 8 runners which gave them a slightly different data set, but I would argue that the draw isn't as important in small fields anyway. In Gold from the Sand David Bellingham presents draw data from Lingfield from a few years earlier and his data back up mine from 5f as the % of winners drawn low, middle, high was 25 %, 43 % and 32 % respectively. Over 6f too, his figures were hardly convincing for a supposed low bias either with 28 %, 47 % and 25 % (L, M, H) his results. The other draw stats presented in that book (L,M,H) were: 7f: 30 %, 38 %, 32 % 8f: 32 %, 37 %, 31 % 10f: 33 %, 41 %, 26 % 12f: 29 %, 43 %, 28 % 13f: 19 %, 36 %, 44 % 16f: 10 %, 55 %, 34 % I didn't bother compiling results for 13f and 16f because the number of races was too small to draw any meaningful conclusions. Bellingham's results do hint at a slight bias for those drawn low-mid over 10f as Raceform suggest, but the bias is not as strong as other course biases, such as at Kempton. In summary, I don't think a low draw is that important here really, even though, as a left-handed track it should, in theory. In Gold from the Sand stats are also included that describe how effective front runners are over the various trips. Front runners do twice as well as expected over 5 furlongs and although they fare well enough over 6 and 7f, beyond that they don't appear to be at any advantage.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Southwell (aw) Pic from RP site. Raceform's description of the course, "due to flooding the course was out of action between June and December 2007. Until then over most trips on the round track it was preferable to be drawn away from the extreme inside or outside. The exceptions are over 6f and 1m 3f which both start close to the first bend and therefore it is better to be drawn low to middle. At most meetings the centre of the track rides faster than against either rail, though that can change in extreme weather conditions when power-harrowing can even out the bias. A low to middle draw is preferable over the straight 5f and it is noticeable that even when a high draw wins, the horse concerned almost always giving the stands rail a wide berth having been angled to its to race more towards the centre. Stalls are placed next to the inside rail (low) except over 5f where they are placed next to the stands rail (high)." Trainers that have done well there this year are A J McCabe, K A Ryan and J R Boyle. Jockeys that have fared well include Chris Catlin, Pat Cosgrave, Tom Queally and Hayley Turner. For draw analysis I gathered the complete results from the 2007 calendar and only looked at races containing 8 or more runners. I divided the field equally into groups of three so in a field of 9, horses drawn 1-3 would be classed as 'low', 4-6 would be 'mid' and 7-9 would be 'high.' The figures below represent the percentage of winners that were drawn low, middle or high. 5 furlongs (32 races)<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Note: Stalls placed high over 5f only. Low: 31 % Mid: 34 % High: 34 % 6 furlongs (64 races)

Low: 23 % Mid: 36 % High: 41 % 7 furlongs (46 races)

Low: 35 % Mid: 39 % High: 26 % 8 furlongs (56 races)

Low: 21 % Mid: 41 % High: 38 % 11 furlongs (21 races)

Low: 29 % Mid: 48 % High: 24 % Generally speaking my data tie in with what Raceform say in that it is best to be drawn away from the extreme draws on the course. David Bellingham's draw data in Gold from the Sand also show the same pattern - that those drawn in the middle fare best. Southwell is the only fibresand course in the UK and it rides slower than the polytrack at Wolverhampton, Kempton, Lingfield and Great Leighs. David Bellingham points out that polytrack form doesn't necessarily translate in good fibresand form as a result. Front runners fare very well over the 5 furlong sprint over the straight course (the only straight AW sprint in the UK) and also to a lesser extent over 6f and 11f. It is hard for horses to come a long way from off the pace apparently, given the track rides slow.

[Trotter]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Thanks for all this.........great info ! Must admit that I've always pretty much just ignored the all-weather, but I'm tempted to follow it over the winter...........

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

Thanks for all this.........great info ! Must admit that I've always pretty much just ignored the all-weather, but I'm tempted to follow it over the winter...........

I know a lot of people don't like the AW because the quality of racing isn't always the best, but it is improving. I reckon you would do well on the AW Trotter as you value CD form, which IMO counts for a lot in AW racing. Many horses are short priced for their AW debuts off the back of a good effort on turf even though they have never tackled the surface before, and you can get good value by backing previous AW CD winners who are proven under the conditions. Bomber Command, Diriculous, Resplendent Ace, Russki and St Trinians are just a few names that spring to mind that I have backed fairly recently, because of CD form, and made me a return.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread My two bets above fared poorly and got the thread off to a bad start but there is plenty of time left to turn things around. 7.20 Kempton History Lesson (nap) - Both Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes are men to look out for the AW trainer and jockey championships this year and have the most winners at Kempton of those trainers/jockeys in this race tonight. History Lesson is a son of 2000 Guineas winner Golan and so even though he steps up in trip beyond the 6-7f he has contested so far, he should have no problems seeing out the mile. He has the best of the draw in stall 14 and has shown quite a bit of promise in two maiden starts to date. He finished 6th on his debut over 6f in a decent Newbury maiden that contained the likes of Nasri, Definightly, Absent Pleasure and Count Paris, all of whom have won since to boost the form. He was then stepped up to 7f LTO at Newbury but sent off the 4/1 fav, finished 2nd behind Control Zone, who placed in a Group 3 NTO. The 4th has won since and the few others that finished at the front have ran respectably in maidens since too, so I think that form is respectable. 2/1 Paddypower (BOG), 10 pts win. 8.20 Kempton Reigning Monarch - has a good record over CD here with form figures of 3166, however, he is better than the bare sixes suggest as he had the worst of the draw in stall 1 for one of those runs and for the other he was only beaten by 1.19 lengths in a tight finish (the winner went on to win at Royal Ascot subsequently). His win came off a mark of 50 in January and he runs off 5 lb lower here. He hinted on his last run at Great Leighs that he was ready so strike again off this mark when beaten by just a head. 6/1 Bet 365, 5 pts EW (3 places 1/5 odds). 2.20 Lingfield One More Round goes well around here and has been very consistent in claimers/sellers since joining Ollie Pears' yard. He was stepped up to a mile and a quarter last time out but it didn't suit and so he drops back to 7f now. He was a CD winner here in June and ran well over 6f here too on his run before, going down by just a neck to Marko Jadeo. Tom Queally was in the saddle when he notched up his CD win and another good run may be on the cards now he's back over a suitable trip. 9/2 Bet 365 (BOG) 5 pts EW (1/5 odds 3 places). 3.25 Lingfield Gazboolu goes in search of the hat-trick after two recent wins and has been increased only 3 lbs from his win two weeks ago. He is proven over the trip and although this course configuration is different to that at Kempton, he did run well enough here 3 runs ago (hampered entering the final furlong and finished 3rd, btn 2.25 lengths) to suggest that he could win going left-handed too. 4/1 Bet 365 (BOG) 5 pts EW (3 places 1/4 odds). 4.30 Lingfield Coda Agency proved he stays 2 miles with 3 wins in handicaps earlier in the season (two at this level) at Southwell and Kempton. Trainer Arbuthnot is in form with 3 winners from last 7 runners and Neil Callan is booked after winning on him two runs ago at Kempton. Should be able of running a place if all is well after a 138 day break. 5/1 Bet 365 (BOG) 5 pts EW (3 places 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread I made a slight profit yesterday. Coda Agency won with plenty in hand but One More Round couldn't get a clear run on the rail and had to settle for a place. Gazboolu was miles away, but the other two bets came very close to getting a return. Reigning Monarch finished a neck out of the places and the nap, History Lesson, led a few times before finishing a half a length second to Markyg. 7.50 Great Leighs I try not to bet in small fields like this if I can help it but I have decided to buck the trend tonight in protest at the fact one of the runners is 1/5! It is criminal that a horse can be sent off as short as that and we saw earlier in the week Rainbow something get done over at 2/9. If you are backing horses as short as 1/5 you expect them to have top class credentials, but the horse in question here Audemar, contests a class 5 maiden and is 1/5 after only 1 career run. With all due respect, trainer Ed Vaughan is no O'Brien, Stoute, Hannon or Johnston and I certainly couldn't touch it with Spencer on board. His presence in the saddle has squashed any sensible sort of value out of backing this horse, as people have overbet on it just because a joint-champion is on board. Don't get me wrong, Auldemar does deserve to be the favourite as he performed well on his debut and is by a decent Australian sprinter, but at that sort of price you want to be in no doubt that he is going to win. In backing this horse after only one run you are using the crystal ball as much as the form book to place the bet and at the price it just isn't worth it. So, I am opposing the favourite here with Captain Carnival even though statistics suggest maiden winners usually have racecourse experience under ther belt. I don't fancy any of the others in the field with previous experience and what makes Captain Carnival look appealing at 7/1 is that the trainer is in cracking form. Only yesterday Coda Agency coasted home for him to make it 4-8. Although the trainer isn't renowned for his FTO winners, his gelding is a son of Captain Rio, a group 2 winner over this distance at 2 yo and so makes some appeal on breeding. Suggested bet 10 pts win @ 7/1 Bet 365 (BOG) 8.20 Great Leighs This looks a decent nursery and the two I like are Ataabas Allure and Grand Honour. Ataabas Allure is a proven polytrack winner and is only up 3 lbs from her last win. The form of that race was boosted by the second and she should go well again for Mark Johnston. Grand Honour looks overpriced to me at 16/1. He is priced up that high because of some poor efforts on turf but he has been racing in some decent races at York, Ascot, Epsom and Newmarket, including some at listed level. If you strip out his turf form you are left with bare AW form figures of 511. He finished 5th in a blanket finish at Kempton even though he didn't have an ideal draw and he followed up with a comfortable win at Wolverhampton next time out in a maiden. He proved his worth in handicaps when scoring at Kempton in June off his current mark of 83. Although he is up in trip here and is drawn widest of all I think he is worth a bet at the price. Suggested bets : Ataabas Allure 11/4 Bet 365 (BOG) 10 pts win Grand Honour 16/1 Bet 365 (BOG) 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Results Update 13/10 - Pegasus Dancer (4th) -10 pts 13/10 - Artistic License (8th) -10 pts 15/10 - One More Round (3rd) -0.5 pts 15/10 - Gazboolu (11th) -10 pts 15/10 - Coda Agency (1st) +31.25 pt profit 15/10 - History Lesson (2nd) -10 pts 15/10 - Reigning Monarch (4th) -10 pts 16/10 - Captain Carnival (4th) -10 pts 16/10 - Grand Honour (7th) -10 pts 16/10 - Ataabas Allure (1st) +40 pts profit (BOG advised) Bets to date: 10 Strike rate including EW bets that at least break even: 2/10 (20 %) Total pts staked: 100 Total pts returned: 100.75 Profit/loss: +0.75 Thread Records Biggest priced winner: Coda Agency 5/1 (15/10/08) Most backed winner: n/a Longest winning run: 1 (16/10/08 - 16/10/08) Longest losing run: 4 (15/10/08 - 16/10/08) Notebook Update In the maiden last night at Great Leighs I was impressed with the performance of James Given's Dynamo Dane. His son of Danehill Dancer was outpaced on his debut at Nottingham but showed plenty of improvement to run a 1/5 shot, Audemar, close last night. He put in a gutsy display that belied his starting price of 20/1 and he could be dangerous if entered into another all-weather maiden next time out. Coda Agency was given a masterful ride by sand king Neil Callan on Wednesday when returning from a little break and added another win in a staying handicap to the successes recorded on the AW earlier in the year. He looks versatile as he's won going both left and right handed and on both fibresand and polytrack, and he is worth following if entered in another class 5/6 handicap as he won with plenty in hand last time out. One More Round was backed each way at Lingfield earlier in the week and although he finished a beaten third, 1.12 lengths off the winner, he didn't get a clear run that day and found little room for manoevre on the inside rail. He is worth looking out for again if entered in class 5/6 claimers/sellers at Lingfield and Wolverhampton if Tom Queally is booked again. He may take to racing at Great Leighs too given that it is a left-handed track, although he flopped on sole outings at Kempton and on the fibresand at Southwell. Multakka justified favouritism last time out at Great Leighs by notching up a hat-trick of all-weather victories over a mile. Marcus Tregoning's five year old doesn't have that many miles on the clock after a quiet year last term, and could still be ahead of the handicapper if entered in more class 4 handicaps. He has won at Lingfield too so looks versatile, and the fact he didn't get a clear run last time out when a half a length scorer from Le Chiffre could be a blessing in disguise if the handicapper goes easy on him. Nawamees has been campaigned on turf in recent months but if and when he moves back into the AW sphere he is a horse to look out for in claimers. Lingfield and Wolverhampton are his favourite hunting grounds with a mile and a half perhaps his optimum trip. If trainer Gary Moore books his son Ryan, expect a big run, as they're 2-2 on him this year. Russki - David Simock's son of Fasliyev is a mile specialist at Kempton and has shot up in the handicap this year after a string of superb efforts. He is effective over 7 furlongs two and is 2-2 over that distance, with the lastest of those victories coming in emphatic style last week. Richard Mullen registered his third victory on the colt and even though the winning margin was two and three quarter lengths, he would have won going away had he not been eased at the finish. He was running off a mark of 95 that day and so it is likely he will have to make the transition to listed or group races in the not too distance future, but he has the speed to be effective from a high draw and is worth keeping onside at Kempton. St Trinians - a lightly raced filly that recorded a double for trainer Ed Vaughan at the start of the month. She was stepped up in class on her last run and even though her draw was far from ideal that day at Wolv, she got himself in the mix at the business end of the race. If she's handed a better draw next time out she could be dangerous again over 9f. I'll leave it at that for now.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 6.20 Kempton The 10/1 Bet 365 are offering about Brenin Taran looks overly generous to me here. He finished a respectable 4th on his debut at Newmarket when behind Art Connoisseur, Servoca and Ougba. The 1st won the Coventry stakes at Ascot NTO, the second was defeated by just a head in a nursery off 84 and the 3rd has just won a class 2 conditions race, rated 108. He finished a head second to Smokey Storm NTO at Brighton and his conqueror has won a listed race subsequently and is rated in the 90's. Last time out at Yarmouth he was sent off the 2/5 favourite and despite not having much room at the start he was ridden to lead well inside the final furlong and won by three quarters of a length from Miss Honeybell. He has a good draw in stall 9 here, looks on a decent mark in relation to the Newm form especially and I'm hoping Richard Mullen can put in another Russki-esque performance here to bring in the money. Bet 365 (BOG) go 10/1 and pay 1/4 odds on 3 places so the suggested bet is 5 pts EW. 7.50 Kempton Cape Hawk looks a cracking bet in this and has been tipped up by the Sporting Life form expert and napped by the RP. His AW form stripped bare from his turf form reads 211412; all of those runs were over course and distance and culminated with a cracking second LTO when behind Premio Loco despite starting from a nightmare draw. The form of that race looks solid indeed with The Fifth Member (won off 85 since), Russki (since won off 95) and Willow Dancer (since won off 85) all behind. Infact, his profile reminds me very much of Russki in that he has been campaigned over a mile quite a bit and could be ready to pounce now he has been handed a good draw, following a poor draw LTO, given his outstaning CD record. He's rated 98 for this but he mixed it up with the likes of Masaalek (rated 100) and Fifteen Love (won off 100 at Goodwood) earlier in the season and Russki bolted up the other day off only a 3 lb lower mark. Top-weights do well in AW handicaps anyway so I don't see his weight as a negative. Bet 365 go 4/1 (BOG) and offer EW on 3 places at 1/4 odds so the suggested bet is 5 pts EW. 8.20 Kempton Tout Les Deux - is very well drawn in stall 11 for this 6 furlong sprint and won over course and distance two runs ago off a 5 lb lower mark. Although he flopped LTO at Wolv off his current mark of 65, he had a poor draw and was racing wide entering the home straight - never a good idea. He's won off higher marks in the past though and should be able to get involved here with George Baker on (2-4 this year). Trading at 3/1 on Betfair at the minute, suggested bet 10 pts win. :hope

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 7.20 Wolverhampton Its hard to get away from Blue Tomato for this claimer. Dandy Nicholls' gelding is the joint-highest rated in the field here but carries 4 lbs less than Harry Up (2 lbs less if you take into account the respective claimers allowances). Blue Tomato also has the better draw of the two runners for this 5 furlong spint and showed a fair level of form LTO in a claimer behind Brazilian Brush. The second has won since, actually back in a handicap, and that boosts the form of that race. Bet 365 go 5/2 so the suggested bet is 10 pt win. 8.20 Wolverhampton Always Brave has ran poorly on two all-weather starts but he may have had excuses (pulled hard in better race than this at Kempton and poorly drawn on last visit here). Mark Johnston's runners have to be respected and he combined well with jockey Royston Ffrench to win on Atabaas Allure on the AW the other night. Although Always Brave hasn't won for him since April he has been competitive off similar marks to this (64) on turf and I'm happy to have a little punt at a decent price. Ladbrokes go 12/1 so the suggested bet is 5 pts EW.

[RussP]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Good luck with this, Fin:ok Looks like it's you & me battling it out for the AW honours. :hope for a great winters for both of us. Thanks for posting up your stats too, they make interesting reading.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Amen to that . :hope It gets quite silly around December time when Wolverhampton seem to stage a meeting almost everyday, but at least we will get chance to know the horses and their form well. Results update Blue Tomato was an easy winner yesterday and hosed up, which was expected really at the weights. Always Brave was disappointing though, although I hope if anyone did back at the advised 12/1 that they then traded out to effectively give themselves a free bet (was sent off at an sp of 15/2). New notebook entry Blue Tomato was an impressive winner in a Wolverhampton claimer last night. He was given a handy draw for the five furlong sprint and tracked the leaders approaching the home bend, before bursting clear down the stretch to win by 6 lengths. He is clearly dangerous in this grade and if he is continued to be campaigned in claimers then, providing he gets a handy draw next time out, will warrant attention once more. We haven't seen much of him on the AW to date but judged on his turf form he is equally effective over 6f too. Bets for today 2.10 Southwell 11 now line up for this 7f maiden and I'm happy to ignore the three with no previous racecourse experience and concentrate on the first three in the market. Seminole is third in the betting at 5/1 and represents John Gosden's yard. The trainer is 5-14 here in recent years and Godolphin, who send out second favourite Zelloof, also have an impressive strike rate with 4-10 over the last 5 years. However, Seminole does not seem to have built upon an impressive debut over this trip at Newmarket and has been well beaten in three runs since (two over this trip). Zelloof looks a stronger option and was always going to struggle from a poor draw over an inadequate trip at Pontefract LTO. Prior to that she shaped as though she may be suited by 7f, as she faded out at the end of the race during two attempts at a mile at Kempton and Lingfield. Godolphin may have finally hit form but she is drawn widest of all again, which may not be ideal. So, my idea of the winner in this race is the favourite, Kevin Ryan's, Ysing Yi (5/2 Bet 365 BOG). This colt has previous experience of the fibresand after he tackled a mile in a maiden here in September. The Sporting Life form comment was "led 1f, led again over 5f out, ridden and headed 3f out, still every chance over 1f out, weakened and hung left inside final furlong" which gives me the impression that this drop back to 7f may suit. Indeed, his last run was over this trip at Lingfield and he got the closest he has managed to winning a race when finishing a 1-length 3rd. Although Ryan doesn't have a stike rate as high as Gosden and Godolphin he has saddled a large amount of winners here, and Ysing Yi, who starts from stall 8, has perhaps the best draw of the aforementioned. Advised bet 10 pts win. 3.15 Southwell There are only 8 runners left for this class 4 handicap over 11 furlongs but I don't think there are that many with outstanding chances. Robustian has won twice when returning from a break and is a course and distance winner. However, he's 6 lbs above his last winning mark and no longer has a 7 lb claimer on board either and he may struggled carrying so much weight. Invasian looks to have a chance off his mark of 84 and is proven over the trip and in this grade. However, he may prefer a faster surface and has no previous experience here. William's Way was a CD winner on my only visit here, but has won only once in thirteen tries since and is thus easily opposed. Points of View represents Sir Mark Prescott, who does well here, but he has struggled off 86 lately and hasn't yet proven himself over the trip. The safest bet here IMO is Persian Peril. He likes a slow surface, as recent wins on heavy and soft ground at Haydock and Ayr prove, and he is only 2 lbs above his last winning mark. He ran well on his last visit here last July and there is no question he will get the trip. VC Bet go 4/1 so the suggested bet is 10 pts win. 3.50 Southwell There are quite a few horses in with a chance here but I am going to test David Bellingham's finding that front runners fare three times better than expected over the minimum trip here and put up the rank outsider, Blakeshall Quest. She is campaigned almost exclusively at this track, usually at 6f, and tries to win her races from the front. As the RP say, she hasn't ran over 5f for two years now, but she is proven over the distance when she has. She was only beaten by a short head when she ran off 57 two runs ago (6f) and she is only 3 lbs higher so I don't think she can be completely ruled out based on her rating. The more likely reason for a poor run is likely to be her 109 day absence, but with Sky Bet offering 40/1 I'm going to throw caution to the wind and have a little dabble as she has a fair top-speed rating. Suggested bet 5 pts EW.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread There is no AW racing today so I thought it would be a good chance to update the thread figures. They make pretty grim reading at present and it has been a frustrating start. :\ I don't think the performances of selections has been as bad as the bare figures indicate though, yesterday for example, Blakeshall Quest was the 33/1 outsider (40/1 advised) and finished just a head out of the places even though her market position suggested she should trail home last. Persian Peril put in a decent display too and came close to bringing in 40 pts before he was outbattled in the final 100 yards and finished second. So the different between a +60 pt profit for the day and the -30 loss incurred was just half a length. Ysing Yi ran a poor race and I will probably try concentrate on handicaps in the future where there is more form to go on. I haven't yet decided whether I will try restrict threads bets to one per meeting or whether I shall maintain the scattergun approach. Perhaps the former approach may be best for now. Results Update 17/10 Brenin Taran (5th) -10 17/10 Cape Hawk (3rd) - 0 17/10 Tout les Deux (3rd) -10 18/10 Blue Tomato (1st) +25 18/10 Always Brave (5th) -10 19/10 Ysing Yi (6th) -10 19/10 Persian Peril (2nd) -10 19/10 Blakeshall Quest (4th) -10 Bets to date: 18 Strike rate: 3/18 (17 %) Strike rate including EW bets that make a profit: 3/18 (17 %) Total pts staked: 180 Total pts returned: 145.75 Profit/loss: -34.25 Thread Records Biggest priced winner: Coda Agency 5/1 (15/10/08) Most backed winner: Blue Tomato (5/2 advised into 2/1 SP) Longest winning run: 1 (16/10/08 - 16/10/08) Longest losing run: 4 (15/10/08 - 16/10/08) Lingfield hold a meeting tomorrow anyway and there looks to be a couple of course specialists that may be worth a bet, depending on prices - Louphole and Wibbadune.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 4.00 Lingfield Louphole - he caught my attention when scanning the card yesterday, not least because he is top weight (stats above showed 1/5 of AW handicaps won by top-weight). Travis block isn't on my list of favourite jockeys and he hasn't done me many favours in the past but I think his mount has a decent chance here. A CD record of 16221 over the past two years suggests he likes it around here and he runs off a mark of 69 - only 4 lbs higher than when he won here 18 days ago. Racing in the same grade again there is no reason why he shouldn't notch up a double here. Paddypower (BOG) go 4/1 so the suggested bet is 5 pts EW (1/4 odds, 3 places). 4.30 Lingfield Wibbadune - this one is another with an outstanding course and distance record. Derek Shaw's filly has lifetime CD form of 5111 and the 5th came when she was starting out as a juvenile. The last two of those wins came in this grade and off 63. She is now rated 73 but showed she is ready to strike again off higher marks with a narrow defeat to Chelsea Girl (who is engaged earlier in the card and should be monitored to assess the strength of the form) LTO, when she was denied a clear run. Betfred go 5/1 so the suggested bet is 5 pts EW (1/5 odds on 3 places).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Results Update Louphole disappointed yesterday, he tried to find a way through from the back but didn't get a great run late on around the rail. The winner did well though and was given a good ride from the claimer, coming from a wide draw and making all to score at a massive price. He was a previous CD winner and I think that ride confirms what the stats above show - a high draw is not a disadvantage at all over that trip. Wibbadune was given a great ride by Adam Kirby. Once he pressed the button she responded and was always travelling well. She didn't win by a massive margin but won going away and Kirby timed her run to perfection. Thats 4-5 CD wins for her now and she will be added to the notebook as a result. Notebook Update Wibbadune: Derek Shaw's filly won a sprint handicap at Lingfield yesterday to take her CD record over 5 furlongs to four wins from five attempts. She is still only 4 yo and so is still open to improvement. She had been raised a little in the handicap prior to yesterdays run since her last win but she got the job done well in a decent little sprint and warrants an entry here. She has also won going right-handed at Kempton and has ran well enough at Wolverhampton in the past. 5f is the trip over which she has done virtually all of her racing and if Adam Kirby is booked she is a very good betting proposition given his record of 111221 on the filly.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Great Leighs preview 22/10/08 It will be interesting to see how Beat The Bell goes in the 3.10. He is a CD winner but has been raised 10 lbs from his latest success when an easy winner at <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Wolverhampton. Stepping up in class too, its a no bet for me for today, but will watch with interest. Lone Wolfe appreciated the drop back in trip LTO at Ling when a 1 length third. His past runs suggest he should be capable off this mark at this level and he has won on polytrack before, but he hasn't won in his last 12 runs so again, I'm not backing.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

In the 3.40 Oldjoesaid is the one they have to beat on official ratings. If this was a handicap he would be receiving 3 lbs less from top-rated Bonus. He has been contesting some decent races including the Portland and a listed race at Chester back in July, but he has to prove his effectiveness on the polytrack (on only previous try he finished a respectable 5th at Kempton from a bad draw). Diriculous is once that loves polytrack and is infact a CD winner. However, he steps up from handicaps in contesting this conditions race and has something to find with Ebraam, Oldjoesaid, Hitchens and Major Easy on official figures. Advanced takes a drop in class having contested a Group 2 LTO and prior to that the competitive Ayr Gold Cup and a listed race at Beverley. His experience of the polytrack is limited; on his sole AW run he finished a neck second at Kempton. That hints that he should be okay on this surface, although his turf form clouds the picture somewhat as his best efforts in that sphere have been on slower surfaces. It looks a tight race and I can't confidently nominate one.

In the 4.10 hat-trick chasing Suzi Spends is likely to be a warm order and she goes well around here and is a CD winner. However, she takes a step up in class and carries a 6 lb penalty on her back and IMO is more a lay than a play at the price of 11/4. Oat Cusine could be the best alternative at 4/1 given she stayed this trip at Lingfield (which also proved her effectiveness on this surface) and she wasn’t disgraced in a listed race at Ascot LTO. She runs off the same mark again here, which is 5 lbs above her last winning mark, but she responds well to Hayley Turner and is the one to beat IMO, as a proven class 3 winner. Mark Johnston has been teaming up well with Royston Ffrench lately and they send out the 5/2 fav Red and White. She appreciated the step up to this trip LTO at Warwick but steps up in class and is yet to prove her effectiveness on polytrack. Suggested bets: 4.10 Oat Cuisine 4/1 Sporting Bet 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Kempton preview 22/10/08 It doesn’t look a great card at Kempton tonight. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

In the 7.20 maiden Isabelonabicycle has a decent draw and Andrew Balding’s filly showed promise over CD on her debut when second to Buddhist Monk. She had hard-luck story Brexca and Bluebell Ridge behind, and the latter boosted the form by picking up a maiden NTO. She looks the strongest contender on the evidence of the limited form available but at 11/10 there is little room for error and I won’t be getting involved at that price. In the 7.50 maiden Swiss Art is well drawn in stall 12 and a decent price is available (12/1) as his second to Jonah’s Cruising over CD LTO was only a claimer. As a son of One Coot Cat he could potentially be smart though and Ron Harris may be able to work his magic on this Ralph Beckett cast off. Although it usually pays to stick to the first three in the betting in AW maidens the form of Redding Colliery’s <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Ascot maiden looks poor for the course and Caerus and would be a better option. However, is Spencer the right man to lead that one from the front? He sent a short price favorite to the front far and went for home far too early last week (may have been Hold the Gold) and may be more comfortable if he was sitting at the back of the field on a hold up horse. The form of George Rex’s maidens doesn’t look anything out of the ordinary and a poor draw means its easy to look elsewhere anyway.

The 8.20 looks a decent little race. Otaared hails from the flying Michael Jarvis stable and comes here having lost his maiden tag at Nottingham last time out. The 3rd and 4th have boosted that form since and the form of his race prior to that, over 7f at Newmarket, looks strong too. The winner Virtual has won off 100 in a handicap since and Otaared was only 1.5 lengths behind. Masaalek back in third is a genuine 100-rated horse and even the 4th, Slugger O’Toole has advertised the form with wins off marks up to 88 subsequently. He looks sure to go well from a decent enough draw, but at 7/4 I can’t touch it in a handicap.

Il Grande Maurizio is interesting given that he makes his UK debut. He comes here in good shape after two wins abroad and has won over this distance before. Some may be tempted into having a punt at his 20/1 as he has a very good draw too, but its hard to weight up if he will handle the surface and if the handicapper already has his measure or not. Markab is overpriced at 25/1 given that he is a previous CD winner. He won off a mark of 82 earlier this season and is now 10 lbs higher and up in grade. However, he was narrowly beaten by Benllech off 93 recently at Lingfield to suggest more wins could still be in the locker. A poor draw means a place may be the limit of his capabilities here though. Hinton Admiral finished strongly at Chester last time and has proven himself on the polytrack earlier in his career. A poor draw may hamper his chances here though. Baby Houseman has shown promise in two starts for John Gosden but may need the run after a 116 day break and of more interest is Walter Swinburn’s Lindoro. He started from a poor draw on his last run here over CD but stayed on to take 3rd behind an impressive Russki. He wasn’t beaten far on his run before that either when hampered at Chester, and is the mount of inform Adam Kirby, who gave Wibbadune a brilliant ride yesterday at Lingfield. He’s 6 lbs above his last winning mark but there could be more to come from him and a good draw here (stall 12) will boost his chances. Kirk Michael returns from a long absence and Barney McGrew may be more effective over shorter so I think Lindoro could be a decent each-way bet at 16/1 Skybet. Suggested bet: 8.20 Lindoro 16/1 Sky Bet 5 pts EW (1/4 odds on 3 places).

[mccauley39]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Fintron i just read what you said about wibbadune, wot a great ride by Kirby, it seem to be a change of tactics too , he seemed too deliberately hold the nag up , then only pressed the go button in last furlong. I had me money on it too as Simon Mapeltoft of ATR who also does punditary on William hill radio owns the horse, he gave it a gud word during the week for it. It should be be winning again, i thought hereford boy if the blinkers have a the same effect should be winning soon.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

Fintron i just read what you said about wibbadune, wot a great ride by Kirby, it seem to be a change of tactics too , he seemed too deliberately hold the nag up , then only pressed the go button in last furlong. I had me money on it too as Simon Mapeltoft of ATR who also does punditary on William hill radio owns the horse, he gave it a gud word during the week for it. It should be be winning again, i thought hereford boy if the blinkers have a the same effect should be winning soon.

Yeah Kirby gets on well with the filly and she clearly goes well for him. I didn't realise how good his record was on her when I backed her yesterday but 111221 is impressive stuff. Hopefully she won't be raised too much by the handicapper now and we can follow up next time too.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread I mentioned above that I though Swiss Art was a decent price in the 7.50. Well he is out to 16/1 now so I am prepared to get involved having done a little further reading up on him. If he fails to land a place then so be it, but he's only had one run and he couldn't have asked for a better draw really. At 16/1 he's worth a little punt I think. He's a son of One Cool Cat and the RP say this on his breeding,

3rd foal, half-brother to Leo's Pride, 1m winner at 3; dam dual 6f winner at 2, only season to race, half-sister to very useful Rum Charger, dual 6-7f winner at 2-3, Park Romance & Pakhoes, both useful 6f winners at 2

Well he races over 7f here and showed over CD last time he goes well here. Apparently there were 25 claims for him after his nose second LTO and with that run under his belt he should be shorter priced than some of these debutants here IMO. Suggested Bets: Swiss Art: Blue Square go 16/1 and offer 1/5 odds on 3 places so the suggested bet is 5 pts EW. Swiss Art/Lindoro 1 pt each-way double: Blue Square offer 16/1 (1/5 odds 3 places) on Swiss Art and 14/1 (1/4 odds 3 places) on Lindoro. If they both place the return would be 18.90 pts (16.90 pts profit).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Couldn't manage to find a winner yesterday although that isn't too much of a suprise given that two of the bets were 16/1 shots. I watched the races at Great Leighs and Beat the Bell (who i mentioned but didn't back) just got up after stepping up in class. Depending on how the handicapper rates him next time out I may add him to the notebook. The best ride of the meeting in the races I saw was Neil Callan on Try Me in the 4.10. Clive Brittain's horse hadn't been in great form and infact was a maiden, but Callan confirmed his reputation as the king of the sand with a magnificent ride from pillar to post. Unfortunately that meant my bet Oat Cuisine was a loser, and she went well enough under Hayley Turner but lacked a burst of speed in the final furlong and Try Me was a game winner. The 3.40 was the conditions race and thankfully I chose not to bet on that. Oldjoesaid was the one to beat occording to offical figures but the first two home were two that were carrying more weight than they should in a handicap. John Gosden's Prohibit was the winner at a good price but I don't think many would have fancied that after recent efforts. Of more interest to me from a notebook point of view was Diriculous, who was sent off the joint fav and refused to cave in and was coming back for more with a late run at the line. I don't know whether connections will enter him in a handicap again but he absolutely loves it on the AW and he's going into the notebook after a decent display even if he will be run in conditions events hereon in. I haven't seen any of the Kempton races from last night so for analysis purposes I've made do with the Sporting Life comments. We managed to beat the prices on both selections but neither yeilded a return. I was drawn into backing Swiss Art once the price went out to 16/1 and although it went off at 12/1, Ron Harris horse never looked like winning (finished 8th). Infact, the winner trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam absolutely hacked up and Redding Colliery was good value for its 5 length win. With three maiden runs under its belt it now qualifies for a handicap rating, and it is one that should be noted as a result after such a facile victory. I was expecting a bit more from Lindoro though. Walter Swinburn's horse was absolutely annihiliated in the betting and was sent off at 7/1 (16/1 advised) so was another one for the traders. I didn't bother trading out as I thought he could upset the fav, but he didn't use the high draw to his advantage and was dropped into the rear. He tried to make a run late on and Sporting Life comment that he didn't get a clear run 2f out. In the end he finished 4th, 1.75 lengths out of the places. Frustratingly it was the Italian raider Il Grande Maurizio that was the winner. I mentioned that he was in good form and had a handy draw but didn't back it despite the 20/1 on offer in the morning because it was making its UK debut. Well he hung on to score by 1/2 a length from the Otaared and he is another to look out for if he races over here again now we have some prior UK form to judge him on. He has just beaten Otarred (rated 94), Bazroy (rated 85) and Lindoro (rated 90) so anything around 90 would seem a fair rating in my opinion.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Great Leighs Preview 23/10/08 A personal favourite of mine is entered in the opener (6.20) and I'm hoping he can get things off to a flyer....Hallings Overture - given the thread stats at the minute I could do with another 28/1 win from him! I was fortunate enough to nap this one (in BBOTD thread) in August when he coasted home over course and distance and I was pleasantly surprised how well he ran that day under Richard Kingscote. 10f is his optimum trip and all of his wins have come on polytrack, so it wasn't a great surprise that he flopped next time out on the turf at Bath. On his last run he was back on the AW at Kempton but he started from a bad draw and although ridden to take up second 2f out, weakened inside the final stages of that 12f. Thus, the drop back to 10f tomorrow may suit. He is 5 lbs above his last winning mark but only 1 lb above his highest ever winning mark. This is only a class 6 affair, it won't take much winning and he is infact only one of two that bring winning three figure form to the table. The fact he is top weight is a positive bearing in mind this is an AW handicap (another top weight won tonight with the Italian horse at massive odds at Kempo). Its all about catching him on one of his good days but Kingscote is booked and as he's a recent CD winner he isn't without hope. The 6.50 is a claimer and the top ones look the most likely winners. Gone Hunting looks a decent claiming horse and won a claimer at Wolverhampton last month. He's finished second in two claimers either side of that run and with 6f sure to suit he could go well for Jack Dean (who claims 5 lbs), who gave Lord Deevert such a good ride at Lingfield earlier in the week. Spencer's horse Timeteam looks the danger and won over this trip at Bath. He's only ran on the AW once before when a 2.75 length second at Lingfield but at least he brings some decent handicap form into the race; he was beaten by just a head by Kingswinford at Newbury LTO. The problem is that both of these are around 11/4 and as I can't split them its a no bet race for me. In the 7.20 Majuba runs. This horse, along with Brexca, seems to be one of the hard luck stories of the season. It always seems to run into a place but just can't find that elusive victory. There is every reason to believe that the 5f trip is fine and with sand king Neil Callan booked he should give another good account. He's proven expensive to follow though and at 5/2 its again a no bet for me. Godolphin have saddled 9 winners from their last 20 runners so Dareh is of obvious interest in the 7.50 maiden. She finished third at Folkestone on her soft ground debut and was only beaten by 2 lengths. With that run under her belt I think she is a better proposition than the unraced favourite from the Gosden yard, as is Minute Limit, who showed promise at Kempton last time out when falling short by just 0.75 lengths. I'll just be sitting back and watching this one though and aren't getting involved. The 8.20 is the staying handicap and Kritzia is interesting. Henry Cecil's horse hacked up over course and distance on her previous AW outing. She has since disappointed on turf under a penalty, but the return to a faster surface should suit here. A 9 ln increase since her last win means she isn't a certainty though and Silk Hall, after a decent win at Wolv recently, could be the danger. However, the latter is 7/4 at the minute and with a penalty on his back I prefer the claims of Kritzia EW instead. She could be raring to go again after a little break. The last race on the card looks quite competitive. Pension Policy was a good winner over CD last time out but a 6 lb penalty means his price at 13/8 looks far too short for this handicap. There could be value in looking elsewhere. Jollyhockeysticks is a CD winner and is dropping in the handicap but a strike rate of 1-20 doesn't inspire a great deal of confidence. Of more interest could be top weight Wikaala who was only 2 lengths off Pension Policy LTO. At the revised weights Marcus Tregoning's runner could easily reverse the form (conceded 8 lbs LTO but receives weight today because of Pension Policiy's penalty). At 7/1 he's backable each-way. Suggested bets: I am going to alter the staking plan from previous weeks. Winners are proving hard to come by so I think it makes sense to weight bets more in favour of the place component. Striker has shown this to be a decent strategy in his thread and so I am going to try a 80 % place/ 20 % win approach and see how goes. If the place return exceeds the total outlay on that bet then the bet will be declared a winner for S/R purposes. Hallings Overture: 2 pts win @ 9/1 SJ (BOG) / 8 pts place only @ 2.70 (Betfair) Kritzia: 2 pts win @ 7/1 Bet 365 (BOG) / 8 pts place only @ 2.66 (Betfair) Wikaala: 2 pts win @ 7/1 Skybet / 8 pts place only @ 2.32 (Betfair)

[Spooner]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Good luck with this Fin. :ok

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Cheers Spooner, I could do with quite a bit right now! Yesterday's bets were very disappointing. Kritzia and Wikaala both seemed to be travelling well before just fading away to nothing. God only knows what happened there because both were backed in during the day. Hallings Overture's defeat wasn't a great suprise, he is an all or nothing horse but having scooped 25/1 and 28/1 wins on him in the past I think I've had all the luck I'll ever have on him now. For today's bets i'm concentrating solely on the 6.50 tonight at Wolv. 6.50 Wolverhampton With San Jose City a non-runner, 11 runners are left in this class 4 handicap over 7 furlongs. 100/1 outsider Fitzwarren is easily opposed as he looks out of his depth and has been out of form at lower levels than this recently. Westwood is well drawn but in unraced on the all-weather and his turf form suggests a slower surface may suit. Mandarin Spirit is a previous course and distance winner but he has been running over shorter of late, is 6 lbs above his last winning mark and hasn't won at this level for over 18 months. Gap Princess comes here in good form and has been competitive in this grade in recent runs. A winner off 65 at Catterick she is only 5 lbs higher here and could manage a place for in-form Richard Fahey. She didn't get a trouble free passage last time out at Kempton but was only narrowly beaten, and running off the same mark here she has to enter calculations. Although a wide draw may not be ideal here, she is due to go up 1 lb in the future so can be considered well in. Bahamian Kid too has previous course and distance form although his win did come in a maiden and he must improve to score in handicap company here. He finished 4th behind Beat the Bell (who boosted the form with a win yesterday) in a handicap last time out off 70, but was beaten by nearly 5 lengths. Others make more appeal and a draw in box 9 may not be ideal. I've lost faith in Autumn Blades who flopped at Kempton back in September. He has won on the polytrack at Kempton before but he seems to save his best form for when racing right-handed, as his other success came at Folkestone. He has been well beaten in each of his last three starts and although he hit trouble last time out and Jamie Spencer may be considered an eye-catching booking here, I don't think he should be 5/1 given his lack of recent form. Chijmes is only 2 lbs above his last winning mark and has won over this trip at Lingfield. He ran well here in July when beaten by less than a length into third but he has made little impression on his last four starts and he has something to prove at present. Royal Envoy has won here before and can see out this trip, but there can be few complaints that he has three duck eggs in his 6-figure form and its hard to fancy him in his current form, which has taken a turn for the worst since he left Derek Shaw's yard earlier in the summer. Parisian Gift represents Tom Dascombe, who ended his losing run when Gross Prophet won the other day, and he does act on the surface, as a maiden win at Lingfield last December shows. He was only just touched off by a neck at Yarmouth last time out but is up 4 lbs here and is also up in grade. He may have place claims but others appeal more. So, the two to concetrate on in my opinion are the top two in the handicap - Without Prejudice and Alexander Hurricane. Without Prejudice proved his effectiveness on this surface when scoring at Kempton last time out and this Johannesburg colt comes here with trainer Jeremy Noseda in good form (4-22 in last 2 weeks). He could perhaps have been given a better draw though, and with a 6 lb penalty on his back and up in grade, his price of 9/4 looks on the skinny side. With that in mind the suggested bet is Alexander Hurricane. Kevin Ryan's gelding has won on all four previous visits to Dunstall Park and course expert Chris Catlin is booked for another big ride. He won here in this grade last time out over further but has proved he has the pace to win this with wins over 5f and 6f previously. A draw in stall 1 is ideal for one that likes to race prominently and having won in this grade last time, a 3 lb rise since his last win doesn't look insurmountable. Suggested Bets: Alexander Hurricane 7/2 (Bet 365 BOG). 10 pts win. 1 pt Tricast: 1) Alexander Hurricane, 2) Without Prejudice, 3) Gap Princess: 62.26 with Bet 365. :hope

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Alexander Hurricane won yesterday to boost the coffers a little and has to go into the notebook to be flagged up for future runs at Wolv - he's 5/5 there now and has won over 5,6,7 and 9f so is very versatile with regards to trip. Today's bet comes from the 7.20 at Wolverhampton in the nursery. 7.20 Wolverhampton With Ridgeway Silver withdrawn there are now 12 runners left in this class 4 sprint handicap over 6 furlongs. Top-weight Cool Art is proven on the polytrack and is open to plenty of improvement like all of these. However, he is drawn in stall 10 today and that may not be ideal as he looks to make break his handicap duck. Musical Bridge has been knocking on the door and has a chance off his present mark but is yet to prove his effectiveness on the surface. Diddums drops in class here having contested class 2 races at Newmarket on his last two runs. He had won a Doncaster maiden prior to that, went well here before when second to Blown It, and he has a handy draw in stall 2. I'm not prepared to get stuck in at 15/8 though bearing in mind this is a handicap. Joe Caster has been in good form but his form to date has come on slower surfaces on the turf and he is perhaps best watched on his AW debut for now, whilst Common Diva has failed to build on the promise she showed in a Pontefract maiden and has disappointed twice since. Mabait represents Luca Cumani and he won over this trip last time out on Gd/frm ground at Haydock. He's only up 6 lbs here and racing in the same grade could follow up, although it won't be easy from stall 13. Bermondsey Bob sprang a 150/1 shock when landing a maiden at Salisbury back in August but is eased 3 lbs in the handicap after failing to land a blow in two handicaps since. Others appeal more. Flintock is another that looks to pick up his first handicap here and he is proven over the trip. Despite not having a trouble free passage last time out I'm not too keen on him here because of a wide draw. Calypso Girl has failed to build upon her maiden form at Nottingham from April and has been well back on all of her recent starts. Venetian Lady may improve now sent handicapping but could have perhaps been found an easier handicap to try lose her maiden tag and Madison Belle has been well drawn in two previous AW efforts at Great Leighs but hasn't made it count so is looked over today. With all that in mind my selection against the field here is Bobby Soxter. Drawn handily in stall 1 she carries some of the best form into the race. Like Diddums, she drops in class here having been sent off the well backed favourite in class 2 Newmarket nursery last time out. She didn't see out the trip that day so todays drop back to 6f should suit and she may have had excuses for her 11th at the same track on her run prior to that, when she was hampered 1f out and finished well behind Diddums. She already has a Folkestone maiden under her belt and the form of that race has been boosted emphatically by the fifth, Lahaleeb, who has won three since, including the Group 2 Rockfell Stakes. She is let in off a mark of 73 here and given the drop in class she could be worth an each way bet at a price four times that of market leader Diddums. Paddypower (BOG) go 8/1 and pay 1/5 odds on 3 places so the suggested bet is 5 pts EW. :hope

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Bobby Soxer ran a fair enough race on Saturday. She was sent to the front as they turned for home and led 2f out, but lacked pace in the closing stages and lost a place return just before the line, finishing 3/4 length behind 3rd in 4th. Joe Caster dispelled any doubts about his ability to handle a fast surface and added a win on his AW debut to some decent performances on soft ground on turf. The fav looked poor value at 15/8 yet was smashed into odds in. This was a handicap though so it was no suprise to see him beaten. Revised notebook up to 27/10/08 In a Great Leighs maiden I was impressed with the performance of James Given's Dynamo Dane. His son of Danehill Dancer was outpaced on his debut at Nottingham but showed plenty of improvement to run a 1/5 shot, Audemar, close last time. He put in a gutsy display that belied his starting price of 20/1 and he could be dangerous if entered into another all-weather maiden next time out. Coda Agency was given a masterful ride by sand king Neil Callan on Wednesday when returning from a little break and added another win in a staying handicap to the successes recorded on the AW earlier in the year. He looks versatile as he's won going both left and right handed and on both fibresand and polytrack, and he is worth following if entered in another class 5/6 handicap as he won with plenty in hand last time out. One More Round was backed each way at Lingfield earlier in the week and although he finished a beaten third, 1.12 lengths off the winner, he didn't get a clear run that day and found little room for manoevre on the inside rail. He is worth looking out for again if entered in class 5/6 claimers/sellers at Lingfield and Wolverhampton if Tom Queally is booked again. He may take to racing at Great Leighs too given that it is a left-handed track, although he flopped on sole outings at Kempton and on the fibresand at Southwell. Multakka justified favouritism last time out at Great Leighs by notching up a hat-trick of all-weather victories over a mile. Marcus Tregoning's five year old doesn't have that many miles on the clock after a quiet year last term, and could still be ahead of the handicapper if entered in more class 4 handicaps. He has won at Lingfield too so looks versatile, and the fact he didn't get a clear run last time out when a half a length scorer from Le Chiffre could be a blessing in disguise if the handicapper goes easy on him. Nawamees has been campaigned on turf in recent months but if and when he moves back into the AW sphere he is a horse to look out for in claimers. Lingfield and Wolverhampton are his favourite hunting grounds with a mile and a half perhaps his optimum trip. If trainer Gary Moore books his son Ryan, expect a big run, as they're 2-2 on him this year. Russki - David Simock's son of Fasliyev is a mile specialist at Kempton and has shot up in the handicap this year after a string of superb efforts. He is effective over 7 furlongs two and is 2-2 over that distance, with the lastest of those victories coming in emphatic style last week. Richard Mullen registered his third victory on the colt and even though the winning margin was two and three quarter lengths, he would have won going away had he not been eased at the finish. He was running off a mark of 95 that day and so it is likely he will have to make the transition to listed or group races in the not too distance future, but he has the speed to be effective from a high draw and is worth keeping onside at Kempton. St Trinians - a lightly raced filly that recorded a double for trainer Ed Vaughan at the start of the month. She was stepped up in class on her last run and even though her draw was far from ideal that day at Wolv, she got himself in the mix at the business end of the race. If she's handed a better draw next time out she could be dangerous again over 9f. Blue Tomato was an impressive winner in a Wolverhampton claimer last night. He was given a handy draw for the five furlong sprint and tracked the leaders approaching the home bend, before bursting clear down the stretch to win by 6 lengths. He is clearly dangerous in this grade and if he is continued to be campaigned in claimers then, providing he gets a handy draw next time out, will warrant attention once more. We haven't seen much of him on the AW to date but judged on his turf form he is equally effective over 6f too. Wibbadune: Derek Shaw's filly won a sprint handicap at Lingfield yesterday to take her CD record over 5 furlongs to four wins from five attempts. She is still only 4 yo and so is still open to improvement. She had been raised a little in the handicap prior to yesterdays run since her last win but she got the job done well in a decent little sprint and warrants an entry here. She has also won going right-handed at Kempton and has ran well enough at Wolverhampton in the past. 5f is the trip over which she has done virtually all of her racing and if Adam Kirby is booked she is a very good betting proposition given his record of 111221 on the filly. Beat the Bell: Progressing at the rate of knots, Alan Bailey's horse notched up a hat-trick at Great leighs on his last run despite being raised 10 lbs from his last winning mark. Things have dropped into place for him since he was returned to the polytrack and he has won over 6f at Great eighs (twice) and Wolverhampton now. He look a leap up in class but got home in class 3 company last time and could be worth monitoring next time out. Redding Colliery: hosed up for Jane Chapple-Hyam in a Kempton maiden the other week. He was a 5-length winner over 7 furlongs, but ran respectably over a mile too on a previous run at Great Leighs. Now he has three maiden runs under his belt it will be interesting to see how the handicapper treats him when he allocates him his first rating. Diriculous: contested a conditions race at Great Leighs last week and despite having something to find on ratings with many of his opponents he showed he loves it at that track with a fair second - he was coming back for more near the line. He's won twice at Grl before, but also goes well at Southwell and Kempton. 6f is his trip and although I'm not sure if handicaps are more or less out of the equation for him now, he is a decent AW horse. Il Grande Maurizio: made his UK debut at Kempton last week and with no previous form over here, was let off at a massive price. He made his good draw count though and, racing over 7f, held off the advances of the well fancied favourite, 94-rated Otaared. He was rated 95 for that run and it will be interesting to see how much he is put up for his next run. He apparently has ran well on the AW in Italy before too. Alexander Huricane: extended his record to 5/5 at Wolverhampton with another decent win, this time over 7f. He has now won over 5,6 and 9f as well at Dunstall Park. Definately one to keep an eye on whenever engaged at Wolv in the future.