Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

[mowgli77]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Just think this represents a decent bit of value now CHAMPION HURDLE SIZING EUROPE 8/1 HILLS ew bet If Henry De Bromhead can keep this animal fresh & fit for the big race come March it could be the one that gives Binocular a fight up that hill which as we saw last year, the McManus horse went down to Captain Ceebee. Its from going into last years race justified the favouritism & seemingly going extremely well blew up with a leg injury & trailed in almost last. I liked its comeback in the 4 runner race Hardy Eustace won on heavy ground. believe me, Sizing is best on fast ground & may get it come March, anything better thann soft will be in its favour. I also have Katchit in my camp but that horse needs to build up a bit more than it has & i hope King puts it away for the big one & brings it out fighting. Both of these can give the mcmanus horse a race & 2.1 for a place is looking better than 6/4 Binocular to win IMO.

I'm actually considering that bet too. I was impressed with Binocular but the price is ridiculous for me. There are Katchit, Sizing Europe, Osana, Sublimity and Punjabi also in the field and I think Sizing Europe would have won last year if it hadn't blown up. I've got SE in my 10 to follow but also Jered which has potential but looks short of top class.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow What about Snap Tie? I think he's the dark horse in the Champion Hurdle market, because Hobbs has given him time to rest now to bring him back for the better spring ground. He's the one that can go very close. Does well at Cheltenham and finished 4 lengths behind Binocular giving him 7lbs. Then beat Katchit and is now relaxing before he's brought back for the spring. He's definitely a horse that will pick this season and with record 2,6,2,1,2,2,3 at Cheltenham I wouldn't be surprised if he's very close when they run him in the Champion Hurdle. More than happy with 33s for win and 8s for place at Betfair.

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

I'm actually considering that bet too. I was impressed with Binocular but the price is ridiculous for me. There are Katchit' date=' Sizing Europe, Osana, Sublimity and Punjabi also in the field and I think Sizing Europe would have won last year if it hadn't blown up. I've got SE in my 10 to follow but also Jered which has potential but looks short of top class.[/quote'] Osana i think is going chasing & is 2nd or 3rd fav for the arkle. Henderson will know if Punjabi can beat Binocular & maybe thats where SE comes into the form lines with Osana etc Sublimity still not sure about either, the change of stables is a worry. Jered is still a talking horse but being owned by McManus, will he go 2 or 3 handed? Definitely a great race to mull over.

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

What about Snap Tie? I think he's the dark horse in the Champion Hurdle market' date=' because Hobbs has given him time to rest now to bring him back for the better spring ground. He's the one that can go very close. Does well at Cheltenham and finished 4 lengths behind Binocular giving him 7lbs. Then beat Katchit and is now relaxing before he's brought back for the spring. He's definitely a horse that will pick this season and with record 2,6,2,1,2,2,3 at Cheltenham I wouldn't be surprised if he's very close when they run him in the Champion Hurdle. More than happy with 33s for win and 8s for place at Betfair.[/quote'] You know a number of us followed this horse last year & i tipped it up back in October as a Cheltenham horse where it ended 3rd in the triumph on ground it wouldnt act on! The faster the ground the better i feel, & is it top class, i am not sure but will certainly be thereabouts if ridden correctly (mr johnson !). Its aorund 20's now for the race & hopefully we will see it out again beforehand to assess its chances.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow I just think every time Binocular wins this franks the form of Snap Tie from the festival race where they were 3rd and 2nd. Snap Tie has turn of foot and Hobbs said he'll have more stamina this season too. Just hope they haven't gone chasing with him. But reports were he's just having a break for better ground - Cheltnham and Aintree.

[fintron]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow I'm having a mug punt on Doctor David for the Arkle. I put it in my tentofollow and after it won its first race this year I emailed Betfair to get him on the ante-post list. Unfortunately nobody matched my bet, I didn't realise he was running at the weekend, he won, and after trading at 320.0 he's now 16/1 without me getting on. I'm actually quite gutted about that as I could have take 100.0 ish before the weekend but its my own fault for not checking the Haydock card and backing him at lesser odds on the offchance he would put in a good run at the weekend. Because he was so big in the betting I didn't include him in my antepost L15 last week. I thought perhaps I'd been stupid and that there was no way on earth he would ever run in the arkle. I've just put him in doubles and trebles with the others now though in line with the staking as before. The chances of it coming in are slim but for a few quid who cares, at least you can live off the excitement in the mean time and keep your fingers crossed it makes it to Cheltenham.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

I just think every time Binocular wins this franks the form of Snap Tie from the festival race where they were 3rd and 2nd. Snap Tie has turn of foot and Hobbs said he'll have more stamina this season too. Just hope they haven't gone chasing with him. But reports were he's just having a break for better ground - Cheltnham and Aintree.

Runs in the Christmas Hurdle on Boxing Day. 20/1 for the CH. I'm on Sizing Europe too. Won't be surprised if Snap Tie and Sizing Europe are 2nd and 3rd favs behind Binocular. Happy to take him on with the 20s on my fancies. GL whatever you back :ok

[Aykay1]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow R&SA Chase - Massinis Maguire @ 25/1 Coral In anticipation iof a good run today. This one already had a good level of hurdles form, winning the Ballymore Properties at the festival, beating the high class Tidal Bay in the process. Hobbs has always said he would improve as a chaser and the signs looked promising last time out on his chasing debut. Returning from a year out with injury, he jumped and battled well. A good performance at Kempton today will put him into the R&SA Chase picture. It wouldnt be a disaster if this was beaten today as I'm not sure the 3 miles will suit him but i'll be looking for a good performance. The R&SA trip should prove ideal and with the level of form he has already showed at Cheltenham and the priomising signs of his Chase debut, 25/1 could be a decent price come the end of today. EDIT: To add in another for this race Shining Gale @ ew 25/1 Charlie Mann has been giving glowing reports about this one, whom he rates highly and at least the equal of those he faces today. He showed glimpses of promise over hurdles but never really achieved anything high class. A wind operation over the summer has reaped dividends with 2 impressive wins over chases so far, most recently at Cheltenham where he had the beating of highly regarded and subseqent winner herecomesthetruth, before that one ran out at the last fence. The performance of Pressgang later today will be a further boost to Shining Gales chances. Champion Hurdle: Snap Tie @ 20/1 totesport Like the above, I think this one will run well today and could make 20/1 look big come then end of today. Whilst Binocular is a worthy favourite, this one ran it to 4 lengths at the Festival last year on ground that wouldnt have suited. Even if we take the view that Binocular is home and hosed, i think there is an awful lot of each way value in the race at the moment and Snap Tie represents the best of that. Gold Cup: Star de Mohaison @ 90.0 (cheers Mowgli) Triumph: Simirian: ew @ 20/1 (cheers fintron) World Hurdle: Fiveforthree: @ 32.0 and ew @ 33/1 R&SA Chase: Massinis Maguire ew @ 25/1 , Shining Gale ew @ 25/1 and 30.0 Champion Hurdle: Snap Tie ew @ 20/1

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

R&SA Chase - Massinis Maguire @ 25/1 Coral Champion Hurdle: Snap Tie @ 20/1 totesport

Have those two as posted earlier in the thread. Both ran good races and both will like Cheltenham far more than Kempton. I expect them to be shorter for the festival. Very impressed by Massini's Maguire, who imo will beat Breedsbreeze on a galloping track and has still more improvement left in him.

[Aykay1]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow I knew you were on Snap Tie but not Massinis Maguire. Satisfactory for the latter today - as expected he didnt quite see the trip out, but his jumping was a worry. Ruby afterwards said something about the shadows in front of the fences confusing the horses, which was very much the case with The Market Man - he jumoed way too early and went through the fence chest first! Improvement can be expected I think and I reckon Massinis will reverse the form with the winner in march - he has been cut to 16/1, whist Breedzbreeze (or whatever its called) is now favourite.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Breedsbreeze is undefeated over fences and let's see how good he can be at Cheltenham. I am of the opinion he's for the flatter tracks and connections has run him only on such. He didn't go for last year's festival although I expected to see him. I am on 33s on Massini and the 25s at Coral is a good bet. The target will always be RSA and trainer always said this horse will be very good over fences. If he can win it I don't know, but at least I'm sure he likes Cheltenham. As far as I remember he was unfancied to win 2 years ago, but took the Supreme Novices at 20s or something. Wide open race, The Market Man is still open to lot of improvement and jumped like a dream at Cheltenham last time. While the Charlie Mann faller is one that also impressed at Cheltenham and I read somewhere that trainer rates him high. He had a breathing operation and should improve a lot too.

[Aykay1]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Yeah this was the first real test for Mann's horse (Shining Gale) and I was looking forward to seeing how good he was. He was another who suffered with his jumping today and it was frustrating to see him fall. Hopefully he can put it right before March as he was going ok otherwise.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow I only watched the race on a small screen during a Huntington handicap. Couldn't see any errors from Massini. Just got close to couple, but no major mishaps. Saw only the last from The Market Man that cost him the race.

[mowgli77]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow 3 horses entered for the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham run today (Pepite De Soleil, Simarian and Walkon) in the 2.40 Chepstow race and all are currently 20-1 for that race yet start today at 5-2, 11-4 and 9-2 for the 2.40. I would fancy Simarian as it has won in style and won twice at Cheltenham, the last time staying on well to win by 7 lengths. Pepite De Soleil is short priced based on stable and reputation whereas Walkon comes from the Alan King stable and he has a good record in the Triumph hurdle and won this race in 2007 with Franchoek. I'm backing the above 3 each way at 20-1 with Bet365 for the Triumph Hurdle, a convincing performance by any of them will likely see the odds halve. A good race today that will provide many indicators for March. :ok

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow i'd agree with you Mowgli but the 2 interest me are reve De Sivola & Walkon. they are 24.0 & 22.0 on betfair for the triumph hurdle & todays race will sort the men from the boys!

[mowgli77]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Pepite De Soleil and Simarian out to 33's but Walkon into 10's with most and 8's with others. Missed the race as I was on Prince Of Persia on my PS3, will try to catch race replay at some point.

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Pepite De Soleil and Simarian out to 33's but Walkon into 10's with most and 8's with others. Missed the race as I was on Prince Of Persia on my PS3' date=' will try to catch race replay at some point.[/quote'] Walkon won easily enough Phil, looks a good prospect. I also liked the 3rd which ran on well Reve de Sivola. They were no match for the winner though & King has said this is his best chance for the triumph, i was surprised it went out to 7/2 today!

[mowgli77]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Walkon won easily enough Phil' date=' looks a good prospect. I also liked the 3rd which ran on well Reve de Sivola. They were no match for the winner though & King has said this is his best chance for the triumph, i was surprised it went out to 7/2 today![/quote'] My ante post tactics will be if a horse is due to run and I fancy it for that race I'll back it for the likely Cheltenham race knowing a good performance will drastically reduce the odds. Works both ways like today, 2 out to 33's from 20's but one into 10's from 20's. I was looking through the Cheltenham 2008 section earlier, we did well as a forum ante post wise. I did not realise I had 7's on Inglis which was ok but I had 25's on Kasbah Bliss and that ran a cracker of a race. (Nick Mordin tipped it up last year) If it wasn't for ante post bets I'd have had a poor Cheltenham last year.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Royal & Sun Alliance Chase Herecomesthetruth - Took 40 at Betfair, because he runs tommorrow and will probably be a favorite. If he wins he'll be far shorter. I find it very interesting that Denman ran in the same race in 2006 and then went on to win the RSA chase easily. Herecomesthetruth beat three previous chase winners lto over 3m at Chepstow and clearly stays and has ability. Won two hurdle races as well. The owners are the same as Denman's and the RSA should really be the target. Of course Kicks For Free and Breedsbreeze are strong candidates for the yard too, but I'm still not sure the latter will like Cheltenham and I strongly believe he won't stay 3m there. I expect Herecomesthetruth to win tomorrow and I'm taking the pice now wich a chance to lay tomorrow.

Finally showed what he's capable of. Likes galloping courses and could well end up in the RSA now ahead of Breedsbreeze, for whom Paul Nicholls said he prefers flat tracks. What A Friend is probably sure to go for RSA, but I'm keeping my options with Herecomesthetruth and I'm hopeful he'll be sun alliance class. Certainly that was the promise after they sent him chasing. Not backing anymore in this race. Aran Concerto, Massini's Maguire and Herecomesthetruth are enough :lol

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Here's a few i wouldn't want to be on for Cheltenham in March, all flopped this weekend Tidal Bay Twist Magic The Market Man Pierrot Lunaire Air force once Our vic

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Here's a few i wouldn't want to be on for Cheltenham in March, all flopped this weekend Tidal Bay Twist Magic The Market Man Pierrot Lunaire Air force once Our vic

Agree on 4 except Tidal Bay and The Market Man. The former is always good at Cheltenham and they should now stop playing with him and go for 2m4f. He can take the Ryanair. Beat Noland in the Arkle and I'm sure will beat him again. At the moment has only Voy Por to beat. As for The Market Man, he was coming strongly and would have challenged, but jumped the shadow and not the fence. He landed on it and sometimes this takes all the breath out of the horse. Deserves another chance, because the way he jumped when he beat Kick For Free was amazing and the horse has a good record at Cheltenham.

[Aykay1]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Shining Gale @ ew 25/1 Charlie Mann has been giving glowing reports about this one, whom he rates highly and at least the equal of those he faces today. He showed glimpses of promise over hurdles but never really achieved anything high class. A wind operation over the summer has reaped dividends with 2 impressive wins over chases so far, most recently at Cheltenham where he had the beating of highly regarded and subseqent winner herecomesthetruth, before that one ran out at the last fence. The performance of Pressgang later today will be a further boost to Shining Gales chances.

Herecomesthetruth and Pressganag both won this week which gives the form of this ones win a good look. His fall is a concern but it was evident that the whole field (apart from breedzbreeze) were having issues with the shadows in front of the fences, possibly clutching at straws offering that as an excuse but he was going well wehn he fell and jumpred superbly at cheltenham previously. He has understandably drifted in the ante-post betting but i'll be watching him with interest next time as i dont believe he is a folorn hope yet. Pretty happy with him and Massinis maguire at this stage. Nicholls expressed his concern about Breedsbreeze performing at Cheltemnham - all his form has been on flatter tracks so far.

[alexmac]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow I agree with Mileni re The Market Man, the way he jumped round Newbury was astonishing, and he was travelling nicely (it appeared) before landing on the fence at Kempton. Has drifted in the market somewhat, and now looks like a large price for the festival. I would definately not write him off after just one jumping error...

[alexmac]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Ballymore - DIAMOND HARRY @ 4/1 I was thinking of backing Diamond Harry for this after seeing him win at Cheltenham last month. That was a mightily impressive display from him, and he has since been entered again at Prestbury Park. That meeting was abandoned however. He clearly can handle the track well, and can deal with the undulations. Today, he ran another screamer at Newbury. A totally different track than Cheltenham, but he hacked up, and was again, mightily impressive. His jumping is impeccable, I have not seen him make an error yet, and if he can hold this form till March then I just do not see him being beaten. The Ballymore is beginning to look like a pretty hot race, with a number of Irish raiders hoping to have a say in the matter. I do think that 4/1 represents a decent bet, and I am just kicking myself that I did not get a slightly better price earlier in the month.

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Just had a few quid on Brave Inca for the Champion Hurdle, probably get laughed at but 67.0 on bfair is too big to miss imo. You never know, although BI is getting on a bit,still has plenty of miles left on the clock, lightly raced over the last couple of seasons aswell.

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Here's a few i wouldn't want to be on for Cheltenham in March, all flopped this weekend Tidal Bay Twist Magic The Market Man Pierrot Lunaire Air force once Our vic

Tidal bay didnt flop, it was giving over a stone to the winner & still managed 2nd against other reasonable horses which got weight on a course they do well at, Mister McGoldrick, State of play & ollie Magern. I will deffo be on it at Cheltenham I personally wouldnt touch Twist magic until Punchestown, it wont win at Cheltenham (doubt if it will run either). Our Vic needs soft ground ideally. Air force one cant run as badly as it did ion the KG, needs another race to get confidence back.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Rob, will you back Tidal Bay if they run him in the Ryanair? I think he'll be tough to beat, but so is Voy Por Ustedes, who for me is few lbs better than him and Noland.

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow

Rob, will you back Tidal Bay if they run him in the Ryanair? I think he'll be tough to beat, but so is Voy Por Ustedes, who for me is few lbs better than him and Noland.

yes, he is still on my list to follow, although the horse tends to jump right handed a bit, Cheltenham seems to suit as showed last year. The way it powered away to win the Arkle from Noland was very impressive. VPU is a spring horse no doubt & would also be in my list to back as you know i tend to back 2 or 3 in every race at Chelts. :ok

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Forpadydeplasterer 20/1 var 12.5 pts e.w for the arkle. This horse was made for chasing, really anything he did over hurdles was always going to be a bonus and it wasnt as if he was bad over hurdles, he won a grade 1 over hurdles and ran well enough at the fest. before possibly not seeing out the 2 and a half miles fully. I have been pretty impressed with the way he has jumped so far in his career. On his first start he only just won and the form of that is very ordinary but really that race never suited him with the complete lack of any real pace. His second lto in a grade 1 was a good run. He actually ended up taking the running that day which he doesnt have to do but he travelled and jumped well for some time before just failing late on as the talented trafford lad picked him off. Im not that concerned by that late defeat and prefer to take the positives from it. That race was over 2 and a half miles and it seems to me he might just be more of a natural 2m. He never truly saw out the trip that day nor at chelt. over hurdles and certainly I dont see it as a RSA horse myself. Of course these things need to be considered with an ante post selection but connections have been reported of saying that the arkle is really like a 2 and a half mile race which imo I would agree with, certainly 2m staying types seem to be winning it of late through the likes of MWDS and TB in just the last two years. The major pace they go seems to set the race up for horses who can travel on the back of that pace and stay on and FPTP looks a type who can do that imo. Certainly giving the nature of the arkle, I would prefer them to go down that route. Whether they do that or not is not certain but connections were about to run him on boxing day in the 2m chase before a minor setback so it would seem they are thinking that way. The arkle picture itself looks open atm with tatenen just losing the other day despite getting a generous weight pull, free world has to come into calculations despite a very narrow defeat lto as would araldur who got up late to beat it and could be the staying type who would find the nature of the race suiting but may not go that route. So with a fuzzy picture im taking a chance that FPTP goes for this race and could do something at 20/1, feel it should be shorter than that if lining up on the day.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jumps Season 08/09 - Antepost Bets & Horses To Follow Very interesting chase runner tomorrow at Warwick - Song Of Songs. 7th from this year's festival. Could be a classy chaser and an Arkle prospect for JP McManus. A bit of 130s and 120s at Betfair if you want to play. I had a small nibble.