Racing Chat - Wednesday 17th March

[The Brigadier]

Day 2 and I hope you managed to find a winner or two today.

 

1.20

A disappointing field size but the main runners are all here and we’re racing so let’s not be too downhearted. I think one of the front three in the betting will win this and although you can make a solid case for any of the trio I’m with Bob Olinger. Impressive winner of an Irish point to point and bumper. He was beaten by Ferny Hollow on his hurdling debut at Gowran Park in November and hasn’t looked back since winning at Navan and Naas. He looks the real deal to me and although I have respect for his two main dangers in Bravemansgame and Gaillard Du Mesnil it’s Henry De Bromhead’s 6 year old for me.

 

BOB OLINGER 2 points win @ 6/4 Betway

 

1.55

Only 6 go to post for the Brown Advisory Chase (RSA to most of us) and a very warm favourite in Willie Mullin’s Monkfish. He’s looked exceptional in his three chase wins this season and as a previous Cheltenham Festival winner of last season’s Albert Bartlett will be very hard to beat. I think Colin Tizzard’s The Big Breakaway can chase him home but from a punting angle it’s a no bet race for me.

 

2.30

A typically wide open Coral Hurdle where I’ll take two against the field to be backed each way with one of the firms paying enhanced place terms (Skybet, Paddy Power/Betfair SB are the best in the village with 1/5th 7 places). Blue Sari is my first pick. It’s possible that the horse has totally gone as he’s been pulled up on his last two outings but let’s not forget his 3/4L 2nd to the smart Envoi Allen in the Cheltenham Bumper only two years ago. Or his defeat of The Bosses Oscar on his hurdling debut at Punchestown. He was backed on Monday afternoon so with JP McManus owning him that was good to see. The other one I fancy is Guard Your Dreams, trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies. If you get a chance have a look back at the footage of his run last time out in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury then please do. He jumped the last in 12th place and ran on to such effect that he finished 6th only beaten 7L. He looked a horse that day that was crying out for a step up in trip which he gets here. They’re my two but it’s a devilishly hard contest.

 

BLUE SARI 1 point EW @ 10/1 1/4 odds 123456

GUARD YOUR DREAMS 1 point EW 11/1 @ 1/5 odds 12345

 

3.05

Chacun Pour Soi’s day of destiny. He’s yet to race outside of Ireland for his trainer Willie Mullins but everything he’s done in th best company over there has screamed Champion Chaser and although he’s a skinny price it’s hard to see past him despite the fact that he has no experience of this track. He was of course pulled out on the morning of the race last season and can make amends here.

 

CHACUN POUR SOI 2 points win @ 4/5 Paddy Power

 

3.40

Not my favourite race and my first thoughts were that I wanted to get the favourite Easyland beat as I can’t get out of my mind his lack lustre performance in a handicap over this unique course back in November. However when you start looking at the opposition it’s hard to find any serious challengers! Tiger Roll looks a horse who’s half gone. I’ll keep my stakes low but I’ve come to the conclusion that it’s Easyland’s to lose.

 

EASYLAND 1 point win @ 5/6 Paddy Power

 

4.15

A competitive renewal of the Gran Annual. Joseph O’Brien has thee interesting runners  here including last seasons third Us And Them and novice Embittered but this maybe a race the home team can take and I’m particularly sweet on Philip Hobb’s Zanza. He was travelling as well as any when crashing out at the third last here in November with the two that went on to finish 1st and 2nd Sky Pirate and Ibleo now rated 18lb and 17lb higher respectively. Zanza has been off since and can race off of the same mark as he did that day making him look dangerously handicapped.  In such a big field with the enhanced places I’m also tempted to back Venetia Williams’s Ibleo who has done nothing wrong in his last two runs and looks over priced to me.

 

ZANZA 1 Point EW @ 15/2 Boyles 1/5th 12345

IBLEO 1/2 Point EW @ 14/1 Boyles 1/5th 12345

 

4.50

The Champion Bumper concludes Day 2 and this looks fairly certain to be going across the Irish Sea. The front two in the betting could both be very good horses and although I have every respect for Willie Mullin’s Kilcruit who was so impressive at the Dublin Racing Festival I have to stick with Sir Gerhard, who is now trained by Mullins following his move from the disgraced Gordon Elliott. He’s done nothing wrong in his short career and could be another Cheveley Park Stud superstar.

 

SIR GERHARD 2 points win @ 9/4 William Hill

[Tedthewolf]

Very tricky  days racing at Cheltenham so small e/w bets for me.

2.30- PALMERS HILL 33/1 & BOTOX HAS  16/1

3.40 HOGANS HEIGHT 25/1

4.15 US AND THEM 14/1 & BUN DORAN 33/1

Good Luck on Day 2 Folks.

 

 

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

1.20 - Have backed Bob Olinger at 11/2 ante-post and in a couple of multiple bets at shorter so no further bet here.

1.55 - 1pt e/w Dickie Diver @ 25/1

I have Monkfish in multiples are surely wins if jumping round but I think Dickie Diver has a solid chance of coming 2nd - done very little wrong including a staying on 4th in the 2019 Albert Bartlett and shaped very well after a long absence at Newbury when last seen. I'm certain he'll be rated in the 150s before long which would put him in amongst the best of the rest in this race so looks worth a go at 25s.

2.30 - 1pt e/w Birchdale @ 16/1 

Ran a solid run in the race last year despite the ground being too soft for him. Has run over fences since but hasn't been a natural and has also run on soft ground there too. 2lbs lower in the race this year, better ground will definitely suit and ran a nice prep run in a jumpers' bumper last time. If he runs anything like when he battled it out with Brewinupastorm under similar conditions a while back, he's handicapped to win this. 

3.05 - 1pt e/w Put The Kettle On @ 17/2

Again, I have Chacun in multiples but think this one has an excellent chance of making the frame with conditions perfect. Runs the track great, gets decent ground and is admirably consistent. Ought to be there or thereabouts and I think can place for sure and if Chacun does fail to get the job done, I think this could be the one to beat him. 

3.40 - 0.5pts e/w Vivas @ 66/1

Has a mountain to climb on figures and will take something extraordinary to win but has gone well around here before, gets his ground and can go better than the price suggests so a little play here as I could see some big prices making up the first 3 with the favourite tough to beat. 

4.15 - 1pt e/w Not That Fuisse @ 22/1

Probably isn't thrown in at the weights but has solid enough form and conditions are spot on here. I think he needs decent ground and a fast pace to come off at 2 miles and I think the Haldon Gold Cup came too soon last year off the back of a couple of solid runs. Has been eased back in with a couple of pipe openers in all weather bumpers and if jumping okay, I think can go well here

4.50 - 1pt e/w Chemical Energy @ 25/1

The two at the head of the market look very good but I think Chemical Energy could outrun the odds and potentially make the frame. Was very impressive in two bumpers including when beating a very smart horse easily two starts back before running a bit flat behind KIlcruit last time. I don't think he was at his best that day and whilst has lots to find to get near that one today, retains enough promise to make me think he can run into the frame at a price.

[cannotbebeat]

Lingfield

1.30 Shymay

4.25 Renardeau

And a double on

2.05 Clashaniska & 5.00 Khatm

Cheltenham

4.15 Zanza

Down Royal

2.45 King Alex - NR

Good luck all CNBB.

Edited March 17, 2021 by cannotbebeat

[Tedthewolf]

13 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Very tricky  days racing at Cheltenham so small e/w bets for me.

2.30- PALMERS HILL 33/1 & BOTOX HAS  16/1

 

 

 

Added another one in the coral cup  late last night was in  my  short list  but was disappointed it  was  not in the rating list thread by any of the guys but when BTR but it up as selection  i  decided to have a small e/w bet on it as i agree with what he said and i would regret not having summit on if it won or placed BIRCHDALE 16/1 (now 14/1)  e/w 1/4 6places .

[The Equaliser]

My Cheltenham selections today

1.20 Galliard Du Mesnil £5.40 at 3.10 & Bravemansgame £3.10 at 5.4 = £8.04 net profit if either wins.  Obviously Bob Olinger could spoil the party but I like to stick with Willie Mullins and the Paul Nichols team

1.55 Eklat De Rire I have had £5 at 2.04 for 3 places on this horse.  I will be very disappointed if I don't collect

2.30 Grand Roi £2 win at 9.6.  what I find puzzling in this race is that Nico de Boinville rides Birchdale.  Why isn't he on Craegneiche or Monte Cristo? He has either been a very naughty boy or the Henderson runners don't have much of a chance in winning this race imo

3.05 Put the Kettle On £2 win at 13.00.  I'm trying to get £2.12 matched at 1.95 (1.89) as an insurance bet on Chacun Pour Soi to pay for my selection if the favourite wins

3.40 Some Neck £2 win at 13.5.  Easyland £2.04 at 2 insurance bet.  Net profit £21.52 if Some neck wins.  B/E if the favourite wins

4.15 Embittered Trying to get £2 matched at 6.8 (6.0).  Had 50p win on Sky Pirate at 16/1 & 50p win on Duc Des Genievres at 25/1 for fun

4.50 Kilcruit Trying to get £7 win matched at 2.66 (currently overly too short at 2.44) and have had £3.30 matched at 3.15 on Sir Gerhad

Total possible stakes so far = £36.96.  A bit excessive for me but let's hope that all my bets get matched and that even better still that today is not only enjoyable but profitable

   

[roger2256]

March +13.5 

1pt level stakes win only 

13.20 Che Keskonrisk  18/1

13.20 Che Optimise Prime 125/1

14.05 Lin Rebel Redemption 8/1

16.15 Che On The Slopes 18/1 

Prices as of now b365 

Edited March 17, 2021 by roger2256
Addition

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My Cheltenham selections today

1.20 Galliard Du Mesnil £5.40 at 3.10 & Bravemansgame £3.10 at 5.4 = £8.04 net profit if either wins.  Obviously Bob Olinger could spoil the party but I like to stick with Willie Mullins and the Paul Nichols team

1.55 Eklat De Rire I have had £5 at 2.04 for 3 places on this horse.  I will be very disappointed if I don't collect

2.30 Grand Roi £2 win at 9.6.  what I find puzzling in this race is that Nico de Boinville rides Birchdale.  Why isn't he on Craegneiche or Monte Cristo? He has either been a very naughty boy or the Henderson runners don't have much of a chance in winning this race imo

3.05 Put the Kettle On £2 win at 13.00.  I'm trying to get £2.12 matched at 1.95 (1.89) as an insurance bet on Chacun Pour Soi to pay for my selection if the favourite wins

3.40 Some Neck £2 win at 13.5.  Easyland £2.04 at 2 insurance bet.  Net profit £21.52 if Some neck wins.  B/E if the favourite wins

4.15 Embittered Trying to get £2 matched at 6.8 (6.0).  Had 50p win on Sky Pirate at 16/1 & 50p win on Duc Des Genievres at 25/1 for fun

4.50 Kilcruit Trying to get £7 win matched at 2.66 (currently overly too short at 2.44) and have had £3.30 matched at 3.15 on Sir Gerhad

Total possible stakes so far = £36.96.  A bit excessive for me but let's hope that all my bets get matched and that even better still that today is not only enjoyable but profitable

   

2.40 Lin Alpha King £8 win at 2.35 and Insomnia £2 win at 6.43 = £8.64 & £2.80 net profit if either win. Painless Potter is an obvious danger

Some other bets still not matched but I would rather just have a straight single bet if I can't get the price that I want

Possible stakes = £46.96 now

 

[Villa Chris]

Worse I’ve seen monkfish but still wins easy enough 

[ipswich45]

Great to hear what sounded like Mike Cattermole calling Lingfield earlier and getting back up in the box 

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Kempton 4.40

SWEET ANGEL 11/2

[ipswich45]

Politilogue late non runner in the 1505    quoted as blood in nose 

[Villa Chris]

The Tiger is back. Wow... he was superb.

[Zilzalian]

and no one asked why they have been cheating with it this year. watch its last race nothing wrong with the horse they pulled/stopped it.

[Villa Chris]

18 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

and no one asked why they have been cheating with it this year. watch its last race nothing wrong with the horse they pulled/stopped it.

Didn’t think of that tbf . Last year he got hammered by easyland although still finished second. Then two poor runs after that before the race you are on about . Trying to get his mark down for grand National ? It didn’t work then they pulled him out of it, then wins today. 

 

 

Edited March 17, 2021 by Villa Chris

[Bathtime For Rupert]

19 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

All prices Bet365:

1.20 - Have backed Bob Olinger at 11/2 ante-post and in a couple of multiple bets at shorter so no further bet here.

1.55 - 1pt e/w Dickie Diver @ 25/1

I have Monkfish in multiples are surely wins if jumping round but I think Dickie Diver has a solid chance of coming 2nd - done very little wrong including a staying on 4th in the 2019 Albert Bartlett and shaped very well after a long absence at Newbury when last seen. I'm certain he'll be rated in the 150s before long which would put him in amongst the best of the rest in this race so looks worth a go at 25s.

2.30 - 1pt e/w Birchdale @ 16/1 

Ran a solid run in the race last year despite the ground being too soft for him. Has run over fences since but hasn't been a natural and has also run on soft ground there too. 2lbs lower in the race this year, better ground will definitely suit and ran a nice prep run in a jumpers' bumper last time. If he runs anything like when he battled it out with Brewinupastorm under similar conditions a while back, he's handicapped to win this. 

3.05 - 1pt e/w Put The Kettle On @ 17/2

Again, I have Chacun in multiples but think this one has an excellent chance of making the frame with conditions perfect. Runs the track great, gets decent ground and is admirably consistent. Ought to be there or thereabouts and I think can place for sure and if Chacun does fail to get the job done, I think this could be the one to beat him. 

3.40 - 0.5pts e/w Vivas @ 66/1

Has a mountain to climb on figures and will take something extraordinary to win but has gone well around here before, gets his ground and can go better than the price suggests so a little play here as I could see some big prices making up the first 3 with the favourite tough to beat. 

4.15 - 1pt e/w Not That Fuisse @ 22/1

Probably isn't thrown in at the weights but has solid enough form and conditions are spot on here. I think he needs decent ground and a fast pace to come off at 2 miles and I think the Haldon Gold Cup came too soon last year off the back of a couple of solid runs. Has been eased back in with a couple of pipe openers in all weather bumpers and if jumping okay, I think can go well here

4.50 - 1pt e/w Chemical Energy @ 25/1

The two at the head of the market look very good but I think Chemical Energy could outrun the odds and potentially make the frame. Was very impressive in two bumpers including when beating a very smart horse easily two starts back before running a bit flat behind KIlcruit last time. I don't think he was at his best that day and whilst has lots to find to get near that one today, retains enough promise to make me think he can run into the frame at a price.

Better day today with Bob Olinger and Put The Kettle on winning and Birchdale and Not That Fuisse placing (with enhanced places).

Can't see Chemical Energy winning but 4th would do in the last...especially not he's out to 50s!

[Zilzalian]

11 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Didn’t think of that tbf . Last year he got hammered by easyland although still finished second. Then two poor runs after that before the race you are on about . Trying to get his mark down for grand National ? It didn’t work then they pulled him out of it, then wins today. 

 

 

you just confirmed what i said "tried to get his handicap mark down", to do that you have to get a horse beaten so it was breaking the rule "not running on its true merit"

[Zilzalian]

Just now, Zilzalian said:

you just confirmed what i said "tried to get his handicap mark down", to do that you have to get a horse beaten so it was breaking the rule "not running on its true merit"

i watched that last race it was absolutely cruising and then they stopped it.

[Villa Chris]

2 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

you just confirmed what i said "tried to get his handicap mark down", to do that you have to get a horse beaten so it was breaking the rule "not running on its true merit"

Unfortunately it happens all the time in racing doesn’t it. Trainers trying to get their horses well handicapped by hook or by crook .

[cannotbebeat]

Kempton

6.50 Uzincso

7.20 Vibrance

7.50 Tipperary Jack

Good luck all CNBB.

[The Equaliser]

9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

2.40 Lin Alpha King £8 win at 2.35 and Insomnia £2 win at 6.43 = £8.64 & £2.80 net profit if either win. Painless Potter is an obvious danger

Some other bets still not matched but I would rather just have a straight single bet if I can't get the price that I want

Possible stakes = £46.96 now

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Thank goodness for Put the Kettle on winning for me today.  I had three other winners and made a net profit of £17.41 This brings my new balance to £600.42 (Bank £500).  I was a bit worried about my stakes though £9.12 did not get matched anyway.

I will probably be a little more cautious tomorrow at Cheltenham