JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SANDOWN 1.50 GRP 3 STAKES 10f ----------------------------------- 9/10 were aged 4 or 5 y-olds SP's have ranged from Fav to outsider . The last 6 winners have won at GRP 3 level or above in their career , which seems to show a change from the previous 4 seasons when all 4 won at Listed company only. 8/10 were rated above 110 with the BHB . HATTAN won the WINTER DERBY TLO but out of the first 8 home behind him that day , 5 have ran and lost next time , usually at a lower grade . Being a 6y-old also is a negative. 4 others have not won above LISTED Class they are - CHAMPIONSHIP POINT - M Channon's stable still not firing and only rated 105. ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE - Stable only had a third from last 8 runners and also it's usually one of the 'top' boys that win this. MANY VOLUMES - Not sure to run if it stays on the soft side and rated 103. PHILATELIST -3 career wins have came on the AW , rated 102. M JOHNSTONES is a non-runner . Which leaves us with Sir M Stoutes ASK , who has two GRP3 wins under it's belt , inc FTO last season at Chester , is rated 119 , wouldn't want it too soft but has won twice on G/S [ tomorrows forecasted going] Unusual for the stable to keep a 5y-old in training so hopefully it will be fit enough to do justice . Slight concern over the fate of the FAVS here with only 3 [ inc 1 jt] winning from 10 .

[evad]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends nice couple of winners jtw1, well done

[fintron]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

SCHINDLERS HUNT 4TH to TWIST MAGIC FIVEFORTHREE 3RD [ 1st - JARED ] Back and staying on the flat - BEVERLY 4.55 1M 3Y-OLD+ MAIDEN 6/6 was won by a 3y-old. 6/6 won by a horse in the top 5 in the betting [3 favs] . 6/6 were trained at NEWMARKET. ALL had a previous outing . ALL had last ran over 7f/1m. 3 colts/geldings have won from 24 runners. 3 fillies have won from 15 runners. Get rid of those over 3y-old takes care of the top 6 , then discount any Northern trained animal removes another 5. That leaves - HEPBURN BELL , BOWDEN STONE and E MAJOR. Not a great deal between these 3 at first glance but BOWDEN STONE'S 3rd LTO was on soft going [5.5 secs over the ave] and was well beaten in it's debut last season. E MAJOR will no doubt run a race and STOUTE has a reasonable 4 wins from 15 3 y-olds with this age group at BEVERLY HEPBURN BELL gets the nod over E MAJOR due to FANSHAWE having 6 wins from 26 3 y-old runners [ at BEVERLY] and the slightly better win percentage of Fillies compared to the colts. :hope

Nice one :clap, hope Ask comes in for you today.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends ASK 1st @ 8/13 fav :loon Expected the short odds when the Cecil horse was declared a non-runner . Winner none the less :nana 3.55 BET 365 MILE GRP 2 9 / 11 winners were in single figure odds. 10 / 11 were aged 4 or 5. 7/10 won at Grp 3 or above. 10/10 won at least LISTED level. 9/9 had a BHB rating of between 109 - 118 6/9 were rated in the top 2 BHB ratings No Mare has won in 10 runnings 2 ran in the DONCASTER MILE . Four of the first 5 home in this season's Doncaster Mile renew rivalry here but i think the winner is not one of them :eek 1- BOBODANA was 3rd home in said Doncaster mile but as an 8y-old and only rated 100 , it has won a Listed race but that was back in '03 . I just can't see how this can have any chance. 2- BLYTHE KNIGHT , again an 8y-old and that has to be a big disadvantage even for this consistent animal.Finished 4th in the MILE. 3- MAJOR CADEAUX is a 4y-old and won a Grp 3 event , in fact barring it's debut it has ran all it's races in at least Grp 3 class . It has never been beaten by more than 3 1/2 lengths in those 6 races , which included a 6l 6th to Cockney Rebel in the GUINEAS . Doubt about it's liking for the 8f but at this lower grade it's class may pull it through. R HANNON won this twice with HURRICANE ALLAN . MAJOR CADEAUX is Top rated at 114 with the BHB. 4- MEDICINE PATH won the DONC MILE but with 3 of those which finished behind him taking him on again you have to seriously think about taking too short a price about him , especially as only one winner from the past 10 had actually won LTO. On the plus side it has been placed at Gp2 level but only won at Listed class. My inclination is that the MILE was a bit substandard this year and i'm willing to take this one on. 5- METROPOLITAN MAN with respect to the trainer , D SIMCOCK , but this looks like another race that the 'big boys ' sweep up and the 20/1 seems to sum up it's cahnceas it has not won above Cl 3. 6- ROB ROY was kept in America after it's run in the Breeders Cup Mile in 2006 , had 2 runs then shipped back home and has not seen a racecourse for 279 days !! Now there's every chance that Sir Michael could have this one fit and on it's day would have beaten anything here but i'm hoping this is a pipe-opener for something else later on. A 6y-old has won this once but still must be against it here. 7- TELL , i selected this one for the MILE and it ran a decent enough race to fade around 1 1/2 f out to finish 5th. Although it has a Grp 3 placing to it's name , it has only won at Cl 4 grade and may possibly start at double figures in the betting . 8- BAHIA BREEZE is a 6y-old and around 16/1 in the betting so thats enough for me. SUMMARY - The fact that 3 of those who finished behind MEDICINE PATH are prepared to take him on again puts me off the probable FAV and preference is for Hannon's MAJOR CADEAUX . It has ran creditably an all it's races at grades up to Grp1 and providing it can get that extra furlong i think it will take all the beating.

[billy the punter]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Going on a nice little run :clap

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends You better belive it Billy-boy :loon MAJOR CADEAUX 1ST @ 3/1 :nana:nana:nana

[TheRat]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Well done jtw :clap Great run and deserved :ok

[stewartd14]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends :clap:clap:clap

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

You better belive it Billy-boy :loon MAJOR CADEAUX 1ST @ 3/1 :nana:nana:nana

cheers jtw, backed it purely on your trend advice:clap, got 4.8 on Betfair

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends :clap Bowles , nice price. BATH 5f Class 1 [ Listed ] Stakes ------------------------------- 8/9 have been returned at 12/1 or UNDER. 4 X 5Y-OLDS and 3X 3Y-OLDS have won from 9 runnings There have only been 31 3y-old runners in those 9 , and as well as the 3 winners there have also been 4 second's in that age group. Draw usually favours the HIGH numbers when ground Good or Firmer. 5/9 had won at LISTED level or above. 9/9 rated 88 or above Taking the first 5 in the betting from the RP F/cast - DARK MISSILE - It's last 10 runs have been over 6f and it has never won at 5f . Not won above Cl 3 , is a 5y-old, but has the plum draw .Rated 107 CAKE - Won at Listed grade and it's 3 career wins have been over the minimum. 7f was way past it's ability LTO at Newmarket . Drawn nicely in stall 8 , rated 102. DUBAI PRINCESS - 3Y-OLD who has not won above Cl4 , but was only beaten 1l in a Listed race last season at N'MKT. Has won FTO and after a long break but the stable not firing yet. Rated 98. Has ran 50% of it's races over 6f and imo that suits her more than the 5f . Handy drawn in 11 MORINQUA - Won at 5f but only at Cl 3 level , drawn 9 . Well exposed as this will be her 18th outing and i think just lacks the class that some of the others have. Rated 94 RIPPLES MAID - Rated 98 and has been campaigned in DUBAI over the winter but this will be her first attempt at 5f for 24 outings ! Has won twice at the grade and comes out of stall 10. 5 y-old. SUMMARY - With the FAV and RIPPLES MAID having been running over 6f for a fair time and doubts over whether the other 2 are up to the class of the selection , i have to go for CAKE . Surely HANNON knew that the 7f of the FREE Handicap would be too far for this filly and could it be that was just a nice pipe-opener ?? Together with the stable in such good form and the 3y-old record in the race i think it's worth taking on DARK MISSILE .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends CAKE - non runner :\ Race won by MORINQUA @ 8/1 WEDS - ASCOT - 3.55 SAGARO STAKES 2M GRP 3 -------------------------------------------------- 0/10 Favs 9/10 returned at 8/1 or below 7/10 had won at Group 3 level or above , the other 3 had won at least one LISTED race. 8 had a BHb RATING and 7 of those were 108 + 9/10 had won over 2m , the other had won at 1m7f. 1- PEPPERTREE LANE surely runs here as a pacemaker for JOHNSTON'S other runner. Needs Soft ground to show it's best [ Good at present but heavy showers forecast ].Never won beyond 14f , has won Grp 3. 2- BADDAM is only rated 95 and not won above Cl 2 , so it's a no-no for me. 3- DISTINCTION from the pwerful STOUTE stable , is a C/D winner , has won on ground from SOFT to G/F , succesful at Grp 2 and Grp 3 level. RATED 110 and has won FTO. 4 + 5 - Both FRANK SONATA and SHIPMASTER have not won beyond 14f , are rated only 104 + 101 respectively and neither has won at Grp level so i'm discounting their chance's. 6- SOAPY DANGER looks like JOHNSTON'S main hope but although this one has a Course/ Distance win to it's name [ QUEEN ANNE at the royal meeting] it has done most of it's winning over 12f. Certain to be fit after winning at Doncaster's opening meeting , it cannot be discounted easily. Rated 109 and GR2 + 3 win's to it's name. 7- TUNGSTEN STRIKE won this last year so C/D not a problem , had a look at last years field and imo it was below this years renewal with respect to the oppostion. Has won FTO and rated 111. Again not without a good shout here if fit . This looks like a straight match between the top 3 in the betting - DISTINCTION , SOAPY DANGER and TUNSTER STRIKE . However what clinches the selection for me is SIR MICHAEL STOUTE'S record in the past 14 days with 4 YOLDS + 5 , 1 , 1 , 1 , 1 , 2 , 1 which is impressive even for his stable , ok if it starts Fav then going strictly by the stats it's up against it but i think this game 9 y-old can buck the [ hopefully it'll start 2nd fav :lol ]

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 0/10 Favs and the trend continued unfortunately with the selection DISTINCTION starting at 5/2 f and fininshing 3rd :eyes Race won by SHIPMASTER .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Thursday --------- REDCAR 2.30 5f Maiden Auction Stakes - Soft 6/8 won by a Filly , in the other 2 races the 2nd placed horse's were both fillies. 7/8 were in the top 3 in the betting. 6/8 had a previous racecourse experience , none finished worse than 6th. Draw of 1st 3 home when groung G/S to Soft - 2,8,7 from 11 runners. 7,6,5 from 12 12,5,7 from 12 14,10,3 from 15 Of the 12 runners entred for this 5f race , only 3 have ran before and of those 3 LUCKY BUDDHA finished a well beaten 8th of 9. ROSALEE finished 5th LTO but is only drawn in 4 , assuming the conditions and stalls placement are the same as the above 4 races , that could be a negative. KNAVESMIRE has ran twice , finished 3rd on both occasions [ G/S ground each time ] and this is a drop in class from Cl4 to Cl 5. Drawn 9 of 12. It was entered in a race at Beverly 14 days ago where it looked to have a Favs chance but was withdrawn , could the fact that it was due to run from stall no1 that day have had an influence in it's withdrawal as that course's draw bias is one of the most prominent in the country ?? Sure to start at short odds i'm afaraid but :hope anyway.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends KNAVESMIRE 1st @ 5/2 f :loon Pleasantly surprised at the SP :nana Nothing for Friday .

[billy the punter]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Nice one j - never looked any doubt. :clap Bout a length in the end I think, but always holding the 2nd.

[TheRat]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends :clap Well done mate, nice price

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Thanks guys :ok certainly on a decent run lately so :hope it can keep going. 2000 gns ---------- 9/10 returned at 10/1 or under. 1/10 was returned FAV. 9/10 ran LTO over 7f/8f. 9/10 had a sires winning ave of 9.0f - 11.3f 10/10 had won at least once. 9/10 had ran up to 5 times previously. A P O'BRIEN has won 4 from the past 10 Sir M STOUTE has won twice from 10 runnings Those who look like starting under 11/1 are - NEW APPROACH would appear to have a good chance of starting FAV and on it's 2 y-old record that looks justified . It was sired in FEB , ran LTO at 7f and sire's ave is 11.0f. J BOLGER has a 34% record at the course . But that poor FAVS record [ inc 4 that started under 2/1 ] is a definate negative. RAVENS PASS was sired in Feb , ran at 7f LTO but it's sires winning ave is only 8f , and thats definately against him. Beaten on both runs on the course. IBN KHALDUN carries the hope of the GODOLPHIN outfit and has done nothing wrong since winning it's Leicester maiden and ending with the RACING POST Trophy .A Feb foal , it ran at 8f LTO [ won] and it's sire's ave is 9.3f. HENRYTHENAVIGATOR comes from the 4 times winning stable [ last 10 runnings] of AP O'BRIEN . Beaten on Soft ground in it's last 2 runs [ ran 4 in all] and the stable blamed the ground for those defeats. Feb foal , 7f LTO and sires ave is 9.8f. PERFECT STRIDE is 5th in the betting but being an APRIL foal and having a sires winning ave of only 6.7f would appear to curtail it's chance imo. SUMMARY - I think PERFECT STRIDE and RAVENS PASS have doubts about their stamina for a race like this . I cannot ignore the poor record of FAVS in this Classic [ 1/10 ] so i am leaving out NEW APPROACH . That leaves IBN KHALDOUN and HENRYTHENAVIGATOR . GODOLPHIN have , over the past few years , have seem to take a fair bit of time to come to hand imo and have not won this since 1999. AP O'BRIEN ,one the other hand , have taken this 4 times and now that HENRYTHENAVIGATOR seems to have decent ground to run on i am selecting it to reverse soft ground running with NEW APPROACH.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Be back around mid-day on Sat with a couple more Waiting to see what the SP's are liable to be

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends THIRSK 2.35 1m4f MAIDEN 3Y-OLD+ 7/8 won by a 3y-old . 8/8won by 1st-3rd FAV [ 4 clear FAV ] 6/8 had a previous outing 8/8 won by Southern trainer 8/8 - sires winning ave = 10.7 f + Record of 3y-old fillies starting in top 3 of betting = 1,1,1,1,3. CRITERION , STOCK MARKET and SPHERE seem to be the first 3 in the betting order. CRITERION come from the STOUTE stable and has ran 3 times in it's career. Looks sure to start FAV but it's sires winning ave is only 9.6f. STOCK MARKET is from ED DUNLOP'S yard , has ran once but as with CRITERION it's sires winning ave is lower than ideal at 9.5f. Which leaves us with SPHERE from J FANSHAWES yard , has ran 3rd in a race where the 2nd + 5th have both since won . A sires ave of 10.8f and the fact that it's one of only two Fillies in the race means it gets my vote here. THIRSK 4.20 7F MAIDEN 3Y-OLD 9/11 won by either 1st or 2nd FAV. 9/11 won by a colt/gelding. 9/11 had raced at least once. 10/11 won by a Southern Raider. GREAT KNIGHT and INDY DRIVER are the 2 market leaders as i type , so we'll concentrate on those 2 just now. GEART KNIGHT comes from the HAGGAS yard and fits all the bills here , as does the FANSHAWE representative INDY DRIVER. The next 3 in the betting are all Fillies so i'm hoping that the winner will come from the above 2 , but i can't separate them !! The only thing that may shed some light is the result of the 3.10 which is run over the same dist with the same number of runners . If there is any sort of bias toward either high or low numbers then that may make up my mind . Will post again after that event .

[billy the punter]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Sphere has been in my notebook since her debut. I agree she should go well here. Really interesting for later in the season. I was waiting as long as possible as the place price for her has been so short all day. Obviously with only four runners (64/1 bar 4) they are going to be well under the odds on those to be placed. I've played small at fixed odds at 4s.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Disappointing run from SPHERE there i'm afraid BTP. :eyes CRITERION wins at 2/1f :\ Well the 3.10 didn't help in any way when it came to the draw the 123 were drawn 3 , 14 , 6 from 14. So i recommend a split stake bet on both GREAT KNIGHT + INDY DANCER , around 7/2 + 4/1 the pair.

[billy the punter]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Indeed. She drifted quite badly on betfair before the race too. Wouldn't write her off, like I say she'll be intersting in handicaps later, probably see her in a fillies maiden NTO I would imagine.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Thanks guys :ok certainly on a decent run lately so :hope it can keep going. 2000 gns ---------- 9/10 returned at 10/1 or under. 1/10 was returned FAV. 9/10 ran LTO over 7f/8f. 9/10 had a sires winning ave of 9.0f - 11.3f 10/10 had won at least once. 9/10 had ran up to 5 times previously. A P O'BRIEN has won 4 from the past 10 Sir M STOUTE has won twice from 10 runnings Those who look like starting under 11/1 are - NEW APPROACH would appear to have a good chance of starting FAV and on it's 2 y-old record that looks justified . It was sired in FEB , ran LTO at 7f and sire's ave is 11.0f. J BOLGER has a 34% record at the course . But that poor FAVS record [ inc 4 that started under 2/1 ] is a definate negative. RAVENS PASS was sired in Feb , ran at 7f LTO but it's sires winning ave is only 8f , and thats definately against him. Beaten on both runs on the course. IBN KHALDUN carries the hope of the GODOLPHIN outfit and has done nothing wrong since winning it's Leicester maiden and ending with the RACING POST Trophy .A Feb foal , it ran at 8f LTO [ won] and it's sire's ave is 9.3f. HENRYTHENAVIGATOR comes from the 4 times winning stable [ last 10 runnings] of AP O'BRIEN . Beaten on Soft ground in it's last 2 runs [ ran 4 in all] and the stable blamed the ground for those defeats. Feb foal , 7f LTO and sires ave is 9.8f. PERFECT STRIDE is 5th in the betting but being an APRIL foal and having a sires winning ave of only 6.7f would appear to curtail it's chance imo. SUMMARY - I think PERFECT STRIDE and RAVENS PASS have doubts about their stamina for a race like this . I cannot ignore the poor record of FAVS in this Classic [ 1/10 ] so i am leaving out NEW APPROACH . That leaves IBN KHALDOUN and HENRYTHENAVIGATOR . GODOLPHIN have , over the past few years , have seem to take a fair bit of time to come to hand imo and have not won this since 1999. AP O'BRIEN ,one the other hand , have taken this 4 times and now that HENRYTHENAVIGATOR seems to have decent ground to run on i am selecting it to reverse soft ground running with NEW APPROACH.

GET ******' IN THERE YA BEAUTY :beer:beer:beer:beer:beer

[mileni4uk]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends :clap Well done, sir :notworthy

[billy the punter]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Yes, nice one jtw :ok

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends :notworthywell done I ignored the fav stat as the fav met all the other trends. nice one

[cc75]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Excellent work JTW - great selection. Backed this purely on your recommendation - thanks chief!!

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Thanks guys :ok and glad to be of help cc75 :cheers HENRYTHENAVIGATOR 1ST @ 11/1 :loon SPHERE unp :eyes GRAND KNIGHT 2nd @ 11/4f INDY DANCER 4th @ 6/1 INDY DANCER started @ 3rd fav , so technically it should not have been a selection . It was one of the jt 2nd favs that won the race , was backed from 6/1 to 4/1 :\ , although the only difference it would have made was that GRAND KNIGHT would have been the only selection . SUNDAY -------- NEWMARKET 5.05 1M2F FILLIES LISTED STAKES 11/11 in the top 4 in the betting. 10/11 were Newmarket trained [ 3 from ed dunlop's ] 10/11 were placed 1st-3rd in either of their last 2 outings. Those 10 had last ran at either 7f/1m LTO. 9/10 had a sires winning ave of 9.5f - 11.4f The previous 7 winners had ran no more than 3 times. 6 out of 10 had ran a previous race at NEWMARKET . BETFAIR currently have DON'T FORGET FAITH , CRUEL SEA + MISCHIEF MAKING well clear of the 4th fav , so we'll concentrate on these 3. DON'T FORGET FAITH , like CRUEL SEA is LAMBOURNE trained :\ , but it could only finish 6th LTO and this will be it's 6th run . It ran at 7f LTO and it's sires ave is 11.7f . CRUEL SEA won its one and only race over 8f LTO at Doncaster . B HILLS has won this event back in 2005 , sires ave not available . MISCHIEF MAKING comes from the ED DUNLOP stable [ see above ] but this will be it's 6th outing and it ran [AND WON] at 12f LTO . That was a class 3 event. CRUEL SEA , although not a Newmarket trained animal , gets the nod here as it has only 1 run to it's name , which was a win in a cl5 race . DON'T BE CRUEL + MISCHIEF MAKING have too many runs for my liking .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 1000 gns --------- 10/10 were returned at 14/1 or under [3 favs ] 9/10 had won once in prev 2 outings 9/10 had won at least 2 races 9/10 had won at leats at Grp 3 level 9/10 sires ave was 7.9f - 10.7f 4/5 that had ran that season had won 9/10 had ran between 3-7 times 8/10 had ran at Newmarket [ 6 had won at course ] , the other two were trained outside of UK. It looks like the following will start at 14/1 or UNDER for the 2nd Classic of the season. NATAGORA has ran 5 times , won on it's seasonal reappearance , won 4 in total at Grp 1,2 + 3 level of which the last was a course win. May try and make all imo. No French trained winner in past 10 years. INFALLIBLE has ran only twice [ won both however ] inc a win this season in the NEEL GWYN at Newmarket . It's has a negative however as it's sires winning ave is only 7.6f. SPACIOUS only had 2 previous outings [ won both , although none at Newmarket ] and won at Grp 2 level and sires winning ave is 9.7f. MUTHABARA has a 100% record from it's 3 runs and one of those was a Grp 3 race and it's sires ave is 8.7f . However it has no experience of the track. KITTY MATCHAM comes from AP O'BRIENS stable and has ran 5 times , winning twice [ inc one at Grp 2 level ] .Sires winning ave is 9.5f and is a course winner . SAVETHISDANCEFOME is AP O'BRIEN'S 2nd string and has only won at Listed level so i'll be surprised if this one wins. SUMMARY - NATAGORA has a Favs chance but i have doubts about whether it will stay the 8f at this level . INFALLIBLE'S sires ave is enough to put me off , while SPACIOUS + MUTHABARA have no experience of the track. SAVETHISDANCEFORME looks out of it's depth so i'm selecting it's stable companion KITTY MATCHAM to win this at decent odds

[boyd]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Great work jtw on the trends and write up for the 2000 guineas, and well done with the winner. I'm glad that with your trends that you have gone for Kitty Matcham as this is the main one i have already backed along with Spacious. I have been looking at two horses that may not necessarily win but may be placed - Laureldean Gale and Lush Lashes to just be placed. I know these don't fit the trend but was wondering if it would be possible for you to let me know the sires average for these and what group level they won at? Thanks in advance, keep up the good work.