Tennis Tips - Futures

[amity]

Am creating this thread for future tennis tips, feel free to add anything relevant. 

[amity]

Here's my first tip:

I think the first option here is definitely worth a bet, Paula is currently no. 6 in the rankings and has a great chance of finishing top 10 this year. 6/4 with Paddy Power. 

A small stake on top 5 is I think also worth a shot, although obviously less certain than top 10. 11/2 with Paddy Power. 

And a very small amount on top 3 in case she has a stellar year. 12/1 with Paddy Power. 

 

[amity]

I notice Paddy Power have pulled all of these Paula Badosa specials a couple of days ago. Hopefully some of you got on in time!

[four-leaf]

Iga Schwiontek to win Australian open 2023 at 7.00 with Betsson (now currently at 4.50)

Carlitos Alcaraz to win Australian open 2023 at 7.00 with Betsson

I'd like some discussion concerning Carlitos so if anyone has any input I'd like to hear. I placed a massive double on the price 49.00 for both these bets to come in.

Edited September 12, 2022 by four-leaf

[Dax]

@four-leafwell, I think it's a bit early to make a prediction on the AO 2023. I can only say that we don't know yet whether Djokovic will take part in the tournament or not. In the meantime USO 2022 has to be played which can give us a more clear indication of what will be going on in Australia. Personally, before placing an antepost bet I wait for the draws to be made, and only if I find a suitable price I place a bet.

[four-leaf]

On 7/30/2022 at 11:52 PM, four-leaf said:

Iga Schwiontek to win Australian open 2023 at 7.00 with Betsson (now currently at 4.50)

Carlitos Alcaraz to win Australian open 2023 at 7.00 with Betsson

I'd like some discussion concerning Carlitos so if anyone has any input I'd like to hear. I placed a massive double on the price 49.00 for both these bets to come in.

I'm pretty pumped up for this now.

[Swiss Maestro]

On 7/30/2022 at 11:52 PM, four-leaf said:

I'd like some discussion concerning Carlitos so if anyone has any input I'd like to hear.

Hi.

Coria, Baez, Brooksby, Cilic, Sinner, Tiafoe and Ruud... TBH, I can't remember the last time I saw such an easy draw. Despite that, he was close to lose against Cilic, Sinner and Tiafoe. For many different reasons (covid, the war, injuries,etc), the men's circuit is not living its best moment and Alcaraz has just taken advantage of that.

The simple fact he and Ruud were playing for the world's number one spot is a clear indicative of that. I like Ruud, but he's not a gifted guy. He's just a really consistent player. This can also be applied to Norrie, who's in the Top 10, too. Even Hurkacz is currently in the Top 10. I really like all these guys, but they're not gifted players. I know Carlos did not face Hubert/Norrie... I'm just mentioning them to prove my point, which is the ATP is not living its best moment.

What would've happened if Carlos had faced Djokovic? Or Nadal? Or Sascha? Or Kyrgios? Or Medvedev? He avoided all the really good guys... and he still was close to lose in 3 of the 7 matches he played. I think he's incredibly good for his age... But I also think that the players I mentioned before are better. And I also would include Berrettini, Tsitsipas, Sinner, Felix, Fritz and the serve bots in the list of players who can beat him in the AO (Berrettini was the one who beat him in the AO 22).

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome @Swiss Maestro! Thanks for the input and have a great run with Punterslounge!

[four-leaf]

17 hours ago, Swiss Maestro said:

Hi.

Coria, Baez, Brooksby, Cilic, Sinner, Tiafoe and Ruud... TBH, I can't remember the last time I saw such an easy draw. Despite that, he was close to lose against Cilic, Sinner and Tiafoe. For many different reasons (covid, the war, injuries,etc), the men's circuit is not living its best moment and Alcaraz has just taken advantage of that.

The simple fact he and Ruud were playing for the world's number one spot is a clear indicative of that. I like Ruud, but he's not a gifted guy. He's just a really consistent player. This can also be applied to Norrie, who's in the Top 10, too. Even Hurkacz is currently in the Top 10. I really like all these guys, but they're not gifted players. I know Carlos did not face Hubert/Norrie... I'm just mentioning them to prove my point, which is the ATP is not living its best moment.

What would've happened if Carlos had faced Djokovic? Or Nadal? Or Sascha? Or Kyrgios? Or Medvedev? He avoided all the really good guys... and he still was close to lose in 3 of the 7 matches he played. I think he's incredibly good for his age... But I also think that the players I mentioned before are better. And I also would include Berrettini, Tsitsipas, Sinner, Felix, Fritz and the serve bots in the list of players who can beat him in the AO (Berrettini was the one who beat him in the AO 22).

And what is your point here about my acca with Carlitos and Schwiontek to win AO23?

[four-leaf]

[four-leaf]

Right now as things stand.

[four-leaf]

It's a shame Alcaraz can be beaten by all kinds of players in the AO but is there even some chance of him winning the tournament is the question? Can he be the first dominant world no.1 since Djokovic/Federer? In the early years Federer didn't have Djokovic to battle against so he kind of took advantage of what he could with Nadal only able to beat him in Roland Garros which made Federer being able to continue stay as no.1 for years.

[four-leaf]

Carlitos yesterday lost against just one of the mentioned players by @Swiss Maestro in Davis Cup indoors in Spain but it was bound to be a tough match after he came from New york just days after his biggest achievement so far.

[Swiss Maestro]

17 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Carlitos yesterday lost against just one of the mentioned players by @Swiss Maestro in Davis Cup indoors in Spain but it was bound to be a tough match after he came from New york just days after his biggest achievement so far.

Felix is the most inconsistent player of the tennis history. One day he can play one of the best matches of his career and the next day lose to an unknown player.

17 hours ago, four-leaf said:

It's a shame Alcaraz can be beaten by all kinds of players in the AO but is there even some chance of him winning the tournament is the question?

I never said he has no chance. I just think the conditions there make him more vulnerable. If he wins another GS in 2023 I think it will be Roland Garros. The number of players who can beat him on clay in a best-of-5 set match decrease considerably in comparison to the number of players who can beat him in the AO. 

Medvedev and Nole are clearly superior to him on that surface (AO). 

Then, I would put Nadal, Zverev and Kyrgios in a second group. They are better... but their physical/mental conditions make them unpredictable. 

Finally, there's a third group which include Felix, Berrettini, Tsitsipas, Fritz, Rublev, Sinner, Shapo and the serve bots. They lack consistency..., but on a good day they are all very capable of beating Carlos in the AO. Trust me. 
Many threats..., so it will depend on the draw. I can't imagine him having a draw like the one he had in the US Open. 

17 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Can he be the first dominant world no.1 since Djokovic/Federer? In the early years Federer didn't have Djokovic to battle against so he kind of took advantage of what he could with Nadal only able to beat him in Roland Garros which made Federer being able to continue stay as no.1 for years.

I think is too early for that. He still has to improve his serve, become more consistent and reduce his unforced errors, which many times come from the nowhere. IMO, he's still very far from becoming a dominant world number one. I think he can become a dominant player on clay, but not on hard/grass.

[four-leaf]

6 hours ago, Swiss Maestro said:

Felix is the most inconsistent player of the tennis history. One day he can play one of the best matches of his career and the next day lose to an unknown player.

I never said he has no chance. I just think the conditions there make him more vulnerable. If he wins another GS in 2023 I think it will be Roland Garros. The number of players who can beat him on clay in a best-of-5 set match decrease considerably in comparison to the number of players who can beat him in the AO. 

Medvedev and Nole are clearly superior to him on that surface (AO). 

Then, I would put Nadal, Zverev and Kyrgios in a second group. They are better... but their physical/mental conditions make them unpredictable. 

Finally, there's a third group which include Felix, Berrettini, Tsitsipas, Fritz, Rublev, Sinner, Shapo and the serve bots. They lack consistency..., but on a good day they are all very capable of beating Carlos in the AO. Trust me. 
Many threats..., so it will depend on the draw. I can't imagine him having a draw like the one he had in the US Open. 

I think is too early for that. He still has to improve his serve, become more consistent and reduce his unforced errors, which many times come from the nowhere. IMO, he's still very far from becoming a dominant world number one. I think he can become a dominant player on clay, but not on hard/grass.

But his best surface is hard according to his results and himself. Grass is where I don't think to highly of him.

[Swiss Maestro]

4 hours ago, four-leaf said:

But his best surface is hard according to his results and himself. Grass is where I don't think to highly of him.

His overall record on clay is 103-28. 49-14 on hard. This year, he has played 5 finals on clay tournaments and 2 on hard. 90% of the spanish players are clearly better on clay. As I said before, he has no big serve which means he has no free points. Having free points is so important when you play on fast courts. 

Just take a look at the stats of his recent match against Felix. Felix had an 81% of points won with first serve, including 16 Aces. Carlos had a 65% of points won with first serve, including only 3 Aces. The difference between them on the points won with second serve is minimal (58%-54%). So, Felix's big serve made the difference.

[four-leaf]

[Swiss Maestro]

@four-leafHe said that? Respect. 

[four-leaf]

@Swiss Maestro apparently he said so but I think the era of Nadal/Djokovic is coming to an end soon.. Murray and Federer are already gone. Highly doubtful that Nole even gets past the borders of Australia next year.

[Foo_Fighter]

Early prediction for the 4 majors in 2023:

AO - Medvedev or Alcaraz

Roland Garros - Tsitsipas or Alcaraz

Wimbledon - Taylor Fritz or Kyrgios

USO - Zverev or Djokovic

 

 

[Swiss Maestro]

On 9/20/2022 at 9:36 PM, Foo_Fighter said:

Early prediction for the 4 majors in 2023:

AO - Medvedev or Alcaraz

Roland Garros - Tsitsipas or Alcaraz

Wimbledon - Taylor Fritz or Kyrgios

USO - Zverev or Djokovic

 

 

I like that. IMO, Medvedev must be on both AO and USO cause he's the best hard court player (along with Djokovic).

Djokovic must be included in all the Grand Slams he will be able to play.

If we see the best Sascha again I think he could win one the next year. Sascha in his prime is one of the most amazing players I have ever seen..., and he can play really good in all the surfaces. Unfortunately, at this moment he's very far from his best version.

[Foo_Fighter]

2 hours ago, Swiss Maestro said:

I like that. IMO, Medvedev must be on both AO and USO cause he's the best hard court player (along with Djokovic).

Djokovic must be included in all the Grand Slams he will be able to play.

If we see the best Sascha again I think he could win one the next year. Sascha in his prime is one of the most amazing players I have ever seen..., and he can play really good in all the surfaces. Unfortunately, at this moment he's very far from his best version.

 

He's by far my favorite player in men's tennis. Zverev should have already reached #1 and won at least a couple of majors, but, he hasn't, and it's his fault of course. Winning Masters Cup twice (2018, 2021) and the gold medal ?at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics (in 2021 lol) must be his greatest achievements so far. He's also the only active player outside of the Big Four with five Masters 1000 titles. I don't know if he has underachieved... It's quite complicated. I'd say that he has underachieved only in Grand Slams, which are the most important tournaments on tour. 

Edited September 22, 2022 by Foo_Fighter

[raduvlad1995]

3 hours ago, Foo_Fighter said:

 

He's by far my favorite player in men's tennis. Zverev should have already reached #1 and won at least a couple of majors, but, he hasn't, and it's his fault of course. Winning Masters Cup twice (2018, 2021) and the gold medal ?at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics (in 2021 lol) must be his greatest achievements so far. He's also the only active player outside of the Big Four with five Masters 1000 titles. I don't know if he has underachieved... It's quite complicated. I'd say that he has underachieved only in Grand Slams, which are the most important tournaments on tour. 

wow from your pic I assumed rogie was your favourite player. Nice to see someone that likes zverev, he s far from beying my favorite player but I definetly respect his abilities and I think tennis "fans" should respect him more.

[Foo_Fighter]

5 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

wow from your pic I assumed rogie was your favourite player. Nice to see someone that likes zverev, he s far from beying my favorite player but I definetly respect his abilities and I think tennis "fans" should respect him more.

You were right. I'm a huge Fedfan. So yeah, Zverev is my second favorite player. 

[four-leaf]

@Swiss Maestro don't forget that Carlitos is yet to lose a fast court final. He's lost finals on clay but one of the wins on clay was on the faster claycourt in Madrid.

[four-leaf]

Ok so now Carlitos suffers from a muscle tear, anyone knows how long he could be gone? I don't have any info. Feels much more like FAA is the big candidate to win AO23 now.

Djokovic is banned for 3 years from Australia unless he gets the decision overturned in December.

[CzechPunter]

They're saying about 6 weeks, so he should just about make it, but probably without much training/match practice.

[four-leaf]

Alcaraz withdraws from Aussie O and I'm happy because it means only Iga Schwiontek to win AO is valid from now on and I got the odds 7.00 on that to happen which is now down to 2.60 so pretty happy about Alcaraz withdrawing.

[Foo_Fighter]

1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

Alcaraz withdraws from Aussie O and I'm happy because it means only Iga Schwiontek to win AO is valid from now on and I got the odds 7.00 on that to happen which is now down to 2.60 so pretty happy about Alcaraz withdrawing.

I hope you win but Iga struggles to control her ball flight with these lighter balls.

[four-leaf]

4 minutes ago, Foo_Fighter said:

I hope you win but Iga struggles to control her ball flight with these lighter balls.

At least there is something you can deal with. Alcaraz struggled with more than ball flight since winning USO so I'm pretty happy with him withdrawing. Leaving me with only Iga is something I don't have a problem with and it's a relief since I know Alcaraz had gone out early had he participated.