Grand National 2008

[Gingertipster]

Re: Grand National 2008

Backbeat 4.15 Aintree (Each Way) Clearly not the stables first string as Denis O'Regan is on Bewleys Berry. Wislon Renwick takes the ride on this mount today and has never ridden it before. The key to this horses chances are if it is ridden prominently, just tracking the leaders. Previous form when ridden like this includes: Jan 08 - Chased leaders (1st of 11) Oct 05 - With leaders (2nd of 10) Dec 04 - Tracked leader (1st of 8) Nov 04 - Chased leader (1st of 8) More recently when it has been held up it has finished 10th and 4th so I hope this is up with the front pack of horses. It is 11 year old but still quite lightly raced for its age as it has only had 17 races. Of the 10 chases it has contested it has won 3 of them and placed 2nd in 2 more. 5 races on good ground have produced 1 win and 2 seconds. It has won over 3m110yds and that was in January 2008. Only 4th last time out but that was over hurdles and that was 1st hurdle run for 5 years, clearly trying to get fitness spot on for todays big race. Has had a break now of 62 days and if it jumps ok it could make a mockery of the 100-1 price. Has a nice racing weight of 10-9 and seems to enjoy staying races.

Just backed this myself, too big at 200/1 on betfair. If he is as good left handed as right (big if) can go well. I make him a 66/1 chance.

[TheRat]

Re: Grand National 2008 http://www1.myp2p.eu/broadcast.php?matchid=9776&part=sports Link to watch

[stewartd14]

Re: Grand National 2008

Sided with: Snowy Morning 18/1 Comply or Die 9/1 Think both will run well off nice weights. g/l everyone. The Topham was a messy race yesterday so lets hope most get around safely. Also a best of luck has to go to Tony Dobbin who retires at the end of this week. :hope

:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana 1st and 3rd :nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana

[leics poshie]

Re: Grand National 2008 got 10/1 with paddys and a 10% bonus :nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana

[TheRat]

Re: Grand National 2008

Got my list of 5 for this year now. Won for the first time ever last year so that's try and make it 2 on the trot! these are based on the trends and stats, all of which have been mentioned already, but from that my list they are (all EW); Point Barrow - 25/1 D'Argent - 33/1 Cloudy Lane - 11/2 Comply Or Die - 11/1 Butlers Cabin - 16/1

:nana From no winners ever to 2 years in row!! Well done those on it too:ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Grand National 2008 33/1 and 25/1 on King Johns Castle E/W came good for me :ok But Comply Or Die was a worthy winner and a gamble landed. Well done especially to WoodyTHFC with 150/1 :eek

[stewartd14]

Re: Grand National 2008

Grand National weights came out today and there were a few that caught the eye down the weights. Character Building at 10-05 especially if it it was not too quick, Philson Run at 10-05 who ran a fine race last year when fourth, Longshanks at 10-03 did not quite get home last year but looks lowly weighted although looks doubtful I would have thought to get in. One that I think could get in at 10-06 is Comply or Die who is 40/1 but on the exhanges has been going on some big prices 370+, I settled for 150 for 5 pts and 20 to place 5 pts. Now whilst some other former RSAC seconds are more fancied for this race such as Snowy Morning and Idle Talk even, this one definitely boasts top form from his 2005 RSAC second when just beaten by Trabolgan. Earlier that season it was Grade 2 winner over fences. Over its hurdle days it was fourth behind Fundamentalist and Inglis Drever at the festival. After its RSAC second it was described as a horse who gallops forever so a race like the GN would seem a logical target in the future. At this stage it was 147 and showed good ground was seemingly ideal. After that it must be said it had disappointed generally, it produced the odd good run in a Hennessy but was pulled up in SGN and WGN. However it returned this season after a two year break and did take some going but lto it produced a brave front running performance on testing ground when just denied by Cloudy Lane who is much shorter for the GN, with the aid of first time blinkers. Now there is a four pounds swing with Cloudy lane so that is fair enough and it is rated offically now 139 which compares well to its old mark. It remains only 9 and reasonably lightly raced and that fact that it has been kept in training by David Johnson and Pipe suggests they think something of it. I see it is entered at a traditional GN trial at Haydock next week and certainly the prices on the exchanges seem big to me. From the ante post thread a couple of months ago, I have also taken Simon @ 18/1 and Cornish Rebel not so good. The Comply Or Die price looks good now after his Eider rout of top weight.

:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap

[TheRat]

Re: Grand National 2008

33/1 and 25/1 on King Johns Castle E/W came good for me :ok But Comply Or Die was a worthy winner and a gamble landed. Well donte especially to WoodyTHFC with 150/1 :eek

Kings John did well, was on my shortlist but didnt pick it in the end :notworthy to Woody. Amazing mate

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Grand National 2008 nice to see a fav go in.....finally

[NIGEL2611]

Re: Grand National 2008 Take a bow Woody "Your'e the Man!!!!" :ok:ok:ok:ok:ok:ok:ok:ok:ok :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap

[Cassius Marcellus]

Re: Grand National 2008 The race graphs are still on Betfair for the 4-15 :dude Almighty cock ups on there this afternoon :rollin The Betfair SP was 7/2 for the winner :loon I put in low odds lays for in-running that were all taken before the first fence, and all showed up as matched on my screen. I had an all green book before they jumped a twig, and accoriding to the horse forum, there were quite a few of us. All lays before the first fence are are now listed as unmatched. My account baance is dead right, but according to matched/unmatched bets, nothing has been settled yet. And even more unbelievable :- Contraband, which must have been the absolute rag, was matched as low as evens for a place !!!

[manckevin]

Re: Grand National 2008

4.15	Aintree
1st	33 Comply Or Die (IRE)	7-1 JF
2nd	27 King Johns Castle (IRE)	20-1
3rd	16 Snowy Morning (IRE)	16-1
4th	12 Slim Pickings (IRE)	10-1

The top ten all carried 11-3 or less. Certainly again worth considering in 2009.

[leics poshie]

Re: Grand National 2008 McKelvey was the only casualty i believe

[TheRat]

Re: Grand National 2008

McKelvey was the only casualty i believe

Yea, big shame though :cry

[manckevin]

Re: Grand National 2008

The race graphs are still on Betfair for the 4-15 :dude Almighty cock ups on there this afternoon :rollin The Betfair SP was 7/2 for the winner :loon I put in low odds lays for in-running that were all taken before the first fence, and all showed up as matched on my screen. I had an all green book before they jumped a twig, and accoriding to the horse forum, there were quite a few of us. All lays before the first fence are are now listed as unmatched. My account baance is dead right, but according to matched/unmatched bets, nothing has been settled yet. And even more unbelievable :- Contraband, which must have been the absolute rag, was matched as low as evens for a place !!!

I'm not a Betfair user usually, but interesting post on their forum... Settlement of Grand National win market The reconciliation of the Betfair SP for the Grand National win market resulted in prices which we believe were significantly unfair for backers of some horses, most obviously the winner. Therefore we unreconciled the Betfair SP to return what we believe were fair prices. As a result of unreconciling bets after the race, some matched bets (which would have been winning bets for customers) became unmatched bets. In addition, some customers may have traded in-play based on bets they believed had been matched. If you believe that you have been disadvantaged as a result of this, please contact us at [email protected]. We will look at our records to determine the amount you should be due and provide compensation accordingly. Please be aware that this may take some time and it is unlikely that we will be able to address all enquiries until next week. Hope it helps anyone concerned by what looks to be an almighty cock up!

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Grand National 2008 some future National hopefuls here:

:rollin

[Cassius Marcellus]

Re: Grand National 2008

I'm not a Betfair user usually, but interesting post on their forum... Settlement of Grand National win market The reconciliation of the Betfair SP for the Grand National win market resulted in prices which we believe were significantly unfair for backers of some horses, most obviously the winner. Therefore we unreconciled the Betfair SP to return what we believe were fair prices. As a result of unreconciling bets after the race, some matched bets (which would have been winning bets for customers) became unmatched bets. In addition, some customers may have traded in-play based on bets they believed had been matched. If you believe that you have been disadvantaged as a result of this, please contact us at [email protected]. We will look at our records to determine the amount you should be due and provide compensation accordingly. Please be aware that this may take some time and it is unlikely that we will be able to address all enquiries until next week. Hope it helps anyone concerned by what looks to be an almighty cock up!

It was their technology that fcuked up somewhere along the line. Now and again people make errors and press lay instead of back, and vice versa, but this was too big for a punter error. According to the screen I had layed the first 6 in the betting to win, all at under 3/1, before the first fence. As I said in my previous post, the last time I looked there was almost a grand matched between evens (£44) 2.32 (£300) and up to 5/2 for a place on a horse that was probably 999/1 to win it. This is layers who put in these odds hoping for somebody to take them in running, which does happen, but not before they've crossed the Melling Road. :lol :lol Betfair odds, when you're sober and you don't get things round the wrong way, are a lot better than your local bookies odds, especially for long shots. Even Cloudy Lane was 9.2 on the off, but it's SP was 7/1 jt-fav (8.0) Some layers try to take advantage of late rushes when people are pissed. If a horse is 3.0 they put 32 in the lay side hoping for it to be mistaken for 3.2, and sometimes it gets taken.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Grand National 2008 Thanks very much for all the congratulations. Fantastic performance by Comply Or Die, jumped and travelled so well and was given a great ride by Murphy, similar to what he did in the Eider and he was a very good winner of the race and I do not just say that because I backed it, well partly I do but even still it was so impressive.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Grand National 2008 I just watched the race again and I must say Paul Carbery gave King Johns Castle a fantastic ride. Horse was hapered twice very badly and almost unseated jockey 3 out where a runner fell just infront of him. Fantastic ride by the jock. The winner didn't make a single mistake though and was always on the outside. They can try him over 6m next time :lol

[MartyMcG_1967]

Re: Grand National 2008 Just wanted to thank everybody for their contribution in here. I backed four horses today including the winner Comply or Die and Slim Pickings ew, mainly due to the reasoning in this thread. So thanks a lot:clap Also Woody, take a bow!:notworthy Enjoy your night mate, I know Bowlesy and some others landed ante-post big prices at Cheltenham so fair play. I'm a novice at horse racing but the high prices in ante-post betting certainly interests me, this looks a potentially very profitable market. Is there a reason why more people don't do this?

[mileni4uk]

Re: Grand National 2008

Is there a reason why more people don't do this?

1. Non-runners are losers and you don't take your stake back if the horse doesn't run. 2. You never know what might come in 2,3 months and picture changes drastically after every race. 3. You back a horse at 20/1 and it starts at evens as a hot fav and unseats a rider at the first fence. I would rather kill myself than have such a bet :lol

[MartyMcG_1967]

Re: Grand National 2008

1. Non-runners are losers and you don't take your stake back if the horse doesn't run. 2. You never know what might come in 2,3 months and picture changes drastically after every race. 3. You back a horse at 20/1 and it starts at evens as a hot fav and unseats a rider at the first fence. I would rather kill myself than have such a bet :lol

Yeah i know about the first one as i backed Psycho ante-post at Cheltenham and lost my stake as he changed races. Just thinking out loud anyway, cheers.

[Cassius Marcellus]

Re: Grand National 2008 Back in the 70s I burnt my fingers enough backing Vincent 'O' Brien horses ante-post that Lester should have ridden, only to see them pulled out of Group 1 races, and my money go down the drain.

[Carl]

Re: Grand National 2008

If he does squeeze in then I'll include him in my top 6. Currently just done my top 5 which inc's Cornish Rebel @ 200/1 :lol All the trends fit and the same was said of Philson Run last year @ 150/1. I do like the look of Nauton Brook @ 66/1 and when the others are thrown out we might see some big prices get chopped. From a win perspective I like the look of Comply or Die and Point Barrow.

I backed comply or die and got £145 back but the wife did a £3.00 bet and texted me just before the off saying if King Johns castle wins she stands to win £1300 but as it didnt she picked up £45. Had a really busy day but throughly enjoyed the whole day, even when Im explaining 50p e/w bets to people who have no idea how to do a bet and just come in with screwed up pieces of paper with names written down One bloke came in and put a £1.00 on EVERY runner :lol

[fintron]

Re: Grand National 2008 Well done to all that picked Comply or Die, especially those like Woody that got on months ago at great ante-post prices. I didn't get stuck into the racecard until Monday so the best I got on it was a mixture of 11/1 and 10/1 when I went back for more yesterday. Its the first time I picked the winner so I will certainly be using historical trends again next year. I ended up backing about ten different horses in the end, even some that fell short of one or two of the trends, but I doubled my outlay for that day with Comply or Die winning. All eyes will be on the Eider again next year won't they now its thrown up this winner and Philson Run placed last year.

[Penelopeys]

Re: Grand National 2008

I backed comply or die

Paul asked me to pick a horse off the list of names - and I picked Comply or Die :lol

[Cassius Marcellus]

Re: Grand National 2008

Had a really busy day but throughly enjoyed the whole day' date=' even when Im explaining 50p e/w bets to people who have no idea how to do a bet and just come in with screwed up pieces of paper with names written down [/quote'] You get used to it after a few years, mate. Even when the same people come back next year, with one of these three :- ' I don't bet.' 'I only do it once a year.' (make your own responses up to that) ' No idea what I'm doing.' (Coral may frown if you respond with ' get yer kit off.' If the birds are shaggable, you tell them they can take you out if they win. But if they don't, you'll take them out if you win. Sometimes they come back (Well, they used to when I was younger, they just laugh these days) :sad How long did the £50 bonus last ??? :loon

[Carl]

Re: Grand National 2008 :lol lasted about 10 mins. I finished at 5.30 while the shop closed at 6.30. It was about 7 when the rest of the 'team':lol join us by then I was well on my way to getting pissed. I did have this old dear with far too much money than sense, she said Im not too sure what to do or what to back so asked my opinion whilst filling out the easy slip she made a comment about my aftershave and then thanked me for my help. I asked her what she was staking, I thought she'd put a couple of quid on a few. She ended up doing £20 each way on two :lol and a few £2 bets on 10 others. If she was 75 younger I might have slipped her the tongue. I give her the wiiner also so may be she can leave her estate to me in her will:lol Tomorrow night me and my mate the manager are playing football against the area managers from Manchester. Nothing better than kicking shit out of stuck up fooking manc bosses who think they are better than us.

[Cassius Marcellus]

Re: Grand National 2008

:lol lasted about 10 mins. I finished at 5.30 while the shop closed at 6.30 :dude:rollin:rollin:dude If she was 75 younger I might have slipped her the tongue :clap:clap Tomorrow night me and my mate the manager are playing football against the area managers from Manchester. Nothing better than kicking shit out of stuck up fooking manc bosses who think they are better than us.

I'm sending off for an application form :ok and I fcuking hate football :loon

[manckevin]

Re: Grand National 2008

One bloke came in and put a £1.00 on EVERY runner :lol

Well at least he had the winner :rollin and had a 50/1 shot won, well he'd be the world's best advisor for the National. Roll on next year I say :) But it's Chester before that - can't wait :)