harry_rag Posted March 13, 2022 Author Share Posted March 13, 2022 2 out of 5 since the last update (Grant and Felix). 81 winners from 236 bets (34.32%) for a profit of 22.64 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 13, 2022 Author Share Posted March 13, 2022 10 points on Richarlison at 13/5 Uni, 10 points on Bamford at 2.72 and Raphina at 3.3, 10 points on Che Adams at 2.76 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 13, 2022 Author Share Posted March 13, 2022 0 out of 4 and back in the red, lets see if the Arsenal front 3 can do any better! 10 points each on Lacazette at 7/5 Lads, Saka at 12/5 PP and Martinelli at 3.05. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 14, 2022 Author Share Posted March 14, 2022 1 from 7 yesterday (Lacazette) 82 winners from 243 bets (33.74%) for a loss of 23.36 points. I might re-name this the Hokey Cokey system given how frequently it keeps going in and out of profit! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 14, 2022 Author Share Posted March 14, 2022 10 points on Foden at 3.15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 15, 2022 Author Share Posted March 15, 2022 10 points on Ronaldo at 19/10 Lads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 15, 2022 Author Share Posted March 15, 2022 10 points on Tadic at 2.58 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 16, 2022 Author Share Posted March 16, 2022 On 3/14/2022 at 8:02 PM, harry_rag said: 10 points on Foden at 3.15 Actually only a partial match for just 0.51 points, the highlight of the last few days! 82 winners from 246 bets (33.33%) for a loss of 43.87 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 0-0's are always the enemy of goalscorer bets, obviously. Maybe you could find a way to try to filter out games with a higher chance of no goals - or maybe it won't make any difference as those games have the higher chance of no goals factored into the goalscorer odds. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 16, 2022 Author Share Posted March 16, 2022 53 minutes ago, Torque said: 0-0's are always the enemy of goalscorer bets, obviously. Maybe you could find a way to try to filter out games with a higher chance of no goals - or maybe it won't make any difference as those games have the higher chance of no goals factored into the goalscorer odds. With hindsight it's a shame I didn't record the total goals expectation for each game as I could have done some analysis then. I suspect you're right though, my understanding is that most of the big firms use the same service to set their odds and (to simplify it quite a bit) they'd establish what % of his team's goals a player scores and apply that to the goals expectation for a game. I should perhaps take a closer look at profitability by price though (e.g. it might suggest raising the minimum I back at). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 16, 2022 Author Share Posted March 16, 2022 10 points on Malen (Dortmund) at 5/2 Lads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 16, 2022 Author Share Posted March 16, 2022 2 in the CL games. 10 points each on Havertz at 3.3 and Vlahovic at 3. Time to try the age-old technique of bemoaning my recent fortune to moan home a winner! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 17, 2022 Author Share Posted March 17, 2022 10 points on Morelos (Rangers) at 3.35 and Diaby (Leverkusen) at 3.55 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 18, 2022 Author Share Posted March 18, 2022 10 points on Defrel (Sassuolo) at 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 18, 2022 Author Share Posted March 18, 2022 10 points on Polter (Bochum) at 3.25. Â Has drifted to 3,4 since. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 18, 2022 Author Share Posted March 18, 2022 10 points on Jimenez (Wolves) at 21/10 with Lads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 19, 2022 Author Share Posted March 19, 2022 0 from 7 since the last update (Polter was void as the game was abandoned). 82 winners from 253 bets (32.41%) for a loss of 113.87 points. 14 potential bets in that time (as opposed to 7 I got matched on) with 3 scoring. So a lower than average strike rate overall and (perhaps) a bit of bad luck with who I did and didn't get matched on. Might be time to get my head back under the bonnet though nothing that 5 or 6 consecutive winners wouldn't fix! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 19, 2022 Author Share Posted March 19, 2022 10 points on Lacazette at 3.35 and 10 on Godden (Coventry) at 13/5 PP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 19, 2022 Author Share Posted March 19, 2022 10 points on Sane (Bayern) at 11/5 Lads and matched for 4.2 points each on the Inter front 2, Martinez at 2.38 and Dzeko at 3.1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 19, 2022 Author Share Posted March 19, 2022 10 points on Budimir (Osasuna) at 12/5 Lads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 20, 2022 Author Share Posted March 20, 2022 2 from 6 since the last update (Godden and Budimir). 84Â winners from 259Â bets (32.43%) for a loss of 92.27Â points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 20, 2022 Author Share Posted March 20, 2022 10 points on Iheanacho at 3.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 20, 2022 Author Share Posted March 20, 2022 23 minutes ago, harry_rag said: 10 points on Iheanacho at 3.5 Scratch that; not a qualifier (I anticipated SX's price before it was up and it's a point too low for this to be a potential selection). I'm on it anyway and still feel it's an good price but not a bet for the purposes of this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 21, 2022 Author Share Posted March 21, 2022 Been looking at the data (1201 players in the sample now) and making a change to the base number used for calculating true odds. Using the spreads midpoint the fair odds are running at -33.64 points with an ROI of -2.78% and the target back odds are running at +83.79 points with an ROI of 6.93%. I'm going to switch to using the sell price as I believe that is a more accurate number (not least based on my experience as a seller in this and other markets). The return to fair odds would be -3.84 points with an ROI of -0.32% and, to target odds, +93.23 points with an ROI of 7.76%. I'm sticking with the approach I adopted of factoring the fixed odds price into the the target odds and there will now be just a single target price rather than, as has their has been for a while, 2 where I aim for the higher one but will accept the lower. Evolution rather than revolution but it's a logical change and simplifies the recording of and execution of the bets. Whether it makes much change to the bottom line remains to be seen! vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 24, 2022 Author Share Posted March 24, 2022 10 points on Jota at 2.88, 10 points on Bale at 3.35, 3.6 points on Beradi at 3.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 25, 2022 Author Share Posted March 25, 2022 2 from 3 and the part-matched Beradi the only loser. 86Â winners from 262Â bets (32.82%) for a loss of 54.36Â points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 29, 2022 Author Share Posted March 29, 2022 10 points on Watkins (England) at 2,88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 Watkins obliges. 87Â winners from 263Â bets (33.08%) for a loss of 35.94Â points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 1, 2022 Author Share Posted April 1, 2022 10 points on Awoniyi (U Berlin) at 11/5 Lads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 2, 2022 Author Share Posted April 2, 2022 10 points on Firmino at 2.76 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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