Jump to content
** April Poker League Result : 1st Like2Fish, 2nd McG, 3rd andybell666 **

Racing Chat - Monday 9th May.


Recommended Posts

Southwell 5.50 

Reve 9.77 (12/1)

Rockys Treasure 9.7 (11/2)

Boughtbeforelunch 9.56 (9/1)

Hardly anything between top 3, especially top two so I’ll go with 5 points win Reve. He’s suited by this tricky course but what I think is interesting is that he runs off 120 and his form reads off this mark 21111UR, he probably would have finished 1st or 2nd when unseating . 
 

Reve 12/1 

c/fc top 3 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Southwell 7.20 

Fanfan Du Seuil 9.46 (14/1)

Lucky Lover Boy 9.26 (14/1)

Coastguard Station 8.76 (3/2)

Fanfan has some really strong form from a few years back. Hasn’t hit the heights he maybe could have done but overpriced and might be too good for these. I’m not overly struck on Lucky Lover,  but has won off much higher in past and return to 2m on good ground might see him run well in this class .  Coastguard unexposed , but at the prices I’ll go top two and reverse forecast 

5 points win top two 14/1/14/1

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Southwell 7.20 

Fanfan Du Seuil 9.46 (14/1)

Lucky Lover Boy 9.26 (14/1)

Coastguard Station 8.76 (3/2)

Fanfan has some really strong form from a few years back. Hasn’t hit the heights he maybe could have done but overpriced and might be too good for these. I’m not overly struck on Lucky Lover,  but has won off much higher in past and return to 2m on good ground might see him run well in this class .  Coastguard unexposed , but at the prices I’ll go top two and reverse forecast 

5 points win top two 14/1/14/1

Coastguard Station wazzed up over CD and the 2nd and 3rd won next time out, might be worth a look in the without fav market!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My Trixie today is:

1.30 Catt Langholm 2/1

2.50 Muss Graces Quest 15/8 (though I don't like Paul Mulrennan)

5.50 Sou Percussion 3/1 (up 9lbs but @Alistairhas put it up so it must have a good chance)

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss retunr of 66.32

Single bets

1.40 Wolv Ringo starlight 1 pt win at 9.00

8.20 Sou Whispering Gypsy 1 pt win at 9/2 (looks a bit short but the Skeltons in good form atm)

Total stakes 6 pts

I will do a rescue bet on the 3rd leg of the Trixie if necessary

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A possible alternative to Computer Forecasts

With York coming up later this week and the possibility of @richard-westwoodrating a few races I thought I would try and contribute some value to each way doubles for this and possibly other events.

As mentioned previously the bookies manipulate requested fixed odds in their published returns for computer forecasts and tricasts.  What annoys me is that they let you request the odds and then smash up the returns once a race is over.  I find this very misleading and distasteful.

My thoughts are that if one is rating more than one race on any one day then it could pay to use a different approach and secure the fixed odds requested at the time of placing a bet.

This involves using two races instead of one to achieve returns that are not manipulated by the bookies.  It means placing a bet on two mixed crossed doubles in two races using two or three selections from each race.

When I was trying this out as an experiment I found that Betfair's Sportsbook would not even let me place one bet on two races with two selections. However, Bet365 does allow me to do this. It will allow three selections as well.   With two selections in two races, this amounts to 4 bets and with 3 selections in two races, this amounts to 9 bets (hopefully this provides full cover).

Obviously, this is not the same as a computer forecast but I can't see that there is a world of difference between one race as opposed to two when placing bets based upon ratings.  I will definitely be giving it a go should @richard-westwoodpost up two or more races during the York or any other meeting.

"Chance favours the prepared mind" Haha, no one is more prepared than the bookies.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

A possible alternative to Computer Forecasts

With York coming up later this week and the possibility of @richard-westwoodrating a few races I thought I would try and contribute some value to each way doubles for this and possibly other events.

As mentioned previously the bookies manipulate requested fixed odds in their published returns for computer forecasts and tricasts.  What annoys me is that they let you request the odds and then smash up the returns once a race is over.  I find this very misleading and distasteful.

My thoughts are that if one is rating more than one race on any one day then it could pay to use a different approach and secure the fixed odds requested at the time of placing a bet.

This involves using two races instead of one to achieve returns that are not manipulated by the bookies.  It means placing a bet on two mixed crossed doubles in two races using two or three selections from each race.

When I was trying this out as an experiment I found that Betfair's Sportsbook would not even let me place one bet on two races with two selections. However, Bet365 does allow me to do this. It will allow three selections as well.   With two selections in two races, this amounts to 4 bets and with 3 selections in two races, this amounts to 9 bets (hopefully this provides full cover).

Obviously, this is not the same as a computer forecast but I can't see that there is a world of difference between one race as opposed to two when placing bets based upon ratings.  I will definitely be giving it a go should @richard-westwoodpost up two or more races during the York or any other meeting.

"Chance favours the prepared mind" Haha, no one is more prepared than the bookies.

If you are doing each way doubles, there is also the chance that all bets could return some kind of profit via 2 placed selections.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

A possible alternative to Computer Forecasts

With York coming up later this week and the possibility of @richard-westwoodrating a few races I thought I would try and contribute some value to each way doubles for this and possibly other events.

As mentioned previously the bookies manipulate requested fixed odds in their published returns for computer forecasts and tricasts.  What annoys me is that they let you request the odds and then smash up the returns once a race is over.  I find this very misleading and distasteful.

My thoughts are that if one is rating more than one race on any one day then it could pay to use a different approach and secure the fixed odds requested at the time of placing a bet.

This involves using two races instead of one to achieve returns that are not manipulated by the bookies.  It means placing a bet on two mixed crossed doubles in two races using two or three selections from each race.

When I was trying this out as an experiment I found that Betfair's Sportsbook would not even let me place one bet on two races with two selections. However, Bet365 does allow me to do this. It will allow three selections as well.   With two selections in two races, this amounts to 4 bets and with 3 selections in two races, this amounts to 9 bets (hopefully this provides full cover).

Obviously, this is not the same as a computer forecast but I can't see that there is a world of difference between one race as opposed to two when placing bets based upon ratings.  I will definitely be giving it a go should @richard-westwoodpost up two or more races during the York or any other meeting.

"Chance favours the prepared mind" Haha, no one is more prepared than the bookies.

I sometimes attempt this and have come close several times . Providing you’ve got some big odds you can win big . Even smaller odds 2/1-4/1 etc can pay a nice treble for pretty small stakes .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Windsor. 

Doubles. 

5.05.Sweet Reward.    11/2..... unpl 

5.40.Radio Goo  Goo..... unpl 

singles & double. 

 

7.40.Dubai Leader.        4/1....... 7/1.          1st 

8.10.World Without Love.         5/2........ 2nd 

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited by kensland
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

A possible alternative to Computer Forecasts

With York coming up later this week and the possibility of @richard-westwoodrating a few races I thought I would try and contribute some value to each way doubles for this and possibly other events.

As mentioned previously the bookies manipulate requested fixed odds in their published returns for computer forecasts and tricasts.  What annoys me is that they let you request the odds and then smash up the returns once a race is over.  I find this very misleading and distasteful.

My thoughts are that if one is rating more than one race on any one day then it could pay to use a different approach and secure the fixed odds requested at the time of placing a bet.

This involves using two races instead of one to achieve returns that are not manipulated by the bookies.  It means placing a bet on two mixed crossed doubles in two races using two or three selections from each race.

When I was trying this out as an experiment I found that Betfair's Sportsbook would not even let me place one bet on two races with two selections. However, Bet365 does allow me to do this. It will allow three selections as well.   With two selections in two races, this amounts to 4 bets and with 3 selections in two races, this amounts to 9 bets (hopefully this provides full cover).

Obviously, this is not the same as a computer forecast but I can't see that there is a world of difference between one race as opposed to two when placing bets based upon ratings.  I will definitely be giving it a go should @richard-westwoodpost up two or more races during the York or any other meeting.

"Chance favours the prepared mind" Haha, no one is more prepared than the bookies.

Yes I'm at work currently but I'm going to post as many races as I can and have a good go at york ☺ 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My Trixie today is:

1.30 Catt Langholm 2/1

2.50 Muss Graces Quest 15/8 (though I don't like Paul Mulrennan)

5.50 Sou Percussion 3/1 (up 9lbs but @Alistairhas put it up so it must have a good chance)

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss retunr of 66.32

Single bets

1.40 Wolv Ringo starlight 1 pt win at 9.00

8.20 Sou Whispering Gypsy 1 pt win at 9/2 (looks a bit short but the Skeltons in good form atm)

Total stakes 6 pts

I will do a rescue bet on the 3rd leg of the Trixie if necessary

RESULTS UPDATE

The first one of my Trixie let me down.  I find it very tricky when to take notice of the market when a price drifts.  The horse was 5/4 last night and 2/1 this morning.  Hindsight tells me that I should have passed it over. We live and learn.  The other two won and the double paid £11.5.  The two singles lost which means a 5.5 profit on the day.  The MTD is +44.25 and YTD is - 185.02

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...