WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Staked 5602.3 pts Returned 5444.37pts P/L -157.93 Strike rate 33.41% (141/422) Both second, just need a winner or two today before Cheltenham. Ayr 4.35 Berwick Law 7.5 pts e.w if poss. Followed this one a fair bit after real eyecatching run first up over hurdles but not done it since really, ran into second once but not progressed as thought and fell lto when defeated. However the trip increases again and I do believe that will help, has lots of stamina from bumper days in testing ground and chance taking can start to fulfill potential today. San 2.05 Forest Pennant 7.5 pts e.w On bookings not first choice for PN but the claim of 7 pounds makes this more attractive and improved with two wins on each of its last two starts, win lto not as impressive but still did win and more likely to be suited by stronger pace in a race like this, unproven on good ground to an extent but has won on good to soft so not a complete no hoper as far as that is concerned. Wind Instrument 7.5 pts e.w Was beaten by Forest Pennant a couple of starts back and with claim on that one not as well treated as it may have been in comparison. However having bumped into a few and been a bit outclassed was fairly impressive lto when winning over further and the well beaten fourth that day has since won, should be doing best work at the end if not slightly outpaced early on evidence of last win. 3.15 Ashkazar 15 pts Good on the flat, was running n Group 2s at Royal Ascot and so impressive on hurdle debut, cruised into the race and pulled clear, did not do it really behind Franchoek but bounced back to form with easy enough success lto on C&D and third boosted that since with second in Garde 2, lots of possible improvement left and hugely respected with pipe's record in the race.Mon michel 7.5 pts e.w Moore does so well in these handicap hurdles and this oen was more fancied than eventual winner, Wingman for a similarish event at Newbury lto before a late withdrawl. Maybe better on softer but can go on good or at least has ran ok on it before. Risen in handicap but thats no surprise given its progressive form and an e.w alternative.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Berwick Law 4/1 Betfr just 15pt win Forest Pennant 12/1 var Wind Instrument 11/1 var Ashkazar 11/4 var Mon Michel 9/1 PP 5 places

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Staked 5662.3 pts Returned 5530.62pts P/L -131.68 Strike rate 33.56% (143/426) Profit for the day even though Ashkazar ended up a much bigger price than I put up, chould have gone bog.

[bowles10]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 well done today mate. :clap

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008

well done today mate. :clap

Thanks. Just doing the one tomorrow before Chelt. so will do a lot next week along with the ante post bets I already have, some looking value others less so: Naas 5.40 Bantry Commons 15 pts. This one caught my lto on its bumper debut. 1) because it was heavily backed all day and on course into favoritism suggesting it must have soem ability and 2) because it made eye catching enough progress into second without the clearest runs in similar conditions to what it should be tomorrow. Difficult to assess the form but the sixth has come out and won since and I have no idea what some of these in here are capable of, most of these have not run but to this one looked a smart enough prospect lto and with the benefit of that experience should go close.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Last one was a n/r. So Cheletenham ahead, lot of ante post bets already see below. Will slightly up the stakes this week, difficult competitive races but hopeful of a few winners. Some info on races or on the Cheltenham section of the forum. Ante post bets for Chelt (some bigger stakes for some of these than I first thought and on reflection a slightly naive staking plan at times): Snap Tie supreme 25/1 7.5 pts e.w Clopf Arkle 16/1 12 pts e.w Modicum Arkle 100/1 5 pts e.w NRNB (stakes back) Clopf CH 25/1 20 pts e.w (OUT) Macs Joy CH 20/1 20 pts e.w (DEAD:sad) De Valira CH 50/1 5 pts e.w (OUT) Aigle D'or Ballymore 12/1 15 pts e.w Mark the Book RSAC 33/1 7.5 pts e.w (OUT) Blazing Bailey WH 14/1 25 pts e.w Which means if I include the ante post bets as runners except NRNB ones, that have already lost. Staked 5767.3 pts Returned 5530.62pts P/L -236.68 Strike rate 33.26% (143/430)

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Chelt 2.00 Snap Tie 25/1 7.5 pts e.w ante post but will add 5 pts to place @ 4/1 pp due to 4 places Murihead 15/2 Bet3 BOG 12 pts e.w 4 places Khyber Kim 17/2 Bet3 12 pts e.w 4 places. Snap Tie I have backed all year and looks one of Hobbs' best this week and he is in cracking form which is a real plus. Decent bumper form and brings solid enough handicap form at the track which he goes well on which is a real positive. Needs to improve but quite possibly well capable of, has had a break but that may be a positive as goes well fresh, only slight negative is ground might not be quite as quick as it wants. Khyber Kim was quite classy on the flat for Candy but also fragile. Awesome win at Newb when beat Theatre Girl when miles clear however fragile nature exposed next time at Donny when reportedly a bit warm beforehand and disappointing even if form looks better now. Banking on the KK of Newb turns up here, if it does, decent claims. Finally Muirhead I think is the best of the Irish, still unexposed seemingly, won on different kinds of ground, Meade form much improved in last few weeks, Cork All Star arguably has claims to overcome the last defeat but that one still has jumping question marks and is more exposed than Muirhead and is unlikely to get its wanted quick ground. 2.35 Clopf 16/1 12 pts e.w ante post Lay in running 1.18 20 pts Tidal Bay 15/2 PP 15 pts e.w Keen on Clopf all year whether for this or CH, immensely strong traveller and all being well will travel like the winner in this race imo front run lto before last flight unlucky fall when certain to win seemingly and just held on on chase bow. A Grade 1 winner over hurdles and much respected and for O'Grady who has great festival record, the slight question marks is its possible failure to see out the trip up the hill, hence the lay in running as the way it travels it should go low in running and possibly very low esp. as there maybe a point where Noland and Tidal Bay maybe outpaced and drift accordingly. Tidal Bay is a poor selection from me really. If it was in the RSAC I would nearly make it my banker for the whole week as the less frantic nature of that race I believe will ease jumping worries. It also has majority of form over further. However undoubtedly it has class, it does have big jumping worries but if it has a clear round, some if, i put it right up there, it should be staying on even if it is outpaced earlier, noland could do exactly the same but is a much shorter price and could be one to watch inrunning (999/1 win it won the Supreme 06) 3.15 Harchibald 7/1 15 pts win 1.18 lay in running if possible 20 pts 2.72 Betf I managed to get 25 pts place Sizing Europe 25 pts SP Harchibald is a confident place bet at least. It has the best form from its 05 run imo when it just failed in the battle but signs are it is back in that form. Ignore Christmas hurdle form as that was purely down to mcCoy and there will be surely no tactics like that in a big field CH, prep on flat encouraging and has worked wonders before. Lay bet in running if matched for obvious reasons considering the horse. Sizing europe awesome AIG win, ok form can be questioned but style was awesome, beat Osana earlier getting weight but looks to have improved since then as maybe has the Pipe horse. Potentially the new CH star that the division is craving. Can jump a fraction big but ability to handle track already shown ease those fears. Only nagging doubt for me is that Osana does not get enough stupid easy lead? 4.00 Monkerhostin 9/1 Bet3 bog 15 pts e.w Fundamentalist 12/1 bet3 bog 15 pts e.w Trends may say these have too much weight to win but Im not sure and think e.w they are solid. Monkerhostin always runs with credit, goes well at the track and for me would not ben the worse bet in the GC without the big 3, staying on run in good handicap at track lto of big weight shows ability still remains, Fundamentalist classy novice hurdler, won ballymore beating Inglis Drever and bouncing back to some form seemingly, not one to always rely on but win, second when giving weight to jack the Giant and win show that he has hit some, can run well at the track, I think capable of staying trainer has mentioned GN, so stamina my not be a problem. 4.40 Wonderkid 5/2 Bet3 bog 24 pts Kilbeggan Blade 20/1 Bet3 bog 8 pts e.w Wonderkid cruised in here over CD in dec and whilst well weighted, travelled with such ease to suggest could do so again despite rise. Martin gave it a warm up over hurdles, jockey gets on well with, ticks a lot of boxes to overcome weight rise. Kilbeggan Blade lacks this type of experience but no doubt will stay strongly, goes better on softer but 20/1 seems reasonably generous and may just be the best e.w opposition to the fav. 5.20 Ashkazar 11/4 lad 35 pts (nap of day 1) Chord 50/1 Boyle Bog 5 pts e.w 5 places Ashkazar crusied home on Sat as I predicted and looks capable of going in again with this his target, he escapes penalty as he is the top weight and whilst no doubt there are some promising types behind probably well weighted this looks solid to me. Top class on the flat, improving all the time over hurdles and I think will continue to do so, travels strongly, ridden in the lead lto and quickly turned competitve race into 1 horse race. Interesting this is the chosen race and can land the bonus, big things for this next year imo Chord e.w just at a big price. Looks very tricky to win with on flat for Stoute and over hurdles but it can travel impressively before seemingly being awkward about going through with the effort. Last two runs though reasonable enough behind Songe and may ahve place claims for the 4.

[bowles10]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 2 returns so far Woody, well done.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Staked 6099.3 pts Returned 5780.62pts P/L -318.68 Strike rate 32.88% (146/444) Down for the day after good start, with Tidal Bay winning and Snap Tie placing and remember I went in on the place side again. Ashkazar in the last just beaten by Crack Away Jack who I napped lto ironically with Timmy on board at Sandown and that would have been the profit for the day. Instead down -82 for the festival so far.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Will explain later tonight but some early prices for some races, no doubt will add: 2.00 Fiveforthree 8/1 Bet3 bog 12 pts e.w 2.35 Verasi 25/1 WH 8pts e.w Starzaan 8/1 SJ bog 12 pts e.w 3.15 Twist Magic 5/1 SJ bog 20 pts e.w 4.00 Naiad du Misselot 10/1 Bet3 bog 15 pts e.w 5 places Country Zen 10/1 Bet3 bog 15 pts e.w 5 places 5.20 Zaarito 4/1 Bet3 bog 17.5 pts e.w 4 places Mahonia 20/1 Bet3 bog 6 pts e.w

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Other bets: 2.00 Aigle D'or 12/1 15 pts e.w ante post, will go in again 7.5 pts e.w 11/2 var 3.15 Master Minded 10/3 Cor 25 pts 4.00 Overstrand 66/1 PP 3.5 pts e.w 5 places 4.40 Ornais 4/1 Bet3 bog 17.5 pts e.w 4 places Old Benny 11/1 12.5 pts e.w (I know much bigger elesewhere but this is bog so coul ddrift and mainly due to 4 places) 5.20 Kingston Lane 80 Betf 3.5 pts 11/1 PP place top 4 now its bigger on exhanges but all comes down to place terms.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 2.00 Aigle D'Or e.w NAP of the day and the whole meeting. Backed this ante post at good e.w price in double figures and reasonably confident not just on place side but also win. Good on the flat listed winner and ran midfield in group two just behind the 2007 Arc forth which just gives an indication of ability. Over hurdles two pretty impressive performances. First time may have beat little although I think Wind Instrumnet is useful but was very impressive visuably and then again at Chelt. where it showed CD no problem which is a bonus and it was very encoraging that it picked up after the mistake at the last and saw out trip well which will be needed tomorrow. Goes in different kind of ground from flat but softer would not be a problem. Fiveforthree e.w Good bumper form from last year and a touch unlucky in last years bumper, won well enough on hurdle debut and second dotted up next time, increased trip on breeding and indeed bumper style of run will suit imo and e.w claims. 2.35 A really tough race to call, looks weak imo. Starzaan e.w Decent flat horse, nothing special and decent enough hurdler for trainer who has had runners run well here in the past. Chase form two easy wins from no kind of fields but visually quite impressive. second win in two runner affair beat Duc De Regniere who had Tidal Bay form when closing in on the Arkle winner at Chelt. and was classy over hurdles at times, beat Osana and was the horse that made Mick Fitz carry on riding, reportedly, that horse may have not run a true level in fact Im certain of it but the winner Starzaan was still impressive. Thornton on board. Verasi e.w Should not be good enough but I think this is a weak race and at biggish price may have e.w claims. Solid handicapper over hurdles but maybe slightly better over fences, impressive in narrow Lead On defeat when there was excuses, mistake at last and dropped whip, and impressive when beat Old Benny, jumped really well that day, won rubbish race lto but will like stamina test these days and possible cut in ground. Trainer is very under rated imo and considered handicaps for this but went for this class race, that maybe significant. 3.15 Really considered a VPU lay who for me needs to improve big time and that is a big statement for last years winner but going with PN pair. Twist Magic e.w I know the doubts, esp. about stamina and with some justification after Asc run and on that evidence I should be on Tamarinbleu but Im not convinced if thats a 2m horse or how it will react when pressed for lead. I just think this is the class horse of the race at the moment, MM arguably has more improvemnet but this one can I believe still improve. Awesome traveller, has speed to burn these and a class turn of foot, not sure some of the others do. Would not want it getting too soft. Master Minded Really impressed lto, mass improver and should improve more. VPU got what lto but still on levels Im not sure the form would have been turned around. Likes softer and stays further seemingly, Ryan Air entry indicated that. 4.00 Naiad du Misselot e.w Put this up lto at Haydock when on testing ground and a good ride it picked up late having travelled well to win and can do so again, or at least go close. Rise after that but still reasonably unexposed, stays and trainer who always does well in these handicaps here looked in good form yesterday. County Zen e.w Seemingly prefered choice over other races for inform Hobbs'. Run well in early races over hurdles, stayed out 2m strongly and on testing so trip increase I see as a positive and form of last closing third in Totesport Gold Cup at Newb boosted by Punjabi in CH. Overstrand e.w 5 places Big price, trainer won race last year, bad form this season but dropping in handicap eventually and better with a bit of cut and this is its trip I think. 4.40 Ornais e.w steal Proper stayer for the race.Form over the whole season and run lto was its best imo when beat decent field. Prefered choice over other possibles significant maybe and a clear run and for me should be in the 4 for sure, should go close really. Old Benny e.w 4 places Agian looks a slow dour stayer, goes with a bit of cut, King flying, will probably struggle to overcome Ornais form lto but solid place claims for a race like this and before Ornais defeat, second to Verasi who i think amy go well in RSAC. 5.20 Zaarito e.w steal Takes a lot to win three bumpers but this one has and with a degree of style each time in different types of ground and bits of form have been boosted from those races for what its worth. For me the best of the Irish who do so well in the race. Mahonia e.w Just one bumper run but decent winner at Chep. which shows stamina imo. and whilst needs to improve should eb capable of better. Interesting PN only runner and the owner combination of some of the best owners around. Kingston Lane e.w Chaser in the making who won two bumpers whilst still being green enough, improvement in him, showed it stays strongly lto and trainer does well in bumpers and maybe significant this is his only runner although maybe not in that he is not riding it! 4 places

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Keep bets for Wed canc. except Kingston lane win which will have 91 betd Other bets for tomorrow, explainations will follow, got these before Spurs game: 1.40 Mr Strachan 9/1 SJ bog 13 pts e.w Finger on the Pulse 11/1 SJ bog 12 pts e.w Arturio 10 pts win betf 18.5, 4.3 10 pts place 2.55 The Listener 25 pts e.w 4/1 SJ bog 3.30 Blazing Bailey ante post 14/1 25 pts e.w will add 8/1 Spor 5 pts e.w still think its a cracking e.w price My Way de Solzen 11/1 Cor 10 pts e.w Aitmatov 33/1 SJ bog 6 pts e.w 4.05 Dont Push It 4/1 SJ bog 25 pts e.w 4.40 Robin Du Bois 11/2 boy bog 17.5 pts e.w 5 places (I know its bigger but 5 places preference) Buena Vista 16/1 sj bog 12.5 pts e.w 5.15 My Immortal 7/1 Boy bog 13 pts e.w 5 places Noir Et Vert 10/1 Boy bog 11 pts e.w Bob Bob Bobbin 14/1 Bet3 11 pts e.w

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 1.40 Mr Strachan e.w was 25/1 ante post and I thought that was bigger, did nothing and alas much shorter now and no real surprise on looking at form, beat Ungaro just behind L'Antartique in three runner race, second to tidal Bay, beat the Arkle second and lto over further did not really see it out, handicap rating seems fair imo. Finger on the Pulse e.w decent over hurdles for Kicking King connections and done well enough over fences, bits of form here and there including lto when second to Glencove Marina who for me is one of the best novices this season before being injured, and still well in over fences if comapared to hurdle ability, especially old hurdle ability. Arturio e.w Very impressive on only chase start in this country over CD, that is always a bonus especially round here, routed them that day, disappointed over hurdles after that but possibly more a chaser and big respect despite being PN 'second string.' For me if it did not disappoint over hurdles would be fav. 2.55 The Listener e.w steal. Hard to completely read conditions, but there should still be a bit of cut which is the real bonus for this talented grey. Cleary thrives in mud but still good when its good to soft and has shown that in the past so not a complete mudlark. Might want to jump slightly better as went a touch to much to the right lto but only a minor criticsm, not a Racing Demon criticsm. At Chelt this trip is for me the better option and the fact it can stay a touch further is a bonus, rivals have some doubts, is Mossbank flattered by that slow pace run lto? L'Antartique maybe exposed more at this level and need to jump better as does Racing Demon on this track and probably wont, Our Vic is a bit of an enigma. 3.30 Blazing Bailey e.w Good ante post bet on this and for me should be in the three at least if it gives true running, pretty consistent once it has a few runs in a season, it does need that imo to get into form. Maybe not quite as good as ID, but that one still has the odd doubt imo even if it is the most likely winner, my main doubt is if it can find under pressure once again? Walsh interesting booking. My Way De Solzen e.w Bet on reputation more than anything. Twice fest. winner inc. this race, not in great form but at least at Font it showed it was not finished, needs to step up big time from that, giving LD weight and being beaten is not WH winning form but confidence in connections and Thornton's booking indicates they think it can. Aitmatov e.w pure gamble, may not stay but hopeful it can, run when beating Sweet Kiln indicated it could move up in trip and for me I think it can overcome Kazal form when Meade's in awful form as he was during AIG run. Before that looked progressive and could be again at new trip, I think Carberry's style suits the horse, Meade's form of runners on day 1 is a concern. 4.05 Dont Push It e.w steal hopefully. Like this horse, the only horse over a fence to threaten Denman and arguably would have beaten Denman but for mistake three out, travelling well in Arkle when fell having jumped fence ok seemingly, outpaced slightly after that at Aint. so new trip I think will suit and laid out for this seemingly, had choice of QMCC and RA (where it would have been my pick), clearly interesting conncetions and the fact it has been so well supported, might be one too good for handicaps in the future. 4.40 Robin Du Bois e.w Tony Martin factor here in a handicap, decent as a four old and it was very interesting how well it travelled so well two starts back, did not follow through with that and that's a slight concern with new trip, fell lto but more a bet on reputation and bits of form last year that make it possibly better handicapped than official figures have it at, officially 12 pounds wrong and yet fav. for handicap, says it all. Buena Vista e.w Slight stamina question again but has class element, showed bits of form over fences last year but good over hurdles, placed in supreme 06 which featured 07 CH winner, sublimity behind. Supposed drying ground I think helps as does form of Pipes. 5.15 My Immortal e.w Ok handicapper over hurdles but looks better over fences, appears to stay further over fences and run lto was good, decent third behind Gungadu who went to win the Racing post Chase, only raised 1 pound for that which looks fair, first time blinkers should light him up even further, Pipe's in top form, looks solid. Noir Et Vert e.w Murphy's record is very noteworthy here and although maybe second choice, not too sure on that, it looks to have been laid out for this, very progressive last seasona nd run good second lto at Punch fest. Has not got a great record fresh though Murphy generally has these ready for these races at this time of the year. Bob Bob Bobbin e.w has flattered to deceive, looked potentially very useful at one point last year but has been treated for problem, first time tongue tie, goes very well fresh which is a real positive, Snowden good amateur, watch out if he rides Cornish Rebel tomorrow in Foxhunters, e.w double not the worse bet.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Staked 6706.3 pts Returned 6415.495 pts P/L -290.805 (includes ante post bets so far) Strike rate 32.19% (150/466) Which I believe makes me up for the day but down 54.125 for the festival including ante post bets, which so far have not been great bar Snap Tie. Started today well with Old Benny, Finger on the Pulse and Master Minded but winners dried up and only e.w after that amongst the masses of bets on a long day.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Some early prices I am taking tomorrow: 2.50 Lodge Lane 6/1 17.5 pts e.w Bet bog 4 places The Tother One 11/2 17.5 pts e.w Bet3 bog 4.05 Natian bet3 bog 25/1 12.5 pts e.w 4 places Cornish rebel 33/1 boy bog 12.5 pts e.w plus lay in running if 1.18 25 pts bearing in my horse hits. 4.40 Mister Quasimodo 20/1 VC 12 pts e.w Hast Prince 11/1 sj bog 12 pts e.w 5.20 Mon Michel 12/1 boy bog 5 places 12.5 pts e.w Imsingingtheblues 12/1 bet3 12.5 pts e.w

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Other bets 12.30 chomba Womba 3/1 sj bog 35 pts win 2.15 Five Dream 17/2 bet2 bog 4 places 20 pts e.w 3.30 Kauto Star 5/4 var 80 pts win

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 12.30 Chomba Womba pretty useful over in Ireland and carried on that with henderson. Notched up three wins, first two with ease (forget first winning margin) lto beat Theatre Girl who looks good as well but Chomba Womba looks just that little bit more experienced and battle hard for a race like this. Goes on different kind of ground, henderson just missed out on a winner of late at the fest. but has good chances today to put that right. 2.15 Five Dream e.w Franchoek has clear claims for this especially with no Binocular and Ashkazar around who would have been considerable threats. However the possible drying ground might not just be in this ones favour, it was a 2 miler on the flat and looks a real stayer, something normally that suits the Triumph but the slightly smaller field than usual for the race might just mean that speed and not stamina is needed more and I favour this one just over the other PN runner. Partly due to the price and partly due to this ones good progression in handicaps, which helps make it battle hardened for this race and lto with overweight in possibly a better race than at first thought, the come from behind style did not really suit that day so there is an excuse. With 4 places it makes e.w appeal today. 2.50 Lodge Lane e.w A horse full of talent if not quirks, showed that in the bumper last year when ran so wide it did amazingly well to be a close as it was, done well over hurdels, still green but notched up wins including over Carruthers when giving weight but still impressive considering lack of experience and that form has really worked out. Gerraghty a positive, interesting booking. The Tother One e.w Top class handicap progression and a player for this, seemingly getting better as trip progresses, rider gets on well and to win lto despite 30 pound higher mark than first when shows that and it seemingly is not stopping either, definite contender. 3.30 Said most of what I need to say, Kauto Star win and thats pretty much it. If ultra testing may have considered Denman but to keep it simple, KS best horse, Denman will try to bruise it into the ground but at the crunch can it repell KS's extra speed, i think not myself. forget e.w others, go for the win on Kauto. Hope everything gets round safe and we have a cracker oh and that Kauto Star wins. 4.05 Natian e.w Put up very impressive win lto at favoured Kelso where it stayed strongly following its normal solid jumping display. As I say a really good jumper, who stays strongly and does look to be improving unlike soem others. Cornish Rebel e.w I always speak fondly of this rogue, the sort of horse who at his best will travel just of KS and Denman and finish third and yet cant win effectively a two runner race lto. I always talk of ist past, RSAC placed, SGN runner up (threw away certain victory), WGN placed, Hennessy placed. Ok not necessarily that horse now but got two seconds giving weight to qualify for this, new yard may have given it sense of life and goes well at this track and over CD, jumps and stays so well, just in 2006 it was cruising in the Gold Cup and a near certainty to place at least before Tizzard mucked it up and he has barely ridden for PN since and possibly as a result of. Ok not oen to rely on for the win but capable of a place at least. Remember if it takes to Aintree this year? 4.40 Hasty prince e.w Jonjo still in and out and so is this one but it is just one pound higher than second in this race last year and despite indifferent form it did finsih second to Master Minded two starts back and it was not thrashed by 19 lengths, only 3 and a half, on that form despite MMs obvious improvement, respected big time. Mister Quasimodo e.w Has soem decent runs at time and lto in first time blinkers a good winner over two horses who ran very well yesterday to be placed, before that had third behind VPU and second behind Twist Magic. Won easily at Exeter this season as well so has been there or thereabouts all season and subsequent form of rivals behind on last start suggest could defy weight rise if blinkers second time have similar effect, and that is an if. 5.20 Mon Michel e.w Moore's runners here need big respect and the fact Moore rides this ahead of Wingman looks significant, UR last weekend told us nothing, before that was starting to progress over hurdles amongst some pretty useful handicappers although after the Triumph, Five Dream may be a handicapper no longer. Imsingingtheblues e.w CD form for a combination who have won this race in recent years and gone close as well. LTO needed the run seemingly and may not have truly seen that race out, a strong gallop here should suit big time like it did when it beat Snap Tie giving weight at the track, form looking better now of that two. Country Zen defeat also reads well and maybe significant that this was chosen ahead of other targets.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Staked 7208.3 pts Returned 6824.56 pts P/L -383.74 (includes ante post bets which generally means losers) Strike rate 31.81% (153/481) Overall then Chelt. was a sort of disappointing event, down 148.06 but possibly not as bad as that indicates as ante post bets bring that down. The general story was a good start but then running out of steam particularly the last two days.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Uttox 2.55 Wind Instrument 5/1 bet3 bog 12.5 pts e.w Put this up last week when a non runner. Following decent bumper ability (3rd best of Eng in 06 Champion bumper) it ran some respectable races over hurdles, bumping into a couple Forest Penant and Aigle Dor (even though that ran shocker yest.)but it won lto over further at Chep in reasonably impressive fashion and its mark does not look that harsh for this race. Johnson booked for Llewellyn. 3.30 Arnold Layne 8/1 wh 12.5 pts e.w This horse that put AP out for a while but up til than it had looked progressive and impressive. Nornamlly a good jumper ironically, looks a dour stayer and it did come back after the fall lto with a pretty decent front running performance, has risen in the weights but that might not stop its progression. Should have solid e.w claims at least.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Staked 7258.3 pts Returned 6927.685pts P/L -330.62 Strike rate 31.88% (154/483) Hay 2.30 Planet of Sound 4.9 Betf 15 pts pretty consisetent this season without too much, when it did win it was in front of The Package and that form certainly reads quite well now, second after that a touch disappointing and then fourth behind Numide in a race that worked out well, second lto and even though winner did not boost that form, it reads as another solid run and should go close again today just 3 pounds higher than last run and yet still behind Numide run. 5.50 Captain Oscar 2.9 Betf 20 pts I admit half of these I know little about and I only know of one run by this one but what a run, second just behind Mad Max, future winner and chaser in the making, and miles clear of the rest and on that evidence looked to have big future, showed could handle softer that day too, would need to be a good one around to beat it. Fair 3.50 Clopf 7/4 var 20 pts. Put this up lots of times now and last two runs have been frustrating with a fall and u/r and arguably both times a touch unlucky, jumped fence two starts well enough when surely would have won just went on landing and simply overjumped first in Arkle. Still it is of some concern of these slightly novice errors but i dont regard the horse as a bad jumper yet and it still is one of huge potential oevr fences imo, Perce Rock a danger today, pronanly the main danger and that was fairly impressive lto but that too can make mistakes so I will take Clopf to start fulfilling its potential.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Staked 7293.3 pts Returned 6927.685pts P/L -365.62 Strike rate 31.75% (154/485) Plum 2.30 Hinton Thunderbolt 4.9 betf 15 pts Looks as though the 3 market leaders are the ones to concentrate on and this ones second run in the real stand out imo. It won that day at Towcester @ 50/1, showing plenty of staying ability over 2m and beating some useful types in the field, The Package and Tot O'Whiskey, after that ran performed ok, no better than that really when midfield with a penalty but the claim today is very useful for the rider of that Towc. win who has since gone onto win a few for this trainer, increased trip I do not see as a major inconvenice looking at its only win. Fair 3.15 Cooldine 11/10 var bog 20 pts On a fantastic winning run and seemingly improving and looks capable of another Grade 2 today. Mullins has used to good effect this year with the likes of J'vole and Pomme Tippy for example to bring up sequences and whilst those runs eventually have come to an end and that could be the main concern here, Cooldine will be sharp unlike possibly say the talented Aranleigh who was stupidly run over shorter lto for an obvious stayer in the making imo but may not quite appreciate the softish ground nor the break. Cooldine's last win was very decisive by 11 lengths over a possibly IGN contender tomorrow, it likes thr ground, trip no problem, big chance. Cork 4.15 Jayo 7/1 boy bog 10 pts e.w Put this up lots of times now and one who often runs with credit in top handicaps. Has shown that with fifth in pierse and solid run again in totesport trophy and both of those races have worked out pretty well. Before that won early this season before bursting around Christmas which always is a bit of a concern with a horse but the two top handicap runs calm fears somewhat, the run lto was actually wrong at the weights by over 10 pounds so really was a top effort for this smooth traveller, ground no real problem, increased trip perhaps a bit more of an unknown but even so represent solid form and a clear e.w chance at least if it gives normal running.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Staked 7348.3 pts Returned 7158.685pts P/L -189.615 Strike rate 32.17% (157/488) Good day today with three winners. Will do a few tomorrow but a couple of early prices for IGN: Ballycullen Boy 18/1 bet3 bog 7.5 pts e.w 5 places and A New Story 33/1 bet3 bog 7.5 pts e.w 5 places.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Fair 2.40 Sonnyandjoe 3.4 15 pts betf Last two runs has looked exposed but at this level is much more of a player and proved that prior to the last two wins with several good performances in victory and defeat. Probably slightly better on a sounder surface so the likely drying ground would be in this ones favour although can go with some cut, claimer has got on well with it before. 3.10 Robin Du Bois 5/2 bet3 bog 15 pts One of those Martin 'plots' at Chelt when to me never seemed to be in the race, this is a bg drop back in trip and possibly may well suit, certainly last year when 4 it was more a 2 miler than a 3 miler I would have suggested, the four year old form is decent, good runs in a grade 2 for example, Ruby on board for Martin which is always of some interest. 3.55 Ballycullen Boy 18/1 bet3 bog 7.5 pts e.w 5 places Just out of the handicapand had a decent prep for this when second in a grade 2 hurdle race behind Cooldine who won again yesterday, has shown can handle big fields such as in the Kerry National when second this season and even the effort behind Mossbank was fair enough early in the season, a performance of that level puts it in contention today. Mattock Ranger 25/1 pp 7.5 pts e.w 5 places Possibly meade's second string but another one who shows lots of stamina and did that in the Cork GN early on in the season when winning, disappointed straight after that but bounced back to some form when staying on lto on slightly better ground. Not out of this even though the second string and probably more reliable than Meade's first string who does not have the experience of this one. A New Story 33/1 bet3 bog 7.5 pts e.w 5 places Out of the handicap and not really on who has pounds in hand but what this one does have is lots of experience of these types of races, placed in the race before, dour stayer and placed lto at Chelt in the x country, a race that can throw up the odd GN winner although this one is probably more a place chance. 4.30 Newton Bridge 16/1 var 7.5 pts e.w Tough handicap hurdle but this is one for its GN winning trainer who has tried chasing and hurdles with mixed success but on some of its hurdle runs put it in with a fair chance and indicate it might not be too badly treated, for example win at Chelt over Peacock who has loads of solid handicap runs this year, if teh ground dries its chance improves. Chep 2.25 Quillygham 20/1 spor 7.5 pts e.w A bit of a punt as only have one bumper run to go on so no idea of hurdles ability but shaped with a fair bit of promise that day when big odds to finish second, staying on in an average bumper. It could well be quite significant that they have put it in a hurdle now knowing they could lose its novice status at this stage of the season, it looks a toughish race to do it in with Quartano a main danger just to name one but could surprise one or two for the inform big stable for whom its rare to see horses go off at big prices.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Staked 7453.3 pts Returned 7265.56pts P/L -187.74 Strike rate 32.12% (159/495) Slight profit on the day with A New Story and Newton Bridge placing. Fair 2.45 Considered Tidal Fury but drying ground may be against it so Gemini Lucy 11/2 bet3 bog 10 pts e.w. Won this race last year but since then has been indifferent, jumping problems costly and leading to numerous falls and even has been put over hurdles to get some confidence. However in this handicap it does get weight from Mansony and Schindlers Hunt, the later in particular had a hard race at Chelt. and after a break this one would be a real danger if at her best, likes to get into a rythmm in front and SH could well dispute but if and it is an if, she gets her jumping together on this right handed track that should suit, she can go close. 3.50 Psycho SP 20 pts. Will leave SP as it looks short enough at the moment and there is a chance it could drift a touch, then again a Martin horse like this. Unlucky horse at the momnet, fell when cruising two starts ago and was cruising the whole way in the County, when Carberry finally asked it to go it did pick up and closed quickly and late on the winner, undoubtedly imo given a poor ride and too much to do and I didn't even back it. The danger is if that race left its toll, if it did then there could be trouble but if not then it still looks well handicapped enough and should go very close to winning on recent form.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Staked 7493.3 pts Returned 7265.56pts P/L -227.74 Strike rate 31.99% (159/497) Bang 4.40 Carrick Oscar 7.5 pts win 9.4 betf, 7.5 pts place 3. Only two starts but on the first hurdle start and win created very good impression, easy win over Mark the Book who went onto some good wins himself. Came back after year out, presumably due to problems and ran third in decent race at Chep win was very free early on and weakened late, jump to 3m on that evidence may not seem ideal but its win at Towc suggested it was a real stayer in the making and I think if it can settle better and with more experience it could well today, then chances for a horse the trainer has often spoke highly of.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Staked 7508.3 pts Returned 7265.56pts P/L -242.74 Strike rate 31.92% (159/498) Will come back for more prices tomorrow. Ain 2.00 Blazing Bailey 13/2 lad 12.5 pts e.w On recent Chelt. form with Inglis Drever its hard to see this one overturn it and indeed its last run it generally struggled to go with the pace at all and just stayed on into fourth. However Inglis Drever disappointed in this race last year, BB was behind that but only after a big mistake having travelled well enough and there is a suspicion that the great Inglis Drever is perhaps not the same horse at a flatter track like Aintree than Chelt. and despite 1 course win that is probably a reasonable suspicion. So one to take adavantage could be Blazing Bailey with the blinkers on first time, they should light him up that extra bit which perhaps was lacking at Chelt and if it runs his race than for me should be in the three at least. 2.35 Kauto Star 8/11 30 pts Has caused some debate following last run when second to the mighty Denman but even still that was a good run, ok perhaps not at his best but still at a level that would trouble many of these who KS seemingly holds, KS lost to Monets Garden first up but that was giving weight and routed it at Ascot laterly although Monets Garden undoubtedly thrives here albeit maybe over shorter, Our Vic put up a good performance lto but KS has always beaten it, it is a step up for Gungadu who has improved of late but I cant see challenging KS myself, Exotic Dancer was awesome in this last year and ran KS close in the Betfair but still has not beaten it and although ED will be better for the run in Gold Cup (awful record after a break) I still cant see it or anything beating Kauto Star, if he loses this then words of a 'decline' have to be put forward imo. 3.10 Binocular 7/4 var 25 pts Really impressed with this at chelt. Not easy for a younger horse to take on older horses but did it really well, travelling very well before just going down to captain cee bee, previous form pretty good too, especially Asc win with Crack Away Jack a long way behind, form at Kemp. perhaps not as impressive but at least showed battling qualities that day and the fact it still won encourages, Celestial Halo won Triumph pretty well from the front but in Binocular it might just have a speedier rival to repel and might struggle to do so. 3.45 Sonevafushi 10 pts e.w Dont know the exacts of many of these but I do know that this one was a fair handicapper for a while and indeed good enough to be in the GN last year and therefore has experience of vital fences, has come fresh after two recent wins, I think the trip is better than the longer GN distance for which it was always a doubtful stayer for, should have a decent ride. 4.20 Andreas 12.5 pts e.w Tough ask top of a handicap like this but this one has enough about him to suggest he can go close, has an element of class about him as he showed for instance with Chelt win last year and was going well in this last year, at Chelt this year just faded come the crunch, not quite seeing out the trip so return to easier track in that regard should help and off only one pound higher mark than race last year when going well. Leslingtaylor 15/2 bet3 bog 10 pts e.w The key here is the track, has shown likes the track and flatter tarcks in general, fair on the flat and over hurdles and showed fences no problem with easy win over Marodima which reads quite well as does Tidal Bay win, ok Tidal Bay jumped terribly and threw that race away but it still beat it and no one else has over fences, Chelt. disappointed but as I say track may have been against and also maybe ground that day. 5.30 County Zen 10 pts e.w Presumably Hobbs first choice ahead of Ring the boss who for me needs it softer, he disappointed at Chelt no doubt about it in coral cup. So needs forgiveness for that but before that had many solid runs in good handicaps such as behind Punjabi and Wingman even win before that and second to imsingingtheblues, 2 and a half miles I think is in its radar especially here and if he nearer to pre Chelt. form should go ok. Tot O Whiskey 10 pts e.w decent bumper performer, string of wins and showed fair hurdle ability in some decent races, lto in big race at San was third which is a good run and only penalised slightly for that, runs in race involving Backboard, hinton thunderbolt are fairly reasonable runs and should be able to give a decent account.

[mowgli77]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 I hope you're right with Leslingtaylor, I also fancy this one. :hope Good Luck.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008

I hope you're right with Leslingtaylor, I also fancy this one. :hope Good Luck.

Tom Segal reckons there was 10/1 on this one last night, well i posted at 11 and the best I could find was 15/2, he is having a laugh. Sonevafushi 12/1 var 4 places Andreas 7/1 lad County Zen 17/2 var bog Tot O Whiskey 10/1 var bog.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Staked 7693.3 pts Returned 7496.81pts P/L -196.49 Strike rate 32.01% (162/506) Up on the day although faded late on just like Chelt. Will do lots tomorrow but some early prices: 3.45 Bothar Na 18/1 bs (is bigger but not with 5 places) 7.5 pts e.w, Youre Special var 33/1 5 places 7.5 pts e.w