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Racing Chat - Saturday 18th June (Royal Ascot Day 5)


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Ascot 2.30
Today’s card kicks off with the 7F Chesham Stakes, a listed contest for two year olds. We have a very warm favourite in the Aidan O’Brien trained Alfred Munnings who made a big impression when winning at Leopardstown last month. The 4th has won since although the runner up has been soundly beaten since. He’s obviously held in high regard and will be hard to beat although on what he’s achieved so far is short enough in the market. John and Thady Gosden saddle a trio of runners in Alzahir, Faisal Road and One World and all are open to improvement following a single run. At the prices I’ll take a chance with the Richard Hannon runner Dark Thirty who’s win at Newbury last month has been franked since by wins for the runner up and third. He looks a big price to me and can be backed each way along with Crypto Force, an Amo Racing owned colt trained by Michael O’Callaghan in Ireland. He won a strong Curragh maiden at the beginning of the month, a race in which the well touted Aidan O’Brien runner Auguste Rodin was an unlucky loser. Again he’s a nice price and can be backed small each way although as I stated earlier the most likely winner is the favourite who I would be loathe to lay.
 
DARK THIRTY 1/2 point each way 20/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 123
CRYPTO FORCE 1/2 point each way 12/1 William Hill 1/5th 123
 
Ascot 3.05
The 7F group 3 Jersey Stakes has attracted a nice field of fifteen three year olds and has an open look about it. Charlie Appleby saddles the favourite in Noble Truth who looked good when winning a listed contest at Newmarket in April although surprisingly he’s been gelded since. Saeed Bin Suroor’s Monaadah made all to beat Audience at Kempton on the all weather this month and is another runner with a chance here. In an open contest I’ll take a couple against the field each way. Firstly the Henry De Bromhead trained filly Star Girls Aaimal who is lightly raced and ran a stormer in the Irish 1000 guineas last time when finishing 4th (hampered a furlong out and the run can be marked up) beaten 6 1/4L to the smart winner Homeless Songs. That form has been boosted since by the runner up Tuesday winning the Oaks since and the 6th Purplepay winning a group 2 in France. She’s my main play although I can’t resist a small each way saver on German raider Rocchigiani who’s recent 1 1/4L runner up in the German 2000 guineas to William Haggas’s Maljoom was franked when he was an unlucky loser in Tuesdays St James Palace Stakes.
 
STAR GIRLS AAIMAL 1 point each way 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234
ROCCHIGIANI 1/2 point each way 12/1 BetVictor 1/5th 1234
 
Ascot 3.40
Only eight turn up for the group 2 Hardwicke Stakes run over a mile and a half for four year olds and upwards. It sees the re-appearance of last seasons Irish Derby, St Leger and Arc third Hurricane Lane. He’s top class and can win this especially if the forecast thunderstorms arrive although recent forecasts are now suggesting they won’t be turning up until after racing. If the ground doesn’t ease it wouldn’t be a shock were he to be pulled out as the Arc De Triomphe is the ultimate target this season. The Gosden’s Mostahdaf was firmly put in his place by Bay Bridge last time at Sandown and wears first time cheek pieces here stepping up in trip. Broome is a consistent sort and along with Solid Stone and Third Realm are feared most but this is all about Hurricane Lane who I expect to win if allowed to run.
 
HURRICANE LANE 3 points win 8/11 William Hill
 
Ascot 4.20
27 go to post for a fantastic renewal of the group one Platinum Jubilee Stakes. Run over 6F of the straight course for three year olds and older. The Australian runner Nature Strip won the Kings Stand on Tuesday in scintillating style and his stablemate Home Affairs looks the one they all have to beat here although at around the 2/1 mark hardly looks value in such a tight knit sprint. And don’t dismiss Aussie 2nd string Artorius who by all accao7nts is more than capable of running a big race. American Wesley Ward is having a week to forget but runs his Campanelle here who has won at the Royal meeting for the last two years and is a definite player. I’m hearing good things about William Haggas’s Sacred and although she hasn’t run this season can run well as long as the rain stays away. She will be part of my staking plan along with John Quinn’s Highfield Princess who shocked me with the ease of her victory in the the group 2 Duke Of York Stakes last time. A winner of the Buckingham Palace Stakes at the meeting last year she seems to be taking off now despite her age and she is a tasty price in a race where stakes are best kept small.
 
HIGHFIELD PRINCESS 1 point each way 14/1 bet365 1/5th 123456
SACRED 1/2 point each way @ 14/1 Coral 1/5th 12345
 
Ascot 5.00
A maximum field of 28 spread right across the track in the Wokingham Handicap run over 6F is up next. James Fanshawe’s Fresh has an excellent record at the track with form figures of 21234 with the last four coming in big field handicaps including when runner up in this contest last season. He would appreciate any easing of the ground and can be competitive. Blackrod comes here in good form having won at Newmarket in April and despite a 9lb rise in the weights is another for the shortlist for sprint specialist Michael Dodds. Top weight Rohaan shouldn’t be dismissed either. This will be the first handicap he’s contested since winning this from a 3lb higher mark and although soundly beaten last time has the services of Ryan Moore today. As you would expect it’s a tough call but the front two appeal most and I’ll play both each way with additional places.
 
FRESH 1 point each way 8/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123456
BLACKROD 1 point each way 10/1 bet365 1/5th 134567
 
Ascot 5.35
Yet another tricky handicap with the Golden Gates Handicap run over 10F for three year olds only. The favourite is the George Boughey trained Missed The Cut who like many here is making his handicap debut. He’s done little wrong in his short career and should go close. Charlie Appleby saddles a brace of runners in Blue Trail (last seen smacking William Buick in the face on Derby day!) and Falling Shadow who’s been gelded since winning his maiden at Newbury last month. Buick has chosen the latter but both have claims. Another Godolphin owned runner is the John and Thady Gosden trained Honiton who bolted up at Sandown in a maiden last time and although this will be a lot tougher can make his presence felt. I’ve been very impressed with Missed The Cut and although he’s relatively short is the one I want to be with James McDonald in the saddle.
 
MISSED THE CUT 1 1/2 points each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345
 
Ascot 6.10
The getting out stakes is the 2m 5 1/2F Queen Alexandra Stakes. The ground is the key here because if the forecast thunderstorms turn up and ease the ground then surely Trueshan who’s a monster when the conditions are in his favour will be hard to beat and go off more of an odds on chance here despite a 10lb penalty for his two group one victories last season, the Goodwood Cup and Prix Du Cadran both run on soft ground. He’s unbeaten in two starts at the Berkshire track and worth backing now as if the ground doesn’t ease he will no doubt be pulled out as he was on Thursday for the Gold Cup. Last year’s winner Statum is back to defend his title and looks a bit over priced although he doesn’t appear to be in the best of form since despite a novice chase win last December. Dermot Weld’s Falcon Eight went off a 7/4 favourite for this race last year but was unsuited by the softening of the ground and ended up well beaten. He would be the bet here if the rain stays away and Trueshan is pulled out. Wordsworth is the other contender at the front of the market with claims but it’s Trueshan for me if the ground eases.
 
TRUESHAN 2 points win 6/4 bet365
If NR
FALCON EIGHT 2 points win 11/2 bet365
 
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420 ascot 

Highfield princess  9.0 14/1 

Minzaal   8.7  16/1 

Glen shiel    8.7  50/1 

What an incredible race ....I can't recall the likes of this race ....I thought the computer was going to blow up rating this ...so many incredible sprinters and throw in home affair and how good is he and you have one Incredible race ....I'll try 5pt ew top 3 

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dubai station   5 00  1/5 pt ew 33/1       sky bet go 8 places  others go 7 

tiger  crusade   5 00   1/5 pt  ew 33/1  

sun king    5 35     1/5 pt win   12/1 

artirous   4 20   1/5 pt win   10/1 

dragon symbol   1/5 pt ew   50/1 

layfayette     1/5 pt ew  22/1        3 40 a.

concierge  1/5 pt win  5 09 newm  18/1  

 

 

 

P/L   + 131.75  

Edited by black rabbit
selections
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10 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

5.00 ascot wokingham 

Blackrod   8.9  9/1 

Prince lancelot  8.7 28/1 

Pop master     8.7  25/1 

Tabdeed   8.4  18/1 

Incredibly competitive 28 runner cavalry charge ....anything can happen....last race so I'll try 4x 5pt wins ...12x0.5 pt forecasts  24x 10p tricasts 

Surprised  Rohaan isn't in your top four mate may i ask how he rated as  i think it could do back to back wins.

Cheers  Ted👍

Edited by Tedthewolf
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2 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Surprised  Rohaan isn't in your top four mate may i ask how he rated as  i think it could do back to back wins.

Cheers  Ted👍

He's quite low down but that's probably due to top weight and poor recent run .....but he's well hcapped and Ryan Moore on board and has been heavily backed this week so maybe they've had this quietly  planned .....definately feasible 

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Wokingham

ROHAAN  12/1 e/w  won  nicely last year a few lbs lower this time should go really well again with Moore booked  Very decent e/w for me. 

APOLLO ONE 40/1 e/w is  for me the most interesting runner in the  field and looks  massively overpriced to me.  was just  beat in a decent 3yo race at Newmarket last year by Blackrod who has beaten  my horse again since then  but  is back on firmer ground now has   dropped a few lbs  has an apprentice on top who is in red hot form  7 winners from just 18 rides in the last week or so i really fancy this horse to go very  well today  40's 7places bog will do for me.  So its  two strong bets for me in this race today.

A small e/w on CEPHALUS 14/1 3.52 NM  had been running and winning on the AW not so good on turf  but interesting jockey booking today worth a small e/w play for me.

Some cracking winners  on ATR this week lets keep it going .

Good Luck All

 

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Frankies Fire is out again at Perth this afternoon and she has to be backed again. That Hexham race last time was run in a crawl and the jockey seemed to get caught out by that. She was staying on well at the end after getting outpaced and the time of the race was so much slower than the rest of the card. I'd be surprised given the bigger field if they didn't go a stronger pace here and this is a really weak contest. There are so many who it is hard to make any sort of case for and we know she has the potential to be well handicapped if things go her way. Young William is shorter than her in the betting and has to carry 1st8lbs more yet if this was a point he would be a massive price to beat her on these terms. I don't trust the form of his 3rd last time and I suspect Pammi will reverse form. She looks the most obvious danger as her record at Perth is very good and I don't think the way the race was run last time would have suited. That run was a very rare time where she was out of the first 3 at the track. Amazingly some bookies are going 4 places so I am happy to have a decent bet e/w on her. I know she's becoming a cliff horse, but clearly connections think she can win given they are carrying on racing her so hopefully she can get that win.

 

Frankies Fire e/w @ 13/2 with Bet365, Skybet and Coral (4 places)

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12 selections today in 0.1 ew doubles and trebles = 5 bets for 10 points

I have Rebel At Dawn in the 1.14 Ayr so mention it here and post.  Will come back shortly to add the rest

(A) 1.14 Ayr No1 7/2, 2.24 Ayr No. 2 9/4, 2.55 Ayr no. 10 8/1 and 5.23 Perth no 12 13/2  Doubles = 23.41 & Trebles = 79.66

(B) 3.52 NM No.7 5/2, 4.32 NM No. 8 3/1, 5.09 Nm No 1 5/1 and 5.13 Red no.1 11/2   Doubles = 16.59 and trebles = 49.03

(C) 3.32 Ayr no.8 15/2, 4.14 Ayr no.1 5/2, 2.07 Nm No. 3 7/2 and 4.02 Red No 5 5/2   Doubles = 16.07 and trebles = 45.07

TOP 1 - 4, 1.14 Ayr No.1 7/2, 2.24 Ayr No. 2 9/4, 3.52 Nm No.7 5/2 and 4.52 Nm No 8 3/1  Doubles = 10.16 and Trebles = 23.39

Total stakes = 10 points

Spent 6.5 pts on Richard's selections and 4 pts on the Brigadiers selections

= 20.5 pts staked on numerous selections today

Good luck to all.  I'll put my feet up now 🙂

Edited by The Equaliser
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Ascot day 5 trends

2.30

Draw 6 - 8, 7 from 24, AE 2.23, this leaves SUNNINGDALE and PEARLING PATH

1st or 2nd last time, 4 from 58

This leaves SUNNINGDALE at 33/1, 4 places

3.05

Draw 4 - 10, 7 from 53, AE 2.15, this reduces the field to 7

Ran less than 46 days ago, 2 from 103, this reduces the field to 5

1st or 2nd last time, 1 from 51, this leaves 3, DUBAWI LEGEND, TACARIB WAY and HELLO YOU

Bred in UK, 5 from 51, AE 1.75

This leaves TACARIB BAY at 25/1, 4 places

3.40

Older than 4, 1 from 35, this reduces the field to 2

Odds less than 7/2, 1 from 8

This leaves MOSTAHDAF at 9/1

5.00

Age less than 5, 1 from 82, this reduces the field to 16

Not in the top 8 in the weights, 4 from 158, this leaves 4, ROYAL COMMANDO, URBAN BEAT, VOLATILE ANALYSIS and COMMANCHE FALLS

Drawn higher than16, 3 from 103, this removes ROYAL COMMANDO

Ran less than 28 days ago, 2 from 84, this removes COMMANCHE FALLS

Bred in Ireland, 5 from 93, AE 1.28

This leaves URBAN BEAT at 40/1, 5 places 

6.10

Finished in 1st 4 last time, 0 from 53, this leaves FALCON EIGHT, RESHOUN, DINARD ROSE and STRATUM

Last ran less than 27 days ago, 0 from 37, this removes RESHOUN

Odds less than 7/1, 3 from 23, this removes FALCON EIGHT

Female horse, 0 from 7

This leaves STRATUM at 16/1, 4 places

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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On 6/17/2022 at 9:31 AM, richard-westwood said:

305 ascot 

Noble truth  8.8.9/2 

Monaadah    8.6 15/2 

Dubai Post 8.5 33/1 

Aflaila    8.2  

Tricky race ....any 1 of 5 or 6 could win this so I'll try 4pt wins on top 3 and hope a bigger priced wins 

Noble wins ...dubai 3rd !!...Great runs 

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5 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

4.41 pts returned.  Glen Shiel a non runner in the 4.20

Pity Dubai Poet didn't win though as I put up as a win Nap, haha

I won't replace him as home affair is the highest rated runner on timeform and is the one to beat ....Highfield is improving type but will need to improve about 4 or 5lb to beat the fav I reckon but its possible 

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14 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Wokingham

ROHAAN  12/1 e/w  won  nicely last year a few lbs lower this time should go really well again with Moore booked  Very decent e/w for me. 

APOLLO ONE 40/1 e/w is  for me the most interesting runner in the  field and looks  massively overpriced to me.  was just  beat in a decent 3yo race at Newmarket last year by Blackrod who has beaten  my horse again since then  but  is back on firmer ground now has   dropped a few lbs  has an apprentice on top who is in red hot form  7 winners from just 18 rides in the last week or so i really fancy this horse to go very  well today  40's 7places bog will do for me.  So its  two strong bets for me in this race today.

A small e/w on CEPHALUS 14/1 3.52 NM  had been running and winning on the AW not so good on turf  but interesting jockey booking today worth a small e/w play for me.

Some cracking winners  on ATR this week lets keep it going .

Good Luck All

 

Cephalus NR  Appolo one 8th but Rohaan  what a horse what a ride what a price 18/1.....its Beer o'clock  cheers

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