Fintron's AW Thread

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 6.50 Kempton My Best Mate ran a decent race last time even though she was hampered, winning a nursery at Wolverhampton. She's been raised 8 lbs here and up in trip, but should get it on breeding and is lightly raced and open to further improvement. 5/1 Lads, 10 pts win. 8.20 Kempton I'm already on Finicius EW in this but keep going back to Duff, for the reasons mentioned above, and are backing him too. 9/4 Lads, 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 7.20 Great Leighs Just a field of four here for this novices race over 6f. Noverre to Go looks best off at the weights, rated 89 but conceding just 2 lbs to Moscow Eight and Newyln Art (would be 4lbs and 15 lbs better off in a handicap) and infact receiving 7 lbs from recent nursery winner Lesley's Choice (who is 19 lbs wrong based on official ratings). Tom Dascombe's colt won a nursery handicap at Lingfield off 82 last time out, justifying favouritism in another small field, and he'll hope to do the same again here under the same jockey and over the same trip. He should prove too good here. Evs, Bet 365, 10 pts win. 7.50 Great Leighs A staying handicap here and Weybridge Light will be hoping for another big run at a track at which he seems to do well. He's become a bit of a Thursday night regular here and won his first two races since coming over from Ireland before going down narrowly to Azabu Jaban, under a penalty, last time out. That rival was weighted to reverse the form, and it is interesting that the trainer has ditched the 7 lb claimer from last time out and replaces with Dane O'Neil. He's 6 lbs above his last win, which did come at this level, and the fact he drops in grade from his last run may also help. Dayia won a listed bumper at Sandown and has been knocking on the door on the flat so could be the main danger. She was backed off the boards on a previous run here when losing by only 0.56 lengths in a maiden and he was beaten by just 0.94 on her handicap debut last time off 69 by Master of Arms. Up 3 lbs here, but clearly has ability and potential for improvement. 7/2 Bet 365, 10 pts win. 8.20 Great Leighs The highlight of the card is this class 2, 5 furlong dash. Top-weight Fyodor was a course winner in November but a 7 lb hike in the weights and a step up in class (to this level) found him out on his next run, and it looks like the handicapper may be in control for now. Ebraam hasn't won since February, but that win did come at this level and off 93, suggesting he has a sniff running off 97 here. A decent second to Warsaw at Kempton in September off 98 suggests he is up to winning off this mark if on song. Paul Howling's decision to step him up to 7f on his last two runs may have stretched his stamina a little, as all wins have come over 6f or shorter and he drops back in trip today. At Kempton three runs ago he was running over 6f and had every chance before finding no extra in the final 100 yards. Matsunosuke has been running consistently but until the assessor shows him a bit of lee-way a win off 90 in this grade may be beyond him. I keep writing off Doubtful Sound at my peril and he hosed up last time out in a race where I'd backed the second and third. He's clearly in good form by the jockey does me no favours and a 9 lb rise and a sharp rise in class may bring an end to his winning sequence. The Game runs under a penalty after winning at Lingfield last time out. He must prove himself at this higher level though, and that, coupled with the penalty, means I don't fancy him for today. Harry Up won for Jamie Spencer at Wolverhampton last month but failed to follow up last time under Neil Callan. That was probably due to a poor draw, but I have a sneaky suspicion that he isn't quite good enough to win a race at this level. Catlin also rides and I jinx anything he's ever on so thats another reason why I'm passing over. First Order did me over when I was on Southandwest the other week. I dismissed it because Ann Stokell was on and whilst she rides again today, the real reason I'm opposing is because he's up in class. I'll lap up the 9's on Ebraam with Paddypower all day long, 10 pts win. 8.50 Great Leighs Grande Caiman won impressively last time out beating the course and distance specialist War of the Roses at Lingfield. Richard Hannon's colt is now running off a career high mark of 99 because of a penalty, but won in this grade last time and has a excellent record on the all-weather (all five of his wins have come on this surface). I think he arrives in much stronger form than many of these and although Slip and King's Head may get a little closer to GC, I think he's still worth backing to confirm placings. 2/1 Bet 365, 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 9.20 Wolverhampton Gallantry - course and distance winner in October last year who is only 2 lbs higher than when winning at Lingfield in this grade in October. Didn't get the openings at Lingfield in November and then started slowly when miles behind Mister New York on his following run. However, finished a decent third last time out when bumped inside the final furlong, finishing behind a rampant Internationaldebut. His last run here came in October and he was beaten by only 0.75 lengths by Wasp (had Wilkandoo behind) so I think he can be just as good here as he is at Lingfield off what looks to be a competitive mark. 11/2 Bet 365, 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 2.05 Lingfield This listed race over a mile and a quarter is the highlight of the day for me. Seven face the starter and it looks far from clear cut. Suits Me has gone from strength to strength in recent months for Tom Tate, and lumped another monster weight around Great Leighs last time out when winning a handicap off 103. The handicapper has raised his rating to 108 now, so handicaps may be out of the question for now. He arrives looking for the five timer, gets on ever so well with Micky Fenton, and fully deserves a crack at this decent pot. He must, however, prove himself at this level on what is his listed debut. What he has achieved this year has been very impressive; he began 2008 running off a mark of 84 and whilst his improvement isn't of the same magnitude of fellow AW performer Atlantic Story it is impressive nonetheless. Will try and dictate the pace. Dansant is top rated at 114 and is perhaps the classiest horse in the race. He's a four time listed race winner with the most recent coming at the end of last month over a mile and a half at Kempton. He won't mind the drop back in trip and is infact a course and distance winner. Eddie Ahern is likely to sit off the pace and attempt to deliver him late, and he is the only runner in the field that has repeatedly proven he is up to winning at this level. Bon Spiel will be ridden by Jamie Spencer but Luca Cumani's horse looks to have quite a bit to find with these on official BHA figures, especially with Suits Me. The latter finished half a length infront of Bon Spiel last time out at Great Leighs, but is over a stone better off on these terms. Grand Passion is a course and distance winner and makes his first start for Chris Wall since leaving Geoff Wragg. He has previously won listed races, the latest of which came here last November, but his efforts this season temper enthusiasm and he looks one of the least likely winners. Re Barolo is a horse I've followed quite a bit this season after backing him in a York handicap back in June. He has been stepped up in class since that day but has failed to win subsequently. He undoubtedly acts on polytrack and hails from a decent AW yard, and his recent efforts have been entirely respectable. He chased home Sir Michael Stoute's rejuvenated Spanish Moon over a mile and a half and had Schintillo behind, before finding himself short of room and checked last time out. I think he possibly does have the talent to win a race at this level, but he's third on my list tomorrow. Scintillo hails from Richard Hannon's yard and looks to be running off a handy weight bearing in mind he has the joint-second highest rating here. He is yet to win outside of maiden company and isn't proven over the trip as he has tended to race over further, but he has bits and pieces of form to suggest he is worth his entry here. It appears he may struggle to get closer to Re Barolo on these terms though, based upon the fact he was getting 6 lbs from the Botti horse at Kempton recently and receives only half of that tomorrow. Harvest Queen has been running in some decent group races this year and although found that level of competition beyond herself, has been running with credit dropped back down to listed level. A 1.75 length 3rd to Yahrab over course and distance last time out (had Re Barolo back in 4th by a neck) and a short head second to Baharah over a mile here look decent bits of form in the context of this race. Looks like another plodder here though and I'm not sure sure she, like the rest, will be able to keep tabs on the early leader. Verdict Looking through the line up there is the distinct possibility that Suits Me will be able to dictate the pace of this race throughout with the majority of the field looking happier to come from behind. None of Dansant, Bon Spiel, Grand Passion, Re Barolo, Scintillo or Harvest Queen look obvious challengers for his lead, so I'm hoping Tom Tate's only runner on the card can make it a worthwhile trip for his trainer and extend his magnificent winning sequence. 7/2 Bet 365 (bog). 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 2.40 Lingfield The market has, this morning, told us everything we wanted to know about which is the strongest contender of the Jim Boyle pair. Top-weight Cinematic was a course and distance winner when last seen but returning from a 408-day break is priced at 25/1 at present. <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Risque Heights is the other Boyle runner and is priced at a mere 3/1 and with George Baker booked, that could be indicative of his chances of success relative to his stablemate. The latter won over this trip at Kempton last time out and the form of that race has been franked by the second, Valdan, who won next time out (earlier this week). A 6 lb rise may not necessarily be prohibitive to his chances and he won off a much higher mark at a higher level last season so the jump in class from last time out shouldn't be too much of a concern. The main danger IMO is Saucy, with Tom Dascombe's stable flying at present. He won impressively in a lower grade last time out and has a 7 lb higher mark to contend with here. If he'd have been a little higher in the weights I may have chanced him but RisqueHeights gets the nod for me. 10/3 Stan James (bog), 10 pts win <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

3.20 Lingfield An interesting race to end the card with Sunday winner Thoughtsofstardom amongst the field, Luke Morris runner justified odds on favouritism that day but he's effectively running off 69 here. That is an 11 lb increase from last time out, whilst this is also a step up in class, so I'm opposing today. The one that could take the race could be Bookiesindex Boy, who had Thoughtsofstardom behind by half a length on his last run. He concedes 4 lb less today and may be able to extend the winning margin as a result. Bookiesindex Boy himself is only up 4 lbs from his lto win, and as that came in this grade, he doesn't have a great deal of improvement to find. As top-weight I think he deserves respect. 6/1 Paddypower (bog), 10 pts win

6.20 Wolverhampton On these terms Torrens looks to have a decent chance. Only half a length off Bridgewater Boys last time out this former Richard Fahey horse is 6 lbs better off with that rival tonight and may be able to hold on for the win this time. He is certainly good enough to win at this level, as he placed in a couple of AW handicaps off his current mark over CD (including one over CD) so the drop into selling company here may see him go one better. A couple of others look to be racing off better weights, but Torrens has arguable better recent form and is backable at the prices. 6/1 Bet 365 (bog), 10 pts win 9.20 Wolverhampton Plush was given a patient ride by Ross Atkinson and won here last Friday and after being withdrawn from a race earlier in the week when Charles Eddery was set to ride, I think the pair can rack up another win here. Plush has won three times over CD in his last four runs and the fact he's only been raised 4 lbs means he may still be able to cope with a sharp rise in class. Top-weight Spinning ranks as the clear danger, as he's only 3 lbs higher than when winning in this grade last time out, so I'm backing him too.

Spinning 5/2 Paddypower, 5 pts win Plush 3/1 Paddypower, 5 pts win

[mccauley39]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Wot a load of bollix! Needed plush to win , it was last leg in a lucky 15 and a small acc. Id like to see the photo of that finish, it took so long to call the result i thought they were goin give a dead heat. if ross atkinson hadnt taken such wide route it would have won noooooooooooooo :@

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread I didn't see the race last night mate but it looked a tight result judging on the official distances. Plush isn't a straightfoward type as he often breaks badly and his hold up style means its quite plausible he will hit trouble in running, but Atkinson seems to get a good tune out of him in general and I think the animal is still improving as he's only gone down by a nose in a higher class race there. Hard luck about your bets though, always annoying when the last leg of an acca lets you down.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 2.50 Great Leighs This looks like a competitive dual between Stand Guard and <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />

Wellington Street

. The former racked up a hat-trick at Kempton before his sequence came to an end when sharply upped in class last time out. He drops down a level today, and is 8 lbs above his last winning mark. Form of his last win working out well with Action Impact and Valdan recent winners. Form of his last race looks okay too as Lochiel has won subsequently and Scarab was an unexposed Mark Johnston runner. My only concern is that Andrea Atzeni was deployed last time out but with Ian Mongan on today, that adds another few pounds on his back.

Wellington Square

bids for the hat-trick and Hughie Morrison's gelding won the last of those races over this trip at Kempton. He races in the same grade again here, and raised only 4 lbs from his last win, he must have strong claims of taking this. The majority of the field have been well held in recent starts, Folio is perhaps the only danger to the aforementioned pair. He was a fair third last time out to Supercast and Just Bond, but IMO he will have to raise his game to finish infront of

Wellington Street

and/or Stand Guard Here.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Wellington Street

13/8 SJ, 10 pts win

3.20 Great Leighs If Chris Catlin cannot get Kaolak home here then I really will give up with him. The form of Kaolak's debut fourth looks very strong indeed with 2nd, 3rd, 7th, 10th (Crowded House, my ante-post fancy for the Derby) all landing races subsequently. Once I'd seen that form I backed him for his next run at Yarmouth, and although he flopped, perhaps the soft ground didn't suit given his US pedigree. He ran with more promise when third here last time out over this trip. He was behind BarwellBridge, but that rival has now been withdrawn, and that should boost his chances of shedding his maiden tag.

4/1 Bet 365, 10 pts win

3.50 Great Leighs I think Samarinda has claims for what looks to be a wide open event. Pam Sly's gelding looks competitively weighted as he often competes in this grade and is only 4 lbs higher than his last win at this level which came at Kempton in October. He was starting from a poor draw that day so was held up, and he may have to do the same from stall 10 today, but he seems versatile tactics wise as he's won from the front and racing in mid-division too, so he could be adaptable depending how the race pans out. Hopefully his last run can be ignored as he broke badly.

10/1 Paddypower, 10 pts win

4.20 Great Leighs Another decent race on the card here. Lone Wolfe has been a model of consistency in recent months and was finally rewarded with a decent win last time out. He was racing at the level above and won off 87, so clearly he has strong claims here dropping down in grade and racing off only 3 lbs higher. Atzeni claimed 5 lbs for his last win and with Ross Atkinson booked today he gets several valuable pounds taken off again. Dvinsky is another consistent animal and he is well drawn to make all. IMO he needs to drop a couple of pounds further if he is to win in this grade though and with Lone Wolfe also drawn handily, there is the worry a damaging duel could be on the cards for the lead. If that happens then the one to capitalise could be Matsunosuke. He raced here on Thursday in the same race as my selection Ebraam. They were late off and I was watching them circling the stalls and thought he looked the pick of the bunch. He ran a really good race from off the pace and almost nicked the win from the Game, so he is clearly in good heart and can go well here. He's 5 lbs above his last winning mark and hasn't won since last October but he's done enough recently off 90 to suggest this mark isn't beyond him. Little Edward won well a week ago in a claimer, but this looks much more competitive. Ingleby Arch won last time out at Southwell, but again, in a weaker race that this, and he must improve to win.

7/2 Paddypower, 10 pts win

[RussP]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Great results today, Fin. A couple of winners and the 10/1 shot finishing in the mix - shame you didn't take the EW. The only disappointment being the shortie! Another nice profit, keep it going mate:ok

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

Great results today, Fin. A couple of winners and the 10/1 shot finishing in the mix - shame you didn't take the EW. The only disappointment being the shortie! Another nice profit, keep it going mate:ok

Cheers Russ, hope to see you on here a bit more regularly with your own thread now?

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread results update 15/12 Prince Golan (1st) +45<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

15/12 Machinate (4th) -10

15/12 Shortwall Lady (4th) -10

16/12 Kinigi (5th) -10

16/12 Yakimov (4th) -10

16/12 Garlogs (8th) -10

17/12 Sabre Light (5th) -10

17/12 Wind Flow (6th) -10

17/12 My Best Mate (5th) -10

17/12 Duff (1st) +22.5

17/12 Finicius (6th) -10

17/12 Wine 'n Dine (1st) +18.75

18/12 Noverre to Go (1st) +10

18/12 Weybridge Light (4th) -10

18/12 Ebraam (4th) -10

18/12 Grand Caiman (1st) +27.5 (bog)

18/12 Gallantry (4th) -10

19/12 Suits Me (2nd) -10

20/12 <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />RisqueHeights (1st) +35 (bog)

20/12 Bookiesindex Boy (6th) -10

20/12 Torrens (4th) -10

20/12 Plush(2nd)/Spinning (3rd) -10

21/12 Wellington Square

-10

21/12 Kaolak (1st) +40

21/12 Samarinda (3rd) -10

21/12 Matsunosuke (1st) +35 Overall results Bets to date: 168 + 26 = 194 Strike rate: (inc EW bets that yield profit): 54/194 (28 %) Total pts staked: 1637 + 260 = 1897 Total pts returned: 1760.23 + 313.75 = 2073.98 Overall profit/loss: +123.23 + 53.75 = +176.98 Thread Records Biggest priced winner: Back in the Red, Sofia's Star 16/1 (17/11/08, 30/11/08) Most backed winner: Back in the Red (16/1 advised into 11/1 SP) Longest winning run: 4 (14/12/08) Longest losing run: 15 (1/12/08 - 6/12/08)

[DM99]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Got some decent stats Fintron! Hope it continues! :ok

[peteg40]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Good Thread mate

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Thanks for the comments guys. Lingfield 1.00 Not betting here but will be keeping tabs on Straight Face, I horse that brought in the money on a few occasions last winter until cursed by Spencer. Returns from a 126 day break today but will be interested to see how it gets on. Lingfield 2.00 Fyodor looks to have fantastic claims at the weights. In a handicap he's be giving lumps of weight to all of these, but concedes much less today with this being a claimer. Mutamared is capable in this grade but the fact remains he'd be getting 13 lbs more from Conor Dore's horse if this were a handicap. Fyodor was an impressive winner at Great Leighs but has paid the price subsequently in some decent handicaps after his mark was raised. The drop back to this level should see him back in the winners enclosure today. 10/11 Bet 365, 10 pts win

[Spooner]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Well done yesterday mate. :clap

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 2.20 Kempton The form of Supercast's last time out Wolverhampton win was boosted when Folio picked up a fair race at Great Leighs yesterday afternoon and Supercast has been raised only 3 lbs here for that win . The fact he drops in grade means he probably doesn't have to find much improvement to win. He's proven over the trip and handles the surface well. Only a head denied him a course victory here in February last year, so the course looks to pose no problems. 5/1 Bet 365, 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 4.20 Kempton Many of these like to come from off the pace so I'm going to put up Asian Power who, despite an average looking draw, may still be able to get a handy early position. He is well handicapped on the pick of his form as he won over course and distance off 70 in February and is running off 67 here. The handicapper has shown him a bit of leniency after his disappointing run at Southwell last time, but he was challenged for the lead and didn't get the race run to suit. The 3 lb drop will help, C & D are fine and Mr Cool Shane Kelly takes the ride. 16/1 Skybet 5 pts EW (1/4 odds 3 places).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread I've just been looking ahead to tomorrows cards and it looks a poor days racing. I refuse to bet at Southwell at the minute as some freak results seem to be going on, so instead I've got another bet for today with a view to having a day off tomorrow. 4.50 Kempton This doesn't look a great race and I don't think the favourite is necessarily going to win as he's returning from a break. Although he looks well handicapped and the yard is in good form, I'm passing over Ravi River in favour of Charming Escot. He's got a handy draw and is a course and distance winner. Although the races he won earlier in the year were only 0-55 races he has shown more in handicaps since, going down by only half a length to Comrade Cotton before fading in the closing stages last time out. The booking of a 5 lb claimer today should help so at 6/1 with Boylesports, he's my bet. Suggested bet 5 pts EW.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread A couple for Boxing Day. Won't be around to take a price, so will have to take SP on this occassion. 3.45 Wolverhampton Scarab looks unexposed and should be up to winning at some point off his current mark of 77. An impressive winner of a Catterick maiden over this trip, he was defeated by only 1 length off 76 on his handicap debut at Kempton to suggest he acts on polytrack. The form of that race has worked out well with Lochiel, second, winning next time out off 77 at Wolverhampton and the 3rd, Stand Guard, running well off 78 when last seen at Great Leighs. Everything points to him being well handicapped and coming from the Mark Johnston yard he warrants respect. 10 pt win @ SP 4.15 Wolverhampton I put Teasing up for her last run and she ran a cracker ar 16/1 to finish second to Michael Jarvis' unexposed runner Vine Street. She has ran credibly twice now since being stepped up in trip, and looks to be running off a fair mark, only 1 lb higher than her last run, 9 lbs lower than her last winning mark from back in June. She handles the surface no problem and hopefully can run well for Jerry O'Dwyer again after a promising run last time together. 10 pt win @ SP

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 8.50 Great Leighs Lyceana looks to have a cracking chance on only her second start in a handicap. Michael Jarvis' Medicean filly had Bullet Man back in 4th in a maiden and that rival has just won on his handicap debut off 75 for Luca Cumani, beating Action Impact in the process. The handicapper has let Lyceana in on 74 here, so she could be weighted to score. The form of her maiden win was further boosted by the 5th, Fosool, recently, and although she disappointed lto at Ling, she deserves another chance running off this mark now stepped up in trip. 3/1 VC Bet, 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 12.15 Lingfield Resentful Angel - Pat Eddery’s filly made her debut in a Kempton maiden in August finishing 6th of 8. She was reluctant to enter the stalls, not keen to leave them and was always behind as she ran green that day. However, like any newcomer, she was entitled to need that race, and displayed more promise next time out when fifth at this course over a mile and a quarter. Again, she ran a little green, but she got closer to the winner and fared more promisingly until fading late on. Connections decided to drop her back in trip at <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Wolverhampton, and racing over 7f she was beaten by only half a length by Azure Mist. Her maiden form isn't the strongest you will ever see, but it doesn't need to be for this modest contest and a few bits and pieces of form hint at her being well handicapped. On her debut she was a place behind E Major who has picked up a handicap off 70 since. Although she was miles behind Aboriginie, at least that rival has shown a little bit of promise since by winning off 78 to give the form of the race a little bit of creditability. At Lingfield she was narrowly behind Special Reserve, and that horse has been running to marks in the 70’s in handicap company and then last time out she was second to Azure Mist, who was narrowly beaten off 65 in a recent handicap. Resentful Angel makes her handicap debut off 64 here and could get her head infront now stepping out of maidens. win. 3/1 Paddypower, 10 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread keeping faith with Mafeking for tomorrow... 4.10 Great Leighs Six runners are declared for this class 3 handicap over a mile and a quarter. Australia Day heads the weights running off 92 and returns to the flat after finishing second over hurdles last time out at Ludlow. He won a Sandown handicap off 81 in July and finished a short head behind Amanjena (rated 87) in a conditions race at Ascot two runs ago. That wasn't a bad bit of form considering he was giving 9 lbs to the winner and the leading pair pulled quite a few lengths clear of horses rated in the 80's. Although the trip is fine, he does have to prove his effectiveness on this surface though. Baylini hasn't won since January and is 11 lbs higher than that here. She has a lower turf rating and came close off 78 at Windsor in September, but she looks a little exposed on the all-weather off this sort of mark. Trip and ground are fine but its understandable why she is the outsider of the field. Sgt Schultze acts on this surface without question but he would probably be happier at Lingfield and racing over further as the majority of his wins have come over a mile and a half. He is well handicapped as he won off 1 lb higher in March, and Luke Morris claims 3 lbs here, but he is looking to score over this trip for the first time at the 9th attempt here and so is opposed. Mafeking finished second to Suits Me at Kempton recently but failed to reverse the form when more handily weighted last time out at this track. He is dropped back down a 1 lb in the handicap as a result of that performance so has a chance based on the weights as his last win came off his current mark of 86. He's won twice over this trip and undoubtedly acts on this surface, although he does have a little to prove after his last run. In his defence, Suits Me is a top AW animal, rated in the 100's and ran respectably in a listed race on his last appearance in the aftermath. Cupid's Glory is the only previous course winner in the field, having won a low grade handicap here in September over this trip. He was only a head behind Ben Ami on his next run here, again over CD, but this race demands more. He's now 14 lbs higher than his last win, and racing up against higher rated opposition here I'm happy to pass over. Robby Bobby carries bottom-weight and Mark Johnston turns him out under a penalty following an easy win at Southwell last time out. The form of that race is debatable though as the two that chased him home are rated only 70 and 62. He has to prove himself on this surface (unplaced on two previous tries) and although the trip should be fine, he looks opposable for the time being, given the Evs tissue price, now upped in class. Verdict Robby Bobby and Australia Day look the likely pacesetters with Mafeking, Cupid's Glory, Sgt Schultze and Baylini likely to be dropped in behind. I think the Johnston runner could be outclassed here anyway, but the presence of him in the field could be to the detriment of Australia Day should the pair do battle upfront. Mafeking wasn't suited by the way the race was run last time as he sought to reverse form with Suits Me, as the Tom Tate rival was allowed to set a steady pace and make all, but his second to the same horse at Kempton reads as a decent bit of form in the context of this race and given that he is proven on the AW I have preference for him over Australia Day. If the race is run at a faster pace he could be the one to profit if he sits in nicely behing the leaders. RPF 8/1. 10 pt win @ SP

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 2.30 Lingfield (Tuesday) Kingsgate Storm makes his handicap debut and looks to have a belting chance running off 80. This is a horse that contested a red hot Ascot maiden back in June and the form of that race looks very, very strong indeed. KS finished 8th, Khor Dubai (9th) won a nursery off 85 shortly after and won a conditions race rated 102 when last seen, 10th, Light The Fire, won a listed race next time out, 12th, Brae Hill is rated in the 90's, 13th placed in a Group 3, 15th has picked up two nurseries, latest of which was off 73. Kingsgate Storm was only half a length off John Gosden's Donatavium in that race, and that rival is of the highest class, winning all of its next three, culminating in a Group 1 at Santa Anita in the Breeders Cup. I could spend hours going through the many boosts this piece of form has had. He was put away for several months and made his comeback run at Great Leighs earlier this month. They ran over this 6f trip but he tailed off in the final stages. However, that was entirely understandable as he may have needed the run, and he could be fully tuned up to go here. Like many juveniles he may improve now stepping out of maidens, and given what looks to be a very generous rating of 80, I be be smashing onto this on Tuesday. George Baker is a top AW jockey and I have full faith in him to bring him home. 10 pts win @ SP

[Gingertipster]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread This is impressive tipping Fintron. Liked the draw stats at the beginning too. May be I should look more closely at the All Weather racing, it is getting better quality each year. Just don't have enough time for both jumps and AW unfortunately. One question: When you do those draw stats, do you ever look at the type of horse that bucks the trend? I know from doing the same low, middle, high at Goodwood; often the badly drawn horses that win are front runners / race prominently. So you can get a value bet on a badly drawn horse who (if no front runners drawn better) could dominate / get a good position and win. Although now that Goodwood have taken to having a false rail ending halfway up the straight, front runners don't quite have the advantage they once did. Excellant work Fintron and good luck for the New Year. Not that there is such a thing. Ginge

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 7.20 Wolverhampton Imaginary Diva looks to have a solid chance, raised only 3 lbs more than her win last time out at Southwell in this grade. She acts on polytrack too and finished second to Newlyn Art at Great Leighs earlier in the month. That piece of form was boosted earlier today when that rival won at Lingfield off 72. 6/4 Skybet, suggested bet 10 pts win 7.50 Wolverhampton Sands Crooner was visually very impressive when winning over course and distance last month and this former Derek Shaw sprinter is only 3 lbs higher as he looks to register his second win for James Given here. He was unlucky last time out when he ran into a rampant Doubtful Sound, but he hit a bit of trouble that day and still had a few of tonights opponents behind - The Tatling and Almaty Express. 15/2 William Hill (bog), 5 pts EW (1/5 odds on 3 places)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 8.20 Wolverhampton Pseudonym was talked up ahead of his last AW start but failed to justify favouritism. Again, he contests a weak staying handicap here, but he's no guarantee to exploit his seemingly good mark, just 1 lb higher than his last win (Sep on turf at Bath). Synoynmy pops up from time to time here and is a CD winner. He won off 57 in May so has a chance on these terms, but he's another that has been off colour of late and is probably best watched for now. Zuwaar was subject to support last time and the Ian Williams horse had been threatening to score for some time. He runs off the same mark here so must enter calculations. CD winner last time so conditions known to suit. I put Snowberry Hill up for his last run and he won an apprentices race here over shorter. However, he ran a decent second over CD in a standard handicap here in April to suggest he could go well here. Only 2 lbs higher than that recent win, and at least he arrives here in decent form. Spume won at Great Leighs last time out and isn't much higher in the weights here, although does have stamina to prove. Zuwaar, 5 pts 7/2 Blue Square Snowberry Hill, 5 pts 14/1 Sporting Bet

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 8.50 Wolverhampton With the withdrawl of Epic Odyssey and Methaaly only six go to post for this handicap worth £5k to the winner. Yungaburra is up 7 lb from his last success but has won off 1 lb higher in the past. Was prolific here for Tim Pitt in previous years and seems to have regained his appetite. Will be dangerous coming back from the sand at Southwell. Mrs Penny has an absence to overcome and making Uk debut I'd want to see it a bit shorter in market to suggest connections are confident of it going in here. Dvinsky is a pillar of consistency. Ran another brilliant second last time out to Matsunosuke, and there is no shame in that as that rival had been threatening to land a race anytime soon and a nice gap appeared for him on the rail as he won off 90. Dvinsky is only 2 lbs higher than his last win and even though he's drawn wide with only 6 in the field he could still get a handy position early on and dictate the tempo. Silvanus was second to Sands Crooner here over shorter last month. Then finished ahead of that rival when it ran under a penalty last time out, and form of that race has been boosted by Doubtful Sound who won next two. Fast Freddie in third was in good form at the time and winner won here two minutes ago to boost form further. Seems to handle surface, and trip seems okay, as a son of Danehill Dancer. Memphis Man is back down to a winning mark but has been well beaten in this grade of late. Trainer enlists help of a claimer to suggest he's probably a little exposed. Ravi River was talked up ahead of a recent handicap run at Kempton. He was entitled to need that run after an absence and ran a highly respectable second to an inform rival from the bottom of the handicap. Was rated 83 a couple of years ago, so clearly well weighted, but may prefer further as never raced shorter than 7f and speed for this would have to be taken on trust. 7.5 pts Dvinsky 7/2 Lads 2.5 pts Silvanus 6/1 Paddypower

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread 9.20 Wolverhampton Gainshare is a previous course winner that is 6 lbs higher than his win here last month. However, he has won off 2 lb higher in the past so cannot be ruled out. Was a big drifter last time but still finished a respectable second. Form of apprentices race in Nov worked out well with 2nd winning off 74 NTO and 5th winning off 70 NTO. Could have EW claims at a big price if seeing out trip. Sire's stamina index suggest should stay this far. 20/1 Bet 365, 1/4 odds on 3 places. 5 pts EW

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread

This is impressive tipping Fintron. Liked the draw stats at the beginning too. May be I should look more closely at the All Weather racing, it is getting better quality each year. Just don't have enough time for both jumps and AW unfortunately. One question: When you do those draw stats, do you ever look at the type of horse that bucks the trend? I know from doing the same low, middle, high at Goodwood; often the badly drawn horses that win are front runners / race prominently. So you can get a value bet on a badly drawn horse who (if no front runners drawn better) could dominate / get a good position and win. Although now that Goodwood have taken to having a false rail ending halfway up the straight, front runners don't quite have the advantage they once did. Excellant work Fintron and good luck for the New Year. Not that there is such a thing. Ginge

Cheers Ginge. When I compiled the draw stats I didn't take any notice of running position in the field. When I gathered the data I was ignorant to running position so sat down with the Raceform annual and simply went from cover to cover looking at no. of runners and winning stall. I then divided them into low, med or high categories and never analysed things further. As you suggest, there are limits to this approach and with the hold up horses a wide draw may not necessarily inconvenience. In recent months running style has been something I have began to factor into my write ups, so when I do my next study into it it will be something I will take more notice of. Saying that, I still haven't found the time to upload the Wolver stats from 2007 yet!!!

[NMc106]

Re: Fintron's AW Thread Great night at Wolverhampton for you Fin, well done :nana:nana Especially the 20-50 where you had 1-2 from your two selections! Keep it up mate, this a top notch thread ;)