Fintron's AW Thread

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Thanks for the words of support guys, gonna have a day off tomorrow and take a look at things. Russ, you hit the nail on the head with points 1) and 2). I missed a few winners last week that I had posted in the meetings threads so reverted back to throwing in 2-3 picks per day in the days that followed. Needless to say when I did that, they all lost. Like yoy say, long term, Im sure the figures would look more favourable only including the strong fancies. Point two about the confidence factor is bang on. I made the decision at the start of the month to back 5-1 to 10/1 shots with the expectation of only having to hit one or two amongst a long losing run to stay in profit. But seeing the likes of Noah Jameel (12/1) finish neck second I have found quite demoralising, hence the return to EW betting. About betting dry, I have given myself no other option because although all bets above are declared to level stakes, I have recently lost discipline and bet disproportinately on some and decimated funds (especially since I've gone win only). I've taken the decision to empty whats left in my betting bank to put towards the PL racehorse share that is due in the next few months. I'm going to investigate various staking plans with a view to setting up a new betting bank at the start of March after pay day.

[RussP]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

I'm going to investigate various staking plans with a view to setting up a new betting bank at the start of March after pay day.

Staking plans, always an interesting subject:ok For what its worth, I always bet to level stakes. IMO, if I'm to have a bet, it's because I strongly fancy the horse so stakes shouldn't be influenced by other factors such as price or current size of betting bank. There is nothing more frustrating than reducing your stakes on a 25/1 shot, then seeing it romp home. Similarly, if you bet a % of your betting bank, remember that you will always have your biggest bet on a loser. Sad but true:ok

[Trotter]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Perhaps a change of scenery would do you good, Fin........ Don't know how long you've been concentrating on the AW but I always think that about 3 months is my limit on any 'speciality'...........after that time I get to know the horses too well and my judgment goes to pieces. I begin to see them as soap opera characters rather than as handicap marks, winning trips, etc. I reckon that as soon as you look at a race and recognise all the names, you're in trouble. ..........familiarity clouds the judgment. Perhaps a switch to 3 mile chases for a couple of months would refresh the juices ?...................:ok

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

Perhaps a change of scenery would do you good, Fin........ Don't know how long you've been concentrating on the AW but I always think that about 3 months is my limit on any 'speciality'...........after that time I get to know the horses too well and my judgment goes to pieces. I begin to see them as soap opera characters rather than as handicap marks, winning trips, etc. I reckon that as soon as you look at a race and recognise all the names, you're in trouble. ..........familiarity clouds the judgment. Perhaps a switch to 3 mile chases for a couple of months would refresh the juices ?...................:ok

I think I'll have another stab at the AW and see how it goes, as I've never managed to win regularly at the jumps. If profit doesn't improve then I'll take some time out and wait for the flat season to start. Bring on Doncaster, can't wait :tongue2 I am going to try something a little different in the meantime and follow the reverse labouchere staking system for a while and see how it goes. I will start with a starting stake of 8 pts and plan to 'check out' when 100 pts profit is reached. 4.40 Wolverhampton Flowing Cape TBP (5/6 Paddypower) Won well when returning from a break last time and looks to have something about him judging by a couple of decent juvenile efforts, notably a neck second to Stimulation at Newbury and a second to Karl Barg at Doncaster when the leading pair finished clear of the field. He drops back in trip here but looks to have the pace to be effective over 6f too and even under a penalty I think there could be more to come. He is well drawn on the inside and I think he should be up there with the likes of Tamagin and Nightjar to contest a place at the very least. Line 1: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Stake is thus 8 pts. If selection wins, stake on next selection is 9 pts. If selection loses, stake on next selection is 8 pts.

[Trotter]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Nice winner, fin.........back in the saddle !......... :clap

[Darby O Gill]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

Perhaps a change of scenery would do you good, Fin........ Don't know how long you've been concentrating on the AW but I always think that about 3 months is my limit on any 'speciality'...........after that time I get to know the horses too well and my judgment goes to pieces. I begin to see them as soap opera characters rather than as handicap marks, winning trips, etc. I reckon that as soon as you look at a race and recognise all the names, you're in trouble. ..........familiarity clouds the judgment. Perhaps a switch to 3 mile chases for a couple of months would refresh the juices ?...................:ok

So true.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Hi Fin, Just a quick note to say you were one of the reasons I started to post on here. I can't get PL at work, but I've got your blog saved as a favourite, and I read that every day. There are some cracking write ups and some excellent winners. After my few 'two line' posts I realise how much effort it takes to keep that going. Keep up the good work... Steve PS. off today - but with me daughters having just put High School Musical 3 on as soon as they got up - wish I was at work!!!

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Cheers guys, that winner was more of a relief than anything. I think I got a little bit carried away at the time though in backing it for the Lincoln (66/1) in the aftermath of the race :lol I'm going to keep with the reverse Labouchere system again tonight Line 1: Flowing Cape 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 - WON (8 pts @ 5/6) Line 2: Common Diva 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts TBP @ 11/4 Blue Square 8.50 Kempton The market is all wrong in this in my opinion and I would have expected Common Diva to be around the 5/1 mark. She is currently 11/1 and can be backed to place at 11/4, which I feel is a top value bet considering her recent form. She's won both of her last two races in handicaps and although this is tougher under a 6 lb penalty, she is clearly in good form and from a favourable, high, draw should be capable of filling one of the places. Apart from Millway Beach I think there are negatives about all of those that are shorter than her in the betting and I think 11/4 for the place, when 1/5 odds are being paid for each-way backers, means this bet is worth chancing with three places paid. Just to clarify, 9 pts @ 11/4 for tonight.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Common Diva was well beaten and unplaced yesterday so the results now look like Line 1: Flowing Cape 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts,Won,+6.67 pts Line 2: Common Diva 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts, Lost, -9 pts Line 3 (todays bet): Blue Charm 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 9 pts TBP @ 6/5 Paddypower 4.05 Southwell My full write up for this race is in the Southwell thread but basically, I think Blue Charm not only looks to hold solid claims of finishing in behind the two market leaders, I also think he could upset them and possibly win. He has winning form on the surface, there is reason to beleive he will cope with a step back down in trip as the slower going may compensate, and the form of his recent runs has been solid, with several form boosts noted. He also drops in grade from his last run and I think he can go well here. If the selection wins the stake on the next selection will be 11 pts, if the selection loses, the next stake will be 9 pts.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Line 1: Flowing Cape 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts,Won,+6.67 pts Line 2: Common Diva 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts, Lost, -9 pts Line 3: Blue Charm 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 9 pts, Won, +10.8 pts Line 4: Formidable Guest 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 = 11 pts TBP @ 5/6 Blue Sq 7.20 Kempton Formidable Guest is in rude health at the minute and I fancy her to claim a place here. She was always travelling well last time and even under a penalty here I think she remains the one to beat. She has been running very consistently and made the frame on most of her recent starts if you exclude an apprentices race. She's got course winning form and the trip poses no problems. The yard are in decent form and the jockeys won on her before too. 11 pts @ 5/6 Blue Sq.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread As promised, a long overdue overhaul of the notebook. I started in October more or less when I opened my thread with the intention of weekly updates, but just never kept up to it. I've hacked out a lot of the content as it was 17 pages long, I like the format of Billy's notebook and followed the same here, with horses listed alphabetically and a brief line for each. If anyone wants further details on a particular pick more info can be found previously on the thread and a lot will also be found through the search box on the top corner of my blog as about 90 % of these have been old naps at some point. Others are ones I've noticed as been unlucky in running etc. I don't back all of these next time out, but they are a mix of personal favs and ones I will give closer attention to next time out. Alexander Huricane - 27/10/08 - loves Wolves, prolific over variety of distances.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Acrosstheuniverse – 16/1/09 – maiden 4^th working out well, pedigree suggests could handle surface and of interest handicapping.

Antillia – 18/1/09 – very well handicapped, ran too badly to be true last time and worth another chance as was lame last time. Step up in trip may help.

Anabelle’s Charm – 30/1/09 – very well handicapped, can forgive last run after she was far too big in the betting – all may not have been well.

American Spin – 5/2/09 – open to significant improvement ran with promise at Wolves. Form of maiden involving Napper Tandy reads well.

Black n Brew 10/12/08 – wants stepping up in trip, some useful juvenile form (second to Khor Dubai, Crystal Moments etc).

Blue Charm – 19/2/09 – been running very consistently, handles 6-7f on either poly or fibresand, may want step back up to 7f next time.

Boss Hog – 6/2/09 – needs dropping back to 7f on sand.

Bridgewater Boys 3/11/08 - plater that goes well over middle distances at any AW course. Brouhaha 27/2/09 - versatile tactics wise, can win from front or tracking leaders, won apprentices race more comfortably than winning margin suggested and could win again nto. Bushveld – 28/1/09 – ran sound race when second to <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />BarwellBridge, drop back to a mile should be in his favour.

Chjimes – 7/2/09 – wasn’t suited with race run at a dawdle today and badly hampered on inside rail late on.

Comeintothespace – 7/2/09 – back with old trainer, fair effort when turning for home wide last time.

Copperwood – 12/2/09 – new tactics improving his fortunes and can bring about a win soon.

Desert Strike - 13/1/09 – lightly raced sprinter open to improvement.

Diriculous: 27/10/08 - progressed well in handicaps and looks like will have to run in conditions/listed races now off this mark. Had plenty to find at the weights at Great Leighs but came back for more at the line with gutsy effort.

Dynamo Dane - 27/10/08 – impressed me when second to 1/5 Audemar in a maiden. Put in a gutsy display and would be of interest in another AW maiden NTO. Won A Doncaster maiden next time out. Now qualified for handicap mark.

Dvinsky – 30/12/08 – likes to make all, dangerous if allowed soft lead.

Fancy Footsteps 12/12/08 – promising handicap debut behind two progressive sorts, shaped well and well handicapped off 63.

Flowing Cape – 17/2/09 – looks to have a bit of class about him, won last two well, some decent juvenile form.

Harald Bluetooth – 20/1/09 – injured but still won when Spencer dragged him over line to narrowly win. Was entered in Lincoln but likely to miss that, can do well in some top AW races though with top trainer.

How's She Cuttin - 3/11/08 – back down to decent mark, goes well from front, ideally at Southwell as best turf form on soft.

Incomparable – 5/2/09 – very consistent, string of near misses, winner waiting to happen.

Kaolak - 3/11/08 – fourth in hot Newmarket maiden, US bred so could handle AW.

Kargan - 23/2/09 - improving with every race now handicapping, finished strongly on outside after turned for home wide today. Kingsgate Storm – 28/12/08 – begins life in handicaps off 80 and can make mockery of that if able to rediscover form of Ascot maiden in June. May have needed last race as pipeopener.

Keepsgettingbetter – 8/2/09 – looks well handicapped and headgear will help.

L’Hirondelle – 28/1/09 – chased home Harald Bluetooth, open to improvement as unexposed.

Lyceana – 27/12/08 – could be well weighted judging by formline with Bullet Man and Fossol and step up in trip can help.

Matsunosuke – 12/12/08 – almost nicked the win from the Game the other day, looks in good shape, likes to chase a fast pace.

Millville - 3/1/09 – consistent horse, carries big weights well.

Milne Bay - 5/1/09 – been in great form, form of Wolves race with River Kirov and Fancy Footsteps working out well, open to improvement.

Noah Jameel – 12/2/09 – wants stepping up in trip, been finishing races well only a matter of time until he wins.

Nimmy’s Special – 7/2/09 – finished strongly on more than one occasion and may need step up beyond 7f.

Plush 12/12/08 – Gets on well with Ross Atkinson, progressive, and loves 9f at Wolves. 27/2/09 - needs Atkinson back on to benefit from his claim.

Precision Break: 3/11/08 - hosed up at Great Leighs by 6 lengths last week, destroying the field with ease. Goes over 12f up to two miles and has won at Kempton and Wolverhampton too. Hugely progressive type.

Premio Loco 3/1/09 – to be followed in listed and conditions races from a likeable yard.

Rainbow Seeker: - 3/11/08 won with a bit in hand at Wolverhampton on Friday. Stepped up in grade and won under a penalty on his last run so he keeps improving and could still be ahead of the handicapper. Redding Colliery – 27/10/08 hosed up in maiden, qualifiers for handicap mark next time out.

Rebel City– 5/1/09 – form of recent maidens working out well

River Kirov 7/1/09 – another putting together a nice winning run, highly progressive, could be more to come

Russki – 27/10/08 - Effective over 7-8f, especially at Kempton. Won going away when last seen, likely to be moving into listed races soon. Speedy and effective from a high draw at Kempton.

Sabre Light – 30/11 – prolific plater could be more to come at that level.

Sabancaya 4/1/09- has been crying out for a step up in trip, open to improvement and form to Cosmea reads well.

Scarab – 26/12/08 – quirky but unexposed horse from decent yard that looks well handicapped off 77.

Suits Me 30/11 – likes to make all and probably too good for handicaps now. Best if allowed an easy lead.

St Trinians - 27/10/08 - lightly raced filly goes well over 9f at Wolv if handed inside draw.

Stand Guard - 24/1/09 –consistent horse just needs to drop a couple of pounds maybe. Smarty Socks - 3/11/08 – well handicapped on pick of old form, seems to have rediscovered winning touch and plenty of room for manoevre still rated in 60’s.

Spectait - 6/3/09 -won in good style last night, would be of interest turned out under a penalty again at Wolves if Jonjo races him again before the lincoln at the end of the month. Stabinios King – 26/1/09 – stray horse unsettled him last time but bolted up prior to that

Teasing 11/12/08 – coped well with step up in trip last time and well handicapped on pick of old form

Tarkheena Prince - 3/11/08 - made his fibresand debut at Southwell yesterday and won well under Jamie Spencer. Is proven up to 13f and could be worth following. They All Laughed – 9/2/09 – staying on well of late, consistent.

War of the Roses - 28/10/08 - Lingfield specialist 12-13f.

Wine n’ Dine 17/12/08 – 4^th to General Elliot and few other decent types in maidens, looks well handicapped off 72, unexposed and more to come.27/2/09 - wants further than 1m 4f now.

Veloso - 3/11/08 - another middle distance plater that goes well at Wolv or GL.

Zuwaar – 30/12/08 – well backed recently and been knocking on the door off this sort of mark.

Zalkani – 14/2/09 – hit a wall of runners last time, hope for a better run over 13f next time.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Both of yesterday's bets placed (both 2nd). Results now read: Line 1: Flowing Cape 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts @ 5/6, WON, +6.67 pts Line 2: Common Diva 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts @11/4, LOST, -9 pts Line 3: Blue Charm 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 9 pts @ 6/5, PLACED, +10.8 pts Line 4: Formidable Guest 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 = 11 pts @ 5/6, PLACED, +9.17 Line 5: Carlton Scroop 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 = 13 pts @ 8/11 TBP Paddy's. 8.20 Wolverhampton Carlton Scroop comes into this race in consistent form and I would be very disappointed if he couldn't run into the places. He did well to finish a neck second to short priced favourite Prince Charlemagne last time out and arrives in decent nick having made the frame on all of his last four starts. He picked up a Kempton handicap off a 9 lb lower mark in January, but he has been holding his form well since and even after a 3 lb rise here I fancy him to go well. Although his recent win came over shorter, for some time he has shaped as if a step up in trip would suit and indeed, his one-length second to Sir Liam at the end of last month showed he stays this far. He has course winning form and with an inform jockey on top I think he can go well off joint top-weight. 13 pts TBP @ 8/11 Paddypower.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Line 1: Flowing Cape 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts @ 5/6, WON, +6.67 pts Line 2: Common Diva 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts @11/4, LOST, -9 pts Line 3: Blue Charm 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 9 pts @ 6/5, PLACED, +10.8 pts Line 4: Formidable Guest 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 = 11 pts @ 5/6, PLACED, +9.17 Line 5: Carlton Scroop 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 = 13 pts @ 8/11, PLACED +9.45. Line 6: Antillia 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 = 15 points TBP @ 1.99 Betfair 2.30 Lingfield Antillia's (nb) run last time was too bad to be true. She never settled and it turned out afterwards she was lame. I think she is very well handicapped based upon the form of her maiden 4th to Shavansky, as Wine 'n Dine and Cape Express have made a favourable impression in handicaps off much higher marks than the 67 she runs off here. She has shown an ability to get her head infront, when picking up a course handicap over this sort of trip and I think she is set for a massive run with the step up in trip in her favour. In a rush today, can't hang around for a place price from Paddy's or Blue Square, so 1.99 from Betfair taken for today. 15 pts.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Line 1: Flowing Cape 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts @ 5/6, WON, +6.67 pts Line 2: Common Diva 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts @11/4, LOST, -9 pts Line 3: Blue Charm 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 9 pts @ 6/5, PLACED, +10.8 pts Line 4: Formidable Guest 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 = 11 pts @ 5/6, PLACED, +9.17 Line 5: Carlton Scroop 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 = 13 pts @ 8/11, PLACED +9.45. Line 6: Antillia 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 = 15 pts @ 1.99 PLACED Line 7: Davids Mark 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 15 = 17 pts @ 1.85 Betfair TBP 2.50 Lingfield Davids Mark - won over course and distance recently, race fit, holding form well and Obe Royal has boosted the form of his second at kempton last time out. Not around to take a Paddy's or Blue Sq price tomorrow so taken what was on offer on Betfair just now - 1.85.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Just to update my results using the old staking system to bring everything up to date to the point where I started place betting and reverse labouchere staking.......

9/2 Keepsgettingbetter (12th) -10

10/2 They All Laughed (3rd) -10

10/2 Dansant (2nd) -10

10/2 Thoughtsofstardom (4th) -10

11/2 Noah Jameel (2nd) -10

11/2 Teasing (4th) -10

12/2 Copperwood (3rd) -10

12/2 Jordi Roper (6th) -10

12/2 Figro Flyer (3rd) -10

12/2 Mrs Bun (4th) -10

12/2 Redding Colliery (3rd) +11

12/2 Southandwest (2nd) +5

14/2 Ebraam (3rd) -10

15/2 Only A Game (7th) -10

Overall results Bets to date: 304 + 14 = 318 Strike rate (inc EW bets that yield profit): 91/318 (29 %) Total pts staked: 2997 + 140 = 3137 Total pts returned: 3070.94 + 36 = 3106.94 Overall profit: 73.94 - 104 = -30.06 Yield: -1 % Thread Records Biggest priced winner(s): Back in the Red, Sofia's Star 16/1 (17/11/08, 30/11/08) Most backed winner: Back in the Red (16/1 advised into 11/1 SP) Longest winning run: 4 (14/12/08) Longest losing run: 15 (1/12/08 - 6/12/08) Looking back at those figures they aren't as bad as I initially thought, although recent selections were wearing away at the profit, in terms of a yield, overall losses are minimal at 1 % and even with a simple strategy revision, such as staking each-way instead of on the nose, those last 14 results could kept the thread in profit overall. However, I am keeping a seperate P/L record for the new bets which have been backed to place and think that this could be the way forward as plenty of selections hit a place, but not enough win to justify backing win only.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Reverse labouchere results to date: Line 1: Flowing Cape 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts @ 5/6, WON, +6.67 pts (_6.67 overall) Line 2: Common Diva 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts @11/4, LOST, -9 (-2.33) Line 3: Blue Charm 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 9 pts @ 6/5, PLACED, +10.8 (+8.47) Line 4: Formidable Guest 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 = 11 pts @ 5/6, PLACED, +9.17 (17.64) Line 5: Carlton Scroop 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 = 13 pts @ 8/11, PLACED +9.45 (+27.09) Line 6: Antillia 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 = 15 pts @ 1.99 PLACED +14.11* (+41.2) Line 7: Davids Mark 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 15 = 17 pts @ 1.85, LOST, -17 (+24.2) * = 5 % commission deducted from winnings. For comparison, backing all to 8 pt level stakes in this time would have yielded +20.26 pts profit

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 3.10 Wolverhampton Reverse labouchere results to date: Line 1: Flowing Cape 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts @ 5/6, WON, +6.67 pts (_6.67 overall) Line 2: Common Diva 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts @11/4, LOST, -9 (-2.33) Line 3: Blue Charm 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 9 pts @ 6/5, PLACED, +10.8 (+8.47) Line 4: Formidable Guest 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 = 11 pts @ 5/6, PLACED, +9.17 (17.64) Line 5: Carlton Scroop 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 = 13 pts @ 8/11, PLACED +9.45 (+27.09) Line 6: Antillia 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 = 15 pts @ 1.99 PLACED +14.11* (+41.2) Line 7: Davids Mark 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 15 = 17 pts @ 1.85, LOST, -17 (+24.2) Line 8: Brouhaha 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 = 16 pts @ 1.5 TBP Betfair 3.10 Wolverhampton Dual course and distance winner Brouhaha looks the form pick and most likely winner of the Enjoy The Lucky 7 Group Offer Apprentice Handicap at Dunstall Park this afternoon. Despite several near misses, he had never won a race before a move to Tom Dascombe and a return to the all-weather brought about back-to-back handicap successes on his last two starts. As he likes to lead, his draw in stall 1 is perfect and although he won by only half a length last time out, he was always doing enough to hold the fast finishing Ours, after kicking clear in the straight. A 3 lb rise for that win seems fair and with Dascombe calling upon Ross Atkinson- who is able to claim a useful 3 lbs here - that rise in the weights is counteracted and he should go well again. The trainer is in outstanding form at present, saddling five winners from his last seven runners, and talented apprentice Atkinson can extend the winning run here. 1.5 TBP taken on Betfair.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread A few from the notebook race at the weekend. Matsunosuke and Chijmes both won at Lingfield and had conditions in their favour. In the case of Chijmes, he got the race run at a faster pace than when behind Mutamared and got a clearer run. Matsunosuke manged to pick off Duff late on and also had the race run to suit. Suits Me and Antillia were also in action. I didn't back Suits Me as I thought he would be challenged for the lead by Kandidate, and that was a wise decision as Re Barolo got uo close home. I did back Antillia, however, who finished back in third. I've not watched the race yet but will watch on the ATR archive before next run but it wasn't beaten by that far so all is not lost with that one I don't think. Chijmes is in action tomorrow and will get the race run to suit with Wotashirtful in the line up. However, it is a small field so there is no option for EW insurance so Ive not decided whether to keep faith again. Resplendent Alpha is the other hold up horse that is likely to finish well and could challenge for one of the places. Two horses have just been added into the notebook after today -Brouhaha who showed versatility with regards to tactics and got up late on. However, he won with a bit in hand IMO and is clearly in great heart. Kargan also ran a decent race and looked like he would just get up until the 40/1 ran ridden by Hanagan stuck his neck out. He is unexposed and seems to be improving with every race.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

Chijmes is in action tomorrow and will get the race run to suit with Wotashirtful in the line up. However, it is a small field so there is no option for EW insurance so Ive not decided whether to keep faith again. Resplendent Alpha is the other hold up horse that is likely to finish well and could challenge for one of the places.

Problem solved as Chjimes is a NR. One bet for today. Line 1: Flowing Cape 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts @ 5/6, WON, +6.67 pts (_6.67 overall) Line 2: Common Diva 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts @11/4, LOST, -9 (-2.33) Line 3: Blue Charm 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 9 pts @ 6/5, PLACED, +10.8 (+8.47) Line 4: Formidable Guest 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 = 11 pts @ 5/6, PLACED, +9.17 (17.64) Line 5: Carlton Scroop 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 = 13 pts @ 8/11, PLACED, +9.45 (+27.09) Line 6: Antillia 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 = 15 pts @ 1.99 PLACED, +14.11* (+41.2) Line 7: Davids Mark 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 15 = 17 pts @ 1.85, LOST, -17 (+24.2) Line 8: Brouhaha 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 = 16 pts @ 1.5, WON, +7.6* (+31.8) Line 9: True Britannia 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 = 19 pts @ 1.88 Betfair * = 5 % commission deducted 2.00 Lingfield I would back True Britannia to win in a low grade handicap so will certainly back her for a place in a claimer here. Last time out I had written her off as they turned for home before Andrew Elliott switched her out wide and she made a breathtaking move down the outside to claim the win at the post. That made it two CD wins from three starts for this trainer and jockey and I think her 6th inbetween may be explained by an insufficient recovery period as she was turned out three days after her previous win. They are paying three places for the place here and I think she even has strong win claims. She's already beaten Supernoverre and its hard to weigh up whether Bromhead is fairly rated. Even if he is, he's conceding plenty of weight to the Hales runner here. She is open to improvement at three and the only possible rival for the win IMO is Kiyari, from the Botti yard, who is lightly raced, picked up a claimer last time out and is likely to be suited by the step up in trip. I actually think True Britannia has the beating of that horse on a formline through Precocious Air, but either way, I still fancy True Britannia to finish in the first three home at worst, and had 1.88 matched for the place on Betfair last night.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Line 1: Flowing Cape 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts @ 5/6, WON, +6.67 pts (_6.67 overall) Line 2: Common Diva 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts @11/4, LOST, -9 (-2.33) Line 3: Blue Charm 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 9 pts @ 6/5, PLACED, +10.8 (+8.47) Line 4: Formidable Guest 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 = 11 pts @ 5/6, PLACED, +9.17 (17.64) Line 5: Carlton Scroop 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 = 13 pts @ 8/11, PLACED, +9.45 (+27.09) Line 6: Antillia 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 = 15 pts @ 1.99 PLACED, +14.11* (+41.2) Line 7: Davids Mark 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 15 = 17 pts @ 1.85, LOST, -17 (+24.2) Line 8: Brouhaha 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 = 16 pts @ 1.5, WON, +7.6* (+31.8) Line 9: True Britannia 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 = 19 pts @ 1.88, PLACED +15.88* (47.68) Line 10: Yungaburra 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 19 = 22 pts @ 8/15 insurebet Bet 365 (stake back if finishes second). 3.00 Wolv If Yungaburra runs to anything like his best, the rest of these may as well not bother turning up. Woodcote won a weak seller at Lingfield and disappointed in a claimer when last seen, and Desperate Dan, who goes in at this level from time to time, hasn't been firing on all cylinders following a little break. Yungaburra has a liking for Wolverhampton that dates back to his time with Tim Pitt and has done all of his winning here. He's bidding for a double-hat-trick of course and distance wins and was an eyecatching winner in November when, despite not getting the clearest of runs, picked up a class 4 handicap with some authority. He has failed to follow up since after the handicapper raised him 7 lbs for that win, but he has continued to run with credit in handicaps, finishing close up to Dvinsky and Sir Nod on his last two starts. He was once a handicap winner off 85, and whilst I don't think he is able to repeat that performance now, or run to his official mark of 84, I think he is still able to repeat his November exploits (winner off 77), and that would be enough to pick up a morale boosting win in this claimer where he has been entered on an attractive weight. He is 10/11 to win, but I'm taking the insurebet today just for insurance.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Line 1: Flowing Cape 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts @ 5/6, WON, +6.67 pts (_6.67 overall) Line 2: Common Diva 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts @11/4, LOST, -9 (-2.33) Line 3: Blue Charm 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 9 pts @ 6/5, PLACED, +10.8 (+8.47) Line 4: Formidable Guest 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 = 11 pts @ 5/6, PLACED, +9.17 (17.64) Line 5: Carlton Scroop 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 = 13 pts @ 8/11, PLACED, +9.45 (+27.09) Line 6: Antillia 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 = 15 pts @ 1.99 PLACED, +14.11* (+41.2) Line 7: Davids Mark 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 15 = 17 pts @ 1.85, LOST, -17 (+24.2) Line 8: Brouhaha 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 = 16 pts @ 1.5, WON, +7.6* (+31.8) Line 9: True Britannia 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 = 19 pts @ 1.88, PLACED +15.88* (47.68) Line 10: Yungaburra 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 19 = 22 pts insurebet @ 8/15, LOST -22 (+25.68) Line 11: Cornus 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 = 20 pts TBP @ 2.96 Betfair I'm having another bet today. I feel a bit cheated with the way Yungaburra ran earlier. Perhaps he wasn't such a good thing as I thought, but no way on hell does a horse 10 lb well in at the weights all around finish seven lengths out of the places if he's given a proper ride. I would like to see the official explanation for his performance as he drifted from 4/6 to practically 6/4 just before the off. 5.00 Wolverhampton Catalan Bay ran with promise when behind Ravi River on his UK debut and having ran in some group races in Australia is understandably the favourite here. I think he can go well, as can Caprio, who came out on top in a two horse race at Kempton last time out. However, both of those are too short for me, and beyond those, the remainder of the field are priced much larger. Cornus is trading at 15/1 on the exchanges and I think that is a massive price for a horse that has won two of his last three races, including one over CD. He ran under a penalty last time out and also turned wide approaching home, which will have not helped his chances, and now he runs off a proper rating, only 1 lb higher than his last win, I think he has every chance of making the frame at the expense of Guildentern, who would have made more appeal if he was running from within the handicap proper. 2.96 taken for the place.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Cornus scraped his way into the places to finish the day on a more pleasing note. It will take a little longer to reach the check out point of 100 pts now after the Yungaburra loss, but getting there steadily. Line 1: Flowing Cape 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts @ 5/6, WON, +6.67 pts (+6.67 overall) Line 2: Common Diva 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts @11/4, LOST, -9 (-2.33) Line 3: Blue Charm 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 9 pts @ 6/5, PLACED, +10.8 (+8.47) Line 4: Formidable Guest 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 = 11 pts @ 5/6, PLACED, +9.17 (17.64) Line 5: Carlton Scroop 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 = 13 pts @ 8/11, PLACED, +9.45 (+27.09) Line 6: Antillia 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 = 15 pts @ 1.99 PLACED, +14.11* (+41.2) Line 7: Davids Mark 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 15 = 17 pts @ 1.85, LOST, -17 (+24.2) Line 8: Brouhaha 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 = 16 pts @ 1.5, WON, +7.6* (+31.8) Line 9: True Britannia 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 = 19 pts @ 1.88, PLACED +15.88* (47.68) Line 10: Yungaburra 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 19 = 22 pts insurebet @ 8/15, LOST -22 (+25.68) Line 11: Cornus 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 = 20 pts TBP @ 2.96, PLACED, +37.24* (+62.92) Line 12: Wine 'n Dine 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 20 = 24 pts TBP @ 1.47 Betfair 8.20 Wolv Wine 'n Dine - this isn't a very imaginative pick but is one i've been following throughout his handicap career. He picked up a couple of class 4 handicaps around the turn of the year and although 3rd off this mark last time out at Lingfield, I don't think you can totally write him off because he didn't get the race run to suit and wasn't beaten far regardless. He has been very progressive this season and I don't think you can write him off yet, even though he is yet to win in the grade. He looks open to much more improvement than some of those in opposition, who have been running in sellers and claimers (Blacktoft, Wind Flow and United Nations) or haven't won in an age (Boo). Spirit of Adjisa is the only potential danger in my opinion but he hasn't acheived as much as Wine 'n Dine to date and must prove this leap in class is warranted. I'll take the Gary Moore horse to bounce back. 1.47 taken for the place (2 places).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Several runners from the notebook are in action today.

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Bridgewater Boys 3/11/08 - plater that goes well over middle distances at any AW course. Brouhaha 27/2/09 - versatile tactics wise, can win from front or tracking leaders, won apprentices race more comfortably than winning margin suggested and could win again nto.

Dvinsky – 30/12/08 – likes to make all, dangerous if allowed soft lead.

Stand Guard - 24/1/09 –consistent horse just needs to drop a couple of pounds maybe.

Teasing 11/12/08 – coped well with step up in trip last time and well handicapped on pick of old form

Bridgewater Boys runs in the 7.20 at Wolv. He won over CD back in Dec when with Gary Moore and notched up his first win for the David Evans yard last time out in a seller. He looks the one to beat here and should go well with Quince perhaps the danger. Quince has been running consistently but often finds one or two too good. 7/4 and I'm backing. Brouahaha runs up against Teasing and Stand Guard and in 7.50 at Wolv so it presents a bit of a dilemma. The handicapper refuses to drop Stand Gaurd's mark so for now I'll pass over. I think this race is tougher than the apprentices race Brouhaha won so am leaving that one for today. I think he will go well from a very good draw and if he wins then fair do's, but with Teasing priced much bigger my choice was influenced by the market. She deserves another chance, is best over this CD, and gets on well with Havlin. The visor is on again which helps, the slight worry is the field size, but Brouaha could set this up nicely for here and she's worth a punt at the price (14/1). Dvinsky runs in the 8.20 and I think there is chance he could get his own way upfront. There is the possibility Xpres Maite could press him, but with 12/1 on offer it is a chance I am willing to take as he has been given some impossible tasks of late, this looks more winnable. None of the above are included in P/L calcs though, they are seperate stand alone bets indepedent of my reverse labouchere selections.

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Line 1: Flowing Cape 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts @ 5/6, WON, +6.67 pts (+6.67 overall) Line 2: Common Diva 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts @11/4, LOST, -9 (-2.33) Line 3: Blue Charm 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 9 pts @ 6/5, PLACED, +10.8 (+8.47) Line 4: Formidable Guest 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 = 11 pts @ 5/6, PLACED, +9.17 (17.64) Line 5: Carlton Scroop 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 = 13 pts @ 8/11, PLACED, +9.45 (+27.09) Line 6: Antillia 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 = 15 pts @ 1.99 PLACED, +14.11* (+41.2) Line 7: Davids Mark 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 15 = 17 pts @ 1.85, LOST, -17 (+24.2) Line 8: Brouhaha 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 = 16 pts @ 1.5, WON, +7.6* (+31.8) Line 9: True Britannia 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 = 19 pts @ 1.88, PLACED +15.88* (47.68) Line 10: Yungaburra 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 19 = 22 pts insurebet @ 8/15, LOST -22 (+25.68) Line 11: Cornus 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 = 20 pts TBP @ 2.96, PLACED, +37.24* (+62.92) Line 12: Wine 'n Dine 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 20 = 24 pts TBP @ 1.47, PLACED, + 10.72* (+73.64) Line 13: Marmooq 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 20 24 = 28 pts TBP @ 11/10 Paddypower 3.55 Lingfield 11 runners now line up for this 0-70 class 5 handicap over 7 furlongs but I am hoping it may not be as competitive as the numbers suggest. Singleb is a clear danger but a penalty means he may be slightly vulnerable in this handicap and although he has a plethora of winning form to his name, much of it is at plating level. Tuxedo is another from near the head of the handicap that should go well, but he is 6 lbs worse off with Marmooq for a 2.5 length beating at Kempton earlier in the month and I think it is the Michael Attwater runner that is worth a bet here. Marmooq is very consistent over 7f, recording form figures of 115143 over this trip since returning from a break after the summer. He won over course and distance in November and although 10 lb higher now (65), he has won inbetween off 59. Given the close proximity of his finishes in recent starts I don't think he is handicapped out of things off a mark 6 lbs higher than his last win as he is usually there of thereabouts. With Ian Mongan up I think he should go well and could land one of three places up for grabs with plenty of these being beaten by longer distance on recent starts.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Line 1: Flowing Cape 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts @ 5/6, WON, +6.67 pts (+6.67 overall) Line 2: Common Diva 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts @11/4, LOST, -9 (-2.33) Line 3: Blue Charm 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 9 pts @ 6/5, PLACED, +10.8 (+8.47) Line 4: Formidable Guest 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 = 11 pts @ 5/6, PLACED, +9.17 (17.64) Line 5: Carlton Scroop 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 = 13 pts @ 8/11, PLACED, +9.45 (+27.09) Line 6: Antillia 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 = 15 pts @ 1.99 PLACED, +14.11* (+41.2) Line 7: Davids Mark 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 15 = 17 pts @ 1.85, LOST, -17 (+24.2) Line 8: Brouhaha 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 = 16 pts @ 1.5, WON, +7.6* (+31.8) Line 9: True Britannia 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 = 19 pts @ 1.88, PLACED +15.88* (47.68) Line 10: Yungaburra 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 19 = 22 pts insurebet @ 8/15, LOST -22 (+25.68) Line 11: Cornus 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 = 20 pts TBP @ 2.96, PLACED, +37.24* (+62.92) Line 12: Wine 'n Dine 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 20 = 24 pts TBP @ 1.47, PLACED, + 10.72* (+73.64) Line 13: Marmooq 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 20 24 = 28 pts TBP @ 11/10, PLACED, +30.8 (104.44). Checkout point reached :nana, phew. I must admit I nearly messed my undercrackers the other day when I read the Cornus race on the RP text commentary and they declared Catalan Bay as third. Only a few hours later I found out Cornus had scraped his way into third and the RP had got it wrong! The 100-pt checkout point was reached in 11 days, having staked 211 points, with a ROI of 49.5 % which I am delighted with. Those 104.44 points are now banked and I will start a new 1-7 line to avoid wiping out those profits accrued to date. I've learned a few pointers in this first 'set' and will stick to races where 3 places are paid, preferably handicaps, and may increase the check out point for the next set, I haven't decided yet. I think place betting is the bet for me at the minute as not enough win to justify on the nose betting, especially with this staking plan which is suited to sequences of short priced winner. I will work out the difference in P/L between reverse labouchere and level stakes staking when I get chance.

[Trotter]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Well done fin !.............:ok Not that I understand all those lines of numbers..........:tongue2:unsure:D

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Cheers. It probably looks like a load of gobbledegook, i'll try explain. Basically, the 'reverse labouchere' staking plan (also goes by several other names one of which is the monte carlo plan I think) was a staking plan thought up by some guy in a casino for playing roulette. Apparently he used it on red or black, betting at evens and was banned from several casinos after wiping them out. it is a staking plan I read about in David Duncans book and is best used on short priced selections that will yield long winning runs. Basically all you do is decide on a sequence of numbers (I picked 1 - 7 as that is what is listed in Duncan's book) and then write them out. The stake for the first bet is the sum of the numbers on each end of the row. If the bet wins then you add the stake to the right of the line. If the bet loses you knock the two numbers off the end of each line. This has the effect of increasing the stake when you hit a patch of winners and lets you cash in on a winning run. a working example. Line 1: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 - the stake for this bet is the sum of the end numbers on each row = 8 pts. We then have two scenarios: 1) the bet wins 2) the bet loses. if scenario 1) is true simply add '8' to the end of the line... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8, so for the next bet the stake would be 1+8 = 9 pts. If scenario 2) is true you knock off 1 and 7 off the row and take the next two numbers in as the stake. i.e. 2 3 4 5 6.... 2 + 6 = 8 points. If you knock all the numbers off a row simply start a new row. because this staking plan has the potential to really snowball winnings, stakes can get quite hefty, and a series of losers could potentially wipe out the bank, so 'check out' points are advised where you 'bank' the winnings and start a fresh 1-7 row. hope this explains things a bit clearer?

[Trotter]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Thanks for the explanation !

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread I've banked the winnings from the last set and started a fresh line and going again with a second set of selections now. Staking rules: add the two numbers at each end of the row to determine the next stake. After a winner, add the winning stake to the right end of the line. After a loser, cross off the two numbers at the end of the row. Line 1: Bold Adventure 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts TBP @ 2.1 betfair 4.40 Lingfield Staying is the name of the game here and eight runners face the starter for this two mile handicap. The one that caught my eye last time out was Bold Adventure, who landed a gamble when coming home strongly to pick up Born West and Carlton Scroop to score by one and a half lengths at Wolverhampton ten days ago. Willie Musson's charge had shown little on previous starts over the jumps, but the return to the all-weather did him the world of good and he looked in good heart. He looks to have a big chance here even after a 6 lb rise, as he stamped his authority over Born West (who reopposes here) that day and in finishing ahead of Carlton Scroop he has beaten a relialbe yardstick for the grade. He notched up a hat-trick in 2007 so could be the type to follow up and he is only 2 lbs higher than his highest ever winning mark. He makes his Lingfield debut but there is every reason to believe the course will suit if he is ridden in the same manner as last time. 11/10 taken for the place.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Bold Adventure was a drifter yesterday but comfortably stayed on for second to kick things off. By the way, I worked out how much I would have made staking 8 pt level stakes on the first set of selections - and am at least (no commission deductions were added in) 37.64 pts better off for staking with the reverse labouchere plan.

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Staking rules: add the two numbers at each end of the row to determine the next stake. After a winner, add the winning stake to the right end of the line. After a loser, cross off the two numbers at the end of the row. Line 1: Bold Adventure 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts TBP @ 2.1 = +8.36* (+8.36 overall) Line 2: Garlogs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts TBP @ 3.05 Betfair * = 5 % commission deducted 2.10 Southwell At 2/1, Garlogs approaches the upper price limit for a selection but I think he is worth a go here as the handicapper has cut him some slack and dropped his rating 4 lbs. He has been hard to catch right in recent months but there is no denying he has been running in better races than this and he was looking exposed off a rating off 75-76. His 4th to Turn on the Style and Matsunosuke reads as a decent piece of form as both of those rivals are now rated in the 100's. His subsequent run at Wolverhampton at the end of January leaves a bit to be desired but his effort last time out may have been explained by a combination of a harsh mark and a poor draw. It is preferable to be drawn down the middle at the Newark track and whereas he started from stall 12 that day, today he comes from stall 6 - bang down the middle. The hapless Robert Winston has been replaced by Russell Kennemore, who gets on well with this horse and claims 3 vital pounds, and I think he has found his level again now. Racing off a mark only 1 lb higher than his last winning mark I hope his revised rating and a little break (most of his wins have come returning from an absence of around a month) can make all the difference. 3.05 taken for the place.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Garlogs was unplaced yesterday. I knew he would get a decent lead from stall 6 and planned to trade out the full stake of the bet at half of the odds in running, but I didn't have time to follow the race, and had to leave an unmatched bet on the exchange. He traded as low as 2.2 for the place, but that wasn't enough to be matched- arghh! That loser knocks things back to square one for the current set of selections, but I am confident about my pick for today, a horse I have been following and who is in my notebook....

Zalkani – 14/2/09 – hit a wall of runners last time, hope for a better run over 13f next time.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Staking rules: add the two numbers at each end of the row to determine the next stake. After a winner, add the winning stake to the right end of the line. After a loser, cross off the two numbers at the end of the row. Results Line 1: Bold Adventure 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 8 pts TBP @ 2.1, PLACED = +8.36* (+8.36 overall) Line 2: Garlogs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 = 9 pts TBP @ 3.05, LOST = -9 (-0.64) Line 3: Zalkani 2 3 4 5 6 7 = 9 pts TBP @ 2.1 Betfair 3.10 Lingfield £2,900 is up for grabs for the winner of the Bet Cheltenham Festival - Betdaq Handicap and I think it will be the owners of Zalkani that will be leaving Lingfield Park with their pockets swollen this afternoon. Jeff Pearce's gelding was a course and distance winner in December when producing a late burst of speed to wear down the tiring Colonel Sherman and take the race inside the final 50 yards. The second franked the form with a next time out win and has been holding his form well and the form was further boosted earlier this week when the consistent stayer Irish Ballad also picked up a handicap at the course. Zalkani's next two races came over 10-12f trips, distances that are probably on the sharp side for him now, but nevertheless, he stayed on during both runs to claim 4th and 5th placed finishes, with the margin of defeat respectable on both occasions. I backed him on the 13th February over CD and although the form book will forever mark him down as finishing 5th of 9 that day, he travelled supremely well and was all over the leading pack until meeting with severe interference inside the final furlong, finding himself short of room twice, but even then, still losing the race by only 0.69 lengths. The gelding carried my money again for his last run, as he tackled this CD once more and he finished a respectable 4th of 14 in the field that contained the superbly handicapped Antillia (3rd) and two other unexposed horses in 1st and 2nd, and he lost nothing in defeat that day in my opinion in what looked a competitive race. Jerry O'Dwyer returns to the saddle this afternoon and knows how to hit the right notes with him (won two races together last September) and following a 1 lb drop in his rating, which puts him only 3 lbs higher than his last win, I make this the bet of the card. I fancy him to win, but have only backed to place, having 9 pts matched at 2.1 this morning.