Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 5/04/08

[welshman 2005]

8.50 Kempton - Gallic Charm (win) won twice over 8f, and once over C/D. Although he is going up a grade, the booking of Jamie Spencer means that trainer is taking the race seriously (famous last words :eyes:eyes). The horses she beat in her last two races have both boosted the form by winning their subsequent races.

[jtw1]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 5/04/08 GRAND NATIONAL ---------------- Stats are every where so i've taken the 10 steps from this weeks RFO and it's left us wth 1 horse. 10 steps are - 1- Although usually the weight limit is 11:00 and under , as has been pointed out elsewhere , there are no horses running from out of the Handicap again this year [ 10:06 lowest ] so consider those carrying 11:05 or less 2- Eliminate those who have not shown any winning form at 3m+ 3- Ignore those who have not ran for 50days [ i've taken out a few on 49] 4- Ignore those who have ran 3 times or under this season or over 6. 5- Rule out any French breds. 6- No headgear [ Earth Summit was the only one since the 70's to have them] 7- Must be aged between 8-12 8- No Novices 9- Eliminate all those who have fallen MORE than twice in their career. 10 - Official Rating must be between 136 - 147 Apply them all and your left with - SLIM PICKINGS :hope

[TheRat]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 5/04/08 Second race at Aintree I can't keep thinking that Kruguyrova is a good EW bet here. Im sure many of you think that Tidal Bay is cracking value, and it will have to have lost a bit since Cheltenham for the selection to really stand a chance, but we have seen some top horses beaten at this meeting already and I think it may happen here. Does have a bit to find but resilient sort who has reversed placings before notably with Big Bucks who won well here today. Not really tested on Good ground but am willing to take a chance on an upset

[manckevin]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 5/04/08 Are you sure I can't name CONTRABAND as a lay (sorry for hijacking this very deadly serious thread) ;)

[Falbrav]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 5/04/08 1.35 Lingfield. Bahhmirage. Lay. (Racing Post F/C 7/2) She's in good enough form with winning her last 3 races, but although you can do no more than win, they were in lowly claimers and now she goes back handicapping. The weights suggest she needs to find a bit more, so with several others 'seemingly' better weighted and looking to go well, it all looks a tough ask for her to get win number 4 on the bounce. Also she's never won here at Lingfield in three attempts, and although they were early in her career, it's still another little question to answer. If she does go and win, then I'll be the first to say well done.

[BillyHills]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 5/04/08 405 Chepstow : Mango Catcher 1pt win Once quite useful in Ireland but been out of form lately, now with new connections and ran a blinder at Kempton behind Green Gamble on his first start for them, well backed too so this could be a well handicapped animal. This race looks easier so I expect to him to win despite a 5lb rise in the weights, could make this lot look ordinary.

[peteg40]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 5/04/08 1 pt lay :ok 2.50 Aintree OSANA had a tough race at Cheltenham and not sure to stay 2miles 4furlongs looks one to take on against a field of proven 2m 4 horses. I think he will drift in the market....

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 5/04/08 Ain 4.15 Comply Or Die 0.5 pts e.w I got 150/1 on betfair and 20/1 to place so in a good position with this. Comply or Die I anticipated was well in on its old, RSAC and Hennessy form, good GN clues in the past and has bounced back to form now since the blinkers have worked and they have twice so thats important imo when second to Cloudy Lane, gets weight pull now and after really good well in Eider when winning off top weight proving immense stamina it has, 11 pounds well in oficially ok its not 20 (formlines indicate it could be) it has a huge e.w chance at the very least.

[jackg99]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 5/04/08 2.15 aintree TAKEROC 1PT WIN running well trainer fancies him today and arkle winners lose more than they win at aintree so odds on fav worth taking on

[RussP]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 5/04/08 2.10 Lingfield 14 runners go to post for this 7f Class 3 handicap. There are some decent types contesting this but the market revolves around a lto maiden winner and a horse off the track for 12 months. For that reason, I think there is a bit of EW value here and I'm sweet on the chances of: Yarqus (8/1 >Betfred) - A frustrating type who struggles to get its head in front, however conditions look perfect for a big run today. Has been extremely well with good efforts in the Royal Hunt Cup and the Cambridgeshire last term amongst others. Has always looked at its best when ridden prominently and with strong handling. Has the best jockey in the plate today, taking over from Hayley Turner, and that could make the difference. Is also dropped in class today which will suit as well as being fit from a couple of spins on this surface. In those 2 races, finished reasonably close up in decent races, the Winter Derby trial and the Lincoln trial. Is eased a little in mark too, now off 89 meaning it can get in this 0-90 contest. Having watched back its recent races, I'm certain this drop in trip won't be a problem as it usually picks up well from close to the pace but gets collared late on when trying to see out the trip. Stable has been going well early season too so I make this the best EW bet of the day at an early 8/1. That price won't last. EW

[youngveteran]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 5/04/08 3:25 aintree rio de janiero i backed at chelteham lto was unlucky to finish 4th, previous runs have suggested he will need the step up in trip. will go close. 14/1 0.5 e/w

[Cassius Marcellus]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 5/04/08 2-05 Newcastle - Celtic Change - LAY Tried over 10 furlongs last time but clearly didn't like it, finishing last of 12. Back over a trip that suits today but I think the going is a tad too good for him. Seemed to take a long while to win one race given his previous placings. RP reckons he's not entirely straightforward, as he tried to duck right when he got the lead with Spencer aboard. Went up 5 lbs when he won, and another 2 when he was 2nd. On the same mark today. This is only his 10th race, but Holland is following Makin, Eaves, Spencer and Durcan as his 5th different jockey. 1 point lay at 7/2 Best of luck to all :ok

[Pumpit]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 5/04/08 Lay Kings Topic 1.35pm Lingfield Seb Sanders 2nd run on this old boy ran a very good race Wedensday coming 2nd in a race standard with todays. Racing so soon after the last plus Blue Eyed Eloise,Competitor and Binnion Bay on my side to win the lay is on. Good luck to all today and good work on this thread by the Mod:ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 5/04/08 3.35 Chepstow - The Apprentice Qrackers looks a good thing with the 2nd place to Franchoek on this track and the easy win lto, but I don't think ground really suites. He won on soft lto and with a penalty today the surface might well be too fast. Trainer in fantastic form makes it a poor value and I think bookies are missing the 2nd fav The Apprentice, who looks great on from. He won a bumper here and then won on hurdling debut. Last time he finished 5th, but look what the horses in front of him did since then. The Jazz Musician won a race. Tamadot has 1st and a 2nd. And the winner Pettifour demolished a class 1 field at Aintree yesterday. For me The Apprentice has a cracking chance today and stable is in good form, so I am on.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 5/04/08 2:15 Aintree Takeroc 1 pt win. 5 yo for the Nicholls yard, who looked very impressive LTO (albeit in a fairly average field), and bypassed Cheltenham much like yesterdays Nicholls/Walsh horse Pierot Lunaire. The effects of the festival and the conditions there, are being shown greatly here, and I believe Tidal Bay will be another festival victor to be turned over. Nicholls/Walsh to strike again.

[Mr Bubbles]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 5/04/08 Aintree 2.50 My Way De Solzen, I was disapointed by its run at cheltenham, but I still think that this is a top class horse, the ground today suits as will the drop back to 2m 4f, so I am hoping for another big run. Win bet.

[Boulder5111]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 5/04/08 A3.25 Laertes 0.5pt E/W Looks to be an improving horse and trainer is in cracking form. Trainer had a 3rd at 50/1 yesterday and this one looks sure to go well at a big price. The claimer takes 7lb off and I have been impressed with him from the few races I have seen him in lately. Has good form at this distance and ran well in a big field last time out.

[BillyHills]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 5/04/08 Winners today WoodyTHFC Won 7/1 BillyHills Won 5/2 RussP Placed 11/2 Peteg40 Lay Cassius Lay Zero Lay any late bets will be added to table

[billy the punter]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 5/04/08 9.20 Kempton Tyrannosaurus Rex - E/W His A/W runs last season were ok. He finished 3rd to Spriggan who was a steering job in a maiden after running some good races in handicapps off mid-high 70 marks. He ran half way down the field on his handicap debut after not being comfortable as he was taken on for the lead. He bounced back to form on his his next start getting done in a photo by Dirriculous. That form reads very good now, the winner was only just beaten off 72 this week. Dirriculous has improved but I also believe T.Rex can too and looks well in off 57. He ran a cracker on his seasonal debut on turf at Ripon last month 6th of 20, and should be spot on for this.

[BillyHills]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Saturday 5/04/08 2 losers on the sand tonight, unlucky guys, will be added to tomorrows table.