harry_rag Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 Anyone know a decent Witch Doctor! aldric and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 15 points on both teams 10+ booking points on S Lisbon v Porto at 1/40 Sky Bet Cup final between these two teams with a bookings expectation of 75 plus, what's not to like. Oh, and even better, Hills aren't offering evens about it. aldric and Torque 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 What those boosted odds show though Harry - and I know you know this - is that even the best bets can lose. All of those Hills evens bets have been worth taking and have been potential 'loss leaders' for Hills, but even so there is still the chance that they lose. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 29, 2023 Author Share Posted January 29, 2023 Bet 20.2: 15 points on Djokovic to win at 1.04 Don't see him losing from 2-0 up. aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Just now, harry_rag said: Bet 20.2: 15 points on Djokovic to win at 1.04 Don't see him losing from 2-0 up. Snap ? harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 29, 2023 Author Share Posted January 29, 2023 Bet 21.3: 15 points on Gakpo to have at least one shot v Brighton at 1/33 with Lads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 30, 2023 Author Share Posted January 30, 2023 Gakpo forgot to pack his shooting boots after having something like 124% of Liverpool's shots in their previous game! Bet 22.1: 15 points on 10+ booking points each team in Gumaraes v Chaves at 1/33 with Sky Bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 1, 2023 Author Share Posted February 1, 2023 Bet 23.2: 15 points on RB Leipzig to score v Hoffenheim at 1/12 with Lads aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 1, 2023 Author Share Posted February 1, 2023 Bet 24.3: 15 points on 1+ card for each team in Maritimo v Porto at 1/20 with Sky Bet Not the perfect scenario of 2 big teams going head to head but a bookings quote of 64-68 and ref who looks "mad for it" will do for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 3, 2023 Author Share Posted February 3, 2023 Bet 25.4: 15 points on Scotland U20 to trail at any time v England U20 at 1/50 with 365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 6:50 PM, harry_rag said: Bet 24.3: 15 points on 1+ card for each team in Maritimo v Porto at 1/20 with Sky Bet Not the perfect scenario of 2 big teams going head to head but a bookings quote of 64-68 and ref who looks "mad for it" will do for me. Where do you get the ref stats from Harry? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 3, 2023 Author Share Posted February 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said: Where do you get the ref stats from Harry? Transfermarket.co.uk is my preferred site for proper analysis (by season/competition etc.). I usually use Soccerbase or Soccerway to find out who the ref is then search for the ref on there. (I suspect if I worked out how to use the site better I could find the fixture and ref appointment on there!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 3, 2023 Author Share Posted February 3, 2023 Bet 26.5: 10 points on >0.5 goals in Everton v Arsenal at evens with Hills alexcaruso808 and aldric 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 4, 2023 Author Share Posted February 4, 2023 Bet 27.6: 15 points on neither team to win to nil in Wales v Ireland at 1/80 with 365 alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 5, 2023 Author Share Posted February 5, 2023 Bet 28.7: 15 points on France to have the highest scoring half v Italy at 1/10 with 365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 5, 2023 Author Share Posted February 5, 2023 Bet 29.8: 30 points on 20+ bookings points in Porto v Vizela at 1/50 with Sky Bet Odds went in from 1/40 as I was placing the bet so I decided to double down on stake! Not really; app was playing up and ended up putting bet on twice. Going all devil may care and letting both bets stand for thread purposes. Spreads at 60-64, ref yet to go below 40 in 8 games this season. Yet to go below 20 after 34 top flight appointments (has hit that number 3 times). 30+ points is (a risible) 1/200 with Paddy Poor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 6, 2023 Author Share Posted February 6, 2023 23 winners from 29 bets so far (2 from 6 "Epic Odds" selections and 21 from 23 "regular" bets). 29.84 points down overall, 20 from "Epic Odds" and 9.84 from the rest. Assuming the offer carries on the "Epic Odds" bets should take care of themselves over time (taking even money about genuine odds on shots should be profitable in the long term). Whilst it's easy to accept winning bets as a right at short odds and to rationalise the occasional loser, I'm reassured to note that the 2 losing "regular" bets are on one-off markets rather than any of what I would regard as being core markets. They were Gakpo to have a shot and Arsenal to score by the 60th minute. aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 6, 2023 Author Share Posted February 6, 2023 15 points on >0.5 goals in Verona v Lazio at 1.1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 10, 2023 Author Share Posted February 10, 2023 Bet 31.10: 15 points on Italy U20 to score 10+ points and to trail at anytime v England U20 at 1/6 with 365 Used a bet builder here so into unchartered waters. Was considering the individual components at 1/14 and 1/16, considered doing both, noticed the BB option and decided to go for it. I have Italy only failing to score 10+ in 2 of their last 23 6 Nations games, one of which was a 6-0 home win over England! Given the belief that they're improving I fancy an England win but perhaps by less than the handicap with Italy getting into double figures. Let's see how it all pans out, preferably with both components in by half time! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 11, 2023 Author Share Posted February 11, 2023 Bet 32.11: 12.5 points on Ireland to score 10+ points and neither team to win to nil (v France) at 1/18 with 365 Trying another bet builder on a couple of eventualities that strike me as extremely likely. Given how "high" the price is would you believe my stakes were limited from £15 to £12.50! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 11, 2023 Author Share Posted February 11, 2023 Ireland 7-3 up after 9 minutes so I think the above is home and hosed! Bet 33.12: 15 points on B Munich to score v Bochum at 1/50 with Hills Would've liked a bit more but don't see Bayern being shut out here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 11, 2023 Author Share Posted February 11, 2023 Bet 34.13: 15 points on Real Madrid to score v Al Hilal at 1/20 with 365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 Bets 35.14 and 36.15: 15 points on England highest scoring half at 1/10 with 365 and 12.5 on England 20+ points and Italy to trail at anytime at 1/16 with 365 The 1/10 would have to be the nap here if you forced me to pick one but I don't see the other eventualities failing. There was no value in adding the first bet into the bet builder with the other two so I've gone down the double jeopardy route. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 Bet 37.16: 15 points on each team >1 card in Sporting v Porto at 1/6 with Hills The bookings expectation is in the high 80s for this game! I can't say it's a certainty (if one team takes a 2 goal lead too early it won't look so clever) but I think the odds are generous enough (it's 6/1 for it not to happen elsewhere so a 100% book). Ref has shown 5 or 4 cards on the 5 occasions he's handled this fixture but his overall stats are encouraging enough as are his figures when handling other "big 3" games (these 2 against Benfica). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 13, 2023 Author Share Posted February 13, 2023 4 cards for Porto but only one for Sporting. At least looking at the market lead me to the winning bet on 4-6 cards at 13/5 though it would've been nice to land both! So ends a run of 15 winning bets but at least I wasn't rolling the stake over. 30 winners from 37 bets so far. 36.84 points down overall. I did back the winning Epic Odds selection at evens this week (1st half goal in West Ham v Chelsea) but no regrets about not including it in here. Hills had it as boosted from 4/11 but it was 1.6 or more on BF. A value bet but too much risk of it losing for inclusion in a short priced thread like this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 13, 2023 Author Share Posted February 13, 2023 Bet 38.1: 15 points on >1 card shown in Liverpool v Everton at 1/16 with 365 1/5 for each team shown a card seems fair enough but I'll play a little safer and just shoot for at least 2 in total. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 14, 2023 Author Share Posted February 14, 2023 Bet 39.2: 15 points on >1 card in each of today's 2 CL games at 1.092 with 365 I don't see either ref not reaching into his pocket on at least a couple of occasions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 15, 2023 Author Share Posted February 15, 2023 Bets 40.3 and 41.4: 15 points on >1 card in each of the games at Arsenal and Club Brugge at 1.092 with 365 On both of these for >0 cards in the "dodging bullets" thread, playing the >1 cards double as seemingly value angle. 8* points on >1 card in R Madrid v Elche and >0 cards in Dortmund v Chelsea at 1.084 with 365 The ref in the Spanish game looks solid for 4-6 cards bets; not expecting fireworks here but 2+ cards works as a value angle. Least appealing ref of the night in the Chelsea game but I can't seem him not flashing a single card tonight, even if I'd be wary of betting too high an overs line. * Not sure why stake so limited on this one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 16, 2023 Author Share Posted February 16, 2023 Not as inspiring tonight in terms of the ref appointments (none I'm willing to risk "dodging a bullet" on) but I've found 3 doubles I'm willing to risk as a value proposition, all >1 card shown. A bit poor I can't get my desired £15 on at these odds though. Bets 42.5 to 44.6: 6.25 points in the games at Braga and Lazio at 1.0656 10 points in the games at Barcelona and Sevilla at 1.092 6 points on the games at Juventus and Leverkusen at 1.16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 17, 2023 Author Share Posted February 17, 2023 Bet 45.8: 15 points on both teams to receive a card in Sassuolo v Napoli at 1/8 with 365 Must be the first time I've taken a bet like this despite it losing in the last 2 meetings between the teams (both 3 cards for Sassuolo and none for Napoli) but I'm inclined to dismiss that as a blip. At 1/33 for >1 card and 1/8 for at least one for each time I'm swayed by the argument that the selection is the better value bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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