Tennis Tips - July 18 - July 24

[Torque]

Win or lose, Cerundolo looks like the bet to me. Rublev just isn't anywhere near reliable enough to justify such short odds, and that's before taking account of how good Cerundolo is on clay. I'm less enthusiastic about Putintseva as she's another player who lacks any sort of consistency.

[Dax]

I backed Cerundolo +1.5 set thanks to @neilovan

[Torque]

Twice a break up in the first, loses it without even making the tie-break. Starts second set on serve and gets broken from 40-0. This isn't an isolated performance either, he did the same sort of thing last week in a match although somehow managed to win.

[Torque]

GSM Cerundolo. When your second serve is a bad as Rublev's, you'd better focus on finding your first otherwise you're toast. It staggers me that he doesn't find a way to hit more first serves, or improve his second or both.

[neilovan]

Wow, how good was that. Just so solid from both sides. Cerundolo has incredible fast hands and racquet speed. Hits the ball amazingly for a reasonably small guy. A move from outside the top 100 at the start of the year, to probably # 27 now. Just fantastico !!!

 

[Dax]

I'd like to see him in the final against Alcaraz.

[neilovan]

3 minutes ago, Dax said:

I'd like to see him in the final against Alcaraz.

The way Alcaraz is playing he could get knocked out later. Just watching the game between Parrizas-diaz and Grabher. For me a no contest, that Parridaz-diaz will win. I went quite big on her but odds of 1.44 are good.

 

[Torque]

1 minute ago, neilovan said:

The way Alcaraz is playing he could get knocked out later.

 

Agree. He was grim in his first match and was lucky not to get knocked out. Was spraying unforced errors everywhere.

[Dax]

It was the first match on clay after RG. He will play better in the next rounds

[Torque]

1 minute ago, Dax said:

It was the first match on clay after RG. He will play better in the next rounds

I'm sure he will, but even so it was a poor performance. No way should it have taken a final set tie-break to get the win.

[Dax]

I agree but it's hard to play against an injured player

[CzechPunter]

Coric seems to be getting too much respect based on his name imo, and Molcan to beat him at 2.00 with William Hill looks very much like the right play to me here. Leaps of progress in recent times, and he's had recent success even against players I'd rate above the Croat.

[neilovan]

Lol , so Putintseva (injured?) manages to blow it. I didn't lose on the bet as I cashed out after she lost the 1st set.

Could of won 1100 but landed up winning 325 due to Cerundolo. Opposed Parry twice and both times my runner has been injured. I think its the only time she's actually won a match is when I've bet against her. 

Meanwhile, Alcaraz not looking too flash. Must get Krajanivic to streeetch and split his pants. Surely he needs a size up?

Edited July 21, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

Caroline Garcia playing a wildcard. Pretty good 1st set

 

	ElisabettaCocciaretto CarolineGarcia

1	Aces	0
1	Double faults	0
79%	First serve %	62%
91%	Win % on 1st serve	31%
100%	Win % on 2nd serve	25%
3/3	Break points	0/0
0	Tiebreaks won	0
15	Receiving points won	2
27	Points won	8
6	Games won	0
6	Max games won in a row	0
9	Max points won in a row	2
12	Service points won	6
3	Service games won	0

Ridiculous from a professional. Hell, I could get 8 points and I have a ruptured achilles, torn knee ligaments, and 6 compressed discs in my back.

That's just embarrassing ???  OMG she just won a game. Could be worth a bet at decent odds. She cant play worse...

Edited July 21, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

24 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Caroline Garcia playing a wildcard. Pretty good 1st set

 

	ElisabettaCocciaretto CarolineGarcia

1	Aces	0
1	Double faults	0
79%	First serve %	62%
91%	Win % on 1st serve	31%
100%	Win % on 2nd serve	25%
3/3	Break points	0/0
0	Tiebreaks won	0
15	Receiving points won	2
27	Points won	8
6	Games won	0
6	Max games won in a row	0
9	Max points won in a row	2
12	Service points won	6
3	Service games won	0

Ridiculous from a professional. Hell, I could get 8 points and I have a ruptured achilles, torn knee ligaments, and 6 compressed discs in my back.

That's just embarrassing ???  OMG she just won a game. Could be worth a bet at decent odds. She cant play worse...

I see injury break on bet365 but who is injured? Anyone?

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

I see injury break on bet365 but who is injured? Anyone?

Huge win, glad I didn't go out for dinner

[neilovan]

Not convinced regarding Konteveit today. She is showing no patience on the clay. It is very hit or miss, no crafting of a point or playing to patterns. I think that a very in form opponent will give her a lot of problems, and if this goes to a long 1st set, she is in trouble. Small bet on the up and coming Potapova here for the outright win. I think with 1 close set this match gets over the 20.5 games mark. I like a medium bet on the over 20.5 games which is 8 to 10.

In the other semi in Hamburg, I think Pera just cruises. I am using a slightly different staking strategy.  I am taking 3 separate bets of medium stake, and then holding back with a big bet once I see which way the match is going. If it goes against me, I am able to cash out (for a loss) some of my stake.  If the match is going my way, I am happy for a big bet (at lower odds). It has been working very well (in-play), but I am not sure if that is due to the clay surface (being more predictable than grass/hard).

Definitely going big on both Berretinni and Ruud again today. Will take both to win as a double. Vinolas is shaky, and I'll bet in play if somebody really gets on top. Should be a close one and probably best to stay away. WHo wants to gamble?????

I think Thiem is on his way . A score of 1-3 and odds of 1.21 look OK for me. Happy to plonk it down here.

Edited July 22, 2022 by neilovan

[Dax]

Zanevska +1.5 [email protected] they are playing indoor this morning I think there is margin for a set here

[neilovan]

2 minutes ago, Dax said:

Zanevska +1.5 [email protected] they are playing indoor this morning I think there is margin for a set here

I would not oppose Pera at the moment. Just going through a very good phase at the moment.

[Dax]

I know that, made it just because it's indoor

[neilovan]

Looking forward to the Hamburg tennis this afternoon. I like two matches and 1/2 like a 3rd one.

Cerundolo will definitely have too much game for Karatsev . He is on one hell of a winning streak, beating quality players. Swedish Open he beats Ruud, Karatsev, Busta (6-2,6-3 spanking), Baez in the final, then a demolition of Rublev yesterday. He is hitting the ball really well. Backhand is a wall, and forehand is a weapon. When someone is comfortable hitting endless backhands cross court, you know they are comfortable, patient and strong. Karatsev is actually quite limited (at this level). He seems frustrated and not comfortable with his game. Quite telling for me is that he blew up in the Stuttgart open qualifiers (ok on grass), after losing the 1st set.

Sat, 04 Jun Qualifiers·Court 1 Final   1 A. Karatsev 6 1     D. Stricker 7 6

This result, for a number 1 seed just should not happen.  I can see him getting blitzed here. He cannot live with Cerundolo today.

Borna Coric seems to be well on the way back from injury. Looks strong, and I think he will be too strong for Molcan. Molcan looked out on his feet against Busta, and I am not sure he is fully recovered from that really long, emotional match. He may come out a little flat. 1st set is crucial here, and I would go big on the winner of that 1st set.

Musetti is definitely more than capable of beating Davidovich-Fokina. I'm not sure how Fokina will handle that heavy, high, looping topspin ball.I think this will be a very close match, and would be going over 22.5 games and 9 to 10.

 

[Dax]

I think the roof is open ?

[neilovan]

So here's the question;

Just say you could back somebody for the win at odds of 4 to 10 for 10 units as match starts.

Is it better to wait until they look to be in control, and then back them at 2 to 10 for 30 units? Would this strategy work out long term? I don't have betfair 1minute data on all matches but this is definitely something worth investigating. What do you think?

Edited July 22, 2022 by neilovan

[Dax]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

So here's the question;

Just say you could back somebody for the win at odds of 4 to 10 for 10 units as match starts.

Is it better to wait until they look to be in control, and then back them at 2 to 10 for 30 units? Would this strategy work out long term? I don't have betfair 1minute data on all matches but this is definitely something worth investigating. What do you think?

This strategy looks quite risky to me, but I have no data that support my impression. You need to find and process them, not an easy task to do.

[Dax]

I backed, for tomorrow, [email protected] to win over Musetti. Quite a good price imo

[MinellaWorksop]

Looking through the WTA qualifiers games and two ladies who look overpriced outsiders, let's see how it plays out:

WTA Prague

Barbora Palicova 2.62

WTA Warsaw

Weronika Ewald 15.00

Prices Bet365

[CzechPunter]

Staying away from today personally, but good luck everyone. Ewald is a big shout @MinellaWorksop!

[Dax]

In Kitzbuhel, it's interesting Medjedovic vs Melzer. The last one played four hours yesterday losing to Lokoli in Finland, and today he's set to play in Austria. An handicap game in favour of the young Serbian (-2.5 or -3) should do the job, The only concern is the weather, it's forecast to be raining all day in Kitzbuhel.

[neilovan]

Cerundolo nearly blew it  ( from a set up and 4-1), against am opponent that had almost given up. He managed to come back from being behind in almost the whole of the 3rd set. For me Karatsev just struggling internally. Looked aggravated with himself, and probably was not great company after yesterdays match. He blew it. Cerundolo looked mentally and physically exhausted at various stages of the 2nd and 3rd sets. My feeling is there is nothing left in the tank today. Playing and winning last week, and going deep here, is not the norm for him. Mentally and physically, he looked fatigued

Musetti is playing well again. I lost a bet on him yesterday, as he was too good for Davidovich- Fokina (I thought games). Over the off court issues and is a hell of a player. Hard to believe he is only 20, and he looks every inch the player who took two sets of Djokovic at the French a few years ago. He is moving very well and hitting the ball really well. 

I think he wins this match. First set is crucial and if Cerundolo loses it, there is simply no way he can win in 3. He is outta juice.  So I'll take Musetti outright, and be prepared to lump it on (even at reduced odds), if he wins the 1st set.

Edited July 23, 2022 by neilovan

[MinellaWorksop]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Staying away from today personally, but good luck everyone. Ewald is a big shout @MinellaWorksop!

Like to throw a hail Mary in there now and again lol.

I've also had a look through the ATP qualifiers and I have backed two gentlemen who I feel are overpriced:

ATP Kitzbuhel

Gerald Melzer 2.50

ATP Umag

Matija Pecotic 3.00