RussP Posted June 10, 2007 Share Posted June 10, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends System seems to be a bit shaky lately , but i've every faith we'll hit a vein of form shortly. Not tomorrow though as nothing fits the bill. Well done to MOWGLI, RUSS P + INSIDE INFO tips , really on fire just know and i'd point anyone who hasn't followed them to start RIGHT NOW !!!! Thanks mate:ok But you're still well in profit and it's a matter of time before those winners are flowing again. I have every faith in you:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 11, 2007 Author Share Posted June 11, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends TUESDAY 3.15 + 3.45 SALISBURY 3Y-O MAIDEN 2006 Sama Dubai (2) 3 8-12 10/1 Sir Michael Stoute Ryan Moore 82 2005 Ocean Gift (11) 3 9-0 3/1 D R C Elsworth T Quinn 79 2005 Macaulay (3) 3 9-0 11/4 R Charlton Steve Drowne 91 2004 Camberwell (10) 3 8-11 12/1 T G Mills Robert Miles 81 2003 Mujarad (11) 3 9-0 7/2F J H M Gosden R Hills 81 2003 Whatabob (3) 3 9-0 13/8F T G Mills A Clark 80 2002 Fine Arts (7) 3 8-9 8/13F B W Hills Michael Hills 73 2001 Royal Millennium (10) 3 9-0 4/6F M R Channon T Quinn 82 2001 Binary File (10) 3 9-0 EvensF J H M Gosden Richard Hughes 78 2000 Shalimar (2) 3 8-9 13/8F J H M Gosden Jimmy Fortune 80 10 out of 10 won by a horse in the top 4 in the betting. 7 out of 10 had previous racecourse experience, all more than twice. 6 out of that 7 were placed 2nd - 3rd LTO. 6 of those 7 had ran that season , between 12-40 days. 7 out of 10 races won by a COLT/GELDING. 7 of the 7 with a prev run , ran over 7f LTO. DRAW - 5 won from stall 10 or 11 , 4 won from stalls 2 or 3 .The other winner came from stall 7 in a 9 runner race. J GOSDEN - 3 winners. DIV 1 - Looking at the top 3 in the RP f/CAST and we can discount CAPE COBRA , although a GOSDEN horse, he has only ran once and is drawn 1. The FAV , CAPE VELVET, and 2ndFAV , NICE TO KNOW are pretty hard to separate - both FILLIES [ 3 have won from 10 ] , ran more than once , ran at 7f LTO , both within the time limit . CAPE VELVET was 2nd LTO while NICE TO KNOW could only come 4th . However , despite that slight advantage i'm going to go for NICE TO KNOW as her trainer [ E DUNLOP ] has had 3 wins and 4 x 2nds in the last 2 weeks , while CAPE VELVETS stable has had 0 wins , 0 seconds in the past fortnight. DIV 2 - Discount the 3rd FAV , MISS GIBRALTAR who makes her debut today . Again it's hard to separate the FAV - APPLEBY ,[ filly , ran twice, 3rd LTO , 7f LTO , Drawn 11 and GOSDEN trained ] from the 2nd FAV ,ESTEEM MACHINE , [ Colt, ran 5 times [inc 2 AW] ; 2nd LTO , 7f , drawn 6. However the trainer factor and draw makes me side with APPLEBY. :hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 12, 2007 Author Share Posted June 12, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Both unplaced :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 12, 2007 Author Share Posted June 12, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends BEVERLEY 4.50 7F 3Y-O+ MAIDEN 9 out of 10 in the top 3 in betting [ only 1 FAV ] 7 out of 10 won by a 3y-old 8 out of 10 won by a Southern trainer. The last 8 winners had ran at least once that season 7 of those were placed 2nd - 5th LTO [ other was 8th in Grp 3 race] All 8 had ran between 13 - 24 days previously Surprisingly NONE were drawn over 8 at a course where a high draw has such a considered adavantage . RED BLOSSOM [2ND FAV] makes it's debut here and with M PRESCOTT the trainer it pays to follow his stable on their 2nd run ,IMO. The probable fav TRIVIA and 3rd fav KNOW THE LAW have similar past trends and at the forecasted odds then KNOW THE LAW gets the vote. Trivia is drawn 9 which on past results is probobly a negative . KNOW THE LAW is drawn 6 and only finished 8th LTO . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evad Posted June 13, 2007 Share Posted June 13, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends unlucky m8,.. :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 13, 2007 Author Share Posted June 13, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends :ok evad KNOW THE LAW 2ND @ 12/1 beaten S-Hd by TRIVIA :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 14, 2007 Author Share Posted June 14, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 6.50 GOODWOOD 3Y-O MAIDEN 1M 8 out of 8 were in the top 3 in the betting 8 out of 8 were COLTS/GELD 7 out of 8 had ran that season Those 7 had finished between 2nd-6th LTO 6 out of 7 ran over 1m LTO [other was 7f] Out of the top 4 in the betting ,the 2nd + jt 3rd FAV [ royal secret] are FILLIES , so we can discount them. The RP F/cast FAV - CASTARA BAY - ran over 10f on it's last 2 outings so thats a negative for me. DREAM OF FORTUNE - Colt , 1 run this season , finished 5th over 1m LTO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 15, 2007 Author Share Posted June 15, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends dream Of Fortune Nr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 17, 2007 Author Share Posted June 17, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 7.15 WARWICK 5F MAIDEN FILLIES STAKES 10 out of 10 were the top 3 in the betting [ 4 clear+1 jt Fav , 4 x 2nd Fav] 8 out of 10 drawn low. 7 out of 10 had racecourse experince and had been placed no worse than 5th in any of their outings. None had ran more than 4 times. 6 of those 7 had ran between 8 - 23 days previously. After 6 outings the probable FAV , SINEAD OF AGLISH , is discounted. Jt 2nd Fav's FAR GONE + CUTE ASS have both racecourse experience and were placed LTO , the one thing that separates them is the days since they last ran and therefore the nod goes to CUTE ASS [21 days] , compared to FAR GONES 38 days. 86 BETS 36 WINS 19 PLACED PROFIT = 150.06PTS YIELD - 17.45% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 18, 2007 Author Share Posted June 18, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends CUTE ASS 2nd @ 9/2 Btn a HEAD by SINEAD OF AGLISH :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 18, 2007 Author Share Posted June 18, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 3.30 THIRSK 3Y-OLD MAIDEN 10 out of 10 were in the top 2 in the betting. 8 out of 10 were trained by a Top Southern yard [ 1 - m johnston ] 10 out of 10 had racecourse experience 9 of those had ran that season. 7 of those 9 were placed 2nd-4th in at least one of their outings. 9 out of 10 had ran between 12-30days previously [ the last 6 ran between 12- 21 days] The 2nd FAV - TREES OF GREEN make his debut here so go with the FAV - MIAS BOY ,trained by Chappel-Hyam , ran once , finished 3rd time before last 15 days ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mighty Magyar Posted June 18, 2007 Share Posted June 18, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends CUTE ASS 2nd @ 9/2 Btn a HEAD by SINEAD OF AGLISH :wall Unlucky there seemed to stumble in final furlong, may have been winner otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 19, 2007 Author Share Posted June 19, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends MIAS BOY 1ST @ 1/2F :loon Shorter odds than i expected but after the run we've been on it's good to get a winner :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 19, 2007 Share Posted June 19, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Back on track mate, well done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evad Posted June 19, 2007 Share Posted June 19, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends they are all welcome! well done! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 21, 2007 Author Share Posted June 21, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 6.35 NEWMARKET 6F 2Y-O MAIDEN 11 out of 11 won by a COLT/GELDING 8 out of 11 won by a horse in the top 3 in the betting 10 out of 11 were drawn 6 or under 7 out of 11 were making their racecourse debut. Only 4 clear trends to go on but they help discount the Jt Fav , SHIFTING STAR , who has 1 run [ a negative in this] and that was a Class 5 event , 2 grades below this race. The probable 3rd Fav is CLOSE TO PARADISE , A filly :( That leaves us with the GODOLPHIN trained , RIO DEL PLATA , A Colt making his debut here , will probobly start in the top 2 in the betting and is drawn in the Number 2 stall :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 23, 2007 Author Share Posted June 23, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SELECTIONS = 89 WINNERS = 37 PLACED = 21 PROFIT TO 10PT LEVEL STAKE = 135.06 YIELD = 15.17% Good morning all [ if there's anyone following this anymore that is !! ] Just been let out of the asylum after being admitted for trying to pick a winner of a 2y-old Maiden using past trends and going for a horse making it's racecourse debut :loon. Yes , i think it's time to make a few tweaks to the selection process and tighten things up a bit. From today i will not be putting up any obvious odds-on shots and will be trying to find those races which have a really STRONG trend to their past results. ASCOT 3.05 HARDWICKE STKS 1M4F GRP 2 4Y-O+ NOT a great race for FAVS as there has only been one succes in the last 10 runnings of this Group 2 event. Not a great deal to go on with regards to the age range - 4y-o = 4 wins 5y-o + 6y-o = 3 wins each. One of the strongest trends has been the success of winners whose previous outing was in the CORONATION CUP at the Derby meeting and only one runner from that runs today - SCORPION. None of the past 10 winners had ran more than 3 times that season. Only one had not ran that Flat season. Apart from that debutant none had ran more than 33 days previously. 8 had won at todays DISTANCE of 1m 4f. ALL had won at GROUP CLASS level. M JOHNSTON [4 wins] + M STOUTE [ 1win] are past winning trainers who have representatives in todays race. Apart from the Coronation Cup the other race which has supplied more than 1 win has been SANDOWN'S BRIGADIER GERARD STAKES [2 wins ] SUMMARY --------- SCORPION - Must have a great chance adding this Group 2 event to his tally of wins .The race's only GROUP 1 winner [ 3 times] will relish the rain-softened ground and will have no problem with the Distance. Has only had 2 runs this season and ,as have already pointed out ,has ran in the most successful 'trial' for this one in winning Epsom's CORONATION CUP. ADMIRALS CRUISE - Has a Group 3 win to his name but has not been out since his 2nd in the Jockey Club Stakes 44 days ago.The winner, 3rd+4th placed of that race have all been beaten since.The ground shouldn't be a problem as he has won 3 times on ground softer than Good. MAARAHEL - With 5 Group 3's and this race last year to his record he should give the FAV the most to do ,on paper at least. However he's not sure to enjoy the Soft going and going by his past record has probably won his share of races for this season. MIGHTY - This ex-All Weather racer could be the fly in the ointment, although he needs to prove himself on a few points but seems to be improving hand -over fist. He has not won at Group level , not won over 10f and not won on the ground. However he has finished 2nd , beaten a SH-HD , in the other 'trial race' the BRIGADIER GERARD STAKES , behind Take-a-bow on GD-SFT He was 2nd behind MAARAHEL in the JOHN PORTER [1m4f ], only beaten a NK but was in receipt of 6lb that day. Of the others - AKAREM , BLUE BAJAN , DIAMOND QUEST and LINAS SELECTION have no Group wins and/or ran over the 33 day limit . SCORPION should win this and is the selection using the trends , but MIGHTY appeals for a E/W bet at around 16/1 if the FAV fails. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 23, 2007 Author Share Posted June 23, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends LINAS SELECTION NR - If SCORPION starts at odds-on it's no bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 23, 2007 Author Share Posted June 23, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends MAARAHEL 1ST 10/3 SCORPION 2ND 4/5f MIGHTY 3RD 10/1 No bet as SCORPION was odds on , unfortunate about the NR as that meant that only the first 2 were paid out for E/W bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 23, 2007 Author Share Posted June 23, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 8.00 LINGFIELD 6F 3Y-O+ MAIDEN This race is being run on the Turf course and , as usual , it's the top 3 in the betting that interest us with 7 out of the last 9 winners were in that bracket. 3y-olds hold sway with 8 out of 9 winning. A previous run that season seems to be essential as ALL previous 9 winners have had an outing , with 7 of those being placed 2nd-4th in at least one of those outings. A fairly recent run is an advantage with a range of 9 - 29 days since their last outing. DRAW - Good going is forecast , but if the rain arrives that can cause the bias to be in favour of HIGH numbers according to the RFO Flat guide. The last time there was as many runners in this race the first 3 home were drawn 15 ,12 and 11. Assuming the draw advantage is HIGH then the two to consider JIMMY STYLES [ could be doubtful runner] and the filly GIMME SOME LOVIN'. Both have ran once and were placed in those races with GIMME SOME LOVIN appearing to have been a shade unlucky in running , heres the comments from the R POST - Gimme Some Lovin slowly into stride, behind, headway and not clear run over 1f out, switched left and ran on strongly final furlong, going on close home. Drawn slightly better in 12 , JIMMY STYLES in 10 , the vote goes to GIMME SOME LOVIN. Looking for an outsider then the 4y-old ,EXOTIC VENTURE could be the one , Drawn 18 of the 18 runners and placed 3rd in it's one run this season it could run well at a big price :hope i've got the draw right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 30, 2007 Author Share Posted June 30, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends GIMME SOME LOVIN' - UNP :eyes 3.00 NEWMARKET If this doesn't win i'm giving up:rollin Only a selection if it goes odds against ; MUNSEF , The only horse which fits all the trends for this race . No Filly/Mare has won in 10 runnings. 6 Favs , either jt or outright ,have won in that time. 9 runnings have been won by either a 4 or 5 y-old. 6 had won that season. No debutant has won in 10 runnings All had ran no more than 4 times that season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 10, 2007 Author Share Posted November 10, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends OK going to give this another go , but only for weekends and using the Trends section from the RACING+ FOOTBALL OUTLOOK stats to give me as little work as possible :rollin 2.35 DONCASTER - positives -------- 8 out of 15 were 2nd/3rd favs 11 /15 finished in first 3 LTO 14/15 won in at least one of last 6 runs 5y-old + have won 9/15 from 89 runners [10%] negatives --------- only 2 favs in 15 only 1 winner over 16/1 Applying all these leaves us with GALEOTA - stats = 2nd LTO , 4th fav in betting at time of writing , won 2 of last 6 and is a 5y-old . GALEOTA has a 3/3/1 placing over 6f from 12 runs On todays ground has a 3/2/1 from 10 runs Class-wise has a 3/2/2 placed record from 12 runs 3.10 DONC - positives -------- 14/15 won at least 1 of last 6 runs 12/15 finished in first 3 LTO 11/15 finished in the first 4 in both of last 2 outings 14/15 either won or were beaten no more than 4l LTO negatives --------- only 1 winner priced 33/1 or over Only 2 favs [inc jt] from 17 qualifiers. Only 3 /15 were aged 5y-old+ Apply all these and we're left with NEW GUINEA - stats = won 3 of last 6 , 1st LTO , won last 2 , odds = 14/1 and is a 4y-old. DIST winner and ground no problems . 2.35 - WINCANTON positives -------- 7 favs [inc jt ] from 15 7/15 won LTO 12/15 placed first 3 LTO 10/15 were from the bottom 4 in the weights P NICHOLLS has won 4 from 17 runners negatives --------- 2nd/3rd favs only won 1/15 Bit of a no-brainer here but the selection is ABRAGANTE -stats = Looking like starting fav , won LTO , 2nd bottom weight . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 10, 2007 Author Share Posted November 10, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends BACK WITH A BIG BANG !!! GALEOTA 1ST @ 8/1 :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted November 10, 2007 Share Posted November 10, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Well done mate:clap:clap Great to see you giving it another go, and a super winner:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted November 10, 2007 Share Posted November 10, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends BACK WITH A BIG BANG !!! GALEOTA 1ST @ 8/1 :loon Well Done Mate.:clap:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 10, 2007 Author Share Posted November 10, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheers guys :ok NEW GUINEA , unlucky in running IMO , solid wall of horses in front of him coming into the straight with not even a glimpse of daylight , came off the rails trying to find a gap and ran on to finish 5th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 10, 2007 Author Share Posted November 10, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends As the fat american rock'n'roll singer once said 2 out of 3 ain't bad :nana ABRAGANTE 1ST @ 15/8 F , was 2/1 before the off !!, a lot bigger than i thought it would be . Pissed it to be honest :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 10, 2007 Author Share Posted November 10, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends p.s Gawd bless the RACING+ FOOTBALL OUTLOOK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted November 10, 2007 Share Posted November 10, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends today just shows that the trends are worth following, pity you didnt have my Malt or mash for a full house:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodie Posted November 10, 2007 Share Posted November 10, 2007 Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Nicework jtw1 :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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