Racing Chit Chat Saturday 20th March

[Zilzalian]

Feel Cheated?

28 races at the Cheltenham festival at least 12 races were won by horses that didn't couldn't win an ordinary race/s (for their grade) previously and on several occasions.

Tiger Roll, Minella Indo, black tears (12+ lengths behind concertista beats concertista), Galopin Des Champs, etc etc. So it begs the question cheating the handicapper and the punters? Yes I fully agree that those that own horses do not owe the punters anything but when you win a race of the highest grade but can't win "standard" races then I think it fair that questions should be asked, especially when we have a rule that all horses must run on their merit.

[MCLARKE]

I sometimes think that we take Cheltenham too seriously. Everything seems to be geared towards it. 

[Little Punt]

As a spectacle Cheltenham Festival is an experience every race goer should experience at least once.

Just to be able to say Been There, Done That, Got the T Shirt.

On a personal note, New Years Day at Cheltenham is more enjoyable, Seeing horse close up, and being

able to see them race from start to finish. And the added bonus of hardly any que for food, drink or calls of

nature.

I avoid having a punt on anything at the Festival, Antepost is more a lottery with the same horse entered into

3 or 4 different races and it depends on what horses it will be racing against determines which race or races

it finally goes in.

Id rather see the best horses in each class and distance run against each other, like at Ascot on Champions Day,

6 races, best against the best, and not 4 days of swapping and switching. Know wont happen but would love to

see a Champion Hurdles Day and a Champion Chase Day. even throw in a Champion Steeplechase Day.

But at the end of the day we all know what the greatest influence is and why things wont change and thats

MONEY

[calva decoy]

9 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Feel Cheated?

28 races at the Cheltenham festival at least 12 races were won by horses that didn't couldn't win an ordinary race/s (for their grade) previously and on several occasions.

Tiger Roll, Minella Indo, black tears (12+ lengths behind concertista beats concertista), Galopin Des Champs, etc etc. So it begs the question cheating the handicapper and the punters? Yes I fully agree that those that own horses do not owe the punters anything but when you win a race of the highest grade but can't win "standard" races then I think it fair that questions should be asked, especially when we have a rule that all horses must run on their merit.

You don't have to bet !

I'm wondering if Aintree will be an Irish rout & or if any UK trainers tip up at Punchestown ?

Midlands Grand National today , back to some bread & butter racing 

 

CAPTAIN DRAKE 12/1 ew bet365 , only 2Lb higher than when 2nd in the race last year with B.Carver taking 3Lb off ?

[calva decoy]

9 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I sometimes think that we take Cheltenham too seriously. Everything seems to be geared towards it. 

It's become Xmas for the bookies imo & becoming far too commercial .

This will sound mental but I've put in my digital diary for next year to avoid having a bet at Cheltenham & just watch & have a punt on the bread & butter meetings taking place at the same time .

Doesn't matter if it's November , January , March or April never do well financially at Cheltenham likewise Sandown & Newbury , does anyone else have courses like this & or ones they thrive at ?

[Wanderlust]

3 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

It's become Xmas for the bookies imo & becoming far too commercial .

This will sound mental but I've put in my digital diary for next year to avoid having a bet at Cheltenham & just watch & have a punt on the bread & butter meetings taking place at the same time .

Doesn't matter if it's November , January , March or April never do well financially at Cheltenham likewise Sandown & Newbury , does anyone else have courses like this & or ones they thrive at ?

I am the opposite. I have always done well at Cheltenham and Aintree............Not this year though!!!!!!

I used to go to Cheltenham Festival every March ( between mid 80s to late 90s) and ALWAYS won

Chester May Festival was another place I seemed to always make money. 

For some reason Haydock and Ascot are big losers for me, financially, never seem to win there.

[Wanderlust]

9 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Feel Cheated?

28 races at the Cheltenham festival at least 12 races were won by horses that didn't couldn't win an ordinary race/s (for their grade) previously and on several occasions.

Tiger Roll, Minella Indo, black tears (12+ lengths behind concertista beats concertista), Galopin Des Champs, etc etc. So it begs the question cheating the handicapper and the punters? Yes I fully agree that those that own horses do not owe the punters anything but when you win a race of the highest grade but can't win "standard" races then I think it fair that questions should be asked, especially when we have a rule that all horses must run on their merit.

Sorry mate but I have to disagree.

I am annoyed with myself for not backing Minella Indo.  That horse had plenty of form in the book. Hindsight is 20/20, but I strongly fancied him prior to him tipping up at Leopardstown, so I was far from surprised. Galopin Des Champs? He had been running in GRaded races...finished less than 10l behing Appreciate It, 6l behind Ballyadam and 3l behind Blue Lord, on its penultimate start. I missed this...too lazy to study all the form, but the form is there, I don't feel cheated at all. And as for Tiger Roll...I did not think he would win, but he has won that race twice? before. CandD winner. Foolhardy to discount. Even some of the big price winners, there was form there if you look .

 

[Villa Chris]

It’s a tough one. No doubt some horses are slowly brought to the boil to hit Cheltenham at their peak. Some are ran below their true ability so are well handicapped. Some just thrive in these top races. I wouldn’t be looking at Minella Indo and thinking how did he won that. The horse is very talented and races at the highest level in Ireland. Some races at Cheltenham  you’ve just got to track the form from earlier in the day or the day before etc. AP preferred the 3 day festival because it was more competitive, and I wouldn’t mind it going back to 3, although it won’t. Some are calling for 5 days ffs, which would ruin it. By the 4th day I’ve started to have enough tbf. I love Cheltenham for betting and the spectacle. Some punters take it very seriously and do it all year round placing ante post bets and making serious money from it. Fair play to them, it’s hard work Cheltenham week let alone all year round . My missus was meant to be taking us there for the last two days for a birthday gift but obviously it got cancelled. With a bit of luck we’ll be there next year and I can’t wait. Whether I’ll want to go again I don’t know , but it’s something I want to do in my life and be a part of for the experience. 
 

Overall it was a great festival. Made a small profit and enjoyed watching top class racing . It’s the best show on earth of any sport IMO . 

[Villa Chris]

Midlands National 

Captain Drake 

Achille 

Mighty Thunder 

[Wildgarden]

500 Wolverhampton cafe milano 14-1 paddy power

600 wolverhampon Gabriel the devil 8-1 paddy power

[The Equaliser]

12 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Feel Cheated?

28 races at the Cheltenham festival at least 12 races were won by horses that didn't couldn't win an ordinary race/s (for their grade) previously and on several occasions.

Tiger Roll, Minella Indo, black tears (12+ lengths behind concertista beats concertista), Galopin Des Champs, etc etc. So it begs the question cheating the handicapper and the punters? Yes I fully agree that those that own horses do not owe the punters anything but when you win a race of the highest grade but can't win "standard" races then I think it fair that questions should be asked, especially when we have a rule that all horses must run on their merit.

I am not so much concerned with horses bouncing back to form and winning well as I am with horses in the top three in the betting running very poorly (like Zanahyr in the 1.20 at Cheltenham yesterday).  So often I see market leaders running like a cart horse in races, not just in the big racing events but in every day races.  I think that their performances nened to be more closely scrutinized and weak explanations after the race such as a trainer's rep saying that they cannot offer an explanation is unacceptable. 

[Hotspur88]

13.50 Uttoxeter - Saint Dalina 5/1 win (money back on Skybet if it finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th up to stake of £10) £10 stake = £60 returns + £5 extra stake on William Hill at 5/1 with £5 free bet = £25 returns (£85 returns total)

15.00 Uttoxeter - Wilde About Oscar 7/2 win (placed on bet365 for BOG) £10 stake = £45 returns

15.35 Uttoxeter - Captain Drake 12/1 e/w & The Two Amigos 16/1 e/w (placed on Skybet as paying 7 places) £5 e/w stake on both = £82 & £106 return

Edited March 20, 2021 by Barnes1882

[Villa Chris]

9 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I am not so much concerned with horses bouncing back to form and winning well as I am with horses in the top three in the betting running very poorly (like Zanahyr in the 1.20 at Cheltenham yesterday).  So often I see market leaders running like a cart horse in races, not just in the big racing events but in every day races.  I think that their performances nened to be more closely scrutinized and weak explanations after the race such as a trainer's rep saying that they cannot offer an explanation is unacceptable. 

Is it possible Zanahyr did not take to the course and the ground. It was G/S Good in places . 

[SirRavenous]

3 hours ago, Wanderlust said:

I am the opposite. I have always done well at Cheltenham and Aintree............Not this year though!!!!!!

I used to go to Cheltenham Festival every March ( between mid 80s to late 90s) and ALWAYS won

Chester May Festival was another place I seemed to always make money. 

For some reason Haydock and Ascot are big losers for me, financially, never seem to win there.

In my almost ten years of punting, I’ve noticed that the one course where I excel financially is Ascot. 

[cannotbebeat]

Uttoxeter

1.50 Steal A March 9/2

3.35 Screaming Colours 6/1

Kempton

2.05 Doukarov 7/2

2.40 Nightboattoclyro 5/2

3.15 Falco Blitz 11/4

I feel Cheltenham is a spectacle for everybody in racing to enjoy from the owners to the fans. I know people save just so they have money to bet on Cheltenham. Not for me I may do one or two bets just to see if I can say I picked a winner at Cheltenham. I am more interested in trying to find my next winner I always say don't forget the bread and butter racing. Onwards and upwards to the winning post.

Good luck all CNBB.

 

[Wanderlust]

48 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Is it possible Zanahyr did not take to the course and the ground. It was G/S Good in places . 

I think the ground was faster than he prefers, but I also think that the first 3/4 of the race was run at a crawl ( I haven't seen time figures, but it just seemed very slow.)

Tritonic was unable to quicken off a slow pace and was left behind........... and it became a sprint finish which did not suit Zanahiyr. He was running on right at the end and was closing on the leaders albeit under hands and heels. Short of doing a "Harry Skelton" and kicking for home 2 out, which would have been a mistake, I think you put it down to the fact that the race wasnt run to suit.

 

[The Equaliser]

3 hours ago, Wanderlust said:

Sorry mate but I have to disagree.

I am annoyed with myself for not backing Minella Indo.  That horse had plenty of form in the book. Hindsight is 20/20, but I strongly fancied him prior to him tipping up at Leopardstown, so I was far from surprised. Galopin Des Champs? He had been running in GRaded races...finished less than 10l behing Appreciate It, 6l behind Ballyadam and 3l behind Blue Lord, on its penultimate start. I missed this...too lazy to study all the form, but the form is there, I don't feel cheated at all. And as for Tiger Roll...I did not think he would win, but he has won that race twice? before. CandD winner. Foolhardy to discount. Even some of the big price winners, there was form there if you look .

 

Haha, "its all their in the form book" so often I have heard this remark applied to a surprise winner.  What I would like to know is the relevance of "form in the book" to today's race.  From a practical standpoint does one take account of the last few performances? does one go back months? surely one cannot go back years because then too many in today's race would all seem to have a chance of winning.  What are your thoughts?

 

[gbettle]

One of the best experiences I had when going racing - been to nearly half the UK courses, Meydan, Longchamp - was at Cheltenham.

This mind nugget was in the Pertemps Final (listed Handicap Hurdle), 5yo+, Class 1, 24f back in 2009.
This was also as a jolly in the Betfair tent, as the syndicate I was then working for back then was a premium Betfair customer.  
The company MD and chairman also came along that day.

The MD was friends with one of the founders of Betfair and our table in the tent was visited by him and some underlings.

As the 14:05 was gathering at the start, all 3 of these Betfair employees ask me what I thought about it - I was actually already looking into the next race.

So, I looked back at my notes for the 14:05 and said our system had selected, Kayf Aramis, which was hovering around 20 on Betfair.

They all smiled at me like I was bonkers, "good luck with that!".

The race started and I only looked up from studying the next race when the MD and chairman both started yelling at the tent monitors:

"Get in there!"

"GO ON!"

"YES!"

All 3 Betfair employees returned to our table and congratulated us. And for all the remaining races, the 2 aides always looked out for me, and asked what our system liked.

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

It’s a tough one. No doubt some horses are slowly brought to the boil to hit Cheltenham at their peak. Some are ran below their true ability so are well handicapped. Some just thrive in these top races. I wouldn’t be looking at Minella Indo and thinking how did he won that. The horse is very talented and races at the highest level in Ireland. Some races at Cheltenham  you’ve just got to track the form from earlier in the day or the day before etc. AP preferred the 3 day festival because it was more competitive, and I wouldn’t mind it going back to 3, although it won’t. Some are calling for 5 days ffs, which would ruin it. By the 4th day I’ve started to have enough tbf. I love Cheltenham for betting and the spectacle. Some punters take it very seriously and do it all year round placing ante post bets and making serious money from it. Fair play to them, it’s hard work Cheltenham week let alone all year round . My missus was meant to be taking us there for the last two days for a birthday gift but obviously it got cancelled. With a bit of luck we’ll be there next year and I can’t wait. Whether I’ll want to go again I don’t know , but it’s something I want to do in my life and be a part of for the experience. 
 

Overall it was a great festival. Made a small profit and enjoyed watching top class racing . It’s the best show on earth of any sport IMO . 

I saw all three best mates gold cups went to the last 2 days 3 years running it would have been four if foot and mouth hadnt popped up i really do recommend it to any and everyone.

[Wanderlust]

19 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Haha, "its all their in the form book" so often I have heard this remark applied to a surprise winner.  What I would like to know is the relevance of "form in the book" to today's race.  From a practical standpoint does one take account of the last few performances? does one go back months? surely one cannot go back years because then too many in today's race would all seem to have a chance of winning.  What are your thoughts?

 

I think anything within a year is relevant, especially if that particular form is shown on similar ground/distance/class.

The examples given were Minella Indo. Previously won at Cheltenham. Previously won Grade 3, Grade 2, Grade 1 races. Prior to falling at Leopardstown, was one of the fancies for the Gold Cup. I would much rather back a horse that has shown something ( in other words 'form in the book',) as opposed to a horse that is a 'talking' horse. 

To me it is important to KNOW that a horse has at least been there and done that

[Zilzalian]

25 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Haha, "its all their in the form book" so often I have heard this remark applied to a surprise winner.  What I would like to know is the relevance of "form in the book" to today's race.  From a practical standpoint does one take account of the last few performances? does one go back months? surely one cannot go back years because then too many in today's race would all seem to have a chance of winning.  What are your thoughts?

 

I agree with what your saying to a degree i backed galopin des champs purely on an interview mullins gave at the beginning of the season but not on form. my big contention is running on merits some of the winners at the festival definitely were not running on their merits in previous races. lets be honest here if you cant win "a standard race" in its class then you must explain why it won at the very top grade. had minella indo shown enough form (better) to beat the others? the handicaps are worse, shocking, verging on scandalous. i am not talking about one offs here i identified 12 out of 28 races where the result was very dubious. I dont back horse to make a profit although it is always a plus, i back for the fun and challenge. I have a new system for next year- cross out all the English runners reduce the fields then get my darts out and fire them at the list of each race.

[The Equaliser]

where is the @Brigadiertoday?

 

[Wildgarden]

105 fontwell fally Jem 10.0 betdaq

210 fontwell test a ride 12.5 betdaq

[The Equaliser]

12.30 Font Sambezi £7 win at 2.54; Lavante £1 win at 15/2 & John Betjeman £1 wi at 11/1.  This assumes that Forever Des Long doesn't win but hey you can't cover all angles can you?

2.25 Uttx 4 live contenders.  The morning show highlights St Bart's for Timeform.  I thought they wrote 139p, my web page shows 148p.  This has drifted a bit in the betting and Eclair Surf has come in for support.  No angle for me so I'll pass

3.35 Uttx Time To Get Up.  Have put in a £3 win bet at 5.1 um at 4.1.  I have had £2 win on Screaming Colours at 9.8 will pay £17.25 if it wins and Time To Get Up price doesn't get matched.

Total poss stakes so far = £15.00

I have got a few races to look at later on and I am keen to get back on track with my dutching campaign.  See you later

 

 

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

12.30 Fontwell - 1pt e/w Needhams Gap @ 18/1

1.50 Uttoxeter - 2pts win Steal A March @ 5/1

2.05 Kempton - 1pt e/w Havana Hermano @ 8/1

2.25 Uttoxeter - 1pt e/w Acey Milan @ 12/1

2.40 Kempton - 1pt win Switch Hitter @ 7/1

3.15 Kempton - 2pts win Mellow Ben @ 11/2

3.20 Fontwell - 1pt win Beauvallon Bay @ 6/1

3.35 Uttoxeter - 1pt e/w Tommy Rapper @ 20/1

[Tedthewolf]

Midland National

 

2 e/w aginst the field  lots of these have questions to answer  i feel i have 2 decent e/w chances in PRIME VENTURE 18/1 5places bog & SPRINGFIELD  FOX 33/1 5 places bog. Might have another wee bit on each for  7 places nearer the time if  i can get the same or better prices.

Will also have a quid rfc.

[Villa Chris]

1 hour ago, Wanderlust said:

I think the ground was faster than he prefers, but I also think that the first 3/4 of the race was run at a crawl ( I haven't seen time figures, but it just seemed very slow.)

Tritonic was unable to quicken off a slow pace and was left behind........... and it became a sprint finish which did not suit Zanahiyr. He was running on right at the end and was closing on the leaders albeit under hands and heels. Short of doing a "Harry Skelton" and kicking for home 2 out, which would have been a mistake, I think you put it down to the fact that the race wasnt run to suit.

 

Exactly this too. Was trying to explain to my mate yesterday how pace can dictate a horse running well or not running well. He didn’t understand how it effected races. 

[MCLARKE]

At least at Cheltenham you know the horse will be trying to win, even if it wasn't in it's previous race.

I tend to do well at Cheltenham, mostly by taking advantage of bookmakers offers rather than form analysis.

I always go to the Grand National and it's always been very successful, usually by backing outsiders, favourites don't tend to do very well there.

[Villa Chris]

The bookies got hit hard with some big accas coming in. Three of what I know of, and they seemed well thought out accas by seasoned punters, not just your casual punter . Obviously you need tonnes of luck, too, but these were anti post accas that were done last year when the prices of horses were far greater than they were on the day.  Already looking at next festival prices and it seems they are tightening things up a bit. Monkfish 5/1 for gold cup is ridiculous. Shishkin 6/4 for champion chase, Appreciate It 4/1 Arkle . Not taking any chances are they. 

Edited March 20, 2021 by Villa Chris

[calva decoy]

5 hours ago, Wanderlust said:

I am the opposite. I have always done well at Cheltenham and Aintree............Not this year though!!!!!!

I used to go to Cheltenham Festival every March ( between mid 80s to late 90s) and ALWAYS won

Chester May Festival was another place I seemed to always make money. 

For some reason Haydock and Ascot are big losers for me, financially, never seem to win there.

ALWAYS won ?

Wow ?

As someone else mentioned the festival is a great experience , I've done the cheap style in the Best Mate & the Corporate which was an amazing experience but offer me a ticket for a Wednesday at the Champion Chase or an afternoon at Huntingdon the same day with no queing for a pee or a beer & in the knowledge I'll be back home within the hour & not 4 & it's no contest .

Cheltenham , Sandown , Newbury , Market Rasen are courses I don't do well at .

Ascot , Doncaster , Huntingdon , Kelso are 4 I do , no idea why , I'm a stat man so I apply the same methods as for Aintree in a few weeks I'm a Tizzard / Power backer , could be in the poor house again ?