Fintron's AW Thread

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Zalkani finished second yesterday which was both pleasing and frustrating at the same time. He was hampered in running on a recent start and that may have had something to do with the decision to race him from the front yesterday. I didn't expect those tactics, especially in a staying race at Lingfield, but to be fair I think Jerry O'Dwyer ran a cracking race and he was mugged of the win at the line. It was another solid effort from this consistent horse and I think another win is waiting around the corner in a low grade handicap off his current mark. Today's bet is another one from the notebook that has been put up in my thread twice before...

Redding Colliery – 27/10/08 hosed up in maiden, qualifiers for handicap mark next time out.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Staking rules: add the two numbers at each end of the row to determine the next stake. After a winner, add the winning stake to the right end of the line. After a loser, cross off the two numbers at the end of the row. Results Line 1: Bold Adventure 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts TBP @ 2.1, PLACED = +8.36* (+8.36 overall) Line 2: Garlogs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts TBP @ 3.05, LOST = -9 (-0.64) Line 3: Zalkani 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 9 pts TBP @ 2.1, PLACED = +9.4* (+8.76) Line 4: Redding Colliery 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 = 11 pts TBP @ 4.9 Betfair Note: due to the high odds today I am looking to trade out this bet in running - see below. 4.45 Nas Redding Colliery, a 310,000 guineas purchase for Jane Chapple-Hyam back in April, has come a long way since hacking up in a £3k Kempton maiden in October and is improving at the rate of knots. As a son of Mineshaft (quadruple Grade 1 winner on dirt) out of a Zilzal mare (stallion a dual Group 1 winner - including QEII stakes) he is beautifully bred and has taken to dirt well on his two starts in the UAE. He contested a dirt race over seven furlongs here on 22nd January and ran a solid race, stretching them out before the Godolphin pair Desert Party and Regal Ransom picked him up late on. It was a credible performance considering he was running off level weights against animals rated 23 and 10 lbs his superior on official figures. Trainer Herman Brown then stepped him up in trip for the UAE 2000 Guineas for his following race and he put in what was, quite possibly, a career best in that Grade 3 event which was worth £104k to the winner - considerably more than the Kempton pot he picked up four months earlier! Frankie had his pick of the three Godolphin runners and his mount, 6/5 fav Desert Party, got the job done in the end but Redding Colliery, starting at 16/1 for the second race running, made a real fight of it and closed the gap on Regal Ransom (second) by two and a quarter lengths to suggest he is improving. He also had Vineyard Haven (9/4 2nd fav and a dual Group 1 winner on dirt) five and three quarter lengths back in fourth. Redding Colliery runs in another Group 3 race here and although he is up against a couple of proven Group winners in Diabolical and the unbeaten Big City Man, a handy weight for age allowance means he runs off a feather weight and could have a chance of making the frame once more. He steps down to 6f and although he is bred to appreciate further, from what I have seen of him I think he has the pace to make a good go of it here and have taken 4.9 for the place with the intention of trading out in running if he runs his usual front-running race. I'm hoping to lay the full stake at 3.0 ish, but will have to see hows things go.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 8.50 Wolverhampton Redding Colliery is a non-runner. Staking rules: add the two numbers at each end of the row to determine the next stake. After a winner, add the winning stake to the right end of the line. After a loser, cross off the two numbers at the end of the row. Results Line 1: Bold Adventure 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts TBP @ 2.1, PLACED = +8.36* (+8.36 overall) Line 2: Garlogs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts TBP @ 3.05, LOST = -9 (-0.64) Line 3: Zalkani 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 9 pts TBP @ 2.1, PLACED = +9.4* (+8.76) Line 4: Spectait 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 = 11 pts TBP @ 1.44 Betfair 8.50 Wolverhampton Eight runners will line up for this class 3 handicap over 1m 1f 103 yd and with concerns over most of the runners I think Spectait is a worthy favourite. He has been in good form and rediscovered his spark by winning his last two races since the handicapper dropped his rating, and he is still only 3 lbs higher than his highest ever winning mark on the AW. He has infact won off 8 lbs higher on turf, so I don't think he has finished winning yet in his current mood and he is proven over CD. Pevensey may need further, Dream of Fortune is not certain to reverse recent form with Jonjo's horse even after a 5 lb pull in the weights tonight, and Kingsdale Orion may be using this merely as a fitness excercise ahead of the Lincoln as he seems to need cut in the ground to be at his best. Tourst is one of a few that may not get the race run to suit and Tamimi's History and Hustle have breaks to overcome. Hustle is the danger if race sharp, making his first start for a new trainer, but without a guarantee of his well being I have backed Spectait for a place.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Spectait won really well last night and would interest me again if turned out under a penalty at Wolves again. He is entered in the Lincoln handicap at Doncaster at the end of the month though so I am not sure if he will be seen again before that time. He goes into the notebook anyway.

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Staking rules: add the two numbers at each end of the row to determine the next stake. After a winner, add the winning stake to the right end of the line. After a loser, cross off the two numbers at the end of the row. Results Line 1: Bold Adventure 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts TBP @ 2.1, PLACED = +8.36* (+8.36 overall) Line 2: Garlogs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts TBP @ 3.05, LOST = -9 (-0.64) Line 3: Zalkani 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 9 pts TBP @ 2.1, PLACED = +9.4* (+8.76) Line 4: Spectait 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 = 11 pts TBP @ 1.44, WON = +4.6* (+13.36) Line 5: Mutamared 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 = 13 pts TBP @ 1.99 Betfair 8.20 Wolv Ravi River has been withdrawn from this, leaving 8 runners standing for this class 3 handicap over 7 furlongs. It looks the race of the night but many of these look a little bit exposed and I think Mutamared could be worth backing to place. He has been a fantastic servant to Kevin Ryan over the years, picking up three grade 2 handicaps off marks in the 90's in 2006 and then cleaning up in plating races since October 2008 with five wins from six all-weather starts. He got the better of Chjimes in a slowly run race at Lingfield on the 7th of February when raced back in handicaps, but continues to hold his form well and finishing second to the well-handicapped Ebraam last time out off 87. He is only 1 lb higher now and is consistent and clearly in good heart. The form of his Lingfield win has been boosted twice by Chjimes and I think he deserves his place at the head of the market with Jamie Spencer an eyecatching jockey booking for the yard. 13 pts @ 1.99 taken for the place (3 places paid).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread I was disappointed with Mutamared yesterday. He drifted throughout the day from 7/2 out to 13/2 at one point and although backed in a little before the off to around the 6/1 mark had his chances killed by Spencer. The jockey gave it a good ride if it was a hold up horse, but this is a horse that has done all of its best work in recent months tracking the leaders. He did come from off the pace to pick up a weak claimer a couple of months ago but that was racing amongst poor opposition and against better opposition last night my bet and hopes of laying off in running after the drift were both thwarted by his tactics. Curse the man. Todays place bet is one I have been folllowing and have backed for the Lincoln handicap. 50/1 is still available with VC bet if anyone wants to get on, but with no guarantee of a good draw, ground or infact stamina (we might have that after today) is is only a bet to get lightly involved in. Results Line 1: Bold Adventure 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts TBP @ 2.1, PLACED = +8.36* (+8.36 overall) Line 2: Garlogs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts TBP @ 3.05, LOST = -9 (-0.64) Line 3: Zalkani 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 9 pts TBP @ 2.1, PLACED = +9.4* (+8.76) Line 4: Spectait 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 = 11 pts TBP @ 1.44, WON = +4.6* (+13.36) Line 5: Mutamared 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 = 13 pts TBP @ 1.99, LOST = -13 (+0.36) Line 6: Flowing Cape 3 4 5 6 7 9 = 12 pts TBP @ 2.4 Betfair 3.30 Wolverhampton Flowing Cape looks to have something about him and has been in good form at this track over 6-7f winning his last two. He looks ahead of the handicapper and there looks more to come. Firstly, he had injury problems in the past that have halted his progression, but a couple of bits of useful juvenile form point to him having a bright future now he appears to have recovered from those problems. The slight concern here is the draw - he comes from stall 10 - but they go over 1m 1f here and I would be disappointed if Graeme Gibbons couldn't find a decent position over a race of that length. He is bred to get further than the 7f he has tackled so far too. 12 pts TBP at 2.4 Betfair.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Ideally I would like to know the fate of the Flowing Cape result before deciding the stake for my next bet but I will not be around to react accordingly, so will assume the worse case scenario, that the above bet was a loser, and have adjusted stakes accordingly for another bet this afternoon. 4.40 Wolverhampton I regard Matsunosuke as a top class all-weather sprint handicapper and his beating of Duff in a listed contest last time out rates as a career best and a magnificent effort. He has been highly progressive this season and I have passed over on him on a couple of occassions thinking he was exposed, only for him to pull another win out of the bag. He is ideally suited by a strong pace, and with Thebes and Majuro in opposition I think he could get the race run to suit. 11 pts TBP taken @ 1.95 Betfair.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Flowing Cape ran a very solid race and the draw did not turn out to be the problem with him as Gibbons worked him into the best position he could from the draw - the outside - and had him bang in contention inside the final few furlongs. He can be considered very unlucky now to have hung onto a place and was only narrowly out of the money. Bred to get a mile, the extra 110 yards found him out that day. I think he is better over shorter anyway now to be honest having seen that, where his pace is more of an asset. Matsunosuke ran a poor race. He got the race ran at a good clip but failed to eat up the yardage as usual and was soundly beaten. I was very disappointed with his effort. Results Line 1: Bold Adventure 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts TBP @ 2.1, PLACED = +8.36* (+8.36 overall) Line 2: Garlogs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts TBP @ 3.05, LOST = -9 (-0.64) Line 3: Zalkani 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 9 pts TBP @ 2.1, PLACED = +9.4* (+8.76) Line 4: Spectait 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 = 11 pts TBP @ 1.44, WON = +4.6* (+13.36) Line 5: Mutamared 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 = 13 pts TBP @ 1.99, LOST = -13 (+0.36) Line 6: Flowing Cape3 4 5 6 7 9 = 12 pts TBP @ 2.4, LOST = -12 (-11.64) Line 7: Matsunosuke 4 5 6 7 = 11 pts TBP @ 1.95, LOST = -11 (-22.64) Line 8: Hilbre Court 5 6 = 11 pts TBP @ 3.0 Betfair. 3.05 Southwell Hilbre Court has never really fulfilled the promise he showed with Brian Meehan but he was rated 85 back in 2007 when picking up a conditions race at Wolverhampton and even as recently as last summer he finished third in a decent class 3 handicap at Kempton Park off a mark of 82, finishing ahead of the useful polytrack performer Russki and around two and a half lengths off the very useful (subsequent listed winner) Premio Loco. The wins proved hard to come by though, and that prompted Meehan to run him in claiming company and it was out of a Wolverhampton race last October that he moved on to join his current yard. It took several runs until the handicapper cut him some slack but following a drop in his rating he started to run with more promise, and he finally won in handicap company on the 1st Feb this year when beating Barataria and reversing form with West End Lad from 20th Jan (both reoppose here). That win came off a rating of 63 in a class 5 handicap and for his next run he was stepped up in trip at Wolverhapton. Although he ended up finishing a miserable 10th of 13 he was hampered on more than one occassion and is better than the bare result suggested, a point reiterated during his last start when he finished second over this course and distance, travelling well and pulling well clear of the third but finding only the progressive More Time Tim too good. I think he is handicapped to win races and proven on the surface from an ideal draw I make this a solid place bet in class 5 company again. 3.0 matched for the place (Betfair).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread I haven't had time to watch the race yet but Hilbre Court was unplaced earlier. He was solid in the market but it appears was never in contention. It was a strange race with Highly Regal, in great form, drifting all the way out to 12/1 but still winning. I have three place bets I fancy tonight from the polytrack at Kempton. As was the case on Saturday, I won't be around to adjust stakes inbetween each bet so have worked on the assumption that all will be losers when calculating stakes for the next pick - which is just as well considering my current form. :( Results Line 1: Bold Adventure 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts TBP @ 2.1, PLACED = +8.36* (+8.36 overall) Line 2: Garlogs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts TBP @ 3.05, LOST = -9 (-0.64) Line 3: Zalkani 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 9 pts TBP @ 2.1, PLACED = +9.4* (+8.76) Line 4: Spectait 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 = 11 pts TBP @ 1.44, WON = +4.6* (+13.36) Line 5: Mutamared 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 = 13 pts TBP @ 1.99, LOST = -13 (+0.36) Line 6: Flowing Cape3 4 5 6 7 9 = 12 pts TBP @ 2.4, LOST = -12 (-11.64) Line 7: Matsunosuke 4 5 6 7 = 11 pts TBP @ 1.95, LOST = -11 (-22.64) Line 8: Hilbre Court 5 6 = 11 pts TBP @ 3.0, LOST = -11 (-33.64) Line 9: Brouhaha 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts TBP @ 3.8 Betfair Line 10: Grand Caiman, 8 pts TBP @ 3.75 Betfair Line 11: Jessica Wigmo, 9 pts TBP @ 2.76 Betfair

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6.50 Kempton Brouhaha (TBP) - Tom Dascombe's gelding was denied a four timer last time out but did not get a clear run. He is stepped up in trip here to a mile and a quarter but the manner of his victory on the 23rd Feb at Wolverhampton suggested that he will stay this far. He likes to be up with the pace, or infact set it, so his draw in stall 9 is ideal, and racing off a mark 5 lb higher than his last win I think he could manage a place. 3.8 matched on Betfair, trade out full stake at evens if possible. 8.20 Kempton Grand Caiman (TBP) - Richard Hannon's horse ran in a decent handicap race last time out up against the likes of Millville and Pevensey and stuck on well for second. He likes to make all so is well drawn to do that in stall 9 here and he races off a mark only 2 lbs higher than last time out. The jockey claims 3 lbs and I think he can go well at a price. 3.75 matched on Betfair, trade out full stake at evens in running if possible. 9.20 Kempton Jessica Wigmo (TBP) - This filly likes Kempton and has recorded all of her last three victories here. She is effective over both 7f and 8f and usually runs her race. She won here over 6f last month and although back up in trip here, she is usually ran over this trip, and always seems to be there or thereabouts. She is 5 lb higher than her last win but if you take into account apprentices allowances then she is up only 3 lb, and I think she may be able to stay on strongly late on to nab a place here. 2.76 matched on Betfair.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Brouhaha was a fantastic winner yesterday, getting caned into 6/1 from 12/1 at the time of posting. I was happy just to have the place bet, but automatically traded out at evens in running to avoid any potential near miss ala Flowing Cape. Grand Caiman and Jessica Wigmo were unplaced later on but I'm keeping going with it as I know I can make this work and banked 104 pts last month. Line 1: Bold Adventure 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts TBP @ 2.1, PLACED = +8.36* (+8.36 overall) Line 2: Garlogs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts TBP @ 3.05, LOST = -9 (-0.64) Line 3: Zalkani 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 9 pts TBP @ 2.1, PLACED = +9.4* (+8.76) Line 4: Spectait 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 = 11 pts TBP @ 1.44, WON = +4.6* (+13.36) Line 5: Mutamared 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 = 13 pts TBP @ 1.99, LOST = -13 (+0.36) Line 6: Flowing Cape3 4 5 6 7 9 = 12 pts TBP @ 2.4, LOST = -12 (-11.64) Line 7: Matsunosuke 4 5 6 7 = 11 pts TBP @ 1.95, LOST = -11 (-22.64) Line 8: Hilbre Court 5 6 = 11 pts TBP @ 3.0, LOST = -11 (-33.64) Line 9: Brouhaha 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts TBP @ 3.8, WON = +13.68*# (-19.96) Line 10: Grand Caiman, 8 pts TBP @ 3.75, LOST = -8 (-27.96) Line 11: Jessica Wigmo, 9 pts TBP @ 2.76, LOST = -9 (-36.96) Line 12: Guto 4 5 = 9 pts TBP @ 2.46 Betfair. *= 5 % commission deducted from winnings, # = traded out full stake in running. 2.30 Southwell With negatives over most of these and several non-runners I think Guto looks a very good bet at the price. His profile shows that he does his best work when a claimer is on top, and today Kelly Harrison takes off 5 lbs for him. He is one of four course and distance winners in the field but Russian Rocket may be a tad exposed and Weet A Surprise may need a run. Colorus benefitted greatly from Andrea Atzeni's valuable claim last time out but I think he is back to square one now Paul Pickard takes over in the saddle and I will glady oppose him with Bill Ratcliffe's runner who chased him home in third that day and was only a neck behind his stablemate. He is 2 lb lower than when he won here in November and even if you take into account claimers allowances he still looks feasibly treated here. Punching could be the danger but rarely wins, but I think he looks a solid place bet, 2.46 taken on Betfair.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Guto has just taken second, one more on the sand for today. Line 1: Bold Adventure 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts TBP @ 2.1, PLACED = +8.36* (+8.36 overall) Line 2: Garlogs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts TBP @ 3.05, LOST = -9 (-0.64) Line 3: Zalkani 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 9 pts TBP @ 2.1, PLACED = +9.4* (+8.76) Line 4: Spectait 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 = 11 pts TBP @ 1.44, WON = +4.6* (+13.36) Line 5: Mutamared 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 = 13 pts TBP @ 1.99, LOST = -13 (+0.36) Line 6: Flowing Cape3 4 5 6 7 9 = 12 pts TBP @ 2.4, LOST = -12 (-11.64) Line 7: Matsunosuke 4 5 6 7 = 11 pts TBP @ 1.95, LOST = -11 (-22.64) Line 8: Hilbre Court 5 6 = 11 pts TBP @ 3.0, LOST = -11 (-33.64) Line 9: Brouhaha 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts TBP @ 3.8, WON = +13.68*# (-19.96) Line 10: Grand Caiman, 8 pts TBP @ 3.75, LOST = -8 (-27.96) Line 11: Jessica Wigmo, 9 pts TBP @ 2.76, LOST = -9 (-36.96) Line 12: Guto 4 5 = 9 pts TBP @ 2.46, PLACED = 12.48* ( -24.48) Line 13: Canadian Danehill 4 5 9 = 13 pts TBP @ 1.92 Betfair *= 5 % commission deducted from winnings, # = traded out full stake in running. 4.25 Southwell Wotashirtful, Xpres Maite and Haajes have all been taken out of this race, leaving just six left in, but with Betfair paying out on three places for the place I think Canadian Danehill tbp could be the bet. Arganil is undoubtedly the least exposed runner in the field and open to further improvement. His soft ground wins on turf suggest the surface should suit, but having not seen a racecourse for 115 days I am ducking that one at the place price. Rebel Duke is proven to go well fresh and won well last time out over CD. he is up 6 lbs but should go well, but with that also a short price I think Canadian Danehill is a better bet as he could take third behind those two at a price. Since the handicapper dropped his rating, which was 95 at one point, he has started to run some solid races and won off 4 lb lower at Wolv in December. He's run up against many of these in the meantime but I think on these terms he can beat the Tatling and he had Pawan well back two starts ago. Obe Gold has a long break to overcome and his well being would have to be taken on trust, so I fancy Canadian Danehill to go close for Catlin. 1.92 TBP

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Canadian Danehill was unplaced. I am adjusting stakes for now, moving away from reverse labouchere. Line 1: Bold Adventure 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts TBP @ 2.1, PLACED = +8.36* (+8.36 overall) Line 2: Garlogs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts TBP @ 3.05, LOST = -9 (-0.64) Line 3: Zalkani 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 9 pts TBP @ 2.1, PLACED = +9.4* (+8.76) Line 4: Spectait 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 = 11 pts TBP @ 1.44, WON = +4.6* (+13.36) Line 5: Mutamared 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 = 13 pts TBP @ 1.99, LOST = -13 (+0.36) Line 6: Flowing Cape3 4 5 6 7 9 = 12 pts TBP @ 2.4, LOST = -12 (-11.64) Line 7: Matsunosuke 4 5 6 7 = 11 pts TBP @ 1.95, LOST = -11 (-22.64) Line 8: Hilbre Court 5 6 = 11 pts TBP @ 3.0, LOST = -11 (-33.64) Line 9: Brouhaha 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts TBP @ 3.8, WON = +13.68*# (-19.96) Line 10: Grand Caiman, 8 pts TBP @ 3.75, LOST = -8 (-27.96) Line 11: Jessica Wigmo, 9 pts TBP @ 2.76, LOST = -9 (-36.96) Line 12: Guto 4 5 = 9 pts TBP @ 2.46, PLACED = 12.48* ( -24.48) Line 13: Canadian Danehill 4 5 9 = 13 pts TBP @ 1.92, LOST = -13 (-37.48) Line 14: Carlton Scroop 12 pts @ 2.24 Line 15: Green Agenda 24 pts @ 1.38 *= 5 % commission deducted from winnings, # = traded out full stake in running. 8.50 Kempton Carlton Scroop was only a neck behind Prince Charlemagne two starts ago over course and distance but continues to run well and he does have winning course form to his name. Off this sort of mark I think he can go close again. 12 pts TBP @ 2.24 9.20 Kempton Green Agenda made a winning start to his handicap career last time out at Lingfield and shaped as if he would handle this step up in trip. He runs under a penalty here and I think he is the one to beat. 24 pts TBP @ 1.38

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread I think I was a bit unfortunate yesterday with Canadian Danehill running loose at the start and Carlton Scroop unseating his rider leaving the stalls. You can't do anything about such stochasticities as there is no way of forseeing them when looking over the form beforehand. Green Agenda restored my sanity by winning in the last though. 8.20 Wolv Tous Les Deux has been in good form of late and chased home Al Muheer last time out off this mark. He had won his two races prior to that, so arrives in good shape in general and with Spencer booked it looks as if Gary Moore thinks another good run should be on the cards. 20 pts taken TBP @ 1.41 Betfair.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread One more for tonight. 9.20 Wolv Little Richard - this one has often finished in and around the places and although 4 lb higher than his last win, did win off his current mark in March last year. He is a five time course and distance winner and has ran credibly in both starts this year, finishing 3rd at Linfgield and then 4th at the same track last time out. However, last time out he was up against Can Can Star, Dishdasha and Zalkani and I personally rate all of those better than your average class 6 middle distance performer and I think that is solid form for the grade. There has been a bit of money for Calzage but Little Richard may have the beating of him on a formline though Star Choice judging by his run on the 9th of January (the Sheridan horse over 8 lengths off Star Choice in a subsequent run). 20 pts @ 2.12 taken. EDIT: just added these in to round it off... Line 1: Bold Adventure 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts TBP @ 2.1, PLACED = +8.36* (+8.36 overall) Line 2: Garlogs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts TBP @ 3.05, LOST = -9 (-0.64) Line 3: Zalkani 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 9 pts TBP @ 2.1, PLACED = +9.4* (+8.76) Line 4: Spectait 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 = 11 pts TBP @ 1.44, WON = +4.6* (+13.36) Line 5: Mutamared 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 = 13 pts TBP @ 1.99, LOST = -13 (+0.36) Line 6: Flowing Cape3 4 5 6 7 9 = 12 pts TBP @ 2.4, LOST = -12 (-11.64) Line 7: Matsunosuke 4 5 6 7 = 11 pts TBP @ 1.95, LOST = -11 (-22.64) Line 8: Hilbre Court 5 6 = 11 pts TBP @ 3.0, LOST = -11 (-33.64) Line 9: Brouhaha 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts TBP @ 3.8, WON = +13.68*# (-19.96) Line 10: Grand Caiman, 8 pts TBP @ 3.75, LOST = -8 (-27.96) Line 11: Jessica Wigmo, 9 pts TBP @ 2.76, LOST = -9 (-36.96) Line 12: Guto 4 5 = 9 pts TBP @ 2.46, PLACED = 12.48* ( -24.48) Line 13: Canadian Danehill 4 5 9 = 13 pts TBP @ 1.92, LOST = -13 (-37.48) Line 14: Carlton Scroop 12 pts TBP @ 2.24, LOST = -12 (-49.48) Line 15: Green Agenda 24 pts TBP @ 1.38, WON = 8.66* (-40.82)<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Line 16: Tous les deux 20 pts TBP @ 1.41, PLACED = 7.79* (-33.03)

Line 17: Little Richard 20 pts TBP @ 2.12, LOST = -20 (-53.03)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread I'm bringing this to a close now the flat season is starting a week on Saturday and will be starting a new thread for that shortly. The vast majority of the bets for this thread were declared to 10 pt stakes (win or each way) and the final results of all of those bets were: No. of bets: 304 + 14 = 318 Strike rate (inc EW bets that yield profit): 91/318 (29 %) Total pts staked: 2997 + 140 = 3137 Total pts returned: 3070.94 + 36 = 3106.94 Overall profit: 73.94 - 104 = -30.06 Yield: -1 % I then moved on to place only betting. The first run of that yielded 104.4 pts profit (+49 % yield from 211 pts staked), with the second run yielding a loss of -53.03 pts (-25 % yield from 207 pts staked). Together that is an overall profit of +51.37 pts for the place bets (+12 % yield). So the thread is closed with an overall profit of +21.37 pts with these stats for everything together: Final No. of bets: 348 Final s/r: 108/348 (31 %) Final profit: +21.37 Final yield: + 0.6 % Thanks for reading.

[Spooner]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Was a great read Fin, thanks. :clap Well done being in profit. :ok

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread I wasn't sure what to make of the AW for this winter after a few bad experiences at the back end of last season. The thread did close in profit, but it was a negligable amount, and there was a lot of faffing around in finding a method of betting I was comfortable with. I don't intend on reverting back to place only betting or any fancy staking plans this time around, bets will be on a scale of 1-3 pts, win or each-way, and for the purposes of this thread, will be restricted to sprint races only. The reason for this is to save time on updating the thread. Recent results have hinted that all may not be lost with the all-weather just yet, and I will be placing more emphasis on value than I did last year, when I was trying to find who was the most likely winner of the race most of the time. These selections will be a mixture of finding horses that I think are overpriced, but those which I also feel have genuine grounds for winning. 4.00 Wolverhampton (5f, Class 3) This looks quite a difficult race to untangle but I think many have doubts cast over them. At first glance Orpenindeed looked a big price and he wasn't hit hit for his latest win, but I don't think this drop back to five furlongs will suit him ideally so am passing over. Doubtful Sound looks too high in the weights IMO, Canadian Danehill and Bertoliver would have preferred a lower draw and Gilt Edge Girl's consistency means the handicapper refuses to cut her any slack. Tabaret is better on grass, Stolt looks too high in the weights for now and Bosun Breeze, off bottom weight, has a massive absence to overcome. That prunes the list to Toms Laughter, Rebel Duke, Fantasy Explorer and Ivory Silk now Pawan is a non-runner. Tom's Laughter was a real star for Ron Harris last season and won more than his fair share of races. The inevitable rise in the handicap as a result has strifled his progression this term, but he has hinted at signs of a revival back on the all-weather of late, finishing third to Green Manilishi at Lingfield before fading over further behind Fullandby at Kempton when last seen, suggesting he may be better over the minimum trip today. Rebel Duke is a past polytrack winner but I have my doubts as to whether he can win off 88 on this surface. On fibresand, I'd probably chance him, but not today. Ivory Silk has an excellent record over five furlongs on polytrack and was beaten a short head off this mark by Wotashirtful at Great Leighs in a race she never got run to suit. Today she will get the pace she needs and is sure to run a race. Unfortunately for me Hugh Taylor beat me to the selection and the value has evaporated. The 8/1 this morning would have interested me but the 5/1 now does not! That leaves just one, the favourite, Fantasy Explorer. John Quinn's gelding benefitted from the switch back to the all-weather when landing a Kempton handicap last month, taking his polytrack record to 211, and when last seen he was a credible second off 88 at Kempton behind Green Manalishi. I don't think there was any shame in losing to Kevin Ryan's horse, who had slipped to a decent mark this season and is listed grade on his day. This is another horse that has been well-backed overnight though, into 11/4 from 9/2 last night and I think the percentage call is now to oppose at the current prices, so I will return to Tom's Laughter, who will get the race run to suit and may be open to a little bit more improvement in this sphere. Dane O'Neill is riding out of his skin at present and could make the difference. 10/1 Stan James, 0.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

4.00 Wolverhampton (5f, Class 3) Tom's Laughter, 10/1 SJ, 0.5 pt EW

Something I plan to do a bit more on this year: post-race analysis. The selection broke slowly out of the stalls, that is no big deal though really as he is a hold up horse and he didn't lose that much ground. As expected Stolt made the running from a low draw and the selection was held up at the back of the field. The pace was fast, with Rebel Duke and Canadian Danehill, who crossed over from a wide draw, hurrying along the leader. The winner and third travelled prominently throughout whilst the second, Ivory Silk, was held up at the back of the field alongside my selection, however, he opted for the inside for a run and was rewarded with place money whereas my boy was forced very wide turning for home on the outside and although finished his race well (I traded out at 2/1 in running easily) he lost yards being forced wide and could go closer next time out. The winner was always going well and proved she did have a bit more improvement left in the tank, something I overlooked in my pre-race analysis where I said I thought the handicapper was in control, because of her consistency, and hadn't cut her any slack.

Pos.	Dr.	Dist.	Horse	Wt	Jockey	Trainer	Age	SP
1	9		Gilt Edge Girl	8-8	Luke Morris	C G Cox	3	16/1
		tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, driven, edged left, led well inside final furlong, ran on towards finish opened 12/1
2	2	1½	Ivory Silk	8-7 b	S Drowne	J Gask	4	5/1
		slowly into stride, in rear, pushed along halfway, ridden, headway entering final furlong, ran on to snatch 2nd post touched 11/2
3	1	hd	Fantasy Explorer	8-11	J Quinn	J J Quinn	6	15/8 f
		close up travelling well, ridden to lead 1f out, edged right, headed inside final furlong, lost 2nd place post opened 5/2 touched 11/4 £1100-£400 £1000-£400 £900-£400 (x3) £800-£400 (x2)
4	12	½	Orpenindeed (IRE)	8-12 p	Andrea Atzeni (3)	M Botti	6	7/1
		chased leaders, ridden 2f out, kept on, not pace to challenge opened 10/1
5	11	s.h	Bertoliver	8-4	S Golam	S C Williams	5	28/1
		held up, ridden 2f out, headway 1f out, driven, stayed on towards finish opened 25/1 touched 33/1
6	4	nse	Doubtful Sound (USA)	9-4 p	G Baker	R Hollinshead	5	14/1
		slowly into stride, towards rear, ridden 2f out, kept on final furlong, never dangerous opened 12/1
7	6	nk	Toms Laughter	8-12 b	Dane O'Neill	R Harris	5	8/1
		slowly into stride, in rear, very wide into straight 2f out, kept on final furlong, nearest finish touched 9/1
8	5	½	Stolt (IRE)	8-6	P Pickard (5)	N Wilson	5	16/1
		led, wide into straight 2f out, soon ridden, headed 1f out, no extra when short of room inside final furlong opened 12/1
9	10	nk	Rebel Duke (IRE)	8-11	F Norton	Ollie Pears	5	12/1
		tracked leader, every chance when ridden, hung right 2f out, weakened final furlong opened 8/1
10	3	1¾	Tabaret	8-7	A Culhane	R M Whitaker	6	10/1
		mid-division, ridden halfway, weakened over 1f out
11	13	1	Canadian Danehill (IRE)	9-1 p	N Callan	R M H Cowell	7	33/1
		raced wide, prominent, ridden, weakened over 1f out opened 25/1
12	8	2½	Bosun Breese	8-4	Liam Jones	T D Barron	4	20/1
		mid-division, ridden halfway, soon weakened opened 16/1

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Bet 2: 6.00 Kempton Haajes is a NR so nine go to post. Shifting Star heads the weights and should get the race run to suit. He has finished 3rd and 4th on two polytrack runs to date which is fair form. His recent turf form looks poor though even if sometimes in good company and 6/1 looks plenty short enough on this return from a break. Fantasy Explorer is holding his form well and ran respectably last time out when third to Gilt Edge Girl. Moore is booked, but he probably doesn't have that much in hand of the handicapper now. Beckermet makes the marathon trek from the Lakes for a yard that is in rude health at present. He has tumbled down the weights and was a fair second to a Godolphin improver on the AW when last seen. His draw is offputting though and he isn't guaranteed an easy lead. Beat The Bell was a tremendous servant to Alan Bailey last year. He is now with Jamie Osbourne but could be ready to win again off this sort of mark and he is versatile tactics wise. He hasn't had a heavy summer campaign and has dropped a few pounds to a more realistic mark. The inconsistent Sundae is unproven on the surface compared to some so is passed over and of more appeal is Ray of Joy, a CD winner. She was a respectable second to the improving Get Carter recently and acts on polytrack. She is creeping up the weights but is progressing and the rises look warranted. Princess Valerina is the outsider of the field, she is 2 lb lower than her last win and she does relish the AW. However, she may be found out off this mark in this company and I am opposing, along with Earlsmedic, who may not get the race run to suit. River Kirov stayed on well last time out but may need a step up in trip to escape the clutches of the handicapper, so I am returning to Beat The Bell. 12/1 William Hill, 0.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

Bet 2: 6.00 Kempton Beat The Bell - 12/1 William Hill, 0.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

Post race analysis: Beat The Bell (drifted out to SP 16/1) never looked like winning tonight. He broke reasonably enough and was settled in behind the leading trio and seemed to travel well enough in the early parts of the race. As they straightened up he found a gap but couldn't make any late headway. Perhaps he could do with dropping a few pounds in the handicap, although the race was not run at a particularly fast pace - not as fast as it looked on paper - and that wouldn't have helped. Beckermet crossed over from a wide draw and dictated the tempo but Earlsmedic was quite happy to surrender the lead under Andrea Atzeni and settled his mount in third. The Stuart Williams yard is in good form at present (Best in Class won on poly yesterday) and although Ryan Moore looked all over the winner at the 1f pole after pressing the button, Atzeni managed to find extra out of his mount to battle to the line and land the victory. The pair had clashed recently at Kempton and the Williams runner was 5 lbs better off for an approximate 2 length beating that day. The well backed Shifting Star kept on well from further back in the field and considering the pace wasn't overly generous, looks the one to take from the race as this marks a return to form. River Kirov was disappointing but notably, drifted out to 15/2.

Pos.	Dr.	Dist.	Horse	Wt	Jockey	Trainer	Age	SP
1	7		Earlsmedic	8-5 e	Andrea Atzeni (3)	S C Williams	4	6/1
		opened 8/1 £3000-£240
2	8	½	Fantasy Explorer	8-13	R L Moore	J J Quinn	6	9/4 f
		opened 15/8 £800-£400
3	4	2	Shifting Star (IRE)	9-4 t	A Kirby	W R Swinburn	4	5/1
		opened 6/1
4	10	s.h	Ray of Joy	8-9	J Quinn	J R Jenkins	3	7/1
		opened 11/2
5	1	¾	Beckermet (IRE)	8-13	N Callan	R F Fisher	7	5/1
		opened 7/1 touched 15/2 £3000-£200
6	9	2¼	Beat The Bell	8-13	S W Kelly	J A Osborne	4	16/1
		opened 14/1
7	2	¾	Princess Valerina	8-7	J F McDonald	D Haydn Jones	5	33/1
8	6	6	River Kirov (IRE)	8-5	Martin Dwyer	M Wigham	6	15/2
		opened 7/1
9	5	7	Sundae	8-12 b1	Jack Mitchell (3)	C F Wall	5	10/1
		opened 14/1
Non-Runners
NR			Haajes	8-10	R Winston	J Balding	5

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 7.20 Wolverhampton Matthew Salaman is an up and coming trainer whose reputation is fast growing and was enhanced at Kempton only the other day when he saddled Fernando Torres - who joined his yard as a maiden from Dandy Nicholls - to victory at a huge price. He sounds out Bountiful Bay tonight and if he is similarly able to work his touch with this former Brian Meehan recruit then the filly could go well at a nice each-way price. This is an apprentice handicap where they bet 2/1 the field and I am not overly keen on the favourite - North South Divide. He is entitled to improve now with Kevin Ryan but I feel the price is too short in view of his recent form and am happy to take him on. Bountiful Bay acts well over this trip on polytrack and has placed several times off this sort of mark, chasing home Malapropism off this mark at Lingfield in October (btn 1 length). She races off the same mark here and with the yard in such good form and with her dropping into an apprentices race where shocks can happen I have had a speculative punt. 16/1 Bet 365, 0.25 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

7.20 Wolverhampton Bountiful Bay. 16/1 Bet 365, 0.25 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

Not a race to read too much into I don't think. This was a class six handicap run between plenty of inconsistent beasts and it wouldn't be a race I will be returning to as a source of future winners. The selection broke well but raced keenly, before being settled in mid-division. She came under pressure coming round the bend and, having drifted out to 33/1 for the off, looked beaten 3f out. The winner was impossible to fancy at the starting price though, although he was steamed into 5/2 from 8/1 which did seems not too bad. He was an Irish raider that had won on the AW in his native country and was handicapped to have a chance, but the way he was backed suggests someone knew something and he came cruising up on the outside as they entered the straight. Colombard battled away on the far rail but just quite couldn't hold him. The selection was only a minimum stakes bet anyway, hoping to capitalise on the trainers promising form, so no sleep will be lost over this result!

Pos.	Dr.	Dist.	Horse	Wt	Jockey	Trainer	Age	SP
1	4		Diamond Fire (IRE)	8-11 bt	S P Ryan	A McGuinness	5	5/2 f
		held up, headway over 2f out, stayed on to lead post opened 8/1
2	9	hd	Colombard (IRE)	8-12 b	R J Rowe	Pat Morris	4	9/1
		tracked leaders, led inside final furlong, soon hung left, caught post opened 6/1
3	5	¾	Cheery Cat (USA)	8-12 p	D Kenny	J Balding	5	11/2
		tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong opened 9/2
4	13	½	Headache	9-0 bt	Matthew Lawson	B W Duke	4	5/1
		prominent, led 2f out, headed inside final furlong, no extra opened 9/2 touched 11/2
5	10	nk	Berrymead	8-8	Laura Pike	Miss A Stokell	4	25/1
		slowly into stride, held up, headway over 1f out, one pace touched 28/1
6	6	½	Easy Wonder (GER)	8-9 b	Holly Hall	I A Wood	4	33/1
		held up in rear, headway and ridden over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong
7	8	2	Sandy Par	8-8 p	Ryan Clark (3)	J M Bradley	4	20/1
		chased leaders ridden over 1f out no extra inside final furlong touched 18/1
8	12	¾	Kina Jazz	8-10 v1	R Powell	J Ryan	3	20/1
		led, headed 2f out, weakened enteirng final furlong opened 18/1
9	11	1¼	Bountiful Bay	9-0	Heather Cork (7)	Matthew Salaman	4	33/1
		tracked leaders, weakened over 1f out opened 25/1
10	1	nk	Roman Maze	8-12	K Fox	W M Brisbourne	9	14/1
		held up, effort over 1f out, never dangerous opened 16/1
11	7	1	North South Divide (IRE)	8-8	M E Power (7)	K A Ryan	5	7/2
		held up, never dangerous opened 5/2 touched 4/1
12	3	2	Neat 'n Tidy	8-8	J Bruning	A E Jones	5	100/1
		held up, effort 2f out, weakened over 1f out opened 66/1
Non-Runners
NR			Gracie's Games	8-9	J Cavanagh	R J Price	3

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Bet 4: 3.05 Lingfield Green Manalishi has been rejuvenated of late, has capitalised on a drop in his mark and showed he was ready to win races when a credible fourth in the Portland in September. A placed finish in the Silver Cup at Ayr followed and he has since won two handicaps, including one on the all-weather over 5f here, as well as holding his form well inbetween. In summary, he is right at the top of his game again and with the yard booking Jamie Spencer - which is a very strong hint from Kevin Ryan (combo has figures of 14-44, S/R 32 %, LSP +15.13) - another big run should be expected. He has won listed races in the past and seems equally adept on polytrack as turf. 11/1 William Hill, 1 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

Bet 4: 3.05 Lingfield Green Manalishi

A really poor run from the selection. Starting from stall 12- widest of all, and with Jamie Spencer booked to ride, I was expecting him to be ridden in mid-division, but he actually raced prominently in about fourth position throughtout after breaking well. With the way the race panned out, it was a race where you wanted to be up with the pace, which makes his performance even more the poorer. He pulled hard in the early stages but was ideally positioned in the straight if he has been in good form - he seems to have gone over the top now. The winner, Jaconent, broke well from the centre and made all throughout, which wasn't expected really as there were other front runners in the ranks. Nevertheless, she led from pillar to post, and this is another fine performance from a filly that has progressed tremendously this season for David Barron. Credit to connections. The fact Ebraam, who rain in claiming grade recently, took second, devalues the form, but he was simply well positioned in a race that didn't suit those coming from off the pace. With that in mind, Himalya, has actually done quite well to take third under Ryan Moore. He has been tried in Group company previously on fastish ground, this was his AW debut. He emerges from the race with credit in my eyes, as does Prescription who ran on at the death having been forced wide but wasn't suited with how the race was run.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread A change of plan now. I'm looking at races across all distances, except only my strongly fancies personal bets will come in here. I will keep the small, minimal stakes for interest bets in the meeting threads/blog. One for tonight at Wolver. 7.50 Wolverhampton Gallantry has been waiting patiently for a race like this, one that should be run at a decent clip, and whilst he has been banging his head against the wall due to races run at snails pace repeatedly of late, the handicapper has sympathised and cut his rating. A winner off 7 lbs higher on this surface in February he is undeniably well handicapped on 78 and there are worse 5 lb claimers around than Andrew Heffernan, which makes his weight tonight look even more appealing. He acts over a trip this short and looks overpriced in my opinion. 16/1 Bet 365, 6 pt win/2 pt place (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 7.50 Wolverhampton Gallantry - A further 8 pts staked TBP (3 places) at 6/1 with Bet 365.

[jayalexander]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Thanks for the tip. Got him at 20 on Betfair, for the win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

Thanks for the tip. Got him at 20 on Betfair' date=' for the win.[/quote'] Sorry about that one, came nowhere, I just haven't been getting the breaks this month so having a day off the AW today.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 4.45 Kempton Spinning Bailiwick won over this trip at Lingfield and won a maiden over this course previously so that is two boxes ticked. He was put up a stone in the weights but managed to get up late to win at Lingfield last time out and a 4 lb rise seems fair for that win. Stepping back up to 6f he could continue his improvement under George Baker who is 5-19 in the last fortnight. 3/1 Bet 365, 6 pts win

[weeyin58]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread I have just read your post, what a fantastic mind of information!! I like AW racing, so you info is going to help me a lot !! so thanks for all your efforts in sharing this !:clap

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread no probs weeyin :ok I should probably go back over those old stats and see if the same applies to results run this year really. Another bet for today which I think is good value 4.15 Kempton Benandonner - recruited by Mike Murphy who turned Ebraam out well quickly in a similar sort of race (listed) recently. Horse has held his form well this turf season whilst being in grips of handicapper but now dropped below last winning mark from Ripon in June. Well drawn, prominent racing style should benefit in slowly run race here devoid of pacemaker. 16/1 Stan James, 6 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).