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WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008


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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Have to be quick but three at Kempton all 10 pts win: 1.10 Gaspara. Very classy horse last year who perhaps lacked scope but went onto success all over the place including the festival. May have just neeeded the run lto. 1.45 Carnival Town. First came to my attention when running decentish races against Leading Contender last year and despite fading last year it looked better when second last week and AP takes over. 2.20 Lucifer Bleu. Another one who got better and better last year and has the assistance of AP for Pipe. Found the task in the Racing Post trophy whne fav too much but after a good break which it has done well off before, should go well.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 All SP Chep 12.40 Forrest Pennant 15 pts win. Looking at the previous winners of the race it has provided some useful types and Nicholls in particular has a goo drecord in winning this race. Cornish rebel won this race in the past and that is one of my fav horses and I do not have a clue what has happened with it now because although registered with PN, it was not in his stable tour. It was pretty classy on its day if not difficult and with a bit more luck could have won a Hennessy, Scottish National and even a Gold Cup. Anyway this one looked ok on a few starts last year as a bumper horse and improved to win an ok bumper on its last start and is one for the trainers record in the race if anything. 2.55 Blue Splash 12 pts win if below 4/1 or 6 pts e.w if not. Improved a lot last year and went well in heavy but could also handle it quicker as well. Improved when over fences and does switch to hurdles today but was decnt enough over them last year as well and seems adaptable enough, plus the trainer has had plenty of winners in the last few days. Ling 1.30 Pauillac 15 pts win. I should learn my lesson that Pipe is not firing but the way he has pinpointed this one as a mass improver when going over fences I cannot let it go with AP adopting his old colours. Decent as a 4 year old if not top class in that category but Pipe has often said that it will get better when it tackles a fence so we will see. Small field could help in this starting operation. 2.05 Colwyn Bay 6 pts e.w A bit of a speculative one as only one run over hurdles so a bit of a guess but it did improve on the flat thi summer at a low level and maintained it quite well before blowing out lto, just a speculativ eone to see if it takes to hurdles in this country.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Car 1.20 Brave Rebellion @ 5/1 7.5 pts e.w Decent hurdler last year in the sense that it won a few races often in its seemingly fancied quicker ground which might be a minor concern today but it went ok on its chase run lto against Tidal Bay. A long way back that day in fourth but it should come on for that and in the context of this race it is decntish and with the dead 8 an early e.w bet to nothing. Taun 2.45 Owlesbury Dream @ 13/8 15 pts win The trainer seems in good form at the moment and this one looked good winning with reasonable ease on its debut over hurdles lto and looked do it with enough ease to suggest it could go in again. 3.50 Roby de Cimbre @ 14/1 5 pts e.w One from the Nicholls yard that has not quite achieved massive amounts of decent form in this country so far with some consistent if unspectacular efforts so far. However it should appreciate a bit of a step up in trip today and the claimer takes loads off, always interesting when a Nicholls one in the West Country is realtively big. Uttox 2.35 Mister Potter @ 3/1 15 pts win. Recorded some good performances over hurdles last year often in testing conditions, might not be quite as testing today for its chase prospect but shaped a good prospect last year and also looks to be early support.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Newbury 1.00 Kavaloti 5/1 7.5 pts e.w A dark horse really who I have no real evidence of what it will be like today but it was ok at an average level on the flat and the trainer, who does well with these types, has spoken that this one might be half decent. 2.05 Eden Linty 15/2 7.5pts e.w Has a good record in her career of winning and bids for a hatrick today in a very competitive race and hence the bigger price so e.w it definitely has some appeal. A longer trip today which I think could help and the trainer still in decent form. 2.35 Hobbs Hill 4/1 7.5 pts e.w Like this one. Picked it for its chasing debut when although Modicum travelled better this one found more and then was an impressive winner at skinny odds lto. It was an ok hurdler who perhaps did not have the form of others in todays race but it has experience already over fences and that is very important. Might find one too good but not sure about two. 3.40 The Package 6/1 7.5 pts e.w Jonjo's horse looks the most likely fav but it has already had a couple of opportunities and this one ran a decent race on its hurdle debut following from a bumper win. It was second but a fair way clear and it might just be an e.w alternative. Muss 2.25 Roman Villa 2/1 15 pts. One for the GN winning trainer who's raids to this country are becoming more succeessful by the day. This one has come over three times and improved each time and on its last start really it was very unlucky not to win at Cheltenham when it was travelling like a sure winner before AP literally on his own made sure it was second. A similar performance and it should go close today.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 A few thoughts on the main four races (these could well look stupid) with one ante post bet: World Hurdle. Blazing Bailey @ 14/1 e.w but half that price in places. On the evidence of the run on Sat you would not have it on your mind but sometimes the best time to get on is after a bad run. It was down the field and too far down the field for the lack of a run, quickish ground or the weight to be an excuse on that ocassion but I still think this one is still worth following. It is still only five and open to a lot of improvement and in truth it may not need to find that much. Third in the race last year having already beaten the winner earlier in the year on more favoured soft ground. Also there are probably some question marks as to if Inglis Drever can keep on going and how his new rider will get on as he is not straight forward and BJK has not lived up to the hype and will probably drop in trip. The dour stayer, Witchita Lineman is probably the biggest threat of the newcomers but at nearly three times the price, I am willing to take Blazing Bailey despite that disappointing run on Sat. From the ante post thread. I will put up all 4 and two bets now. The first Blazing Bailey @ 14/1 25 pts e.w and will take it out after the race.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Champion Hurdle: I do not believe this is a strong renewal imo. Sublimity won well last year but I am not totally convinced. They went far too fast and really set it up for Sublimity, the fact a staying on Afsoun could go onto finish third and not be a million miles away, imo does little for the form and of course the main hope, Detroit City really disappointed. Sublimity also is quite a frail horse and it might not be so easy as to even getting him there. Also I am slightly suspicious of horses who suddenly can find such huge improvement which he did and until he can maintain his form I remain unconvinced. Katchit has done nothing wrong however the five year old stat is a concern and even though he could run well in most of the year, he might be vulnerable on the day. So that leaves this race open and there are a few that maybe worth following. Macs Joy was third yesterday in an ok run on unfavoured ground and for a re appearance. If he could repeat his 2006 second to Brave Inca he will be bang in there. The question probably though is can he? A few relatively unexposed types such as Blythe Knight, Clopf, Aitmatov, De Valira, Silent Oscar despite different question marks could be 'surprise' packages. Clopf and De Valira interest me the most of these. Clopf travelled well for a long time yesterday and is extremely highly thought of by his trainer who does well at Cheltenham, it won a top novice in Ireland last year and yet probably was not at his best and De Valira has form over many horses last year such as Catch Me and even yesterdays impressive winner, Sizing Europe, it travelled ok at Cheltenham last year but probably underperformed when down the field and the trainers lack of form at the time could expalin that. Anyway, imo it is an open event this year. Another bet, Clopf @ 25/1 20 pts e.w anticipating run tomorrow.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Champion Chase. Voy Por Ustedes ran well yesterday in bad conditions and under a big weight. It bids for back to back wins and a third festival win on the trot. It deserves credit for achieving that and probably does not get enough but I have always had the slight feeling that it is not quite top top class. It won the Arkle in 2006 when getting a crucial five pounds and won what turned out to be a poor Champion Chase when Well Chief fell and could even afford a bad mistake that really should have ended any chances of winning the race. The horses it beat are not World beaters. Well Chief was awesome on its re appearance even if it was flattered a touch by Ashley Brook going a suicidal pace before things did not go its way at the end of the year. The question is if it can re create its form of a few years ago because if it does then it will be so difficult to beat. It would not totally surprise me if that say after running in the Tingle Creek its kept completely fresh until Cheltenham. Twist Magic was running a stormer in what I think was a very good Arkle last year and has boosted his claims since with good wins especially at Aintree. At the moment, this is the one I favour mostly as I feel there are doubts about Well Chief's ability to find its old form, if VPU is absolutely top draw and that this one has even more improvement in him. Of the notable others, there are doubts as to whether MWDS will run at this trip which is unlikely, Monets Garden may not even go to Cheltenham and Dont Push It, who I rate highly, I think will go up in trip.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Gold Cup. This does look to be a very strong race unlike possibly some of the others. Kauto Star in many ways is a modern staying chaser who has a real turn of foot and often travels extremely well. Last year it did it all despite some jumping errors. The main question I would have is whether it is a complete stayer. Last years Gold Cup was ridden at a slow pace (Beef and Salmon led them for a long time and that is no front runner) and not really a true test of stamina whcih may have asked question of Nicholls star chaser. If Denman in it this year, it will be more of a test which means there is a potential scenario of both Nicholls horses ruining each others chances or mainly Kauto Star's. However Kauto Star's last run was interesting as it did not travel as well as it has been doing like a 2m horse but looked more of a stayer and if that is the case then it will be difficult to beat imo as it is more likely to properly stay a strongly ridden race and yet should still have a bit of its speed left. There are many others to consider. Exotic Dancer got better and better last year but could not quite catch Kauto Star and despite being a good horse, imo in what looks a hot Gold Cup it could find a few too good and it might just want to improve its jumping a bit because for all Kauto Star's mistakes, this one can make equally as bad if not worse errors. My Way De Solzen won a very good Arkle last year even if two very lively rivals fell and proved the year before that it stays when winning the World Hurdle. Like Kauto Star it might be one who has the 2m speed and can 'stay' the Gold Cup distance. It is in many ways a dark horse and looks an obvious threat and will be interesting to see how it runs before the Gold Cup because if it does struggle to stay it could still run elsewhere. Aces Four who made a quietly un noticed re appearance, challenged Denman for a long time at Cheltenham and could be another dark horse but I have a suspicion that this one could go to the RyanAir. Taranis is another one who we are not sure what it will be aimed at but it is a very hard giving horse and the type who I could see running very well if does run and clues will be given at Haydock next week and Kempton next month. Dont Push It I think is more of a staying type with the 2m kick like KS and MWDS and is another dark horse but again could go for the Ryan Air as could Another Promise who won a top Irish race that often provides good clues for Cheltenham. Other returning horses to consider are Star de Mohasion who is still unexposed and if they come back, Kicking King and War of Attrition who imo might find it hard. Overall a top race in prospect and if I had to pick one I might go for Kauto Star in particular if he can can show that he can properly stay as suggested LTO over a shorter trip. Just a few thought for all these four races but of course a lot can change and some of these horses might not even be there come March.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Newbury 2.05 Blazing Bailey 8/1 10 pts e.w A big price here imo. Ok a poor run last time but a couple of the trainers horses have needed the run this year and the trainer has indicated it has worked well since. Loves it softer and has beaten this lot before when it is more of a test and I really think it has improvement especially considering it is quite young which on the World Hurdle evidence, would not have to be too much. A real decent e.w price and i would be a touch surprise if it gave anything like its running it was not in the three at least. 2.40 Denman 5/1 10 pts e.w. I have highlighted how concerns of the trainer regarding fitness are a big problem as well as the weight but it has drifted to an e.w price and I would be a bit disappointed if it could not at least be in the four for a horse they are talking Gold Cups about. Also it will be a test and will be made a test for the rest of the field so it could well gallop many of these out of this. Dom D'Orgeval 20/1 7.5 pts e.w I wanted Pipe to show improved form and he did yesterday and I prefer this one to his other and probably better handicapped rival. It has a fair bit of weight and all to do with others in the field from the RSA race but it did really run its true race that day imo and the form with L'Antartique and after the Cheltenham race are a better indication plus it was a good hurdler so chase form is limited relatively at the moment but improvement expected. I expect the conditions and race style will suit as it should be staying on. 3.15 Patricksnineteenth 9/1 7.5 pts e.w A bit of a veteran these days but proved in the spring that it is still capable and possibly not too badly handicapped and if it can even get close to its old form then definite chances again today. Chief Yeoman 12/1 7.5 pts e.w Decent hurdler and a mixed chaser so far. Some runs that are decent and hint at ability and others that do not really but the key for me was in the Jewson won by L'Antartique when it was travelling as well as L'Antartique in coming through the field before a mistake. Has to reverse form with the fav but a fair bit still to come. Newcastle 12.40 Berwick Law 11/8 15 pts win. Decent bumper wisn before the eye catching of all eye catching runs lto when fourth and if it wanted to, it could have if not won against the useful Marleybow, then at least been second. Having basically been eased into the race that day it will come on today and it should go very close today if given a chance. 3.00 Bob Bob Bobbin 8/1 7.5 pts e.w Backed it last time and was travelling ok and then just blew out. Was not going to back it today but trainer was very positive and indicated it may have needed the run that time despite me thinking at the time that it would like going fresh. A difficult race to call but willing to give it another chance. 3.30 Clopf 8/1 7.5 pts e.w Potentially may even go out further as it is in many ways an unknown but considering I think thi shas some CH claims a bold run expected. Good form early last year in ground that may end up being similar and form that is backed up by Aitmatov. Missed Cheltenham but the fact it could be fav ahead of the Cheltenham winner next time when it won speaks volumes. Also has had a couple of preps so should be spot on. Travelled very well on both starts and should do so again today and if it finds, big chances for the season ahead. Fairyhouse 12.55 Catch Me 15 pts win @ SP Seasonal debut today but providing it does not need the run too much it is a stand out pick. Good form early last year that looks possibly even better now, has had some mishaps but the classy third at Cheltenham showed a lot of ability and one that could go well throughout the season.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Staked 1160 pts Returned 1072.96 pts P/L -87.04 Strike rate 34.96% (36/103.) A few went in today but very slightly down for the day. For the ante post bets not brilliant. Blazing Bailey got a soft lead and ran well for a long time before a mistake ended any hope. The winner looked very good and is a worthy fav for WH. I would not give up hope on it yet though. Clopf again travelled very well but found little and faded badly. Looks though that the CH hurdle picture is still very open and I may post something on that tomorrow.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 I cant see this live but Fairyhouse 1.40 Kazal 15 pts win @ SP if below 5/1 or 7.5 pts e.w if not. Ok I do not have evidence of its chasing ability but to be thrown into such a deep race speaks volumes and it really appreciates soft/heavy ground as shown with terrific hurdles form whcih continues to get boosted. Some notable rivals may want it quicker. 2.10 Aitmatov 3/1 10pts win Continues to improve from good form last year that includes the likes of Clopf which for me means everything is not quite adding up at the moment but nonetheless a top effort at a better class lto and it will like the extra trip imo, Macs Joy 6/1 5 pts e.w Steps up in trip which perhaps is a slight surprise as it rarely runs much further than 2m. Still it ran an ok debut race this year and can handle all ground really and has the real form in the whole CH picture from its second in 2006. If it can perform like that again I think it will win the weakish CH this year imo but of course that is still an if. So at 25/1 I am going 20 pts e.w for the CH. Strange it is up in trip today but it is till not threatening the WH trip at least this year and I do not think it will want too so I will take the price for the CH. Newbury 1.35 The Tother One @ SP 15 pts win. Slightly guessing as to how this one would go in the ground but nonetheless a top prospect and related to the useful Thisthatandtother. Looked a decent propspect on its first two runs which it both won and trainer preety confident. 2.40 Preacher Boy @ 13/2 7.5 pts e.w Emphasis on stamina today with the more testing ground and this one has lots of it as shown notably in the Hennessy last year when placed. It is doubtful as to if some others in the field have quite as much stamina and therefore at around this price definite e.w claims. Nicholls has a few more other chances who look fancied but not getting involved even though on repuatation they should go very close.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Hereford 1.10 Never so Blue 15 pts win @ 13/8 In the context of this race, its hurdle form stands out a lot and whilst it is unproven over jumps with just one outing, it could be nicely treated in an average race if it has anything like its hurling ability over fences. Trainer in good form too. 2.10 Shouldhavehadthat 7.5 pts e.w @ 7/1. When with Henderson a real hype horse who was talked of like it could go to the top, it has not worked out like that and has had some costly defeats but is moved up in trip today and that might just be the key as it has been a bit one paced as its efforts behind the Wylie owned horse who could be useful lto showed.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Win 1.10 Never so Blue 15 pt win @ SP. Putting it up again as it is quickly brought out again by the trainer who continues good form. It was well in the other day and despite penalty still looks decently handicapped and claimer takes some off. Slight doubts over the increased trip but it looked to be doing better work at the end the other day and as long as the quick re appearance does not take its toll, should go close again. 3.40 Emerald Wilderness 15 pt win @ SP. Put it up when third on hurdling debut following from a reasonable flat career. Should come on a lot for that run and run with a fair bit of credit that day. Trainer in good form and it has the experience over the chief threats of the Pipe and Hobbs horses of an actual run which could prove very important.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Exeter 2.45 Planet of Sound 15 pt win @ SP. The ground is the main worry here as softer ground is an unknown but on form and potential this one has a top chance today. Good run behind Marleybow and then an impressive win over The Package on its hurdle debut which has been boosted a lot since then by the seconds romp at Newbury last week.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 San 2.35 Will post more tomorrow but as far as the 2m division is concerned in general, Voy Pur Ustedes is a horse who I have never really regarded as an absolute superstar yet in March it will bid for three consecutive festival wins and back to back Champion Chases so it is obviously good and if it was to win the QMCC again I would unquestionably regard it as absolutely top class in the division. It is obviously a very good horse and could yet improve a bit but I just feel that it has had things go in its favour, getting the weight in the Arkle 06 and in the 07 QMCC after Well Chief fell what was it really beating? Newmill was possibly a bit fortunate the year before and was not in the same form and Ashley Brook still could have won if not for a fall at the last when staying on again. It made a huge mistake in that race that normally would rule out any horse of winning a race like that, yet it still could win. Is that paying extra credit to the horse for doing so or is it saying it was beating an average QMCC field. I would mainly side with the latter. Just my opinion. As for tomorrow it has a lot in its favour. Ground is not the question mark that it is for some others (Monets Garden probably better on good, Twist Magic unknown.) Twist Magic is the one I like most for the QMCC but I am a bit concerned about the ground for tommorrow. So I am going for my gut insticnt about Voy Por not being top top class and probably go for Ashley Brook 12.5 pts e.w. @ 6/1. It had two falls that arguably cost a QMCC as it was staying on and lto when it may well have not been caught in a top handicap agaisnt Monets Garden. However generally it is a sounder jumper than that recent record suggets and if it completes tomorrow it has a great chance of being in the three. It has romped in before in heavy ground so can take the ground and as well as galloping some of these to the ground tomorrow, it has been suggesting it can stay on having been headed and that could be very important. Appeals e.w at least.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 San 1.30 The Tother One @ 3/5 20 pts win On paper far too short for a competitive race but as it showed lto when it could have won by miles it is so well handicapped and was absolutely thrown in that day and despite penalty has huge claims again today. Also showed that day it ccould handle pretty testing conditions. 2.05 Moon over Miami @ 9/5 15 pts win Shortish but it was very impressive lto at Cheltenham against a decent field especially the second who I like. It was poor conditions that day so not concerened about the ground today and I think it can reverse earlier form from kempton 2.35 As well as Ashley Brook e.w I am laying Voy Por Ustedes 15 pts @ 2.32 for reasons highlighted earlier, mainly it is too short for a race where three others have very good claims and I have my suspicions that it might not be absolute top class. Could be proved wrong though. 3.10 Breedsbreeze @ 13/2 6 pts e.w A bit of an unknown here and for good connections has to be respected. I liked the win at Chepstow even if it was not a great race and the interesting thing for me was that Jim Lewis afterwards said he cant wait to see it on softer ground, he wont be waiting after today on the hurdle course and Oceanos des Obeaux @ 85 2.5 pts win on exhanges and 12 to place 3.5 pts Too big here imo. Early last year it showed it loved the mud and looked a real prospect, ok disappointed since but lto it ran better than indicated, travelled so well for a long time in testing conditions before completely blowing out, dropped back in trip today could well help. Navan 1.25 Aranleigh @ SP 15 pts win. McCoy very interestingly here today and despite Perce Rock this I think is the main reason. Beat Mad Fish who was the hype horse for last years bumper on testing ground which shows no problem before a very good third in the bumper at Cheltenham when it continued to plug on. I thought it was a decent win on its hurdle debut when getting a narrow victory over probably too short a trip and with the lack of any run.

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Re: WoodyTHFC Jumps 2007/2008 Posting selections now but will take prices at around 10/11 tomorrow with pts etc. if I can still be awake through the fight, early Hong Kong racing, the cricket, going to the Lane and then the hospital in the evening. Some day. Punch (inspection) 2.05 The Listener It will be testing ground here and form on this sort of ground will be vital and Alner's horse certainly has that as its exploits in Ire. showed with impressive and gallant runs in testing conditions. Ultimately it perhaps does not quite stay the whole 3m completely and the trainer did indicate that possibly a drop back in trip will be more ideal and in testing ground for sure. If Jacob stays on, every chance. 2.35 Le Toscan It was showing promise as a hurdler last year and also showed it can act on the testing ground if not perhaps disappointing but the key run was over fences lto. The top three were clear that day and look above average, the second has already boosted that form and this one can do so as well. 3.05 Fingeronthepulse Again formline with the above as this one was in third of the leadaway group but this one should relish the testing ground if the way it could demolish hurdle fields in similar condition are anything to go by. It was a pretty useful hurdler and if it can take to the chasing game as suggested by the promise of that run, it could be one to follow and pick up some good races. Kelso 12.50 Mr Strachan Only four runners but no problem for this one as it has dealt with only 3 this year already. The concern is if this gets tactical but impressive so far over chases with a run behind L'Antartique in the 3 runner race and then behind Tidal Bay when clear of the rest. Every chance. 2.50 Patricksnineteenth e.w If e.w is possible I have to plump for this as it still looks capable of form showed when younger and if that is the case as suggested by return to form last year then it should go well. Fell lto last week but as long as confidence is not affected too much, then every chance with possibly the still progressive Three Mirrors the danger. The trainer sends out a few today and hi slot are running quite well. Warwick 1.10 Benetwood Skinny odds but I can see why. Decentish hurdler but thought always that this was more a chaser and on its debut it ran pretty well in third especially for lack of experience. The Johnson winner won a two runner race since and looks a very good prospect as does Modicum, the second, who as we know in the thread, has form with Hobbs Hill who has since gone on and should be a genuine contender come March. Very hopeful of a win. 3.10 Francines Boy e.w Taking a bit of a chance with one who the RP indicates is harshly handicaped and does not have a good winning record or a good record in general fresh and the trip has some doubts. Enough negatives already but it has suggested at times that a longer trip could be benefical, the run two starts ago suggested that to me at least, and if the extra distance brings any improvement then place claims at a price for sure.

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