Racing Chat - Friday 30th September.

[kensland]

Double 

12.20. Saint Cloud. Captain Wierzba.     6/1 ... unpl             Ralph Becketts runner... Jockey elbowed off by fellow jockey. 

2.35. Ascot. Gumball.           4/1... 2nd            Fegal O'brien only runner, with my favourite jockey  on board. 

singles & double 

Good luck all. 

Edited September 30, 2022 by kensland

[kensland]

Ascot 

Ralph Becketts runners. 

Single. 

3.45. Thanks Monica.        22/1.    trainer won this race in    2016. /. 2019 /. 2021... Not this year. 

Double. 

3.10. Self Inflicted Sid.              12/1... unpl 

4.55. Bullace.            17/2..... unpl 

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited September 30, 2022 by kensland

[Darran]

Beneficio is back out tomorrow and for once it is at a watchable time, 11.45am. She goes in race 8 at Moonee Valley and here is my preview.

Squizzy Mizzy - Finally managed to win above BM58 level last time at Mornington when winning on a Heavy 9 track. She looks likely to try and help set the pace alongside Beneficio although I am not sure she had quite the same ability as she does, but she does have an inside berth. Also she isn't always quick away so Beneficio might be able to get across before she shows her early speed.

 

Viviane - The short price favourite based on her 2^nd to a horse who was landing a hat-trick last time at Sandown. They pulled clear of the rest so it looks like it is good form although nothing really came from behind so it could have been an advantage being on the pace. She had landed a hat-trick prior to that winning her maiden and then a BM64 at Sandown last year and winning 1^st up at Sale at the start of this month. Last year she had been settling just off the speed, but she has been more prominent on the 2 starts this year and has a good draw in 4 to take advantage of her speed. One for the shortlist.

 

Mouse Almighty - Is her trainer's first ever runner in Melbourne being based in NSW at Wagga Wagga and she was a winner on her home track in a Heavy 10 a couple of weeks. She does seem better on a wet track and is way more exposed compared to the leading fancies here who have plenty of potential progression to come.

 

Tycoon Humma - Was only 7^th behind Viviane at Sandown last time although as I pointed out above it did look to be an advantage to be on the speed. She ran well here in March over 955m when she had a bad draw and finished 4^th and has had to face some tougher tasks than this. Did finish 2^nd in front of Beneficio at Sandown in May although she had the advantage of being in the middle of the track and whilst she is capable of hitting the frame, I am not sure she will have enough to win. For me Beneficio can reverse the form.

 

Beneficio - As much as the Ballarat race wasn't a strong one she could hardly have been more impressive in the style of victory. She powered away from them in the straight without the jockey having to make an effort and he got off and said she had done it with plenty left in the tank. He also added that Moonee Valley should be ideal for her giving her running style and that she could be up to getting some black type at some point. The 2^nd at Caulfield on her last prep is arguably the best form in the race so I think she has a very good chance again. Her 2 runs over 1000m so far have been disappointing on the face of it, but I suspect the first one she was over the top and at Sandown she was on the wrong part of the track and came back with an injury so I can forgive both. 1000m should in theory be her ideal trip in my view. The draw hasn't been ideal, but I am hopeful at the very least with her early speed that she can get across and be no more than 1 off the rail. 

 

Donna Natalina - Disappointing at Sale last time when didn't pick up at all although I suspect she is capable of better than that having been a good 2^nd at Mildura first up. Steps up to metro level here though and would be a bit of a surprise if she was up to it.

 

Hypothetical - Only had the 3 starts to date and followed a 2^nd first up at Mornington by winning at Sandown in July. A month later she won at Sale in a BM64 and did it quite nicely given she looked like she was still learning. Her first two races were over 1200m and the last one was over 1106m so does drop down in trip again which is a slight concern especially round this sharp track. She won a jump out last week though so is still ticking over nicely. She clearly has a nice profile but as well as the trip doubt she has a horrid draw as she is on the outside and the combination might well be enough to see her run well in defeat rather than win.

 

Jillette - Likes Caulfield having run well there in December and January winning 1 and finishing 2^nd and 3rd. The concern here though is she has not run well on her first two runs back and was just 10^th in the Viviane race last time. 

 

Rose Tycoon - Gets a run if she wants one with the 3 non-runners above her. She had a bad draw at Sandown last time, but flew home to finish 3^rd and was 3L behind Viviane who was 2nd. As I mention above it seemed to be better on the speed in that race and she was the only one to be finishing strongly and had to go much wider than the first two. That suggests that she could be up to this grade having won a BM58 at Ballarat last month. Now she doesn't have a great draw here either in 11, but to my eye if she didn't have to go so wide at Sandown she would have been much closer and possibly would have finished in front of her. If there is one horse in the race that is really over-priced it is her and I think the draw is factored into the price.

 

Onika - Also gets a run if she wants it. Impressively won a maiden at Bendigo in February and then ran 4^th in her first handicap the next month at Sandown. Was last of 7 a couple of weeks after that though and I suspect she may need a bit longer to get up to this sort of grade.

 

Verdict - Not a bad little race as you would expect for the grade and I do think Beneficio is over-priced. I think at worse she will be 1 off the rail due to her early speed and I think she will be hard to run down over this trip. The Caulfield 2^nd shows how good she is and I everything points to the fact that she is still improving based on the win a couple of weeks ago. Clearly the favourite has a chance, but Viviane looks very short to me at evens and I would much rather back Rose Tycoon at double figure odds to over turn the form. Yes she has a bad draw again, but I loved the way she was finding the line at Sandown and if she gets some luck in running she might be the main danger to Beneficio. Hypothetical is an obvious danger as well and Tycoon Humma also has place claims.

 

Beneficio e/w @ 11/2 with Bet365, Coral and Ladbrokes

Rose Tycoon e/w @ 14/1 with everyone

[richard-westwood]

Ascot 455 

Bullace  8.2 9/1 

Persian Royal 8.1  11/2 

These 2 are clear of rest so ew value to take the fav on ....I'll try 5pt ew both 

Edited September 29, 2022 by richard-westwood

[DanV89]

11 hours ago, Darran said:

Beneficio is back out tomorrow and for once it is at a watchable time, 11.45am. She goes in race 8 at Moonee Valley and here is my preview.

Squizzy Mizzy - Finally managed to win above BM58 level last time at Mornington when winning on a Heavy 9 track. She looks likely to try and help set the pace alongside Beneficio although I am not sure she had quite the same ability as she does, but she does have an inside berth. Also she isn't always quick away so Beneficio might be able to get across before she shows her early speed.

 

Viviane - The short price favourite based on her 2^nd to a horse who was landing a hat-trick last time at Sandown. They pulled clear of the rest so it looks like it is good form although nothing really came from behind so it could have been an advantage being on the pace. She had landed a hat-trick prior to that winning her maiden and then a BM64 at Sandown last year and winning 1^st up at Sale at the start of this month. Last year she had been settling just off the speed, but she has been more prominent on the 2 starts this year and has a good draw in 4 to take advantage of her speed. One for the shortlist.

 

Mouse Almighty - Is her trainer's first ever runner in Melbourne being based in NSW at Wagga Wagga and she was a winner on her home track in a Heavy 10 a couple of weeks. She does seem better on a wet track and is way more exposed compared to the leading fancies here who have plenty of potential progression to come.

 

Tycoon Humma - Was only 7^th behind Viviane at Sandown last time although as I pointed out above it did look to be an advantage to be on the speed. She ran well here in March over 955m when she had a bad draw and finished 4^th and has had to face some tougher tasks than this. Did finish 2^nd in front of Beneficio at Sandown in May although she had the advantage of being in the middle of the track and whilst she is capable of hitting the frame, I am not sure she will have enough to win. For me Beneficio can reverse the form.

 

Beneficio - As much as the Ballarat race wasn't a strong one she could hardly have been more impressive in the style of victory. She powered away from them in the straight without the jockey having to make an effort and he got off and said she had done it with plenty left in the tank. He also added that Moonee Valley should be ideal for her giving her running style and that she could be up to getting some black type at some point. The 2^nd at Caulfield on her last prep is arguably the best form in the race so I think she has a very good chance again. Her 2 runs over 1000m so far have been disappointing on the face of it, but I suspect the first one she was over the top and at Sandown she was on the wrong part of the track and came back with an injury so I can forgive both. 1000m should in theory be her ideal trip in my view. The draw hasn't been ideal, but I am hopeful at the very least with her early speed that she can get across and be no more than 1 off the rail. 

 

Donna Natalina - Disappointing at Sale last time when didn't pick up at all although I suspect she is capable of better than that having been a good 2^nd at Mildura first up. Steps up to metro level here though and would be a bit of a surprise if she was up to it.

 

Hypothetical - Only had the 3 starts to date and followed a 2^nd first up at Mornington by winning at Sandown in July. A month later she won at Sale in a BM64 and did it quite nicely given she looked like she was still learning. Her first two races were over 1200m and the last one was over 1106m so does drop down in trip again which is a slight concern especially round this sharp track. She won a jump out last week though so is still ticking over nicely. She clearly has a nice profile but as well as the trip doubt she has a horrid draw as she is on the outside and the combination might well be enough to see her run well in defeat rather than win.

 

Jillette - Likes Caulfield having run well there in December and January winning 1 and finishing 2^nd and 3rd. The concern here though is she has not run well on her first two runs back and was just 10^th in the Viviane race last time. 

 

Rose Tycoon - Gets a run if she wants one with the 3 non-runners above her. She had a bad draw at Sandown last time, but flew home to finish 3^rd and was 3L behind Viviane who was 2nd. As I mention above it seemed to be better on the speed in that race and she was the only one to be finishing strongly and had to go much wider than the first two. That suggests that she could be up to this grade having won a BM58 at Ballarat last month. Now she doesn't have a great draw here either in 11, but to my eye if she didn't have to go so wide at Sandown she would have been much closer and possibly would have finished in front of her. If there is one horse in the race that is really over-priced it is her and I think the draw is factored into the price.

 

Onika - Also gets a run if she wants it. Impressively won a maiden at Bendigo in February and then ran 4^th in her first handicap the next month at Sandown. Was last of 7 a couple of weeks after that though and I suspect she may need a bit longer to get up to this sort of grade.

 

Verdict - Not a bad little race as you would expect for the grade and I do think Beneficio is over-priced. I think at worse she will be 1 off the rail due to her early speed and I think she will be hard to run down over this trip. The Caulfield 2^nd shows how good she is and I everything points to the fact that she is still improving based on the win a couple of weeks ago. Clearly the favourite has a chance, but Viviane looks very short to me at evens and I would much rather back Rose Tycoon at double figure odds to over turn the form. Yes she has a bad draw again, but I loved the way she was finding the line at Sandown and if she gets some luck in running she might be the main danger to Beneficio. Hypothetical is an obvious danger as well and Tycoon Humma also has place claims.

 

Beneficio e/w @ 11/2 with Bet365, Coral and Ladbrokes

Rose Tycoon e/w @ 14/1 with everyone

Good luck Darran - do you know where it will be shown?

[Tedthewolf]

13 minutes ago, DanV89 said:

Good luck Darran - do you know where it will be shown?

If you do a bet with your bookie online you can watch it there also  you can here it free on tab radio online.

[Tedthewolf]

2.00 Ascot i  am having a bet o 16/1 shot STONE SOLDIER who is a very decent AW horse  but some  good turf form also so in a wide open contest happy to part with  some of my hard earned cash on a horse that looks overpriced to me e/w 4 places bog .

[Darran]

2 hours ago, DanV89 said:

Good luck Darran - do you know where it will be shown?

You can watch it on Racing.com just need to sign up for a free account.

[azzybear]

continius 12.20 don't think  aiden o brain as sent this horse to France for no reason 

[azzybear]

minnela voucher 1.40 

[azzybear]

pocket the profit 2.00

[black rabbit]

Able Kane   2 00 ASC/     1/20th of a pt  win    16/1

Raising Sand  4 55 ASC/  1//20th of a pt win   16/1

James Watt    8 15 NEW/   1/20th of a pt win    22/1

 

 

 

Edited September 30, 2022 by black rabbit

[black rabbit]

1 hour ago, Tedthewolf said:

2.00 Ascot i  am having a bet o 16/1 shot STONE SOLDIER who is a very decent AW horse  but some  good turf form also so in a wide open contest happy to part with  some of my hard earned cash on a horse that looks overpriced to me e/w 4 places bog .

had a "saver" on yours ted  { always do }

[Darran]

Disappointing from Beneficio but she couldn’t get across as so many wanted to lead because there had been a big leaders bias on the card. Jockey decided to then sit her in behind and she didn’t pick up in the straight and only ended up beating the odds on favourite home. I suspect that she just has one speed and whilst that is fast I don’t think she can quicken at all so if you slow her down she doesn’t have a turn of foot. Also you have to begin to wonder if 1000m isn’t her trip despite it looking like it will be ideal for her. Rose Tycoon ran a huge race to finish 3rd and she will win once she gets better kick draw wise. The winner was the horse from Wagga and maybe I should have taken the hint that they were sending her all this way for the race.

[Sporting Sam]

Gowran park two maiden hurdles.

Division 1

1335

SINGLE EDITION 

Win @ 7/2

division 2 at 1407

SAYLAVEE 

win

both of these races have loosely inter connected form, given that Single Edition beat Champella in a bumper and Champella was not far behind saylavee next in another bumper before going on to win a maiden hurdle. SAYLAVEE looks up to winning on hurdles bow.  The mediator looks the main threat.

 

[The Equaliser]

I feel a bit lost without the PL Napsters posting today

Here goes for the multiple

(B) 2.35 Asc Aggagio ** 15/8 @The Brigadier

(C) 3.45 Asc Giavellotto ** 11/4 @The Brigadier

(D) 4.20 Asc Lethal Nymph ** 7/2 @The Brigadier

(A) 3.35 Hex Captain Tom Cat 11/4@Tumbleweed King

(E) 4.00 Font The Golden Rebel  15/8 @The Brigadier

A - E 4 x 1.50 win doubles at 1.50 = poss return 77.04 & BCD 1 x 1 pt win treble poss return 48.51 = Total stakes 7 points

Back soon with some singles and savers

2.00 Asc Pocket The Profit 1 pt win at 6.00 @The Brigadierand Stone Soldier 0.60 ew at 12/1 @Tedthewolf plus Able Kane 0.60 ew at 14/1 @black rabbit

4.55 Asc Persian Royal 0.60 ew at 6/1 and Bullace 0.60 ew at 9/1 both @richard-westwood+ 1.30 Yantarni at 2.98 @The BrigadierNap

Total spend so far 14.10

No luck and only one double left with The Golden Rebel and Lethal Nymph.  I will place a saver bet on Silent Speech in the 4.20 at Ascot; 2 pts at 5.1 um at 4.9

Total stakes 16.10 today

A complete blank so far today as my last double fails.

I have placed 5 points to win on Lethal Lymph at 4.5 for 20.19 return. 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lethal Nympth saved the day for me.  Together with a small place return my profit was 1.41 points.  This made my MTD +122.59 which was a very good month for me.  My YTD stands at -173.98 so still a lot to do to eliminate the deficit by the end of the year.

Tons of class racing later , hopefully I can stick to class3 and higher races

Edited September 30, 2022 by The Equaliser
RESULT UPDATE

[The Scientist]

Newcastle 

5.15 fortuitous star

5.45 wasdale

7 15 caragat

8.15 Triple Jaye

Ew acca.

All a bit short prices for me  but good favourites 

 

 

[Bronxie]

4 hours ago, black rabbit said:

Raising Sand  4 55 ASC/  1//20th of a pt win   16/1

The old faithful! Thank you.

[cannotbebeat]

Newcastle

6.15 Rozalia 3/1

8.15 Buniann 12/1

Singles & double

Good luck all CNBB.

[black rabbit]

?

[azzybear]

James what 8.15 ew just a small bet 

[black rabbit]

8 hours ago, black rabbit said:

Able Kane   2 00 ASC/     1/20th of a pt  win    16/1

Raising Sand  4 55 ASC/  1//20th of a pt win   16/1

James Watt    8 15 NEW/   1/20th of a pt win    22/1

 

 

 

what a trojan  "raising sand is'  home and hosed ?

[Tedthewolf]

2 minutes ago, black rabbit said:

what a trojan  "raising sand is'  home and hosed ?

Lock up your daughters  there is a rich rabbit  on the loose.

[black rabbit]

20 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Lock up your daughters  there is a rich rabbit  on the loose.

?  had a "bulls eye" on it ted  { richard has put one up " mums tipple" in the 3 36 ascot

ive already punted asjad as i know its working the house down at home / but richards is 50's

so im having a "cockel" on cant let it go at that price ?