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WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008


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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 12.55 Barton Legend 6/1 2.00 Dune Raider 5/1 2.40 Thievery 9/2 Kemp 1.55 Harchibald 8/11 2.30 Kauto Star 5/6 3.05 Benetwood 11/4 Leop 1.20 Temlett 3/1 2.25 Perce Rock 11/8 Lim 1.10 Cooldine 2/1 1.40 Lounaos 5/6 2.15 Finger on the Pulse 11/2 Sedge 2.10 Ryminster 5/1 Tow 12.50 The Package 2/1 1.55 Seven is Lucky 11/4 Weth 1.35 Silver Knight 16/1 Win 2.15 Coach Lane 3/1 Brave Villa 15/2 2.45 Pimbury 11/1.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Staked 2487.8 pts Returned 2718.935 pts P/L +231.135 Strike rate 36.55% (72/197) Lots of selections yesterday and not that successful as down around 100 on the day so possibly just a few to many. Saying that, I've not learned my lesson as putting up lots more today. Still the overall picture positive which is encoraging especially given that as I said this is more an experience for a newish punter at the minute and into the new year I will start to become a bit more measured, controlled and even specialist.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 May add to this esp. in Voy Por race depending on e.w price of others if available. Chep 12.20 Mark the Book 15 pts Made a fair deal over this ones chasing career debut lto and it went at the first so that does not tell me much. On hurdle form a very good prospect and has taken to the demands of CD before here and no surprise as it is looks a stayer. Hopefully a clear round today will tell us more as I have had a bit of a speculative 33/1 for RSA. Trainer for sure very positive about this ones future. 2.05 Dream Alliance 8/1 6 pts e.w Started to frustrate and genuinely disappoint last year having been thought of highly but that changed with a thrasing at Perth. Then ran a cracker to be second to Denman in the Hennessy under a positive ride and showing enough stamina to if not catch the mighty Denman then hold on well enough for second. Ground favorable too and ahead of the handicapper. Not Left Yet 17/2 7 pts e.w Out of the handicap technically but realistically it might not be for long. Very much a dark horse who seems quite unexposed over fences. Won a hurdle prep as I put up on the thread and saw it out well that day. Lowly weighted, Murphy interestingly favours this one ahead of Over the Creek and a lot more to come form this one. L'Aventure 33/1 4 pts e.w Former winner who might not be terribly handicapped now. Low enough in the weights, stays very well, recent form a concern but slightly softer ground should help, did produce a late run in a similar stamina test at Haydock earlier in the year so some newish form and worth a bit at a big price e.w at least. 3.50 Kingston Lane 15 pts Impressed with this ones bumper win on first start over CD. Led all the way and held of challengers impressively and bravely. The trainer/jockey does very well with bumper horses and this one could be another. Kemp 12.40 Hibiki 10 pts Ok performer on the flat, nothing special but won races and proved adaptable on todays conditions. On hurdling debut a decent second on heavy ground. Should come on loads for that run plus should appreciate the less demanding ground. 1.50 Eden Linty 15 pts Improved an awful lot this season and despite penalties, higher marks and more weight it has continued to win against decent fields often travelling with style before going onto success. Definitely the one to beat and if maintaining such form will be tough to beat. 2.55 Bible Lord 10 pts Progessive chaser last season and notched up string of victories once it got going which the trainer said took a while as this one can need a run or two. Similar story this year in that it may have needed first run before a respectable run in the Hennessy when for at least a while it was one of the few who travelled behind Denman and this is more realistic. Umbrella Man 5 pts e.w Slightly speculative but on form of last year very capable, suggested it wanted further lto and gets weight pull from that run and should be more sharper for that run today. Leop 12.55 Sophocles 10 pts Second in Cheltenham bumper when staying on big time and although beaten on hurdle debut ran with creddit when second, should come on a lot and form of that race not too bad. 2.00 Cork All Star 15 pts I like Aranleigh a chief danger a lot but at this trip I favour Cork All Star a lot more. AP's mount looks more a stayer and 2m might find it get a bit outpaced, a worry I do not have with Cork All Star. Obvious bumper form, it has not taken to hurdles like a natural but still has a good first win and a decent second lto when a mistake towards the end was crucial. 2.35 Chelsea Harbour 20/1 e.w 5 places 5 pts e.w Much raced this year and sometimes out of his depth such as RSA but it often seems to stay on bravely enough like lto for example suggesting a trip like today is favourable and e.w shout for sure. Heads on the Ground 25/1 5 pts e.w Out of the handicap and hard to put into context what its very good cross country form represents but 25/1 seems a bit big to me with such a low weight and the fact that at least it is in form and cross country horses often stay well. 3.10 Offshore Account 15 pts Very attractively handicapped here over hurdles if it chase form is anything to go by. Very progressive last year as a novice and won a Grade 1 even if slightly lucky against Aces Four. Though good enough to be in the Betfair Chase and could be very well in here. Weth 12.20 All for the Cause 10 pts It does have more weight than many others due to its previous wins and with many below unknown quantities there is a risk here but impressive lto imo. I fancied Berwick Law to beat it after its very encouraging first hurdle run but All for the Cause dug in well and will improve for that.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 12.20 Mark the Book SP 2.05 Dream Alliance 8/1 Not Left Yet 17/2 7 pts L'Aventure 33/1 3.50 Kingston Lane SP. Kemp 12.40 Hibiki 13/8 1.50 Eden Linty 2/1 2.55 Bible Lord 7/2 Umbrella Man 33/15 pts e.w Leop 12.55 Sophocles 7/4 2.00 Cork All Star 6/4 2.35 Chelsea Harbour 20/1 Heads on the Ground 25/1 3.10 Offshore Account 11/4 Weth 12.20 All for the Cause 10/3

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Staked 2666.8 pts Returned 2783.935 pts P/L +117.135 Strike rate 34.91% (74/212) Bad day again. Gung ho approach not paying off with a few unlucky seconds and thirds but some disappointments and two winners 'only'. Still the good run in early December means still in profit. Will post for tomorrow shortly.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Catt 12.50 L'Oiseau De Feu 15/2 7.5 pts e.w This is not that good a race so the odd hint at form needs to be respected and that is what this one has done on the flat at a lowly level and over hurdles including a second a few starts back and a fourth lto. It made late ground that day suggesting maybe it wants further shortly but I will give it a go e.w today at least. 2.20 Cedrus Libani 2/5 Short but I can see why it is short. It was a fair hurdler, good enough to be in the Supreme Novices however it looks a much better chaser. The win over Modicum and Benetwood is decent form, indeed Modicum is one of the only horses to trouble Hobbs Hill this year as this thread knows from the first page and that link of form stands up. It then won a two runner affair which tells us little but it held off Twiston Davies' horse well that day when being just behind the leader in a two horse race is often the place to be. Can win again today. Leic 1.00 Orphelin Collonges 15 pts Only one Eng. run but an impressive one for a long way before falling late when in with a chance. At the time it looked a decent race and the form has been boosted by some down the field that day including a notable winner of a strong event at Towcester. AP on board for the Exotic Dancer colours. Leop 2.35 Denman 1/2 A clear round and it should win imo. Top class horse, so impressive in RSA and Hennessy. Form of Hennessy not looking too strong so far but even still the style of its win was superb esp. considering it was not fancied. Potential rivals today need it softer imo and the main rival The Listener might not stay 3m fully. 3.10 Deutchland 9/2 7.5 pts e.w Had fair form last year at times for a trainer in Mullins who often does well with these types. It made an encoraging re appearance when second to the useful Jayo and stablemate and was even in the Ladbroke hurdle at one point. Could be an e.w steal. Denman and Cebrus Libani in a 15 pt double.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Leop 12.55 Jayo 6/4 15 pts This one started last season very promisingly and was even talked of as a Triumph hurdle horse, after that it faltered somewhat but it won well lto against a decentish field and could well go in again today. It looks more mature this year with less clattering of hurdles and could just be one that progresses quickly. 1.25 Wins Now 5/2 15 pts Chase debut for this one and an eagerly anticipated one. Good hurdle form, decent run in the Supreme and very good run at Aintree when nearly beat Tidal Bay, was in for a real shout if not for the last that is for sure. Do not know of chasing ability but very interesting AP is here. 1.55 Clopf 12/1 5 pts e.w Has disappointed a bit this year. Its novice form last year means I see it as a CH likely winner but for whatever reason it has not gone on. It travels in its races superbly, look at Newcastle lto when it travelled like Harchibald but faded terribly and eased down. Has it to prove now but the way it travels I cant give up hope. 2.25 Grangeclare Lark 11/10 15 pts Very decent this one. Has recorded stacks of victories in events similar to this one and also has proved adaptable on the ground. Earlier it looked to need soft ground but has now won on good ground and must have a stand out chance today. Newb 12.30 Oceanos des Obeaux 5/1 6 pts e.w Looks a very good race and this one perhaps is the one that may have slipped under the radar. A decent hurdler and I put it up here in some of the threads it just fell away and perhaps needed to go chasing, that is just what happened and it won impressively lto and conditions today no problem. If one of the big 2 slips up this one can pounce. 1.35 Air Force Run SP 15 pts Very promising as hurdler last year including second at Cheltenham. Disappointing on chase start but it may have needed it and the trainer was in poor form then compared to now. The weight it gets from the Nicholls horse gives this a great chance 2.05 Hells Bay 9/2 (unusually 4 places) 7.5 pts e.w Won a bumper early on and then was just beaten in a tight novice hurdle and ended up third. It does have to give weight to the two at the bottom but e.w it could be a steal and if you were being cynical, Helen Vision win lto was made a lot easier by other riders. 2.40 Razor Royale 11/2 6 pts e.w Impressed with this one on hurdle debut when it hacked up and impressed with the way it travelled lto where it looked to be going very well. Did not stay it out that day so drop back in trip could well suit and e.w claims for sure.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Staked 2790.8 pts Returned 2925.69 pts P/L +134.885 Strike rate 34.98% (78/223) A non runner today and 'only' one winner. However a slight change yesterday as I had a winner I thought I never had. Sorry that many of the selections today lost but quite simply they were not good enough and that happens. That is what makes you appreciate the winners. I will look at the thread more closely in the new year to help improve my raw punting and will appreciate any comments.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Woody there are 2 ways to go, keep the same system, you are showing a profit after all. OR analyse where you have the most winners, courses, type of races, SP's favs etc etc. You may just find something. The fewer the bets sometimes helps. Also, look at your ew returns are they worht it or not? if not, then go win on all selections. Is it worth having a level stake for each bet as i see you sometimes change it. I do check your thread daily & really hope you do continue with this as the amount of winners you have is great.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Woody, Firstly, you've put a lot of effort into these bets so well done for that. However, I must agree with Bowlesy. You need to look at specialisation a bit more if you want to make long term profit. I often have 'fancies' in novice hurdles, maidens, etc but have learnt not to go near because, in the long run, I'll end up losing. Also, you need to look at possibly pruning the amount of selections. Risking 200pts in one day where your average bet per selection is around 10pts is one hell of a chance you're taking. Great if it comes off but is it really worth it? These are just my thoughts, mate. I'm not trying to be critical as you have clearly picked some very good winners. It's what PL is all about, sharing opinions. Good luck for 2008.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Thanks very much for the advice and I will have a look at my winners (types of races, prices etc.) As I say I am a naive and raw punter and a bit of a novice so I need to develop my punting. Slight change in what my stakes are though, correction from Sat. Staked 2790.8 pts Returned 2941.6275pts P/L +150.8275 Strike rate 35.43% (79/223)

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 One today 12.30 Uttox Quickbeam SP 15 pts. The key here is the run lto on its hurdles debut. It finished second that day but it travelled so impressively considering it was on debut and was arguably a touch unlucky at the last. I felt at the time that was a decent race and there is evidence to sugggest it is certainly was by winners down the field in decent races against fellow promising/potentially useful types. Unfortunately I napped the AP horse (who fell when also bang there in that race) next time and that simply was not good enough lto and does provide a slight mixed message abut the form. If Quickbeam travels anything like it did lto today, it will be very short in running and could well go very close.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Staked 2805.8 pts Returned 2941.6275pts P/L +135.8275 Strike rate 35.27% (79/224) Have started an excel table on all my 224 selections so far and will report back and then evaluate further when I have finished with some stats on types of races I am winning and losing on, odds of selections that win and lose, how e.w bets are doing, how win bets are doing, success at any particular track and for any particular trainer etc.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 For the next few days though I will continue as we were which so far has not been a disaster: Chelt 1.00 An Accordian 10 pts Backed this in first start of the season when Pipe's were in awful form and my early excel work shows that as I backed about 7 in a week and they all seemed to lose and most convincingly! First bumper start showed talent when second to cork all star. Then catipalted to fences and showed more talent with the odd useful win last year showing softer ground no problem in fact probably a positive. Surely better than that last run. Trip a slight doubt as unproven but negatives about a few of these for me, Parsons Legacy for one, who I frequently back, seems to sulk in its races only to frustratingly run on at the end and may want it quicker. 2.10 Kalca Mome 6 pts e.w Could be a bit overpriced here when I find prices in morning. A real solid campaigner for so long and despite career high mark it arguably deserves it. Got weight earlier this year from VPU but beat it here and then run a very respectable race staying on interestingly on ground supposedly too quick. Normally todays distance would be too far but that run suggests that perhaps it does want an increased trip and softer ground today should help, e.w chance at least. 3.20 Blazing Bailey 7.5 pts e.w i admire this horse and still believe it is not out of the WH picture especially on last years form but at the moment it has something to prove but then again does virtually the whole field today. First run this year very poor but the second not as bad as perhaps made out. Given a soft lead it was going pretty well, admittedly the race really just unfolding, it made a terrible mistake ending all real chance taking away valuable momentum. It needs to jump better but not out of this at all and definite chances of being in the two. Drop back in trip not a problem for me at this track and softer ground ok. 3.55 Cricket Boy 10 pts Absolutely smashed into lto at the rail when it looked to still have a very good chance. Very nice breeding, that was a very good run until then on ground maybe a bit too soft and weakness in betting that day indicated that. Should go close today and Weather Front 5 pts e.w at a bigger price. A slight disappointment when fancied to win on debut it made up for that with success next time and consequently weighted higher than second who re opposes but set to go off a considerably bigger price than that one and should not be ignored with the Pipe horse. Catt 1.55 Shouldhavehadthat 6 pts e.w One that I have followed in the thread and not with too much success and questions do remain but it has shown that it perhaps was a bit one paced at a smaller trip and this staying distance looks more its cup of tea. LTO it got that increased trip and was running ok before a somewhat unfortunate fall. Worth another chance. 2.30 Rapscallion 15 pts Very impressive two starts ago when it routed Williams' horse and the rest by a long way and that Williams horse has gone out since and won and looks decent so for this one to thrash it so comprehensively speaks volumes. LTO it was unlucky to be carried out when surely at least second and with every chance of a win. It has risen but could well be capable of defying it. Exe 12.40 Lodge Lane 15 pts. There are some unknowns in this race and with the extra weight this one could find it hard but talent wise this one has it in very raw amounts. Cheltenham bumper run was very wild and it ran so much further then many others yet was midfield following good runs in seemingly preferable softer conditions. Hurdle debut showed more promise when it won possible a shade somfortably on ground it may have not liked too much. Softer ground today should help and could defy weight it carries over others including CForrest Pennant. 2.25 Saunders Road 10 pts A decent hurdler and won over fences lto. Tbh lto I never thought it was going to win. It was being scrubbed along for a long time and was a long way back before staying on strongly to win possibly fortunately. It struggled to go with the early pace that day and an increased trip should be a huge bonus today considering the style of the Bangor run. 4.05 Sassanias 15 pts Gets into the bumper with less weight and despite unknown quantity about much of the field, this one has shaped with lots of promise when fancied on debut bumper race that I reckon was a good race (see Lady Cricket) Just second when further over from the scramble on the near side it showed a fair level of ability, should improve, stable doing well in bumpers and handy weight.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008

An Accordian 9/2Kalca Mome 20/1 Blazing Bailey 7/1 Cricket Boy 5/1 change to 7.5 pts e.w Weather Front 20/1 Shouldhavehadthat 23/5 Rapscallion 11/8 Lodge Lane 6/4 Saunders Road 6/1 7.5 pts e.w Sassanias 10/11
Hi Mate, Please could you post up which bookie each price is:ok Cheers.
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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008

3.20 Blazing Bailey 7.5 pts e.w i admire this horse and still believe it is not out of the WH picture especially on last years form but at the moment it has something to prove but then again does virtually the whole field today. First run this year very poor but the second not as bad as perhaps made out. Given a soft lead it was going pretty well, admittedly the race really just unfolding, it made a terrible mistake ending all real chance taking away valuable momentum. It needs to jump better but not out of this at all and definite chances of being in the two. Drop back in trip not a problem for me at this track and softer ground ok.
Well done Woody:clap
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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Excellant work Woody.:clap:clap It is obvious you have a good understanding of the form book. All your tips are well researched. Like me, you seem to lose quite a bit after a big win. Over confidence? May be we should remember winnings are our money, well earnt. Not a loan to give back to the bookmaker. Russ and Bowles picked up on possibly too many bets at times and if each way bets are profitable, you could lose all that profit in one day. So be careful. But over all you are doing great so don't change too much, may be good enough for an oscar. :clap Hope 08 brings more winners for you Woody. Ginge

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Will put up prices later tomorrow along with bookies price and complete confirmation as to what each bet is. Chep 1.20 Carrick Oscar 15 pts win Interesting runner on return from injury. Only one run so far at Towc. and won comfortably and looked a stayer, trainer comments afterwards indicated as such and it dealt with soft ground that day well. The fact it dealt with Towc. suggests to me it can deal with Chepstow. However the interesting part for me is the form of that race. It beat Mark the Book who went onto win over hurdles twice after and could be a very very good chaser eventually, the third has won lots of time since and despite a hefty enough mark on paper, there is a claimer on board, it is unexposed and trainer in decent enough form. 1.55 Desert Tommy 5 pts e.w This one is based more on hurdle ability than actual chase ability shown so far although its first run was not really that bad. Over hurdles it was no superstar but decent enough, it won races and the festival run showed to me that it was more of a staying type. Often seemingly unable to carry on with early pace, it plugged on for a respectable sixth. Should appreciate the distance, seems adaptable enough on different kinds of ground and if it could bring some of its hurdle form out over fences, and that is the question, it is not out of this. San 2.40 Breedsbreeze 15 pts win I think the key here is the likely soft ground. Whereas some other promising types have the odd question about the ground and also possibly stamina in these conditions, this one has shown so far to be useful in these conditions in particular the run lto behind Ring the Boss who in soft conditions was unbeatable so far this season. I fancied it e.w that day on the back of Lewis' comments after the Chep. win which was impressive imo and he said he could not wait for it on softer ground, gets a chance again today on such surface. 3.45 Chief Yeoman 14.5 win Betf 5 pts, 4.7 place 5 pts Decent flat form and goodish hurdle form (second in a TH.) Chasing form not so far spectacular but has recorded the odd win including soft ground, the run in the Jewson I thought was unlucky, travelling well before being hampered, the only other horse I saw thravelling like it was L'Antartique the winner, it fell in the end. Ran second lto but doing all its best work at the end, staying on so although trip a question mark, there is some hope it could get it. Patricksninteenth 5 pts e.w. On old form very well handicapped and starting to show that of late. Will only run with further rain but i expect it will and will appreciate surface. Has some doubts over the trip but it has been finishing races strongly of late at slightly shorter distances and suggesting imo that an increased trip should not cause too many problems. Trainer in decent form.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Staked 2977.8 pts Returned 3112.2525pts P/L +134.4525 Strike rate 35.02% (83/237) Note non runner, possibly only frusrtration was that Carrick Oscar drifted to a fair e.w price (13/2) and of course was placed, still cant win them all.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Plump 12.55 Kavaloti 15 pts Put this up at big prices on earlier starts and in truth disappointing on two hurdle outings. However Moore is a very useful trainer and normally does well with these types (some ability on the flat if not exceptional ability,) blinkers are on today and the main point is that this is much more realsitic, not sure there are world beaters in this, a positive too imo that Moore on board, I would have thought he would have had the choice. Naas 1.15 Dark Artist 7.5 pts e.w Meade is not banging in winners left right and centre at the moment but this one has a real chance today imo. A smallish field there is evert chance this one will try to make all if possible. It certainly was effective when beating Albanov earlier this season with the talented Scotsirish third (a horse who need further over fences imo and ould be very useful.) It then made an attempt to make all lto and ran well, second in the end but useful types in behind and it was beaten by Perce Rock who despite falling subsequently is a real Arkle hope this year possibly. That is decent form, it is adaptable on different surfaces and should go well. Will be interesting to see if the Mullins horse takes it on for the lead but chances being in the two in a smallish field. 1.45 Woodbine Willie 15 pts Not easy to say completely what the form of novice races is but at this stage of the season we are getting a better idea and this one looks useful for sure. Adaptable on different surfaces seemingly, soft ground no problem, it had a good level of bumper form, second at Punch. fest a notable run and decent form already appearing at hurdel level. Three wins, dh lto, it looked raw that day so improvement should be expected but it bundled over some hurdles including the last and yet still dh with the talented Aranleigh who over more staying type distances over hurdles is very decent. Good chance. 2.45 Temlett 15 pts Mullins in top form and this one could be one of his better prospects. On the flat it showed definite ability, ulster derby winner but with Mullins training a future jumps career was most probably always in the pipline and bookies reacting to obvious talent have it high enough in TH betting. Two starts over hurdle to talk of, lto slightly disappointing perhaps but it was a Grade 1, this is a maiden hurdle, first start it ran well, third but hurdled well enough and given 'easy' time. Should go close for me with trainer in form and ground should not be a real problem.

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