Fintron's AW Thread

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Thanks for your input Russ. I agree with you, Gallantry does seem to prefer 7f, but at the price I am happy to take a hopeful punt. I spent a while going through this race and quite a few seem to have a chance at the weights. Councillor (does anyone know if Billy still has any involvement in this one?) and The Kiddykid have won off stiffer marks in the past and Gallantry, Dichoh, Prince of Thebes and Rambling Light are all 5 lbs or less above their last winning mark so you could make a case for them too. I just thought the form of Gallantry's win looked strong though and he wasn't disgraced last time I thought he was worth a gamble at the price. I think I only just missed the 8's on offer but he has been well backed overnight by the look of it.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

just want to say well done mate....looked all doom and gloom for a while but back in profit now!!! good lad

Cheers Chris, I didn't help myself in the opening months by making a hash of my profit/loss calculations - I forgot to add the stake back on to winning bets - so losses weren't as bad as I originally posted up, but yeah, I was still losing money. Results do seem to have picked up a little of late, probably because I've re-focussed my approach to handicaps and had the confidence to back 7/1 shots on the nose instead of going for the safe route and backing each-way. The yield is poor for the thread, but seen as I've been posting up something like three bets per meeting I just hope to keep above water in terms or profit/loss and not really too bothered about having a high yield. If the bets are self-sustaining then I'll be happy.

[RussP]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Great day so far mate. 2 races, 2 winners at 6/4 and 7/2 (coupled):clap:clap Just Gallantry to come:hope

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

Great day so far mate. 2 races, 2 winners at 6/4 and 7/2 (coupled):clap:clap Just Gallantry to come:hope

Cheers Russ, you were right about Gallantry though :wall. Nevermind, a 40 pts profit for the day keeps things ticking over and well done with your place earlier.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 3.10 Southwell 14 runners have been declared for this 0-75 class 5 handicap. The ones that make some appeal at the weights are Pertemps Network, Sudden Impulse, Me Fein and Houri. Pertemps Network won a hurdle for Mick Easterby in January and made a winning return to the flat with a comfortable win at Newcastle off 56 in April. He ran a solid second behind 66-rated Cotton Eyed Joe next time out off his revised mark of 67, so he cannot be confidently discounted off only 3 lbs higher here. He does, however, have an absence to overcome. Sudden Impulse won over this trip at Musselburgh in August and is only 5 lbs higher here. He could have a chance based solely on his weight, but his previous three efforts here temper enthusiasm; he's been unplaced on each occasion. Houri won off a 2 lb lower mark at Nottingham during the flat season but is another one with something to prove on the artifical surfaces and this may be a race best left to Me Fein. A P Stringer's gelding has looked a complete donkey on recent turf appearances, but looks a different animal on the all-weather with three wins from five starts. Not only has he proven his stamina over this trip with a win at Wolverhampton, he has winning course form having picked up a handicap at a lower level back in March. The handicapper has acknowledged his strength in this sphere and rated him 4 lb higher than when picking up that 0-65 Wolverhampton race, but providing all is well with him he looks a decent bet at the price. 7/1 Betfred, 10 pts win. 3.40 Southwell Hurricane Harriet is best effective over this trip and ran a decent 4th behind Amber Queen at Newmarket last time out. She is quite a few lbs above her last winning mark though and I'm ready to oppose. The ones that make some appeal at the weights are Princess Rose Anne, Charles Parnell, Ingelby Arch, Asian Power, Incomparable, Herbert Cresent and Westwood Princess Rose Anne won in this grade at Lingfield in June off a 1 lb lower mark so must be respected running off 73 here. Ed Vaughan's filly may have valid excuses for two subsequent placings; when 5th on her next run at Lingfield she was tracking the leader but came too wide entering the final bend and ended up 2.38 lengths off Louphole and last time out at Wolverhampton she was dealt a poor draw. They went at a fast pace that day and she was never able to land a blow from the back of the field, but she is drawn in 5 today which should be more of use to her as she made all when scoring at Lingfield before. She must prove she goes in this slower surface though, a comment that also applies to Charles Parnell, who is only 5 lbs higher than when winning at Ayr last September. Ingleby Arch is well weighted on the pick of his form and won off an 11 lb higher mark here earlier in the year. He he's fared badly on his last two runs over CD though and may be best watched. Asian Power has been running solid races of this sort of mark of late and is only 2 lbs higher than when winning at Kempton in February. The handicapper has looked to have his measure of late though and he's unproven on fibresand. Incomparable has been raised only 3 lbs for his win over 5 furlongs here 11 days ago. He is proven over today's trip though, as he won at Doncaster last year in a maiden. Trainer McCabe does well here and applies cheekpieces, which brought about the victory last time out and it would be no surprise to see him go well. Herbert Crescent is only 2 lbs higher than his soft ground win at the Curragh last October, but he's been dropped in the handicap recently and still been well beaten so is easily opposed. Westwood won off a 12 lb higher mark at Haydock last season and even competed in a couple of listed races. He was rated as high as 91 this time last year, and was well and truly in the grips of the handicapper. However, there was a slight hint that he is back down towards a dangerous mark when he crossed over from a wide draw and took third at Wolverhampton. He takes a further drop in class here, but likely many of these, has no previous experience of the surface. 5 pts win Incomparable 8/1 Bet 365 (BOG) 5 pts win Princess Rose Anne 20/1 Bet 365 (BOG)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 1.10 Southwell 10 line up for this 7 furlong claimer and the two to concentrate on at these weights are Smalljohn and Kinigi. Smalljohn goes well at this level although did let backers down last time at Wolverhampton and is not certain to act on this surface. Kinigi is officially rated 15 lbs worse than Smalljohn but is well off at the weights as she is actually 2 lb better off than if this were a handicap, plus she has the added bonus of Andrea Atzeni's 7 lb claim. As a course and distance winner she is proven under these conditions and should be hard to beat. 6/4 Bet 365 (BOG), 10 pts win.

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Very unlucky yesterday mate with gallantry who somehow never came out of the box till it was too late,gl today

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

Very unlucky yesterday mate with gallantry who somehow never came out of the box till it was too late,gl today

Cheers mate. I haven't found time to watch the Gallantry race but Russ is probably right and the trip probably wouldn't have been ideal anyway. Oh well. Kinigi has got today day off the a good start but I'd swap it for a winning nap!

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Just the one bet for tonight.... 8.50 Wolverhampton The most valuable race on the card and 11 runners are declared for this 5 furlong sprint. Dazzling Bay arrives here in good shape having won at Kempton last time out. He shoulders a 6 lb penalty here as a consequence but racing in the same grade he could go well given that he is proven on polytrack. He ran a decent second at the course before too, but that run came over 6f, and the majority of his wins have come beyond the minimum trip and it may be worth opposing him here. He's a Humbug is 2 lbs lower than when winning at Beverley in July but has since been claimed out of Kevin Ryan's yard by J O'Reilly. He ran well enough over 7f last time at Southwell and will appreciate this drop back in trip, but others appeal more. Yungaburra once won a handicap off 85 but lost his form for a while before a recent win off 72 recaptured his confidence. However, he may prefer 6 furlongs over todays trip and he has still received no respite from the handicapper even though he's winless in his last six. Garlogs won over course and distance in January and has reigstered a hat-trick of wins at Southwell since. He is only 2 lbs higher than his latest winning mark, but has an absence to overcome. Russian Symphony has won off a 9 lb higher mark on turf previously and does has winning course form. He's dropped 2 lbs from his last run and has ran a couple of decent races at Kempton and Great Leighs over this trip to suggest he could be dangerous running off 71. Drifting Gold has won off a 2 lb higher mark here in July but has a little to prove returning from a break after a series of disappointing efforts when last seen. Cheshire Rose is only 3 lb higher than her last winning mark but that win came at a lower level and there are doubts as to whether she is suited to this surface. Choisette is a course and distance winner and won at Beverley in July off a 1 lb lower mark. Her subsequent efforts on turf have been poor though, and this race represents a step up in class. The Tatling won four Group races in his heydey and showed he still retains some ability with a win at Brighton in October off a 4 lb lower mark. Although this veteran has never run on the all-weather before, his profile suggests a fast surface should suit. He's running at class 4 level again and there is every chance he could be adding the £650k prize money he has amassed in his career to date. A draw in stall 7 will not inconvenience this hold-up performer. 10/1 Paddypower (BOG), 10 pts win.

[bescotboy]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Hi, Only recently came across your thread, just a quick line to show appreciation for the time and effort you put in. As a novice gambler myself, I enjoy reading your remarks and seeing how you draw your conclusions. Thanks and good luck. BB

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

Hi' date=' Only recently came across your thread, just a quick line to show appreciation for the time and effort you put in. As a novice gambler myself, I enjoy reading your remarks and seeing how you draw your conclusions. Thanks and good luck. BB[/quote'] Thanks Bescot Boy. I'm still a novice myself really, well at least compared to some of the experienced heads on here. The way I try and pick the winner of handicaps is first to list every runner in the race and then list their current official BHA rating. I then list the highest ever winning mark they have won off and their last winning mark (only taking into consideration runs in handicap races), to try get a feel for whether the horse is an up and coming progressive type or a verteran type that has won before, been in the grips of the handicapper, but is falling back towards its past winning mark. I think if you can draw up such a table you can get a feel for which are the main runners for the race. For example, for the 8.50 tonight at Wolverhampton my table is: The Tatling (80) - Highest: 95 (-15), Latest: 76 (+4) Even Bolder (80) - Highest: 73 (+7), Latest: 73 (+7) Not My Choice (80) - Highest: 77 (+3), Latest: 77 (+3) Dazzling Bay (80) - Highest: 92 (-12), Latest: 77 (+6) He's A Humbug (78) - Highest: 80 (-2), Latest 80 (-2) Yungaburra (77) - Highest 85 (-8), Latest 72 (+5) Garlogs (76) - Highest 74 (+2), Latest 74 (+2) Russian Symphony (71) - Highest: 80 (-9), Latest: 80:(-9) Drifting Gold (70) - Highest: 72 (-2), Latest: 72 (-2) Cheshire Rose (67) - Highest: 64 (+3), Latest: 64 (+3) Choisette (66) - Highest: 65 (+1), Latest: 65 (+1) For example, The Tatling is top weight running off a mark of 80, but is running off a mark today 15 lbs lower than his highest ever winning mark. That win did come a while ago, however, and his latest winning mark was 76. However, given that his last win came in a class 4 race and tonight he runs in a class 4 race, in theory, he only has to find 4 lbs of improvement to be in with a shout of winning. As his last win came quite recently, it is not as if he has been a complete donkey in recent years and earned his last win 5 or 6 years ago before he lost his ability. My personal opinion is to ignore horses that are over 6 lbs above their highest ever winning or latest winning mark. I think if they have more improvement to find then they may struggle. In this race tonight Even Bolder is the fancied favourite, but he's 7 lbs higher than his last winning mark and even though running in the same grade I'm quite happy to oppose him with one that doesn't have to find as much improvement. In one of his books David Duncan suggests that every time a horse steps up in grade it must find 7 lbs of improvement to win. I don't agree with that to the exact figure but it is true that a horse stepping up say from 0-65 to 0-80 company must improve to win as it is racing against better rated rivals. Duncan say's that if a horse won his last race (class 5) off 70, then if he is running off 75 in a class 4 race next time out he will need to improve 11 lbs (6 lbs for the increase in grade + 5 lbs increase in its actual rating) to win. Conversely, if a horse has previously won a class 4 race off 75 and runs off 81 in, say, a class 5 race next time out, it wouldn't have to find any improvement to win, as the drop in class compensates for the increase in his official rating. The latter scenario is unlikely to happen much though because if a horses rating goes up it is probably rated too high to enter races of the class below. I think that it is a useful idea to bear in mind because when looking at a horses highest or lowest winning marks it is important to see at what level they notched up that win. Many horses can only perform to a certain level. They win races for fun at say class 5 and 6 level but the minute they are entered in a class 4 event they are easily found out. They have a ceiling of ability. The other things to consider when betting in handicaps are the price of the horse and its position in the weights. David Duncan illustrates these points ever so well in his book with regard to flat racing, and when I looked into the same thing in all-weather handicaps I found the same patterns are true - horses at the top of the weights do better than those from the bottom, even though, in theory, in a handicap all horses are weighted to have an equal chance of success. I think I include the stats somewhere at the start of this thread, but something like 1 in 5 AW handicaps are won by top weight, which is pretty impressive really considering the SP's you can get for top-weights. Many people have the misconception that if a horse is carrying more weight than its rivals than it is at a disadvantage, which is poppycock. The reason a horse carries more weight than others is because it is a better animal, as reflected in its rating. As for price, it doesn't pay to back short price favourites in handicaps. In races like maidens and claimers, favourites, or at least horses around the head of the market, are the ones to focus on, but in handicaps it is best to oppose short priced favourites. I think in my stats at the start of this thread I concluded that I was best focussing on horses priced between 9/4 and 8/1 or something. The problem with backing 6/4 and 2/1 shots is that you need to maintain a good strike rate to stay in profit. If you are backing 2/1 shots every day you really need to be hitting one in every three to keep afloat, and this is hard, especially as favourites fare worse in handicaps than other types of race. In contrast, if you are backing 7/1 shots, you only need 1 win from every 8 bets to stay ahead of the bookmaker, and you also get the added satisfaction that accompanies finding a big winner. It's ever so frustrating watching 2/1 shots get beaten, but if a 7/1 gets beat, you are less suprised as you took a punt at a decent enough price, you dust yourself down, and you go another day. Anyway, hope some of this help?

[bescotboy]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Great stuff, I'll digest this over a coffee in the morning, bit late tonight!! Thanks again. BB

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 7.20 Great Leighs Puy D’Arnac won in this grade at Ayr last time and is only 4 lbs higher here. However, most of his wins have come on ground softer than good, and he may be best watched on his polytrack debut. Apache Fort’s last two wins have come in claimers but he ran well enough off a 2 lb lower mark in a handicap at Kempton last time out and he looks to have a chance with the blinkers (worn for last two wins) still on. Quince won off 77 on the all-weather two years ago but then waited almost two years before winning again, at Leicester in a class 5 handicap off 75 in June. He was closely matched with Birkside, a genuine 80’s performer, in a claimer at <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />York in July, and put in a decent effort at Kempton in September when three quarters of a length behind Armure. That rival boosted the form by winning off 85 next time out and the third, Royal Amnesty has also won since so the form of that race looks solid. He was running in class 3 company at Newmarket and trailed home last when last seen, but this race is easier than that 0-95 contest and he could be in with a shout running off 82. 10/1 Bet 365 (BOG), 10 pts win 7.50 Great Leighs 8 runners have been declared for this class 4 handicap over 6 furlongs. Four of the runners bring winning form to the table from last time out, so it looks quite an interesting little race at the Essex track. The one that catches the eye is Eoghan O’Neill’s colt Saif Al Fahad. The thing that appeals about this one is that he is sired by Shinko Forest, as is the useful sprinter How’s She Cuttin’, who hosed up at Southwell several weeks ago. Shinko Forest has produced his fair share of sprinters and his record with his progeny on the AW reads 44-325 so I’m hoping Saif Al Fahad’s name can be added to that list after an encouraging handicap debut over course and distance last time out. He ran off 68 that day, and even though he’s up 2 lbs here he has the potential to go well in handicaps judging on his previous efforts in maidens. On his debut at Ayr he had Woolston Ferry behind by three quarters of a length and that rival won a nursery off 73 earlier in the year. At Nottingham he was only 1.75 lengths behind Noble Storm, who has scored off 74 and 82 in handicaps since. The winner of that race, Rafiqa, has won again off 84 since too. The form of his Southwell 5th doesn’t look anything to write home about, but he shaped with promise last time out over course and distance when finishing a quarter of a length second to 72-rated Whatwouldyouwishfor. He had the hat-trick chasing Rainbow Seeker back in third (had won previous two off 59 and 65 and was rated 76 for that race) and today’s opponent Joe Caster, who did win off 77 at Wolverhampton last month, well back in fifth. There is little reason to assume that rival will reverse placings tonight at the revised weights. The form of that race received a further boost when Cool Art (6th) won at Lingfield last Wednesday. Although that race was only a claimer, he had won a nursery off 74 earlier in October. All in all, Saif Al Fahad looks to have a decent chance running off 70 tonight, given the previous formlines and the narrow margin of his handicap defeat last time out. 4/1 Bet 365 (BOG), 10 pts win 8.50 Great Leighs Remember Ramon won well last time out but he’s short in the betting and may be worth opposing at the price as his three wins have come over a mile and a half. Resplendent Light is only 2 lb higher than when winning at Kempton and has hit traffic problems in a few races since. He may want a little further though and does seem to go best at Kempton. Yankee Storm may possibly be better over shorter. War Anthem was awarded an October race at Kempton in the stewards room and is 6 lb higher than his last winning mark so he may have a chance. He was well beaten by Turban Heights at Southwell last time out though so I feel he too may be worth opposing with Action Impact. He’s done well since joining Gary Moore and has won three times over this trip at Lingfield. He ran a decent second behind the progressive Stand Guard last time out in this grade at Kempton to suggest he could be up to winning again soon off his current mark of 70. 5/2 Bet 365 (BOG), 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 12.20 Lingfield Cool Art was a course and distance winner in a claimer last week and is now 2-2 at the track after picking up a 6 furlong handicap in this grade off just a 1 lb lower mark back in September. Although he's been issued a 6 lb penalty for his last time out win, Andrea Atzeni has been booked to offset 7 lbs and he should go well off what is effectively the mark as for his last win. 5/2 Bet 365, 10 pts win. 1.55 Lingfield Dynamo Dane was a horse I added straight into my notebook after he gave 1/5 shot Audemar a fright in Great Leighs maiden last month. This son of Danehill Dancer gave the winner a fantastic run for his money, even though he was unfancied in the market (20/1). I put him up for his next run at <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Doncaster and he obliged at 10/1 and now he's had three maiden runs he qualifies for his first run in a handicap here. A mark of 72 should give a little bit of room for manoevre in the coming months and at a price I take a chance against the favs today as he acts on this surface.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

8/1 Skybet, 10 pts win.

3.05 This looks a competitive handicap with £4,727 going to the winner and many look to have claims based on their present mark. Internationaldebut continues his revival and is gradually rewarding his supporters to compensate from earlier in the year when he was a bit of a flop on turf. He goes well on the surface and won at the course last time out. A 6 lb penalty puts him 6 lb above his highest ever winning mark but she should give another good account, albeit at a short price. He likes to be held up, so will be hoping for a decent pace. Temple of Thebes is 5 lbs above her last winning mark and Ed Dunlop's filly does have a polytrack win to her name from earlier in the year at Great Leighs. She's run off 85 for her last two runs at Southwell though and I'd want her to drop a few more lbs before I backed her. Halsion Chancer has a cracking chance at the weights. He won in this grade off a 2 lb higher mark back in February and although has remained winless since, finished a decent second to Benllech here in a better race than this back in September and has been running in some decent races of against the likes of Russki, Lindoro, My Gacho, Gallantry, Dichoh and Markab. Drops back down in grade here and could go well off 82. Harbour Blues could go well at a big price, running off a mark just 1 lb higher than his last win. Two polytrack wins at Wolverhampton in claimers confirm he handles the surface and is suited to the trip, and a handicap win at Haydock at this level confirms he has the ability to win a race of this nature. He was upped to class 3 level at Ripon where he finished a good second to BondCity, and may not have been suited by the slow ground on his last two turf starts, so he could go well at 33/1. He does like to race prominently though, so he is going to have to take inspiration from Lord Deevert's win here the other month under Jack Dean to go well from stall 10. The Game goes well over CD with a win and a couple of decent places earlier in the year. He last won off 74, and given that that win was in class 3 company, he could go well off 80 here dropping back in grade. He disappointed on his last run at Newmarket but that was a much tougher race than this. He has a break to overcome though. Mambo Spirit is 3lbs lower than his last winning mark, but that win came quite some time ago. He ran well enough off 1 lb lower here when second in October, but his consistency, or rather lack of it, is a concern. Woodcote is another that could go well at a lovely price. Liam Keniry takes the ride and Patrick Chamings' horse is well handicapped on the pick of his form. He won a class 2 handicap off 94 a few years ago and although he is not up to that standard now, he did win off a 2 lb lower mark in August on the AW to suggest he could go well off 76 here. He ran well enough here over 5f recently although he finished quite well back at Wolv lto and is not ultra-reliable. He is also another though would have wanted a lower draw. With Harbour Blues and Woodcote poorly draw it may pay to side with a hold up performer. Resplendent Alpha arrives in good form and could have a chance but I prefer the look of Internationaldebut based on their respective recent course form. This son of High Chapparal shaped as though there was more to come when winning here last week and I think he can hit the back of the net here for owners Willie McKay and Joey Barton. 3/1 >Paddypower, 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 8.50 Kempton The most valuable race of the night is this class 3, 7 furlong race with £7,477 going to the winner. The one that has kept on improving even though he's not managed to get his head infront is Brian Meehan's Swift Gift. He proved he acts on the all-weather by winning his maiden at Wolverhampton last year, although he has been mainly campaigned on turf since. He finished a decent third to Slugger O'Toole on his reappearance at Newmarket off 85 and followed it up with a decent 4th to Fathsta at York next time out. The form of that race has worked out ever so well with the 3rd, Meydan Princess, going on to pick up a listed race for Jeremy Noseda in September and the 2nd, Generous Thought, won a handicap off 100 when last seen. Fathsta himself is a decent yardstick for the form and has been running well off marks in the earlier 90's. Swift Gift runs off 87 here. He contested a class 3 handicap at York off 86 and was only beaten by a length by Tawaash. Harrison George and Opus Maximum who were behind won subsequently to give the form some credence. He didn't get the best of runs when 5th at Sandown and ran a solid fourth over this trip at Newmarket, especially considering he was returning from a break, when he finished ahead of far-superior rated rivals. Those runs were then followed by his most recent outing, on the all-weather in one of the Scoop 6 races here last Saturday. He was running off bottom weight but did so with credit, again finishing ahead of better rated rivals. There was no shame in his 6th placed finish in that class 2 event and the winner Atlantic Story and those inbehind were all decent AW animals in good form at the time. Dropping down in grade here he carries one of the highest weights in the race so I think he can make his class tell. 9/1 Bet 365 (BOG), 10 pt win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 3.25 Kempton Tropical Strait won a very competitive Doncaster handicap when last seen and looks to have the stamina to see out this mile and a half trip. David Arbuthnot's gelding is proven on the polytrack and won a course and distance maiden last September before winning next time out at Wolverhampton too. However, he has progressed quite a bit since that Wolverhampton win, and won his last race off a mark of 95 so it was inevitable that connections would be stepping him up out of handicaps any time soon. He looks to be quite a decent horse, not only did he win at Doncaster but he's mixed it up over this sort of trip in a £63k Newbury handicap earlier this year when he was 2nd of 20 and he had previously won at Newbury in a lesser event, finishing comfortably clear of the field. It is true that he has not yet won at this level, but he is definately worth a try at it and if he is as good as connections believe - they are repotedly training him for a crack at the Ebor next year - then he should be in the frame today. 8/1 Paddypower, 10 pts win. 4.00 Kempton The second listed race of the card and the one with the potential to go well is General Elliott. Paul Cole's Rock of Gibraltar Colt has twice won over a mile and ran with credit in two Group 3 races earlier this season; first when 4th to Eagle Mountain, Bankable and Ordnance Row at Newmarket, and then at the same course over an extended trip where he didn't seem to get home. His last run came again at Newmarket at the beginning of the month when he contested a listed race and was second to John Gosden's Virtual. This looks his level and preferred trip and he should have the class to make a successful transition from turf and take advantage of a handy draw. 3/1 Bet 365, 10 pts win 6.00 Kempton Suits Me can land the finale at the expense of Press the Button and Art Man. Tom Tate's gelding won in this grade last time out at Wolverhampton so unlike many of these is proven at this level. He's up 5 lbs in the weights here from his last win but he stays this far and can go well. Press The Button chased home Millville last week but a 3 lb rise following that second placed effort means he is now 9 lbs above his last winning mark. Art Man acts over course and distance and although only 3 lbs above his last winning mark, is not yet proven beyond class 3 level. 4/1 Paddypower, 10 pts win 8.50 Wolverhampton The last time I backed Just Bond he flopped, big time, but there is no doubting his overall course and distance record and he finished his last race here strongly when a staying on fourth behind Suits Me. He is running off a mark of 83, which he won off last October, and he was behind rivals rated 92, 83 and 89 last time to suggest his last time out form looks solid. With PJ McDonald jockey off I think he is worth backing again as he bids to record his eights course and distance win. 4/1 Stan James, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Suits me won at 6/1 last night after drifting. That was a massive price considering he was one of a few proven in that grade. Just Bond came late but could only take 2nd. Tropical Strait didn't get an ideal run but still took third but General Elliot, my strongest fancy of them all, was a big flop. 3.15 Kempton At the weights, Coole Dodger is better off with Sabre Light than if this were a handicap, but that is assuming the OR's can be taken at face value. I don't think Coole Dodger is necessarily deserving of a rating of 73 so I think Sabre Light is still worth chancing. He goes well at this level and put in gutsy display over CD last time out. 9/4 Bet 365, 10 pts win. 4.15 Kempton Bountiful Bay broke from the stalls slowly last time out last week but still recovered to take second. Bluebok, the third, has ran well since to give the form a bit of credence and she was running up against higher rated rivals that day. Previous to that she finished second to the progressive River Kirov, who won next time out off a higher mark to boost that form too. Her last run came off a mark of 54 and she is only been upped 1 lb here so could get involved again from a decent draw. 11/4 Bet 365, 10 pts win 5.15 Kempton The Racing Post have napped Sendredi, the 2/1 favourite in this race, on the basis that he should get a good lead from his draw. I beg to differ. The presence of Dawson's Creek and Divertimenti, both drawn high too, means this race could be run at a furious speed, and I think it is an ideal opportunity for a hold up performer to pick their pockets late on. With Tobar Suil Lady withdrawn, an alternative pick at a juicy price could be Sofia's Star. S Dow's gelding was a recent winner at Windsor in this grade off a 7 lb lower mark, but didn't get the race run to suit last time out at the same track. The RP commented that he probably wanted a stronger pace, and as mentioned above, I think he will indeed get that today. The other horse that could be suited by a fast pace would be Networker. Jimmy Quinn's mount likes to come from off the pace and is only 5 lbs higher than his last winning mark. Although that win did come some time ago, he ran ok after returning from a break and was 5th behind Pivka last time out. He should come on from that run and as top-weight, warrants respect. Advised bets: 5 pts Networker @ 8/1 Betfred 5 pts Sofia's Star @ 16/1 Bet 365

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Updated results after today..... 24/11 <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Millville/Lord Deevert +35 pts profit 24/11 Monkey Glass -10<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

24/11 Gallantry -10

25/11 Me Fein -10

25/11 Princess Rose Anne/Incomparable -10

25/11 Kinigi +15 pts 26/11 The Tatling -10

27/11 Quince -10

27/11 Saif Al Fahad -10

27/11 Action Impact +25 pts 28/11 Cool Art -10

28/11 Dynamo Dane -10

28/11 Internationaldebut +30 pts 28/11 Swift Gift -10

29/11 TropicalStrait -10

29/11 General Elliott -10

29/11 Suits Me +60 pts 29/11 Just Bond -10

30/11 Sabre Light +22.5 pts 30/11 BountifulBay -10

30/11 Sofia's Star/Networker +75 pts Overall Results Bets to date: 99 + 21 = 120 Strike Rate (inc EW bets that yield profit): 34/120 (28 %) Total pts staked: 947 + 210 = 1157 Total pts returned: 1008.03 +332.5 = 1340.53 Overall profit/loss: +183.53 Thread Records Biggest priced winner: Back in the Red 16/1 (17/11/08) Most backed winner: Back in the Red (16/1 advised into 11/1 SP) Longest winning run: 3 (30/10/08) Longest losing run: 7 (22/10/08 - 23/10/08)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 2.10 Wolverhampton 13 runners are declared for this apprentices staying handicap and there are plenty of plausible contenders at the weights. Dovedon Hero, Blue Hills, Turners Touch, York Cliff and Birthday Star have all won off higher marks in the past whilst Zelos and Snowberry Hill are running off the same mark as from their highest ever win. Cumbrian Knight is only 1 lb higher than his last success. Dovedon Hero has won on polytrack at Lingfield and although is yet to score over this trip, has won over further at Newmarket to suggest he should stay. He's gone well here before and ran respectably with two seconds in higher grade handicaps when last seen. However, he's got a long absence to overcome here. Blue Hills is one of three course and distance winners in the field. He finished fourth behind Irish Ballad last time out here, but was third to Cumbrian Knight at Southwell on his run prior to that. He's 4 lbs better off with that rival today though and the RP suggest Blue Hills was better than the bare result suggested that day. There is no doubting he is down to a decent mark; his last win came off 4 lb higher in March. York Cliff split Blue Hills and Cumbrain Knight that day at Southwell and today is better off with Cumbrian Knight by a pound as he looks to find three quarters of a length. He's 3 lbs worse off with Blue Hills though and that rival was breathing down his neck at the finish. He has conditions in his favour again as trip and going are ideal. Turner's Touch is 11 lbs lower than his last handicap win, but that came way back in March of last year and he's never won beyond a mile and a half. He does act on polytrack though. Birthday Star won a handicap off 6 lb higher but that was two years ago and his only win since came in a claimer. He's dropped 3 lbs since his last handicap appearance, but that came almost a year ago and he may be best watched today. Zelos has won on polytrack before, but has never won beyond a mile and a quarter. He's been well beaten in recent handicap starts though, even before his last run when he was entitled to need the run when returning from a break (btn 14 lengths). He is back down to his winning mark but the market makes him the rank outsider. Snowberry Hill finished behind Zelos in that same race at Lingfield but he too may have needed the run and he looks rather more promising judging on his form prior to his break. He ran a good second to Synonymy off 55 in April and goes off the same mark here. His last win came off 55 (at Kempton in January) too so he looks to have a solid chance again. Trip and ground pose no problems. Suggested bets: Blue Hills 5 pts @ 5/1 Bet 365 Snowberry Hill 5 pts @ 12/1 Ladbrokes

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 2.40 Wolverhampton Lytton is best in at the weights and can make his 'class' tell in this 7 furlong seller. This is hardly going to be a classic race but the fact remains Lytton is the highest rated rival in the field and carries one of the lowest weights so he must have a chance. Formerly with Walter Swinburn, he won on his debut in a class 4 Windsor maiden and even ran in pattern races as a juvenile. He's clearly lost his way this year and running off marks of 95 in class 2-4 handicaps he's been soundly beaten on every start. However, he was dropped down to a mark of 75 and ran over course and distance in a seller last time out, and showed much more promise down in grade, finishing 3rd to Samurai Warrior. The RP stated that he ran below a mark of 75, but he is down a further 5 lbs here and must have a chance up against another bunch of misfits here, even if he isn't as good as his BHA rating. Singleb is the favorite and has gone well in plating company in the past. His best form is on turf though and his draw could have been better so I'm opposing. 4/1 Skybet, 10 pts win.

[Aykay1]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

Overall Results Bets to date: 99 + 21 = 120 Strike Rate (inc EW bets that yield profit): 34/120 (28 %) Total pts staked: 947 + 210 = 1157 Total pts returned: 1008.03 +332.5 = 1340.53 Overall profit/loss: +183.53

Great stuff :clap

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 3.40 Wolverhampton Master of Arms has won a couple of staying handicaps on polytrack but both have been in 0-65 races. Today, he steps up into 0-75 company and running off a mark 12 lbs higher than his last win, he may struggle. He is closely matched with Swords and the pair reversed form with one another in August. He did put in Arguably his best effort to date when chasing home Keene's Day last time out though. Bank on Benny is only 3 lbs higher than his last winning mark and 6 lbs above his last winning mark from over course and distance last month. He ran well under a penalty at Southwell when last seen (in a tougher race than this) when behind Turban Heights and so should go well again with conditions in his favour. Calculating is very well treated on the pick of his form and is 12 lb lower than when winning at Kempton in March. He's plumetted in the handicap since though and made little impact and he was behind Master at Arms last time out. Inchpast has won off 9 lb higher in the past and is 1 lb less than when winning over CD last December. He ran a decent second to Dart last month at Southwell but was well behind Bank on Benny last time here. He gets a handy pull in the weights today but seems best watched for now. Victory Quest is only 3 lbs higher than his last winning mark and he's won off much higher in the past. He too was in that same Wolverhampton race as Bank on Benny and Inchpast and finished third. He's 12 lbs better off today as he looks to overturn a 6 length defeat so cannot be ruled out at all. All of his AW wins have come at Southwell though and he's no certainty to reverse the form. L'Homme de Nuit won here last time out in a 0-65 race. He's up 5 lbs here which demands more but he's with a good trainer in Gary Moore and open to further improvement given he's only 4. Swords is only 3 lbs higher than when beating Master at Arms by a neck here in August in a 0-70 race. He had a useful claimer on board that day though whereas today Tom Eaves is in the saddle, and he has a little to prove after two poor runs in his last two. He does look overpriced though given the respective price of Master at Arms. Suggested bet: Bank on Benny 10 pts @ 5/1 Paddypower.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 4.10 Wolverhampton This looks an ultra-competitive handicap with only 4 lbs seperating top from bottom weight, and there are 13 runners declared! Classic Blue will see out this trip and won on polytrack at Kempton in October. She's gone well here in the past and ran a close second to Lord Theo off her current mark off 55 two runs ago. Last time out she was well beaten by the progressive Stand Guard and was picked off by some late finishers. Thornaby Green is well weighted on the pick of his form but has last win came in August last year. He ran well off this mark in a lade amateurs race at Redcar in October but has been well beaten on his last two starts and so others appeal more. Casablanca Minx is a course and distance winner and could go well given she's 19 lbs lower than her highest ever winning mark. She won here in March off 2 lb higher but was dropped down into plating races before being rested since August she she may struggle back in handicaps. Moment of Clarity is 7 lbs lower than when winning at Haydock in June but he's done little since at the basement level and is best watched. Parkview Love is well weighted on the pick of his form, but the majority of his wins have come over shorter and he's not won for a year. Darley Star is only 4 lbs higher than when winning over slightly further at Great Leighs last time out. She has appreciated the step up in trip on her last two starts for Clive Brittain and makes here debut for Ron Harris here. Racing at 0-55 level again it is quite possible she could find the necessary improvement to take this. Suggested bets: Classic Blue 5 pts @ 5/1 Bet 365 Darley Star 5 pts @ 13/2 Sporting Bet.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 4.40 Wolverhampton Cosmic Destiny is back down to a winning mark and wasn't too far away at Lingfield last time out. She's very versatile with regards to tactics, but if she goes decide to race prominently, stall 1 is a perfect draw for her. Metal Guru is only 5 lbs higher than when winning at Beverley in June. She was close behind Pride of Northcare on her last AW start when she didn't get the best of runs. Stall 9 will not inconvenience as she can win coming from off the pace. Ronnie Howe is 2 lbs above his last winning mark but a wide draw will make things tough here. Bluebok is only 3 lbs higher than his win at Goodwood and he's ran okay since off his current mark. On his last two runs he's been battling for the lead but ended the race well, so he looks a gutsy so and so. Stall 8 isn't an ideal draw though today. Meancog is back down to a winning mark but has done little of late and Ryedane makes plenty more appeal given he's only 4 lbs higher than when winning over course and distance in this grade last month. That win came after being held up but he's won many a time from the front and so a draw of stall 2 here looks ideal. Top Bid is up 5 lbs from his last time out win at Nottingham and although he ran okay at Great Leighs, there is the suspicion he is better on slower ground and others appeal more. Fizzlephut has won off much higher marks in the past and is only 4 lbs higher than when winning at Great leighs last month. He's got a decent draw but he was running off this sort of mark in March and was well beaten. Suggested bets: Ryedane 7 pts @ 6/1 Ladbrokes Metal Guru 1 pt saver @ 10/1 Bet 365 Cosmic Destiny 2 pt saver @ 5/1 Bet 365

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 5.10 Wolverhampton Climate would be dangerous on the pick of his form but he's lost his way a little bit of late. King of Connacht is only 1 lb higher than when winning an apprentices handicap at Southwell in May but did little on his only try here previously. Bailiebrough used to be a decent turf horse but seems to have lost his ability judging on recent performances so the safest bet looks to be Moyoko. She won over course and distance last November off a 6 lb lower mark and ran a decent second to Plush in a 0-60 handicap here last time off 51. She's won off 51 a few years ago at Kempton, and could have a chance running off 54 here as the useful Andrea Azteni claims 5 lbs. 4/1 Sporting Bet, 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

Great stuff :clap

Cheers, AK, getting there slowly.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 3.30 Lingfield The most valuable race on the card is this 0-80 handicap over a mile and a quarter worth £4,700 to the winner. Prince of Light has the ability to take this race having won pattern races several years ago, but he's been dropping down the handicap steadily of late and not managed to get his head infront so may be worth watching again. Emperor Court is only 2 lbs higher than when winning at Windsor in April but has been looking exposed of late and will be grateful for a 2 lb drop in his rating for this. He has a chance too, but a less exposed rival looks to be Hold the Gold. Eoghan O'Neill's colt won here over shorter last December but should be able to stay this far based upon the fact he was a neck second over 9.5 furlongs at Wolverhampton in October. If anything, the slight step up in trip could work in his favour here because he has been starting his races slowly and doing his best work late on. He runs off a mark of 71 tomorrow and ran a decent second to Royal Amnesty off 73 in this grade and finished third to Princely Hero last time out off 74, so looks to have been given a chance by the handicapper. Although he has been dropped 3 lbs since his last run, I don't think he is necessarily exposed, it could just be that he's been giving himself too much to do, so I think he is handicapped to win if he's in the right mood. There is obviously some ability there otherwise connections would not have entered him in a class 2 handicap two runs ago. The fact they booked a claimer for that ride only suggests they were taking a speculative punt at a higher prize that he is usually contesting, but the rivals infront of him that day - Suits Me, Nanton, Final Verse, Just Bond and Intabih etc are better than anything he faces tomorrow, and his placing (9th of 12) is best ignored. Tomorrows race is more on his level. 7/1 Bet 365 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 12.50 Southwell Came Back won a handicap off 90 as recently as May and is a four time course and distance winner. He was running in a conditions event off a mark of 94 in July and it looks like he's not good enough for conditions events, and he's rated too high for handicaps, so he's been dropped down into claimers. He ran in a claimer last month when returning from a 96-day break but was poorly drawn and could only finish 4th to Brandywell Boy. He wasn't far behind Bazguy in a claimer back in August though and I think he should be tough to beat here on a surface that is known to suit. 13/8 Bet 365 (BOG), 10 pts win. 1.50 Southwell Le Petit Vigier finished just a short head behind Kinigi last time over course and distance but received plenty more weight from that rival today. The form of that race was boosted when the winner won next time out (albeit in a claimer) and when Miss Xu Xia won next time out too (albeit in a seller). He should go well again. 5/1 Bet 365 (BOG), 10 pts win 2.20 Southwell The most interesting runner of the day for me is Ridgeway Jazz. Whilst I didn't want to nap him because he's returning from a break, I'm still going to have a play with 20/1 available (Blue Square). He won here in a nursery as a two year old off a 5 lb lower mark and then followed up with an encouraging performance at Wolverhampton when last seen in January off a similar sort of mark. If he's tuned up for his reappearance he could make a mockery of his price off this sort of mark. West End Lad finished behind a well-handicapped Smart Socks last time out and had the inform Kimono My House back in third. He's only up 1 lb here and can go well again. Ridgeway Jazz 20/1 Blue Sq, 3 pts win West End Lad 7/2 Bet 365, 7 pts win 3.20 Southwell Hurricane Harriet has been in good form on the turf and handles a slow surface. Although she's quite a few lbs higher than her last win, she ran a decent fourth behind the useful Amber Queen last time out stepped up in grade and will appreciate the drop back down in trip and class. I think she's worth a go at the price. Cool Sands just did enough to win when getting up late on to beat Steel City Boy here recently. He started badly last time out when third to Efisio Princess but could have a chance off a mark 6 lbs higher than his last win. Hurricane Harriet 9/1 Blue Sq, 5 pts win Cool Sands 8/1 Ladbrokes, 5 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 9.20 Great Leighs Tobar Suil Lady looks a decent bet in a race that looks devoid of lively contenders. Formerly with Kevin Ryan, J Spearing's filly has recorded both of her wins on polytrack, including last time out at Kempton. She is stepping up into unknown territory with regards to the trip (never raced beyond 7f) but she does have stamina on the dams side (dam's sire has a stamina index of 9.2f) and her half-sister was a multiple winner over 8f-10f at 2-3 in Italy. She had been raised 5 lbs from her last win but it is quite possible she can defy that rise and hopefully she can swoop late as she did last time. With regards to the opposition, few have recent winning form and many have been running in non-handicaps. 3/1 Blue Sq looks a decent price. 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 7.20 Great Leighs With Rabbit Fighter withdrawn there are only six runners left in this 6f sprint handicap. Compton Classic is the 9/4 jolly but I can't be having that about a horse that has done his recent winning in claimers and has been struggling in handicaps in the main. He ran okay last time but it was a modest handicap and the winner hasn't done much for the form since. All of the first four home were rated less than 60, so he's going to have to step up to find extra today now up in grade. Asian Power is due to go down 2 lbs in the future and even with a 5 lb claimer on he has a little to prove. The handicapper looks in control. This Ones for Eddy remains a maiden and even his best efforts have come in class 6 handicaps so he could be up against it in 0-75 company. Milne Bay has struggled off this sort of mark in his last two and is another up in grade. Leading Edge is the rank outsider and although well weighted on the pick of his form, is another with something to prove after being soundly beaten in recent starts. That leaves just one, Royal Envoy, who, although far from bombproof, looks decent value against this lot at 6/1. Paul Howling's gelding is at least a regular winner in this grade and infact won an 0-80 race at Thirsk in May off his current mark of 72. He handles this surface having won at Kempton and Wolverhampton and he hasn't been disgraced in recent starts, finishing 3rd to Alexander Hurricane in a better race than this in October before finding a poor draw against him last time at Kempton. He was forced to race wide coming around the bend that day and so had little chance of winning, but with such a small field here traffic problems should be less of an issue. He has the ability to win a race in this grade so I'm taking a punt at 6/1 Bet 365. Suggested bet 10 pts win.