Racing Chat - Saturday 23rd December

[The Brigadier]

Haydock 1.30

The Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap chase is run over 3M 1 1/2F and this year has attracted a field of nine stoutly bred stayers. The key form race here is the the contest run over course and distance four weeks ago. Famous Bridge beat Credo by a length and both have claims here but is the horse who finished 4 1/4L back in fourth that appeals the most to me. Venetia Williams’s Eleanor Bob was having his first start for 626 days and led till just before the last, jumping really well. He’s now 6lb better off with the winner Famous Bridge and surely with that run behind him can improve enough to take a hand in the finish for his very much in form stable of Venetia Williams.

 

ELEANOR BOB 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 123

 

Haydock 2.05

Eight line up for this class 3 handicap hurdle run over just short of two miles. Jagwar runs here in preference to Ascot Friday and at time of writing is being smashed up in the betting however the horse I like here is the Lucinda Russell runner Bois Guillbert who was well backed during the morning before his latest start at Cheltenham. He ran well there when weakening on the run in having been just behind the leader at the last finishing a creditable 7 1/2L third to subsequent winner Blueking D’Oroux with another subsequent winner Spirit D’Aunou back in fourth. The handicapper has left him on the same mark for that run and he can run well with regular jockey Stephen Mulqueen on board.

 

BOIS GUILLBERT 1 point win @ 5/1 Betfred

 

Ascot 2.25

A fair sized field of ten here for this 3M 97 yard Howden Long Walk Hurdle. Fergal O’Brien’s Crambo is an exciting staying hurdler but surely is too short here in the betting when you consider on official ratings he’s actually the worst off (bar Gowel Road) in the race. One horse who must go well despite his advancing years is Nicky Henderson’s Champ. He has an excellent record fresh which reads 1211211 which includes taking Newbury’s Long Distance Hurdle last season from Paisley Park who’s back in opposition here today and looks sure to run his usual solid race. The pick has also had a wind operation since last seen (the second in his career) and looks a solid each way bet.

 

CHAMP 1 point each way @ 11/2 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Ascot 3.00

A competitive eleven runner Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase over 3M is next with many holding claims. The two Gavin Cromwell runners at the bottom of the handicap Yeah Man and Hascoeur Clermont have to be given the upmost respect but its the top weight of Venetia Williams’s Victtorino that catches my eye. He won a similar handicap over course and distance seven weeks ago (Yeah Man fell at last and 2lb better off). That was the five year old’s first run for 223 days and was obviously expected to need the run going off at 20/1 so should improve plenty for that fine effort and should run another big race under Williams’s stable jockey Charlie Deutsch.

 

VICTTORINO 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Ascot 3.35

Eleven line up for the valuable Betfair Exchange Trophy, a handicap hurdle run over just short of two miles. Nicky Henderson and J P McManus look the combination to follow here with two strong contenders in the shape of Cheltenham winners from the Paddy Power meeting in Iberico Lord and Impose Toi who both won well and have been raised 8lb and 10lb respectively. Preference is for the former who looked good when winning the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle by 2 1/2L from Lookaway. This race looks no stronger and with Nico De Boinville in the saddle looks the most likeliest winner. The third Henderson runner here is Luccia who can be given a chance on her third to Iberico Lord last time, beaten 9 1/2L and now 8lb better off.

 

IBERICO LORD 1 point win @ 3/1 BetVictor

[Zilzalian]

Not sure what Kerry Lee is up to with Nemean Lion entered Saturday and boxing day Surely she wont be taking on Constitution Hill in the grade 1 so we are left with the 3:35 Ascot tomorrow. Many will say it was well beaten by Iberico Lord in the Greatwood, but if you watch that race again with the proviso that jumping is the name of the game and Nemean Lion made a few mistakes 10/1 makes it worth betting on a clear round 2nd time up.

[calva decoy]

Plenty of Sunshine forecast for tomorrow & for Boxing Day , we all know what that means , glorified bumper racing , hope not .

[black rabbit]

Dr Karanga                                    1 30 Hyd/       1/40th of a pt ew    16/1

Larry                                               3 00 Asc/        1/40th of a pt ew    20/1

Goshen                                           2 25Asc/        1/40th of a pt ew     40/1

Teddy Blue                                     3 35 Asc         1/40th of a pt ew    28/1

 

 

happy christmas to all forum  members 🐎 🍻  and all your wives and lovers { may they never meet 😃😁}

 

 

P/L  +173.70

Edited December 22, 2023 by black rabbit

[richard-westwood]

Long walk hurdle 

Dashel drasher 9.0 9/1 class 116

Paisley park. 8.9 7/1 class. 108 

Champ 8.5 class 114 

West Balboa 8.3 class 105 +

What a cracker of a race ... Old Vs young ... Experienced against newcomers and throw in champ who hasn't had a run this season and you've got one major puzzle .. for me I'm sticking with top 2 Ew as they've had a run so could have a fitness edge on the soft ground 

5pt Ew top 2 

[richard-westwood]

Howdens silver cup Ascot 

Victorino. 8.9  11/2 class 97 

Flegmatik.  8.7  12/1 class 88

Blackjack magic. 8.5 class 80 

Larry.  8.2 class 85 

Guitmaker 8.0 class 66 

5pt Ew top 2 

 

[richard-westwood]

Betfair exchange trophy asc 335 

Altobelli  9.0 11/2  class 91

Luccia 8.8 9/1 class 96 

Nemean. Lion. 8.6 class 92 

Iberico lord. 8.6 class 88 

5pt Ew top 2 

1pt doubles top 2 in all 3 races...12 bets 

[yossa6133]

Triple Trade 1.50 Ascot (3/1 Bet365). Has been running well over 2m but really wants further and the extra 2f here should help.

1pt win 3/1

Wins. Bit lucky as Harper's Brook pulled himself up on the run in but I'll take it 🤑

 

 

P/L: +3.1pts

Edited December 23, 2023 by yossa6133

[White Feather]

Flash Collonges 14/1 general - 4 places

Hansard 12/1 general - 4 places

2 x singles - each way double.

[White Feather]

Four key stats from all the meetings to help you beat the bookies on Saturday

 

Ascot

Liam Harrison's victory aboard Titan Discovery at Ascot on Friday was the sixth winner he has ridden in 13 rides for Robbie Llewellyn this season. Harrison has the opportunity of enhancing that excellent 46 per cent strike-rate on the improving Top Cloud in the 2m7½f novice handicap hurdle (12.40), which opens the second day of the Berkshire venue's Christmas meeting.

The six-year-old has won three of his four starts since joining Llewellyn from Christ Grant and receives weight from all eight of his rivals. Although he is not fancied in the betting to defy a 6lb rise for his latest success at Taunton, that should not necessarily be enough to put you off, as a £1 stake on all of Harrison's rides for Llewellyn this term would have yielded a profit of £33.32.

Haydock

Lucy Turner and Venetia Williams have a 50 per cent strike-rate when combining this season, most notably when landing the Becher Chase with 18-1 shot Chambard, and the pair team up for another major handicap on Saturday. 

Turner, who rode her fourth winner from eight rides for Williams this term when helping Ottoline to a first success at Uttoxeter on Friday, partners Eleanor Bob in the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (1.30).

The nine-year-old made an encouraging return from a 626-day absence over course and distance last month and meets the winner, Famous Bridge, on 11lb better terms due to Turner's 5lb claim.

Williams saddled Pink Legend to Listed success for Eleanor Bob's owner-breeder Francis Mahon at Newbury on Wednesday, while Djelo provided her with a Grade 2 winner at Ascot on Friday. Eleanor Bob could continue a superb week for the trainer with a third victory over fences in the feature £50,000 contest.

Lingfield

Hugo Palmer has struck with both of his nursery runners at Lingfield in 2023 and bids to maintain that 100 per cent record in the 1m2f contest (12.50) with It's Not Risky. The gelded son of Showcasing was well beaten on his handicap debut at Newmarket but improved from that fifth-placed effort to chase home an in-form rival at Wolverhampton last time. It's Not Risky was raised 2lb for finishing second, but given that the fourth, Palazzo Persico, won a 14-runner nursery on his next start, he has an excellent chance of going one better and improving Palmer's superb record in this sphere at this track. A £1 stake on both of the trainer's Lingfield nursery runners this season would have yielded a profit of £47.

 

Newcastle

Henry Brooke has won on all but one of his five rides at Newcastle for Adrian Keatley this season and the pair can enhance that excellent 80 per cent strike-rate in the opening 2m1f novice hurdle (11.55).

Brooke rides Muzaffar, who makes his hurdling and stable debut after being bought for 21,000gns from Richard Fahey in October. The son of Almanzor reached a peak rating of 78 on the Flat and is an intriguing prospect now going jumping. Last month's Musselburgh winner The Kalooki Kid has to be respected under a penalty, but given that a £1 stake on all five of Brooke's mounts for Keatley at the Northumberland venue this term would have yielded a profit of £23.10, Muzaffar could be a serious threat to that likely favourite.

 

[Tedthewolf]

Flegmatik @ 11/1---Placed 14/1

Ascot 15:00 - Winner

4 - 1/ 5

 

 

Returns £0.00

 

Onlyamatteroftime @ 6/1---lost

Ascot 15:35 - Winner

4 - 1/ 5

 

 

Returns £0.00

 

Credo @ 11/2----Placed

Haydock 13:30 - Winner

3 - 1/ 5

 

 

 

3x  .25 e/w doubles

 

1x  .25 ew treb

 

2pts invested

 

Return 2pts

Edited December 23, 2023 by Tedthewolf

[The Brigadier]

1 hour ago, White Feather said:

Four key stats from all the meetings to help you beat the bookies on Saturday

 

Ascot

Liam Harrison's victory aboard Titan Discovery at Ascot on Friday was the sixth winner he has ridden in 13 rides for Robbie Llewellyn this season. Harrison has the opportunity of enhancing that excellent 46 per cent strike-rate on the improving Top Cloud in the 2m7½f novice handicap hurdle (12.40), which opens the second day of the Berkshire venue's Christmas meeting.

The six-year-old has won three of his four starts since joining Llewellyn from Christ Grant and receives weight from all eight of his rivals. Although he is not fancied in the betting to defy a 6lb rise for his latest success at Taunton, that should not necessarily be enough to put you off, as a £1 stake on all of Harrison's rides for Llewellyn this term would have yielded a profit of £33.32.

Haydock

Lucy Turner and Venetia Williams have a 50 per cent strike-rate when combining this season, most notably when landing the Becher Chase with 18-1 shot Chambard, and the pair team up for another major handicap on Saturday. 

Turner, who rode her fourth winner from eight rides for Williams this term when helping Ottoline to a first success at Uttoxeter on Friday, partners Eleanor Bob in the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase (1.30).

The nine-year-old made an encouraging return from a 626-day absence over course and distance last month and meets the winner, Famous Bridge, on 11lb better terms due to Turner's 5lb claim.

Williams saddled Pink Legend to Listed success for Eleanor Bob's owner-breeder Francis Mahon at Newbury on Wednesday, while Djelo provided her with a Grade 2 winner at Ascot on Friday. Eleanor Bob could continue a superb week for the trainer with a third victory over fences in the feature £50,000 contest.

Lingfield

Hugo Palmer has struck with both of his nursery runners at Lingfield in 2023 and bids to maintain that 100 per cent record in the 1m2f contest (12.50) with It's Not Risky. The gelded son of Showcasing was well beaten on his handicap debut at Newmarket but improved from that fifth-placed effort to chase home an in-form rival at Wolverhampton last time. It's Not Risky was raised 2lb for finishing second, but given that the fourth, Palazzo Persico, won a 14-runner nursery on his next start, he has an excellent chance of going one better and improving Palmer's superb record in this sphere at this track. A £1 stake on both of the trainer's Lingfield nursery runners this season would have yielded a profit of £47.

 

Newcastle

Henry Brooke has won on all but one of his five rides at Newcastle for Adrian Keatley this season and the pair can enhance that excellent 80 per cent strike-rate in the opening 2m1f novice hurdle (11.55).

Brooke rides Muzaffar, who makes his hurdling and stable debut after being bought for 21,000gns from Richard Fahey in October. The son of Almanzor reached a peak rating of 78 on the Flat and is an intriguing prospect now going jumping. Last month's Musselburgh winner The Kalooki Kid has to be respected under a penalty, but given that a £1 stake on all five of Brooke's mounts for Keatley at the Northumberland venue this term would have yielded a profit of £23.10, Muzaffar could be a serious threat to that likely favourite.

 

great stats there @White Feather - hope the Venetia Williams & Lucy Turner one works out 

[MCLARKE]

5yo selections

[White Feather]

35 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:

great stats there @White Feather - hope the Venetia Williams & Lucy Turner one works out 

Thank you, glad you got 6s, the best I got was 4s

[fd1972uk]

Bad start

Solo, would've been better asking Harrison Ford to race.

Eleanor Bob, would've been better asking a couple of people called Eleanor and Bob to stick on a horse outfit and race.

On dashel dasher and Victorrino,  also a tried a double on champ and nemian lion.

Ladbrokes lucky dip has 1/2 of yeah man and flash collonges 70/1

[Brahmin]

Hi all, going with selections from the 'wise owls' today on thread / top trainers Nicholls & Henderson and our own 🐎 🤞

Hay 12.20   Issuing Authority  from Henderson yard @ 2/1 off to nice start  WON

Ascot 1.15    Solo  from Nicholls yard  5/6

Hay 1.30     Eleanor Bob  7/2 from @TheBrigadier           Famous Bridge   7/2     WON

Ascot 1.50    Triple Trade  5/2  from @yossa6133     WON            Cap du Mathan   5/2  from Nicholls yard 

Hay 2.05       Bois Guillbert  9/2  from @TheBrigadier                 Jagwar    5/2

Ascot 2.25       Paisley Park  top 4 finish @ 6/4 Betfair   WON              West Balboa  10/3                    Champ 6/1  EW   from @TheBrigadier          

 

 Am happy lady taking the 4 WINS 🏆 🏆 🏆 🏆 profit, be even happier Monday when see my gifts from my husband who out getting 1 this afternoon 😘                

 

Edited December 23, 2023 by Brahmin

[richard-westwood]

20 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Long walk hurdle 

Dashel drasher 9.0 9/1 class 116

Paisley park. 8.9 7/1 class. 108 

Champ 8.5 class 114 

West Balboa 8.3 class 105 +

What a cracker of a race ... Old Vs young ... Experienced against newcomers and throw in champ who hasn't had a run this season and you've got one major puzzle .. for me I'm sticking with top 2 Ew as they've had a run so could have a fitness edge on the soft ground 

5pt Ew top 2 

Beaten on photo .....2nd and 3rd ...both Ew money 

[Zilzalian]

On 12/22/2023 at 10:57 AM, Zilzalian said:

Not sure what Kerry Lee is up to with Nemean Lion entered Saturday and boxing day Surely she wont be taking on Constitution Hill in the grade 1 so we are left with the 3:35 Ascot tomorrow. Many will say it was well beaten by Iberico Lord in the Greatwood, but if you watch that race again with the proviso that jumping is the name of the game and Nemean Lion made a few mistakes 10/1 makes it worth betting on a clear round 2nd time up.

What was the excuse for not running nemean lion today after having declared it just to make it a nr 1 hour before the race? That is the sort of thing that puts me right off having a bet. the suggestion is that it will take on constitution hill WTF is that all about?

[richard-westwood]

20 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Howdens silver cup Ascot 

Victorino. 8.9  11/2 class 97 

Flegmatik.  8.7  12/1 class 88

Blackjack magic. 8.5 class 80 

Larry.  8.2 class 85 

Guitmaker 8.0 class 66 

5pt Ew top 2 

 

1st and 3 rd

[Deauville]

4 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Finished with 1st and 3rd .....that's 2 winning races and a double up too .....giving approx +169.00 on the day. ....merry Xmas 🎁

Absolutely superb 

Wishing you a Merry Christmas