Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

[Spooner]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Henrietta Knight is warming to the idea of letting Calgary Bay take his chance in the Irish Independent Arkle Chase after his New Year's Day success at Cheltenham. The trainer was concerned about dropping the six-year-old back to two miles after he opened his account over fences with a fine display in the Dipper Novices' Chase' date= but connections are now siding with the minimum-distance contest in favour of the RSA Chase or the Jewson Handicap. Happy for you Spooner :ok

Thanks for the news Mileni. :ok

[Spooner]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Will slowly add more ante-post selections over the next week or so. Champion Hurdle Binocular @ 11/8 Corals Short odds I know for an ante post bet but its hard to see what can beat Binocular and he should be odds on come the day of the race, Defeated some of the main contenders for the Champion Hurdle last time out in the boylesports international. He won so easily and you only feel he will improve with ever run, Henderson's horses are on top form and you can see the stable having a good festival. Take Binocular out of the race though and you have such an open Champion Hurdle. Ballymore Properties Novices Mikael D'Haguenet @ 8/1 Corals Pandorama was favourite for this race back in November but Mikael D'Haguenet beat him with some ease last month at Navan, Won easily again today at Naas and looks a very good prospect, I would rate Diamond Harry main danger to this horse, He also looks a very good prospect and I can see these two going head to head for this race.

[Spooner]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Royal and SunAlliance Chase Aran Concerto @ 12/1 Corals Very highly thought of by Noel Meade and was favourite to take the Ballymore Novices back in 07, He didn't run as expected and wasn't seen on the track last season. Only ran the once over fences so far but he did look quite impressive at Navan back in November, Looks like this could be a cracking race this year and hopefully Aran Concerto can show everyone how good he is.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Royal and SunAlliance Chase Aran Concerto @ 12/1 Corals Very highly thought of by Noel Meade and was favourite to take the Ballymore Novices back in 07, He didn't run as expected and wasn't seen on the track last season. Only ran the once over fences so far but he did look quite impressive at Navan back in November, Looks like this could be a cracking race this year and hopefully Aran Concerto can show everyone how good he is.

Hope they don't decide to go for the Arkle. I have him at 25/1 before his Navan win. Lots of bookies have him at 16s for the Arkle though. I think he was entered for a 2m event before a minor setback.

[Spooner]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Hope they don't decide to go for the Arkle. I have him at 25/1 before his Navan win. Lots of bookies have him at 16s for the Arkle though. I think he was entered for a 2m event before a minor setback.

25/1 is indeed a very nice price. Yeah he may go to the Arkle but I always look at befairs prices as an indication to what race he is going for, He is 36/1 on there for the arkle and 13/1 for the RSA. RSA looks more likely. :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Yes mate, but couple of weeks ago he wasn't even in the market for the Arkle.

[Spooner]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Yes mate' date=' but couple of weeks ago he wasn't even in the market for the Arkle.[/quote']Ah right. Bit of news on him if you haven't seen it. Noel Meade reports Aran Concerto to be nearing a return to the racecourse as he recovers from a slight setback. The eight-year-old has always been held in the highest regard by his County Meath handler and won three of his five hurdling starts, including in Grade One company. After 20 months on the sidelines with injury, the son of Zaffaran appeared to be as good as ever when making a winning chasing debut at Navan in November and Meade is preparing to unleash him once again. "Aran Concerto had a setback just before we were going to run him in the Drinmore at Fairyhouse so that has held him up a little bit," said Meade. "He will be back though and all being well he will be out somewhere towards the end of this month. "I don't really have a particular race in mind for him at the moment but we will just see how we go."

[Aykay1]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Ballymore Properties Hurdle - Cockney Trucker 2.5 pts ew @ 25/1 >paddypower <?xml:namespace prefix = o />

Has run a good race behind leading contender for the Supreme Novices, Dee Ee Williams in a race that has worked out really well before going 2 better at Newbury next time. He finished both of those races strongly and everything about his running style suggests he is screaming out to be stepped up in trip. those runs were on testing tracks, Newbury and <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Cheltenham so its form on the festival course is ok. In the Triumph last year, he got outpaced but stayed on really well to finish 8^th and will expected to improve for a step up in distance. The Ballymore looks the most likely race for him. He has only run over 2m or 2m 1f up till now so I’d expect him to be given a run over 2m4f before going to Cheltenham.

.

[Tipster5000]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Going back to Denman..........Do you think its a good idea for a horse who was brought back from the dead after his Heart problems to run over 4 miles + over 40 fences carrying 11-10, I think he needs a few races first starting at 3m and a couple at 3m5f first before April, I know hes going for the AON i think at Newbury which im hoping to attend but im just not sure on the National for him, What do you guys think?

[Aykay1]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow If health is in doubt they simply won't run him. it is too much of a risk with a horse as valuable as that. I can't see him winning the National in any case, regardless of how many lb's he is well in. If he goes off 4/1 ish on the day he is lay of the year for me. (not a very bold statement on 4 january but you get my drift ;))

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow From my jumps thread: one bet i have just struck is Cheltenham March 13th Albert Bartlett Novices hurdle The Nightingale @ 55.0 & 60.0 Cheltenham March 11th Ballymore Properties Hurdle The Nightingale @ 46.0 Horses form to date 1-2-f-1 It finished 2nd 8L behind Mad max (one of Henderson's horses) last season at Newbury in an NHF race which has produced 4 winners from 9 horses. It would have won 1st time up this season at Exeter but spooked & jumped the road slipping up after the last fence with the race at its mercy & the race was waon by Shalone (King) who has since beaten tataniano which hacked up at the weekend. The Nightingale won easily on last start heavily odds on over 2m 3f at taunton.

[JackJarvis]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow I admit to liking that bet myself Bowles, good luck. ;)

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

I admit to liking that bet myself Bowles' date=' good luck. ;)[/quote'] cheers Jack, i didnt mention the horse is trained by Paul Nicholls & owned by Graham Roach so i am pretty sure they will go to the festival with it. Another plus is that the horse is a french bred which also suits Cheltenham.

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Cheltenham March 10th - Champion Hurdle If the ground comes up on the good side, there are 2 potential challengers now to Binocular who both have course form in Snap tie & Crack away jack. Snap Tie gave binocular 8lb last season in the supreme nov hurdle & was beaten 4.5L when they finished 2nd & 3rd behind Captain Cee bee. Snap Tie's chances were not helped last year by the rain soddened ground last year & also was hampered on the final turn before running on for 3rd. On faster ground, i feel Snap Tie would get closer to Binocular than any other horse. Snap Tie @ 26.0 Crackawayjack won the Fred winter last festival & i would ignore its 2 runs this season at Ascot. It bolted in at Chepstow & it will be a different horse come the festival. Crackawayjack @ 14.5 PS, my bet on Sizing Europe looks up the swanny now after that last performance however good ground will also help that animal in what is going to be a great race.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Very interesting with the GN market. Denman is getting more and more money and is now 7/1 almost everywhere. One other horse which I'm a big fan of Star De Mohaison was also heavily backed on the exchanges and is 21 at Betdaq and 27 at Betfair. He could be very interesting if entered, because he ran a good 2nd off top weight rated 155 and showed he's back to his best (Paul Nicholls said he will need this run to be 100% ready, so there is more to come). His rating will be in the 160s (165 max) now. He probably won't run again before the weights are announced and if he remains in those 160s an eventual win (why not Gold Cup) will make him a favorite getting 15lbs. I think he's a Gold Cup horse and will be very very close to Kauto Star and Denman. That's just pure speculation, but he's a dark horse if they really want him in the Grand National and running him after the weights are announced will be an indication. He was going for the AON Chase, but is now out of the race. Maybe the owner will give Exotic Dancer his last chance for Gold Cup and use the low rating of Star De Mohaison for the GN. He will have a really good chance to win it of 160s with Denman in the race this year rather than Exotic Dancer off 174. But then again, if Star De Mohaison is that good I think he is, then he has a really good chance to win the Gold Cup, because Exotic Dancer will probably fail again. Tricky, eh? :lol

[JackJarvis]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Not big for an antepost price but I can only see one winner of the World Hurdle. It is not Punchestowns, I honestly believe KASHBAH BLISS just needs to turn up to win this. A typical progressive staying hurdler from Francois Doumens yard, he has yet to run this season and is obviously been trained to peak for this race. He actually ran 4th in the Group 1 Cadran at the Arc meeting and that is top top class form. Punchestowns has been impressive this season but I just get the feeling this French horse could be head and shoulders above and he probably would have won it last year were it not for his slightly inexperienced jockey (around Chelt). Can get 10/3 and I reckon that is stonking value. I would have him 6/4 fav.

[JackJarvis]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Also, in the Triumph I cannot look beyond STARLUCK. This horse has proved a revelation since switching from the flat and he has hosed up in his 3 hurdling starts so far. He hurdles very fluently and his high cruising speed will pitch him in good stead come March. I reckon Zaynar is favourite on reputation alone and were this horse trained by Nicholls or Henderson, he would be 5/2 favourite. At 7/1 this is a superb each way bet and I may well back him now as he has to go off shorter on the day if his performances so far are anything to go by.

[mowgli77]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Not big for an antepost price but I can only see one winner of the World Hurdle. It is not Punchestowns, I honestly believe KASHBAH BLISS just needs to turn up to win this. A typical progressive staying hurdler from Francois Doumens yard, he has yet to run this season and is obviously been trained to peak for this race. He actually ran 4th in the Group 1 Cadran at the Arc meeting and that is top top class form. Punchestowns has been impressive this season but I just get the feeling this French horse could be head and shoulders above and he probably would have won it last year were it not for his slightly inexperienced jockey (around Chelt). Can get 10/3 and I reckon that is stonking value. I would have him 6/4 fav.

Agree with that mate, I was going to take 3's with bet365 yesterday, still considering. I watched last years World Hurdle again and Kasbah Bliss and Inglis Drever pulled clear of the field. Blazing Bailey is overrated, wouldn't touch that and I think Kasbah Bliss will be spot on come March.

[JackJarvis]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Yep, and we know Doumen knows what it takes to win this having produced the greatest of all in Baracouda to win it twice. Although Punchestowns won a good Long Walk last time I still feel he has to step up again to match Kasbah Bliss. I would just like to know who will be on board come March, I hope its not that Pieux fella again as no disrespect to him he doesn't exactly suit Cheltenham well. There is bound to be one big jockey going spare and Doumen should snap em up.

[Boulder5111]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Roll Along 110 2.5 pts to win the grand national and 22 2.5 pts to place betf. This race was so good to me when picking the winner at 150 on the exchanges and going for a similar type of bet here. Now as always with an ante post selection' date=' its questionable if it runs but if it does, then Roll Along could make a mokery of a huge price 3 digit price here. There is actually even more on offer on the exchanges waiting to be matched and 33/1 with conventional bookies. Roll Along is a tremendously progressive young second season chaser and strikes me as a sort who could run well in the race. Certainly he strikes as an out and out stayer and he showed that last year in the classy RSA behind Albertas Run to make rapid late ground to be second. That race has a good record for producing national winners and added to it last year with Comply or Die. To stay on in top grade 1 quality like that shows an abundance of stamina. Roll Along produced a fine run fto this season to beat the talented Air Force One, once again thriving off a strong pace to pounce late on. That added to a tremendous record fto so if connections did leave him fresh for the race, that would be further interestig. After his asc. win he ran creditibly in a 5 runner race behind barbers shop, staying up late on once again and suggesting once again he would thrive with a marathon trip, the in out nature of that race probably didnt suit. Currently off 157, that seems at times a stiff mark but given he has achieved that mark without getting a real marathon trip yet, its very possible he could improve further for a marathon trip like the GN. Also he is just a second season chaser so further improvement cannot be ruled out. Plus the possible presence of Denman would mean horses in late 150s+ could ened up with an unusual lovely racing weight. Even if Denman doesnt run, Exotic Dancer has been mooted and that would put a lot of horses hoping to squeeze into the GN at the bottom such as Character Building and Butlers Cabin facing a difficult task some way out of the handicap. Whether connections of Roll Along go for the GN this year is open to question but they already know what its like to win it through the Corbiere 1983 win and they may get a lovely racing weight for an improving horse, who seems set to improve further when granted with a marathon trip.[/quote'] You make a very convincing case for this one Woody and after last years exploits where you tipped the winner at a massive price, that would be one hell of a double to land ! :ok Good luck I'll certainly be having a couple of quid on it but unfortunately for me, I'd just been through my Ante Post fancies and so I'll stick with them. Funnily enough, I'd picked out Character Building for the National so I'm hoping it does have the class to get in despite your reservations. I've picked out these on grounds of form/price and stuck them in a e/w Lucky 15, hoping to land a nice double or better. Character Building (National) 20/1 Mad Max (Supreme Novices) 14/1 Araldur (Arkle) 16/1 Walkon (Triumph) 8/1

[Boulder5111]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Further to my previous post. I forgot to mention the main point I wanted to make regarding Roll Along :lol It's the progeny of Montelimar (like Hedgehunter and Montys Pass). Hedgehunter would be just about the most successful horse in the race in recent times and Montys Pass won well. So that would be a definite tick in the 'breeding' box also. Looking at the previous form, it looks like it needs to jump better, but that's probably factored into the price.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Apparently this one is with Pipe now :loon He doesn't know where he'll go and what distance to aim him at' date=' but he can definitely be one to follow this season. His winning in france is upto 2m6f on heavy ground, so he could be a stayer. Had a nibble at 130s for the gold cup :ok[/quote'] Or Noir De Somoza is the horse I was talking about here. He is entered for the 2m chase at Ascot against Master Minded and this saw him get prices for the Ryanair and the Champion Chase at different bookies, but is now removed from those markets and has an official entry for the Gold Cup (as previously expected). The 2m uk debut is just for fitness. He was running over 2m6f on heavy ground, so I think the Gold Cup is a definite for him. 33s at the bookies and 100s at betfair. Was around 200 when they entered him for the Ascot 2 mile chase, but after the GC list was announced the money which was layed at 200s was canceled straight away.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

If health is in doubt they simply won't run him. it is too much of a risk with a horse as valuable as that. I can't see him winning the National in any case' date=' regardless of how many lb's he is well in. If he goes off 4/1 ish on the day he is lay of the year for me. (not a very bold statement on 4 january but you get my drift ;))[/quote'] I'm not sure, AK. He'll probably run off a mark in the low 170s and will carry 11st10lbs, the top weight will be 2lbs lower for the first time. If he's ok he'll be a worthy fav. He will have only AON and Gold Cup and will be fresh. Maybe if the price is 3/1, 4/1 he'll be a really good lay, yes. But I'm on a nice antepost price and I won't be laying anything of it :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Or Noir De Somoza is the horse I was talking about here. He is entered for the 2m chase at Ascot against Master Minded and this saw him get prices for the Ryanair and the Champion Chase at different bookies' date=' but is now removed from those markets and has an official entry for the Gold Cup (as previously expected). The 2m uk debut is just for fitness. He was running over 2m6f on heavy ground, so I think the Gold Cup is a definite for him. 33s at the bookies and 100s at betfair. Was around 200 when they entered him for the Ascot 2 mile chase, but after the GC list was announced the money which was layed at 200s was canceled straight away.[/quote'] Actually I'm not sure the entries for the Ryanair and Champion Chase are announced yet, so let's not get too excited :lol

[Mr Bubbles]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Or Noir De Somoza is the horse I was talking about here. He is entered for the 2m chase at Ascot against Master Minded and this saw him get prices for the Ryanair and the Champion Chase at different bookies' date=' but is now removed from those markets and has an official entry for the Gold Cup (as previously expected). The 2m uk debut is just for fitness. He was running over 2m6f on heavy ground, so I think the Gold Cup is a definite for him. 33s at the bookies and 100s at betfair. Was around 200 when they entered him for the Ascot 2 mile chase, but after the GC list was announced the money which was layed at 200s was canceled straight away.[/quote'] If anyone is looking for a little each way punt on Or Noir De Somoza it is 100/1 at hills whilst only 25/1 at coral.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

If anyone is looking for a little each way punt on Or Noir De Somoza it is 100/1 at hills whilst only 25/1 at coral.

Cut to 25s at William Hill as well. They entered him in Champion Chase and Ryanair. Pipe said they are giving him 2m run for fitness and to see how it will go, but I remember I read an interview with the owner and he fancied the gold cup a lot. The horse record is really impressive. If they go for gold cup I think this horse can surprise the big guns. No triple figures available anymore. Best price is 60s at Betfair.

[mowgli77]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Cut to 25s at William Hill as well. They entered him in Champion Chase and Ryanair. Pipe said they are giving him 2m run for fitness and to see how it will go' date=' but I remember I read an interview with the owner and he fancied the gold cup a lot. The horse record is really impressive. If they go for gold cup I think this horse can surprise the big guns. No triple figures available anymore. Best price is 60s at Betfair.[/quote'] There is a write up for the horse in the Weekender and they seem to fancy it for the GC. Plenty of ante post support for Kalahari King for the Arkle too, i'm going to be backing that one and will be doing Arkle preview very soon.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

There is a write up for the horse in the Weekender and they seem to fancy it for the GC. Plenty of ante post support for Kalahari King for the Arkle too' date=' i'm going to be backing that one and will be doing Arkle preview very soon.[/quote'] Kalahari King might be my bet on the day. Still considering an antepost bet. Happy that Alardur shortened to 18s. King said he needs further than 2m, but to win the Arkle that's exactly what's required. Don't think Free World will be suited by Cheltenham. Calgary Bay will find it too short. Tatenen received 10lbs and didn't win lto. This leaves me with my antepost Alardur and Kalahari King. Song Of Songs for JP McManus could be the surprise package. Yet to tackle a fence, but is fancied.

[mowgli77]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Kalahari King might be my bet on the day. Still considering an antepost bet. Happy that Alardur shortened to 18s. King said he needs further than 2m' date=' but to win the Arkle that's exactly what's required. Don't think Free World will be suited by Cheltenham. Calgary Bay will find it too short. Tatenen received 10lbs and didn't win lto. This leaves me with my antepost Alardur and Kalahari King. Song Of Songs for JP McManus could be the surprise package. Yet to tackle a fence, but is fancied.[/quote'] The point made by many tipsters is that both My Way De Solzen and Tidal Bay stepped back down in trip and won the Arkle and they feel Calgary Bay can do the same. They don't fancy Tatenen after it's last run and getting weight like you say.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

The point made by many tipsters is that both My Way De Solzen and Tidal Bay stepped back down in trip and won the Arkle and they feel Calgary Bay can do the same. They don't fancy Tatenen after it's last run and getting weight like you say.

Yes, but I think Calgary Bay is Sun Alliance horse, not an Arkle horse. I prefer Alan King and Alardur :ok