Grand National 2008

[Carl]

Re: Grand National 2008

1. Comply Or Die 12/1
2. Point Barrow 20/1
3. Joes Edge 40/1
4. Philson Run 33/1
5. Baily Breeze 66/1

Point Barrow P Hughes 10-13 Won the Irish National back in 2006 3m5f. Was Joint Fav for this last year and he's also entered for the Scottish National. Big Chance.	Philson Run Nick Williams 10-8 Our pick last year when placing 4th @ 150/1. He bit old according to the stats the last 12yr old to win was back in 2004 Amberleigh House. Trainer does well with long distance runners as he has won over 4mile on Sft and Hvy. "Philson Run has a nice racing weight, about the same as last year, and I think he's a better horse this time around."-Trainer
Comply Or Die D E Pipe 10-9 Won LTO at Newcastle over 4m1f on GS. Rejuvenated by blinkers when second to Cloudy Lane in testing ground at Haydock on his previous start. Massive chance.	Joes Edge Ferdy Murphy 10-7 Pulled up in last years National when sent off 8/1 co-fav. Has won the Scottish National and connections are hoping for a better run this year.
Baily Breeze M F Morris 10-11 Acts on various ground conditions but hasn't won over 3miles for 3years but he is lightly raced for his age. Connections ran away with the Powers Whiskey Irish National at Fairyhouse at odds of 33-1. Now trainer Mouse Morris is hoping that Baily Breeze will benefit from that boost in the John Smith’s Grand National. He won a chase at Galway in October, but it was his subsequent staying-on sixth in the three-mile Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown on December 27 that holds the best clue. He finished a length ahead of Hear the Echo, giving him 6lb. Excellent chance at a huge price. [url=http://www.farbets.co.uk/link.php?p=stanjames]	Ossmoses D M Forster 10-6 One of my fancies for last year but ended up a NR. He was a big gamble last year before being pulled out. He's not the fastest of my half-a-dozen horses, but he’s certainly the toughest. - Don Forster; This is a proper national hunt horse, who loves this testing ground.Has won at 3m4f on Hvy. 40/1

those are my fancies, last year I got Philson run @ 150/1 and McKelvey

[leics poshie]

Re: Grand National 2008 The Fact Cloudy Lane is now as short as 9/2 is just plain ridiculous and the price will put me off backing it, this is the grand national FFS. no horse should be shorter than 6/1 at the off

[fintron]

Re: Grand National 2008 I've used trends from these sites: http://www.grandnational.org.uk/trends.php, http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/ and also used trends from Carl and AK1979 on here (cheers for sharing info guys) and come up with a shortlist of six. Cloudy Lane - 11/2 Comply or Die - 11/1 Chelsea Harbour - 16/1 Point Barrow - 20/1 Dun Doire - 40/1 Naunton Brook - 66/1 Basically, I have omitted horses who....

• are carrying over 11st 5lbs,
• were not aged between 8-12
• had a handicap rating below 135
• had not won over 3 miles or more
• hadn't run in 10 chases
• hadn't won a chase worth at least £17,000
• placed in last years national
• were French bred
• hadn't raced within the last 42 days
• hadn't placed during the current season
• had not contested a national (whether it be in Eng, Ire, Scot, Wales etc) previously

Naunton Brook is the interesting one for me. Twiston-Davies won this race in 1998 and 2002 which works in its favour but against it, Brennan has opted to ride Fundamentalist instead. I know someone said to ignore horses that have pulled up in previous Grand Nationals, but as the trainer has won this twice before and because its odds are appealing I (rather conveniently) decided not to apply that trend. I had a win bet matched at 400/1 on Betfair and a place bet matched at 35/1 so for the sake of a few quid I'd rather back it than ignore it. Cloudy Lane ticks all the right boxes but with only 4 winning favourites in the last 37 runnings and the shortening odds of 11/2 the best on offer I think the only bet I'll be doing on Cloudy Lane is a little saver just to cover my stake on the long shots I'm hoping get placed. I'll probably back all seven of the above come race day even though I said to myself I'd try discipline myself to only a few bets this year.

[Football-Tipper]

Re: Grand National 2008 This has to be a cracking special @ VCBet

http://www.promo842.com/football_specials/images/top_left.gif height=17>	http://www.promo842.com/football_specials/images/top.gif height=17>	http://www.promo842.com/football_specials/images/top_right.gif height=17>
http://www.promo842.com/football_specials/images/sid_lef.gif>	National Free Fall … If your selection FALLS, we’ll refund your losing stake as a free bet ! Also applies to unseated rider, brought down, refused or slipped up. Maximum refund £50 per runner per person. Maximum total refund £300 per person. Applies to win and each way bets, singles only placed on telephone, internet or mobile. Applies to bets placed from Monday 31st March until the start of the race.

[Ronnie]

Re: Grand National 2008

This has to be a cracking special @ VCBet

		http://www.promo842.com/football_specials/images/top_right.gif" height="17" nowrap="nowrap" width="17">
	National Free Fall … If your selection FALLS, we’ll refund your losing stake as a free bet ! Also applies to unseated rider, brought down, refused or slipped up. Maximum refund £50 per runner per person. Maximum total refund £300 per person. Applies to win and each way bets, singles only placed on telephone, internet or mobile. Applies to bets placed from Monday 31st March until the start of the race.

Cracking offer, they'll get my money this year :ok

[Football-Tipper]

Re: Grand National 2008 Think also they match new punters with upto £50 with a free bet and a further £50 when you place other bets... LINK here

[fintron]

Re: Grand National 2008 Not a bad offer but how many places are they now paying out on? It was only 4 before. Bet 365, Paddypower, Boylesports and Stan James are all paying out on five places so if you're going for a long-shot to place then its probably better to go with one of the latter.

[Football-Tipper]

Re: Grand National 2008 EW 1/4 1-4 But if i was going for an outside id rather have the security of if it falls/pulls up/refuses/brought down rather than the extra place imo

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Grand National 2008 I live about 2 miles down the road from Aintree and the weather has been sunny today. However for the rest of the week we are expecting showers. My garden is currently flooded from the previous week or so rainfall and I can't understand how people are predicting the ground for the National to be good ground!!! Even allowing for good drainage I can't see it being no better than Soft. I am currently scouring the field for my probable 2 and they will be based on the ability to stay and handle soft ground.

[Aykay1]

Re: Grand National 2008 Jonesy, I dont know if he will get into the race but if he does, anf the ground is soft or worse, Ossmoses could be a lively outsider - all he wants is a trip and a bog.

[Carl]

Re: Grand National 2008 I agree AK , there was a big gamble on him last year but was rulled out with an injury but if conditions get worse and he starts then he could be a cracking shout at a price. 10/1 for a place. Thats if they run, looking at the top 50 weight wise you can get rid of the bottom 10 which includes Philson Run Joes Edge and Ossmoses :sad I might need to have a look at 3-4 others come Wednesday Thursday

[Carl]

Re: Grand National 2008 Right IF the last 10 get thrown out it incs Philson run, Ive re apllied all the stats and ended up with 5 runners. POINT BARROW* CORNISH REBEL BAILY BREEZE * NAUNTON BROOK COMPLY OR DIE * * My original picks and I might do a good E/W on those but no doubt back all 5 I still think Baily Breeze will run a blinder at a huge 66/1.

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Grand National 2008

I still think Baily Breeze will run a blinder at a huge 66/1.

i took 50's the other day:@ will be back in for 66/1:)

[Aykay1]

Re: Grand National 2008 Slim Pickings will be my main bet - has a similar profile to Hedgehunter in the sense that he tired over the final fence at his first attempt at the race. He should have strengthened between ages 8 and 9 and has been aimed at the race all year. 11 stone 3lb's looks fine with the bottom weight due to carry around 10stone 7.

[fintron]

Re: Grand National 2008

Right IF the last 10 get thrown out it incs Philson run, Ive re apllied all the stats and ended up with 5 runners. POINT BARROW* CORNISH REBEL BAILY BREEZE * NAUNTON BROOK COMPLY OR DIE * * My original picks and I might do a good E/W on those but no doubt back all 5 I still think Baily Breeze will run a blinder at a huge 66/1.

I've got Point Barrow, Naunton Brook and Comply or Die on my list too Carl. I thought we might have used similar trends (I used some of yours you posted up last week) but Cornish Rebel and Baily Breeze got crossed off my list because their OR was less than 135. I've been following Naunton Brook on Betfair and its been well backed over the past few days. I had 400.0 to win and 35.0 to place bets matched on Monday and those respective markets now have the animal at 109.0 and 22.0. A couple of the bookmakers have clipped it in now too - Betfred and Party Bets have it 33/1 although it is still widely available at 66/1 elsewhere.

[Carl]

Re: Grand National 2008 I dunno either to put £10 E/W on all or go dutch the lot for same returns? Probably the latter............

[welshman443]

Re: Grand National 2008 Stats Guide 16:15 Aintree, 5 Apr 2008 4m 4f John Smith's Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) Winner £516,949 2007 Winner: Silver Birch Trainer: Gordon Elliott Jockey: Robbie Power Age: 10; Weight: 10st 6lb Starting Price: 33/1 Season Form Figures: 8242 Best Previous Run: 2nd - Cross Country Handicap Chase, Cheltenham Every single winner since Gay Trip in 1970 had recorded at least one victory over three miles or further entering the Grand National so don’t believe that old chestnut that two-and-a-half milers are ideal Grand National horses. Only consider horses that have proven themselves at three miles or further. It would take an exceptional argument for me to consider a horse shouldering 11st 6lbs+ given that only Red Rum has managed this in the last half a century. If that isn’t an extraordinarily strong statistic then I don’t know what is. Moreover, I am sure you will agree that Red Rum was more than a bit special around here. Grand National runners may be getting younger but the fact still remains they struggle as no better proven by the fact that no winner has been aged younger than eight for 68 years. As for the last successful novice, we have to go back to 1958 but he was an eight-year-old. I like experience for the Grand National which is underlined by the fact that two-thirds of the last 18 winners were aged in double figures. In supplying the winner and third last season directly off the back of a 1-2-4 the previous season, the Irish have had an incredible run which now reads six victories in the last nine runnings. Take out Willie Mullins and five of those six Irish winners were trained by less-fashionable outfits. Nothing has altered my view that it surely must be an advantage to have an unhindered view with 39 horses galloping around you, many of which without jockeys in any direction they feel like with nowhere to run out at certain parts of the course and with a record of 1-146 since 1975, stats back that up. The only other post-war winner to don headgear was Foinavon and we all know how fortunate he was. Previous Aintree form was unimportant during the 1980s and 1990s but that has all changed of late with six of the last seven winners having experienced the big fences before. Generally speaking, the Grand National is a good race for punters considering how many line up. For 13 of the last 17 winners to start in the first eight in the betting in a 40-runner race is a better return than most would imagine for a handicap chase. Incredibly, we are just one year away from a whole century passing since a French-bred horse last won the Grand National. Whilst I accept they hardly had any runners for the first 90 years of that statistic, the last few years have been very different as they have supplied over 25% of the runners in the last seven renewals and still haven’t bagged the prize. At a glance summary: Positives: Aged ten or older Trained in Ireland Ran over the Grand National course before The first eight in the betting Negatives: Failed to win over at least three miles Aged seven or younger Wearing headgear Carrying 11st 6lbs or more French-breds

[Cassius Marcellus]

Re: Grand National 2008 Greys are negatives :tongue2

[TheRat]

Re: Grand National 2008 Got my list of 5 for this year now. Won for the first time ever last year so that's try and make it 2 on the trot! these are based on the trends and stats, all of which have been mentioned already, but from that my list they are (all EW); Point Barrow - 25/1 D'Argent - 33/1 Cloudy Lane - 11/2 Comply Or Die - 11/1 Butlers Cabin - 16/1

[leics poshie]

Re: Grand National 2008 Have gone for Comply or die to win @ 11/1 and Baily Breeze E/W @ 66/1

[galileorock]

Re: Grand National 2008 hello For me I will l'ami and kelami played, but that's normal I am French willhill= L'AMI @ 29.00 KELAMI @ 41.00

[Carl]

Re: Grand National 2008 Good luck in backing French horse as they haven't won in over 100 years but still first time for everything :ok Is it tomorrow that it gets whittled down to 40?

[fintron]

Re: Grand National 2008 Yeah, its tomorrow that they whittle them down. This was on an article on Sporting Life...... "The top 40 in the handicap following Thursday morning's 48-hour final declaration stage are guaranteed a run while the next four will be named as reserves. A reserve will be able to take the place of a horse declared a non-runner by 9.30am on Friday" Ollie Magern is lame and has been pulled out, meaning Philson Run has mustered his way in there now. I wish the National would come tomorrow, as every day passes I can't resist wacking a few more bets on here and there. Put a few more quid on Point Barrow today with Paddypower - who are refunding on fallers and paying out on 5 places. I'm still hoping Naunton Brook wins but past results suggest his odds are probably too high.

[Carl]

Re: Grand National 2008 If he does squeeze in then I'll include him in my top 6. Currently just done my top 5 which inc's Cornish Rebel @ 200/1 :lol All the trends fit and the same was said of Philson Run last year @ 150/1. I do like the look of Nauton Brook @ 66/1 and when the others are thrown out we might see some big prices get chopped. From a win perspective I like the look of Comply or Die and Point Barrow.

[downjag]

Re: Grand National 2008

i took 50's the other day:@ will be back in for 66/1:)

Available on Betfair @119/1 - don't know how much for though.

[manckevin]

Re: Grand National 2008 Well my six are (in order):

• Comply Or Die
• Butlers Cabin
• D'Argent
• Naunton Brook
• Slim Pickings
• Baily Breeze

Tricast should pay out handsomely ;) The remainder on my shortlist read: Cloudy Lane, Dun Doire, Cornish Rebel, Chelsea Harbour and Vodka Bleu. I'll probably have a small each-way on Cornish Rebel at that price (best odds now 150/1 from 200/1 on Monday night) with any of the firms paying five places. I won't be touching Cloudy Lane below 7/8-1. The 12th one is (was) Kelami. If that wins, the punters in Corals will get a shock on Saturday when I go bearing my arse out of their window :lol

[galileorock]

Re: Grand National 2008

Good luck in backing French horse as they haven't won in over 100 years but still first time for everything :ok Is it tomorrow that it gets whittled down to 40?

Thanks but it's going to come proof kauto star, master minded, voy por ustedes horses are coming from france and have won at home the greatest races So why not a horse French trained by a French ;);););););) PS: Caution,The same day in the JOHN SMITH'S MAGHULL NOVICES 'CHASE there is a horse I know well TAKEROC and I can tell you it is very good.

[TheJoker]

Re: Grand National 2008 There are some absolute set in stone stats that we must take heed of and allow us to narrow down the Grand National field before we consider form and going preferences of the runners.

Just one winner of the Grand National has never won at 3 miles or more so every horse you consider must have won over 3 miles plus.

Weight is obviously a big factor and the most weight carried to victory was Red Rum carrying 11-6. The way the weights are this year there is a fair chance we could get an 11 stone winner so I am going to rule out anything above 11-2 as nothing in the last 20 years has managed that feat.

Horses don’t win the Grand National if they younger than 8 or older than 12 but most winners are 9,10 or 11. I will allow horses that are 8 to 12 but extra credit is given to the 9, 10 and 11 year olds.

Horses need to have had between 4-6 runs in the season if the stats are to be believed so lightly/heavily trained horses need to be ruled out.

Every winner has had a run within the last 50 days so the rusty horses are ruled out.

Although most horses are given a fairly light prep race before the big one they must at least run respectably in that so we can rule out anything that didn’t finish in the first seven on their latest run.

I have entered these stats into http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-form.php which gives me the following horses:

Cloudy Lane Comply Or Die Snowy Morning D’argent L’ami Kelami Idle Talk

I think the winner will definitely come from that list.

Idle Talk’s win over 3m+ was in poor company and £17,000 is usually the cut off point for smallest chase win so we can rule that one out.

Let’s look at who is left

Cloudy Lane

Deserves to be favourite and is obviously well in at the weights having won twice since the weights came out. Stamina has to be taken on trust as he has failed both times he has run over marathon distances but there were excuses at Fairyhouse last season as he was considered over the top by then. Decent jumper and possible winner but 5/1 is extremely short and in my opinion he is unbackable because of that price. Comply Or Die

Won by a wide margin over a trip within three furlongs of the Grand National trip so certainly has the stamina for this. He is a classy individual who has had problems (was pulled up in three of six starts) but he seems back to his best and because of those problems we probably still haven’t seen the best of him. Has only fallen once in his career but yet to face fences like this, he is a very likely winner if getting a clear round, looks highly promising. Only negative is poor record of horses in the National when wearing headgear.

Snowy Morning

Has won over 3m but doesn’t look like a great stayer and although possibly well handicapped he has disappointed on his most recent start when a beaten odds on favourite and probably likes the ground softer. Can’t have it and will be surprised if it places.

D’Argent

Has plenty of stamina and seems to go on any ground. He is a decent jumper but four of his five chase wins have come at Warwick so maybe he just prefers it there and doesn’t look fantastically handicapped. Another with the head gear on too.

L’Ami

Stayed on well recently at Cheltenham and completed the race last year but was well beaten. Carries less weight this time and will probably get round but doesn’t quite stay this trip. Will probably come about 7^th or 8^th.

Kelami

Another who ran in the race last year (pulled up) but still retains plenty of ability and a marathon trip on goodish ground would suit. Hard to win with but a decent bet to place at the price.

Grand National Bets

I think Comply or Die is going to take all the beating and the only negative is the wearing of blinkers. I will be having a decent sized bet on Comply or Die and also a place interest in Kelami.

Away from the stats I will also be backing Slim Pickings to place as he came third in the race last year and has been trained for this all season. Should be able to bag a place at ok place odds.

[Carl]

Re: Grand National 2008 interesting that you have come up with 2 french horses? Not one to put you off but I didnt come up with those after the filters. Snowy morning may a touch too high in the weights I think people will steam into Comply or Die now after Pipes/Murphy result today. GL :hope

[Carl]

Re: Grand National 2008

1		99-P572	Hedgehunter (IRE) 42	12	11-12	W P Mullins	R Walsh	153		SP SP SP
2		625142	Hi Cloy (IRE) 12	11	11-12	M Hourigan	T Doyle	153		SP SP SP
3		135P16	Knowhere (IRE) 22	10	11-11	N A Twiston-Davies	J Tizzard	152		SP SP SP
4		122-416	Mr Pointment (IRE) 35	9	11-11	P F Nicholls	S Thomas	152		SP SP SP
5		7P-P123	Turko (FR) 23	6	11-10 t	P F Nicholls	R Johnson	151		SP SP SP
6		73-4425	Madison Du Berlais (FR) 70	7	11-9	D Pipe	T Scudamore	150		SP SP SP
7		1F-52U4	Simon 42	9	11-7	J L Spearing	D Elsworth	148		SP SP SP
8		1120-1P	Opera Mundi (FR) 70	6	11-6	P F Nicholls	L Heard	147		SP SP SP
9		16F5PP	Iron Man (FR) 22	7	11-5 p	P Bowen	Christian Williams	146		SP SP SP
10		412183	Fundamentalist (IRE) 23	10	11-4 t	N A Twiston-Davies	P J Brennan	145		SP SP SP
11		011-373	Butler's Cabin (FR) 49	8	11-3 p	Jonjo O'Neill	A P McCoy	144		SP SP SP
12		53-62S5	Slim Pickings (IRE) 34	9	11-3	T J Taaffe	B J Geraghty	144		SP SP SP
13		3F6514	Chelsea Harbour (IRE) 34	8	11-2	Thomas Mullins		143		SP SP SP
14		0-01105	Vodka Bleu (FR) 49	9	11-2 b	D Pipe	Paul Moloney	143		SP SP SP
15		0-63003	L'ami (FR) 25	9	11-1 p	F Doumen	M A Fitzgerald	142		SP SP SP
16		4-F1133	Snowy Morning (IRE) 42	8	11-1	W P Mullins	D J Casey	142		SP SP SP
17		429F-2P	Bewleys Berry (IRE) 49	10	11-0	J Howard Johnson	Denis O'regan	141		SP SP SP
18		0459-0P	Contraband 22	10	11-0	Paul Murphy	K Mercer	141		SP SP SP
19		7612-80	Mckelvey (IRE) 21	9	11-0 p	P Bowen	T J O'brien	141		SP SP SP
20		P-20037	Joaaci (IRE) 98	8	10-13 b1	D Pipe	J W Farrelly	140		SP SP SP
21		080403	Point Barrow (IRE) 19	10	10-13 b	P Hughes	A Dobbin	140		SP SP SP
22		P2-P014	D'Argent (IRE) 49	11	10-12 b	A King	R Thornton	139		SP SP SP
23		0-434P2	No Full (FR) 7	7	10-12	Eoin Doyle	J R Barry	139		SP SP SP
24		F176P0	Baily Breeze (IRE) 34	9	10-11	M F Morris	P W Flood	138		SP SP SP
25		22-360P	Bob Hall (IRE) 25	7	10-11	Jonjo O'Neill	N Fehily	138		SP SP SP
26		1U-5111	Cloudy Lane 35	8	10-11	D McCain Jnr	J M Maguire	138		SP SP SP
27		2P-2221	King Johns Castle (IRE) 27	9	10-11	A L T Moore	P Carberry	138		SP SP SP
28		434-P36	Mon Mome (FR) 25	8	10-11	Miss V Williams	A Coleman	138		SP SP SP
29		726-2P8	Cornish Sett (IRE) 100	9	10-10	P F Nicholls	Mr N Scholfield	137		SP SP SP
30		104329	Naunton Brook 21	9	10-10 t	N A Twiston-Davies	David England	137		SP SP SP
31		4-57626	Tumbling Dice (IRE) 41	9	10-10 b	T J Taaffe	T G M Ryan	137		SP SP SP
32		P24/0-14	Backbeat (IRE) 62	11	10-9	J Howard Johnson	K Renwick	136		SP SP SP
33		4P/0P21	Comply Or Die (IRE) 42	9	10-9 b	D Pipe	T J Murphy	136		SP SP SP
34		28U575	Idle Talk (IRE) 23	9	10-9 p	D McCain Jnr	B Harding	136		SP SP SP
35		4398F2	Kelami (FR) 42	10	10-9	F Doumen	F Keniry	136		SP SP SP
36		385-547	Milan Deux Mille (FR) 35	6	10-9 t1	D Pipe	T J Malone	136		SP SP SP
37		F-713P7	Nadover (FR) 17	7	10-9 p1	C J Mann	R M Power	136		SP SP SP
38		564420	Black Apalachi (IRE) 34	9	10-8 v1	D T Hughes	A J Mcnamara	135		SP SP SP
39		P6/84-2B	Philson Run (IRE) 49	12	10-8	Nick Williams	D Jacob	135		SP SP SP
40		51P-062	Dun Doire (IRE) 19	9	10-7 b1	A J Martin	R McGrath	134		SP SP SP
41		166P0P	Ardaghey (IRE) 23	9	10-7 t	N A Twiston-Davies	David England	134		SP SP SP
42		781P-U0	Joes Edge (IRE) 23	11	10-7 p	Ferdy Murphy	T J Dreaper	134		SP SP SP
43		638371	In The High Grass (IRE) 14	7	10-6 b	T J Taaffe		133		SP SP SP
44		12/452-6	Ossmoses (IRE) 35	11	10-6	D M Forster	R McGrath	133

If all goes to plan the bottom 4 will be taken out leaving 40 runners