harry_rag Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 Bet 73.21: 15 points on 30+ booking points in Hibs v Rangers at 1/6 with Sky Bet Everything generally favourable for this bet though the ref has a marked tendency for showing more cards in games involving Rangers than he does for those involving Celtic. Possibly random; as this game doesn't involve Celtic I won't worry about it too much! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 A pointed reminder of how brutal this lark can be; a 19 bet winning streak brought to an end by 2 losers on the same night. Anyone who backed both of those games to go <30 points would have had a decent double up. aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 11, 2023 Author Share Posted March 11, 2023 Bet 74.1: 15 points on Italy +17.5 points at 1/16 with Uni Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 11, 2023 Author Share Posted March 11, 2023 Bet 75.2: 15 points on Ramos to score 9+ points in England v France at 8/15 with Sky Bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 11, 2023 Author Share Posted March 11, 2023 10-0 to Ramos after 7 minutes (as I obviously fully expected)! aldric and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 Bets 76.3 and 77.4 (both in Scotland v Ireland and with Sky Bet): 15 points each on Ireland to score a 1st half try at 1/6 and Russell to score 6+ points at 8/15 Not expecting Russell to "do a Ramos" but should cover that line even allowing for the quality of the opponents. Ireland have scored a try in the first 10 minutes in 9 of their last 10 6 Nations games. I fancy them to have at least one before the break in this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 8-3 this week so the time spent in the black was frustratingly brief. 65 winners from 77 bets so far. 27.28 points down overall with an ROI of -2.52% 5-4 on the even money "Epic Odds" bets so 10 points up on them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 14, 2023 Author Share Posted March 14, 2023 Bet 78.1: 10 points on Constitution Hill to win the Champion Hurdle at evens with Hills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Wow, was 1.38 on betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 14, 2023 Author Share Posted March 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, aldric said: Wow, was 1.38 on betfair. It was their "Epic Odds" offer; usually footy at weekend but they've had that up for a few days now, usual tenner max stake. aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 15, 2023 Author Share Posted March 15, 2023 Bet 79.2: 15 points on >0 cards in both of tonight's Champions League games at 1.045 with 365 Both these games could be all over sooner rather than later depending on who opens the scoring so any ambitious high card bets would be risky but I don't see either passing without a single card shown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 17, 2023 Author Share Posted March 17, 2023 Bet 80.1: 15 points on Hull to trail at anytime v St Helens at 1/25 with 365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 18, 2023 Author Share Posted March 18, 2023 Bet 80.2: 15 points on Italy to trail at anytime v Scotland at 1/40 with 365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 18, 2023 Author Share Posted March 18, 2023 Bets 81.3 and 82.4: 15 points each on France to have the highest scoring half v Wales at 1/9 with 365 and France to score 1+ tries in each half at 1/10 with Sky Bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 19, 2023 Author Share Posted March 19, 2023 Bet 84.1: 15 points on Wakefield to trail at anytime v Salford at 1/25 with 365 France won the first half 20-7 but it was 21 points each in the second half! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 25 minutes ago, harry_rag said: France won the first half 20-7 but it was 21 points each in the second half! 1/9 doesn’t sound like great odds is that the norm for bet like that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 19, 2023 Author Share Posted March 19, 2023 15 minutes ago, JdsGooner90 said: 1/9 doesn’t sound like great odds is that the norm for bet like that? Fairly typical where one team is quite a big favourite. I was 5-0 on that particular bet until yesterday so I guess it looks less rosey than it did before yesterday's game. It's my feeling that some of the short priced outcomes where teams are big favourites are still generously priced. When you look how short a team can be to win either half the price for them to be highest scorer in either half has tended to strike me as generous. Probably worth a bit of further study on that point! Obviously a team can't win a game without winning at least one half but it is possible for them to win without having the highest scoring half. How that should be reflected in the prices is obviously the key point. Out of interest, what do you think of the sort of prices I've taken on the teams to trail at anytime bets or that 1/10 for France to score a try in both halves? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 (edited) 53 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Out of interest, what do you think of the sort of prices I've taken on the teams to trail at anytime bets or that 1/10 for France to score a try in both halves? Not too bad to be honest Scotland to lead at 1/40 was always going to happen so not bad odds for an almost sure thing. Edited March 19, 2023 by JdsGooner90 harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 19, 2023 Author Share Posted March 19, 2023 6 minutes ago, JdsGooner90 said: Not too bad to be honest Scotland to lead at 1/40 was always going to happen so not bad odds for an almost sure thing. Still unbeaten on that bet (today's in after 6 minutes) but hardly conclusive given the small sample and short prices. Thread overall not doing so well though! Tomorrow's update won't be great. Might be worth taking a closer look at the stats for the team to trail market. It's certainly nice when the bet's done with nice and early! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 20, 2023 Author Share Posted March 20, 2023 5-2 this week. 70 winners from 84 bets so far. 44.04 points down overall with an ROI of -3.73% Pretty poor and only leaning one way if this thread is supposed to be a "proof of concept"! Resisting the temptation to knock it on the head just yet and girding my loins for another attempt to recover from a similar deficit (I ended January over 44 points down and was 6 points up by 7th March) here's a breakdown of the different bet types. Epic Odds: 6-4 and 20 points up on these, all at evens, Don't need much thought really as they'll take care of themselves (I'm only posting these where the best available odds are no more than 1.5). Bookings bets: 29-5 and 29.38 points down. Lost the last 3, would have still been slightly in front at 29-3. I think I'm chasing too many of these bets having originally only considered games with an unusually high bookings expectation. Back to only looking at games where the spreads edge into the 60s. Rugby bets (both codes): 25-2 and 3.18 points up. Overall I'm confident that there are certain markets that are generously priced in games with a strong favourite so it's pretty much carry on and see how it goes. One of the losers was on a player points bet at bigger than usual odds (after winning on Ramos 9+ points I lost on Russell 6+). I should probably have taken the money and run after the first bet rather than pressing with the second but I'll avoid straying off-piste from now on. The other loser was France to have the highest scoring half. Whilst I'm not inclined to write that bet off altogether it's worth remembering that a team can still win by a decent margin without having the highest scoring half. >0.5 team/match goals: 5-2 and 25.35 points down. Not a market I favour (less than 10% of all bets) so will just carry on betting by exception. One of the losers was Arsenal to score by the 60th minute in a game where they scored 3 goals but all after the hour mark. Not so much bemoaning the bad luck on that one as heeding the lesson about over complicating the bet to try and tease the odds out a bit. Handicap bets: 4-0 and 1.92 points up. As per the goals bets really, just carry on where a bet really stands out but not one of the main markets. Others: Not much to read into 1 winning tennis bet and one losing "player to have a shot" bet. Will generally avoid player prop bets and only bet on other sports very occasionally. So a few things to take on board but basically carry on with a bit more patience and quality control! aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 26, 2023 Author Share Posted March 26, 2023 Bet 85.3: 17 points on France (W) to score 3 unanswered tries v Italy (W) at 4/11 and 1/3 (equally split) with 365 @JdsGooner90 be interested on your take on those odds (though not assuming a huge familiarity with Women's rugby)! My take is that the price seems very generous with France far superior and around 30 point favourites for the game. Seems to land pretty much whenever Italy come up against the big 2 (France and England). I can't see France to reach 20 points losing at 1/20 but, given the respective odds, this feels like a good bet even though it's at an inbetween sort of a price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted March 26, 2023 Share Posted March 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Bet 85.3: 17 points on France (W) to score 3 unanswered tries v Italy (W) at 4/11 and 1/3 (equally split) with 365 @JdsGooner90 be interested on your take on those odds (though not assuming a huge familiarity with Women's rugby)! My take is that the price seems very generous with France far superior and around 30 point favourites for the game. Seems to land pretty much whenever Italy come up against the big 2 (France and England). I can't see France to reach 20 points losing at 1/20 but, given the respective odds, this feels like a good bet even though it's at an inbetween sort of a price. Have no interest at all in women rugby but odds look good to me considering France are 1/100 to win the match! harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 26, 2023 Author Share Posted March 26, 2023 Have we not got a blows own brains out or hangs oneself icon? France only win 22-12, their 3 tries coming with one of Italy's 2 in amongst them. I think it may be time for me to knock this thread on the head. As "proof of concept" the current verdict would be I can't make a profit with these bets. Even if I could make a slight profit it wouldn't really be worth the time and effort. I'm not going to make a worthwhile profit at the current staking level and all the evidence suggests I'm not far short of hitting stake limits with some of the firms. There are far easier ways to make money betting and less frustrating ways to lose it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted March 26, 2023 Share Posted March 26, 2023 Maybe the odds were not that good after all France to win @ 1/100 the score should have been a lot bigger than that! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 27, 2023 Author Share Posted March 27, 2023 19 hours ago, JdsGooner90 said: Maybe the odds were not that good after all France to win @ 1/100 the score should have been a lot bigger than that! Well, the outcome of a single bet doesn't prove whether it was value or not, win or lose but the overall record so far certainly suggests I'm struggling to find value generally. Just the one losing bet this week. 70 winners from 85 bets so far. 61.04 points down overall with an ROI of -5.09% I'm close to calling time on the thread but I'll set an initial recovery target; get back to less than 50 points down without hitting another losing bet (not counting the "Epic Odds" bets where the value isn't in doubt). Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 30, 2023 Author Share Posted March 30, 2023 Bet 86.1: 15 points on neither team to score 0 points on Leigh v Wigan at 1/50 with 365 Leigh to give a reasonable account of themselves here (seen a tip for them with a +8 start). I don't see either team being shut out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 1, 2023 Author Share Posted April 1, 2023 Bet 87.2: 10 points on >1.5 goals in Man City v Liverpool at evens with Hills alexcaruso808 and aldric 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 1, 2023 Author Share Posted April 1, 2023 On 3/26/2023 at 6:45 PM, JdsGooner90 said: Maybe the odds were not that good after all France to win @ 1/100 the score should have been a lot bigger than that! They've just won 53-3 away to Ireland despite getting a 21st minute red card, 9 tries to 0! I think it's fair to say I picked the wrong week to back them, whether they had an off week or Italy deserved the credit for avoiding the expected battering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 3, 2023 Author Share Posted April 3, 2023 Just 2 from 2 this week, one of those an even money "Epic Odds" job. 72 winners from 87 bets so far. 50.74 points down overall with an ROI of -4.15% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 5, 2023 Author Share Posted April 5, 2023 Bet 88.3: 15 points on R Madrid to receive >0.5 cards v Barcelona at 1/50 with 365 Both teams at 1/20 looks decent enough but if Barcelona (1-0 up from 1st leg) take the lead it could affect the chances. Hard to see the team that trails and is away from home not picking up a single card when these two meet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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