Fintron's AW Thread

[RussP]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Well done Fin, great results tonight:ok I want to catch up with you soon to chat about your selection policy, maybe over a few beers in Edinburgh or I might post something in here if I get time:ok

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

Well done Fin, great results tonight:ok I want to catch up with you soon to chat about your selection policy, maybe over a few beers in Edinburgh or I might post something in here if I get time:ok

Sure, either way, can't wait for the Edinburgh meet up :tongue2 Thanks for the comments too Nick.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 12.30 Lingfield 11 are declared for this class 6 seller over a mile and half and one of my favourite AW animals, Nawamees, is amonst the ranks. This horse was a prolific plater when with Gary Moore but was recently claimed out of his yard and moved on to David Evans. Evans almost did his usual trick and got a FTO win for him, but he was beaten by just 0.19 lengths in an apprentices handicap. Since then he's ran in a lady's race, so form of that probably best ignored, and in three claimers. Finished 3rd to Sabre Light and Zero Cool over shorter, but no shame in that as Sabre Light has been in great form at this level this winter. Ran poorly here on next run though and weakened again last time out at Wolv. However, on those recent runs he's been 13/2 ish in the market, to suggest he wan't fancied. Today he's opened at 13/8 with Skybet to suggest he's more fancied today. Wind Flow won a course and distance seller for this jockey recently so warrants respect as second fav. However, if we take the OR's as true reflections of their ability, which I think is fair here, Wind Flow has 5 lbs to find with Nawamees at these weights. Obrigado is the other than deserves a decond look given the trainer-jockey combo, but he was beaten in a claimer here yesterday so its questionable whether he will even take part. He's been running a few races at this level of late and never landed a blow and is another with plenty to find with Nawamees at the weights. 15/8 Paddypower, 10 pts win<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

1.00 Lingfield Captain Walcot runs off a mark of 60 - joint top weight - for this modest nursery and looks to have decent claims in a poor looking affair. Richard Hannon's gelding finished 3rd lto at Kempton, finishing close up to a 62-rated winner, and with Kladester (who won a nursery off 55 going into the race) back in 5th. Together, that probably indicates his rating of 60 is fair here. Captain Walcott was leading on multiple occassions on that run, over a mile, and given he only lost second in the final strides, the drop back in trip here seems appropriate. Was close to <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />HighlandRiver at Kempton on his run before, and that rival won NTO off 62 in a nursery. Again, that winner of that race was rated 60 too, and Capt Walcott was only a length off Roar of Applause that Day, which could add further strength to the argument he is well treated on 60 here. 11/4 Skybet. 3/1 SJ, 10 pts win

1.30 Lingfield Another nursery here and at least we have a bit of winning form to analyse. The beating Son of Praise gave to Cool Art last time out reads as a decent bit of form in the context of this race as the Callaghan rival was a nursery winner off 74 in September and came into the race off the back of a win in a claimer. Cool Art was rated 75 for that run, so Son of Praise did well to score rated 57, and he's only been put up 3 lbs for that win here. With CD proven to suit, another big run could be expected and he's backable at the price. Mr Willis didn't get a clear run last time out and but is too short in the betting for me. 5/1 SJ, 5 pts EW (1/5 odds, 3 places). Lingfield 2.00 Hayley rides Mister Thatcher, who is looking for the hat-trick and maybe that can be her 101st winner? Connections turn it out quickly and he's running off 59 here, a 7 lb increase from lto. This Ones for Pat, 4th, boosted the form of his last win by winning next time out, but he hasn't really beaten much of late. Then again, there are no worldbeaters in opposition today. Lord Deevert is interesting at a big price. Jack Dean gave this a quite brilliant ride to score from a wide draw a couple of months ago. He was poorly drawn at Wolverhampton the following run and still managed third, quite respectable for a front runner under the cicrumstances. LTO finished 9th over CD but was checked late on and eased down at the finish. Only 3 lbs above last win but dropping in grade has an obvious chance from a handy position in the stalls. River Kirov is in decent enough form and is only 6 lbs higher than his last win but he's failed to win off his revised mark the last three runs. Continues to run well but I'm not happy to take 2/1 about him drawn in 11. Lord Deevert 12/1 Paddypower, 5 pts EW (1/5 odds, 3 places). 2.30 Lingfield Now You See Me is 6 lbs higher than his last time out success at Southwell, but acts on the polytrack too as two wins at Wolv and a decent second here show. Has won being held up and tracking leaders, so stall 7 not necessairly a hindrance. Lady Bahia was 3 lengths behind lto, and could get a little closer today with Tony Culhane's mount running under a penalty. Has won off higher marks in the past. 9 pts Now You See Me 5/2 Bet 365 1 pt Lady Bahia 9/1 Ppower

3.00 Lingfield Tirskaedophobia is well weighted on the pick of his form but hasn't been taking advantage of his lowly mark and Lithaam, although in form, must prove himself back on a faster surface. As a result, Fastrac Boy, could be the answer here. Returns from a 183-day break but has gone well fresh before and was in good form in the summer on turf on marks only a few lbs lower. He acts on poltrack and has placed behind Wibbadune, Sands Crooner and Toughtsofstardom and Dodaa, which are fair bits of form in the context of this class 6 handicap. Its imperitive he breaks well from the widest draw though, although Jack Dean has shown on Lord Deevert it is possible. 5/1 SJ, 5 pts EW (1/5 odds, 3 places).

3.30 Lingfield I backed Bellomi last time out in a Southwell claimer and despite have plenty in hand on official figures he was tonked into fourth. As a result the handicapper has slashed his rating 8 lbs and he's down to 80 here, which seems a bit more realistic. He won an Ascot handicap off 85 this summer and won a Newmarket claimer in August, so ability is there. However, he hasn't taken to the artificial surfaces to date and may still be best watched for now until he shows more in this sphere. Dudley Docker is only 4 lbs higher than his win here in March which came in this grade. He returns from an absence though and I'm not sure what to make of him. Most times returning from 60+ day breaks he's failed to win, but a run at Haydock last August was an exception. Chancable at the price I suppose. Glenacalvie came close over CD recently but is up a few pounds here and no longer has Tolley Dean's 3 lbs claim. Would have preferred a lower draw too. I put Southandwest up for his last run as he seems well handicapped. Won off 82 at Newcastle in May and had been knocking on the door off marks in the high 70's of late but could have few excuses for latest defeat in a weak race (had Glencalvie behind). So all in all, perhaps I Confess is the most likely winner. He steps up in grade and is 6 lbs higher than his last win, running off bottom weight here, but at least he arrives with recent winning form. His record over CD lately reads 1221 and although he's stepping up from class 5 here, this race doesn't look strong for the grade. He kept on well last time, had Cornus behind, and deserves another chance given his current mood. 9/4 Bet 365, 10 pts win

[peteg40]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Nice write ups as usual Fintron..... GL with those

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Just to bring things up to date to the end of 2008.... 22/12 Fyodor (3rd) -10 22/12 Supercast (3rd) -10 22/12 Asian Power (3rd) +15 pts 22/12 Charming Escot (4th) -10 26/12 Scarab (2nd) -10 26/12 Teasing (5th) -10 27/12 Lyceana (2nd) -10 28/12 Resentful Angel (6th) -10 29/12 Mafeking (4th) -10 30/12 Kingsgate Storm (8th) -10 30/12 Imaginary Diva (1st) +15 30/12 Sands Crooner (7th) -10 30/12 Zuwaar (1st)/Snowberry Hill (6th) +12.5 30/12 Dvinsky (1st)/Silvanus (2nd) +23.75 30/12 Gainshare (10th) -10 31/12 Nawamees (3rd) -10 31/12 Captain Walcot (5th) -10 31/12 Son of Praise (2nd) +1.5 31/12 Lord Deevert (6th) -10 31/12 Now You See Me (3rd)/Lady Bahia (5th) -10 31/12 Fastrac Boy (9th) -10 31/12 I Confess (2nd) -10 Overall results Bets to date: 194 + 22 = 216 Strike rate: (inc EW bets that yield profit): 59/216 (27 %) Total pts staked: 1897 + 220 = 2117 Total pts returned: 2073.98 + 117.75 = 2191.73 Overall profit: + 176.98 -102.25 = +74.73 Yield: +3.53 % Thread Records Biggest priced winner(s): Back in the Red, Sofia's Star 16/1 (17/11/08, 30/11/08) Most backed winner: Back in the Red (16/1 advised into 11/1 SP) Longest winning run: 4 (14/12/08) Longest losing run: 15 (1/12/08 - 6/12/08)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 7.20 Wolverhampton Hold The Bucks looks the bet of the night in this claimer over nine furlongs. Luke Morris' mount looks well treated at the weights and apart from Madison Belle, would be conceding much more to his rivals in a handicap. Even then, he is only 1 lb wrong with the last named, and given that Karl Burke's runner has a little to prove at present after solid beatings in nurseries in her last two you could go as far as saying Madison Belle is a little high in the handicap for now anyway. Hold The Bucks looks to have many things in his favour other than his weight. He gets on well this this jockey, who partnered him to success at the beginning of last month over course and distance in a nursery when he was rated 63. As a consequence I think he is deserving of his 67 rating, especially since he ran credibly off 67 in a Great Leighs nursery last time out. He finished 4th of 10 but had every chance inside the final furlong but found the trip stretched him a little too much. Dropping back down to a distance at which he is proven tonight could prove the catalyst to another success. With this being a claimer, the market will prove informative of his chances as ever, but I think he holds the strongest claims on the form book. 4/6 Bet 365, 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 7.50 Wolverhampton Mister New York - has stamina to prove, has won up to 8f before, previous course winner, 5 lb above last win, which came in this grade, and drops in class from last outing at GL in a competitive race. Hold up horse so draw (8) unlikely to be an issue. Just Bond - goes well around here and has won over both the extended mile and 1m 1f 103 yd so trip shouldn't be an issue. Only 4 lbs higher than last win, which came in this grade at Haydock, but not been capitalising off similar marks on recent runs, including over CD. Has shown little bits of late and likely to go in again at some point, but others more reliable. January - Irish raider that make a worthwhile journey in mid-December when landing a maiden here over CD. Won comfortably that day by 5 lengths from a 69-rated winner, but didn't beat much that day at all. Rated 82 for handicap debut and the 9/4 fav. Fifty Cents - yet to win in three runs since landing Haydock maiden in May last year. Hasn't been disgraced in handicaps off 80-82 and rated 82 here, but may possibly need to drop a couple of pounds to get his head infront. Must prove he acts on this surface and returning from a lengthy absence. Harald Bluetooth - former James Fanshawe inmate that made a winning handicap debut at Newbury off 78 to follow up a win in a Newmarket maiden on his run prior to that. had Godolphin's Meydan City behind at HQ (won a conditions race rated 90 subsequently), but that maiden looked a little bit substandard for the course IMO. Form of his handicap win is okay, had Paraguay, who has won in handicaps off 71, back in second and Mister Hitchens, 4th, went on to land a hat-trick subsequently, with the latest coming off 82. Harald Bluetooth is similarly rated 82 here, but he has a 153-day absence to overcome. Direct Debit - course and distance winner in a claimer in November which followed up a decent effort in a handicap on previous run under todays rider (btn 1 length off 77 in this grade). Only 1 lb higher today, although hardly ripped up any trees when last seen and finishing 6th of 9 over CD and behind Just Bond on first run for new trainer. Wisdom's Kiss - James Bethell's horse was a course and distance winner in May and has showed subsequent improvement to win off 68 here over shorter in a handicap in August. He started from a poor draw two runs ago but almost collared Alexander Hurricane when second here, but from stall 12 again last time out he was always in the rear, and without a clear run, failed to land a blow. Although he is well drawn tonight, he does have a little to prove after that last effort. Xtra Torrential - competed in a couple of listed races several years ago after winning on his debut in a York maiden in 2004. Has never won in handicap company and hasn't had much racing for a horse of his age. Last win came two years ago when won a conditions race rated 90. Proven on the surface and a course and distance winner but seems a little troublesome and maybe best swerved. Randama Bay - Made all to win a Kempton handicap in November but poorly drawn to do so again tonight. 5 lbs higher than that win and up in class now. Last run came in a conditions race and he was always going to be up against it at the weights running against the likes of Banknote, Philario and Orchard Supreme, who are all rated much higher. Run prior to that came in an amateurs handicap here, and didn't see out the trip though, so opposable on the grounds he's yet to stay this far and because of poor draw. Lets Get Cracking - CD winner in a maiden back in October '06 and has been mainly campaigned over jumps since. Recent outings have seen him beaten soundly, including by the promising Punchestowns at Uttoxeter in March. Another with fitness to prove who doesn't looks straightforward as he looks to break his handicap duck off 71 at 50/1. Verdict The grading of the race lured me in to study but it seems poor for a class 4 event where you usually find a few better horses than this. As top-weight, Mister New York warrants respect and although he has to prove he stays this extra furlong, he is probably worth a gamble in a race lacking strength in depth as he made a little bit of headway 1f last time out in a race much more competitive than this. There could be more to come from the favourite but the form of the maiden he won hardly gets the pulse racing and most of the others have multiple questions to answer. 5/1 Blue Sq, 5 pts Ew (1/5 odds on 3 places).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 9.20 Wolverhampton Not a bad little race to close the night and seven line up to face the starter for this 6 furlong sprint. Dvinsky carries top-weight and a penalty after his course and distance win here on Tuesday. He was always going to get the lead, despite a poor draw, last time and the major suprise was that he was allowed to start the race at a massive 6/1 after drifting from 7/2 in the afternoon. He's got to find another 6 lbs of improvement to win here though and IMO he is now exposed. Double Carpet may also take him on for the lead tonight and he's gonna have to come wide from 7 to get a handy early position. Count Ceprano acts over course and distance and won over 7f here in April off 74 in this grade. He has won subsequently off 79 at Goodwood in August and looks to have a chance at the weights rated 78 here. I backed him at 33/1 last time out and he was subjected to massive support that day, going off at 17/2 on his first start for Conor Dore, so it will be interesting to see if the money is down again tonight. He was held up last time but didn't respond when Liam Keniry asked him questions late on though. May want further. Distinctly Game has won a couple of polytrack handicaps over this trip and is 2 lb lower than the last of his wins. He has not won for quite some time now, but he's been running okay of late and has been gradually dropping down the weights. Princess Valerina is only 3 lbs higher than her win at Folkestone in October and she has placed on both of her last two runs over CD. However, the margin of defeat has been of concern given she remains on 72 here. Gainshare did little for her lto form when flopping the other day. Trimlestown won over CD last month off a 6 lb lower mark when had Princes Valerina back in third. Was disappointing lto though. Collingwood makes his UK debut and is another T M Walsh runner coming over from Ireland. Form of lto 4th nothing special as those infront were rated only 68, 65, 64. Runs off 70 here. Double Carpet runs from the bottom of the handicap and bids for the hat-trick after recent wins at GL and over CD lto. Raised 15 lbs from last win and steps up in class, but won very easily last time and Ross Atkinson's 7 lb claim could ensure he remains competitive. In this small field and from a low-ish draw, he could make all again here. Dvinsky is likely to challenge for the lead, but DC has the advantage of a better draw of the pair. Verdict Double Carpet looks the value bet in the race to me at 7's (VC Bet). He's shown a good deal of improvement of late and hacked up when last seen. He is up in class and has been raised in the handicap quite a bit, but many horses with a similar sort of profile start at 2's or 3's in this sort of race and I'm happy to back him at 7/1. Distinctly Game is the main danger IMO now he is dropping down the weights and he is my saver. Late money for Count Ceprano may tempt me into a little play on that although it is still at the back of the mind that he probably wants further. 75 % stake Double Carpet 7's VC bet 25 % stake Disctintly Game 7/2 Bet 365 (bog)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 7.5 pts Double Carpet, 2.5 pts Distrinctly Game.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread double carpet a NR in the last so remaining 7.5 pts of stake on Distinctly Game too at 3/1 Paddypower.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 1.45 Lingfield Premio Loco is a top AW horse for Chris Wall, won a couple of decent handicaps at Kempton and then finished a respectable 6th at Newm when last seen in the Cambridgeshire. Rated 109 here and definately deserves a rating 100+ in this sphere so looks to have plenty in hand on these terms over his opponents. Like many top horses, goes well fresh, so 91 day absence not a worry. 8/13 Bet 365, 10 pts win. 3.25 Lingfield I napped Millville last time out and he obliged at a decent price so I see no reason to desert the Jarvis runner here. Raised 4 lbs for his last win so again carries top-weight, but is used to giving weight all around and carries heavy weights well. Proven in the grade, and won this race last year so CD no problem. Grande Caiman was another I backed recently and he has an amazing record at Lingfield but he's been put up quite a bit for this so I think he'll do well to beat Millville. 6/1 Stan James, 10 pt win

[RussP]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

1.45 Lingfield Premio Loco is a top AW horse for Chris Wall, won a couple of decent handicaps at Kempton and then finished a respectable 6th at Newm when last seen in the Cambridgeshire. Rated 109 here and definately deserves a rating 100+ in this sphere so looks to have plenty in hand on these terms over his opponents. Like many top horses, goes well fresh, so 91 day absence not a worry. 8/13 Bet 365, 10 pts win. 3.25 Lingfield I napped Millville last time out and he obliged at a decent price so I see no reason to desert the Jarvis runner here. Raised 4 lbs for his last win so again carries top-weight, but is used to giving weight all around and carries heavy weights well. Proven in the grade, and won this race last year so CD no problem. Grande Caiman was another I backed recently and he has an amazing record at Lingfield but he's been put up quite a bit for this so I think he'll do well to beat Millville. 6/1 Stan James, 10 pt win

Unlucky today, Fin. A good winner in Premio Loco:ok. Millville ran a great race and was just edged out.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 3.40 Wolverhampton I hope racing goes ahead today simply for this race because I think <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Rebel City has a strong chance in this maiden. I put Dimander up the other day off the back of a decent effort in a Lingfield maiden, the form of which had been recently boosted by the Sky High Kid (6th at Ling) who had won NTO. Well Dimander gave that form a second boost by winning that race and with trip and ground proven to suit RebelCity I think he is the bet of the day. 9/4 Bet 365, 10 pts win. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

3.45 Lingfield Cinematic will benefit from a recent pipeopener over course and distance in which he was well supported returning from a lenghy break but finished behind stablemate RisqueHeights. The Boyle runner is dropped 1 lb in the handicap as a result and is now back down to the same mark as when winning at Wolverhampton 13 months ago, and he shaped with a bit of promise last time out to suggest the ability is still there. As top-weight, he deserves plenty of respect. He has gone well at the track before and trip and ground are no problem. Majehar could prove to be the fly in the ointmnent. Tom Queally's mount won a pair of handicaps at this course last season and although he hasn't won since October '07, he has been knocking on the door in recent months and is now running off his last winning mark. Defeats by just 1.5 and 0.75 lengths in his last two off similar marks suggest his turn isn't far away, and given he is a CD winner, he is another I'm backing. Majehar 5/4 Bet 365, 4 pts win Cinematic 9/2 Bet 365, 6 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Cinematic is now a non-runner, so remaining 6 pts on at 4/5 with Ladbrokes in the 3.54 at Lingfield. 2.10 Wolverhampton Leading Edge tops the weights and stands a good chance of following up her last time out win at Great Leighs off just a 6 lb higher mark under a penalty, with jockey Geran taking off 5 lbs off that. Her third to Milne Bay at Great Leighs on her run prior to that reads as a decent bit of form as the winner was an impressive winner at Wolv NTO and Asian Power, back in 4th, came ever so close to landing a gamble when last seen too. Littledodayno looks another lively contender. She won at Kempton at the end of November and is only 4 lbs higher here. Trainer Wigham is in form after River Kirov's recent victories, and she ran respectably last time out at Kempton when 4th of 12, in a tight finish just behind Asian Power. She had Namu dead heating with her for 4th, that rival boosted the form by winning NTO and reopposes here, but the last named runs under a penalty today so is 6 lbs worse off with Littledodayno. Triple Axel is another interesting one for Jeremey Noseda. She won a Southwell maiden comfortably last time having come over from C O'Brien's yard in Ireland, but the form was let down by the 3rd the other day and a 10 lb hike in the weights looks rather harsh to me for this 2/1 tissue fav, so I'm hedging Littledodayno and Leading Edge. Littledodayno 9/2 Blue Sq, 5 pts win Leading Edge 5/1 Blue Sq, 5 pts win<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

4.10 <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Wolverhampton Milne Bay was unpenalised for a win in an apprentices race at Great Leighs and took full advantage to win impressively at Wolverhampton when last seen. He looks progressive and a 6 lb rise may not be enough to deny David Simcock's horse the hat-trick. The slight concern to me though is the jockey, who I've never heard of, and who hasn't won for ages, if at all. One jockey with a lot less to prove is Amy Baker, who rides Upstairs again here after their win over this trip at Lingfield last time out. He won well by two lengths that day so a 6 lb rise seems fair and Baker is in good form with 4/14 winners in the past fortnight. MilneBay 6/5 SJ, 7 pts win Upstairs 10/3 Blue Sq, 3 pts win

2.45 Lingfield Hellbender looks to have strong claims for this 6 furlong sprint with only five runners declared for this class 5 contest. Richard Kingscote does well around here and his mount was a recent winner at Southwell off a 3 lb lower mark in this grade. Prior to that win he was 2nd to My Best Bet, who reopposes here, but a handy pull in the weights this afternoon means he could reverse placings with the Mick Channon runner, who struggled off her current mark of 70 when last seen. Romantic Queen looked to be a bridesmaid horse after a string of seconds but finally got her head infront in maiden company last time out. This race is tougher as she's switched to handicapping and goes under a 6 lb penalty and I personally wouldn't take a short price about this one as its hard to ascertain whether she is well handicapped given the lack of form boosts from what looks to be modest maiden races. 15/8 SJ, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 2.50 Kempton Mutamared is the tissue fav and ran a very good race to beat Fyodor last time out, even though the latter looked to be best in at the weights. The money was down for Kevin Ryan's charge that day as Fyodor drifted like a barge, and it will be interested to see if Mutamared is well supported again tomorrow. He is certainly running off a good weight, he was a course and distance winner in October and looks to have everything in his favour here so is a confident pick on what looks to be a poor card. 1/3 Bet 365, 10 pts win 4.50 Kempton A dire race to close the card but one of only a few that look to have any sort of chance is Mick Quinn's gelding, Waterloo Dock. He made a pleasing return from a seven week break when third here over 7 furlongs last month, and looks well handicapped on the pick of his form. A year ago he put in two decent efforts at Lingfield over tomorrows trip, a mile, off 56, and he's now rated just 50. Stepping back up in trip tomorrow he could have a chance of taking what looks to be a poor race. 11/2 Bet 365, 10 pts win. 1.10 Southwell Run Free has been in good form of late at this track and looks for the hat-trick here. Noel Wilson's gelding won over 7f here mid-December, and the form of that race was boosted on New Years Day by the third, Mrs Bun, who won NTO. Bettera's Bertie (reopposes here) was back in fourth too. He followed up off 53 when last seen and won by 2 lengths from Kingsmaite, who is a useful yardstick under those conditions for the grade. Louisade, who reopposes here, was further back in the field too. With the surface known to suit that is a massive plus and although he's got an extra furlong to contend with he did place over a mile at Thirsk in the past. Not one to be lumping on at short prices I don't think, but may be worth a little stab as he's racing in the same grade again and a 5 lb rise from his LTO win isn't insurmountable. 11/4 Bet 365, 10 pts win 1.40 Southwell Smalljohn hacked up at <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Wolverhampton when last seen and is consistent at this level. He was only narrowly beaten by Kinigi over course and distance here so I think conditions should be fine. He's been put in on an ideal weight and should take all the beating as he looks to register his third win for Bryan Smart. 4/9 Bet 365, 10 pts win 2.10 Southwell My Friend Fritz relishes racing around here and following a pipeopener last month, got back to winning ways 5 days ago, beating Dart and Victory Quest. He goes under a penalty here, but proven in the grade and over course and distance he ticks many boxes over what looks to be his ideal trip. Benedict Spirit has now won twice at this track, the latest over this sort of trip, and although he didn't beat anything noteworthy last time out he is at least in decent nick and will be backed as my saver. MFF 9/4 Bet 365, 6.25 pts BS 7/4 Bet 365, 3.75 pts 2.40 Southwell La Estrella put to bed any rumours about his well being by routing the field in a claimer here last month to record the hat-trick. Don Cantillon's gelding is a proven course and distance winner and has the strongest form in the race. Others are better weighted, but out of form, so I'm happy to look beyond St Savarin, who is best in on adjusted BHA figures as recent from counts for a lot at this level. 4/5 Bet 365, 10 pts win 3.10 Southwell Many of these continually run up against one another and the one that caught the eye last time was Rebel Duke, who went down by just half a length to hot-in-the-market Pawan here recently. David Barker's horse was headed in the dying stages last time and could gain compensation now stepping down in grade against lesser opposition and running from within the handicap proper. 9/4 Bet 365, 10 pts win 3.40 Southwell The fact Came Back only narrowly held off 59-rated Hamaasy last time out in a claimer suggests this former Kevin Ryan sprinter isn't quite as good as his 85-rating suggests. CD suit, but his recent wins have come in claimers, so this demands more. Charles Parnell goes ever so well over CD and has been a model of consistency with form figures of 211 lately. He's only 4 lbs higher than his LTO win, which came in this grade, so he looks to have a big shout. Don Pele gave the form of his last win a slight boost by winning a claimer here at the weekend. Jack Rackam was a decent little sprinter at 3 for Bryan Smart and although he never really make much of an impact last season or during the flat season just gone, his mark has been dwindling and he was a neck second to Realt Na Mara recently off a mark 8 lb lower than his last win (May '07). He is my saver. CP 5/2 Ppower, 6 pts win JR 13/8 Ppower, 4 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread It was a mixed bag of results yesterday. The most impressive winner was La Estrella who hacked up in the Southwell claimer and was eased down at the 1f pole after wrapping up the victory some way out, although Smalljohn was a flop at 1/3 earlier in the card and to my surprise, lost. Looking over the race I thought he may be happier back on polytrack next time out. Rebel Duke was always holding the Ann Stokell challenger to land the sprint handicap at Southwell, although Runn Free and Waterloo Dock were both unplaced. Benedict Spirit won well to save in the 2.10 and Charles Parnell ran a solid race in the last at Southwell but was surprisingly beaten by Xpress Maite, a big market mover, who ran poorly here the other day at a big price but was well backed all day yesterday from 12's into about 5/1. Mutamared made hard work of the Kempton claimer but got the job done in the end. 3.55 Kempton Aeroplane won more comfortably than the winning margin suggested last time and is of obvious interest running under a penalty here. This son of Danehill Dancer must be highly thought of by connections as he’s ran in several listed races and even a Group 1 over the summer. He switched to the all-weather in November when third to Resplendent Nova and showed progression to finish second to Councellor next time out when going down by only half a length. He competed in a class 2 handicap at Lingfield when last seen and won well off a mark off 92 (has Nezami back in second) and although the likes of Bonus and My Gacho should provide more of a test today, I think he could be the one they have to beat on a surface and over a trip at which he’s proven. 6/4 Bet 365, 10 pts win <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

3.25 Kempton Wine 'n Dine -This is a horse I have been keeping tabs on over the past couple of months. He first caught my eye at the start of December as one that was well handicapped. Let in off on a mark of 72 for his handicap debut he had some decent bits of maiden form previously, most notably a hugely promising fourth on his <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Newmarket debut when behind General Elliott. The Paul Cole rival has ran in some decent AW races at listed level and is rated in the 100's after winning a conditions race next time out to boost the form of that maiden. The second, Sortita, has subsequenty won off 86 in handicaps, and Wine 'n Dine was only around 4 lengths behind that day. The 6th, Amanjena, has won off 74 in handicaps and won a classified stakes race at Ascot rated 87 when last seen, so the form overall looked solid. On his handicap debut he was sent off favourite but was narrowly beaten by CapeColony. However, he ran up against that rival again when last seen and with the Richard Hannon horse raised in the handicap to 81, he managed to reverse the form. He stayed on well in the closing stages to lead at the post so I think the step up in trip here could work in his favour. He handles the surface for sure, is a previous course winner, won for Eddie Ahern last time and could still be ahead of the handicapper with a 6 lb increase from his last run.

5/2 Bet 365, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 2.50 Wolverhampton Every winter on the polytrack you get a horse that puts together a long winning sequence - Ninth House and Confidentiality spring to mind as two names from last year. Well this year it is another Michael Wigham (trained Confidentiality last year)horse stealing the limelight and his name is River Kirov. He won at the beginning of November off 51 and has remained competitive ever since. He has now won his last two and as a result runs under a double penalty here. However, he is progressing at the rate of knots and couldn't have more more impressively of late, despite sharp class rises and extra weight on his back each time. Steve Drowne gets a tune out of him and in such good form he's getting my money today despite another 6 lb rise. 8/11 Paddypower, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread A good day for the thread today with River Kirov, Aeroplane and Wine 'n Dine proving ahead of the handicapper for a decent return for the afternoon. Tomorrow I'm keeping faith with Silvanus. 1.55 Great Leighs Silvanus was a horse I put up for his last run when I hedged with Dvinsky at Wolverhampton. Unfortunately, he didn't get the race run at a true pace due to a lack of pacesetters in the line up and Dvinsky, despite starting from a poor draw, was allowed to dictate the tempo and went on to score after leading them along in his own time. Silvanus did ever to well to finish a neck second to the 79-rated winner under the circumstances. Ian Semple's charge is let in off 72 here and in my opinion that makes him well handicapped. He's been running consistently of late and the form of his fourth over course and distance in November has been franked by the second, Doutful Sound (twice so infact, last win off 79) and by the winner, Ivory Silk, who also won next time out off 80. For me, the key factor tomorrow is that he is likely to get the race run to suit (through Godfrey Street) and I think that will bring out the best in this son of Danehill Dancer. Paddypower have early prices up again, 15/8 they are offering here, suggested bet 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 2.25 Great Leighs Initially I wasn't going to play in this race, but King's Head, best in on adjusted BHA figures, has been pulled out, leaving what looks to be a duel between La Estrella and Bridgwater Boys. I can understand why La Estrella is the fav after his awesome recent form, but if he is a 1/3 shot, no way in hell is Bridgwater Boys a 9/2 shot. He's only 3 lbs wrong at the weights, goes well at this level and is capable of springing an upset. Not a banker by any means but I'm more than happy to back him on the offchance of an upset on the basis that I think Bridgey is far too big. 9/2 SJ, 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Two second's yesterday with both horses narrowly beaten. Hopefully Rebel City can go one better today. 1.30 Lingfield The form of Rebel City's maiden over course and distance in December has been boosted a couple of times now and with trip and going proven to suit I think the Callaghan runner should go well here. The first boost for the form came the other week when Sky High Kid (6th) won on his next start, and the form was further boosted by the second, Dimander, who won next time out recently at Lingfield. Rebel City was only a neck back in third that day, so it looks like his turn could come anytime soon. 2/1 Bet 365, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Rebel City was beaten fair and square in second by the well backed Mark Johnston newcomer earlier, but hoping to shake off seconditis by tomorrow. 2.45 Kempton <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

The 5/2 on offer for Zuwaar looks a decent price and the Ian Williams trained gelding bids for the hat-trick here. He was backed off the boards back in November so someone clearly knew he was about to find his feet, and although he flopped that day, he’s won twice since and seems to be progressive. He stayed on well to beat Irish Ballad next time out when stepped up in trip at <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Wolverhampton, and at the same course, also won last time out staying on under strong pressure to beat Squirtle. He gets this trip no problem, acts on the polytrack and having been raised only 3 lbs for his latest win he looks to have a big chance racing in the same grade once again. I see no reason to desert him here. 5/2 Bet 365, 10 pts win

3.20 Lingfield

Sgt Schultze was a shock winner over a mile and a quarter at Great Leighs and he steps back up to his favourite trip of a mile and a half here. He’s up 7 lbs now but goes well at Lingfield and can’t be entirely ruled out. However, the one that appeals at a bigger price is John Terry. Amanda Perrett’s gelding has run into Sgt Schultze many times in the past but has typically been giving weight away. That isn’t the case tomorrow and after beating the Sgt when conceding 2 lbs last February he looks very well treated gaining 4 lbs here. The other piece of interesting form with John Terry is his third to Philatelist, who is top weight here. The latter was conceding 2 lbs to JT that day, but tomorrow that increases to 10 lbs and there is every chance JT can now overturn that form. He has the class to win a race in this grade having won a 0-100 handicap worth £9k to the winner in the past. He also goes well fresh so the fact he returns from a 85 day break does not appear to be a problem. 7/1 Bet 365, 5 pts EW (1/5 odds, 3 places)

3.50 Lingfield

Teasing is at the top of my list of horses to follow next time out. Since her trainer stepped her up in trip she has looked a winner waiting to happen, chasing home the unexposed

Vine Street

and most recently Slip over this trip. Her effort last time out was very impressive as it came in a claimer where she was 5 lb wrong with the winner, so she must be of obvious interest now stepping back into a handicap. She’s now 9 lbs lower than her last win, which came in this grade, so looks very well handicapped. Price to be confirmed in morning.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Teasing: 13/2 Stan James (bog), 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

2/1 Hold The Bucks (1st)+6.67

2/1 Mister New York -10

2/1 Distinctly Game -10

3/1 Premio Loco (1st) +6.15

3/1 Millville (3rd) -10

5/1 Majehar (1st) +9.8

5/1 Hellbender (1st) +27.5

6/1 Mutamared (1st) +3.33

6/1 Waterloo Dock (4th) -10

6/1 Run Free -10

6/1 Smalljohn (3rd) -10

6/1 Benedict Spirit (1st)/My Friend Fritz +0.32

6/1 La Estrella (1st) +8

6/1 Rebel Duke (1st) +22.5

6/1 Charles Parnell (2nd)/Jack Rackham -10

7/1 Aeroplane (1st) +20 (bog)

7/1 Wine 'n Dine (1st) +25

7/1 River Kirov (1st) +7.27

8/1 Silvanus (2nd) -10

8/1 Bridgewater Boys (2nd) -10

9/1 Rebel City (2nd) -10

10/1 Zuwaar (1st) +25

10/1 John Terry (4th) -10

10/1 Teasing (4th) -10

Overall results Bets to date: 216 + 24 = 240 Strike rate: (inc EW bets that yield profit): 71/240 (30 %) Total pts staked: 2117 + 240 = 2357 Total pts returned: 2191.73 + 281.54 = 2473.27 Overall profit: 74.73 + 41.54 = 116.27 Yield: +5 % Thread Records Biggest priced winner(s): Back in the Red, Sofia's Star 16/1 (17/11/08, 30/11/08) Most backed winner: Back in the Red (16/1 advised into 11/1 SP) Longest winning run: 4 (14/12/08) Longest losing run: 15 (1/12/08 - 6/12/08) Zuwaar managed to land the hat-trick yesterday so put the thread in profit for the day. Teasing and John Terry both finished 4th, but neither were disgraced. In fact, I think Jonh Terry ran a cracked in the 3.20 at Lingfield, returning from a break, and remains of obvious interest for his next run now he's got a run under his belt. He was only caught late on.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 2.30 Great Leighs Dvinsky is dangerous when allowed to dominate and with Epic Odyssey now withdrawn and a lack of pace amongst the remaining runners, Paul Howling’s gelding should be able to dicate the tempo here. He won at the end of December when he overcame a poor draw to soon lead, and I think a lack of pace could again be an issue here. Although he is 5 lb higher than his last winning mark, he is at least a proven winner in the grade and his second to Princess Valerina last time out was a decent enough effort under a penalty (had Count Ceprano behind) considering he was taken on for the lead by Distinctly Game. Trainer Howling registered his first winner of 2009 yesterday with Resplendent Nova so is now up and running and Dvinsky was a decent second to 90-rated Matsunosuke on his last start over course and distance to suggest the track isn’t a problem. 3/1 Sporting Bet, 10 pts win<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

4.35 Great Leighs Bavarica - the racing post said in the aftermath of her last victory that given her poor win rate, she is unlikely to be able to follow up in her last win. Well it looks like connections have found an ideal opportunity for her to infact win again, and it says everything about the quality of the opposition in this race when Bavarica has one of the best strike rates in the line up. Nevertheless, you cannot help but be impressed with her recent form - she is an exciting mare to watch making her move from the back late on, and today's jockey timed his run to perfection last time out when he pressed the button at the perfect time and she won with plenty in hand. That win followed up a decent second to Formidable Guest on her previous run. Bavarica is up 4 lbs here but she has won off 4 lb higher in years gone by and in current her current mood, in this company, I think she has every chance of a follow up. 5/2 Bet >365, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Dvinsky had the race run to suit yesterday as hoped and after the field granted him a soft lead they were unable to reel him back in on the stretch. Amazingly, he drifted out to 6/1 ten minutes before the off, a result of all the money coming in for Falconry, who was making his first start for Ed Vaughan and who was backed in from 13/2 to 11/8 favouritism but trailed home a miserable last, which wasn't a great suprise given he had fitness to prove and a poor level of recent form! A quick look on Sporting Life indicates the level of money that was down for him - "£850-£400 £2900-£1500 £1500-£800 £750-£400 £3500-£2000 £875-£500 £825-£600." That money was a blessing in disguise for Dvinsky as the bookies pushed his price out gradually all morning to balance their percentages. Dvinsky was still the only pacemaker in the race, which is why he made so much appeal, so nothing had changed with respect to way the race would be run, and because his price drifted at 11 am it was possible to tell that the market move wasn't because he had been sweating up in the parade ring or looked uneasy going down, so I managed to get a little bit more money on him. Unfortunately, for thread purposes, I advised betting with Sporting Bet, so profit for yesterday was fixed at +20 pt, however, I didn't think Dvinsky would drift at all and in my eyes he should have been a 2/1 to 3/1 shot and I thought, if anything, the price would shorten. Bavarica was disappointing in the last and made her move too late. She finished in the places but was backed on the nose, so that bet yielded a loss. 2.10 Wolverhampton Desert Dreamer - Tom Dascombe's gelding has been in top form of late and after finishing good seconds to Electric Warrior and Mutamared in claimers in December, made a winning start to the New Year when landing a claimer over this trip at Kempton five days ago. That looked a competitive race with Electric Warrior and Sofia's Star in opposition, so I think he ranks as the one to beat here. He has been put in on a decent weight as he's getting several pounds from Silver Wind and would be giving plenty more to Dancing Deano if this were a handicap. The trip is just up his street and the surface suits so he has every chance of going one better than on his last visit here, when beaten by a short head by Teasing in March, to notch up his first course win. 10/11 Bet 365, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Desert Dreamer was disappointing earlier and could only manage third in the claimer. It was a tight finish but the problem for the judge was deciding whether Kabis Amigos, not Desert Dreamer, had dead heated with the winner. 2.40 Great Leighs Milne Bay - I was impressed with this one when I went to Wolverhampton in mid-December and despite drifting and starting at a massive 10/1 he beat River Kirov comfortably. That form has been boosted multiple times by the runner up since, and as he's been raised just 6 lb in the handicap there could be plenty more to come from David Simcock's gelding. He is also unbeaten over course and distance from two previous runs so is clearly the one they have to beat. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

2.00 Southwell I posted Sabancaya in the FTTS thread at 10/1 on her last run a couple of Sundays ago and she was a well backed winner (5/1). Basically, I said she was crying out to be stepped up in trip because she had been staying on over slightly shorter trips but evidently lacked a gear change. She looked to have a chance off 52 that day given a few bits and pieces of form, most notably a 4th placed effort at Windsor when behind a couple of fair sorts. Sabancaya was a facile winner that day, travelling well throughout for Liam Keniry and the jockey was able to ease her down at the finish. Given the manner of that victory she could still be ahead of the handicapper running under a penalty here now she is running over more suitable trips.

I've posted these up early as I've no time to study tomorrow, but will confirm prices in the morning.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Milne Bay Evs Paddypower, 10 pts win Sabancaya 5/2 Betfred, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 2.10 Great Leighs Desert Strike - a course and distance winner two runs ago, he finished 4th in a competitive Lingfield nursery last time out behind Newlyn Art. This trip looks more suitable as he faded out last time, and he's only 4 lbs higher than last win. Form of maiden win over CD working out well with second and third winning since. Jockey seems to do well for this yard on the AW and has been in great form since returning in the new year. 5/6 Bet 365, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Sabancaya flopped over the extra 2f and finished 4th, she didn't look like catching the winner. Jonjo's horses are clearly now ones to note on the AW, as yesterday's winner was hot on the heels of Spectait who landed a race recently. The other two Grl selections were winners. Desert Strike dead heated but would have won outright with a clear run as he had nowhere to run on the rail until late on. Milne Bay made mincemeat of a weak field and looks ahead of the handicapper. 2.10 Lingfield Gone Hunting has been in decent form of late and was pipped for second at the line by Woolston Ferry at Great Leighs three runs ago in a claimer. However, he gained compensation next time out when landing a claimer at the same track and he was probably better value than the winning margin suggested as Jack Dean had to switch him out wide of Fangfoss Girls to angle his run home. He contested a competitive nursery last time out under a penalty over 6f at the track and was closing on the leading pair, without ever looking like beating them at the end. However, today’s race is easier and the form of that race was boosted by the fourth yesterday (Desert Strike won the opener at Great Leighs). On official figures he is 11 lbs better off with Art fund compared to if this were a handicap and although in reality the Gary Moore horse probably has a little less to find, I think Gone Hunting should still prove too strong. His second to Crystal Moments in a Wolverhampton nursery earlier in the year is the stand out bit of form in this race for me and although Art Fund won well last time, that race was only a seller and was the first time he had really impressed, so hopefully Gone Hunting can make his class tell. 9/4 Bet 365, 10 pts win 12.40 Lingfield Rebel City was a tight second behind Pezula Bay over course and distance two runs ago when beaten by 0.38 lengths and the form of that race has been boosted by the second and the sixth who have both won since. He was made favourite when the market opened when running over course and distance five days ago, but ended up drifting, with Mark Johnston’s newcomer St Moritz subjected to immense support and landing the race in some style. However, Simon Callaghan has called on Jamie Spencer for today, which suggests he means business, and providing there isn’t a market move for the Johnston newcomer, Rebel City could finally lose his maiden tag. 5/4 Bet 365, 10 pts win 2.50 Lingfield Black ‘n Brew has a couple of decent bits of form to his name, most notably a 2nd in a Lingfield nursery behing Khor Dubai and a 4th placed effort in Kempton nursery behind Crystal Moments and Missile Dodger, that suggest he could be up to winning off 69. He has been running consistently, without managing to get his head infront, but connections have opted to step him up in trip today and that could prove the key to his first win as he has shaped as though a step up in trip would be required. Supernoverre won a claimer recently but was held off 70 back in a handicap last time, the proximity of Special Bond’s 6th to 55 and 58 rated winners Amazing Blue Sky and True Brittania suggests she could be a little bit lower than her current rating of 65 ideally, and True Brittania herself will have to improve to win here. She is in fair form, but didn’t beat much when landing her last claimer and is 7 lbs higher than her last handicap success. All in all, I think Black 'N Brew is the most likely winner. 13/8 Bet 365, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 8.50 Kempton Balata enjoys racing around here and has won his last two here over shorter. However, he scrambled home last time so a 5 lb rise may find him out. Dinner Date too loves it here and is a CD specialist with an unbeaten record from three runs over the mile. He’s 6 lbs higher than his last win but could have a shout. Others have chances too but the least exposed runner in the field is clearly Fancy Footsteps. Clive Cox’s Noverre filly made her handicap debut at Wolverhampton off 63 last time out, chasing home River Kirov and Milne Bay as the leading trio pulled well clear of the field. She was bang in contention as they turned for home and was closely matched with River Kirov. The runner up recently completed a hat-trick of subsequent wins and Milne Bay hacked up at Great Leighs yesterday and also looks progressive, so Fancy Footsteps appears to have simply ran into two very well handicapped rivals at the time. Bearing in mind the strength of that form (River Rirov's last win came off a double penalty, effectively 74), she must have strong claims from a handy draw off such a low mark. 7/2 Bet 365, 10 pts win