Racing Chit Chat Saturday 20th March

[Alley Cat Glover]

Midlands National, going with Regal Encore 7 places with Skybet but taking the SP which I am hoping will be greater than, 50 - 1 currently offered which is not BOG seeing as several horses are being well backed. Also tried on PP at 40-1 betting without Time to get up and Screaming Colours first 4 places.

[Wanderlust]

37 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

At least at Cheltenham you know the horse will be trying to win, even if it wasn't in it's previous race.

I tend to do well at Cheltenham, mostly by taking advantage of bookmakers offers rather than form analysis.

I always go to the Grand National and it's always been very successful, usually by backing outsiders, favourites don't tend to do very well there.

Absolutely right regarding the horses trying as opposed to prepping.

The point you make about Aintree, I would just like to add, that it is quite often a horse runs at Cheltenham, has a stinker and then goes in at Aintree. Or vice versa, wins or comes close to winning at Cheltenham and then the bubble is burst at Cheltenham. THe thing to remember is that they are 2 completely different tracks and secondly some horses have very hard races at Cheltenham or indeed finish out the back as they have met with interference and are as fresh as a daisy.

For example Zanahiyr and Tritonic, I would back at Aintree if they go, neither over exerting themselves. On the other hand 2 horses I would avoid are Shan Blue and Third Time Lukki who, in my opinion had very hard races at Cheltenham.

Thats another advantage of being at the course, seeing just how much a horse is blowing after the race

[Villa Chris]

8 minutes ago, Wanderlust said:

Absolutely right regarding the horses trying as opposed to prepping.

The point you make about Aintree, I would just like to add, that it is quite often a horse runs at Cheltenham, has a stinker and then goes in at Aintree. Or vice versa, wins or comes close to winning at Cheltenham and then the bubble is burst at Cheltenham. THe thing to remember is that they are 2 completely different tracks and secondly some horses have very hard races at Cheltenham or indeed finish out the back as they have met with interference and are as fresh as a daisy.

For example Zanahiyr and Tritonic, I would back at Aintree if they go, neither over exerting themselves. On the other hand 2 horses I would avoid are Shan Blue and Third Time Lukki who, in my opinion had very hard races at Cheltenham.

Thats another advantage of being at the course, seeing just how much a horse is blowing after the race

As a rule I never back a horse at Aintree that either won or went close to winning at Cheltenham, especially older horses. I’m shocked Mullins ran kemboy at Cheltenham as I think he’s much better at a course like Aintree. 

[Wanderlust]

7 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

As a rule I never back a horse at Aintree that either won or went close to winning at Cheltenham, especially older horses. I’m shocked Mullins ran kemboy at Cheltenham as I think he’s much better at a course like Aintree. 

I bet you wouldn't turn down Shishkin, if it was any sort of price?

[Villa Chris]

17 minutes ago, Wanderlust said:

I bet you wouldn't turn down Shishkin, if it was any sort of price?

True that. I’d say younger horses have a better chance of doing the double. Not sure what the prize money is like at Aintree . 

[Tedthewolf]

E/W lucky 15  first 4 race at uttoxeter with betfair sports book to watch on the telly!

solstice star 16/1

young wolf 16/1

illegal model 8/1

prime venture 16/1 

[Wanderlust]

15 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

True that. I’d say younger horses have a better chance of doing the double. Not sure what the prize money is like at Aintree . 

Decent money. Can't remember what the Grade 1 Novices chase pays out. I am sure it is 60-70k, for 1st.... something like that

[Hotspur88]

4 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

13.50 Uttoxeter - Saint Dalina 5/1 win (money back on Skybet if it finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th up to stake of £10) £10 stake = £60 returns + £5 extra stake on William Hill at 5/1 with £5 free bet = £25 returns (£85 returns total)

15.00 Uttoxeter - Wilde About Oscar 7/2 win (placed on bet365 for BOG) £10 stake = £45 returns

15.35 Uttoxeter - Captain Drake 12/1 e/w & The Two Amigos 16/1 e/w (placed on Skybet as paying 7 places) £5 e/w stake on both = £82 & £106 return

Nice start to the day and first selection on the forum with Saint Dalina winning at 5/1. I was between that and Wilde About Oscar for my NAP selection but went with the other so hopefully that still wins. 

[Wildgarden]

5 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

105 fontwell fally Jem 10.0 betdaq dead last!

210 fontwell test a ride 12.5 betdaq 2nd!

 

Edited March 20, 2021 by Wildgarden

[The Equaliser]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

12.30 Font Sambezi £7 win at 2.54; Lavante £1 win at 15/2 & John Betjeman £1 wi at 11/1.  This assumes that Forever Des Long doesn't win but hey you can't cover all angles can you?

2.25 Uttx 4 live contenders.  The morning show highlights St Bart's for Timeform.  I thought they wrote 139p, my web page shows 148p.  This has drifted a bit in the betting and Eclair Surf has come in for support.  No angle for me so I'll pass

3.35 Uttx Time To Get Up.  Have put in a £3 win bet at 5.1 um at 4.1.  I have had £2 win on Screaming Colours at 9.8 will pay £17.25 if it wins and Time To Get Up price doesn't get matched.

Total poss stakes so far = £15.00

I have got a few races to look at later on and I am keen to get back on track with my dutching campaign.  See you later

 

 

Sambezi won for me but only by half length which is scary.  I have cancelled my win bet on Time To Get Up because I feel that 5.1 does get matched pre-race then the horse will lose.  I'm happy to just risk £2 on Screaming Colours although it is drifting a bit now.

3.45 Newc Blakerigs £3.50 win at 10/3 = £15.16 if it wins.  £1 win on Don't Need To Know at 13/2.  I don't know what is tp be expected of Road Warrior.  It was priced up last night at between 6/4 and 2/1.  It is now easy to back at 9/2!!  Some money for Thelongwayround & Lastin Memories but I can't back them all can I?

3.50 Km Jeremy Pass and Champagne Mystery.  I would have to back Jeremy Pass if I did only one horse.  However, backing both means spending £14.50 to get less than £8 so I'll give the race a miss

4.10 Uttx The Edgar Wallace and Rookie.  I would have to risk £19 to get £10 back.  Seems like a bad bet as Interconnected could possibly take the race

4.20 Newc Contrast the previous race with this one.  Play The Piper and Mick Maestro I would have to put £16 on to get back about £8.  This is definitely a better value bet      though I don't have the botttle to do so

Four more possible races to look at with 4 main contenders but I'm a bit tired now so I may leave them unless I get stuck

 

 

 

[Hotspur88]

1 hour ago, Barnes1882 said:

Nice start to the day and first selection on the forum with Saint Dalina winning at 5/1. I was between that and Wilde About Oscar for my NAP selection but went with the other so hopefully that still wins. 

2/2 for the day with Wilde About Oscar winning @ 3/1 . This seems like a great site with genuine posters who enjoy racing so I'm looking forward to getting involved.

[MrJol]

Mighty Thunder will get the trip in the Midlands National certain winner ?

[The Equaliser]

19 minutes ago, Barnes1882 said:

2/2 for the day with Wilde About Oscar winning @ 3/1 . This seems like a great site with genuine posters who enjoy racing so I'm looking forward to getting involved.

Very well done

 

[Villa Chris]

42 minutes ago, MrJol said:

Mighty Thunder will get the trip in the Midlands National certain winner ?

Thought he had it, but the winner was always doing enough . 

[Wildgarden]

8 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

500 Wolverhampton cafe milano 14-1 paddy power

600 wolverhampon Gabriel the devil 8-1 paddy power

Cafe drifted 3rd placed. Had at 5-1 on exchnage cos of the drift. 

Gabriel 2nd not hitting the mark today.

[calva decoy]

7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

where is the @Brigadiertoday?

 

He's down the Rowley Mile pre parade ring giving his statue a good clean ?

[The Equaliser]

8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Sambezi won for me but only by half length which is scary.  I have cancelled my win bet on Time To Get Up because I feel that 5.1 does get matched pre-race then the horse will lose.  I'm happy to just risk £2 on Screaming Colours although it is drifting a bit now.

3.45 Newc Blakerigs £3.50 win at 10/3 = £15.16 if it wins.  £1 win on Don't Need To Know at 13/2.  I don't know what is tp be expected of Road Warrior.  It was priced up last night at between 6/4 and 2/1.  It is now easy to back at 9/2!!  Some money for Thelongwayround & Lastin Memories but I can't back them all can I?

3.50 Km Jeremy Pass and Champagne Mystery.  I would have to back Jeremy Pass if I did only one horse.  However, backing both means spending £14.50 to get less than £8 so I'll give the race a miss

4.10 Uttx The Edgar Wallace and Rookie.  I would have to risk £19 to get £10 back.  Seems like a bad bet as Interconnected could possibly take the race

4.20 Newc Contrast the previous race with this one.  Play The Piper and Mick Maestro I would have to put £16 on to get back about £8.  This is definitely a better value bet      though I don't have the botttle to do so

Four more possible races to look at with 4 main contenders but I'm a bit tired now so I may leave them unless I get stuck

 

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Only one winner for me today so just a tiny net profit of £2.06.  This means my balance is now £568.93 (Bank £500).  Pity that Time To Get Up wasn't matched at 5.1.  Interesting that I was looking at 12 races with 3/4 main live contenders and upon checking results 4 of the races threw up outsiders so I would have lost on those races no matter which horse I backed.  This demonstrates that even being ultra careful in one's betting can still lead to a loss on any racing day!

Two UK meetings tomorrow, it may be difficult to find a value bet but I'll try

 

 

 

 

[Zilzalian]

18 hours ago, MrJol said:

Mighty Thunder will get the trip in the Midlands National certain winner ?

I totally agreed with you yesterday was my bet of the day i dont do ew but i should have done the forecast but i hate betting anything that short in a field of that size, best laid plans and all that lol