alexcaruso808 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 12 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Which particular sites are you referring to? Personally I prefer to make my own ratings rather than follow somebody else. I get ratings from a site advancedratings.net If I knew how to make my own ratings I would, any tips on how you do this would be appreciated.. What apps or websites, apart from Racing Post, do you use? I am very keen to learn. Thanks! The Brigadier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Valiant Thor said: 1/4 shots have an implied probability of 80% therefore should lose approx 20% of the time In 1000 bets there will be approx 200 losers not 4 Its the 200 losers that have an Implied probability losing sequence ratio of 4 (4.29) in 1000 bets I believe that's the same advice advocated by Dave Nevison (Failed Gambler,failed tipster) in one of his books who now sells his wares on Racing TV as some sort of expert mustn't be paying him that much as he looks like a tramp whose just slept in a skip when Ive seen him on tv. Mind you John McCririck made a decent living out of talking crap and he was a failed bookie as well so couldn't do it as a pundit a poacher or a gamekeeper. Many thanks for putting me straight ? The Brigadier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brigadier Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Valiant Thor said: 1/4 shots have an implied probability of 80% therefore should lose approx 20% of the time In 1000 bets there will be approx 200 losers not 4 Its the 200 losers that have an Implied probability losing sequence ratio of 4 (4.29) in 1000 bets I believe that's the same advice advocated by Dave Nevison (Failed Gambler,failed tipster) in one of his books who now sells his wares on Racing TV as some sort of expert mustn't be paying him that much as he looks like a tramp whose just slept in a skip when Ive seen him on tv. Mind you John McCririck made a decent living out of talking crap and he was a failed bookie as well so couldn't do it as a pundit a poacher or a gamekeeper. Please don't put me in the same bracket as Nevison ?? The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Not sure who it was but it was some old boy. He done well out the horses. Anyway he said never be put off by the price no matter how big the odds, never bet odds on, and never go E/W. The Brigadier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 hour ago, alexcaruso808 said: I get ratings from a site advancedratings.net If I knew how to make my own ratings I would, any tips on how you do this would be appreciated.. What apps or websites, apart from Racing Post, do you use? I am very keen to learn. Thanks! I’ve just started trying to do my own. All I can say is that you’ll probably have a few unsuccessful attempts before you hit on to something. I’m not saying I’m on to something now, but I feel I’ve progressed since earlier in the year. Mine are pretty basic but there’s some great advice on here from the people that post on here , although it can be mind boggling. alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 hours ago, Valiant Thor said: 1/4 shots have an implied probability of 80% therefore should lose approx 20% of the time In 1000 bets there will be approx 200 losers not 4 Its the 200 losers that have an Implied probability losing sequence ratio of 4 (4.29) in 1000 bets I believe that's the same advice advocated by Dave Nevison (Failed Gambler,failed tipster) in one of his books who now sells his wares on Racing TV as some sort of expert mustn't be paying him that much as he looks like a tramp whose just slept in a skip when Ive seen him on tv. Mind you John McCririck made a decent living out of talking crap and he was a failed bookie as well so couldn't do it as a pundit a poacher or a gamekeeper. Is there anyone on tv who talks sense? I find most of them less informative than old man joe in the bookies . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 14 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Is there anyone on tv who talks sense? I find most of them less informative than old man joe in the bookies . YES Jason Weaver Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 16 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Is there anyone on tv who talks sense? I find most of them less informative than old man joe in the bookies . Rachel Candelora is one Id actually listen too 3 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said: YES Jason Weaver He gives a jockey/horseman's view rather than actual tips but does make sense Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said: YES Jason Weaver Yep, he’s one of the better ones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said: Rachel Candelora is one Id actually listen too He gives a jockey/horseman's view rather than actual tips but does make sense Any votes for Matt Chapman? He’s good entertainment if nothing else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 To be honest i like the itv set up and think the panel/experts do a good job. Chapman asks some probing questions and some tounge and cheek ones i don't mind him at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said: To be honest i like the itv set up and think the panel/experts do a good job. Chapman asks some probing questions and some tounge and cheek ones i don't mind him at all. I enjoy the show(morning show) and the actual racing in the afternoon. I like chapman, and enjoy watching him wind up people, especially on those Cheltenham preview nights. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 I find it entertaining but not particularly useful from a betting perspective. It does irritate me when one of them says "it's a good each way bet" just because the price is above 5/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/10/2020 at 2:56 PM, Villa Chris said: Anyway he said never be put off by the price no matter how big the odds, never bet odds on, and never go E/W. Generally due to the longshot / favourite bias it is difficult to make long term profits backing big priced selections. Many of my best bets have been odds on. In certain situations each way bets make sense, often when there is an odds on favourite. It all depends on the shape of the betting and the number of runners. My most profitable strategy over the last few years has been taking advantage of the extra place races offered by bookmakers. Sadly due to restrictions these opportunities are now few and far between. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 16 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Generally due to the longshot / favourite bias it is difficult to make long term profits backing big priced selections. Many of my best bets have been odds on. In certain situations each way bets make sense, often when there is an odds on favourite. It all depends on the shape of the betting and the number of runners. My most profitable strategy over the last few years has been taking advantage of the extra place races offered by bookmakers. Sadly due to restrictions these opportunities are now few and far between. Barry Hills is the man in question. I’d find it hard not to go ew on a certain price. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.racingpost.com/news/barry-hills-my-golden-rules-for-successful-punting/129993/amp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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