Racing Chat - Wednesday - 17th May

[The Brigadier]

The first day of three of York’s Dante meeting starts with Ed and the gang at ITV showing the first five from the Knavesmire where the ground is good, so no real excuses. There’s also a race from down in the West Country over the jumps at Newton Abbot where they race on soft ground.

Here are my free horse racing tips for the day’s terrestrial action.

 

York 13:50

A near maximum field of seventeen go to post for this competitive 1M 4F Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Jorvik Handicap. The most interesting runner to me is the Sir Michael Stoute trained Real Dream who made a winning handicap debut at Kempton a fortnight ago and has only been raised 5lb. Ryan Moore takes over from Richard Kingscote and would have been the pick here were he not drawn out so wide in 17 of 17. Not unsurmountable but the last 9 winners of this race have been drawn 9, 7, 7, 5, 7, 6, 6, 9, 3 & 10 and Moore will have to have a serious plan to overcome racing that deep on the Knavesmire.

William Haggas loves a winner here and saddles a brace of runners in Tasman Bay who’s joined Haggas’s from Sir Mark Todd and has some smart form on his CV from a couple of years back and La Yakel who is ridden by Tom Marquand and should be competitive. The Godolphin runner White Wolf looks interesting as he’s lightly raced and in first time cheek pieces is worth a close eye in the market with Oisin Murphy booked who of course rode the 1000 Guineas for the trainer earlier this month.

Kevin Ryan is another trainer who loves a winner here and I do fancy his two runners here in Thundering who’s best ever run came over course and distance last year at the Ebor meeting when going down by 3/4L to Farhan and has fallen back down to the same mark today. With a run behind him on possibly unsuitable soft ground he can run well with Tom Eaves in the saddle whilst Ryan’s other runner Forza Orta was runner up in this contest last year to a Haggas improver and like his stablemate has prepped for this with a run at Thirsk last month on ground that may have also been too slow for him. Rowan Scott rides and I think the bet here is to split the stakes on the Kevin Ryan pair.

 

THUNDERING 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

FORZA ORTA 1/2 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Newton Abbot 14:05

A class 4 handicap hurdle run over 2m 2 1/2F on soft ground is next up with the race having an open look about it. Nigel Hawke’s Inferno Sacree has been in excellent form recently winning four of his last five starts with his customary front running style. He’s been shunted up 9lb for his latest win at Perth but should still be thereabouts on his favoured soft ground.

Harry Fry, fresh from taking the Chester Cup on the flat last week, saddles Monjules who he himself was runner up on the level at Salisbury when last seen and is another with claims with Milton Harris’s Polyphonic’s form tied in to that one’s form.

One horse that has plummeted down the handicap is top weight The Pink’n trained by Seamus Mullins and gave signs last time that he may be ready to bounce back to form especially as he’s now 20lb lower than his highest ever career mark. It would be no shock were he to run well but I have to stick with Inferno Sacree who we’re sure to get a decent run from as he’ll be out on front.

 

INFERNO SACREE 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5th 123

 

York 14:25

A real cavalry charge is up next with a maximum twenty two runners spread across the track for the Churchill Tyres Handicap, a class 2 6F handicap where many hold chances.

Last year’s one-two Dakota Gold (5 wins from 11 starts here) and Makanah are back to renew battle with the latter 2lb better off for a head on last year’s showing and both can run well.

Kevin Ryan runs four in the apprentice ridden Aleezdancer, Magical Spirit, Bielsa and Gis A Sub and it’s the last two that appeal most to me. Bielsa ran a fine race on his re-appearance when runner up at Redcar in a race that’s worked out well with the winner and fourth winning since. He’s now on a mark 3lb lower than his impressive victory in the Ayr Gold Cup in September 2021 and should be thereabouts whilst his stablemate Gis A Sub showed up well for a long way on his re-appearance at Newmarket when 8th to Probe with four of today’s opponents behind and with a further 2lb drop in the weights looks ready to run well under Shane Gray. He was runner up in the Gimcrack over course and distance in August 2021 and looks well treated on that run alone.

William Haggas’s Khanjar is another who should be taken seriously as he’s won fresh before and looks favourably treated.

A typically hard York Handicap but I’ll split my stakes between two of the Ryan horses in Gis A Sub and Bielsa.

 

BIELSA 1 point each way @ 12/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345

GIS A SUB 1 point each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

York 15:00

The Group 2 1895 Duke Of York Clipper Stakes is run over 6F and has attracted a field of eleven this year. The likely favourite is the likeable John Quinn six year old mare Highfield Princess who had a terrific season last year winning this race before going on and taking three Group ones and a good fourth in the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint. She has to shoulder a 5lb penalty for her success’s and came into this race last year having already had four runs. She’s been beaten both starts after a break of 100 days plus and may find this tough on her re-appearance. At the prices I’m happy to look elsewhere for some value.

Charlie Appleby’s smart Creative Force is, surprisingly, out again quickly having won a four runner contest at Haydock last Saturday. He’s a smart sort who was placed in all the big Group one sprints last Summer and with fitness on his side can take this valuable prize.

Annaf and Diligent Harry are easily over looked as they both seem better on synthetic surfaces whilst Emaraaty Ana has a patchy record when fresh. The Australian’s have always done well with their forays over here with their sprinters and send over The Astrologist with Ryan Moore booked. It’s hard to evaluate their form but would be no shock were he to run well.

The biggest threat to Creative Force may come from the only three year old in the field in the shape of the Karl Burke trained Marshman who was a smart sprinting juvenile and put up a decent winning re-appearance in France when winning a Group 3 at Chantilly on soft ground over 5 1/2F in April. He handles faster ground well and I expect a big run from him especially as he can claim the 9lb weight for age allowance here.

 

CREATIVE FORCE 2 points win @ 7/2 BetVictor

 

15:35

A field of eight have declared for the Tattersalls Musidora Stakes, a Group 3 contest run over 1M 2 1/2F which is a trial for the Epsom Oaks. Five of the eight hold Oaks entries including the warm favourite here in the Sir Michael Stoute trained Infinite Cosmos who looked a lovely prospect when bolting up in a Newmarket maiden at the Guineas meeting 12 days ago when well backed. This is a step up in grade for her but she should be thereabouts under Ryan Moore.

The form horse is arguably the Karl Burke trained Novakai who brings to the table some smart juvenile form including a 1L second in the Group One Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket last October. A reproduction of that run will put her right in the mix here.

Aidan O’Brien sends over his easy Gowran Park maiden winner Lambada and she’s another who’s hard to assess though as we found out at Chester last week with Savethelastdance she shouldn’t be dismissed lightly.

Jack Channon introduced his Gather Ye Rosebuds at Newbury 26 days ago when she was ultra impressive in spread eagling a field of well bred fillies but the ground was heavy that day and there has to be a doubt whether she can reproduce that on this better ground.

An outsider who shouldn’t be dismissed is the John and Thady Gosden trained Soul Sister. Gosden has won this race four times in the last eight years and although finishing plum last in the Fred Darling at Newbury last month is a lot better than she showed that day with the drying ground much more in her favour. She can be backed small each way (let’s hope all eight run) with the main bet having to be on the Stoute favourite Infinite Cosmos who will be fitter than most and looks the most likeliest winner.

 

INFINITE COSMOS 2 points win @ 13/8 bet365

SOUL SISTER 1/2 point each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 123

 

York 16:10

An interesting fourteen runner class 3 three year olds only 0-95 handicap completes the day’s terrestrial action. It looks an open race with the weights headed by the Kevin Ryan trained Chuzzlewit who is the only one in the field who holds a future group entry, his being in the Irish 2000 Guineas.

Roger Teal’s Caragio is an interesting contender at a price. Making his handicap debut he beat the useful 98 rated Highbank at Leicester last October and was probably undone by the heavy ground in Group company on his only start since in Group 3 company last Autumn.

Archie Watson saddles the prominent Onight who’s been hard to pass when winning his last two starts on the all-weather and with Hollie Doyle on top can run well if handling the turf.

Charlie Johnstone’s Hey Lyla will be fitter than most having won an Ayr maiden at the beginning of the month whilst Roger Varian’s New Endeavour re-appears having been gelded since last seen.

A real minefield of a race where the market will no doubt give us plenty of clues but without them I’ll take a small each way chance with Caragio, a half brother to the connections 2000 Guineas runner up Tip Top Two, who could be well treated on his handicap debut.

 

CARAGIO 1 point each way @ 12/1 BetVictor 12/1 1/5th 1234

 

All odds are accurate at time of writing.

 

 

[richard-westwood]

York 150 

La yakel   9.0 4.9 

Real dream  8.7 6.4 

2 x 10pt wins 

 

[richard-westwood]

225 york 

Badri   8.4 16/1 

Gisburn 8.4 25/1 

Strange one this 🤔....neither is really fancied especially Gisburn who lost his way and performed abysmally lto with no vet explanation but he's looking incredibly well hcapped currently so I'll try a risky 10pt ew on both and shoot for a bumper payout ....ew doubles above 4 too

[calva decoy]

300 York - THE ASTROLOGIST 11/2 Sky Bet ( Free weekly £5 bet ) 

Fancy MAKANAH in 2.25 but run this race 10 times & you'll get 9 different winners & many will see the Wokingham as the main objective where 10+ of these will oppose each other again .

[kensland]

Double.

1.50. York. Sam Cooke            12/1       2nd 

6.40. Bath. Gatilaeus               2/1          1st 

singles & double 

stk. 6.00     rtn. 110.00

Good luck all

Edited May 17, 2023 by kensland

[Villa Chris]

@The Brigadier  The Pink’n also caught my eye when I looked earlier . Money coming in for him too . I’ve also selected Thundering and Bielsa in the lucky 15 thread so here’s hoping .

Edited May 16, 2023 by Villa Chris

[yossa6133]

White Wolf 1:50 York (17/2 Bet Victor). Couple of poor runs in Meydan to forgive (apparently finished lame in one of them), but looks to have bags of ability and I wasn't that impressed by the top two in the market even though La Yakel has been well backed already. Skybet paying 6 places if you're that way inclined.

 

Never landed a blow 🤮

Edited May 17, 2023 by yossa6133

[Villa Chris]

2,05 Newton Abbot  The Pink’n 6/1 

Drops in class and decent run last time out. I’ll kick myself if he wins and I weren’t on. 
 

5 points win 

[kensland]

York. 

Patent. 

2.25. Dakota Gold          15/2   3rd

3.35. Midnight Mile         9/1   unpl

4.10. Ramazan                13/2    3rd

stk 3.50      rtn 443.63.

Good luck all. 

Edited May 17, 2023 by kensland

[kensland]

Bath. 

Single. 

8.45. Brabusach          13/2

stk £2 ew.      rtn 19.60

Good luck all. 

[kensland]

York. 

Patent. 

3.35. Lambada     12/1    unpl

3.00. Creative Force    5/2    unpl

4.45. Kylian                 11/8     unpl

 

 

stk 3.50       rtn.105.81

Good luck all. 

Edited May 17, 2023 by kensland

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

York 5.15

PARIS LIGHTS

[Sporting Sam]

Happy valley 1245

E universe

Travel golf

Both win.

Both went close last run.

 

Trave golf aka eurocrat ex Jessica Harrington won at Naas in September.

[Le Doyen]

Y 1.50 White Wolf   9/1

           Typewriter   50/1

                                                Both 5 Places

[Sporting Sam]

York 1.50

Lucander

Dark Jedi

Both each way

White wolf

Win

Oisin Murphy in the first he has a habit of popping up in the first race at big meetings and I think that has arisen as he bids to emulate his hero Frankie Dettori. He at least tries to get into a place if he cannot get home.

Stall 7 has won this race three times last four years.

Edited May 17, 2023 by sporting sam

[Le Doyen]

43 minutes ago, Le Doyen said:

Y 1.50 White Wolf   9/1

           Typewriter   50/1

                                                Both 5 Places

Typewriter a nice place .... Baldings other horse won it 😀

[Le Doyen]

2.25 Lethal Levi 14/1

        Aleezdancer 25/1

                  Both 6 Plcs

[Villa Chris]

17 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

2,05 Newton Abbot  The Pink’n 6/1 

Drops in class and decent run last time out. I’ll kick myself if he wins and I weren’t on. 
 

5 points win 

Unseated after a blunder at the last. Wouldn’t have reached the winner anyway who won well 

 

 

 

P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 -1.17 

[Villa Chris]

Good day for @The Brigadier and his followers . Winners so far of 5/1 12/1 and 16/1 . Well done chap .

[Sporting Sam]

Brilliant stuff from the brigadier!!

York 4.10

Theme Park

Each way

Carragio

Win

Theme park breed by the queen and gone to unfashionable yard. Close up to silver knott on debut. 

Edited May 17, 2023 by sporting sam

[Sporting Sam]

York 4.40

The draw data says stall 4 has won here for the last two years. Go back even further and stall 4 still averages out as the best place to be.

That stall is occupied by 

Mashadi

Win

The Caribbean

Each way

Mashadi is

The only horse in the race with any experience ridden by one trick jockey Kevin Stott. The horse is owned by AMO Racing who seem to have found the " midas touch" which has been the preserve of Godolphin and Ballydoyle with juveniles. It seems anyone with mountains of cash can adopt similar training methods to reach the top quicker than everyone else.

the Caribbean

For Aidan O'Brien looks interesting on debut 

The winning stall range is 1-5. There is a non runner among those,so a combination trifecta of the remaining 4 low stalls may reap dividends.

The Caribbean

Land lover

Mon na slieve

Mashadi

Combination trifecta 

Edited May 17, 2023 by sporting sam

[roger2256]

What's your p/l with these and in Japan, they seem rather close to the off 

[Sporting Sam]

Hi Roger,

The reason they are close to the off is because the prices don't come up until a few minutes prior to the stalls opening.

You spot a likely winner and the hoped for 7/2 opens up at 1/12. But by the same token an expected 6/1 can open up at 25/1.

There is no profit or loss recorded and I expect to make a loss, but I am getting some nice winners. The harder you look the better results you get.

I've found a couple of angles which are easier to identify than our game.

For example the weights and draw are different. The draw is very easy to understand as they match the horses number.

*

With the uk game 

Not so good. Too many selections!!

But every now and again a nice winner.

UK and Ireland 

Tricasting is where I would like to make inroads and hopefully I'll come up with a couple before too long. Hit the bar earlier with the one trifecta attempt today, getting the winner and runner up.

I'm happy With Two winners today.

Noah Black @ 28/1 at Kawasaki

E. Universe @ 4/1 at Happy Valley

I'd rather actually have two 5/1 winners in England at Bath and Worcester and a trifecta at York.

 

Edited May 17, 2023 by sporting sam

[fd1972uk]

Terrible news a out Creative Force.