Racing Chat - Saturday 29th January

[The Brigadier]

Festival Trials day at Cheltenham plus Skybet Handicap Chase day at Doncaster makes for a decent afternoons racing with ITV showing seven races. The ground at both tracks is an unseasonable good and won’t suit the out and out mudlarks

 

Cheltenham 1.55

A competitive looking 2m 4F 127yds handicap chase with the market headed by the Paul Nicholls trained top weight Magic Saint who will be ridden by 5lb conditional jockey Tom Buckley. He has an obvious chance on his favoured good ground and should be thereabouts. The other market leader is Venetia Williams’ Farinet who would have been a strong fancy on soft ground but with the ground drying all the time is over looked today. The pair of them take a fair chunk out of the market at around 5/4 the pair and I think it’s worth looking elsewhere for some value. Nick William’s Galahad Quest has a shout on his course form this season including when just under three lengths behind Magic Saint last time but I’ll take an each way chance with the firms paying the additional 4th place with Milton Harris’s Jacamar. Lightly raced over fences, this will be only his fifth outing over the larger obstacles, he came good at Kempton last time out and a 3lb rise may not enough to halt this seven year old who will be ridden by Paddy Brennan. 

JACAMAR 1 point each way @ 10/1 Ladbrokes/Coral 1/5 123

 

Doncaster 2.10

Five mares assemble here for the Yorkshire Rose Mares Hurdle, a grade 2 event run over two miles. Warm favourite and most likely winner is the Paul Nicholls trained Miranda who has to shoulder a 6lb penalty for her victory in this contest this last year from Floressa. She arrives in decent form having won a Ludlow handicap hurdle last time out off of top weight. She’ll be hard to beat. Western Victory had her first outing for Emma Lavelle at Ascot a week ago and went off far too hard - surely she’s better than that whilst Anna Bunina comes over from Ireland with a chance but this should really be going back to Ditcheat and the Bryony Frost ridden Miranda. 

MIRANDA 3 points win @ 10/11 BetVictor

 

Cheltenham 2.30

Favourites have a shocking record in this Cotswold Chase run over 3m 1 1/2F of the new course today. Just one favourite in the last 23 years has obliged (Santini in 2020 at 13/8) and this years renewal has a short priced favourite in the Nicky Henderson trained Chantry House. He could quite easily be far too good for these but was bitterly disappointing at Kempton in the King George at Kempton over Christmas when his trainer stated that he simply didn’t handle the track. He has a 4lb penalty to carry today and even on official ratings doesn’t come out as the best horse in the race. I’m happy to leave him alone today. The other horse that carries a 4lb penalty is Aye Right trained in Scotland by Harriet Graham who comes here on the back of a career best win at Newcastle in the Rehearsal Handicap Chase in November. He has a chance but may just lack the class to win this. Kauto Riko looks out of his depth with 2020 winner Santino who is now trained down in Somerset by Polly Gundry not the force of old when trained by Nicky Henderson. That leaves us with the Paul Nicholls trained Simply The Betts who could well be the one to be on here. He has to prove his stamina as he pulled up on his only try at this trip at Aintree last December but the ground was very soft that day and he’s worth a wager back on better ground. 

SIMPLY THE BETTS 1 point win @ 10/3 William Hill

 

Doncaster 2.45

A sub standard grade 2 River Don Novices’ Hurdle run over three miles has attracted seven staying hurdlers. All seven have a chance of sorts. Chris Gordon’s Unanswered Prayers heads the market currently following his Wincanton victory earlier in the month over 2m 5 1/2F and should appreciate the longer distance today. Sandy Thomson runs his Coolbane Boy, a three mile handicap hurdle winner at Musselburgh on New Years Day and although he’s only won two of his twelve career starts should be competitive. The Irish raider is the John McConnell trained Mahler Mission who impressed when making all to win a 2m 4F novice hurdle at Sedgefield a fortnight ago. He sports a first time tongue tie today which may eek further improvement out of him. His shrewd trainer has a 33% strike rate with his hurdlers in the country over the last five years and stepping up in trip here should suit. In a tough contest I’ll take him to small stakes. 

MAHLER MISSION 1 point win 6/1 William Hill

 

Cheltenham 3.05

A small but select field of only five go to post for this year’s renewal of the 3m Cleeve Hurdle. Nicky Henderson trains the favourite in Champ who went to the top of the Stayers Hurdle market on Thursday afternoon following Klassical Dream’s disappointing effort at Gowran Park. He had Paisley Park, who won this event in 2019 and 2020, just over five lengths behind at Ascot last time and can confirm that form especially as Paisley Park would prefer much softer ground. Lisnagar Oscar looks nowhere near the horse he once was and pulled up behind Champ at Ascot and is easily dismissed today. Dandy Mag is out of his depth but McFabulous could be a danger but has to prove his stamina today. Champ is the most likely winner but can’t be backed at around the 1/2 mark.

 

Doncaster 3.20

The feature handicap of the day is the Skybet Handicap Chase run over three miles of Town Moor with seventeen chasers going to post. It has a typical open look about it with no stand out performer this season. Current favourite is the Nicky Henderson trained Fusil Raffles, who will be ridden by Sean Bowen today. A fortunate winner of the Charlie Hall he ran well at Cheltenham last time when a 4 3/4L 4th to Coole Cody over 2m 4 1/2F and will appreciate the step back up in trip today. 2 3/4L ahead of him that day was the Sue Smith trained Midnight Shadow and although he’s 2lb worse off here and there is a trip doubt I can’t see why there should be such a difference in their current respective odds. The only time that Sue Smiths nine year old raced over three miles was over hurdles on this card three years ago in the Cleeve Hurdle when well beaten (although he was severely hampered at the last costing him a few places). The horse is highly thought of by the Smith team who were talking about running him in the three mile King George after he won the 2m 4F Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November. If ever he’s going to stay three miles on a flat track like Doncaster maybe the time and he’s carry my money today each way with the firms offering additional places. A case can be made for plenty of others here including Ladbroke Trophy 5th Demachine who fell early in his only start since. Cap Du Nord and Canelo were placed in this race last year and arrive here on lower marks but both are out of form and having backed the former last time at Kempton when thinking he was so well handicapped will be annoyed we’re he to win this. 

MIDNIGHT SHADOW 1 1/2 points each way @ 10/1 1/5^th 123456 William Hill

 

Cheltenham 3.40

Another small field - six this time assemble for the 2m 4 1/2F Ballymore Novices Hurdle. Hillcrest has chosen to run here rather than the River Don at Doncaster although his trainer Henry Daly who is quoted that he may well be the best he’s ever trained has also stated that he could do with softer conditions. He looks an out and stayer and with a 5lb penalty may be vulnerable to a speedier type. The obvious one is the Nicky Henderson trained Balco Coastal who’s looked a smart prospect in winning both his novice hurdles this season at Huntingdon and Ludlow. Henderson has a plethora of decent novices this season and he ranks highly amongst them. Alan King’s North Lodge won at Aintree in December on his racecourse debut in a race that’s worked out well but the King stable are currently 32 days and 44 runners since their last NH winner so is overlooked. 

BALCO COASTAL 1 point win @ 15/8 William Hill

 

[black rabbit]

janika   3 20  don  1/4 pt  win      25/1 

severance   12 15 chelt  1/4 pt win 10/1 

P/L      +  116 pts    

Edited January 29, 2022 by black rabbit

[Wildgarden]

Cheltenham special all bsp (betfair exchange)

1245 pied piper 

120 when your ready

155 torn and frayed and magic saint

230 aye right

305 champ

340 balco coastal

 

Edited January 29, 2022 by Wildgarden

[Wildgarden]

140 fairyhouse dutch bet on brandy love and allegorie de vassy who both have more hurdle experience and wins under belt so value in my eyes. 2.62 brandy and  3.95 alle, so £60 on brandy £40 on alle makes the dutch.

[fd1972uk]

20 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

Festival Trials day at Cheltenham plus Skybet Handicap Chase day at Doncaster makes for a decent afternoons racing with ITV showing seven races. The ground at both tracks is an unseasonable good and won’t suit the out and out mudlarks

 

Cheltenham 1.55

A competitive looking 2m 4F 127yds handicap chase with the market headed by the Paul Nicholls trained top weight Magic Saint who will be ridden by 5lb conditional jockey Tom Buckley. He has an obvious chance on his favoured good ground and should be thereabouts. The other market leader is Venetia Williams’ Farinet who would have been a strong fancy on soft ground but with the ground drying all the time is over looked today. The pair of them take a fair chunk out of the market at around 5/4 the pair and I think it’s worth looking elsewhere for some value. Nick William’s Galahad Quest has a shout on his course form this season including when just under three lengths behind Magic Saint last time but I’ll take an each way chance with the firms paying the additional 4th place with Milton Harris’s Jacamar. Lightly raced over fences, this will be only his fifth outing over the larger obstacles, he came good at Kempton last time out and a 3lb rise may not enough to halt this seven year old who will be ridden by Paddy Brennan. 

JACAMAR 1 point each way @ 10/1 Ladbrokes/Coral 1/5 123

 

Doncaster 2.10

Five mares assemble here for the Yorkshire Rose Mares Hurdle, a grade 2 event run over two miles. Warm favourite and most likely winner is the Paul Nicholls trained Miranda who has to shoulder a 6lb penalty for her victory in this contest this last year from Floressa. She arrives in decent form having won a Ludlow handicap hurdle last time out off of top weight. She’ll be hard to beat. Western Victory had her first outing for Emma Lavelle at Ascot a week ago and went off far too hard - surely she’s better than that whilst Anna Bunina comes over from Ireland with a chance but this should really be going back to Ditcheat and the Bryony Frost ridden Miranda. 

MIRANDA 3 points win @ 10/11 BetVictor

 

Cheltenham 2.30

Favourites have a shocking record in this Cotswold Chase run over 3m 1 1/2F of the new course today. Just one favourite in the last 23 years has obliged (Santini in 2020 at 13/8) and this years renewal has a short priced favourite in the Nicky Henderson trained Chantry House. He could quite easily be far too good for these but was bitterly disappointing at Kempton in the King George at Kempton over Christmas when his trainer stated that he simply didn’t handle the track. He has a 4lb penalty to carry today and even on official ratings doesn’t come out as the best horse in the race. I’m happy to leave him alone today. The other horse that carries a 4lb penalty is Aye Right trained in Scotland by Harriet Graham who comes here on the back of a career best win at Newcastle in the Rehearsal Handicap Chase in November. He has a chance but may just lack the class to win this. Kauto Riko looks out of his depth with 2020 winner Santino who is now trained down in Somerset by Polly Gundry not the force of old when trained by Nicky Henderson. That leaves us with the Paul Nicholls trained Simply The Betts who could well be the one to be on here. He has to prove his stamina as he pulled up on his only try at this trip at Aintree last December but the ground was very soft that day and he’s worth a wager back on better ground. 

SIMPLY THE BETTS 1 point win @ 10/3 William Hill

 

Doncaster 2.45

A sub standard grade 2 River Don Novices’ Hurdle run over three miles has attracted seven staying hurdlers. All seven have a chance of sorts. Chris Gordon’s Unanswered Prayers heads the market currently following his Wincanton victory earlier in the month over 2m 5 1/2F and should appreciate the longer distance today. Sandy Thomson runs his Coolbane Boy, a three mile handicap hurdle winner at Musselburgh on New Years Day and although he’s only won two of his twelve career starts should be competitive. The Irish raider is the John McConnell trained Mahler Mission who impressed when making all to win a 2m 4F novice hurdle at Sedgefield a fortnight ago. He sports a first time tongue tie today which may eek further improvement out of him. His shrewd trainer has a 33% strike rate with his hurdlers in the country over the last five years and stepping up in trip here should suit. In a tough contest I’ll take him to small stakes. 

MAHLER MISSION 1 point win 6/1 William Hill

 

Cheltenham 3.05

A small but select field of only five go to post for this year’s renewal of the 3m Cleeve Hurdle. Nicky Henderson trains the favourite in Champ who went to the top of the Stayers Hurdle market on Thursday afternoon following Klassical Dream’s disappointing effort at Gowran Park. He had Paisley Park, who won this event in 2019 and 2020, just over five lengths behind at Ascot last time and can confirm that form especially as Paisley Park would prefer much softer ground. Lisnagar Oscar looks nowhere near the horse he once was and pulled up behind Champ at Ascot and is easily dismissed today. Dandy Mag is out of his depth but McFabulous could be a danger but has to prove his stamina today. Champ is the most likely winner but can’t be backed at around the 1/2 mark.

 

Doncaster 3.20

The feature handicap of the day is the Skybet Handicap Chase run over three miles of Town Moor with seventeen chasers going to post. It has a typical open look about it with no stand out performer this season. Current favourite is the Nicky Henderson trained Fusil Raffles, who will be ridden by Sean Bowen today. A fortunate winner of the Charlie Hall he ran well at Cheltenham last time when a 4 3/4L 4th to Coole Cody over 2m 4 1/2F and will appreciate the step back up in trip today. 2 3/4L ahead of him that day was the Sue Smith trained Midnight Shadow and although he’s 2lb worse off here and there is a trip doubt I can’t see why there should be such a difference in their current respective odds. The only time that Sue Smiths nine year old raced over three miles was over hurdles on this card three years ago in the Cleeve Hurdle when well beaten (although he was severely hampered at the last costing him a few places). The horse is highly thought of by the Smith team who were talking about running him in the three mile King George after he won the 2m 4F Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November. If ever he’s going to stay three miles on a flat track like Doncaster maybe the time and he’s carry my money today each way with the firms offering additional places. A case can be made for plenty of others here including Ladbroke Trophy 5th Demachine who fell early in his only start since. Cap Du Nord and Canelo were placed in this race last year and arrive here on lower marks but both are out of form and having backed the former last time at Kempton when thinking he was so well handicapped will be annoyed we’re he to win this. 

MIDNIGHT SHADOW 1 1/2 points each way @ 10/1 1/5^th 123456 William Hill

 

Cheltenham 3.40

Another small field - six this time assemble for the 2m 4 1/2F Ballymore Novices Hurdle. Hillcrest has chosen to run here rather than the River Don at Doncaster although his trainer Henry Daly who is quoted that he may well be the best he’s ever trained has also stated that he could do with softer conditions. He looks an out and stayer and with a 5lb penalty may be vulnerable to a speedier type. The obvious one is the Nicky Henderson trained Balco Coastal who’s looked a smart prospect in winning both his novice hurdles this season at Huntingdon and Ludlow. Henderson has a plethora of decent novices this season and he ranks highly amongst them. Alan King’s North Lodge won at Aintree in December on his racecourse debut in a race that’s worked out well but the King stable are currently 32 days and 44 runners since their last NH winner so is overlooked. 

BALCO COASTAL 1 point win @ 15/8 William Hill

 

Sorry, just asking as I'm not well versed in the betting market, what do you mean 5/4 the pair on the 1st race? 

Edited January 29, 2022 by fd1972uk

[The Brigadier]

3 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:

Sorry, just asking as I'm not well versed in the betting market, what do you mean 5/4 the pair on the 1st race? 

If you were to back both the front two (at the time) at 4/1 1nd 4/1 that equates to odds of 5/4 if either wins 

[Wildgarden]

5 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:

Sorry, just asking as I'm not well versed in the betting market, what do you mean 5/4 the pair on the 1st race? 

it will be the difference they take from the market like 60% is taken by them two.

[The Brigadier]

3 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

it will be the difference they take from the market like 60% is taken by them two.

that's correct although 4/1 equates to 20% so it would be actually 40% of the market although all irrelevant now as Farinet has just come out due to the drying ground !

[Wildgarden]

1252 lingfield rated up as no system selections 8 - alicestar currently 12.0 needs market check if gets backed in ill be on it. 2 - evening song 7.6 betfair ex and 6 - keep right on 4.8 betfair ex look strong though. 4 - one step beyond ill again market check (currently 9.2) to see if support their and do as cover if so. also worth noting evening song may have more to give pushed along early...  so defo value there imo

Edited January 29, 2022 by Wildgarden

[fd1972uk]

19 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:

that's correct although 4/1 equates to 20% so it would be actually 40% of the market although all irrelevant now as Farinet has just come out due to the drying ground !

Bollocks, that was one I chose on a moneyback offer. Took that and galahad. 

[Deauville]

Correct me but two runnners at 4/1 & 4/1 coupled = 40% which is 6/4 or am I wrong? 

[The Brigadier]

17 minutes ago, Deauville said:

Correct me but two runnners at 4/1 & 4/1 coupled = 40% which is 6/4 or am I wrong? 

Deauville you're correct sir !! apologies all 

[The Equaliser]

18 minutes ago, Deauville said:

Correct me but two runnners at 4/1 & 4/1 coupled = 40% which is 6/4 or am I wrong? 

I agree

 

[Wildgarden]

348 lingfield buraback defo worth backing betfair exchange 4.4 and place bsp as market not formed yet place top 3 as cover.

[fd1972uk]

23 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

348 lingfield buraback defo worth backing betfair exchange 4.4 and place bsp as market not formed yet place top 3 as cover.

Just cant do it with doyle on it, shes the most useless jockey when I back her. Was quite funny (well not for me) the other day looked at hooves like jagger ay 8s, noticed she was on it so left it, comes in to win, lol. 

Just dont think were a match

Edited January 29, 2022 by fd1972uk

[azzybear]

bacardys 12.00 charlies glance 12.38

[fd1972uk]

Singles moneyback

Che 1355 - Galahad Quest and Jacamar (decent chance although more because the wifes name, lol). 

All below are free bets I had (couple £ on patent to top up). 

Don 1445 couldnt separate My Bobby Dazzler and Mahlers Mission so done both on fbs. 

Treble boost 5/1

1335 don third time lucki, 1430 che chantry house and 1505 che champ

Ew double

1225 kavanaghs cross (6) and 1320 che goa lil (4)

Patent

1200 fai (4) minella escape, 1215 che (5) geromino, 1608 utt (4) Akkapenko 

 

Also US race night at Tampa tonight on last 6 races. Still to pick horses though. 

[Wildgarden]

12 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:

Just cant do it with doyle on it, shes the most useless jockey when I back her. Was quite funny (well not for me) the other day looked at hooves like jagger ay 8s, noticed she was on it so left it, comes in to win, lol. 

Just dont this were a match

yeah but buraback didnt get chance last race now has its day to win again. i dont back hollie outright cos unprofitable but she does have a lot of rides and this is better one.

[MCLARKE]

10 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:

ust cant do it with doyle on it, shes the most useless jockey when I back her. Was quite funny (well not for me) the other day looked at hooves like jagger ay 8s, noticed she was on it so left it, comes in to win, lol. 

Yep, I always get a sinking feeling when I see my horse is ridden by a female jockey, my woke daughters role their eyes when I mention this !

I must admit I don't have any data to back this up, I'll have to trawl through my data to see what I can find. 

I do remember reading that female jockeys are actually good value because they are under bet as most punters are old sexist dinosaurs like myself !

[Wildgarden]

4 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Yep, I always get a sinking feeling when I see my horse is ridden by a female jockey, my woke daughters role their eyes when I mention this !

I must admit I don't have any data to back this up, I'll have to trawl through my data to see what I can find. 

I do remember reading that female jockeys are actually good value because they are under bet as most punters are old sexist dinosaurs like myself !

laura pearson seems to get some good rides i back her often but others up and down. jockeying isnt such a muscle contest like tennis or football but more stamina skill and endurance so maybe its closer than you think.

Edited January 29, 2022 by Wildgarden

[MCLARKE]

NH selection

Cheltenham 3.05

CHAMP 4/7

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Kempton 7.05

RED FLYER 11/2

[MCLARKE]

BET365 4/1 Offer

CHEL

1.55

Torn And Frayed

5.00

[The Equaliser]

My Trixie today is:

12.45 Chel Iceo 13/8

3.40 Chel Hillcrest 6/5

6.30 Km Imperium 11/8 (Oceanline fav but I think that Imperium will beat it this time)

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return 30.95 points

Singles:

12.45 Chelt Interne De Sivola 1 pt win at 6/1

2.30 Chelt Aye RIght 1 pi win at 5/1 (on case Chantry House slips up)

Total stakes = 6 points

I have napped Champ in the 3.05 at Cheltenham.  I haven't backed it but felt necessary to nap it to stay in the Most Winners Comp

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chose the wrong main contender in the opener of my Trixie and Pied Piper came home a well deserving favourite

3.40 Chelt Hillcrest 3.10 pts win = poss return of 7.17 points.

9.10 staked in total

I won't try to recoup losses on Imperium if any of the above loses; I will just take the hit.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2022 by The Equaliser
update

[Wildgarden]

2 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

1252 lingfield rated up as no system selections 8 - alicestar currently 12.0 needs market check if gets backed in ill be on it. 2 - evening song 7.6 betfair ex and 6 - keep right on 4.8 betfair ex look strong though. 4 - one step beyond ill again market check (currently 9.2) to see if support their and do as cover if so. also worth noting evening song may have more to give pushed along early...  so defo value there imo

cover on one step beyond 7.2

[Wildgarden]

2 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

1252 lingfield rated up as no system selections 8 - alicestar currently 12.0 needs market check if gets backed in ill be on it. 2 - evening song 7.6 betfair ex and 6 - keep right on 4.8 betfair ex look strong though. 4 - one step beyond ill again market check (currently 9.2) to see if support their and do as cover if so. also worth noting evening song may have more to give pushed along early...  so defo value there imo

no good unrated fav wins ;-( keep right on non runner -2

[yossa6133]

Poldark Cross 1:48 Uttox (5/2 SBK). Plenty of promise last time at Sedgefield, jumping well. Looks to be on a decent mark on 113 (finished 5.5L 2nd to a horse now rated 136 on hurdles debut). Looks to have a solid chance to get his first win.

 

Shocker, never travelling 

Edited January 29, 2022 by yossa6133

[azzybear]

Oscar elite 1.20 recovery bet 

[Bang on]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

Yep, I always get a sinking feeling when I see my horse is ridden by a female jockey, my woke daughters role their eyes when I mention this !

I must admit I don't have any data to back this up, I'll have to trawl through my data to see what I can find. 

I do remember reading that female jockeys are actually good value because they are under bet as most punters are old sexist dinosaurs like myself !

Probably true - personally I am a fan of Hollie Doyle, you just have to decide which ones (I'm sure she gets plenty of rides because she is a decent jockey AND the prices are not too bad) - like todays 12.52 Ling - Coase - on a reduced mark and trainer in reasonable form. -wins

[fd1972uk]

Kavanaghs cross let my ew double down, shpuld have went with headscarf lil.