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Racing Chat - December 26th 2023

The Brigadier
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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

Posted
Posted
Merry Christmas everyone - thanks you for reading my pieces this year and I hope somewhere along the journey I've helped you find a winner or two.  
 
Kempton 12.45
We start the day’s ITV coverage with a eight runner novices’ handicap chase run over 2M 4 1/2F. The race has a very open look about it and it maybe worth chancing Alan King’s representative Es Perfecto who made a promising chasing debut in a similar contest as this when chasing home the ten length winner Ginny’s Destiny at Cheltenham 39 days ago. The form has been boosted by the subsequent success of the winner in grade 2 company since. Surprisingly the handicapper has dropped him a pound for that effort and with improvement to come looks likely to be thereabouts with the likes of Blow Your Wad and Russian Ruler dangers.
 
ES PERFECTO 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5 123
 
Aintree 1.05
Registered as the Tolworth Hurdle the newly named Formby Novices’ Hurdle is run here for the first time having previously been raced at Sandown and has attracted a good sized field of ten. With challengers from Ireland and French this race will take some winning and the pick is the Nicky Henderson trained Jango Baie who made a winning debut under rules when getting the better of the re-appearing Tellherthename at Ascot 52 days ago. That form has worked out well and with a stronger pace here likely to suit can continue the good form of the Henderson stable who had an across the card four timer on Saturday.
 
JANGO BAIE 1 point win @ 10/3 William Hill
 
Kempton 1.20
A small but select field of just six line up for this years renewal of the 3M Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase. French challenger Il Est Francais is obviously very smart but has no experience of British fences or drying ground and the one to beat may well be the Paul Nicholls trained Hermes Allen. He steps up to three miles for the first time here under rules but as a 3M Irish point winner and the tightness of this flat track it really shouldn’t be an issue for this exciting novice. His trainer was at pains to say he would need the run before he made a winning chasing debut at Newbury 25 days ago and with likely improvement to come can give his trainer a winner in a race he won two years ago with Bravemansgame.
 
HERMES ALLEN 1 point win @ 15/8 bet365
 
Wetherby 1.35
Only six line up for the 3M Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase with each of the sextet having a chance of sorts. Mark Walford’s Into Overdrive won this last year off of a handicap mark 3lb lower ver than today’s and can score again despite a 287 day absence. He won first time out last season so can run well fresh and with a record at the Yorkshire track of two wins from four starts looks the one to be with. Another horse back from a layoff is Kim Bailey’s top weight Does He Know and he too has a good record fresh and looks a threat.

INTO OVERDRIVE 1 point win @ 7/2 BetVictor
 
Kempton 1.55
Just six go to post for the Ladbrokes Christmas hurdle run over two miles in which see’s the re-appearance of the reigning Champion Hurdler Constitution Hill who remains unbeaten under rules having won all seven of his starts including at the last two Cheltenham Festivals and this very race last year. The fact he has won first time out for the last two years by 12 and 14 lengths suggests he will be ready here and with 26lb and upwards in hand of his rivals it will be a major shock were he to get beaten. Rubaud looks the one for the forecast.
 
Kempton 2.30
The day’s feature race is the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase run over three miles. We only have a field of six but they’re all quality chasers with Willie Mullins’s Allaho heading the market. He must go well but preference is for Paul Nicholl’s Bravemansgame. He is two from two at the track having won the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase and this race here over the last two years. The track and ground conditions look ideal for him and although he may not have been at his best for his two starts this season he’s hardly been beaten that far so he can take this famous race for the second time under his usual partner Harry Cobden.
 
BRAVEMANSGAME 1 point win @ 9/4 BetUK
 
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yossa6133

yossa6133

Posted
Posted (edited)

Russian Ruler 12:45 Kempton (4/1). Caught the eye finishing strongly on chase debut at Newbury after getting outpaced. Step up to 2m 4f should be ideal and has a nice racing weight of 11-2 and gets useful 8lbs from the top 3.

Also have a go at the forecast seeing as it's Christmas. General Medrado did nothing wrong when runner up to a useful one at Plumpton and Blow Your Wad did as well as could be expected against Le Patron at Sandown. They can finish 2nd and 3rd, forecast pays 90/1 with Bet365

0.75pts win @4/1

0.25pts forecast @ 90/1

 

Shocking run, pulled up entering the straight.

 

P/L: +2.1pts

Edited by yossa6133
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Zilzalian

Zilzalian

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Posted

I am fookin intrigued and i been pondering since Satdi, i have had some crap bets in my time so why not one with a sideways squeak. Kerry Lee must know more about horses and Racing than all us punters and i can't fathom why the fook she didn't go for what i saw as easy money and an easy race with Nemean Lion i know this horse well from my French database when it was trained by Andre Fabre when it turned up on these shores to be sent jumping i tipped it up (last year) as one to keep on side as it could be a very serious horse if it took to hoping over hurdles, it did manage to win the welsh champion hurdle as well as a novice grade 2 beating Anyharminasking (foslas) and Colonel Harry (kelso). So i then re-watched all Constitution Hill's races and yes it is a seriously good horse but to my mind if you take away all the arse licking hype i think it can get beat and we all know sooner or later it will get beat because they all do. So i have had a Ben Crenshaw on at 40/1 and a few sick squids on at 33/1 and will see what the prices are like in the morning for BOG before deciding whether to make an even bigger dick of myself and shovel a bit more on. Like i said i have had worse bets. good luck to all those that are having 1pt on Constitution Hill at 1/8 you are brave beyond belief.....😉

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black rabbit

black rabbit

Posted
Posted (edited)

Pedrito                                               12 50 Duv/                  1/40th of a pt ew     16/1

Kotmash                                            12 45 Kem/                 1/40th of a pt ew     22/1

Making Headway                             13 05 Ain//                  1/40th of a pt ew     40/1

Sceau Royal                                      13 55 Ain/                    1/40th of a pt win    140/1

The Real Whacker                             2 30 Kem/                  1/ 40th of a pt win    14/1

 

 

 

P/L  +173.50pts

Edited by black rabbit
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fd1972uk

fd1972uk

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

I am fookin intrigued and i been pondering since Satdi, i have had some crap bets in my time so why not one with a sideways squeak. Kerry Lee must know more about horses and Racing than all us punters and i can't fathom why the fook she didn't go for what i saw as easy money and an easy race with Nemean Lion i know this horse well from my French database when it was trained by Andre Fabre when it turned up on these shores to be sent jumping i tipped it up (last year) as one to keep on side as it could be a very serious horse if it took to hoping over hurdles, it did manage to win the welsh champion hurdle as well as a novice grade 2 beating Anyharminasking (foslas) and Colonel Harry (kelso). So i then re-watched all Constitution Hill's races and yes it is a seriously good horse but to my mind if you take away all the arse licking hype i think it can get beat and we all know sooner or later it will get beat because they all do. So i have had a Ben Crenshaw on at 40/1 and a few sick squids on at 33/1 and will see what the prices are like in the morning for BOG before deciding whether to make an even bigger dick of myself and shovel a bit more on. Like i said i have had worse bets. good luck to all those that are having 1pt on Constitution Hill at 1/8 you are brave beyond belief.....😉

Your horse has been pulled

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Zilzalian

Zilzalian

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:

Your horse has been pulled

Yep thats twice in 3 days so questions need to be asked of the trainer, Its bad for the punter and bad for racing, also agree with @Tedthewolf all season we have suffered with poxy field sizes Flat is getting bad but jumps is on its last legs i think. Good punters put a lot of work in to find selections not much use if there are not many horses and then they pull the buggers out.

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calva decoy

calva decoy

Posted
Posted (edited)

Small stakes fun punts .

1.05 Aintree - JANGO BAIE 5/1 William Hill . 1st 17/2 👍

1.28 Wincanton - NO HUBS NO HOOBS 11/4 Betvictor .2nd 2/1 

2.38 Wincanton - TICKING TOM BOMB 6/1 eway bet365 ( 4 places ) 👎

3.05 Kempton - COURT IN THE ACT 7/2 bet365 . 1st 11/4 

Good luck to all whatever their punting on today & enjoy ALLAHO romping home in the King George . 

some ok(ish) returns & racing has been ok , was impressed with the French horse at Kempton but the so called ' hype ' BIG 3 failed to pull up any trees in the King George , well done to Hanlon & Hewick .

Edited by calva decoy
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Brahmin

Brahmin

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Posted

😱 for  prestige racing meetings at Kempton and Aintree which offers good prize money, then have to agree with comments on thread that its a big negative for Racing in general 🐎.....small fields / late NRs / limited EW betting!

Wish all well with your selections today / tomorrows racing with winners and maybe an upset or two 🤞

 

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calva decoy

calva decoy

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Tedthewolf said:

For me i feel the racing is disappointing  today as i like big field handicaps.

Small fields on the tv races not for me i will save my powder for tomorrow!!

I looked at Leopardstown & bar the 2.20 I was amazed at the amount of entries .

Maybe the UK should take a leaf out of the Irish's book & have more days without jump racing & of a better quality reason why all the owners & money are going there rather than UK & why more trainers / owners & jockeys are also plying their trade in France with UK jumps offering pitiful winnings & if the sun's out it turns into glorified bumper racing . 

In hindsight now both Flat & Jumps UK racing is just turning into ' heritage ' racing with Cheltenham & Royal Ascot the be all & end all , shame really .

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The Equaliser

The Equaliser

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Posted
2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Yep thats twice in 3 days so questions need to be asked of the trainer, Its bad for the punter and bad for racing, also agree with @Tedthewolf all season we have suffered with poxy field sizes Flat is getting bad but jumps is on its last legs i think. Good punters put a lot of work in to find selections not much use if there are not many horses and then they pull the buggers out.

John Francombe said once that people don't realise how hard it is to get a horse to a race course let alone win a race.  It could be that the horse wasn't right and would not have run a good race anyway.  If that's so you may have saved some money.  Just a thought.

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Brahmin

Brahmin

Posted
Posted (edited)

Hi all......follow selections of the thread this afternoon of the 'wise owls' and few of our own to 🤞

Paul Nicholls superboost of either Hermes Allen (13:20)  /  Bravemansgame (14:30) To Win At Kempton @ EVS .............

L Russell got us off to nice start with 'Lady in the Park' @ 7/2    WON 

D/Royal 12.13            Blue D'enfer  11/4

Weth 12.27                Tom Cody    13/8     WON

Kemp 12.45                Es Perfecto  6/1 EW     3rd           General Medrano   6/1 EW     

Kemp 13.20                Il es Francais  15/8     ( Daily Nap & main bet)     WON      

 

     3 WINS 🏆 🏆 🏆 and EW place sooo nice profit was made with Daily nap / main bet winner 🐎 💷

 

Edited by Brahmin
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Zilzalian

Zilzalian

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

John Francombe said once that people don't realise how hard it is to get a horse to a race course let alone win a race.  It could be that the horse wasn't right and would not have run a good race anyway.  If that's so you may have saved some money.  Just a thought.

That only works for 1 race but the same horse pulled twice in two days needs at least an explanation, has anyone heard one?

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kroni

kroni

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

That only works for 1 race but the same horse pulled twice in two days needs at least an explanation, has anyone heard one?

Been pulled on account of the ground from what I can see both times, wants it softer

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yossa6133

yossa6133

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Big clue was Kieth Reveley riding on these shores in addition to it looked just as impressive in its last two runs in Froggery.

Yeah the vibes seemed very strong...I was just worried about the faster ground as he seemed to love the heavy over there.

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Zilzalian

Zilzalian

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, kroni said:

Been pulled on account of the ground from what I can see both times, wants it softer

Yes i believe so but these trainers seem to put a lot of store in ground conditions King did it with Trueshan but if your not careful the horse runs so few times its pointless owning the bugger and lets be honest you win nothing stood in a paddock, add to that good ground on jumps is perfectly safe, IMHO they should have run it on Saturday they are not going to get many more oportunities before season ends Cheltenham is Usually good ground as is the GN meeting.

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Sporting Sam

Sporting Sam

Posted
Posted

Wolverhampton 5:05
Casa Luna
Win
Prince Hector
Each way
These two tick all the boxes for me on the physics front in that they provide a couple of classy unexposed runners.
No more so than bottom weight casa Luna for Paul Kirby.
The yard were second in this contest last Christmas and Casa luna’s promise was looking assured on first three runs in class five for Roger Varian. The winners of those races are rated 100-78.
Recently Paul Kirby has stepped this runner down in trip to 9 furlongs and a definite chance on both the physics and the draw data.

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Sporting Sam

Sporting Sam

Posted
Posted

Draw data horse was actually 3:3 recurring. And if applied correctly have you a minute in stall three would have been the selection.

wolverhampton

Amazing

win

steps up in trip here for Roger Varian

while the draw data horse correctly applied is 4:66 

STRAY BULLET

Each way

David pipes runner is his sixth of the day and only flat runner has hidden form in France of 1122 and first three hurdles runs over this trip lamentable but jockeys half stone claimer of big interest here….

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SoberC

SoberC

Posted
Posted
On 12/24/2023 at 1:02 PM, The Brigadier said:
Merry Christmas everyone - thanks you for reading my pieces this year and I hope somewhere along the journey I've helped you find a winner or two.  
 
 
JANGO BAIE 1 point win @ 10/3 William Hill

I read, thank you, picked some up at Cheltenham, much appreciated. Also ran with this one yesterday for a lovely W. Cheers.

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