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Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow


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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow I thought Star De Mohaison and Tidal Bay are the two, who could be taken from the race today. The former looked like a winner, but didn't stay. Better ground and if something's not amiss should see him very close in the gold cup. The heavy ground found him out. And I really hope they go for the Ryanair with Tidal Bay. That's the race for him. Gold Cup next year.

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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow RSA - Killyglen @ 66/1 - Sky Sky were slow to react and I took a small nibble at the price. I think Howard Johnson has added another gem to his stable here. Impressive winner today conceding weight and has an outside chance in the RSA. Shrewd trainer, no surprise the horse is entered in the race, trust me!

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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Just had a few quid on Brave Inca for the Champion Hurdle' date= probably get laughed at but 67.0 on bfair is too big to miss imo. You never know, although BI is getting on a bit,still has plenty of miles left on the clock, lightly raced over the last couple of seasons aswell.
Brave Inca now 28 on bfair for the champion after winning the irish hurdle.;)
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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Champion Hurdle w/o Binocular - Celestial Halo @ 7/1 e/w Good bet this one. No need to be going for 12/1 and probably settling for a place. I don't know if something will beat Binocular on the day, but I fancy strongly the Nicholls runner to be thereabouts and on this market we win if he's 2nd and we get a small profit if he's in the top 4. Proven over the Cheltenham hill winning the Triumph, looks worth a punt. Some bookies go 5/1 on this market.

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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Arkle - I'm So Lucky @ 80 Betfair & 84 BetDaq Planet Of Sound won well and franked the form of Pipe's I'm So Lucky. He was entered for the VC Chase at Ascot this weekend, but the ground will be soft and they pulled him out. He's a 140 hurdler, who has won 2 chases very easily and lost by 7l conceding 10lbs to Planet Sound lto. Winning when Pipe was out of form, he could be a very good horse when the yard is firing. I had a bit of 80s for the Arkle.
Layed at 35 :dude I now have free bets on Araldur, I'm So Lucky, Poquelin for the Arkle. I still feel the 50/1 at VC for the Pipe horse is a good value and an outstanding e/w bet. If Planet Of Sound is 14/1 there's no way I'm So Lucky should be 50/1 losing by 7lgts conceding 10lbs. He is entered in a 2m handicap chase this weekend at Doncaster and if Andreas remains top weight he should go very close off 10st 10lbs.
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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow This is probably a daft bet but I've just had a bit more on Nine Stories for the Triumph hurdle at 430.0 (already had a couple of quid at 50/1). We saw it at Musselburgh at the weekend on the PL do and although it finished second to the fav (who is about 130.0 for the Triumph) I though he ran okay, seemed to jump okay and gave the winner plenty to think about even though he finished second. True, this is hardly a strong trial for the Triumph but wouldn't it be fitting if a horse won the race having passed infront of our very eyes at Muss. Owned by the Wylies and from a top jumps yard so I'll have a punt and hope he makes the race.:hope

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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow muirhead--e/way-generally 33-1 for the champion hurdle the jockey whowas in the saddle for his last run when second to brave inca in the irish champion hurdle over did the waitng tactics,the race was run in desperate conditions,but muirhead travelled like a dream as the field began its turn into the straight the jockey was pulling double while brave inca was being pushed along like a mule,if the jockey kicked on then the result would have been diffrent,he was fancied for the supreme novice hurdle last year,but he travelled from irelandthat time and didnt eat up and i think connections are sure not to makethem mistakes again muirheads stable mate jered seems better going right handed and lacks experience of cheltenham its true that binocular is the one to beat, osana ran a good race not so long ago but he is surely a sitting duck racing from the front as for crack away jack was over hyped in the autumn and may be better over futher

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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow I watched the race myself Welshman but what I took out of the race was that Muirhead simply isn't good enough. Looking a bit further back in the race he was himself given a bit of a push and a shove to get into contention. Sublimity was just behind him and made up similar ground without being asked as much. Unfortunately for Sublimity supporters he doesn't seem to truly stay 2 miles unless everything is in his favour and the combination of the ground and a strong gallop saw him stop like he hit a brick wall. Once Muirhead got there entering the straight his jockey looked confident and relaxed. He brought him into an excellent position to challenge at exactly the right time but Brave Inca proved way too strong for him. The problem with your theory is that to pass Brave Inca in the first place he has to use up precious energy by asking too much of the horse too early. Brave Inca isn't going to stop at that point but you can bet our life Muirhead would have by the time he got to the last. Go early hold them up and ask them to quicken to take their race the energy has to come from somewhere. Muirhead gave it what he had and wasn't up to it IMO. I'm with you on Binocular and can't see him losing but I disagree on Cack Away Jack. He's the type who will appreciate the strong gallop and big field. He can come with a long sweeping run like we saw him do in the Fred Winter and is perfectly capable of leaving the ascot form miles behind. Very nice horse and for me the main danger.

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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow i agree with what your saying rondetto but i think come march hopefully the ground will be riding better and that muirhead will improve for his come back race and then we will see a diffrent muirhead that said though i suppose brave inca will improve for his run to mate

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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow I doubt if the race will suit Brave Inca at Cheltenham as it will Muirhead but I think you are forgettng the latter put up his best perfomance on heavy ground last year when beating Cork All Star. I was wondering the other day why PN thinks he needs a front runner (Rippling Ring) for Celestial Halo. I'm sure Osana will ensure there is no hanging abou and CH will get all the lead he needs. Those two will present a big problem for Brave Inca. They are both much younger and both will be happy to battle it out from the 3rd last to the line. At his age he is bound to be the first to crack. A couple of years ago he came under pressure along long way from home and both he an Hardy Eustace were spent forces by the last hurdle which gifted Sublimity with a somewhat easy win. I just can't see him going with the younger Osana who showed he can battle back when he was headed by Katchit. One things for sure with Osana CH and BI up there the pace will be hectic. They may end up cutting eackh other's throats and find horses like Sublimity, Katchit, Muirhead, Jered, Crack Away Jack, Punjabi and Binocular fighting out the finish. I know if I was riding a front runner the thought of that lot coming at me from 3 out onwards would have me more tha a bit worried. With Jered, Katchit and Crack Away Jack much depends on how they turn up on the day. Muirhead, Punjabi and Binocular are less of a mystery. Sublimity will most likely crack as he pace will find him out but as for the rest who knows which will find most. Osana, if allowed to do things in his own time, will be hard to pass when he turns the tap on. David Pipe like his dad knows exactly what it takes and how to do it when it comes to winning a CH. I can see him being in the first 4 and with the Pipe magic I wouldn't try and talk anyone out of betting him. Punjabi has definately improved since last season but he still lacks that extra bit of something special it takes to win a CH. Too many people wrote Katchit off last season to their cost. He will turn up spot on if Alan King is Alan King. I expect he will go close again along with Osana. Jered is a bit of a mystery. There is no way of telling how good he is and there must be a question mark on whether JP will alow him to run. I'm sure his trainer will have sent a few begging letters already but until Frank Berry lifts the phone and tells him what's what he will be kept wondering like the rest of us. Binocular is what champions are made of. He jumps brilliantly with speed and no apparent effort. Has a high cruising speed and McCoy rates him as the best he's ever sat on. Many say the hill may find him out but that is only because as a younger and much weaker horse he failed to overhall Captain Cee Bee in the Supreme. JP and Nicky Hendeerson were under no illusions that a year would see massive improvent in Binocular. They immediately decided to send Captain Cee Bee fencing and aim Binocular at the Champion Hurdle. I'm sure the connections are a lot less worried about he trip at Cheltenham than some punters seem to be. I am firmly in their camp and can't see him being beaten. Celestial Halo has been beaten twice by Binocular and very easily at that. PN reckons he will come on from his Ascot run. He would certainly have needed it more than Binocular but Nicky Henderson is not known for having his horses overly ready prior to Cheltenham. I doubt if he was any straighter at Ascot than he was at Kempton last year. I can't see the result between those two changing Cheltenham hill or no Cheltenham Hill. Muirhead was all the rage last season for the Supreme but as is well known thing went terribly wrong. He could run a big race as like Sublimity he travels well in his races. So far this season he has flattered to deceive but that wasn't the case last season when winning 3 on the trot. If there is to be a surprise he looks the type who could spring one. He's been knocking on the door all season and his trainer is a very shrewd man. Crack Away Jack had an unusualy early start to the season for a Champion Hurdle contender with his 3 runs coming before Xmas. That concerned me a bit as he is said to be a very big horse with a lot of scope to improve. IMO His trainer made a wise decision to rest him and bring him back for the Champon Hurdle fresh. . They say horses for courses, This horse did it so easily in the Fred Winter that I find it hard to imagine him not being there at the finish. Cases can be made for many of the runners and mid season form rarely stands up. Despite what the betting says this is probably one of the best CH's in a very long time.

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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Grand National - Battlecry 1pt each way @ 50/1 Stan James Just had a scan through the weights for this which were released today and this one could be worth a punt. Has some decent chasing form over the last couple of years, including a 2nd to Big Bucks at Aintree in April and also behind Barbers Shop in a competitive race more recently.. Out of a Midlands National winner, stamina shouldnt be a problem and has won over 3m+ so that is a box ticked for the trends fans. From the Twiston-Davies stable, they tend to do well in this race although are out of form somewhat recently which has seen Battlecry's rating drop a bit - handy for this race as long as they hit some from come April.

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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Grand national weights came out today and as some might know it was at this time last year when I struck the winner at a huge price on the exchanges. To repeat this will be extremely tough but there are a couple that catch my eye and might turn out to be too big. Admittedly a couple of these are a bit hopeful. Now already for this race I have Roll Along at a 3 figure price on the exchanges and he remains in the picture and if kept fresh, preferably with decent ground I could see him relishing the stamina demands of the race. (Note I have put RA up on sports punter at its current bookies price which is 50/1) However there are a few others that catch my eye. Abbeybraney 40/1 stanjames 5 pts e.w Wylie paid an awful lot of money to get this horse who has still yet to win a chase, a statistic that would put a lot off him winning a race like the National although that does not mean that he cannot run well . Im not certain if they will go for the GN (they missed the WGN earlier in the year) but connections used to have Bewleys Berry who ran in the GN in recent years and this might just be his replacement. What appeals about him is that firstly he shapes as a real stayer, he has ran some top races over 3m in the last two seasons and often in greulling conditions. What also appeals is some of his form which suggest he might be decently handicapped on a mark of 145. He lost only a head in a grade 1 against Notre Pere of levels, a run that reads very well especially considering what NP has done since (160 now.) His run afterwards in a grade 1 over a slightly inadequate trip when third was also good, the likes of Big Zeb only just ahead. He then moved to Johnson's yard but none of his ability seems to have been lost judging by a fine second behind possible GC wildcard Barbers Shop and even ahead of another GN fancy of mine Roll Along, when receiving some weight. I can see even further improvement myself over the GN trip, he has got a nice weight and is almost certainly in if connections want to go that route and if they did I can see him much shorter than 40/1 on the day myself. Darkness 66/1 bluesq 2.5 pts e.w Not as confident on this one but a bit of a darkhorse. A couple of years ago he was one of the best novices around. He won a grade 1 and a grade 2 and was clearly very talented if not slightly one to have the odd reservation about and ocassionally making a few jumping errors. In the RSA (a very good GN trial) he stayed on reasoanbly noticeably to be third when made too many errors to be truly competitive. After that he has had lots of injury problems and had been off the track for a while. However he came back this season and ran top race fto this season after such a long lay off. Eventually he was third in a competitive race but he plugged on that day and the form of that race was good. Possol has run well since, Mon Mome clearly has since and Darkness gets a nice pull in the weights from that one, Rambling Minster was another one in midfield that day who has won since and Darkness gets a pull with that one too. Darkness didnt run as well in the WGN which is some concern but his first run back this season showed real promise for me and suggested he still has ability in him. The handicapper has given him a bit of a chance of 143 (he was 154 rated) and he might just be worth a small chance knowing that he will probably get in the race needing 13 to come out which normally would be fine. Irish Invader 100/1 bet365 5 places 1.5 pts e.w He hasnt proven he has the stamina requirements for this race yet but also he has seldom been tried at a huge trip that often. Once in the kerry national when he was tried at an increased trip to normal he fell when still not out of that race at all and that encorages stamina wise. Indeed looking at his pedigree he could get the trip, its not impossible, his half brother has won over 3m and his sire has produced some stayers in the past and he did win over 3m in his novice hurdles days so whilst the GN would be a gamble it maybe worth a try. Mostly he has been running over trips like 2m and slightly more than that but nothing like the marathon GN trip. However in the past horses have been campaigned over shorter distances and gone into the GN with distance question marks before running fine races, KJC last year would be a recent example. Irish Invaders form has been good of late, he has won his last two races and he seems on an upward curve as confirmed by his graded win lto. The trip has to be a question mark here but at 100/1 Im prepared to have a small risk

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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Exotic Dancer pulled out of the Hennessy Gold Cup this weekend, so he could really be going for the National. If I wasn't concerned with his jumping I would have had a bit of the 80s on offer at Betfair. But he may struggle at the big Aintree fences. I hope he runs though. Most of my horses are just under the 11st and I don't want them to go any higher :hope

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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Last 10 winners all share the following trends 8 to 12 years old rating above 135 on the day weight 11 stone 5lb or under won over at least 3 miles run in at least 10 chases won a chase worth at least £17,000 5 of the last 6 winners ran over hurdles in the seaosn they won the National 3 for me (write ups to follow): KILBEGGAN BLADE 40/1 Bluesq (36.0 on betfair) D'ARGENT 200.0 Betfair STAN 160.0 Betfair (50's with bookies)

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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

I think with Stan it is a case of statistics being wrong. He may have won at 3m but has improved dropped back to distances between 2m and 2m5f. Ginge
true ginge & i read today that its not a certain target at this stage. Still big odds for a small bet TBH
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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow My selection for the Grand National would be Hot Weld: he is certainly being aimed towards the National but has yet to have a run and hasn't ran in nearly 2 years but I am still hopeful he will make it. Certainly has the pace and stamina to win this though the ground is crucial, If the ground is good he has a great chance, but it really must be good ground to see the best of him. Another thing related to the GN is Big Fella Thanks, he has now been backed into favouritism and I just can't see Nicholls and Findlay running him in this this season and I really fancy him for the National Hunt Novices Chase this year. He started the season poorly but is starting to get going and a great run lto see's him in fine fettle. Hot Weld - Grand National @ 37.00 Win & 33/1 EW Big Fella Thanks - National Hunt Novices Chase @ 13.00 Win

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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow I used the following trends last year and got the winner amongst 8 final picks from a starting list of 115. I don't want to back that many this year though. - Aged 8-12 - Handicap Rating above 135 on the day - Carried 11st 5lb or under in weight - Previously won over at least 3 miles - Run in at least 10 chases - Won a chase worth at least £17,000 - Did not win or place the previous year’s National - Not French bred - Had a prep run within 42 days - Recorded a placed finish during the current season - Contested a previous National, whether it be in England (Aintree), Ireland - (Fairyhouse), Scotland (Ayr) or Wales (Chepstow). The one that I like the look of is Cornish Sett. Reminds me of 2007 winner Silver Birch in that he's had problems but Nicholls said recently he's improved for a breating operation and he's in great form of late, finishing second in the Welsh national (proves he stays) to add to his win in the listed Badger Ales Trophy at Winc. Versatilie with regards to ground so will go on anything except heavy come April, and if usual jockey Schofield rides can have the benefit of a 5 lb claim. Seems to have jumped well of late and finished the race last year - more than some. Number 49 on list of runners, so quite possible he will make the final cut. I'm hoping for a decent run at Haydock at the weekend to keep up the momentum and taken a chance on him for Aintree at 40's. 50/1 is avail with VC bet but I wanted the added insurance of EW on five places with Bet 365.

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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

No claims in the National' date=' mate. Just to let you know :ok[/quote'] Whoops, my mistake. My bet is placed now anyway and I still think it could go well regardless. If it wins on Sat it is still likely to carry one of the bottom weights isnt it?
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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Not a trends punter personally. I think last year's 2nd King Johns Castle has a great chance. On 10st 10lbs currently. Has been raised 11lbs for last year's 2nd, but very much unexposed and the fact he's been aimed at the race after reports suggested he is out for the season, makes me think this can be his year. The top weight should be a good horse this year and KJC would remain on a decent racing weight. Last year the reports were that McCoy will ride him, but he chose Butlers Cabin in the end. I won't mind Paul Carberry again though. Took the 50/1 when trainer said horse is back in training and his setback is well over. I see he is 33/1 only at one bookie now and 25/1,20/1 elsewhere. If he performs well this weekend at Leopardstown, he could be far lower price. For me he's still very much unexposed and is a typical grand national horse. Won't be surprised if McCoy choses him this term :ok

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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Not a trends punter personally. I think last year's 2nd King Johns Castle has a great chance. On 10st 10lbs currently. Has been raised 11lbs for last year's 2nd' date=' but very much unexposed and the fact he's been aimed at the race after reports suggested he is out for the season, makes me think this can be his year. The top weight should be a good horse this year and KJC would remain on a decent racing weight. Last year the reports were that McCoy will ride him, but he chose Butlers Cabin in the end. I won't mind Paul Carberry again though. Took the 50/1 when trainer said horse is back in training and his setback is well over. I see he is 33/1 only at one bookie now and 25/1,20/1 elsewhere. If he performs well this weekend at Leopardstown, he could be far lower price. For me he's still very much unexposed and is a typical grand national horse. Won't be surprised if McCoy choses him this term :ok[/quote'] Im already on him @ 25's mate. As for McCoy, won't he be likely to be riding Can't Buy Time?
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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Grand National - Character Building ew @ 25/1 bluesq An ultra consistent stayer, who hasnt won as much as he should but has some good form in the book in long distance chases, including in the 2007 Cheltenham Festival when he lugged 12 stone round to be beaten only 3/4 lengths behind Butlers Cabin. Beaten 19 lengths in the Hennessy behind Denman was a good effort too before injury scuppered his chances of competing in the National last year. His efforts this season have been pleasing, particularly when 3rd beaten 3 lengths behind Rambling Minster and Alexanderthegreat at Cheltenham on his penultimate start with the front 3 pulling clear. His last race was over an inadequate distance over hurdles and he ran well enough with the main aim being to preserve his chase rating for this race. The result being he has been allocated a decent weight of 10 stone 1lb, which even allowing for the inevitable few pounds rise between now and the day of the race leaves him on a handy mark. He runs on Saturday at Haydock in the Bluesquare Gold Cup so i'd be looking for a decent run there. He skips Cheltenham to go straight to Aintree.

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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Dunno who matched my bet on Petit Robin on the w/o Master Minded market, but I thank him for that. 9/1 :loon Looks massive compared to the 4/1 at the bookies. The horse is generally 12,14/1 on the original market, so quite a nice bet there. I fancy him a lot to finish 2nd. Would have been major contender to win the race if MM wasn't around.

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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Royal & SunAlliance Chase Wednesday, 11 March 2009 2:40 Carruthers 9-2 JointFavorite for the Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 (Registered as The Spa Novices´ Hurdle) last year. Finished 11 of 18 by 57 lengths. He defeated the winner by 13 lengths two months earlier. Racing Post Analysis of the race said: "..did not get much peace in front and was soon done with when taken on running down to the penultimate flight." What A Friend is 8-1 for the RSA whom Carruthers lost to by 2L on his reappearance/chase debut last October. He defeated What A Fried by a length on his hurdle debut in Nov07. Current favorite for the race is 6-1 (Betfred) Breedzbreeze. I think he's still under the radar because he's not found a race to go into for a while. Overall he's a useful sort who should not be as big as 33-1. There is also the possibility he'd be able to be layed at a lower price after today's race at Fakenham (1:50). 1pt ew @ 33-1 Sportingbet
Carruthers ran and jumped his rivals ragged in the Sodexo Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot. Mark Bradstock's charge, owned among others by Lord Oaksey, produced an exhibition round of fencing and had Breedsbreeze comfortably beaten when that rival fell at the last. This left the weary Ballyfitz to claim the forecast spot, a distance behind the runaway winner. "I haven't got many good horses to ride but I feel this one is very good," winning jockey Mattie Batcherlor told BBC 1. "The ground is hard work out there but he made it look easy." Boylesports were very taken by the winning performance and make Carruthers their 5/1 favourite (from 16/1) for the RSA Chase at Cheltenham. Sky Bet halved Carruthers in place to 8/1 and eased Breedsbreeze out to 20/1 (from 12s) for the Cheltenham feature. :D
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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

The next one is Miko De Beauchene at 160. He should get an entry too and he must have a good chance. Hasn't finished a race recently with two unlucky errors' date= where he unseated his rider. He is a good jumper though. This could play a part in the tough GN. He will be fresh and should also be far shorter in the market when the weights are announced.
If Andrerw Thornton doesn't ride him in the Grand National, then I have a huge chance of landing this bet. Never rides a strong finish and just can't hold a horse through the race.
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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow i've made the prediction that Rambling Minster will start favourite on the day at Aintree. Take a look at his race from Dec 2007 at Haydock. This was a big pointer towards last years National with Cloudy Lane winning, Comply or Die 2nd and High Chimes 3rd - Rambling Minster finished 4th that day. Cloudy Lane went on to win 2 more races and start joint favourite for the 2008 National, but could only finish 6th. Comply or Die went on to win the Eider Chase and subsequently also started joint favourite for the National - he of course won the race. High Chimes went on to win at the Cheltenham Festival so the form of that Haydock race looks rock solid, especially when you consider that Rambling Minster made a mistake 3 out that saw him land on his nose which would have put him a lot closer than the 12 lengths he was beaten by. This year has seen him win his last 2 races - both quality staying events which puts him spot on for Aintree. Ive been through the historical trends for the race - which are pretty powerful, and he meets them all. I'm a bit concious that we are 6 weeks before the race and i'm already getting overly involved in the race but Rambling Minster is a confirmed participant, all being well and I cant see him being 20/1 on the day at all. Grand National: Rambling Minster @ 20/1 bet365

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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow had a bit left over in my account, and had a couple of ante-post bets for the national, Silver Birch @ 40/1 (4places @ 1/4 odds) Golden Flight @ 50/1 (4places @ 1/4 odds) Silver Birch has been their and done it, Gordon Elliott has nursed the horse back to fitness, with aintree, the second one is a stable whisper from the Henderson yard, however a french bred horse has never won the national, however the horse has plenty of stamina, so im told.

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Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Golden Flight @ 50/1 (4places @ 1/4 odds)
That's an interesting runner. He was winning grade 1s and 2s 3 years ago, but after 2 year absense has only placed in listed and grade chase, so probably lost a bit of his ability. If Henderson can get him ready though, then we'll be looking at a 160 contender running off 143. Stable's other runners seem to be weaker in the market.
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