Fintron's AW Thread

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread The three from Lingfield disappointed at short prices, Gone Hunting finished third in the claimer and the other two placed. However, there was more joy from Kempton when Fancy Footsteps won well at a decent price to produce profit on the day. 8.20 Great Leighs Top-weight Ivory Silk has been in good form for her new yard and has been raised only 4 lbs for her win in this grade last time out. This daughter of Diktat was claimed out of Dean Ivory's yard in October and won a handicap off 74 on her first start for Jeremy Gask over course and distance. Connections clearly expected a big run that day and she was a steamer in the market, shifting from 16/1 to 6's in the market and finishing a length clear of Doubtful Sound, who boosted the form with two subsequent wins (the latest off 79). Ivory Silk was raised 6 lbs but defied that rise to score last time, and given she is only four and in good form there is every chance she could land the hat-trick here. Most of the others have slight doubts; Know No Fear and Storey Hill have absences to overcome, the likes of Almaty Express and Wotashirtful and Silver Prelude are likely to battle out for the lead (which would play into Ivory Silk's hands as she likes to sit mid-division), Fromsong has a little to prove based upon recent efforts and First Order, although in with a chance off 75, may not be 100 % reliable now in the care of Ann Stokell. 7/4 Ladbrokes, 10 pts win 9.20 Great Leighs Folio has been in good form of late and Willie Musson's gelding won last time out, beating the progressive and 78-rated Stand Gaurd. The handicapper has dealt him a 2 lb rise and he runs off 73 today, but he has won off higher in the past, notably, 76 in April last year and he goes well at this track with a pair of course and distance wins to his name. He's gone well for Chris Catlin on both of his last two outings and dropping in grade he must have strong claims of a place at the very least. 9/2 Bet 365, 5 pts EW (1/5 odds, 3 places).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Ivory Silk made her move a fraction too late yesterday and although gaining on Wotashirtful with every stride, was beaten in a photo. Luck evened itself out in the nightcap though when Folio got up to win by a narrow margin. He was boxed in on the inside and I wasn't sure whether Catlin would get him out, but he did, and he returned a 9/2 winner. 1.20 Lingfield This looks an interesting maiden and Jeremy Noseda's Theatre Street is entitled to run well and go one better than when finishing a decent second on her debut. However, with her priced up at 4/5 I think the value bet in the race is Acrosstheuniverse. The form of his maiden 4th over course and distance has been rubber stamped with the 3rd and 5th both winning next time out and Sporting Life note in the write up of his last race that he will be better for the race. With the stable firing on all cylinders and with a pedigree that suggests he should be at home on this surface, 8/1 (Bet 365) looks appealing. 5 pts EW (1/4 odds, 2 places).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 7.20 Wolverhampton I've been championing Teasing's cause for quite a while now but she keeps letting me down so today she's drinking in the last chance saloon. Trainer Jeff Pearce stepped her up to a mile and a quarter back in November and she continues to run with credit over this trip, even though all of her wins have come over 7f or shorter. She found only Vine Street too good when second at Great Leighs on the 11th December, but there is no shame in that given Michael Jarvis' horse was unexposed and was open to plenty of improvement. The visor was ditched when she finished 5th over 10f here on her next run, but when it was re-applied at Lingfield in a claimer on the 3rd of January, she put in a brilliant effort, fighting tooth and nail with Slip only to finish a neck off the winner, despite the fact she was 5 lbs wrong with that rival. Her last run came last Saturday in a Lingfield handicap and again she ran with promise. Perhaps she was ridden a little too far off the pace and Jerry O'Dwyer had to switch her out wide as they turned for home, but she appeared to have plenty of juice left in the tank come the finish so I don't think stamina is an issue at all. She's won at the track before, handles the surface without question, and looks to be running off a reasonable weight now dropped down into claiming company. I hope she can be ridden a little bit more prominently, and the fact she competes in a smaller field today could also be a help. 11/2 Bet 365, 5 pts EW (1/4 odds, 2 places). 8.20 Wolverhampton Princess Valerina had been threatening to strike for a while before landing a course and distance handicap on her last start. She took advantage of the fact Dvinsky and Distinctly Game jostled for the lead and picked them up late on to win with plenty in hand. A 5 lbs raise in the handicap for that win seems fair, and racing in the same grade, with Tom Queally again booked, she looks to have a solid chance. 7/4 SJ, 10 pts win 9.20 Wolverhampton Spectait made his move quite early over course and distance 9 days ago but the field failed to reel him in and as a result Jonjo turns him out here under a penalty aiming to cash in before the handicapper reacts. He could still have a chanced based on his old form as he won a decent Goodwood handicap off 95 a couple of years ago and has won on the AW off 84 at Kempton in the past. Today he's rated 84 but he has been in good form since switching back to the AW, perhaps needing the run when 4th at a massive price at Lingfield and then perhaps not finding the Southwell surface to his liking when well beaten by Nightjar two runs ago. 13/8 SJ, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 2.55 Lingfield 11 runners line up for this 0-100 handicap worth £11,657k to the winner and several inform horses take their place amongst the runners. It would be hugely suprising if bottom weight Wotavadun takes his chance though as he's so far out of the handicap its unreal and he is well and truly out of his depth with regards to class. Tamagin is interesting with an eyecatching jockey booking. Jamie Spencer has been in great form when riding for Kevin Ryan, they teamed up on Wotashirtful last night and this race looks a little easier than the Ayr Gold Cup and the Totesport Challenge Cup he's competed in on his last two starts. He's only 1 lb higher than his last winning mark, is a course and distance winner and can go well fresh, so he could be one to keep an eye on in the market returning from a 112-day break. Matsunosuke is in good nick and slammed the field when emerging the clear winning through the Great leighs fog last time out and he is evidently still improving. However, an 8 lb rise from his last win means he may be found out here against a stronger field. Internationaldebut is fluorishing and he comes into this race off the back of a hat-trick. He has finally fulfilled the promise that was evident earlier in the season now switched to the all-weather and he deserves his crack at this pot. He had the beating of The Game at this track in November although it must be noted that Tom Dascombe's horse was returning for a break that day and the distance that seperated them was minimal. A 5 lb rise from his last win means he cannot be ruled out though and he has course and distance winning form to his name. Ebraam is another CD winner who is only 3 lbs higher than his last winning mark, however, he has disappointed followers since as he's without a win in almost a year and this race looks tougher than his last, in which he had Matsunosuke behind. He does get a further 4 lb from that horse tomorrow though. Doubtful Sound kept most of his form to claimers for quite some time, but since being thrown back into handicaps he has responded in magnificent fashion, smashing the field on his second start for Reg Hollingshead and following up at this track for a quick double with another comfortable victory. He was raised 9 lb and flopped last time out but he was hampered at the start when beaten by The Game and Ebraam (did have Fyodor behind) and given his impressive course form 215112421511 you wouldn't past him sneaking a place here. A win may be possibly beyond him in this company, mind. Fyodor is one that has to be caught on a going day and although he won at great leighs back in November, he struggled off higher marks subsequently, flopping in a Lingfield claimer when he should have won with plenty in hand (suspicious betting patterns were noted that day!). He did win his last start in a Southwell claimer, but this is plenty more tougher and although he's only 1 lb higher than his last winning mark, he can't be guaranteed to give his running. Little Edward hacked up in a course and distance claimer last month but has failed to follow up in two subseuqnet tries in handicaps. He's knocking on now aged 11 but was a fair second last time out. He has been put up another 2 lbs here though which seems a tad harsh. Mr Lambros is well handicapped on the pick of his form as he's 4 lb lower than when making all to score at Wolv last January. However, its hard to make a case for him after comprehensive thrashings in recent starts, even if a 5 lb drop in the weights entitles him to improve. El Dececy looks like he has been deployed as a pacemaker by connections to set the race up for Internationaldebut. He's 2 lb lower than his last winning mark but has fitness to prove and it appears he is here merely in a supporting role. The Game arrives in tip-top shape and looks for the hat-trick under regular pilot Richard Kingscote. A pleasing second to internationaldebut on his reappearance was followed up with a course and distance win and he then defied a sharp rise in class to win a 0-100 race at GL last time out when smashing the track record. Verdict The presence of several front-runners means this race could be run at a furious pace between the likes of The Game, El Dececy and Tamagin and the race could be set up for a fast finisher. Doubtful Sound may track the leaders but may be a tad high in the handicap, the same of which can be said for Matsunosuke, who is likely to make his move late on. Another making a late dash will be Internationaldebut, and this son of High Chapparal may be the one to cash in on a potentially destructive battle for the lead set up by his stablemate. He was entered in the Racing Post Trophy as a juvenile so potentially has the class to take this. 7/2 Bet 365. 5 pts EW (1/5 odds, 3 places).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 4.00 Lingfield Atlantic Story is a standing dish around here and has won 5/7 starts, the latest off 103 in a 0-100 handicap two starts ago. He has been raised 5 lbs now but is unstoppable on the all-weather. He was 4th in a listed race last time out but up against the useful Duff, and there is no shame in finishing behind 104 and 107 rated runners up either. Red Somerset and Titan Triumph may be handicapped to fill the places, but they lack the class of Mick Easterby's gelding and I fancy him to win again. 3/1 Bet 365, 5 pts EW (1/4 odds, 3 places. note: most other bookies EW at 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread I was a little disappointed with yesterday's results. Acrosstheuniverse was in contention as they turned for home but the two market leaders stamped their authority on the race late on. I've lost patience with Teasing, although she came late again and wasn't ridden closer to the pace as hoped. Princess Valerina was in contention as they entered the final few furlnogs but was soundly beaten. Spectait was a massive drifter but turned out to be a good thing under a penalty and a 11/4 win on that practically saved the day. The two for today, posted last night, I both strongly fancy and have backed in an each-way double. Id be very suprised if neither made the frame. Atalntic Story has been backed overnight into joint favourite with several firms. Fingers crossed.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Terrible day yesterday with both not even making the frame. On to today....... 2.20 Kempton The Magic Rio is top-rated for this claimer and although he probably isn't as good as his rating suggests, he may just have enough to win this poor looking race. He won nursery handicaps off 79 and 84 and if he is realistically rated a little above that, accounting for a little bit of subsequent improvement, he may just have enough to beat 73-rated Just the Lady, the Dandy runner who he concedes 5 lbs to today. The last named picked up a couple of turf handicaps over the summer and joined the sprint king out of a seller in September. It would hardly be a surprise to see this one win given the trainers reputation, but he returns from a 93-day break and Magic of Rio, who has been kept on the go over the winter, could finally bring trainer Peter Grayson off the cold list. Evs SJ, 10 pts win 2.50 Kempton War and Peace was heavily tipped up by other PL members on his last start and finished a decent second to sharp improver River Kirov in a handicap. He was headed late on so the drop back to the minimum trip should help, and his berth in stall 8 is handy to suit his running style. A former Ballydoyle inmate, he has been running consistently and must be up to landing a race sooner of later. 7/4 Bet 365, 10 pt win 3.20 Kempton Doncasaque has struggled a little back in handicaps. Barwell Bridge may be seen in a better light now handicapping, although is closely matched with Doncasaque on recent form. Supernoverre has saved all best form for plating level up to now so is passed over. Perhaps the two most likely winners are Mark Johnston's Bushveld and Gary Moore's Blaise Tower. The former won a maiden in convincing fashion last time out and starts life handicapping off 77. This Cape Cross colt probably has a bit of room for manoevre off that mark, but the lack of form boosts mean I have marginal preference for Blaise Tower, who has been raised only 1 lb for his handicap win last time out. He stayed on well to lead in the final strides so the step up in trip here seems sensible and the plus side of his narrow win (hd) is that he now has to find little improvement to score here off his revised mark. 2/1 Boyle, 10 pt win 4.50 Kempton River Kirov is in unbeleivable form and goes for the four timer here. He had a little bit more in hand than the winning margin suggested last time and it will be interesting to see if the second boosts the form earlier on this card. The potential fly in the ointment could be Dvinsky, whose middle name is consistency, and he is very dangerous granted a soft lead, which he could get again here. A 6 lb rise from this lto win makes this tougher, especially with RK in the line up, but if anyone is to spoil the party it could be him. Can be easily backed at 10/1 as a saver to RK. RK 5/4 SJ, 8 pts win Dvinsky 10/1 SJ, 2 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Results update after today:

11/1 Dvinsky (1st) +30

11/1 Bavarica (3rd) -10

12/1 Desert Dreamer (3rd) -10

12/1 Milne Bay (1st) +10

12/1 Sabancaya (4th) -10

13/1 Desert Strike (1st) -0.83

14/1 Gone Hunting (3rd) -10

14/1 Rebel City (2nd) -10

14/1 Black 'n Brew (2nd) -10

15/1 Fancy Footsteps (1st) +35

15/1 Ivory Silk (2nd) -10

15/1 Folio (1st) +27

16/1 Acrosstheuniverse (3rd) -10

16/1 Princess Valerina (4th) -10

16/1 Teasing (4th) -10

16/1 Spectait (1st) +27.5

17/1 Internationaldebut (9th) -10

17/1 Atlantic Story (4th) -10

18/1 The Magic of Rio (PU) -10

18/1 War and Peace (2nd) -10

18/1 Blaise Tower (4th) -10

18/1 River Kirov (7th)/Dvinsky (5th) -10

Overall results: Bets to date: 240 + 22 = 262 Strike rate: (inc EW bets yielding profit): 76/262 (29 %) Total pts staked: 2357 + 220 = 2577 Total pts returned: 2473.27 + 188.67 = 2661.94 Overall profit: 116.27 - 31.33 = +84.94 Yield: +3.3 % Thread Records Biggest priced winner(s): Back in the Red, Sofia's Star 16/1 (17/11/08, 30/11/08) Most backed winner: Back in the Red (16/1 advised into 11/1 SP) Longest winning run: 4 (14/12/08) Longest losing run: 15 (1/12/08 - 6/12/08) Results over the weekend have been terrible and have eaten into the profits made in earlier month to reduce the overall yield. The likes of Ivory Silk and Black 'n Brew have come very close to winning and if they had gone in then a profit would have been made for the week, but I think these things even themselves out in the long run and I'll get a few photos going in my favour next week probably. I thought Internationaldebut and Atlantic Story were nailed on to place yesterday and both flopped. It was sods law that of the five Kempton selections I posted in the Kempton thread today, the one I didn't include in this thread was the one that won (poor class race and was only a tentative pick though)! I suppose I need to be more selective if I'm to improve the yield, but I like to have several bets a day for more interest - afterall, I bet for fun, not a living. A profit is always nice though.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Money is coming in for this now so I'm posting up now before the price possibly shortens further overnight. 4.30 <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Wolverhampton <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Thirteen runners line up for this class 5, 0-70 handicap worth £2,730 to the winner. Like the rest of the card, it looks a competitive affair with plenty of runners declared, however, the one that catches the eye is the unexposed Antillia, who races from near the bottom of the handicap. Chris Wall’s filly is lightly raced and has got better with every outing since making her debut in a Nottingham maiden in October. The form of her 4th to Shavansky in a Lingfield maiden on the 19th November in particular looks a decent piece of form as the fifth, Cape Express, has won his last two, including in a class 4 handicap off 83 last time out, the third, Anaabelle’s Charm, hacked up in a Lingfield maiden when last seen the other day and the second, Wine ‘n Dine has managed to land two races since going handicapping, off 75 and then 81. Antillia’s last run came in a Lingfield handicap at the start of December and she made her mark with a win off 62, finishing half a length infront of Epsom Salts, who is a reliable yardstick for the grade. She has been raised 5 lbs as a result of that win but given the aforementioned form I think she has room for manoeuvre in what looks a winnable contest. She is a half-sister to the prolific 1m2f-1m6f winner Scotty’s view, so the step up in trip here shouldn’t be a problem and she is proven on the surface so ticks all the boxes for me.

5/2 Bet 365, 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Yesterday's bet disappointed but there was clearly something amiss with her as she dropped to the back of the field in the back straight. Plenty of money came for her as she went off 5/4 fav, she remains well handicapped and will be one to note when she's fit and well. The Blue Square odds compiler certainly knows how to get my business (gone top price on Dvinsky twice in recent weeks) and the 28/1 he's offering for Excusez Moi has tempted me into a thread selection here. 2.30 Southwell Excusez Moi - as the odds imply, this one is a risk proposition and several others are more reliable. However, if he were to be on song, he definately has a chance. He finished 4th in a £93k Ascot race in the summer up against some top handicappers and even had a crack at a couple of Group races too (no success in those though). However, he beat some useful AW horses when landing a listed race at Lingfield back in February and he is proven over this trip. He hasn't yet won on this surface but has form on soft from the flat so may take to it okay. He carries top-weight and concedes weight to plenty of inform horses but a 5 lb claimer eases the burden slightly and having changed yards recently, there is the hope he will come on for a recent outing at this track which will have blown away a few cobwebs. He missed the break, but that race was over 5f, and he has an extra 2f to race over here. He will need to break better for sure, but a slow start may not be the be all and end all as it is over five. He did plug on to finish mid-field last time which was promising. A 28/1 chance to clearly not one to have maximum faith in, but hoping for a bumper payout as none of the others look bombproof. 10 pts win (Blue Square).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread There was no big payout in the 2.30 at Southwell unfortunately. Compensation may be gained tomorrow though on what looks a great days AW racing. I think a Yankee may be in order. 3.50 Wolverhampton Plush - can be considered a course and distance specialist with form figures of 41112 and that latest second, last time out, could easily have gone down as another victory, such was the narrow margin of his defeat behind Hyde Lea Flyer. He travelled strongly late on and looked to have just got up, only for the judge to rule differently (btn s.h.). Ross Atkinson clearly knew how to get a tune out of him and even though Richard Kingscote takes the ride tomorrow, his excellent course form should still stand him in good stead. He shapes as though there is further improvement left in him and dropping back down in grade he must have a strong chance. 5.20 Wolverhampton Milne Bay must be of obvious interest running in a penalty in this class 5, 7 furlong handicap. David Simcock's Tagula gelding looks hugely progressive and slammed the field over course and distance here eight days ago when he had the race wrapped up several furlongs from home. That win completed a quickfire hat-trick but there could be plenty more to come from this bright prospect and he is likely to go up more than 6 lbs when reassessed so looks well in indeed. His winning sequence started at Great Leighs back in December when he had Leading Edge, who won next time out off 67 to boost the form, back in second. That win came in an apprentices race and thus he was unpenalised for his next outing, when travelling strongly close home and beating River Kirov by two and three quarter lengths at Wolverhampton. Michael Wigham's horse boosted that form in emphatic fashion with a hat-trick of subsequent wins, the latest off 74, and the form was further advertised by the third, Fancy Footsteps, who ran out a comfortable winner at Kempton last Wednesday. During his last start he raced at Great Leighs with Sendredi in opposition, but none of the other horses ever looked like taking the race from him, so he is an ultra-confident, maximum stakes bet for tomorrow. 8.20 Kempton Harald Bluetooth carries top-weight for this class 3 handicap over a mile but if he is to justify his position in the ante-post market for the Lincoln then he should be able to successfully concede weight all around here. Formerly with James Fanshawe he showed good form on turf before making his debut for David Simcock last time out, which was also his first start on the all-weather. I left him alone last time because he was returning from a break, but he won well that day, extending the winning margin with every stride and a rise in the weights may not prevent a follow up here for this lightly raced colt. 8.50 Kempton Zuwaar won well over course and distance the other weekend and again, I'm keeping faith with him as he looks to land a fourtimer. Since Ian Williams stepped him up to two miles he has been in great form. He often hangs left at the finish but still does enough to win each time. Jockey Donohoe's last two rides on him have both been successful and although he has to deal with an 8 lb rise he is going the right way and you can't put it past him to win again. Prices to be confirmed in morning.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 6/5 Harald Bluetooth, Ppower, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread The prices I got matched last night are <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Milne Bay 1.99 - 10 pts (even money for this looks a great bet, could go off half of that)

Plush 4.0 - 2 pts

Zuwaar 3.75 - 2 pts

Harald Bluetooth 2.36 - 2 pts

I am also doing a graduated stakes Yankee with 6 x 0.5 pt doubles, 4 x 0.25 pt trebles and a 0.1 pt fourfold.

However, for the purposes of profit/loss calculations for the thread all bets will be calculated singularly to these prices which everyone can get.....

Plush 5/2 Bet 365, 10 pts win

Milne Bay 4/5 Bet 365, 10 pts win

Zuwaar 5/2 Paddypower, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Plush won comfortably earlier and Harald Bluetooth won with a top ride from Spencer. However, Zuwaar may now be in the grips of the handicapper and Milne Bay was a devastating flop. He met with trouble in running but looked below par regardless and I will treat him with caution next time out as he will no longer be as well in when reassessed. I'm busy tomorrow and not sure if I can take prices. I'll post up if I have time, if not, these will be settled to SP. 2.30 Wolverhampton Plenty of pace in the line up here as Dodaa, Back in the Red, Godfrey Street and Harry Up all like to lead. So Sublime looks to have stiff task at the weights and First Trim seems to lack consistency so this could open the race up for Desperate Dan, who beat Harry Up by a short head in a Great Leighs claimer in September. He's 3 lb worse off with that rival tomorrow, but could capitalise if they do go off at a frantic pace. He seems generally reliable in this grade and may be ready to go again after a little break. 5 pts EW 3.25 Nad Al Sheba I haven't kept up to date with the notebook that I started when I first began this thread (noted as a point of action when I get a spare minute), but one of the old entries is Redding Colliery. He hacked up in a Kempton when last seen and has since moved on from Jane Chapple-Hyam's yard. Hasn't beaten much to date but won impressively nonetheless and open to improvement as a lightly raced colt. 5 pts EW 7.20 Kempton Slip is best in at the weights but was given a fright by inferior rated Teasing last time out so I think Sabre Light can give him plenty to think about here. Another Jeff Pearce horse, Sabre Light has been in great form at plating level in recent months, winning five of his last seven. He hit trouble in running when 5th two starts ago too, so that placing can be excused. Has a little bit to find with the top-weight on these terms but is in good form and could feasibly bridge the gap. Hopefully suspicious betting patterns won't emerge with him again. 10 pts win 7.50 Kempton Stonecrabstomorrow (nap) finished close up to Mafaheem and One More Round last time out and with the added bonus of that run under his belt (returned from lengthy break), he may be able to reverse the placings tomorrow, especially since he's getting weight from Mafaheem and is handily drawn in stall 9. Trainer Richard Fahey is coming into form and he looks to be running off a decent weight for this seller. Has won over this trip before, handles polytrack without question, and has to be respected in this grade bearing in mind he's now officially rated 64 but has previously won off 13 lb higher in a handicap. 10 pts Win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Desp Dan 13/2 Bet 365, 5 pts EW (1/4 odds 2 places) Redding Colliery 16/1 SJ, 5 pts EW (1/5 odds 3 places) Sabre Light 13/8 SJ, 10 pts win Stonecrabstomorrow 3/1 Blue Sq, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 2/4 bets landed a return today. There was a 20p in the £1 R4 for Sabre Light, but he hacked up in the claimer. Redding Colliery was a decent third over in Dubai. Desperate Dan, like the rest of them, was left for dead by Jamie Spencer on Harry up in the 2.30 at Wolves. Jamie is riding out of his skin at present and seems infallible in his current form. Stonecrabstomorrow finished second in the 7.50, but profit was made on the day. Again, I may be pushed for time tomorrow, so will declare these to SP unless I can take a price first thing. 2.50 Lingfield Northern Desert is well handicapped on the pick of his form; racing off 75 bearing in mind he's won off 10 lb higher in the past. He arrives in good form and was a solid third behind Mogok Ruby last time out and with the eyecatching booking of Jamie Spencer for the Kevin Ryan yard, he must surely enter calculations tomorrow. He's been defeated narrowly off 74 and 75 at Wolverhampton and Kempton in his last two starts and the presence of infrom Spencer in the saddle could offer that little bit extra to lift him over the line (won together four starts ago). This actually looks a competitive little race; Thoughtsofstardom has been in good form at the track but a hike in the weights makes life more difficult here, and Nickel Silver, despite an impressive win last time out, is also up against tougher opposition here now upped in grade. Chijmes isn't out of it at the weights but has a 60-day absence to overcome, so with Spencer on and first time cheekpieces applied, Northern Desert could be the call. 5 pts EW 3.25 Lingfield Stand Guard is the epitome of consistency and Paul Howling's Danehill gelding simply ran into a well handicapped rival in Spectait last time out. He has continually finished in and around the frame this season and the handicapper has had no choice but to keep raising his mark as a result. He's 10 lbs higher than when winning at Kempton in November but a series of solid efforts subsquently would suggest he is still improving. Spectait has franked the form of his last time out second by scoring under a penalty last week for Jonjo. 5 pts EW, 7/2 Bet 365 (3 places, 1/4 odds) 4.00 Lingfield It is not often I back a horse first time out in a maiden but I think Lacrosse could be one of the few debutants that can land a race on their first start. On paper, this Cape Cross colt looks to hold a super chance as he's related to Derby winner Love Divine. Hailing from the Michael Jarvis yard he warrants respect on the AW, and the trainer has some decent stats to boast too: he's 2 from 5 in the past two weeks (both of last two runners have won), and he's 16-62 (+18.04 LSP) with his 3 yo's. If his colt is to fulfill his Derby entry and justify his 150,000 Guineas price tag then he should be making a big splash here. The market will tell us all we need to know about his chances. 10 pts win 8.20 Wolverhampton Hellbender is in good shape at the minute and ran a respectable second last time out behind Five Star Junior. Sylvester Kirk's Exceed and Excel Colt has already shown his effectiveness over sprint distances, as his breeding would suggest, but last time out shaped as though he would get this extra furlong and he runs off 72 again tomorrow - 7 lbs above his last win. He's lightly raced and still looks to be improving so I'll back him again after a winning nap two starts ago. 10 pts win 8.50 Wolverhampton Kabis Amigos was a fairly useful horse when with Dandy, well for this grade anyway, and although he is winless for his current yard he caught the eye last time out when beaten by a nose in a photo over course and distance by Silver Wind. Racing off a mark 19 lbs lower than his last handicap win he is very well handicapped if in the same mood, and is due to go up 10 lb when reassessed so looks well in indeed. 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Northern Empire 6/1 Betfred. 5 pts EW (1/5 odds, 3 places) Stand Guard - price posted above Lacrosse 3/1 Bet 365 - 10 pts win Hellbender 2/1 Bet 365 - 10 pts win Kabis Amigos 3/1 Bet 365 - 10 pts win

[devil tish]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

Northern Empire 6/1 Betfred. 5 pts EW (1/5 odds, 3 places) Stand Guard - price posted above Lacrosse 3/1 Bet 365 - 10 pts win Hellbender 2/1 Bet 365 - 10 pts win Kabis Amigos 3/1 Bet 365 - 10 pts win

with you on northern empire in the 2.50. the 6/1 looks tempting..best of luck m8:hope

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread cheers, William Hill are offering 13/2 I just noticed so think it's worth an each-way bet with them. Hopefully Spencer can bring him home late on........

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 7.20 Wolv My continual faith in Teasing has been driving me insane and I said before her last start she was drinking in the last chance saloon after a series of near misses. She ran respectably again though with a late burst to suggest she gets the trip, but wasn't ridden how I would have liked (she was too far off the pace). Today she races in a field of four so should be in contention all the way round without having to find plenty at the end so this really is her last chance! 9/4 Bet 365, 10 pts win.

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread Results update:

19/1 Antillia (11th) -10

20/1 Excuze Moi (6th) -10

21/1 Plush (1st) +25

21/1 Milne Bay (6th) -10

21/1 Harald Bluetooth (1st) +12

21/1 Zuwaar (5th) -10

22/1 Desperate Dan (3rd) -10

22/1 Redding Colliery (3rd) +11

22/1 Sabre Light (1st) +13 (20p R4)

22/1 Stonecrabstomorrow (2nd) -10

23/1 Northern Empire (2nd) +1

23/1 Stand Guard (4th) -10

23/1 Lacrosse (4th) -10

23/1 Hellbender (3rd) -10

23/1 Kabis Amigos (10th) -10

23/1 Teasing (1st) +22.5

Overall results: Bets to date: 262 + 16 = 278 Strike Rate: (inc EW bets that yield profit): 82/278 (29 %) total pts staked: 2577 + 160 = 2737 total pts returned: 2661.94 + 144.5 = 2806.44 Overall profit: 84.94 - 15.5 = +69.44 Yield: +2.54 % Thread Records Biggest priced winner(s): Back in the Red, Sofia's Star 16/1 (17/11/08, 30/11/08) Most backed winner: Back in the Red (16/1 advised into 11/1 SP) Longest winning run: 4 (14/12/08) Longest losing run: 15 (1/12/08 - 6/12/08) Another disappointing week really although it did end on a happy note with Teasing finally rewarding my faith in her with a win in a claimer. Antillia and Milne Bay were huge disappointments and I was banking on them for a return. I'll hope for better next week to try boost the yield.

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 3.40 Wolverhampton Nine runners are declared for this class 5 handicap over 1m 1f 103y. With an eyecatching jockey booking of Jamie Spencer, Kevin Ryan's Svindal could be well backed after a string of placed efforts and Nighty Nutjob could give a good account for Jeff Pearce following a promising effort in a handicap last time out. Crazy Colours may improve now handicapping, but the one that interests me most at the prices is Mullitovermaurice. James Given's gelding has ran solid races on his last two starts at Dunstall Park over 9 furlongs, picking up a claimer on the 30th December and then putting in a decent effort when a short head second to Double Act when last seen. That last race came in a claimer when he was 12 lb wrong with the winner, so the close proximity of the finish is admirable and the form has been boosted through the winner, who won next time out in a claimer, and the third, who picked up a handicap off 63 next time out. Similarly, the form of his claiming win was boosted by the third who has since won in handicap company off 58. Those pieces of form suggest he should be capable of landing a race off 63 and with Hayley Turner, who won on him two starts ago, booked, he should give a good account. 9/2 Blue Square, 10 pts win 4.40 Wolverhampton Stabinios King won cosily over course and distance a week ago and bypassed a weekend engagement to take his place in the line up here. Karl Burke's charge competes under a 6 lb penalty but could still be up to the task here given the form of his Lingfield 3rd two starts ago. The second was rated 75 and unexposed and the winner, Trafalgar Square boosted the form yesterday with a follow up win off 79. He makes his first start since moving on from Michael Wigham's yard, but travelled supremely well last time and is a consistent performer in this sphere. 11/8 Betfred, 10 pts win

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread Mullitovermaurice was a beaten second in a photo finish and Strabinios King was hampered by a horse which had unseated its rider and caused it to be unsettled. The jockey had to restrain it as he chased the stray, and that played into the hands of the eventual winner, who was able to burn off the tiring Strabinios King, getting up narrowly at the line. 2.40 Lingfield Eleven runners line up for the William Hill Telebetting On 0800 44 40 40 handicap this afternoon. Dinner Date has been in good form at Kempton but may be a tag high in the weights now, and those with course and distance form - Dudley Docker, Hucking Hero, Paradise Dancer and Pegasus Again - all have something to prove on the evidence of last time out form. Of that quartet, Hucking Hero and Pegasus Again make the most appeal at the weights as Hucking Hero is running off a mark 1 lb lower that his last win and Pegasus Again is back down to a winning mark. However, all could up upstaged by L’Hirondelle and Ocean Legend who filled the minor placings behind Harald Bluetooth over this trip at Kempton in a higher grade handicap last time out. The former is lightly raced for his age and looks the least exposed of the pair after only four career starts. After refusing to race on his debut he gained compensation at Kempton in November when a wide-margin winner over 9 furlongs in a maiden contest. He hung right around the bend when stepped up in trip on his next start here when 5th of 12, but appreciated a drop back in trip last time out when keeping on only to be headed inside the final furlong. However, the well-backed winner was an above average sort for the grade and is prominent in the betting for this years Lincoln and looks quite useful, considering he actually pulled up lame after that race so won despite not being at his best. Ocean Legend split the pair last time and was a length infront of the third, but he always seems to find one or two too good and has won only once from 18 starts. The yard’s runners have been running consistently, and running off idential weights again tomorrow they could both be closely matched again. However, Michael Attwater too is enjoying a good time of it of late with a 40 % strike rate from ten runners in the past fornight, and there is every reason to believe that after such a small number of starts further improvement is possible for his gelding, who can feasbily reverse the form and scoop the £4,857 prize. Stan James 11/2, 5 pts EW (1/5 odds on 3 places). 8.50 Kempton I was impressed with Bushveld during his last run at the track, a race in which I backed the unplaced Blaise Tower, who was my nap that day. He ran a sound race and looked the winner before finding no extra at the finish. However, bearing in mind that performance and the fact he is by Cape Cross, this drop back to a mile should be definately in his favour, and I think he can add to a comfortanble maiden win at Wolverhampton two starts ago. Skybet 10/11, 10 pts win 9.20 Kempton Only six line up for the nightcap but after only three runs to date, Cheap Thrills looks the least exposed runner in the field and looks to start her career in handicaps off a realistic mark. The form of her maiden 3rd at Olynard at Lingfield reads well as the 4th and 6th have both won since in handicaps (off 69 and 65 respectively) to put Cheap Thrills' 70-rating into some sort of context. She was returning from a break when last seen and put in a decent effort on the rail to land a Lingfield maiden and with the benefit of that run and a realistic mark off which to start handicapping she could feasibly notch up a double here. 3/1 Stan James, 5 pts EW (1/4 odds, 2 places)

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread L'Hirondelle won well yesterday but Bushveld (2nd) and Cheap Thrills (3rd) were disappointments. I noticed that My Best Bet was likely to have the beating of CT on a formline through Princess Cagliari, but I only noticed after I had stuck my bet. Nevertheless, I would have probably still gone CT EW at the price because I thought he was well handicapped. On to today. 3.20 Southwell Take Me There - a former Paul Nicholls runner that started in a few bumpers before moving onto join John Berry. He has a good record here with a win and a second from two starts on the sand and he ran a very good race last time out when beaten 0.5 lengths as he came from off the pace to hunt down the leader. He failed to get up, but shaped as if another 2f would suit and he is unexposed at the trip. The form of that race suggests he has a chance off 72 as he was close to the 72-rated winner and was well clear of Hucking Heat in third, and the latter has won in handicaps off 67. He also had Puy d'arnac Behind (reopposes here). The other that interests me at a bigger price is Victory Quest who has won ten times at the course and is a multiple course and distance winner. He's 7 lbs above his last winning mark but Southwell likes to throw the odd upset from time to time and with him being so consistent the price on offer looks big. I actually backed these two last night at 9/4 and and 23/1 (see Southwell thread) but these prices are available to anyone now and will stand for P/L purposes. Take Me There 7/4 Bet 365, 9.5 pts win Victory Quest 33/1 Stan James 0.5 pts win

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 7.20 Wolverampton Every so often i find a horse that I think it due to win a race and constantly bleat on about them to a few of my racing buddies, much to their frustration (ask Wizzkid Walter lol). Fancy Footsteps and Teasing are two from recent months, and Garlogs (11/1 SJ) is another. Both of those have rewarded my faith in them so I'm hoping Garlogs can do the same today. I fancied his chances a couple of runs ago, just after he had returned with a pipeopener at Southwell, but he finished 4th. However, I refuse to write him off yet and I think some of his efforts in stronger company suggest he may have another race in him some time soon. The handicapper has cut him a bit of slack with a 1 lb drop in the handicap but, importantly, Reg Hollingshead replaces Hayley Turner with Russel Kennemore tonight and that could make all the difference with the latter's 3 lb claim. Secondly, he has been running in 0-95 and 0-85 handicaps recently, and today drops back down to class 5 level in a 0-75 race which means he is a big fish in a small pond and carries top-weight instead of running from the bottom of the handicap as in recent runs. Lastly, he has also had the benefit of a recent break, and his profile suggests he is at his best returning from a break of a month a so. As a consequence, I think his last run can be ignored as he was turned out after a break of just a week. The only slight concern I have is that he may be challenged for the lead by someone such as Incomparable, but he is well drawn in stall 3 and can go well at a price. If a battle for the lead does emerge, then Figaro Flyer could be the one to capitalise. He's been running well over course and distance and off his current mark of 70 and is generally consistent and likely to give his running. He's a decent price too at 7's (Bet 365) so I'll take those two against the field and hope they can end Clive Cox's excellent run (he sends out the short priced Drifting Gold who goes under a penalty). 8.75 ptsGarlogs @ 11/1 Stan James 1.25 pts saver on Figaro Flyer @ 7/1 Bet 365

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 7.50 Wolverhampton I've backed Scarab a couple of times now as I felt he was well handicapped and likely to win anytime soon. However, he proved frustrating to follow so I avoided him last time (incidentally my runner from the Prescott yard was a non-runner anyway) and like all horses on your notebook do when you give up faith, he won. I hope that now he has managed to get his head infront he may string together a few more wins because he comes from the powerful Johnston yard, who are in fair form, and could still have a chance off 82 here (following a 5 lb rise from lto) given a couple of bits of form, such as a decent second to 88-rated Paktolos at Kempton in November. The third, Lochiel, boosted that form with a nto win and came close off 83 when last seen. His second to Clear Reef also suggests he has a chance of his current mark as that rival has come close off 82 since. Profits Reality is entitled to get closer to him today but is open to less improvement and the last comment applies to the favourite Ahalwy, who was competing in a claimer not so long ago and may be found out running under a penalty. Heathyard's Pride is another that has dipped into plating races to re-find some form, but he was soundly beaten back in handicap company last time and is opposed. Lapina may find the company too hot tonight; although she been in good form on the AW, she must prove she's worth her place in this class 4 line up. 3/1 Stan James, 10 pts win

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread Yesterday was a disappointing day. Firstly, Scarab was withdrawn. With a 20/1 shot picking up that race you have to think he would have had a great chance of winning that had he raced, especially since Profit's Reality, the main danger IMO, flopped and Ahlaway got done over. Garlogs did not get the race run to suit, as feared, Incomparable jostled for the lead and as soon as they hit the 1f pole he simply ran out of steam and tailed off right back to last. Perhaps he is a little exposed for now, I'll probably duck that one next time out. Take Me There put in a decent effort at Southwell but ran out of steam inside the final furlong. Up to then he was bang in contention so maybe a drop back in trip will help that one. 9.20 Wolverhampton Confidentiality's 33/1 success last time out came as a shock to connections as she apparently shows nothing at home and her efforts in Ireland hardly suggested a return to winning ways was imminent. She goes under a penalty here though and I think that may find her out. Mozayada has been in very good form for Mel Brittain but this polytrack will be a different proposition to the Southwell fibresand and so I think Teasing could be the call. She's been in very good form in recent months since stepping up in trip and finished a credible second to Slip in a Lingfield claimer before being raced too far off the pace when finishing strongly in subsequent runs at Lingfield and Wolverhampton over this sort of trip. However, she finally managed to get her head infront over course and distance last time when dropped into a claimer and into a small field. As there are only six runners in the line up here I think that will suit her again as I feel she can get swamped in large fields and give herself too much to do late on. Robert Havlin seems to get a tune out of her and is booked after partnering her to her win last time out. The visor, with which all of her best efforts have come, is also on. She too carries a 6 lb penalty but could still have a chance based on her old form and I think she is relatively unexposed at this trip. 6/1 SJ 5 pts EW (1/4 odds, 2 places).

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread 2.10 Lingfield Bavarica has been running very well of late and deserves to take a race anytime soon. She was gaining on the winner with every stride last time out at this track, when defeated half a length over a mile and a quarter, and prior to that she was denied by only a short head at Great Leighs. She is an exciting horse to watch as she possesses a turn of foot and makes her move late on when others are tiring. Amy Baker gets on well with her and her last win infact came over course and distance at the beginning of the month so she should could go well again bearing in mind how close she's come off this sort of mark in recent weeks. General Feeling is a two time CD winner who has been put up 4 lbs but could still have a shout as he's won for Paul Hanagan before. 8.25 pts Bavarica 5/2 SJ 1.75 pts General Feeling 5/1 Blue Square

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread I'm away at the PL meet up this weekend so having to post all my weekend bets up now and will take SP's for P/L calcs. Lingfield: This looks a very poor card for the first four races, but comes to life in the fifth with a valuable handicap prize up for grabs. 3.20 Lingfield Thoughtsofstardom was in rampant form at the back end of last year over CD but his inevitable rise in the handicap seems to have stifled his progression as he is forced into entering higher grade handicaps, in which he seems to be a little out of his depth. For now, I'll pass over this one. Ebraam isn't too badly treated on the pick of his form but he's proving frustrating to follow and hasn't won in almost a year. I fancied Doubtful Sound to sneak a place last time but he went even better and caused a 12/1 upset in a decent little Lingfield handicap. However, I wonder if a 7 lb rise may prevent a follow up. Little Edward was back in second, (btn 2.25 lengths) so will hope to reverse placings with a 6 lb pull in the weights, however, he keeps getting raised in the handicap without winning. Matsunosuke has picked up a couple of decent handicaps over the winter and is ultra-consistent on polytrack, however, I don't know if he can win off his current mark, 8 lbs above his last win and the possible lack of pace in the line up wouldn't suit his come-from-behind style. Bearing that in mind, by pick is Swiss Franc. Dominic Elsworth's colt recorded some strong form over the summer, notably placed efforts in the Coventry Stakes at Ascot and Gimcrack Stakes at York, both Group 2 contests. He has never won outside of maiden company but any horse that can get within a length of Henrythenavigator, one of the outstanding horses of 2008, is clearly no mug and he brings the most impressive form in the race to the table. He is effective over sprint distances, as his sole win came over the minimum trip, and his 3rd to Duff in a listed race at this track in November suggested, like many class horses, he will take to the surface okay. Duff went on to frank that form next time out and running off 100 I think he has a good chance at a decent tissue price (8/1 SL). 3.55 Lingfield I backed John Terry last time out and i think he ran a solid race considering he was returning from a break. However, he is vulnerable to an up and coming type off his present mark and for that reason I will side with Wine 'n Dine (nb). I've been following Gary Moore's gelding in recent starts since he started handicapping and although he finished a close second on his handicapdebut at Kempton, he reversed the form with his conqueror, Cape Colony, next time out and then followed up with another win when stepped up in trip at Kempton when last seen. In my opinion, this trip is the bare minimum for him, but he's clearly one on the upgrade and a 5 lb rise from his last time out win may not foil him in the bid for the hat-trick. 4.25 Lingfield I put up Folio for his last run and he just did enough to land the race from Just Observing. Although he is back up in grade, he is proven at this level and he has infact won off higher handicap marks in the past. In such good form he warrants respect, but I don't think he beat that much last time to be fair and Willie Musson's nine year old may be vulnerable to a sharp improver. I think Annabelle's Charm (nap) fits the bill. Luca Cumani's filly begins life in handicaps of a mark of just 72 and I think that looks overly generous considering the form of her maidens. Third on her debut to Shavansky, the second, Wine 'n Dine, has recently won off 81, the 5th, Cape Express, off 83 and the 4th, Antillia, looked all set to win before seemingly suffering from an injury a couple of weeks ago at Wolverhampton. She raced in a field of only four last time out but got the job done well, and starting off just 72 here I think she's a cracking bet if anything like the tissue 7/4.

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Re: Fintron's AW Thread I'm ducking Southwell on Sunday. On to Wolverhampton on monday. 2.20 Wolverhampton The final declarations haven't been made for this race yet, but if Plush makes the final cut, he would be of obvious interest. Tom Dascombe's gelding has been in fantastic form over course and distance in recent months and still seems to be progressive, judging by an easy win last time out. Bearing in mind his recent form has come in handicaps, he must have very strong claims for this claimer over his favoured CD, especially since he may be able to run above his current official rating with further improvement. 10 pts win