Arc de Triomphe - Longchamp, Sunday 1st October

[richard-westwood]

Any thoughts on the arc ??

These are my ratings for the race currently ....

Hukum.  9.0. 5/1 

Westover. 8.9. 8/1 

Ace impact. 8.4 

Continuous with run. 8.4 

August Rodin. 8.3 

Arrest.   7.9 

Luxembourg. 7.9 

Feed the flame. 7.9 

Currently only the top 2 interest me 🤔

[Zilzalian]

Got lots of thoughts on the arc and i am still formulating. I will give you a starter for ten tho O'Briens got a shocking record in the arc so you have done well to suggest the top two but from what i already know Ace Impact is as good a fav than i have ever seen in the arc other than Alpenista, and i dislike favs so will try to get it beat.

Edited September 24, 2023 by Zilzalian
update

[richard-westwood]

Could be ground dependant .....I think if it comes up gdsft to soft that gives bonus points to hukum ....if it came up close to good that would give bonus points to Westover .,...the fav isn't bad ....but usually the ground comes up gdsft and most of the favs form is in good     .plus is stepping up in trip against battle hardened trip specialists....so the price looks a little cramped for me .....continuous is still a dark horse ....may improve again so that would put them bang in there but will have to I think .....for me I'll be shocked if winner isn't in top 4 

The only negative that does really stand out for me is the last run .....almost all winners of the arc were match fit and running peak within say 30 days....fav is 47 ...top 2 are 64!!!.....that's not good ....leaving continuius on 15!!.....continuous is the only qualifier on days...that's a biggy because I think 18 /20 arc winners all ran within 34 days ...fitness is key

That boosts continuous rating a notch or two   🤔

Edited September 25, 2023 by richard-westwood

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

Could be ground dependant .....I think if it comes up gdsft to soft that gives bonus points to hukum ....if it came up close to good that would give bonus points to Westover .,...the fav isn't bad ....but usually the ground comes up gdsft and most of the favs form is in good     .plus is stepping up in trip against battle hardened trip specialists....so the price looks a little cramped for me .....continuous is still a dark horse ....may improve again so that would put them bang in there but will have to I think .....for me I'll be shocked if winner isn't in top 4 

The only negative that does really stand out for me is the last run .....almost all winners of the arc were match fit and running peak within say 30 days....fav is 47 ...top 2 are 64!!!.....that's not good ....leaving continuius on 15!!.....continuous is the only qualifier on days...that's a biggy because I think 18 /20 arc winners all ran within 34 days ...fitness is key

That boosts continuous rating a notch or two   🤔

look at the stats for the prix neil and the other arc trials i have said previously in the recent past the arc winner usually started fav or won mostly the prix neil or one of the other trials. fully agree with your points about the fav they are 100% valid. Continuous for me would be running as an after thought which is not good by most measure.

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

look at the stats for the prix neil and the other arc trials i have said previously in the recent past the arc winner usually started fav or won mostly the prix neil or one of the other trials. fully agree with your points about the fav they are 100% valid. Continuous for me would be running as an after thought which is not good by most measure.

See for me I really liked the top 2 but the fitness thing is huge ....yes the break might freshen up top 2 but no guarantees ...2 months off is a huge ask to give 100% and you do need 100% to win the arc .....the fav is training well on gallops but if connections pay the 120000 to supplement continuous Wednesday and it's looking very likely now as seems to be impressing at home  then for me that's where the value lies now so 8/1 Ew would seem a golden bet ...will be staying on when all the others are floundering ....if I could get 4 places I'd be overjoyed ....but I doubt that 

Another thing I like about continuous ...if you.. re watch the leger continuous wants to go faster and is being held back so that bodes well for the arc and the step back ....has a lot going for it 

Edited September 25, 2023 by richard-westwood

[yossa6133]

Should be decent ground for a change with a dry week forecast. I backed Act Impact when Zilzalian said at 8/1 and have laid it for my stake this week for a free bet. The Japanese one Through Seven Seas finished close to Equinox and I've seen a couple of people giving her a chance at 16/1, 

 

[calva decoy]

After winning the Group 1 Grand Prix De Paris Sky Bet had cocked up & left the Arc market open so FEED THE FLAME was still 50/1 in which I had a free £5 sky bet each way £2.50 .

I logged out & within a couple of minutes again looked at the price & he was 14/1 & was as low as 8's with some firms .

Really hoping for some rain & of the 5 favourites & odds on favourites all beaten on Arc Trials day a few weeks ago including FTF I'm not that worried about , even if he doesn't make the frame getting the price felt like a win v Sky Bet whereas the rest of the bookies had paused the market prior to his win .

Not just the Arc but the whole days card is usually excellent .

Edited September 25, 2023 by calva decoy

[richard-westwood]

Time form 

Westover 132

Hukum. 131 

Ace impact  129p

August Rodin. 128

Luxembourg 127 

Continuous. 124 

Arrest 119

 

Edited September 25, 2023 by richard-westwood

[Trotter]

August Rodin and Luxembourg taken out by AoB

He's left Emily Dickinson in but she'll probably go fo the Cadran

Looks like Continuous might be his only runner ............. if supplemented !

[Trotter]

As expected Emily Dickinson has been taken out and will go for the Cadran over 2.5 miles

Continuous is supplemented along with German ace Fantastic Moon who won the Prix Neil (Arc Trial)

Latest odds 

Corals: 10-3 Ace Impact, 4 Hukum, 11-2 Continuous, 6 Westover, 8 Feed The Flame, 10 Fantastic Moon, 12 Bay Bridge, Through Seven Seas, 16 Simca Mille, 20 Free Wind, Mr Hollywood, Place Du Carrousel, 33 Onesto, 100 Sisfahan, Haya Zark

[richard-westwood]

I was going to back both ace impact and continuous but opted for the Ew bet on continuous at 8/1 ....it was a risk as he may not of run but vibes were good so it was worth the risk ....had 10pt Ew at 8/1 ....happy to let that ride alone  now and get a run .... I just hope he does himself justice now and gets a place at least 

[Zilzalian]

6 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

I was going to back both ace impact and continuous but opted for the Ew bet on continuous at 8/1 ....it was a risk as he may not of run but vibes were good so it was worth the risk ....had 10pt Ew at 8/1 ....happy to let that ride alone  now and get a run .... I just hope he does himself justice now and gets a place at least 

Lots of negatives for me continuous,

1 O'brien's record in the arc.

2 hard race at donny

3 price is shocking

4 wrong trip doesn't seem to have the speed to keep up with this lot.

5 15L to find with ace impact.

6 hasn't beaten anything of note.

7 supplementary entries are an after thought (O'Brien knows his horses he never thought it was good enough 3/6 months ago so why the change of mind?)

[richard-westwood]

9 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Lots of negatives for me continuous,

1 O'brien's record in the arc.

2 hard race at donny

3 price is shocking

4 wrong trip doesn't seem to have the speed to keep up with this lot.

5 15L to find with ace impact.

6 hasn't beaten anything of note.

7 supplementary entries are an after thought (O'Brien knows his horses he never thought it was good enough 3/6 months ago so why the change of mind?)

Your most likely right ....it's one of the most intriguing arcs I've seen in ages ...so many angles and possibilities.......for me I based it on continuous wanting to go faster in the leger so I've upgraded the speed rating 3 points and then has fitness advantage too downgrading the top 2...2 points ....and ace had distance issues too ....very few horses win the arc without dist proven form  .. so for me the top four are more or less on equal footing ....so it literally may come down to who's fittest on the day and for me that's continuous ......but sometimes the arc doesn't interest me but this year it's an exciting race whatever happens

in my head I'm racing for a place ...the 1.6/1 is good enough for me to get the excitement of having a go in such an exciting race ....and he's got a squeak at winning ....after all o Brien has to win sooner or later ...right ???..

continuous ....flounder or rally !!.....roll up roll up ....place your bets ....🤣🤣 🤩

Edited September 28, 2023 by richard-westwood

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

Your most likely right ....it's one of the most intriguing arcs I've seen in ages ...so many angles and possibilities.......for me I based it on continuous wanting to go faster in the leger so I've upgraded the speed rating 3 points and then has fitness advantage too downgrading the top 2...2 points ....and ace had distance issues too ....very few horses win the arc without dist proven form  .. so for me the top four are more or less on equal footing ....so it literally may come down to who's fittest on the day and for me that's continuous ......but sometimes the arc doesn't interest me but this year it's an exciting race whatever happens

in my head I'm racing for a place ...the 1.6/1 is good enough for me to get the excitement of having a go in such an exciting race ....and he's got a squeak at winning ....after all o Brien has to win sooner or later ...right ???..

continuous ....flounder or rally !!.....roll up roll up ....place your bets ....🤣🤣 🤩

Well Richard my ratings have made a liar out of me because Continuous comes out 3rd although i wont be backing it, missed out on the negatives that St Leger winners don't win Arcs, like i said that's a lot of negatives. Its a good and interesting debate though. I will post my full ratings later on. 🤣 I suppose @MCLARKE will be able to chuck some stats at us.

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

 I suppose @MCLARKE will be able to chuck some stats at us.

I'm afraid not, I don't have any data for foreign racing.

[The Brigadier]

This year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe will be run on ground just on the easy side of good with Paris basking in sunshine this week and here’s my horse by horse look at the big race which has a staggering £4,424,779 in prize money going down to the fifth.

 

SISAFAHAN (stall 13)

Trainer: Henk Grewe

Jockey: Lucas Delozier

One of two for German handler Henk Grewe. Runner up in Grosser Preis Von Berlin in August his best effort. Outsider and impossible to fancy.

 

HAYA ZARK (4)

Trainer: Adrien Fouassier

Jockey: Gerald Mosse

Yet to race in a Group 1 and looks out of his league here - forget him.

 

ONESTO (9)

Trainer: F Chappet

Jockey: Maxine Guyon

10th last year in very soft ground. Yet to shine this year at shorter distances and stepping back up in trip. Has plenty of ability but needs to step up again here.

 

SIMCA MILLE (15)

Trainer: S Wattel

Jockey: Alexis Pouchin

Won seven of his 14 career starts. Won three of his 4 starts this season including last time out in the Group 1 Grosser Preis Von Berlin when odds on from Sisfahan. Won last year’s Prix Neil and is no forlorn hope though has the coffin draw in 15.

 

BAY BRIDGE (6)

Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute

Jockey: Richard Kingscote

Unexposed at today’s trip of 12F. Impressed when beating Candleford on his first attempt at 12F in the Group 3 September Stakes earlier this month. Smart on his day and well drawn in 5. Player

 

WESTOVER (1)

Trainer: Ralph Beckett

Jockey: Rob Hornby

6th last year when ground was too soft for him. Smart 4 year old who has been very consistent this season, winning Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud in July prior to a head second to Hukum in King George at Ascot. Had recent away day at Salisbury and been to the beech last week. Can run well from stall 1.

 

HUKUM (14)

Trainer: Owen Burrows

Jockey: Jim Crowley

A head winner from Westover in King George at Ascot last time and there shouldn’t be much between the pair today. Has everything in his favour except a wide draw of 14 which is off putting.

 

PLACE DE CARROUSEL (11)

Trainer: A Fabre

Jockey: Michael Barzalona

Only his tenth race and stepped up to this trip when a neck winner of the Prix Foy on trials day over course and distance three weeks ago. Won on this card last year in the 10f Prix de L’Opera from Nashwa and with top connections behind him is a lively outsider even if he is officially rated 13lb behind the top rated Hukum.

 

THROUGH SEVEN SEAS (5)

Trainer: Tomohito Ozeki

Jockey: Christophe-Patrice Lemaire

Represents Japan. Only went down by a neck from the Equinox (who hammered Westover previously in Dubai) when last seen in June in the Grade 1 Takarazuka Kinen at 55/1. That represents a vastly improved effort and will need a similar run to go well here.

 

FREE WIND (3)

Trainer: John & Thady Gosden

Jockey: Frankie Dettori

Dettori’s final Arc, a race he’s won six times. Bounced back to form when runner up in the Yorkshire Oaks beaten a head by Warm Heart. Place claims but hard to see her worrying the principals.

 

MR HOLLYWOOD (10)

Trainer: Henk Grewe

Jockey: Bauyrzhan Murzabayev

Lightly raced three year old from Germany. Runner up to Fantastic Moon in German Derby and only went down by a neck in six runner Group 1 at Baden Baden earlier this month. Looks held by Fantastic Moon.

 

FEED THE FLAME (2)

Trainer: P Bary

Jockey: Christophe Soumillon

Took the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris over course and distance in July and went down by 2 1/2L from Fantastic Moon in Prix Neil on trials day when an odds on chance. Was 6 3/4L behind favourite Ace Impact in French Derby (1M 2 1/2F). Only his sixth start and open to more improvement.

 

ACE IMPACT (8)

Trainer: J-C Rouget

Jockey: Cristian Demuro

Unbeaten son of Cracksman. Impressive 3 1/2L winner of French Derby at Chantilly in June and followed up when beating Al Riffa by 3/4L in Group 2 at Deauville in prep race for this. Hard to crab but has yet to race beyond 1M 2 1/2F and a few questions on breeding to doubt his ability to see out this 12F.

 

FANTASTIC MOON (12)

Trainer: Frau S Steinberg

Jockey: Rene Piechulek

Won four of his 6 starts including Group 1 German Derby and Group 2 Prix Niel over course and distance. Easily best of the German trio and with his connections stating he needs good ground is a player here having been supplemented for the race earlier in the week.

 

CONTINUOUS (7)

Trainer: A P O’Brien

Jockey: Ryan Moore

Supplemented for this after winning the St. Leger a fortnight ago. Leger winners have never won this race the same year they’ve won that classic so has a tough task. Opposable despite a near perfect draw.

 

Summary:-

 

Ace Impact has to prove his stamina here and at around the 3/1 mark is worth taking on as is St Leger winner Continous who had a tough enough race a fortnight ago and this is very much an after thought.

There’s nothing between Hukum and Westover on King George form with preference for the latter who’s fared best in the draw.

The pick though is the German runner Fantastic Moon who was supplemented earlier in the week. He has ground conditions in his favour and this German Derby winner has done little wrong in his short career. The only negative for me is his stall position of 12 but with a smaller field than usual he may be able to overcome that and can be backed each way.

 

FANTASTIC MOON 1 point each way @ 12/1 1/5th 1234 Bet Victor/Betfred/Boyles

 

 

[Zilzalian]

Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe

 

Sisfahan.

German raider gets beat far too often to be considered an arc winner its only chance rests on a deluge and hock deep ground

Haya Zark.

Won Races but only on very soft to heavy ground 100/1 is about the right price.

Onesto.

Can run good races closely matched with Simca Mille place prospects maybe

Simca Mille.

Not to be underestimated as he won the Prix Neil last year but missed the Arc, has very good form by any measure and at 20/1 is well over priced.

Bay Bridge.

Can run a big race but 12/1 is poor value, another that gets beat far too often would be a poor Arc if this one won but has a chance.

Westover.

Quirky horse has got talent but often comes up short 6/1 is a shocking price.

Hukum.

Can't really fault this horse but I have the suspicion it's not good enough to win this Arc. 9/2 is probably a fair price.

Place Du Carrousel.

20/1 about a Fabre horse is not to be ignored he knows how and what to do to win this race as he showed when he got Waldgeist to beat Enable among other genius plays. He has a line on some of these with Bravais.

Through Seven Seas.

Price reflects only one piece of form and that is being beaten ¼L by Equinox on GF ground so is bad value at 12/1.

Free Wind.

Got some good pieces of form and is no forlorn hope if running its best race. 16/1 is generous

Mr Hollywood.

Held by Fantastic Moon another who needs a downpour but even then will come up short.

Feed the Flame.

Fav for this years Prix Neil but comfortably beaten or given too much to do against Fantastic Moon my reverse those placing but I prefer to think Fantastic Moon won fair and square. The price difference seems a quirk of the noise to me.

Ace Impact.

On the surface of it this looks a very strong favourite with a big speed figure to back it up, it is unbeaten and has looked impressive in all its races the only negative being the trip but I wouldn't make too much of that 3/1 is not my idea of a bet but is understandable. The 8/1 I and a few others took looks a lot better.

Fantastic Moon.

German Prix Neil winner and won it comfortably to me and didn't look like it was stopping at the line. 12/1 is still good value even though it was chalked up at 33's earlier by Skybet. Obvious chance to my mind.

Continuous.

Can't have this one far too many negatives and a shocking price at 5/1 St Leger winners don't win arcs and that wasn't the best Leger we have seen. Might make me look a plonker but wouldn't touch it with the wifes money let alone my grannies.

 

1 Ace Impact 2 Simca Mille 3. Fantastic Moon. 4. Bay Bridge 5 Place Du Carrousel.

 

F/casts and T/asts for me. Win bets placed -Ace impact 8/1,Fantastic Moon 20/1 Simca Mille 30/1.

	ZR	SR	ZSR	GOING	CRSE	DIST	ZR	SR	ZSR
ACE IMPACT	152	119	271	GS,G,H		?	1		1
BAY BRIDGE	140	118	258	ST,GS,G		OK	2		2
CONTINUOUS	136	121	257	S,GF,VS		OK	3	3	3
SIMCA MILLE	128	111	239	G,S	CD	OK
FREE WIND	124	119	243	H,S,G		OK
HUKUM	122	127	249	G,GS S		OK		1
ONESTO	120	111	231	S,GS		OK
WESTOVER	117	126	243	G,GS		OK		2
FEED THE FLAME	115	85	200	G,GS	CD	OK
FANTASTIC MOON	110	85	195	G,GS	CD	OK
PLACE DU CARROUSEL	100	104	204	H, VS, S	CD	OK
MR HOLLYWOOD	98	0	98	H,S,G		OK
HAYA ZARK	82	79	161	H,S,G		OK
SISFAHAN	82	106	188	S,G		OK
THROUGH SEVEN SEAS	?	?	?	GF,G		?

[calva decoy]

A couple i've done on Saturday's card both each way .

2.58 - STANGHELI 16/1 bet365 ( 4 )  3rd 22/1 with b.o.g. 👍

3.33 - SEA SILK ROAD 7/1 bet365 ( 4 ) 1st 6/1 👍

talk of the going being good to firm tomorrow , hope not , here's hoping minimum of a very heavy dew .

Edited September 30, 2023 by calva decoy

[ivans82]

On the question of Continuous ( not to say i am backing it ) but it tanked through the Leger pulling double . Sealed the race 2 furlongs out with a real change of pace , quickened away and perhaps if anything tired in the last furlong  . Looked as if the one mile six stretched it slightly and 12f might be its ideal trip . Ryan Moore only gave the horse a couple of taps so he thought there was plenty left ...........personally i want Westover to win  ,  been so unlucky in the past .

[ivans82]

Just had a quick look at the Abbaye tomorrow  .Pontoss looks the e-w play to me at 16-1 4 places with Coral  . Drawn 2 and is a front runner  ,  All the first 5 or 6 in the betting are drawn out in the Car Park so this one will do for me ...Highfield Princess is as low as 5-2 with some forms and has a shocking draw  ,  if it wins form there the others must be trees .

[black rabbit]

Equality                                                                4 25 Lon/                        1/40th of a pt ew   20/1

Perdika                                                                 4 25 Lon/                        1/40th of a pt ew   33/1

Feed the Flame                                                   3 05 Lon/                        1/40th of a pt ew   14/1  { punted previously }

Edited October 1, 2023 by black rabbit
selections

[Zilzalian]

The draw at longchamp is not as bad as people think its position thats important don't be put off the one you fancy because of the draw.

as for the arc itself a draw has never won but usually the best horse does.

[Brahmin]

well Longchamp racing is it looks like, as Epsoms 7 race card has 10 runners in opening for 2 yr olds, then pitiful.

Plenty of Brit / Irish interest for all in Paris if so wish, with an eye on  A Fabre runners too!  In the opening 7 races, have 6 with large home runners in with Great prize money.

6.30pm good luck all with your racing 🤞 .....about to eat/drink as better half home now from Salon so see how my oven doing 😂......both still sober after bottle of white wine Saturday evening.... sooooo 3 selections for the Arc to hopefully pay for our Grandsons new Football boots 😎.......Mrs Brahmins logic is cover all bases with horses drawn 1 - 8 - 15 🙄 .....no doubt she be proved right and i'll be paying for the Boots!

Woop woop 💃 🏆 1st & 2nd so all happy .....especially our grandson ⚽

Arc 3.05            Ace Impact  11/4    WON.    (b365 boost)                   Westover  7/1 EW  2nd.  (betfair)                 Simca Mille   28/1 EW  (betfair)            4 places             

 

Earlier selections we did but small stakes..... We hit very nicely in ARC result 🥂💷

1.15.   Rosallion. 9/2  WON.      Unquestionable 6/1. 

1.50.  Opera Singer 2/1. WON.     Extraordinaire 66/1 Ew

 

Edited October 1, 2023 by Brahmin

[Sporting Sam]

Ace impact ( win)is unbeaten and that has to be the starting point of interest.
High enough draw for one so young.
Through Seven Seas
Each way
Has a nice low draw. While it is disappointing not to see a Japanese jockey on board, he must have a huge chance as horses finishing in the mere flatulence slipstream of Equinox have routinely franked the form this year.
The frenzied Nippon hordes will likely smash the Paris mutual into tote £1 better than SP odds proportions.
Talking of trapped wind, (and I wasn’t) Frankie Dettori’s last ride in the Arc before he comes out of retirement next year to ride in the Arc (and the Breeders cup) is on Free wind (each way).

Ace impact 

win

 

Through Seven Seas

Free wind

Both each way

Edited October 1, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[kensland]

Fancies for Arc..

Fantastic Moon    8/1

Simca Mille             28/1

Place Du Carrousel       25/1

all ew

Good luck all. 

[black rabbit]

On 9/30/2023 at 4:52 PM, black rabbit said:

Equality                                                                4 25 Lon/                        1/40th of a pt ew   20/1

Perdika                                                                 4 25 Lon/                        1/40th of a pt ew   33/1        - 2nd

Feed the Flame                                                   3 05 Lon/                        1/40th of a pt ew   14/1  { punted previously }

long way off  { but i'll be having an A/P punt on "Rosallion" after that performance in the opening group 1 😑

Edited October 1, 2023 by black rabbit

[black rabbit]

5 hours ago, black rabbit said:

long way off  { but i'll be having an A/P punt on "Rosallion" after that performance in the opening group 1 😑

in next years Guineas    { got 33"s      now downn to 16's }

Edited October 1, 2023 by black rabbit

[In Play Race Reader]

There calling it good-soft but judging by times yesterday and early races today I would suggest it’s good-firm 

[In Play Race Reader]

Will take Through Seven Seas and Feed The Flame 

[Sporting Sam]

Frankie interviewed

“me, me,  34 years me, me me

not a mention of the winner .

like the mother of the groom who wears white to her son’s  wedding.