JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends BE FREE unp , opened around 5/1 and drifted out to an sp of 17/2 , so luckily it was a small bet for me. IT'S A DREAM a well beaten 2nd [5/6f] to the 2nd fav [11/10]

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends MONDAY - TAUNTON - 2.10 2M3F NOV H'CAP CHASE Another noted from last season . No 5y-old has won in 9 runnings [ 5 have tried ] 7y-olds have won 7 8y-olds have won 2 NO FAVS have won in 9 runnings Mondays renewal see's 3 5y-olds taking part and if we then discount the probable FAV and the 9y-old outsider we are left with the P HOBB'S trained 8y-old BUSY ISIT. This one is making it's Chase debut and has won a NH Flat race over 17f and a Maiden Hurdle over 21f so the distance of this race [ 19f ] should not be a problem. It has certainly disappointed in it's 3 races [ all hurdles ] since those wins but :hope the bigger obstacles can bring out the best of this one ,

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Excuse No 3,578 - Technically speaking we got the winner as SOMETHING WELLS drifted out from 6/4 to 2/1 2ND FAV and , of course was a 7y-old so the stats were correct . BUSY ISIT was well beaten into 3rd @ 8/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends :hope WARWICK goes ahead 2.30 3m5f h'cp chase 8/8 carried 11:01 or under 8/8 won at least at class 3 level [ hur or chase ] in thier career 8/8 finished 1st,2nd or 3rd on at least one of their last 2 outings 8/8 started at odds of 12/1 or under LTO 7/8 were aged 8y-old + 6/8 had won at least one H'cap chase 1/9 was won by the FAV STRONG RESOLVE ticks all the boxes [ with the possible exception of the starting price ] , certainly a decent E.W chance imo

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends An admirable , but well beaten , 5th @ 16/1

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends LEOPARDSTOWN - SUNDAY =------------------------= 1.20 2M5F NOVICE CHASE 7/9 won by 1st or 2nd FAV 6/9 won by a 7y-old , although last years winner was a 6y-old and there had only been 8 runners of that vintage in previous years. 6/7 had won that season. 6/7 had ran at LEOPARDSTOWNS XMAS meeting. PERCE ROCK is the selection , hope it's fall LTO doesn't have an effect . 4.00 NH FLAT RACE We got the 12/1 winner of this last year so :hope Only 1 FAV in 9 has won No filly has won in 9 ED HALES [3] and TJ TAFFE [2] have won 5 of the previous 6 runnings of this race . With HALES looking like having the FAV [ ASTUTE APPROACH ] it could be worthwhile having an interest on TJ TAFFE'S TEARS TO CHEERS .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends PERCE ROCK - FELL :eyes TEARS TO CHEERS NR [ASTUTE APPROACH 2ND ]

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends A couple to keep an eye out for on TUESDAY 3.30 - SOUTHWELL - BE FREE . The 4 runnings of this 1m Maiden has fallen to a 3y-old 3 times [ 3y-old was 2nd btn a hd in other ] so that gets rid of half the field. The probable FAV will be the H MORRISON trained TAIKOO [ Evs with RP F/cast] but it could pay to take a chance with PRESCOTT'S BE FREE. The trainer has an excellent 26% record over the past 5 season's on the AW here and has had 2 winners , 2 placed from 6 runners since New Years Day. His runners always seem to improve on their 1st outing. 3.50 - FOLKESTONE - GLENDA HODDLE Half the past winners of this NH Flat race have been 6y-olds [ 5/10 ] Only 2 Favs have won . Take a tentative look at CARL LLEWELLYN'S entry here as the stable has won with their last 2 runners in NH Flat races It is one of only 2 6y-olds in the race . Keep an eye on the market .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Be Free 2nd @ 2/1 , [1st - Taikoo] Folkestone - Abnd

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 2.40 NEWCASTLE - WEDS. Straight forward this one :\ , honest !!! MW EASTERBY has a record in this race when he has a runner , since 2000 , of -1st 7/2 , 3rd 3/1 , 1st 5/1 , 2nd 16/1 , 1st 11/2 , 1st 4/1. DIAVOLERIA is the stable entry in tomorrows event :hope and is 5/1 in RP F/cast.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 2.15 THURLES 10/10 were in the top 2 in the betting 10/10 carried 11:04 or more 10/10 were NOT ridden by a claimer 7/10 were 6y-olds 3/10 were 5y-olds SCAVENGER [ 6y-old] ran 3rd LTO in a GRP 3 race and looks like starting FAV here .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends FELL 2 out when challenging !!!!!! Hope the winning streak lasts as long as the losing one whenever it comes :\

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends HAYDOCK 2.00 PETER MARSH CHASE. ------------------------------------ 9/9 have been aged 8-10 y-olds 9/9 have carried 11:01 or under 1/9 was FAV . 1/9 was making it's seasonal debut 8/9 were 8/1 or under in the betting 8/8 had been placed between 1st-3rd that season 8/9 had course experience [either hurdles /chase or both ] SIMON fits the bill with it's liking for HEAVY going an added plus

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends HAYDOCK ABND :eyes Not a lot of time before the off but i had a quick look at last years selected races in this thread and the 12.15 + 1.20 at LINGFIELD have fallen to one of the top 2 in the betting with previous experience at the course. 12.15 ADMIRAL DUNDAS 1.20 ACE OF SPIES

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

HAYDOCK ABND :eyes Not a lot of time before the off but i had a quick look at last years selected races in this thread and the 12.15 + 1.20 at LINGFIELD have fallen to one of the top 2 in the betting with previous experience at the course. 12.15 ADMIRAL DUNDAS 1st @ 2/1F :clap 1.20 ACE OF SPIES 2ND @ 8/15f :eyes

A winner at last.

[mileni4uk]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Almost two, mate! This winning debutant at 1.20 was on drugs. What a run :eek

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Aye seen it myself , the winner must have had the proverbial rocket up it's arse !!!!!!!!!!!

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Weds 4.00 Mussleburgh

:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=422703&r_date=2007-01-19',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2007	:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=668799',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Theatrical Moment	4	10-7	7/4F	:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=12188",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>G A Swinbank	:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=8200",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Tony Dobbin	109
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=398249&r_date=2006-01-20',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2006	:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=649151',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Rocca's Boy	4	10-2	20/1	:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=14013",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>M Wigham	:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=78802",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>S J Craine	85
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=366035&r_date=2005-01-21',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2005	:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=607950',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Bayside	4	10-11	6/4F	:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=9325",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>K G Reveley	:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=79663",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>James Davies	93
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=343891&r_date=2004-01-23',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2004	:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=588106',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Esh Bran Girl	4	9-13	33/1	:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=14733",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>D W Thompson	:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=80153",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Andrew Tinkler	75
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=326457&r_date=2003-01-17',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2003	:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=573327',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Pass Me By	4	10-7	12/1	:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=41",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>T D Walford	:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=14234",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Jim Crowley	93
:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/result.sd?race_id=311308&r_date=2002-01-18',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>2002	:OWSize('','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=556313',800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Love Mail	4	10-2	7/1	:OWSize("RP_Popup","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/trainer_form.sd?trainer_id=3432",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Mrs S C Bradburne	:OWSize("","http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/jockey_stats_build.sd?jockey_id=11723",800,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Mark Bradburne	85

Take a look at the age of all 6 previous winners of this NH Flat race. Out of 15 runners tomorrow there's only 3 4y-olds entered. FOV LORD RASPBERRY SPELLCHECKER Odds wise it's looks like an open affair with 2 favs coming in but there's also been 3 in double figures. SPELLCHECKER looks like starting FAV and being from the Howard Johnson stable looks like having a good chance [ won 3/13 NH Flat at track] LORD RASPBERRY comes from MW EASTERBY'S stable and has already had a ran at Wetherby . SPELLCHECKER gets the nap , but i suggest a saver on LORD RASPBERRY [ stable has won 2/7 NH Flat at the track ]

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SAT - SANDOWN 3.40 - 3M110Y H'CAP CHASE. 9/10 won by a horse from the bottom half of the Handicap 9/10 were between 2nd - 5th fav [ all under 11/1] 0/10 were FAV 7/10 were aged 9 or 10 , NO 6y-old from 11 runners has won. 7/10 was placed 1st or 2nd LTO 9/10 was returned at odds of 6/1 or UNDER LTO 8/10 had won at least at CLASS 3 level over chases 5/10 had a break of 60+ days 0/10 had ran within 13 days previously Applying all these criteria leaves us with IRISH RAPTOR . It's only carrying 1lb more than it's prev top rating and will have no problems with COURSE , DISTANCE or GOING .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends IRISH RAPTOR .- unp Feel a need to change this a bit as the winners have not been coming in for me. So i'm going to try and concentrate on one race per day , it will be a NON-HANDICAP and selections will be shortish odds but hopefully a decent strike rate can be achieved. MONDAY 1.40 LINGFIELD 1M seller that has been run 3 times with the winner being either FAV [2] or 2nd fav [1] All 3 had been placed 1st or 2nd in either of their last 2 runs 25 , 11 + 12 were the days since each had last ran. All 3 had plenty of race-course experience. The RACING POST betting forecast has WHATS FOR TEA , QUEEN MACHA , SOLARIA and SPITFIRE JANE [in that order ]close in the betting . QUEEN MACHA + SOLARIA are making their race-course debuts so are discarded for this race. SPITFIRE JANE has ran only twice in her career , the last was 56 days ago , and finished out of the frame in both. That leaves us with WHATS FOR TEA , whose appearance in this will be her 16th career race , she was placed 2nd in her last 2 outings with the last only 13 days ago.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends WHATS FOR TEA 1ST @ EVENS :loon [spitfire jane was a NR ] TUESDAY - MARKET RASEN 2.00 JUV NOVICE HURDLE Has been run 6 times in previous seasons ALL 6 were in the top 3 in the betting [ 1 FAV] 4/6 were trained by , what i would call , a recognised top trainer. ALL 6 had ran no more than 3 times over hurdles in their career [ 2 were FTO over hurdles , 1 of those was FTO on a racecourse ] 3/4 with Flat experience had won a race on the level. First 4 in the RP f/cast are - START ROYAL - This will be it's 7th outing over hurdles. MAARAFEQ - Trained by VENETIA WILLIAMS , making it's NH debut here and has winning form on the Flat in France. PHEIDAS - Has ran only 3 times over hurdles , but has no winning form on the flat and the stable only had 1 hurdle winner from 30 runners last season and not really in form this season. BOOK OF FACTS - Has ran only twice over hurdles , placed in both and has winning form from the Flat [aw] MAARAFEQ gets the vote ahead of BOOK OF FACTS , mainly due to the stable and 2 debutants have won previously.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends MAARAFEQ gets the vote ahead of BOOK OF FACTS , mainly due to the stable and 2 debutants have won previously. MAARAFEQ 1st @ 4/1 :loon

[mileni4uk]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cracking price, mate :clap Was so much lower when I had a look at Betfair in the morning :ok

[gregprowt]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends great stuff JTW1 :ok missed the last couple of days but nice to see the thread back up and running, will keep an eye out now its back some very tasty winners in ATR at the moment

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheer MILENI + GREG :ok , certainly returned at a better price than i thought myself . WEDNESDAY - DOWN ROYAL 2.05 2M4F MAIDEN HURDLE 6/6 won by the FAV [ 4 CLEAR , 1 JT + 1 CO-FAV ] 5/6 carried OVER 10:13 5/6 ran within 30 days of their last outing 6/6 placed between 2nd-4th in either of thier last 2 outings 6/6 were returned at odds of UNDER 8/1 LTO. 0/6 were ridden by a claimer RARE BOB gets the vote ahead of HANGOVER . He has been tried fairly highly so far with his first 2 runs over hurdles being in GRADE 2 [ 4TH BTN 13L ] and a GRADE 3 [well btn although this was his debut over the sticks] It's first run in a NH Flat race produced a 2nd place behind SIZING EUROPE Placed 3rd LTO the RP report stated it would appreciate further , 2m that time , 2m4f tomorrow. Will be short-odds , hopefully a tad over EVENS :hope Done some reserch into the 2.35 and that has fell to a horse in the top 3 in betting 6/6 , but interestingly 3 odds-on FAVS have been beaten. 4/6 were 6y-old , 1 x 8y-old , 1x 10y-old. 5/6 have carried 11:12 [4] or above [1] 6/6 had won at least once previously in it's career Apart from 1 debutant none of the other 5 have ran more than 4 times that season 4/5 that had ran that season had won one of those outings. Top 3 in RP F/cast are - ROYAL HERITAGE - ran 10 times this season , winning none , a 9 y-old COSMO KING - Had 2 runs this season , won LTO , a 7-y-old OFFALY - Fell in it's seasonal debut LTO , stable appears out-of-form . COSMO KING must have a decent chance of a follow-up win here. The main selection for the day however is RARE BOB

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends RARE BOB - NON-RUNNER :( COSMO KING unp BETS - 3 WINS - 2 NR - 1 PROFIT = +5PTS to a 1PT level stake

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends THURSDAY - HUNTINGDON 3.10 2M110Y JUV NOV HURDLE Only been run 3 times but with 2 winnings FAVS and a 2nd FAV [ 13/8 ] coming in the signs are good for the top 2 in the betting here. All 3 had previous hurdle experience. All 3 were placed 1st,2nd or 3rd LTO. 2 had winning form on the Flat . Both NORMAN THE GREAT + THE GREY BERRY have the credentials but a couple of other stats make the latter the selection. Trainer P HOBBS has a record of 11/35 wins in hurdle races at HUNTINGDON [ 31% wins/runs , being the highest percentage at courses where he has double figure runners ] THE GREY BERRY has won at CLASS 2+CLASS 4 level on the flat whereas NORMANS single win was in a CLASS 5 AW race. THE GREY BERRY was bought for 340,000 GNS to go hurdling , so hopefully will win some small amount of that back here.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Think it's safe to assume that something was amiss with the 340,000gns purchase as it trailed in a well beaten 8th of 9 @ 15/8f :\ Not a great deal to go on for FRIDAY but here's one to consider at small stakes. BANGOR 1.45 2M1F NOV HURDLE All 5 prev winners were returned at under 8/1 , inc 3 FAVS + 1 2nd Fav. 3/5 were 6y-old , 1x 7y-old and a 4y-old . 4/5 had experience over hurdles , The odd one was that 4y-old who was from the PIPE stable carrying only 10.6 and at odds of 2/7f. There have been 5 mares who have ran , no wins. 15x 5y-olds have ran , NO wins. The top 4 in the betting [racing post f/cast ] are - RAPID INCREASE - A 5Y-OLD LATANIER - 5Y-OLD with NO hurdles experience MONSIGNORITA - MARE SUCH A MAN - Could be worth an interest being a 7y-old and has ran over the sticks in IRELAND. [ inc Handicap race LTO ] Makes it's debut for EVAN WILLIAMS tomorrow and with it's previous experience and age could have a chance at a decent price. Watch the betting .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SUCH A MAN 5TH @ 16/1 , One to keep track off in the coming weeks imo SATURDAY - NEWBURY 1.05 - 2M NOV HURDLE G/S 7/7 were in the top 3 in the betting HOWEVER only one FAV has won with the other 6 ,at odds ranging from odds-on up to 7/4 , being beaten. 7/7 aged 5 or 6y-old , 17 runners aged 7+ have ran - NO WINS 0/7 was a mare 6/7 had ran previously over hurdles 6 of those 6 had won either a NH Flat or Hurdle race. 5/6 started st odds of 5/1 or below LTO. 6/6 raced in at least a Class 4 event LTO The top 4 in the RP f/cast are - ZEBRA CROSSING - 7-YOLD PRESSGANG CUTTING CREW - 7Y-OLD + DEBUTANT PASCO So if we ignore the two 7y-olds on age grounds that leaves PRESSGANG + PASCO . The latter comes from the powerful NICHOLS stable and bing only a 5y-old who has won one of it's 2 races so far which was a CL 4 race certainly has a chance . BUT his opponent here had it's first run for 681 days LTO when finishing 3rd over C/D in a time [24.50 secs on soft ] which was slightly quicker than PASCO'S C/D win on G/SFT [24.85 secs ] Another factor in selecting PRESSGANG is that it finished 2nd in the FESTIVAL BUMPER in 2006 behind HAIRY MOLLY. That is an event which produces multiple + classy winners :hope

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends PRESSGANG [5/1] ran well to finish 5th to PASCO [4/1] Thats what happens when i try to select a winner between 2 selections !!!! Maybe DAVE NEVISON'S approach of backing 2 or 3 in a race should be used ? And NICHOL'S bags a double at NEWBURY as i type !