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2020 European Championship Group D Predictions


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50 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I’ll be having a look shortly when I recover from jet lag after travelling home from the Fylde coast! McGinn certainly appeals, I think the RP have tipped him for this game and flagged him as the Scottish “card magnet” pre tournament.

Much as I admire @Labrador finding a sneaky angle to eke out a bit more value I’m sure I might be able to find some obscure way to get even better terms! ;) 

 

Looking forward to you finding a market on the number of times Southgate strokes his beard on camera or how many times the ball connects with Mings' right boot ? .

Have also bought cross bookings at 320 with Spreadex (i.e. England's bookings points multiplied by Scotland's bookings points). Spanish refs notoriously are more lenient away from La Liga but tonight that trend could be undone.

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3 hours ago, Labrador said:

If (like me) you feel that John McGinn may fall foul of the Spanish referee, it may be worth considering a buy of his card minutes. Spreadex are 20 to buy and Sporting Index 19. However, if you check out SPIN's John McGinn's Specials, then his card mins are only 17 to buy. [If Grealish plays, I expect McGinn to be even more fired up].

I’m sufficiently sold to have bought! 1.5 points at 17 with SPIN.

The downside of this bet v fixed odds is you win less if he gets booked for an early “reducer”, the upside is the double you get for time of a red card.

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53 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Cards interest for me in the other game in the group. 12 points on Lovren to be booked at 9/2 with 365 and 12 on Vida shown a card at 5.3 on BF. Buy Czech Rep bookings hotshots for 2 points at 19 with SPIN (25 points per yellow and 50 per red for Soucek, Coufal, Darida and Boril).

 

Lovren obliges after 35 mins? .

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2 hours ago, Labrador said:

Looking forward to you finding a market on the number of times Southgate strokes his beard on camera or how many times the ball connects with Mings' right boot ? .

Be surprised if anyone’s priced it but keep an eye out for total McCoist “absolutelys” tonight. He managed a few in his last co-commentary game but not as many as his previous outing, almost as if someone had a word with him. Given the occasion I suspect he won’t be able to keep the cork in tonight and Rag-Ex would be going 11.5-12.5. Buyers of multi-absolutelys could be in clover by the break but anyone using it as the basis for a drinking game might not see the second half.

On a less frivolous note I’m following the other RP tips, both of which seem well reasoned enough and are available at better than the advised odds.

12 points on O’Donnell to be shown a card at 21/4 with Uni (tipped at 7/2)

6 points on a Robertson assist at 12/1 with Hills (tipped at 9/1)

The former’s card minutes are 11 to buy but I’m sure I saw 8 earlier. I might have favoured the spreads at 8. The latter’s assist minutes can be bought at 4 which is pretty much a coin toss v 12/1 if you don’t mind risking whether it comes early or late.

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1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

Be surprised if anyone’s priced it but keep an eye out for total McCoist “absolutelys” tonight. He managed a few in his last co-commentary game but not as many as his previous outing, almost as if someone had a word with him. Given the occasion I suspect he won’t be able to keep the cork in tonight and Rag-Ex would be going 11.5-12.5. Buyers of multi-absolutelys could be in clover by the break but anyone using it as the basis for a drinking game might not see the second half

Also Brilliant. Could be on the floor by half time the amount he says that :lol

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5 hours ago, waynecoyne said:

southgates's negative approach and incompetence could also be a cunning plan to come second for an easier passage

That easier passage means probably France in the quarters and Belgium in the Semi. I think I’d sooner win the group and get put out of the pain by Portugal or Germany again.

Why did we only make 2 Subs all night. Starting to think we have players that look very good players playing for Club sides with excellent foreign players but are really average. Not sure why they can’t run though. Sterling lasted 90 minutes, how? Apart from receiving 1 brilliant pass from a novice in the team who stupidly committed to beat a couple of players and pass the ball forward, Sterling has done little to suggest he is a world beater.

Still we could still finish 3rd in the group and enter the lottery to play someone.

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I'm not sure why England fans booed their team at full time yesterday. Scotland put inone of the displays of the tournament last night. Two games unbeaten that were big potential banama skins and two clean sheets.

Not sure if they got the memo but international is hard these days. No game is a given. No tournament is won in the group stages.

I do agree that Southgate might well be a cracking man manager but he's tactically inferior to a lot of head coaches at this tournament. The team needs the support of the fans though. Otherwise you're screwed.

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I thought Kane looked lethargic during the first game. He is either not fully fit or his mind is fixated on his multi-million pound move from Spurs. Sterling was decent against Croatia with an instinctive finish before typically fluffing an easier chance when he had time to think. Agree totally with Alley Cat that Sterling should have been substituted early last night along with Kane. Could not believe Southgate took Foden off instead of Phillips.

In some defence of Kane and Sterling they had little service from an unadventurous midfield. Why was Kalvin Phillips not making any forward runs? It was tedious and ponderous - hence the booing. As often with England our players had been instructed to negate whatever qualities the opposition may have had rather than simply express our own superior abilities.

Pity Ollie Watkins did not make the final line up - he is on the same wavelength as Grealish. 

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15 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Are you sure? Unsurprisingly, they don't seem to be anywhere near that price, more like 5/4 ish in accordance with their double chance price v England.

page 163

it says the czechs were last night 4/1 with b365 to win group D after drawing 1-1 with croatia

so i guess they mean before the england scotland game 

which is a stupid headline (sorry for not reading it properly) @harry_rag 

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31 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Are you sure? Unsurprisingly, they don't seem to be anywhere near that price, more like 5/4 ish in accordance with their double chance price v England.

Might as well do the match draw at 11/5 with Bet 365 you get the same result why is the other 5/4? I suppose they could beat us as well, 6/1 seems generous not sure where you go with it. Does anyone want to win the group?

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31 minutes ago, waynecoyne said:

it says the czechs were last night 4/1 with b365 to win group D after drawing 1-1 with croatia

so i guess they mean before the england scotland game 

Yeah, I guess that was the price factoring in us failing to beat the Scots and the Czechs so halfway there now!

So if you think we might struggle to win the last game you can take the best price for either Czechs to win the group or double chance, as they're essentially the same outcome.

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Czech Republic vs England

Although their form ahead of EURO 2020 wasn’t too promising, the Czech Republic tops Group D. Despite having the same number of points as their upcoming rivals, they scored more goals than England. Jaroslav Silhavy’s side opened the campaign with a vital 2:0 victory over Scotland. It was followed by a 1:1 draw against Croatia, although it seemed the Czech Republic is closer to another win. Patrik Schick is on fire after scoring all three goals for his team in EURO 2020, and he will be a significant threat to the Three Lions. The Czech Republic raised its form in the perfect moment, and they scored in their last three games. A point from this match would see them finishing the group stage at the top spot.

England enjoyed a successful start, as they beat Croatia thanks to Raheem Sterling’s winner. However, when everybody expected Gareth Southgate’s side to keep up where they left off, they booked a goalless draw against Scotland. Although they were dominant in the battle of Britain, Harry Kane and the lads couldn’t crack a disciplined Scottish side. The Three Lions have been unbeatable in the back lately, as they kept the clean sheet in the last four games. However, their finishing hasn’t been excellent, as England failed to score more than a goal on the previous four occasions. They need to get back on the winning ways to secure a pole position in Group D.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction

Bookies consider England as a firm favorite, but they won’t have an easy job at all. The Czech Republic is a pretty dangerous team, and they already beat England in 2019. Keeping in mind that England hasn’t been too productive, we don’t think the Czech will lose by more than one goal. If you are brave enough, you might even go with a draw or the Czech Republic AH +0.5, at least.

Goals Market Prediction

England’s last four games remained under a 1.5 margin due to their excellent defense and poor finishing. We expect another tight clash in which the crowd shouldn’t see more than two goals in total.

Czech Republic AH +1.25 @ 1.60 

BTTS Yes @ 2.20 

Correct score 1:1 @ 7.50

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Croatia vs Scotland

Vatreni are one of the biggest underachievers in EURO 2020, as they booked only a point from the first two matches. Therefore, the narrow 1:0 defeat against England is not too surprising, but they could have put a better performance. Furthermore, Zlatko Dalic’s side failed to pick up three points against the Czech Republic as well, as they drew 1:1. Croatia is on a slight decline lately, as they also barely survived in the UEFA Nations League top division. Luka Modric and the lads haven’t tasted a win four times in a row, and they need to break that poor streak to remain in the tournament. Although they have been pretty solid in the back, Croatia needs to improve its finishing in this game.

Scotland didn’t have a good time at Hampden Park in their first match in EURO 2020, as they lost to the Czech Republic 2:0. After that, however, Steve Clarke’s side fought for a goalless draw against England that kept their chances of progressing further. That could be a massive boost of confidence for the hosts to book a victory here and advance to the eight-finals for the first time. However, Che Adams and the lads need to start scoring since they are still searching for the first goal in the tournament. Scotland has been defensively solid lately, but finishing is their central pain point at the moment. The hosts need to put their best performance so far and achieve their best accomplishment in their history of major tournaments.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction

It is going to be a tight clash, and both sides will go for a win in this one. On the other hand, a draw doesn’t suit either team, and we think it’s the least likely outcome. Croatia is more experienced in these matches, and we believe they will celebrate a vital victory.

Goals Market Prediction

Both teams haven’t been clinical in front of the oppositions’ net, while their defenses perform a pretty good job. We shouldn’t expect to see many goals, like was the case in their all five head-to-head clashes. Therefore, this match should remain under a 2.5 margin.

Croatia to Win @ 2.10 

Under 2.5 FT @ 1.80 

Correct score 1:0 @ 8.00

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Croatia vs Scotland

The final round of matches in Group D take place on Tuesday evening as last 16 spaces remain up for grabs. Croatia take on Scotland in this 8pm BST kick-off and it's a simple case of winner-takes-all here. We now know that 4 points would be enough to qualify for the last 16 and with both of these teams on 1 point at the moment the opportunity is there. Or they could draw and both suffer elimination. Wow, that would create a depressing atmosphere at Hampden Park!

Croatia have fallen flat in this tournament so far. An underwhelming display in a 1-0 loss to England in their opening game was followed by a 1-1 draw with Czech Republic in a game you could argue they should well have lost. It's hard to believe that this is the same Croatia team that reached the 2018 World Cup minus a couple of players but it does make you realise how key Mario Mandzukic and Ivan Rakitic were plus Luka Modric being a few years younger. History could give us a clue as to what could happen here. Croatia have participated in 5 European Championships and have alternated between qualifying from the group stage (1996, 2008, and 2016) and not qualifying (2004 and 2012). Not that failure to qualify would guarantee Scotland's progress mind!

Scotland can be proud of their tournament performances so far. The opening game 2-0 loss at home to Czech Republic was disappointing but the performance was worthy of more than that result. Then came the encouraging 0-0 draw away with England in their second game. Let's be honest, Scotland were unfortunate to not win that game. There is bad news coming out of the Scottish camp though. Breakthrough starlet Billy Gilmour has been ruled out of this clash due to testing positive for covid-19. On the plus side, he appears to be the only victim with all other players and staff testing negative. There is plenty for Scotland fans to be positive about though. Scotland have never suffered defeat to Croatia earning 2 wins and 3 draws. The Tartan Army have also only lost 1 of their last 9 matches at Hampden Park. However, Scotland have never navigated their way past the group stage at a major international tournament in 10 attempts.

I would love to see Scotland reach the last 16 of this tournament. Scotland holds a very close place to my heart with ancestors being Scottish and Edinburgh being the place where I got engaged. Unfortunately, I just think there's too much for them to do here. If Gilmour was available I would genuinely fancy them to win but I think the combination of him missing and the Scottish strikers failing to score despite having 30 shots on goal means I can see Croatia nicking this one by the odd goal.

Croatia to Win @ 2.38 with William Hill

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.94 with SBK

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Czech Republic vs England

The second preview for the final round of games in Group D is the 8pm BST kick-off between Czech Republic and England at Wembley Stadium on Tuesday night. Both of these teams have already secured their places in the last 16 after results last night meant 4 points is enough to qualify for third placed teams. Can either team secure a win here to finish outright top of this group?

Czech Republic have had a season to remember so far. The smash and grab 2-0 win over Scotland in the opening game was a commendable result given the intimidating atmosphere created by the Hampden Park crowd. A 1-1 draw with Croatia in that second game for Jaroslav Silhavy's men really could have ended up being a second win a row but Croatia defended well. Patrik Schick has been the star man grabbing 3 goals in his 2 matches so far but the whole Czech side has delivered performances that show exactly why they are heading into the knockout phase. This is a tournament that Czech Republic do love though having reached the final in 1996 and the semi-final in 2004.

England haven't really impressed so far but they are getting the job done. Qualification for the last 16 with a game to spare is a situation a lot of teams would envy. The 1-0 win over Croatia was a job done and the 0-0 draw with Scotland avoided the possible banana skin that fixture could have delivered. Gareth Southgate has been unfairly criticised by some fans so it'll be interesting to see how they approach this game. The Three Lions could keep clean sheets in all their group stage matches at a major international tournament for just the third time having previously done so at the 1966 World Cup and the 1982 World Cup. Raheem Sterling could be a player to watch if he starts because he scored a hat trick against Czech Republic when they won 5-0 back in March 2019 at Wembley Stadium. Harry Kane has also scored in both of his last two appearances against Czech Republic but both goals were penalties.

I think this is a chance for England to really starts stretching their legs. Czech Republic are a solid team but there's no doubt these games are ones that England should be winning. I wouldn't be surprised if Southgate rested a couple of players. Mason Mount and Ben Chilwell have already likely been ruled out due to isolating after Billy Gilmour tested positive for covid-19. Will Southgate opt to start the likes of Kane, Sterling, and Phil Foden if he wants to keep them 100% for the last 16? Personally, I think we'll see England go for the win here and no matter who they start that's what they should be aiming to do.

England to Win to Nil @ 2.21 with VBet

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.75 with Novibet

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Croatia v Scotland:

20 points on >40 booking points at 6/4 PP

20 points on >4.5 cards at 7/4 Uni

10 points on >5.5 cards at 4/1 PP

12 points on >2 cards for each team at 6/1 Hills (using a 5 point free bet)

The spreads have this at 40-44 points so the fixed odds prices offer the better value (though if it really kicks off then a buy would look the better choice). It's a must win game that is, intriguingly for me at least, officiated by an Argentinian referee. Happy to bet on cards in this one at prices that strike me as offering value.

I've also had 10 points on Robertson to get an assist at 7/1 with Uni. Giving him another chance in that market.

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I read online that Mount and Chilwell will be ineligible until next tuesday.

England's next game will be on monday if they finish second and tuesday if they win the group or finish as a high ranking 3rd placed team.

So there is an incentive to win the group as they will have more players available.

You would think they will be trying to win anyway after the last performance.

Not sure what use this is but i thought it interesting.

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It's an added dimension. I'd expect them to want to win and put on a better showing anyway. No harm in having more players but I think the extra day's rest is probably worth even more. I expect them to win but don't really see any huge value angle for betting on it. Stones goal for an interest maybe, Schick at 4/1 + to score is tempting. I've just remembered I was going to take a closer look at Czech corner prices, see if they can do a North Macedonia!

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Not liking the corners angle; request up for Schick. On these so far.

6 points on Stones to score at 12/1 PP

12 points on a Kane assist at 23/4 Uni

Hoping for a better performance from Kane, not expecting him to pass when a shot's on but if he's a bit more involved I don't feel his assist price should be quite that big. Assuming it's not all free-flowing football ripping the Czechs to shreds then I think set pieces will play their part and I should get a fair run for my money on Stones.

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3 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Croatia v Scotland:

20 points on >40 booking points at 6/4 PP

20 points on >4.5 cards at 7/4 Uni

10 points on >5.5 cards at 4/1 PP

12 points on >2 cards for each team at 6/1 Hills (using a 5 point free bet)

The spreads have this at 40-44 points so the fixed odds prices offer the better value (though if it really kicks off then a buy would look the better choice). It's a must win game that is, intriguingly for me at least, officiated by an Argentinian referee. Happy to bet on cards in this one at prices that strike me as offering value.

.............................

 

Have to agree about bookings with the desperate and fired up Scots urged on by a home crowd, the sometimes cynical Croats and an Argentinian referee. Fernandes Rapallini has little international experience with only 6 matches over the last couple of years and 50% of those being Under 20's matches. In this calendar year he had make ups of 120, 150 and 130 in January and February. 

In case things do get tasty I've decided to go with the spreads with a simple buy of bookings at 44 (Spreadex). Senor Rapallini never seems to show less than 3 yellows per game so I think it's worth chancing that he exceeds the buy price - perhaps by some margin!

[As an aside, I cannot understand why Mount and Chilwell should self-isolate when nobody in the Scotland squad has the same order. Who is Billy Gilmour's roommate? Who sits by him at the team mealtimes and tactics briefings etc etc. The coronavirus rules become ever more ludicrous and unnecessary].

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2 minutes ago, Labrador said:

[As an aside, I cannot understand why Mount and Chilwell should self-isolate when nobody in the Scotland squad has the same order. Who is Billy Gilmour's roommate? Who sits by him at the team mealtimes and tactics briefings etc etc. The coronavirus rules become ever more ludicrous and unnecessary].

Good point but all I can come back with is the facetious but true insight that it has brought to mind the wit and wisdom of Ellis, Beggs and Howard; Big Bubbles, No Troubles! :eyes

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14 minutes ago, Labrador said:

Fernandes Rapallini has little international experience with only 6 matches over the last couple of years and 50% of those being Under 20's matches. In this calendar year he had make ups of 120, 150 and 130 in January and February. 

He likes a penalty in those games too. No doubt he awards one tonight as I've decided the prevailing prices are a bit too short!

I also can see the appeal of the Czech Rep bookings hotshots at 19 (Soucek, Coufal, Boril and Darida) but it's a narrow swerve given there's not quite enough on the game and it's not the optimum ref appointment. Cue two of them being sent off for a punch up with each other! :)

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