JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[thomo14]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Well done was on thanks for the winner keep it going :clap

[RussP]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Brilliant mate, well done. Keep it up:clap:clap

[vivalevert]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends well done jt always enjot ur posts win lose or draw:cow

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Evening all :dude how are wyou all doing ?? 3 races are highlighted in the RFO trends section , 2 are on SUNDAY and 1 for SAT . SAT's race is the 3.40 at CHELTENHAM positives -------- 11/15 finished in the first 3 LTO 5-7 y-olds have won 8/15 [25%] 10 y-olds won 3/15 [14.3%] 10/15 raced in the same class of class LTO 3rd / 4th favs have won 6 [ from 28 qualifiers] negatives --------- 2nd favs have not won in 15 races Only 2 winners were priced over 10/1 Only one horse aged 5-7 runs tomorrow but it looks like being 10/1 + so i'm looking at D'ARGENT who is one of 2 horses that finished 1-3 LTO . D'ARGENT is priced as 4th fav in the RP f/cast , ran in this class LTO and 10 y-olds have a decent strike rate .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends D'ARGENT - UNP @ 9/2 :eyes 2 AT CHELTENHAM TODAY - 1.10 ----- positives 13/15 were in the top 2 in the betting [ 7 outright favs ] 14/15 finished in the first 3 LTO. 11/ 15 all completed the course on all last 6 starts. 11/15 were aged 6 or 7 y-olds. 11/15 were fav LTO P NICHOLS has had 4 wins fron only 10 runners. negatives only 1 winner with odds over 8/1 has been successful Sticking strictly to the stats leaves us with N HENDERSONS PAPINI. Currently 2nd fav on Betfair , 1st LTO , Completed all prev 5 starts , 6y-old, and Odds-on Fav LTO . 2.55 ---- positives 14/15 finished 1st or 2nd LTO . 15/15 all priced 9/2 or under LTO 13/15 aged 5 or 6 y-old 12/15 were either FAV or 2nd FAV LTO 9/15 won LTO The first 3 in the betting have won 10/15 negatives 4 y-olds have only won once from 15. Applying the first 4 stats leaves us with OSANA + LEAD ON and as both are around the 10.0 mark i suggest backing both.

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Applying the first 4 stats leaves us with OSANA + LEAD ON and as both are around the 10.0 mark i suggest backing both.

same as mine today JTW, i also have another 2 that i kept in to make up a decent 4 againstg the field.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends PAPINI - UNP :eyes OSANA 2ND @ 8/1 , A valiant attempt to carry top-weight in appalling conditions LEAD ON unp @ 4/1f , Subject of a massive gamble but never really threatened at any time.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Unfortunatly one of the 2 races highlighted for SAT was the PETERBOROUGH CHASE at Huntingdon but this has cut up to a 3 horse race so i'm ignoring it . ASCOT 1.50 - positives 14/15 in the top 3 in the betting [ 9 favs] 13/15 were 7/2 or under Favs priced between EVENS - 15/8 have won 6 times from only 7 qualifiers 9/15 were 6 or 7y-olds [ 42 runners of that age - 21% sr ] 9y-olds + have won 3 from 10 runners [ 30%] Basically it's a case of considering only those priced 7/2 or under which includes AFSOUN , HARDY EUSTACE and possibly DETROIT CITY [ only if he starts at 7/2 or under though [ around 7/2 - 4/1 ] From those i nominate HARDY EUSTACE as the most likely winner , won this last year and like that victory , had a run on the flat previously before coming here .

[evad]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends nice winner

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Unfortunatly one of the 2 races highlighted for SAT was the PETERBOROUGH CHASE at Huntingdon but this has cut up to a 3 horse race so i'm ignoring it . ASCOT 1.50 - positives 14/15 in the top 3 in the betting [ 9 favs] 13/15 were 7/2 or under Favs priced between EVENS - 15/8 have won 6 times from only 7 qualifiers 9/15 were 6 or 7y-olds [ 42 runners of that age - 21% sr ] 9y-olds + have won 3 from 10 runners [ 30%] Basically it's a case of considering only those priced 7/2 or under which includes AFSOUN , HARDY EUSTACE and possibly DETROIT CITY [ only if he starts at 7/2 or under though [ around 7/2 - 4/1 ] From those i nominate HARDY EUSTACE as the most likely winner , won this last year and like that victory , had a run on the flat previously before coming here .

1st @ 3/1 :clap The trends for the BECHER CHASE [ 2.50 AINTREE - SUNDAY ] - 11/15 were in single figures , although 4 of the last 6 were 14/1 or over. 10/15 were placed 1st,2nd or 3rd LTO 8/15 were in the top 4 in the weights 5/15 were in the bottom 4 in the weights 9y-old+ have won 10/15 Those stats leave us with SILVER JACK , around 16/1 in betting , 2nd LTO 2nd bottom weight , 9 y-old and has a good record after a lenghty break. Worth an EW punt at odds with 19 due to run.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Feck !!!!!

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SILVER JACK gave jockey no chance of staying in the saddle when clouting the Chair :cry Winner was MR POINTMENT , 2nd topweight and only beaten 3/4 l into 4th LTO and also returned at single figure [ 15/2 ] . :\ Story so far - selections = 9 winners = 3 @ 8/1 , 3/1 +15/8 place = 1 unp = 4 didn't finish = 1 1pt win on each returned profit of 6.88pt

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Browsing through the Racing Post site and naturally had a quick look at the trends for Tuesday and found this one - PROCAS DE THAIX ,will probably be odds-on but this is a race where the Favs have a record of 7 wins [6 clear+1jt] from the previous 9 runnings. Trained by N Henderson who has ran 5 in this over 9 seasons with 3 winning and the other 2 finishing 2nd. Another stat in its favour is that 4 y-olds with a starting price of 3/1 or under have a record of - 3 wins from 5 qualifiers [ other 2 were 2nd + 3rd] Would guess it'll start around 1/2 so could be worthwhile kicking off your acca with it.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends PROCAS DE THAIX 1st @ 2/7 fav :unsure A winner's a winner i suppose , it was 1.61 on BETFAIR when i wrote it last night .

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

PROCAS DE THAIX 1st @ 2/7 fav :unsure A winner's a winner i suppose ' date= it was 1.61 on BETFAIR when i wrote it last night .

i had it in my stats thread also JTW & it was 4/7 this morning! They backed it off the boards but it didnt win convincingly!

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Hopefully this one will be a winner at better odds , although still Fav. 12.40 CHEPSTOW - FOREST PENNANT This race has been won 7 times by the FAV in 9 seasons Trainer P NICHOLLS has won it 5 times from 9 5y-olds have won 8 from 9. FOREST PENNANT is FAV , A 5Y-OLD and trained by P NICHOLS .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends FOREST PENNANT 2nd @ 11/10 f :eyes Only beaten a diminishing 1/2 L , but beaten none the less.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SAT ---- NEWBURY 2.05 - Positives - 12/15 were in the top 2 in the betting 10/15 were 1st or 2nd LTO 14/15 ran in at least one Grade 1 race in it's career 13/15 won at least once in it's last 3 outings 13/15 aged 6-8yold 6 of the last 8 winners carried 11:8 negatives - 1/15 aged over 9y-old 1/15 were over 8/1 With INGLIS DREVER finishing 3rd LTO as well as doubts over the ground and distance the selection falls upon BLACK JACK KETCHUM who is currently 2nd fav , won LTO , has ran in Grade 1 company and is an 8y-old carrying 11:8. NEWBURY 3.25 - positives - 9/15 were in the top 2 in the betting However 3 from the last 7 were between 12/1 to 16/1 !! 10/15 had not run for over 49 days 12/15 had ran in at least one Grade 1 event 13/15 aged 4 to 6y-old negatives - 0/15 had ran within the last 14 days Applying the odds , 14 day and the Grade 1 trends leaves us with the probable FAV POQUELIN . 3.30 NEWCASTLE - positives - 10/16 were FAVS [ inc jts] 13/14 won at least once in the last 3 outings 9/14 had not ran for over 49 days negatives - 1/14 won by 2nd or 3rd FAV LTO placed 7th or worse only won 2/14 10/1 + only won 1/14 KATCHIT gets the nod but only just , it has won it's last 3 and will be FAV [ 8 from last 9 were clear or jt] However it's only a 4y-old [ 0 wins from 4 runners ] , the other horse that came close was BLYTHE KNIGHT who fits the age and LTO trends but looks like starting 2nd or 3rd fav and the stable seems out of form.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends HENNESSY GOLD CUP --------------------- Not highlighted in the trends section of the RFO but the BY THE NUMBERS article in the same paper gives us a few clues and coupled with the ATR microsite for the race we can get a selection 19/22 carried UNDER 11:00 12/15 won LTO 18/19 were placed 1st or 2nd LTO 2nd season runners have won 6 from the last 8 10/13 were in the top 4 in the betting The last 9 runnings have been won by a 6 to 8y-old ABRAGANTE narrowly gets the nod over NEW ALCO as the BADGER BEER CHASE has been a decent pointer in the past.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends BLACK JACK KETCHUM - NR ABRAGANTE - UNP POQUELIN - UNP KATCHIT - 3RD @ 5/4 Poor this weekend i'm afraid :sad

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Hopefully the trends can come give us at least one winner at SANDOWN on TINGLE CREEK day :hope 2.05 ---- positives - 13/14 were in the top 2 in the betting 12/14 had won at least once in their last 2 outings 13/14 had never fell/unseated 7 from last 8 had ran at CHELT in either of prev 2 runs 7/8 had ran between 20-32 days previously negatives - 0/14 were over 8/1 0/14 were over 8y-old Ok , so it's a bit of a no-brainer [again] but the selection falls on the probable FAV - MOON OVER MIAMI . 2.35 ---- positives - 12/15 were in the top 3 in the betting 13/15 finished 1st/2nd LTO 13/15 were 1st/2nd FAV LTO negatives - 0/15 priced 8/1+ 1/15 finished 4th or worse LTO 3/15 ran at CHELT /ASCOT LTO Those stats from the RFO does'nt give us a lot to go on but i think if we look at PAUL NICHOLS record in this race we can oppose the FAV . Since 1999 his best priced runners have finished -1,2,3,1,2,2,1,1. So TWIST MAGIC is given the vote . 3.10 ---- positives - 9/14 were 1st LTO 13/14 won at least once in their last 6 outings 10/14 had won at least 3 times in thier career 9/14 were in the bottom 5 in the weights 13/14 were aged 4-6yolds negatives - 2/14 were FAVS 1/14 were 20/1+ 2/14 were in the top 5 of the handicap 0/14 had ran more than 49days previously 25 beaten FAVS have ran with NONE winning. WINGMAN fits the bill :hope

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends MOON OVER MIAMI - UNP - Clouted one of the fences down the back but to be honest when i seen it drifting in the betting i was not confident and don't think it would have won even after that mistake TWIST MAGIC - 1ST @ 5/1 :loon The maestro that is PAUL NICHOLLS strikes again . WINGMAN - Dead-heated for 3rd @ 9/2 , had every chance but not good enough , The winner did come from the bottom 5 in the handicap , had won LTO and was a 6y-old but was FAV , so it just failed to be the selection. However it was nice to get a winner :ok

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Selections from TRENDS section in the RFO only - SELECTIONS - 14 WINNERS - 4 PROFIT - 6.88pts to a 1pt level stake.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Apologies to anyone who follows this thread , but i've only had very limited internet access for the past couple of weeks .Things should be more reliable now :hope NEWBURY 2.40 CHALLOW HURDLE , ran 8 times since '98 8/8 WERE PRICED 3/1 OR UNDER 8/8 HAD WON AT LEAST ONCE THAT SEASON 8/8 FINISHED 1ST/2ND LTO 8/8 WERE FAV /2ND FAV LTO 8/8 HAD RAN IN A CL1-4 NOV HURDLE LTO 7/8 WERE AGED 5 OR 6 Y-OLD 5/8 WERE FAVS [iNC JT] 0/8 HAD RAN WITHIN 12 DAYS OF LAST OUTING 0/8 HAD MORE THAN ONE PLACING THAT SEASON Everything [Nearly] points to LIGHTNING STRIKE ,the one negative is the age [ only a 4y-old who have a record of 0/7 but there is a 2nd + 3rd in there ] It is FAV in the RP F/cast , has ran twice this season and won both , was FAV LTO , and ran in a Cl 1 Nov Hurdle LTO which was 22 days ago. 3.10 NEWBURY MANDARIN CHASE Only been ran 6 times since 1999. 6/6 WERE AGED 8Y-OLD + 6/6 WERE RETURNED AT ODDS BETWEEN 6/1 - 10/1 6/6 HAD WON AT LEAST 2 CHASE'S IN THEIR CAREER. 6/6 WERE RUNNING IN AT LEAST THEIR 3 SEAOSN OVER JUMPS. 5/6 HAD RAN NO MORE THAN TWICE THAT SEASON , 2 WERE FTO. 5/6 WERE IN THE TOP 3 IN THE WEIGHTS 0/6 FAVS HAVE WON , ONLY ONE 2ND FAV. Everything poins to BOSHAM MILL . Top weight , around 5th/6th in betting ,won 2 chases , 9 y-old , FTO this season , and in the veteran stage in their jumping career. Note - these are NOT selections based on the trends section of the RFO but i have tried to use their criteria to make the selections.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Both unplaced

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Didn't invest a great amount on BOSHAM MILL after it opened at 16's and drifted to 20's !! Whilst off-line the RFO highlighted some stats about jockey/trainer combinations to watch out for on the All-Weather at this time of the year. One of those highlighted was the combination of George Moore/George Baker at LINGFIELD. Those 2 had a 7/2 winner on Friday at the track and on Sunday they pair up in the 3.20 with ZERO COOL. Amongst the stats highlighted for the pair is the fact that over the past 10 years they have had 12 winners from 42 where there has been 11+ runners [ RFO surmises that Baker's style of riding suits larger fields ] and they have had 11 winners from 36 where the distance is between 7f - 10f. Both these apply for Sundays race .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends ZERO COOL - Plum LAST !!!!!! :\

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Well that was a quick year !! Tomorrow's Sandown card was one of the first to be highlighted on this thread [page 1 to be precise ] Here's the post for the TOLWORTH HURDLE that day - TOLWORTH HURDLE SANDOWN 2.40 -------------------------------------

YEAR	WINNER	AGE	WGT	SP	TRAINER	JOCKEY	RPR
2006	Noland	5	11-7	6/4F	P F Nicholls	Christian Williams	136
2005	Marcel	5	11-7	3/1	M C Pipe	Timmy Murphy	144
2004	Lingo	5	11-7	5/4F	Jonjo O´Neill	L Cooper	150
2003	Thisthatandtother	7	11-7	11/4	P F Nicholls	Timmy Murphy	148
2002	Miros	5	11-7	7/2	Jonjo O´Neill	N Williamson	151
2001	Iznogoud	5	11-7	11/1	M C Pipe	A P McCoy	144
2000	Monsignor	6	11-7	11/8F	M Pitman	N Williamson	154
1999	Behrajan	4	10-9	9/2	H D Daly	R Dunwoody	138
1998	French Holly	7	11-7	4/1	Ferdy Murphy	Andrew Thornton	154

AGE - 5 Y-OLDS seem to have the advantage here with 5 wins from 9 runnings the others being 4,6 +7. Betting anything over 9/2 is very risky ,in fact upon closer inspection the 9 runnings shown here have went to the 1st or 2nd favs 8 out of 9 times. All previous winners had won in their season and apart from MARCEL[9] none had raced more the 4 times in theat season. P NICHOLS has a very good record in this event having won it twice and been runner-up 3 times from 6 attempts. That unplaced effort was from a seasonal debutant.His other 5 runners had ran between 1-3 times and had won at least once. Apart from being a 6y-old , P.NICHOLS runner SILVERBURN must be respected as it fits into all other criteria. The danger should be the 5y-old Irish raider PIERCE ROCK but its the trainerform that sways it for me. RESULT - 1ST SILVERBURN , 2ND PIERCE ROCK The omens look good for BREEDSBREEZE continuing the good run of the NICHOLS stable in this event , but with that one due to start FAV it could be worthwhile to have a look at CALGARY BAY WHO IS VERY HIGHLY REGARDED BY TRAINER H KNIGHT. This one has ran only 4 times and has won once with three 2nd places . It's a 5y-old , has the very able AP McCOY on board and is currently 2nd Fav on BETFAIR. 2.05 SANDOWN - 2M CHASE G/S 7/8 were 8 or 9 y-olds 7/8 were in the top 3 in the betting 8/8 ran in Class 3 or above LTO 8/8 ran no worse than 6th LTO Northern raiders have a record of 2 wins from 6 runners . It's that last stat that makes me think that CALATAGAN might be worth an interest as it's trained in the NORTH by M JEFFERSON who doesn't have a great deal of runners at this track . It fits the rest of the stats and has a decent record on GOOD/ G-SOFT ground [ 4 wins from 14 ] and has won 2 Class 2 events . :hope

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends BREEDSBREEZE 1ST @ 6/4F, CALGARY BAY 3RD @ 4/1 Thought we had the forecast again !! Stuck with CALGARY BAY but NICHOLS shows the way again in this race. CALATAGAN unp :eyes , nice to discover from Jim Mcgrath that this one's record going right-handed was pretty poor and know we all know :cry Must try to look further into individual records :\

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SUNDAY ------- 1.10 SOUTHWELL - 6f MAIDEN 7/7 won by a 3 or 4y old 6/7 won by a horse from the top 3 in the betting Sir M Prescott has ran 3 in that time and 2 have won at odds of 7/2 + 4/1 [other was 5th of 15 @ 14/1] The 3y-old BE FREE represents the stable and looks like starting FAV or roundabout. PLUMPTON 1.25 has been won by the FAV in all 5 runnings and the N Henderson trained IT'S A DREAM .