2023 Short Priced Selections

[harry_rag]

Tried my over-elaborate "juggernaut" staking plan, tried the more viable double-up approach, going to go for a simpler % of bank staking plan.

500 points starting bank and suggested stake will be 3% of bank (so 15 points/pounds to start). Actual stake may vary due to rounding up or down or limits applying to that bet.

The double up era bets did show a profit to level stakes; see how this goes.

[Torque]

It might be an idea to track a loss recovery staking plan also - i.e. staking to your bank high regardless of current bank until the bank decreases by a quarter when you'd recalculate, something like that. It shouldn't be too risky at short odds.

[harry_rag]

Bet 1.1: 15 points on Connacht to trail at any time v Leinster at 1/25 with 365

(Numbering will reflect total bets and current winning streak so 18.5 would mean the 18th bet in the thread and that it would be a 5th consecutive winner.)

[harry_rag]

Bet 2.2: 10 points on at least one card in the 1st half of Rangers v Celtic at evens with Hills

Definitely an odds on shot if not the 1/10 stated by Hills. Might as well carry on using these "Epic Odds" type offers to try and keep things ticking over.

[harry_rag]

Bet 3.1: 15 points on Sheffield U +3 v QPR at 1.03

[harry_rag]

Bet 3.2: 15 points on Roma +2 v Bologna at 1.05

[harry_rag]

Bet 5.3 (last one should’ve been 4.2): 10 points on Leicester to score a 1st half goal v Gillingham at evens with Hills

Not as “epic odds” as the Old Firm cards bet (which lost) but still value. Let’s see if it can recoup the loss!

[harry_rag]

Going well with these "epic" value even money shots! 

Bet 6.1: 15 points on Zebre to trail at anytime v Edinburgh at 1/33 with 365

[harry_rag]

Bet 7.2: 15 points on each team 20+ booking points in Fenerbahce v Galatasaray at 1/7 with Sky Bet

[harry_rag]

5-2 so far with the 2 losses being 10 points each on the Hills "Epic Odds" offers. At least the stake limit reduced the loss!

15.63 points down so far.

[alexcaruso808]

I'm sure you will come back Harry.  

[harry_rag]

5 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

I'm sure you will come back Harry.  

Couple of "Epic Odds" winners and I'm back in front. 

[harry_rag]

Bet 8.3: 15 points on time of 1st Arsenal goal v Oxford to be up to and including the 60th minute at 1/8 with Hills

Most appealing way I've found to back the opinion that this Arsenal line up won't take too long to find the net.

[harry_rag]

Bet 9.1: 10 points on >0.5 goals in Man U  v Man C at evens with Hills

In Epic Odds we trust! 

Gone 0-2 with these so far but it would be foolish not to take even money about something that's 1.06 on BF. 

[aldric]

Surely this time! 👍

[harry_rag]

Bet 10.2: 15 points on >1 card for both teams in Benfica v Sporting at 1/5 with Hills

[harry_rag]

7-3 and 17.63 points down so far

Only a 2 point loss for a 2-1 week so not too bad!

[harry_rag]

On 1/15/2023 at 5:08 PM, harry_rag said:

Bet 10.2: 15 points on >1 card for both teams in Benfica v Sporting at 1/5 with Hills

11.3 is same bet in Estoril v Casa Pia at 1/4

[harry_rag]

Wow, thought that had lost based on following it on SX, they had the hosts only getting one card. Hills have settled it as a winner though and Flashscore show them getting a couple. A nice surprise in the absence of a retrospective adjustment.

[harry_rag]

Bet 12.4: 15 points on >0.5 goals in West Brom v Chesterfield at 1.06

[harry_rag]

Bet 13.5: 15 points on Zebre tp trail at anytime v Toulon at 1/50 with 365

[harry_rag]

Bet 13.6: 15 points on both teams shown a card in S Lisbon v Vizela at 1/33 with Hills

Be a first for either team this season if this were not to land and the ref is particularly card happy of late.

I've also backed a card in the first 15 minutes at 3/1 (obviously not for the purposes of this thread).

[harry_rag]

Phew, 1st card didn’t arrive until we were just about entering the LAST 15 minutes and the “money” card came in added time.

[harry_rag]

Bet 14.7: 10 points on Salah SoT v Chelsea at evens with Hills

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Bet 14.7: 10 points on Salah SoT v Chelsea at evens with Hills

 Epic sods more like!

[harry_rag]

Bet 15.1: 15 points on Leinster highest scoring half v Racing 92 at 1/12 with 365

There are safer options (1/40 for them to lead at anytime) but this stands out as the value pick for me.

[harry_rag]

Numbering went awry with 2 number 13s; last bet was actually 16.1.

Record is 12-4 so far and -20.99 points with an ROI of -9.54%.

Most of that loss (20 points) is down to being 1-3 on those effing Epic Odds bets! 

[harry_rag]

Bet 16.2: 15 points on PSG +3 v Pays de Cassel at 1.01

Matched in running. Don’t normally do 1.01 shots in this thread but I’ll make an exception for certainties! 

[harry_rag]

Bet 18.3: 10 points on a 1st half goal in Man City v Arsenal at evens with Hills

Shrugging off the irrational notion that these "Epic Odds" bets are cursed I'm going to the well yet again! Whilst Hills might be pushing it to say this has been boosted from 1/4 it's still a sub 1.5 shot on the exchange and I'm happy enough that it's a value bet. You have to go back 14 games to find a goalless 1st half in a meeting between these two teams. The last one was in 2017, in an FA Cup tie! 

[alexcaruso808]

Harry, why haven't they scored yet?  I am not liking this.