Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

[puntyboy]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow hey guys...only put up one horse in this thread last year and that was paadytheplasterer before the new year This year my gauranteed shorter price cpme the time of the race is King Johns Castle in the GN. JP's nephew frequently comes drinkin where i work, he very rarely gives me tips. But he told me "if" king johns goes for aintree then GET ON. The horse is biggest now at 22's with any high street and 16's in places. I got him at 40's bout a month ago. JP wants this race and so does AP...this is the horse they wanna do it with. Come the day of the race i see him beein 7'8'9' to 1. Snap it all up guys.

[stewartd14]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

hey guys...only put up one horse in this thread last year and that was paadytheplasterer before the new year This year my gauranteed shorter price cpme the time of the race is King Johns Castle in the GN. JP's nephew frequently comes drinkin where i work, he very rarely gives me tips. But he told me "if" king johns goes for aintree then GET ON. The horse is biggest now at 22's with any high street and 16's in places. I got him at 40's bout a month ago. JP wants this race and so does AP...this is the horse they wanna do it with. Come the day of the race i see him beein 7'8'9' to 1. Snap it all up guys.

33/1 with Victor Chandler - had a nibble Cheers for the info mate ;)

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

That's an interesting runner. He was winning grade 1s and 2s 3 years ago' date=' but after 2 year absense has only placed in listed and grade chase, so probably lost a bit of his ability. If Henderson can get him ready though, then we'll be looking at a 160 contender running off 143. Stable's other runners seem to be weaker in the market.[/quote'] my only concern would be i dont think a french bred horse has won the race for over 100 years? i might be wrong, these records are there to be broken though i suppose.:)

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

hey guys...only put up one horse in this thread last year and that was paadytheplasterer before the new year This year my gauranteed shorter price cpme the time of the race is King Johns Castle in the GN. JP's nephew frequently comes drinkin where i work, he very rarely gives me tips. But he told me "if" king johns goes for aintree then GET ON. The horse is biggest now at 22's with any high street and 16's in places. I got him at 40's bout a month ago. JP wants this race and so does AP...this is the horse they wanna do it with. Come the day of the race i see him beein 7'8'9' to 1. Snap it all up guys.

cheers mate, imagine if AP chose it over Butlers Cabin..:loon price would be clipped even more on the day of the race.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

my only concern would be i dont think a french bred horse has won the race for over 100 years? i might be wrong' date=' these records are there to be broken though i suppose.:)[/quote'] That's not a concern if Henderson finds the key to have him running to form in his 160s. I'd take any horse that's 20lbs well in despite french horse not winning the race for a decade. Or the fact no jockey wearing swastika has ever won it either. Or whatever the trends say :) I've always been a form punter. The word last year was that the greys don't have a good record and they are to be avoided. Well I had King Johns Castle at 33/1 and I got a very nice payout. This year I may be on the third gray winning the race. Same name, same horse, same color .. 50/1 ;) As for the Henderson runner, it's a guesswork, because we haven't seen him yet. But a french bred will win it one day and I'm sure we'll be alive to see it.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow KJC's gamble started around this time last year. I remember the price going to 20/1 when the rumours about AP riding him first came. He was as big as 40/1. I managed to get the last 33/1 with all the firms going 25/1 and 20/1. These are the latest news: Arthur Moore, trainer of the JP McManus-owned ten-year-old, said: " We're looking at starting King Johns Castle back in either a rated hurdle at Navan or in the same handicap hurdle at Naas which he won last year before going on to finish second in the National."

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Racing Post Chase - Saturday at Kempton POSSOL each way 12/1 Bet365 This just looks an outstanding Each Way selection as in the 12 chases, it has completed everyone to day & finished in the 1st 3 11 times out of 12, winning 3 times. It has stepped up to 3miles well this season after mainly campaigning at 2m 5f mark last season. I would expect the horse will be staying on at the finish & needs to be in that top 5 or 6 3 fences out to have a chance, it will run on.

[fintron]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow I've just been looking ahead to the Eider Chase at Newcastle this Saturday with a view to finding one for the National, but its seems unlikely the GN winner will come from this years renewal. Im having a bet in the race anyway. Looking over the past couple of winners it seems class tells very much in this race with the likes of Comply or Die, Nil Desperandum and Thyneandthyneagain just three of those to lump 11-12 around the track and go on to win. Recent wins also seem to be dominated by runners aged 9 or 10 and most had won over 3 miles or more previously going into the race. The three that interest me as a result are Harmony Brig, Natiain and Morgan Be. I have decided to back Harmony Brig, simply because he has previous course winning form over fences here, wheras Natain has done all his winning in hunter chases and Morgan Be has won solely at Ayr. Harmony Brig carries top-weight as the joint top-rated horse in the field (rated 136) and he seems to tick plenty of the boxes. He's from a top jumps yard (Nicky Richards), has proven stamina over three miles, has course winning form, acts on soft/heavy ground, is only 4 lbs higher than his highest ever winning chase mark and showed he is in good heart with a rallying effort to win last time out. The trainer seemed to be giving mixed messages when he said this on Sporting Life...

"All being well, he will be there," said the Greystoke handler. "He worked very nicely earlier in the week but it is just a real shame about the weight. "Looking at it on paper, it might not be the strongest Eider ever run but it will still take some winning. "We will put the cheekpieces on him again - I'm not sure if it was those or the return to hurdles that sparked him into life last time, but he should put up a good show. "I just hope the ground isn't too bad."

Well, they have said that the race isn't the strongest renewal ever for both of the last few runnings and there has never been a runner approaching the 150 ceiling. Comply or Die was another that wore headgear when winning last year so there is a little bit of similarity there and I'm not discounting just because cheekpieces are on. Sunny weather is forecast for Fri and Sat so hopefully the ground will dry out a bit. He's 16/1 with Skybet, so I'm having a little bash EW.

[fintron]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow A quick question...if a horse wins the Eider, can they be supplemented for the national? With Harmony Brig above, he is rated 136, say if he wins well and his rating goes up, could he make the line up at Aintree in theory?

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

A quick question...if a horse wins the Eider' date=' can they be supplemented for the national? With Harmony Brig above, he is rated 136, say if he wins well and his rating goes up, could he make the line up at Aintree in theory?[/quote'] Once the marks and the weights are announced for the National they stay like this. Future handicaps are not relevant.

[fintron]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Once the marks and the weights are announced for the National they stay like this. Future handicaps are not relevant.

Harmony Brig doesn't hold an entry for Aintree though. Basically, is the race still open to future entrants? Or are we looking at a field of 40 from those that are currently entered. If, on the offchance Harmony Brig was entered, would he be entered on his mark at the time the national weights were published (in which case he is very unlikely to make the cut) or could he be supplemented and entered on his future mark, should he win the Eider on Sat? Also, if it is possible to supplement runners, have there been any instances of horses going on to win at Aintree in this way or is a case of winning trainers preparing their horses for quite a while, mapping out their route over the year and entering them for the race a long time ago? Cheers.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow No, mate. The horse should be entered in order to participate. The first 40 go for the race. If something from the higher marks is withdrawn horse 41,42 etc. takes his place. In order to have as classiest field as possible.

[fintron]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Ok, thanks. He wasn't listed on the ante-post list for the national anyway, but if it was possible for him to go to Aintree I would have considered emailing betfair and asking to get him on as I think he could go well on Saturday.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Supreme Novice - Conflictofinterest @ 25/1 e/w Thought to have a great deal of ability and a good run today. Some say he should have won, but he had a breathing operation and I think his best run will be in the Supreme. He's been kept there on purpose and he is the yard's supreme novice horse.

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Racing Post Chase - Saturday at Kempton POSSOL each way 12/1 Bet365 This just looks an outstanding Each Way selection as in the 12 chases, it has completed everyone to day & finished in the 1st 3 11 times out of 12, winning 3 times. It has stepped up to 3miles well this season after mainly campaigning at 2m 5f mark last season. I would expect the horse will be staying on at the finish & needs to be in that top 5 or 6 3 fences out to have a chance, it will run on.

Like i said, an outstanding ew chance, 2nd :ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow The Triumph is not the same race as it was five years ago. With the advent of the Fred Winter juvenile handicap, it is a lot easier for the top juveniles. A lot of the ones who would be 16/1 to 33/1 for the Triumph will be going for the Fred Winter instead. Then there are the sharper types who these days miss the Triumph and go straight for the Anniversary at Aintree (Hebridean). Torphichen looks more likely to take part in the Supreme, which looks more open this year than the other novice hurdles. Trenchent may go elsewhere but even if he does go for the Triumph, is thought vastly inferior to Walkon. If you have not backed Walkon yet I suggest doing so now. I have saved on Zaynar, but if you prefer an each way then that is also a decent bet at the current 5/1. Corals are I believe "non-runner no bet" so I suggest backing it with them. If you fancy any of the top four in the betting it may well be best to get on now. Ginge

[mowgli77]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

The Triumph is not the same race as it was five years ago. With the advent of the Fred Winter juvenile handicap, it is a lot easier for the top juveniles. A lot of the ones who would be 16/1 to 33/1 for the Triumph will be going for the Fred Winter instead. Then there are the sharper types who these days miss the Triumph and go straight for the Anniversary at Aintree (Hebridean). Torphichen looks more likely to take part in the Supreme, which looks more open this year than the other novice hurdles. Trenchent may go elsewhere but even if he does go for the Triumph, is thought vastly inferior to Walkon. If you have not backed Walkon yet I suggest doing so now. I have saved on Zaynar, but if you prefer an each way then that is also a decent bet at the current 5/1. Corals are I believe "non-runner no bet" so I suggest backing it with them. If you fancy any of the top four in the betting it may well be best to get on now. Ginge

Took Walkon at 20's and more than happy with that. King has a great record in the Triumph, am I right in thinking Franchoek and Katchit won this race? There was 5's available for Walkon and 5's available for King to win the Triumph. If he had multiple runners I know which bet i'd be taking. :ok I've just posted in the Gold Cup thread Ginge, what I would class as 2 value bets and I bet they aren't those prices on raceday. ;) Let us know what you think.

[welshman443]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow triumph-hurdle--leathal-weapon-16/1 this horse seems to have been overlooked even though he was a bit quirky on the flat,his trainer[c.roche] as said jumping as made a man of him .he as won all three of his starts over hurdles including the grade 1 durking juvenile hurdle at leopardstown,progressing each time and will go to cheltenham a fresh horse he also as more phisical scope than the other irish juvenile hurdlers and as in the past there is no man better at producing one on the big day as roche

[devil tish]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

RSA - Killyglen @ 66/1 - Sky Sky were slow to react and I took a small nibble at the price. I think Howard Johnson has added another gem to his stable here. Impressive winner today conceding weight and has an outside chance in the RSA. Shrewd trainer, no surprise the horse is entered in the race, trust me!

11/1ish today mileni.....nice bet at 66/1:clap

[devil tish]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Royal & SunAlliance Chase Wednesday, 11 March 2009 2:40 Carruthers 9-2 JointFavorite for the Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 (Registered as The Spa Novices´ Hurdle) last year. Finished 11 of 18 by 57 lengths. He defeated the winner by 13 lengths two months earlier. Racing Post Analysis of the race said: "..did not get much peace in front and was soon done with when taken on running down to the penultimate flight." What A Friend is 8-1 for the RSA whom Carruthers lost to by 2L on his reappearance/chase debut last October. He defeated What A Fried by a length on his hurdle debut in Nov07. Current favorite for the race is 6-1 (Betfred) Breedzbreeze. I think he's still under the radar because he's not found a race to go into for a while. Overall he's a useful sort who should not be as big as 33-1. There is also the possibility he'd be able to be layed at a lower price after today's race at Fakenham (1:50). 1pt ew @ 33-1 Sportingbet

6/1ish today....good luck m8:hope

[devil tish]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Forpadydeplasterer 20/1 var 12.5 pts e.w for the arkle. This horse was made for chasing' date=' really anything he did over hurdles was always going to be a bonus and it wasnt as if he was bad over hurdles, he won a grade 1 over hurdles and ran well enough at the fest. before possibly not seeing out the 2 and a half miles fully. I have been pretty impressed with the way he has jumped so far in his career. On his first start he only just won and the form of that is very ordinary but really that race never suited him with the complete lack of any real pace. His second lto in a grade 1 was a good run. He actually ended up taking the running that day which he doesnt have to do but he travelled and jumped well for some time before just failing late on as the talented trafford lad picked him off. Im not that concerned by that late defeat and prefer to take the positives from it. That race was over 2 and a half miles and it seems to me he might just be more of a natural 2m. He never truly saw out the trip that day nor at chelt. over hurdles and certainly I dont see it as a RSA horse myself. Of course these things need to be considered with an ante post selection but connections have been reported of saying that the arkle is really like a 2 and a half mile race which imo I would agree with, certainly 2m staying types seem to be winning it of late through the likes of MWDS and TB in just the last two years. The major pace they go seems to set the race up for horses who can travel on the back of that pace and stay on and FPTP looks a type who can do that imo. Certainly giving the nature of the arkle, I would prefer them to go down that route. Whether they do that or not is not certain but connections were about to run him on boxing day in the 2m chase before a minor setback so it would seem they are thinking that way. The arkle picture itself looks open atm with tatenen just losing the other day despite getting a generous weight pull, free world has to come into calculations despite a very narrow defeat lto as would araldur who got up late to beat it and could be the staying type who would find the nature of the race suiting but may not go that route. So with a fuzzy picture im taking a chance that FPTP goes for this race and could do something at 20/1, feel it should be shorter than that if lining up on the day.[/quote'] awesome:notworthy:notworthy:clap woody you are the ante-post king

[devil tish]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Sorry for the after eventing. Didn't have time to post before the race. Took 33/1 for Massinis Maguire and glad to see him back. All bookies go 16/1 and 20/1, but Tote still have 25/1 which is value. He likes Cheltenham and trainer always thought of him as a pontential top chaser. He also had an injury and remains lightly raced. Has the potential to improve a lot over fences. These will be my RSA Chase bets. 2 looking good at present with Aran Concerto 25/1 and Massini 33/1. Herecomesthetruth at 40 looks bad at the minute, but I still have hopes for him.

12/1 ish today best of luck mate:hope

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Thanks mate. I have The Market Man at 35.0 too :lol But to be honest I fancy Cooldine a lot. Not surprised money are coming for him.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Paul Nicholls has many for the Arkle' date=' but he was talking about [b']Chapoturgeon as Arkle prospect even before he was yet to run in Britain. Showed he has class winning 2 hurdles and has lots of scope to be another exciting chasing prospect for the powerful yard. I had a nibble at 75 at Betfair just in case. Should win today and the price could be shrewd ;)

I knew this one is classy. Thought Nicholls is out of form. His horses don't look very well in the paddock. This one didn't look good either, but absolutely hacked up.

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

WORLD HURDLE - Big Bucks @ 20/1 E/W (VC Bet) This came from leftfield for me too. A horse travels nicely in the Hennessey, before falling at the last. Comes back yesterday and wins very nicely in a hurdles race, when up against some pretty decent hurdlers. Well, Nicholls seems to think that if he is successful in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham later this month, then his Festival target could well be the stayers hurdle. It kind of makes sense - we know he stays the 3mile trip, we know he can win round Prestbury, and we know he will have a cracking jock up on him at the Festival. So 20/1 seems like a decent shout for an E/W bet IMO. Clearly, Punchestowns will have to be beaten, but a place is very much within Big Bucks' capability.

well done mate, i took 14's at the same time so well happy, but didnt back it today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow :clap:clap

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Very early days, but Ive taken (for small stakes) 2 singles and 1 double for Mikael D'Haguenet 7/1 RSA Chase 2010 and Hurricane Fly 7/1 Champion Hurdle 2010. with Stan James If they both make it to Cheltenham next year then they prices could represent very good value. No doubt at some point next season the prices will get bigger but Im happy to take chances with a couple of potential superstars!!!

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow This year's champion hurdler is 4th in the market behind the horses he beat + Hurricane Fly. How's that for a Champion Hurdle next year? :loon Dunno what I'll be doing one LOOONG year till it is March again, honestly.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow My Will ran a great race in 5th and has shortened to 16/1 for the National. There is still 50/1 for Roll ALong, who was 6th and they are just withing 3lbs. 50s for Roll Along is huge !! I am already on 120s, but I think the 50s at couple of bookies should be attacked if you haven't done that by now.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Only Lads have it now.