Ratings Experiment for the 2000 Guineas.

[Zilzalian]

ZILZALIAN	KR		STOPWATCH (RP)	SR		MCLARKE	MR		RICHARD WESTWOOD	RR		TOTALS	ALLR		TOTAL ADJUSTED FOR OMISSIONS
GHOSTWRITER	134		CITY OF TROY	114		TASK FORCE	80		CITY OF TROY	92		CITY OF TROY	411		CITY OF TROY	411
TEN BOB TERRY	133		HENRY LONGFELLOW	113		HAATEM	79		HENRY LONGFELLOW	89		HAATEM	407		HAATEM	407
HAATEM	130		HAATEM	110		GHOSTWRITER	78		HAATEM	88		GHOSTWRITER	406		GHOSTWRITER	406
RIVER TIBER	130		GHOSTWRITER	108		RIVER TIBER	78		GHOSTWRITER	86		RIVER TIBER	395		HENRY LONGFELLOW	403
ROSALLION	130		ROSALLION	107		TEN BOB TERRY	77		ROSALLION	85		ROSALLION	393		RIVER TIBER	395
CITY OF TROY	129		TASK FORCE	106		CITY OF TROY	76		RIVER TIBER	82		TASK FORCE	386		ROSALLION	393
DIEGO VELAQUAZ	126		RIVER TIBER	105		NIGHT RAIDER	72		ALYANAABI	82		TEN BOB TERRY	381		TASK FORCE	386
NIGHT RAIDER	126		ALYANAABI	103		ALYANAABI	72		TASK FORCE	82		ALYANAABI	378		TEN BOB TERRY	381
NOTABLE SPEECH	123		TEN BOB TERRY	96		ROSALLION	71		DIEGO VELAQUAZ	78		DIEGO VELAQUAZ	353		ALYANAABI	378
IBERIAN	122		DIEGO VELAQUAZ	94		INISHERIN	71		NIGHT RAIDER	77		INISHERIN	349		DIEGO VELAQUAZ	353
ALYANAABI	121		INISHERIN	88		NOTABLE SPEECH	68		TEN BOB TERRY	75		IBERIAN	346		INISHERIN	349
TASK FORCE	118		IBERIAN	85		IBERIAN	65		NOTABLE SPEECH	75		HENRY LONGFELLOW	316		IBERIAN	346
INISHERIN	115		NIGHT RAIDER	0		DIEGO VELAQUAZ	55		INISHERIN	75		NIGHT RAIDER	275		NIGHT RAIDER	342
HENRY LONGFELLOW	114		NOTABLE SPEECH	0		HENRY LONGFELLOW	0		IBERIAN	74		NOTABLE SPEECH	266		NOTABLE SPEECH	333

 

NRs = HENRY LONGFELLOW, RIVER TIBER, DIEGO VELAQUEZ.

Edited May 2 by Zilzalian
NON RUNNERS

[Zilzalian]

Totals adjusted column has averages for the omissions In the MCLARK column (Henry Longfellow) and the Stopwatch column (Night Raider & Notable speech) one could add these on in the respective columns if you don't like the omissions.

The omissions are as follows
Henry Longfellow    87 MCLARK (MR)

Night Raider             67 Stopwatch (SR)

Notable Speech       67 Stopwatch (SR)

@harry_rag

Edited April 30 by Zilzalian
tag added

[harry_rag]

55 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

The omissions are as follows
Henry Longfellow    87 MCLARK (MR) 73

Night Raider             67 Stopwatch (SR) 101

Notable Speech       67 Stopwatch (SR) 98

These are my weighted ratings for the "missing" horses. Based on what % their rating was of the top rating and average rating for each of the other sources. I think it's a more reasonable guess at what their numbers might have been! 

[harry_rag]

A first cut for one option of combining your collective wisdom. This sets each of your top rated as 100 and adjusts everything else based on it's rating as a % of the top rated. (e.g. Zil's top rated is Ghostwriter on 134, Haatem on 130 is adjusted to 97. If you all top rated the same horse it would have the perfect 100 score.

#	Horse	Odds	BF	Av100
1	City of Troy	1.666	1.73	97.8
2	Haatem	34	38	97.0
3	Ghostwriter	17	20	96.4
4	River Tiber	41	130	93.9
5	Henry Longfellow	26	26	93.0
6	Rosallion	5	8.2	93.0
7	Task Force	21	23	92.5
8	Ten Bob Tony	51	190	90.3
9	Alyanaabi	21	29	89.9
10	Night Raider	17	17.5	89.1
11	Notable Speech	11	14.5	86.1
12	Inisherin	34	55	83.3
13	Diego Velazquez	51	100	82.5
14	Iberian	26	48	81.8

 

[harry_rag]

I think I prefer this approach, where the horse's rating is converted to a % of your average rating for all runners. So a score above 100 denotes a runner with an above average rating and vice versa if <100. e.g. Clarky top rates Task Force at 80 and his average rating is 72.5 so that converts to 110.3

#	Horse	Odds	BF	AvAv
1	City of Troy	1.666	1.73	108.2
2	Haatem	34	38	107.2
3	Ghostwriter	17	20	106.6
4	River Tiber	41	130	103.8
5	Henry Longfellow	26	26	103.0
6	Rosallion	5	8.2	102.8
7	Task Force	21	23	102.3
8	Ten Bob Tony	51	190	99.7
9	Alyanaabi	21	29	99.4
10	Night Raider	17	17.5	98.4
11	Notable Speech	11	14.5	95.1
12	Inisherin	34	55	92.1
13	Diego Velazquez	51	100	91.1
14	Iberian	26	48	90.4

[Zilzalian]

36 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

A first cut for one option of combining your collective wisdom. This sets each of your top rated as 100 and adjusts everything else based on it's rating as a % of the top rated. (e.g. Zil's top rated is Ghostwriter on 134, Haatem on 130 is adjusted to 97. If you all top rated the same horse it would have the perfect 100 score.

#	Horse	Odds	BF	Av100
1	City of Troy	1.666	1.73	97.8
2	Haatem	34	38	97.0
3	Ghostwriter	17	20	96.4
4	River Tiber	41	130	93.9
5	Henry Longfellow	26	26	93.0
6	Rosallion	5	8.2	93.0
7	Task Force	21	23	92.5
8	Ten Bob Tony	51	190	90.3
9	Alyanaabi	21	29	89.9
10	Night Raider	17	17.5	89.1
11	Notable Speech	11	14.5	86.1
12	Inisherin	34	55	83.3
13	Diego Velazquez	51	100	82.5
14	Iberian	26	48	81.8

 

Is that with or without Occams Razor applied? 😁

I think the adjusted column shows up the Missing Clarkey horse Henry Longfellow and its significance and his problem going forward quite well. 12th to fourth.

Edited April 30 by Zilzalian
update

[harry_rag]

Going to take a break before I disappear up my own rabbit hole but here's a couple of tables that may be of interest (or not).

#	Horse	Odds	BF	MaxAv
1	City of Troy	1.666	1.73	113.0
2	Henry Longfellow	26	26	110.8
3	Task Force	21	23	110.3
4	Haatem	34	38	109.0
5	Ghostwriter	17	20	107.6
6	River Tiber	41	130	107.6
7	Ten Bob Tony	51	190	106.3
8	Rosallion	5	8.2	104.9
9	Alyanaabi	21	29	101.0
10	Night Raider	17	17.5	100.7
11	Diego Velazquez	51	100	100.7
12	Notable Speech	11	14.5	98.3
13	Inisherin	34	55	97.9
14	Iberian	26	48	97.5

Sorted by best individual rating (shows you all agree the bottom 6 are bang average or worse).

#	Horse	Odds	BF	MinAv
1	Ghostwriter	17	20	105.6
2	Haatem	34	38	103.9
3	City of Troy	1.666	1.73	103.1
4	River Tiber	41	130	100.7
5	Rosallion	5	8.2	97.9
6	Alyanaabi	21	29	96.7
7	Night Raider	17	17.5	94.6
8	Task Force	21	23	94.3
9	Ten Bob Tony	51	190	92.1
10	Notable Speech	11	14.5	92.1
11	Henry Longfellow	26	26	91.1
12	Inisherin	34	55	86.3
13	Iberian	26	48	83.3
14	Diego Velazquez	51	100	75.9

Sorted by worst individual rating (shows you all agree the top 4 are at least slightly better than average).

[Zilzalian]

Now each of us (inc Harry) have to decide where/what the best bet is out of this lot.

@MCLARKE @harry_rag @richard-westwood lets say we all have £20 quid to waste.

[harry_rag]

Just now, Zilzalian said:

Now each of us (inc Harry) have to decide where/what the best bet is out of this lot.

@MCLARKE @harry_rag @richard-westwood lets say we all have £20 quid to waste.

I'll go first with my less informed view. Might as well try and extract some sense from my frantic spreadsheeting! 

There's a clear top four with the fav rightly the fav but too short for now. River Tiber is 4th but drifting quite a bit on the exchange suggesting it has maybe lost a leg or is about to be withdrawn. Haatem and Ghostwriter the other two. If I had to burn that £20 now:

£4 e/w Haatem 66/1 (using my weekly "Epic Odds" boost)

£5 e/w Ghostwriter 16/1 

£2 win River Tiber at 220

 

[Zilzalian]

£6.50 win Ghost Writer       16/1

£2.50 ew   Haatem               28/1

£2.00 ew   Ten Bob Tony    50/1

6 x 50p      Forecasts

6 x 25p      Tricasts

[MCLARKE]

I can only watch one horse in a race so I'll go with HAATEM who looks the best value. I would probably have £10 EW but would wait until the day of the race as there will probably be 4 places available somewhere and BOG would be available.

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

Now each of us (inc Harry) have to decide where/what the best bet is out of this lot.

@MCLARKE @harry_rag @richard-westwood lets say we all have £20 quid to waste.

I think for me .....ghostwriter has always been up there ....I can see him placing and being a better horse in the derby later on .....and haatem is also looking overpriced at 33/1..,.so I'm very happy to have 5pt Ew on both ....just a shame only 3 places 

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

I'll go first with my less informed view. Might as well try and extract some sense from my frantic spreadsheeting! 

There's a clear top four with the fav rightly the fav but too short for now. River Tiber is 4th but drifting quite a bit on the exchange suggesting it has maybe lost a leg or is about to be withdrawn. Haatem and Ghostwriter the other two. If I had to burn that £20 now:

£4 e/w Haatem 66/1 (using my weekly "Epic Odds" boost)

£5 e/w Ghostwriter 16/1 

£2 win River Tiber at 220

 

Yes I e managed to get the epic boost 66/1 ...cmon you beauty 🤩 

[harry_rag]

We've (I use the word cheekily perhaps) split this race into 3 clear divisions.

It would be hoped we find the winner from our top 4 given it includes the odds on fav, or a couple of decent priced placed selections at least.

We have a clear bottom 6 so it would be nice if they all fell short of the places.

That leaves the midfield 4 of Henry L, Rosallion, Task Force and 10 Bob Tony where opinion is fairly divided. Rosallion too short to like given it's so-so showing, 

Let's hope most of them go to post and see how it all unfurls.

[Zilzalian]

Okay so now that's on hold shall we go for the double with the 1000 Guineas @MCLARKE @richard-westwood same again @harry_rag?

[richard-westwood]

Fallen 8.9 

Ylang. 8.6

Porta fortuna.  8.3 

Dance sequence. 8.0 

Content. 7.8

See the fire 7.7 

Cinderella's dream 7.7 

Darnation. 7.5 

Pretty crystal 7.5

Ramatualle.  7.2 

Regal jubilee 7.2

Brilliant 7.2 

Starstyle. 7.0 

Rolica 7.0

Sacred angel 7.0 

Star music 6.8 

Timfana  6.5 

Emallca.  6.5 

Lunar eclipse 6.5 

Finsceal Luas 6.5 

 

[harry_rag]

9 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Okay so now that's on hold shall we go for the double with the 1000 Guineas @MCLARKE @richard-westwood same again @harry_rag?

I could run the numbers tomorrow. It would be good if you could collate the ratings as per your opening post and send me the spreadsheet. I think the data entry took me longer than the rating!

[MCLARKE]

For completeness I've manually calculated the ratings for the 2 horses that have only run in Ireland or France

[Zilzalian]

5 hours ago, harry_rag said:

I could run the numbers tomorrow. It would be good if you could collate the ratings as per your opening post and send me the spreadsheet. I think the data entry took me longer than the rating!

Tried messaging you on here file wouldn't attach and seems to have not sent, can you inbox me your email addy?

[harry_rag]

1 minute ago, Zilzalian said:

Tried messaging you on here file wouldn't attach and seems to have not sent, can you inbox me your email addy?

Done. 

[Zilzalian]

14 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Done. 

Does that mean you got the bloody file or that you sent the address ffs? 😁

[harry_rag]

12 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Does that mean you got the bloody file or that you sent the address ffs? 😁

I'd already replied to your PM with my email address before you posted in here. Let me know if it hasn't come through.

[Trotter]

I don't have any ratings that could be incorporated into this experiment but I do have a numerical system for races up to 8 furlongs

This is based on the average winning trips of sires and damsires. Basically you add them together and divide by two to get a figure in furlongs. I can't remember why now but I called this the SD figure ....... S obviously stands for Stamina but I can't remember what D stands for ........ getting old ! (maybe Distance)

A few years ago I spent a year noting this figure for all winners and horses finishing within 2 lengths of winners in all weather races and then I converted these figures into percentages. If there is any value in this I think it should apply to turf racing as well because it's about the distance not the surface

so for the 2000gns I have range in the field from 7.8 to 10.5 and the 'sweet spot' for horses over a mile is 85 to 95. The following horses qualify with current best price

Alyanaabi - 20/1 wm hill
Haatem - 25/1 bet365
Task Force 20/1 wm hill

This takes into account nothing but the possible suitability for the trip

So for example I have City of Troy with the biggest figure, 10.5 furlongs, which suggests he'd be much more effective in the Derby but he might have enough class to win at a mile even though not ideally suited by it

But on the basis of my little system my 3 E/W shots are .........

Alyanaabi - 20/1 wm hill
Haatem - 25/1 bet365
Task Force 20/1 wm hill

 

 

 

[yossa6133]

2 hours ago, Trotter said:

I don't have any ratings that could be incorporated into this experiment but I do have a numerical system for races up to 8 furlongs

This is based on the average winning trips of sires and damsires. Basically you add them together and divide by two to get a figure in furlongs. I can't remember why now but I called this the SD figure ....... S obviously stands for Stamina but I can't remember what D stands for ........ getting old ! (maybe Distance)

A few years ago I spent a year noting this figure for all winners and horses finishing within 2 lengths of winners in all weather races and then I converted these figures into percentages. If there is any value in this I think it should apply to turf racing as well because it's about the distance not the surface

so for the 2000gns I have range in the field from 7.8 to 10.5 and the 'sweet spot' for horses over a mile is 85 to 95. The following horses qualify with current best price

Alyanaabi - 20/1 wm hill
Haatem - 25/1 bet365
Task Force 20/1 wm hill

This takes into account nothing but the possible suitability for the trip

So for example I have City of Troy with the biggest figure, 10.5 furlongs, which suggests he'd be much more effective in the Derby but he might have enough class to win at a mile even though not ideally suited by it

But on the basis of my little system my 3 E/W shots are .........

Alyanaabi - 20/1 wm hill
Haatem - 25/1 bet365
Task Force 20/1 wm hill

 

 

 

Dosage maybe?

[Trotter]

17 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

Dosage maybe?

not really a term I would use ...... it's a bit technical and used by the real breeding experts

probably just 'Distance' .........

 

[fd1972uk]

On 4/30/2024 at 3:12 PM, harry_rag said:

I'll go first with my less informed view. Might as well try and extract some sense from my frantic spreadsheeting! 

There's a clear top four with the fav rightly the fav but too short for now. River Tiber is 4th but drifting quite a bit on the exchange suggesting it has maybe lost a leg or is about to be withdrawn. Haatem and Ghostwriter the other two. If I had to burn that £20 now:

£4 e/w Haatem 66/1 (using my weekly "Epic Odds" boost)

£5 e/w Ghostwriter 16/1 

£2 win River Tiber at 220

 

Hi, when you say Epic Odds, who is that with?  If Hills, its only the win part that has epic odds.

BTW MGM have a free £10 for the 1000 if you back in 2000.

[harry_rag]

1 minute ago, fd1972uk said:

Hi, when you say Epic Odds, who is that with?  If Hills, its only the win part that has epic odds.

BTW MGM have a free £10 for the 1000 if you back in 2000.

Yes, Hills, and I’m aware of that caveat. Still getting best price at the time and double the win odds.

[fd1972uk]

Yep, I'm not going to use my epic on it personally, going to look at possibly the 1000 and one of tomorrow's races.

Cant see COT losing, so looking at a couple of EW

[MCLARKE]

On 4/30/2024 at 4:06 PM, MCLARKE said:

I can only watch one horse in a race so I'll go with HAATEM who looks the best value. I would probably have £10 EW but would wait until the day of the race as there will probably be 4 places available somewhere and BOG would be available.

I thought there would be 4 places somewhere but not to be so I'll go for a £10 win with BETMGM at 25/1 BOG + I then get a £10 free bet on the 1000 guineas

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I thought there would be 4 places somewhere but not to be so I'll go for a £10 win with BETMGM at 25/1 BOG + I then get a £10 free bet on the 1000 guineas

I took the365 ( yes i know you can't) offer bet £20 quid today at newmarket and get a fee £20 quid tomorrow for any newmarket race