Racing chat - thurs 14th April

[richard-westwood]

3.00 newm 

Hirtzadar    9.1  3/1 

Enigmatic   8.9  16/1 

Siam fox 8.3 

10pt win top rated ...5pt ew enigmatic 

[kensland]

Double 

3.50.Chelt.IIe De Jersey.        6/1 

4.40.Exet. Becky The Boo.      3/1 

singles & double 

Good luck all. 

[cannotbebeat]

These are the 3 trainer/jockey combinations I am following for April

Grant Tuer/Oliver Stammers
Runs 6 - L L L L L L

A D Brown/Paula Muir
Runs 1 - L

K A Ryan/Kevin Stott
Runs 18 - L L L L L L W L L L L NR L L L L L NR

Bets 25 - Profit 0 - Loss 180

Winning Price 4/1 NR NR

Today's Runners

Ripon
1.40 Lady Raeburn 11/2

2.15 Tommy Taylor 25/1

Good luck all CNBB.

[kensland]

Just a fancy. 

Newmarket. 

Single. 

1.50.Royal Mariner.       11/1

Good luck all. 

[calva decoy]

With Clonmel hosting 7 races R.Blackmore tips up at Cheltenham for 2 rides .

1.30 LADY RITA 6/1 eway ( 2 ) 2nd 17/2 

4.25 ALICE AVRIL 3/1 ?

Edited April 14, 2022 by calva decoy
results update

[The Equaliser]

My Trixie today is

3.15 Chelt Barden Bella 15/8

4.50 Clon Manitopark Aa evens

6.10 Exe Wicked West 6/5

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return 29.12

Cover bets

3.15 Chelt Madera Mist 1 pt at 4.0, Jubilympics 0.5 pts @4/1 and Outonpatrol 0.5 pts at 11/2

4.50 Clon Quary Lil 1 pt at 3/1, Rare Connor 0.5 pts at 11/2 and Maybenextime 0.5 pts at 14/1

6.10 Exe Red Happy 1 pt at 3/1, Kauto The King 0.5 pts at 5/1 and Destin D'Ajonic 0.5 pts at 8/1

Total stakes = 10 pts

Let's see what happens with this strategy.  At least watching the races should be fun ?

 

[azzybear]

theatre glory .on my command rf1.30 cannot back a odds on favourite 

[richard-westwood]

20 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

3.00 newm 

Hirtzadar    9.1  3/1 

Enigmatic   8.9  16/1 

Siam fox 8.3 

10pt win top rated ...5pt ew enigmatic 

3rd and 4th ....enigmatic 3rd at 33/1 ...ew money ...unlucky In running again and making ground up too late ...hortzadar 

Edited April 14, 2022 by richard-westwood

[The Equaliser]

4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My Trixie today is

3.15 Chelt Barden Bella 15/8

4.50 Clon Manitopark Aa evens

6.10 Exe Wicked West 6/5

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return 29.12

Cover bets

3.15 Chelt Madera Mist 1 pt at 4.0, Jubilympics 0.5 pts @4/1 and Outonpatrol 0.5 pts at 11/2

4.50 Clon Quary Lil 1 pt at 3/1, Rare Connor 0.5 pts at 11/2 and Maybenextime 0.5 pts at 14/1

6.10 Exe Red Happy 1 pt at 3/1, Kauto The King 0.5 pts at 5/1 and Destin D'Ajonic 0.5 pts at 8/1

Total stakes = 10 pts

Let's see what happens with this strategy.  At least watching the races should be fun ?

 

6.10 Ex 2pts win at 2.28 = poss return 2.51 (Last leg with no winner in the Trixie)

= 12 points staked now

 

[azzybear]

red happy 6.10 this horse should be hard to beat today 

[The Equaliser]

5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

6.10 Ex 2pts win at 2.28 = poss return 2.51 (Last leg with no winner in the Trixie)

= 12 points staked now

 

RESULTS UPDATE

A bit annoying that the results show a 4.06 pts loss when the idea was for the cover bets to pay for my Trixie.  I think that Wicked West was full of running when it fell and so the 2 pts was justified as an extra  singles bet.  I like this new approach and will keep it going for the rest of April.  If it works out to show a profit I give all credit to @richard-westwoodfor the multiple singles idea in one race.  _4.06 pts, MTD - 56.96 & YTD - 212.77

[Bang on]

12 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

RESULTS UPDATE

A bit annoying that the results show a 4.06 pts loss when the idea was for the cover bets to pay for my Trixie.  I think that Wicked West was full of running when it fell and so the 2 pts was justified as an extra  singles bet.  I like this new approach and will keep it going for the rest of April.  If it works out to show a profit I give all credit to @richard-westwoodfor the multiple singles idea in one race.  _4.06 pts, MTD - 56.96 & YTD - 212.77

I would seriously stop betting and just PAPER TRADE for the rest of the month. For me, a yearly loss of -212pts so far would have wiped out 4 betting banks (I use 50pts) and would be damaging a 5th. You can't seem to settle on an angle for your betting, and your latest is not IMO the way to go. I have no trouble with 'dutching' , but in the right races.

You used the 3.15 Chelt - just 6 runners, and you backed 4 of them. Even worse, you used the 6.10 at Exeter that had only 5 runners and you backed 4 of them. You may as well have backed them all and just 'hoped' for the outsider to win.

My advice would be to analyse where you are losing the most (My guess is MULTIPLES like the trixies). I must admit, I do the occasional trixie, but not every day, only when it suits me.

As for multiple selections in a race, try to avoid short prices as IN THE LONG RUN you will be better off. Personally I only very rarely back below 9/4 ( and average around 3/1 - 4/1). This means that losses from a losing run can be far more easily recovered than with favourites. Remember, favourites generally win around 1 in 3, so 2/3 are losers.

@richard-westwood generally has some good priced selections which is why you can dutch  with them, dutching short prices are financial suicide, you need a 'fair return' on your stake to make money long term.

Finally, it is not easy, we have all made plenty of mistakes, and you can only try and learn from them. As I stated earlier, I would suspend actual betting for now and paper trade a few ideas until you find what works best for you. AVOID the MULTIPLES (both trixies and multiple in a race) for now, and try to find just a NAP and NB for now.

I hope you turn things around, good luck.

[The Equaliser]

30 minutes ago, Bang on said:

I would seriously stop betting and just PAPER TRADE for the rest of the month. For me, a yearly loss of -212pts so far would have wiped out 4 betting banks (I use 50pts) and would be damaging a 5th. You can't seem to settle on an angle for your betting, and your latest is not IMO the way to go. I have no trouble with 'dutching' , but in the right races.

You used the 3.15 Chelt - just 6 runners, and you backed 4 of them. Even worse, you used the 6.10 at Exeter that had only 5 runners and you backed 4 of them. You may as well have backed them all and just 'hoped' for the outsider to win.

My advice would be to analyse where you are losing the most (My guess is MULTIPLES like the trixies). I must admit, I do the occasional trixie, but not every day, only when it suits me.

As for multiple selections in a race, try to avoid short prices as IN THE LONG RUN you will be better off. Personally I only very rarely back below 9/4 ( and average around 3/1 - 4/1). This means that losses from a losing run can be far more easily recovered than with favourites. Remember, favourites generally win around 1 in 3, so 2/3 are losers.

@richard-westwood generally has some good priced selections which is why you can dutch  with them, dutching short prices are financial suicide, you need a 'fair return' on your stake to make money long term.

Finally, it is not easy, we have all made plenty of mistakes, and you can only try and learn from them. As I stated earlier, I would suspend actual betting for now and paper trade a few ideas until you find what works best for you. AVOID the MULTIPLES (both trixies and multiple in a race) for now, and try to find just a NAP and NB for now.

I hope you turn things around, good luck.

Very many thanks for your very considerate thoughts; they are much appreciated.

I purposely record my transactions so that other users on PL are forewarned not to follow me unless and until I produce a strategy that works.  I can't help being me and I will never paper trade anything (apart form a roulette method that I play around with from time to time).  It is all part of the fun for me.

I believe that I will not lose money from now on with my new strategy.  It is -4.06 points but I feel that it will definitely improve and make money.  I will continue with it throughout April.

Just as important to me is the amount of time I spend on my racing selections.  I am now able to spend far less time in arriving at my selections. I don't have lots of time to spend on this activity anymore as I am now looking after my wife 24/7.

It is of little concern to me if I lost my whole betting bank, though it would hurt my pride.  People blow a lot more money on holidays than I lose in any one year so and I get a lot more hours of entertainment than they do (though very frustrating  at times).

Many thanks once again for showing concern.

     

[MCLARKE]

Very wise advice from @Bang onalthough if @The Equaliserderives enjoyment from his betting then good luck to him.

Enjoyment from racing is the main objective, if the sole objective is to make a profit then there are much easier ways to do it, for instance the stock market.

Ultimately it is a less than zero sum game, the bookies will always amend the odds to ensure they make a profit.

There will be small number of winners and a much larger number of losers, perversely as more information becomes available and some punters become more skilled it becomes more difficult to make a profit.

Personally, I like my systems to make a profit for 5 years before I put my money down.

 

[Zilzalian]

17 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Very many thanks for your very considerate thoughts; they are much appreciated.

I purposely record my transactions so that other users on PL are forewarned not to follow me unless and until I produce a strategy that works.  I can't help being me and I will never paper trade anything (apart form a roulette method that I play around with from time to time).  It is all part of the fun for me.

I believe that I will not lose money from now on with my new strategy.  It is -4.06 points but I feel that it will definitely improve and make money.  I will continue with it throughout April.

Just as important to me is the amount of time I spend on my racing selections.  I am now able to spend far less time in arriving at my selections. I don't have lots of time to spend on this activity anymore as I am now looking after my wife 24/7.

It is of little concern to me if I lost my whole betting bank, though it would hurt my pride.  People blow a lot more money on holidays than I lose in any one year so and I get a lot more hours of entertainment than they do (though very frustrating  at times).

Many thanks once again for showing concern.

     

I get what you are saying about your bank and losing it, My brother spends more on a night out than i spend in a week on betting and you are correct its a good hobby, most hobbys cost money at least we can make a bit of money now and again, my one critisism of the way you bet is that it seems to be based around everything except your own opinions ie paper pundits, tipsters etc etc, and for me your selections are generally too short in price, i like trixies and lucky 15 but heres the thing i rarely put favs on them, they are usually small stakes ie £6 total (lucky 15, 50p or £1 trixies) they are usually bigger price selections then if i get a double its good profit, treble is exceptional and once in a blue moon all 4 is a years salary, but saying all that most of my winnings come from win singles. But the bottom line is if you are happy with your hobby win lose or draw then thats all that matters really.

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

I get what you are saying about your bank and losing it, My brother spends more on a night out than i spend in a week on betting and you are correct its a good hobby, most hobbys cost money at least we can make a bit of money now and again, my one critisism of the way you bet is that it seems to be based around everything except your own opinions ie paper pundits, tipsters etc etc, and for me your selections are generally too short in price, i like trixies and lucky 15 but heres the thing i rarely put favs on them, they are usually small stakes ie £6 total (lucky 15, 50p or £1 trixies) they are usually bigger price selections then if i get a double its good profit, treble is exceptional and once in a blue moon all 4 is a years salary, but saying all that most of my winnings come from win singles. But the bottom line is if you are happy with your hobby win lose or draw then thats all that matters really.

I agree with what you say.  However the strategy I am applying will not work with the second or third favourite imo.  What I am doing is choosing races where up to the first four/three/two in the betting are less than 9/1. I am then putting the favourite in a Trixie and backing the other horses with a view to getting just over 3.333 plus back if the favourite should lose.  This means that I should recover my stakes if the Trixie bombs out and one of my other horses wins the race.  I am not looking at tipsters/pundits or anyone else for this method, it is just based on prices and not too many horses in the race being below 9/1.  I also agree that singles are the best way to win money as put forward by @Bang onand @MCLARKE.  However, I have yet to find a method that will achieve this.

I do realise that my latest strategy is unproven and would not recommend anyone to follow it but at least it keeps my hopes up that I may have stumbled on something worthwhile.

Thank you for your thoughts.