Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Can somebody explain to me why Crack Away Jack is 8/1 from 6/1 when running a fantastic race against some tough opposition that is older than him and over a trip that is a bit too far. Elusive Dream, Chomba Womba and Franchoek are all suited by the trip, while CAJ is a genuine 2 miler. And he could have easily won the race if there was no mistake at the 2nd last. At the same time Binocular beats absolutely nothing and is cut to 4/1. I'd rather have 8/1 on Crack Away Jack to be honest. Not that I'll take it, but sometimes bookies act very strange imo.

[mowgli77]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow I noticed Star De Mohaison turned out today over hurdles, am I right in thinking if a horse wins over hurdles it won't affect its chase rating? I never expected it to win today, Nicholls stated it would need the run and I'm glad it got round ok. I'm interested in this horse when it goes over jumps again rather than hurdles and if you took that bet Bowlesy for the Hennessy it could be looking good. I'm liking my 95's antepost for the Gold Cup too. I just hope he decides to run it in both these races. :hope

[Aykay1]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Star De Mohaison, who completed the Cheltenham Aintree novice chase double in 2006, ran as if he was in need of the outing, as his trainer had predicted. He could only have just the one outing last term but only seven he still has time on his side.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Can somebody explain to me why Crack Away Jack is 8/1 from 6/1 when running a fantastic race against some tough opposition that is older than him and over a trip that is a bit too far. Elusive Dream' date=' Chomba Womba and Franchoek are all suited by the trip, while CAJ is a genuine 2 miler. And he could have easily won the race if there was no mistake at the 2nd last. At the same time Binocular beats absolutely nothing and is cut to 4/1. I'd rather have 8/1 on Crack Away Jack to be honest. Not that I'll take it, but sometimes bookies act very strange imo.[/quote'] "He could easily have won the race if there was no mistake at the 2nd last". That's the point I think. there was a glaring error, and the same level of error would bring him down at Cheltenham, whereas although Binocular beat nothing, he travelled supremeley well and his hurdling was on the whole imperious.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow The Market Man was impressive today. One of the best jumpers I've seen. And I must say Barry Geraghty is a joy to watch. Hope the horse is well, because Nicky Henderson said he's a delicate sort. Would love to see him at Cheltenham.

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Its time for my 1st ante post bet for Cheltenham as some of these run today Gold Cup - Big Bucks 25/1 World Hurdle - Pettifour 16/1 Champion Hurdle - Katchit 10/1 Arkle - Free World 14/1 EW lucky 15 backed on these 4.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Pettifour at 16/1 for me as well. Saw betfair has it single figures. Could be a shrewd price after tofay's race :ok

[fintron]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Horse Racing
Event	Triumph Hurdle 2009
Selection	Simarian
Strength	2/10
Date	13/03/2009
Bookmaker/Price	>Bet365 @ 21.00 (Back)
Reasoning	I backed this fellow when I was at the Paddypower Open meeting in November and he routed the field with a 7 length victory over Paul Nicholls' fancied runner, R De Rien Sivola, in a £17k Grade 2 novices hurdle. This race has proven a key trial for the Trimph hurdle in recent years so I think SIMARIAN is worth a little ante-post bet at at the prices available. Course form is important at Cheltenham because of the steep climb up to the finish but Evan Williams' horse has now won on both visits here and seems to relish the configuration. Both of those wins have come over 17f - the same distance as the Triumph Hurdle, so I'm willing to take a little chance on him.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Was it just me impressed with the way Araldur won yesterday? There aren't many King 2 milers and I won't be surprised if this one turns out to be a decent horse. Taken from France just like Voy Por Ustedes ;) I did a bit of research on yesterday's race. Here's what I have .. Voy Por Ustedes 2005 winner - 3m 58.10s on good (weight 10-10) Jack The Giant 2006 winner - 4m 1.40s on good (weight 11-1) Marodima 2007 winner - 3m 53.90s on good (weight 10-10) Araldur 2008 winner- 3m 59.50s on soft!! (weight 11-4!!!!) That time off that weight and on soft ground reads very well to me, especially the way he had to dictate the pace and be infront most of the time. Voy Por went on to win the Arkle that year. I know improvement is needed to be an Arkle prospect, but I can't see any other King 2 milers to be honest. Any thoughts?

Let's see if this one is a real Arkle prospect. Declared for the Grade 2 Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown this weekend. I took a bit of 60 and 65 at Betfair after his last win. There has been some money available at 100 in the last weeks, but now somebody took them. Still some of 60 available and 33/1 at Stan James if you want to play e/w. I just think this is Alan King's Arkle horse and contesting such race should mean he's a nice sort. Hoping for a good run against some top horses - I'msingingtheblues, Chrysander, Deep Purple and Astarador.

[NMc106]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Not really got into Ante-Post betting yet and because I am new to horse racing im not sure how each race is run and what to look for in a horse for each race. I quite fancy Conflictofinterest for the Supreme Novices though and he will probably be aimed towards that race. Never ran particularly well lto but could come on for the run. 25/1 currently kicking about.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

I noticed Star De Mohaison turned out today over hurdles' date=' am I right in thinking if a horse wins over hurdles it won't affect its chase rating? I never expected it to win today, Nicholls stated it would need the run and I'm glad it got round ok. I'm interested in this horse when it goes over jumps again rather than hurdles and if you took that bet Bowlesy for the Hennessy it could be looking good. I'm liking my 95's antepost for the Gold Cup too. I just hope he decides to run it in both these races. :hope[/quote'] Shrewd. Ran a grate race and Paul Nicholls also said he'll need this run. Should come even better next time.

[fintron]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow great call with Star de Mohaison Phil, a best priced 33/1 with the bookies now!! Down to 16's with Blue Sq.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Champion Hurdle 2009
Selection	Katchit
Strength	3/10
Date	10/03/2009
Bookmaker/Price	VCBet @ 11.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Katchit runs today up against Binocular and Crack Away Jack so if he manages to come out on top I expect that price to be snapped up very quickly. Alan King's horse has a remarkable record at Cheltenham, with six wins from seven runs, and some of those have been top class races too, such as the 2007 Triumph Hurdle and the 2008 Champion hurdle. He won'd mind the heavy going that is forecast for today's race and if he handles conditions and wins there could be the opportunity to lay off if the price shortens.

[mowgli77]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Absolutely thrilled with the run from Star De Mohaison and was waiting for it to go back chasing. It would be the highlight of the season for me if it won the Gold Cup, it's just one of those horses I rate really highly and would love to see it win a big race. I think a few of us on here are on ante post (Me, Mileni, AK1979, Fintron ???) and my £15 at 95.0 is looking sweet now. I suppose if it wins a Gold Cup trial and becomes a single figure price I should lay some of the bet off. With doubts about Denman and Kauto this could be the Nichollks horse that takes the top prize come March and he always said it was a Gold Cup horse even if it's a year later than expected due to injuries. :hope

[alexmac]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Mowgli, Dave Nevison talks up SDM's chances of winning the big one in this weeks Racing and Football Outlook...

'the 33/1 looks too big, that opinion is shared by one or two others I know, so that price will not last'.

Great shout.

[alexmac]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow My first ante-post bets of the season: HEBRIDEAN in the Triumph - 16/1. As yet unseen over hurdles, but this high class recruit to the Nicholls yard could be very decent. Clearly a very talented horse on the flat, he will be well schooled at Ditcheat, and 16/1 could prove to be a huge price come March. He makes his seasonal bow tomorrow at Newbury, where he is expected to be a short priced favourite in a fairly weak race. If he wins well tomorrow, and shows potential in doing so, I would expect the price to be trimmed in.

[alexmac]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow THE MARKET MAN in the Royal and Sun Alliance - 10/1. Was at Newbury last month to see him in action, and what a performance he put in. Absolutely spring heeled every obstacle put in front of him. Geraghty said he was the best jumper he had ever sat on after the race, and again, I think 10/1 could be a large price come March. The problem with The Market Man is that he has weak feet, so we may only see him once more prior to the Festival. If he is kept well at home, and continues to school well then he is very much the one to beat in my opinion.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Mowgli, Dave Nevison talks up SDM's chances of winning the big one in this weeks Racing and Football Outlook... Great shout.

Nothing of the 33/1 is available anymore. Glad I got 50s at betfair after the last race. Down to 20s on the exchanges and as big as 25/1 just at two bookies. 20/1 elsewhere. There have definitely been some money for him. Could well be single figures on the day.

[alexmac]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Maybe the big hitters have got involved...? SDM was very impressive last week, but I cannot have him beating a fully fit Denman...

[stewartd14]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Backed Hebridean @ 14/1 for the Triumph before his run today. If he wins he will no doubt shorten, and if this horse can jump, he has the potential to be very classy for Paul Nicholls.

[fintron]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Absolutely thrilled with the run from Star De Mohaison and was waiting for it to go back chasing. It would be the highlight of the season for me if it won the Gold Cup' date=' it's just one of those horses I rate really highly and would love to see it win a big race. I think a few of us on here are on ante post (Me, Mileni, AK1979, Fintron ???) and my £15 at 95.0 is looking sweet now. I suppose if it wins a Gold Cup trial and becomes a single figure price I should lay some of the bet off. With doubts about Denman and Kauto this could be the Nichollks horse that takes the top prize come March and he always said it was a Gold Cup horse even if it's a year later than expected due to injuries. :hope[/quote'] Yes mate, I took your advice back in October and got £2 matched at 120.0. I won't be laying off with such a small outlay but I don't bet big ante-post and I'm more than happy just to have that much on now the odds have collapsed. Great call. I've also just done an ante-post lucky 15 for the festival with Star de Mohaison (Gold Cup) 22/1, Simarian (Triumph Hurdle) 16/1, Katchit (Champion Hurdle) 9/1 and Blazing Bailey (World Hurdle) 7/1. 50p singles, 35p doubles, 20p trebles and a 10p acca = £5.00

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Ashkazar 20/1 var for the champion hurdle 12.5 pts e.w. Could see Ashkazar's price for the ch go quite low after tomorrow. It runs in a handicap off 147 but its very conceivable for me that its at least a ch contender in which case it could take some beating tomorrow. This horse was a former aga khan horse on the flat and a good one at that, just lost to royal and regal in a listed race, decent efforts in group 2s/3s. Something with that type of level on teh falt has to be respected on the hurdling scene. He started off his hurdle win with an easy win over emerald wilderness before perhaps a disappointing effort behind franchoek. However since that run he has performed very well over hurdles under different tactics when being more prominently ridden. Im not sure he has to be ridden in such a way but the tactics certainly worked when he won the competitive imperial cup and than run a mighty race at chelt., only just going down to CAJ giving two pounds as well and that is just a 7/1 shot for the ch. I think there are some legitimate claims that ashkazar could overturn that form around. A nice sort who could improve anyway, his run at chelt. was good in the sense that the nature of the race didnt necessarily sort him. He did best of the prominent runners by some way in that race, given the gruelling nature of the track that day, it was always going to be hard to make all/ride prominently for still inexperienced 4 year olds. Also the run was coming off his imperial cup win just a few days later so that has to be factored into the equation too. The yard went very close in this race last year with osana who didnt have the form going into last season that ashkazar has. I like the way he battles as well in his races, he sees out the 2m very well and that is a real advantage at chelt. especially if turns into a test. Be interesting to see hwo he gets going tomorrow first.

[Aykay1]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow World Hurdle: Fiveforthree – @ 32.0 betfair, ew @ 33/1 b365<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

This is starting to look like a very competitive race, especially after yesterday, but I’ve looked for any potential value that might remain and found this one. Winner of the Ballymore at the Festival last season, he has been staying on in his races over shorter and has stamina in his pedigree. Will now be staying hurdling this season after an injury interrupted his novice chasing career, which will now start next season instead. Last seasons form gives him a good chance of being competitive in this and there are far worse 33/1 each way bets right now.

[Aykay1]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Absolutely thrilled with the run from Star De Mohaison and was waiting for it to go back chasing. It would be the highlight of the season for me if it won the Gold Cup, it's just one of those horses I rate really highly and would love to see it win a big race. I think a few of us on here are on ante post (Me, Mileni, AK1979, Fintron ???) and my £15 at 95.0 is looking sweet now. I suppose if it wins a Gold Cup trial and becomes a single figure price I should lay some of the bet off. With doubts about Denman and Kauto this could be the Nichollks horse that takes the top prize come March and he always said it was a Gold Cup horse even if it's a year later than expected due to injuries.

Yeah im on at 90.0 Mowgli so thanks for that. If it comes in (unlikely but not impossible) i will owe you big time! If it doesnt it was a great spot anyway :clap I've also back Simirian in the Triumph (pinched from fintron)

This race has proven a key trial for the Trimph hurdle in recent years so I think SIMARIAN is worth a little ante-post bet at at the prices available.

The last 3 winners of that race have finished 2nd, 1st and 2nd in the Triumph, Simirian is 2 from 2 at Cheltenham too and versatile re: ground. The only bets i've had of my own so far are Fiveforthree in the World Hurdle (above) and I am debating What a Friend for the R&SA but undecided right now. Gold Cup: Star de Mohaison @ 90.0 (cheers Mowgli) Triumph: Simirian: ew @ 20/1 (cheers fintron) World Hurdle: Fiveforthree: @ 32.0 and ew @ 33/1

[Aykay1]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow This is a historically important factor at the Festival but if a horse has never run at Cheltenham, what other courses show similar characteristics? So you could say if a horse has run well at xxxxxx track, he is likely to take well to Cheltenham. Thanks :)

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

This is a historically important factor at the Festival but if a horse has never run at Cheltenham, what other courses show similar characteristics? So you could say if a horse has run well at xxxxxx track, he is likely to take well to Cheltenham. Thanks :)

Exeter is same sort of track but only difference is its the other way round, but horses tend to act on both tracks. Suprisingly Newbury seems ok also but i think thats due to its very difficult run in needing stamina in bundles to get home.

[Aykay1]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Cheers Bowles :ok

[fintron]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Call me mad for opposing Kauto Star if you like but I'm having a little nibble on Snoopy Loopy for the King George on Boxing Day (20/1 SJ, 1/4 odds 3 places). At the prices I can't resist and I've just opened the door to a black cat :lol Joking aside, whilst Snoopy Loopy may lack the class of Kauto Star he undoubtedly stays and he's a gutsy so and so, so I have nothing but admiration for him as he'll run his usual solid race. He beat Kauto at Haydock last month and whilst an in form Kauto is a better animal for sure, he was beaten before he fell that day which shows even hot favs do get beaten from time to time. Traditionally this race is one favs do well in and all of the last four runnings have been won by the market leader, but Edredon Bleu's 25/1 success in 2003 offers a glimmer of hope that he could win. Snoopy Loopy has enjoyed a magnificent season and he's probably my favourite jumps horse at the minute. He reminds me of Exotic Dancer in reason years, he's not a hype horse that everyone gets worked up about, but he gets the job done and springs the odd upset. His recent form is well known - he won a Grade 1 chase at Haydock, finished 3rd in the Hennessy and gave another gutsy display last time out when going down only half a length to Monet's Garden. Its been a very impressive campaign from him to date and he's certainly no Christmas Turkey.

[mowgli77]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Voy Por Ustedes - King George - 26/12/08 I was considering leaving Kauto Star out of my 10 to follow as I knew everyone else would have it and I wasn't sure about it's form and what to expect from it this season. I didn't see the race when it fell at the last so I don't know if it would have won that day but whatever I still can't take 6/4 on it. I think both Air Force One and Voy Por Ustedes are lively contenders but will side with Voy Por because I think it will get the trip and be there at the finish. It was well beaten at Cheltenham over 2m so the decision to step up in trip to 2m4f was a very good one when it reversed the form with Master Minded and beat the highest rated horse in training by 18 lengths. When it returned this season it made a slight jumping error at the end of the race and lost momentum but when asked for a response it was picking up again near the finish and it's a matter of opinion whether you think it will get 3m+ but I think it will. It usually jumps well and doesn't often lose ground at the fences and I think it was crying out for the step up from 2m. It's currently 4-1 at Corals and I'm going to take some of that. I'd love to see Voy Por and Kauto going at it hammer and tongs at the last, really looking forward to this race and hope the King/Thornton combo can beat Walsh/Nicholls in a great race and will be interesting to see if Kauto still has that old sparkle or if it really is going backwards. Suggested Bet: 10pts WIN Voy Por Ustedes 4-1 Corals (King George - Boxing Day)

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Just think this represents a decent bit of value now CHAMPION HURDLE SIZING EUROPE 8/1 HILLS ew bet If Henry De Bromhead can keep this animal fresh & fit for the big race come March it could be the one that gives Binocular a fight up that hill which as we saw last year, the McManus horse went down to Captain Ceebee. Its from going into last years race justified the favouritism & seemingly going extremely well blew up with a leg injury & trailed in almost last. I liked its comeback in the 4 runner race Hardy Eustace won on heavy ground. believe me, Sizing is best on fast ground & may get it come March, anything better thann soft will be in its favour. I also have Katchit in my camp but that horse needs to build up a bit more than it has & i hope King puts it away for the big one & brings it out fighting. Both of these can give the mcmanus horse a race & 2.1 for a place is looking better than 6/4 Binocular to win IMO.

[Aykay1]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow I think the Champion Hurdle is presenting some good each way value at the moment with Binocular being so heavily backed.