Racing Chat - Saturday 13th November

[Darran]

Saturday sees the final day of the Spring Carnival in Melbourne with plenty of Group action at Sandown. In NSW the main action is at Newcastle where the million dollar Hunter is the feature. With the end of the Spring Carnival I am going to make this my final Australian preview for now. The original intention was to do them just well there was no racing in the UK, but it went well so I carried on and it made sense to cover the spring action. There will probably still be the odd tip from time to time but with the hunter chase season not too far away I want to take a break. Tomorrow I have bets in 6 races.

Sandown R5 (3.30am)

Kenya went off favourite for the 2018 Cambridgeshire, but he finished last. Clearly something was up that on what was his final start for Aidan O'Brien. He wasn't seen again until June when he went off joint favourite for a handicap at Flemington. Although he finished 10th he wasn't beaten that far and he was then spelled. He returned at Mornington at the start of the month and he looked good when making all to win. He was a G3 winner as a 2yo, finished 2nd in a G2 at Leopardstown and won the Irish Cambridgeshire. The win last time suggests he has the ability he had in Ireland still and he can land this G3 contest.

Kenya @ 7/5 with Bet365

Sandown R7 (4.45am)

The Sandown Cup is over 3200m and there are a couple I like here. Sin To Win won for the first time in a long time on Melbourne Cup day and he did it in good style. This race is tougher, but he's been in good form and is 1/1 at the trip. The fact we know he stays is a crucial one for me. The other one I like is top weight and ex-French runner San Huberto. He landed a G2 over 3000m at Chantilly in June and certainly has the class to land this contest. His first run in Australia was in the Geelong Cup and he only beat one home, but that wasn't a surprise given he was a big drifter and the trip would have been on the short side for him. He's better than he showed there and looks over priced.

Sin To Win @ 3/1 with Bet365

San Huberto e/w @ 20/1 with William Hill

Sandown R8 (5.25am)

Onto the G2 Zipping Classic next and I have to go with Future Score. I thought they might have run him in the Sandown Cup, but connections have San Huberto for that so have run him here instead. I thought he was unlucky not to win the Hotham last time. Although the winner Ashrun had to come from further back, he was able to get up some speed whereas Future Score couldn't get a run and he finished strongly once he did get a gap. If he gets a gap sooner for me he wins the race. He is the main bet, but I have to cover the favourite Avilius. At his best he is the best horse in the race and although he hasn't won for a while he has been in pretty good form for most of this prep. I'd ignore the Melbourne Cup run last time as he was always out the back, but the Caulfield Cup run was a good one as he didn't get much luck in running. I have to have him onside.

Future Score @ 4/1 with Bet365

Avilius @ 3/1 with Bet365

Sandown R9 (6.05am)

Gold Fields is better off with All Too Huiying based on their Seymour Cup 1st and 2nd last month and he then finished a fast finishing 2nd in a Listed Race on Melbourne Cup day. That came over today's trip so although he has never won over this far he is clearly capable of doing so. The other one I like is West Wind. She is coming back down in trip, but she is in flying form at the moment having won her last 3. I thought she was especially impressive at Moonee Valley last time and the 2nd has won a G2 since so the form is rock solid. If she copes with the drop down in trip she has a big chance for me.

Gold Fields @ 5/1 with Bet365

West Wind @ 13/2 with Bet365

Newcastle R4 (3.50am)

Yes he has top weight in this BM72, but he does look a class above. He was racing in the winter and running well enough on heavy tracks, but his best form is on good tracks. His 1st run of the prep was his first start on a dry track for a while and he ran a very good 4th over 1000m. He didn't get a clear run either as he didn't get a gap until 200m out and if he gets a gap sooner he is likely to have won the race. I think he can atone her.

Superium @ 9/4 with William Hill

Newcastle R7 (5.45am) 

The feature race on the card and whilst Ranier was tempting I have gone for Trumbull instead. He was running so consistently last prep and got a deserved win when landing a Listed Race in June at Rosehill. He improved on that 1st up this prep when winning a G3 at Randwick last month. The 1st 2 pulled clear of the rest and stepping up to 1300m is going to suit as well. The draw could have been better, but on the back of that last effort I think he can land this massive prize.

Trumbull @ 9/2 with Bet365

[Villa Chris]

2.15 Cheltenham, Simply The Betts 9/2

2.15 Cheltenham, Siruh Du Lac 12/1 ew

2.50 Cheltenham, On The Blind Side  5/1

3.25 Cheltenham, Kepagge 6/1

Double 17/1 Cheltenham 

Siruh Du Lac has a lot going for him. I expect On The Blind Side to run a big race even though he’s known as a chaser now. Couldn’t ignore him at that price. Kepagge is open to more progress and will appreciate the rain. 
 

Edited post because Tea Clipper non runner. Single bet added with simply the Betts . It’s also effected my ew play with On The Blindside who’s now a straight win bet . 

Edited November 14, 2020 by Villa Chris

[ipswich45]

1230 Cheltenham
#1 Duffle Coat for Gordon Elliott being ridden today by Robbie Power is 3 from 3 going into this contest latest success was at Wetherby on the 30th October winning by 8 lengths that over 2 miles having jumped off as the favourite, #2 Adagio comes in seeking a hat trick latest win at Warwick over 2 miles winning by 7.5 lengths prior to that this horse won 3 races on the flat in France with the last of those being at Clairefontaine, #6 Hell Red has had 2 starts one finishing 2nd at Auteuil and a winner performance at Chepstow running for the on fire combination of Paul Nichols and Harry Cobden    Selection: #6 Hell Red

1407 Uttoxeter
#1 Jammy George last seen on 25th October at Aintree finishing 5th on seasonal reappearnce finished last season with 2 wins and is off the same mark and can go well Jack Tudor takes 5lbs off, #2 Head To The Stars was last seen 8 months ago winning at Ludlow over 3m and goes up another 2f for this race Bryony Frost takes over the saddle duties on this one, #4 Dieu Vivant won last time out also at Ludlow at 16/1 in a hunter chase event and returns today with former trainer Oliver Greenall, #8 Rosmuc Relay from the Kim Bailey yard has only had 2 runs over fences finished 2nd last time out at Hereford beaten by 2 lengths back in March this should be a stiffer contest of stamina and should go well, #9 Indy Five starts for a new stable Tom Symonds having moved from David Dennis following a below par 2019 may well go close if the stable change works as showed some promise in the last run at Exeter
Selection: #1 Jammy George

1415 Cheltenham
#2 Simply The Betts has been placed in the last 5 starts winning 4 of those including the last 2 recent successes have been at Cheltenham with Gavin Sheehan climbing aboard again and is difficult to oppose, #3 Mister Fisher finished 4th last time out which was at Cheltenham having won the time prior but at Doncaster today Nico De Boinville takes the ride and could go close, #4 Al Dancer won last time out at Newton Abbot for the Twiston-Davies pairing didnt make a big impression in the top chasing races last season but the Newton Abbot race could bring a change of fortune and should be there, #7 Siruh Du Lac was unbeaten in the 2018/19 season and could be interesting to watch having changed yards to David Pipe and having a wind operation since last season which saw 2 races which resulted in 1 fall and 1 pulled up added to the form if putting that behind could be dangerous, #9 Saint Sonnet for the Nichols and Cobden pairing won 2 starts ago on a chasing debut at Catterick and followed that up by being beaten 13 lengths at Cheltenham in 7th place this horse won listed hurdle races in France    Selection: #7 Siruh Du Luc 

1525 Cheltenham
#1 Kepagge comes in 3 from 3 last season latest 2 were on heavy ground though but has had wind operation since being seen last at Doncaster and is interesting on re-appearance,  #5 Topofthecotswolds for the Twiston-Davies is a horse ive personally been following recently finished 3rd last time out at Cheltenham beaten by 11 lengths having won at Uttoxeter prior to that should hopefully make the top 3, #8 Captain Tom Cat for Dr Newland comes in having secured a hat trick of wins last month at Cheltenham under Mr Leonard who claimed 7lbs then and does again toda, #9 Shinobi from the Kim Bailey yard comes into this race of a win at Wincanton jockey changed to Ciaran Gethings for this race who won on this horse 3 starts ago  at Uttoxeter    Selection: #8 Captain Tom Cat

1540 Lingfield
#1 Judicial won this contest last year for Julie Comacho this year is 2 wins from 5 runs last seen at York in September finishing 4th beaten by 6 lengths and should go well back on the all weather surface, #2 Good Effort has won 4 in a row last 2 at Lingfield most recently was on the 4th November after a break since 1st February looks very difficult to beat, #5 On The Warpath ridden today by William Buick for Charlie Appleby finished last of 9 at Newmarket 17 lengths behind Limato in the Criterion but been off the track since then, #10 Jovial won over C&D in June most recently finished 3rd at Newmarket beaten by 1.5 lengths today Tom Marquand takes over the saddle off Ryan Moore for Sir Michael Stoute        
Selection: #5 On The Warpath

1700 Wolverhampton
#2 Plansina is a C&D winner latest being 2 starts ago on the 19th October finished 3rd on the last start 2 weeks ago could go close again with Finley Marsh taking 3lbs off again, #4 Global Style is still a maiden after 21 runs on the flat but did come 2nd last time out at Windsor over 1m that was at 20/1 in a 13 runner race could sneak into the frame if continuing on from that, #6 Josiebond won at Redcar on the 3rd November on heavy ground over 1m and prior to that finished 4th on last visit to Wolverhampton in a 7f contest the extra 2f in this race should make this horse competitive, #8 Grandstand dead heated at Wolverhampton 2 weeks ago over 1m 1/2f in a 12 runner handicap at 22/1 and Tyler Heard takes a valuble 7lbs off again like 2 weeks ago, #9 Enzo hasnt won in 11 races but did finish 2nd last time out over C&D and has blinkers applied for this race could make the frame if conitnuing that form on, #13 Van Dijk is 0 from 13 currently finished 3rd 2 weeks ago at Wolverhampton over 1m 1/2f with an apprentice on board this time Cam Hardie takes over for the ride again could make the top 3        Selection: #8 Grandstand

1900 Wolverhampton
#1 Tornado Queen is a C&D Winner latest in September 2 starts ago most recently though was a disappointing 12th at Chelmsford although will have a chance if returning to Wolverhampton form and jockey switch to David Nolan for this contest, #2 Buckingham has gone 17 races without a win did finish 2nd last time at Chelmsford 3 weeks ago beaten by short short of 2 lengths Charlie Bishop takes over from Joe Fanning who rode last time this is a big chance to break a winless streak, #3 Flying Dragon for Richard Hannon won C&D by 1 Length on 13th October that ended a 2 time unplaced streak and Sean Levey retains the ride, #5 Athimad C&D winner 2 weeks ago has gone up 3lbs for that but with Luke Morris retaining the ride can go close once again to making the top 3 , #9 Dreamseller is a C&D winner and has 3 wins from 9 starts in 2020 last of which at Musselburgh in September most recently finished 5th at the scottish venue one to consider for Tim Easterby's yard, #10 Eponina won at Leicester last time out nearly 3 weeks ago last AW start was at Chelmsford on the run before that finishing 3rd an outside chance with Theodore Ladd taking 3lbs off, #12 Critical Thinking is a 6 time course winner most recent being 2 months ago goes up in trip for this contest by 1f having finished 6th last time out and has to enter calculations at a bigger price as was only beaten by 3.5 lengths    Selection: #2 Buckingham


Sha Tin
0500 - 8 Amazing Agility   - 9th
0530 - 4 United We Stand  - 2nd
0600 - 5 Super Red Dragon  - WON 10/1
0630 - 1 Golden Four  -  8th
0700 - 3 Helaku Knight  - 11th
0735 - 1 Decisive Action  -  5th
0805 - 3 Buddies   -  WON 8/1
0835 - 12 Joyful Fortune  -  2nd
0910 - 6 Circuit Three  -  3rd
0945 - 14 Natural Storm  - 2nd

Edited November 14, 2020 by ipswich45
results being added

[richard-westwood]

250 chelt 

Golan fortune  277

Good man pat  275

Very tricky race but decent prices available so I'll play here 

Golan fortune 5pts ew 13/2 4places sky

Good man pat 5pts ew 18/1 4places willh

[beaker1]

12:30 - JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle.

This race has thrown up some serious triumph hurdle contenders in recent years and it looks like this year’s renewal will be no different. A whole host of trainers had won this race over the years, with Allmankind taking home the spoils for Dan and Harry Skelton by a commanding 2 ½ lengths. Paul Nicholls also has won this race in recent years after not having a winner in the race since 2012. Hot favourite Hell Red is owned by the same owners as 2018 winner Quel Destin and has leading claims. He fairly bolted up on his first start at Chepstow, destroying a field of 8 by an easy 12 lengths. He made all that day and could very well be ridden in a similar fashion here. He has a lot in his favour after that impressive win however this field will be a lot more competitive than that at Cheltenham. He is not the only one to win so impressively and with a field off 8 going to post on Saturday, there is some better each way value out there. 

Third to Hell Red was Billy The Squid. The latter was a distant third and is much more exposed than a lot of these runners. He has had six starts over hurdles and is the lowest rated in the field. It would take something of a miracle for him to feature in the finish here and he will be looking for something in an easier field in the future. He has also been convincingly beaten by Balko Saint in an earlier race. Balko Saint was beaten at a short price on his last start but is not without a small chance here. Last seen at Fontwell he was second too See The Eagle Fly who was having his first start over hurdles. They drew a mile clear of everything else and although he was beaten, the winner could have improved for going over hurdles. He has not come out again, so it is hard to gauge that form. He will want a quick surface, but he is not guaranteed such conditions and could very well be a wait and play on the day pick. There would have to be significant improvement for him to win though. 

Looking back toward the top of the market, there are two horses who have opposed each other already. Duffle Coat took home the spoils last time he and Cabot Cliffs met by an impressive 8 lengths. Duffle Coat took his hurdles very well and made it a hattrick of victories when taking the Listed race at Wetherby. Dropped out the back, he came with a sweeping run down the home straight. He was impressive but my eye was drawn to Cabot Cliffs who ran very valiantly in defeat. He won his first start over hurdles at Uttoxeter beating into second Magna Moralia who was only ¾ of a length behind Cornerstone Lad at Redcar. Cornerstone Lad is a 159-rated hurdler and if Cabot Cliffs can improve to anywhere near that level it may be enough to take this. There is a huge price difference between him and Duffle Coat, and I think they will be much closer this time. It was his first run this season and hopefully there will be a good pace for him to get in behind and come with a winning effort.  

Probably the most interesting runner in the field is the David Pipe trained Adagio. A winner on the flat in France he was sent to Pipe to try his luck over hurdles and he did not disappoint. It was a messy start to the race but Adagio jumped with a fair amount of ability on his first start over the smaller obstacles. He beat the 78 rated flat horse Duke Of Condicote by a 7½ length margin and looked good for every yard of that. He falls into the could be anything category and although I did like the performance, he would have to be something pretty special to take this. I would watch him with great intrigue, as he will be winning more races this season. 

advice:

CABOT CLIFFS 0.5pts E/W @ 12/1 (General)

[beaker1]

1:05 – South West Syndicate Handicap Chase.

A Class 3 3m1f handicap chase that looks wide-open with horses rating from as low as 111 and as high as 141.

Bermeo arrives right down the bottom of the handicap off a measly mark of 111 and after scoring impressively over course and distance last time out, you can see why he is strong in the market. He is 7lb higher for that win however and faces much tougher rivals here but Angus Cheleda does take 7lb off his back. Other runners who get a fair bit of weight from the rest of the field include What A Moment and Young Turk, but both have been poor recently and will need to find a little bit more. 

Richard Patrick is back in the yellow and purple silks to take charge of Storm Control for Kerry Lee. Despite not scoring in almost a year now, he has fallen to a workable mark of 131, 2lb lower than his latest effort at Wetherby, he could be interesting taking a massive step up in trip. The Venetia Williams horse Realm Keeper is another who could be interesting stepping up in trip after undergoing wind surgery in February. He makes his first run back since January, after being poor over hurdles in France (0-8), he has been switched back to chasing, where he looked most comfortable. Interesting after a long lay-off but easy to look elsewhere in thus field with only French form to go on.

Colin Tizzard has started to find his form again with a double at Exeter on Wednesday, and his runners are always worth a note at this meeting. Although his horse finished 31 lengths behind the eventual winner in the Grade 2 National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, Lamanver Pippin ended up finishing third, and looked like a real stayer over the 3m6f trip that day. He could be really interesting, but may need the run on his seasonal debut as so many from the Tizzard yard have done. Fergal O’Brien arrives with two runners in the race including course and distance winner Petite Power. He was very poor on his seasonal debut, however, so will need to bounce back to last season’s form. His other chance is the lightly raced Ocean Cove who is yet to score over larger obstacles and hasn’t looked like winning a race so far. He is 3lb lower today again, but he looks out of his depth.

Others making their seasonal debut include Equus Secretus, Arthur’s Gift  and  Fingerontheswitch. The former gets has gone up 5lb this season after David Bass rode the eight-year-old to victory in a Class 4 chase at Huntingdon, just about justifying even money, only winning by a head. Claimer Nick Phillips gets on-board today with his 7lb claim, but the horse will need to be at his very best to follow up. Arthur’s Gift has recorded only one win over fences, but when tried around the 3m trip, he seems to do his best work. The nine-year-old seemed to struggle a bit over an extreme distance in the Edinburgh National towards the end of last season. The return to 3m½f should suit but he seems to love the soft/heavy ground, so might be worth a market check if the heavens open.  Millie Wonnacott seemed to get a very good tune out of Fingerontheswitch last season but is now replaced by Miss Victoria Malzard, hoping to carry on the consistency, with her 7lb claim. The ten-year-old’s previous run ended with him being pulled up after clouting the 13th fence in the Kim Muir, despite travelling strongly, but he was well behind the second in the race KILFILUM CROSS, and that rival must be in with a shout. 

Despite being top weight on a mark of 141, a chance is taken on KILFILUM CROSS. Don’t let the fact that this horse has only one victory since being sent chasing put you off, as he still has the best form on offer in the field. His second in the Kim Muir has taken plenty of boosts with the winner coming second in Grade 3 company over in Ireland after being very well supported that day, behind a 160-rated horse. He’s coming into this race 1lb lower than his seasonal debut fourth at Fakenham over three miles, and that should set him up nicely for this race. With race fitness on his side, he can get his head in front once again here.

advice:

KILFILUM CROSS - 1pt E/W @ 5/1 (Sky Bet - 4 places)

[beaker1]

1:40 - From The Horse’s Mouth Podcast Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) 

One of the most exciting races of the whole weekend takes place over two miles and involves some of the best up and coming Novice Chasers. A field of 6 go to post and there is a fantastic depth of talent from some of the top yards. Put The Kettle On won this race last year and went on to win the ultimate prize when clinching the Arkle at Cheltenham back in March. It seems only fitting that we therefore start with the Henry De Bromhead trained runner in this race, ZARKAREVA. After moving from A Boisbrunet in the summer of last year, when winning her only start in France; Henry De Bromhead most likely expected more than he got during her first campaign over hurdles. A disappointing first season saw her beaten a long way on all three starts and then fall on her final start over fences. This season however saw a revival in her fortunes. The application of a tongue strap has seen a dramatic change in fortunes, her latest win was by far her most impressive after she came from last to first, beating A Wave Of The Sea and Polished Steel. The latter is a solid yard stick rated 133, making this performance even more impressive. She took her fences brilliantly and he fact Henry De Bromhead has sent her over is a massive eye catcher. There are a few negatives by her name however as she is only four and has only gone right-handed in Ireland. But ZARKAREVA is a very young horse so this could be another learning curve however I would not be surprised to see her go very well.

 

Quel Destin most recent victory was on the flat at Bath, taking advantage of a 68-handicap mark. It was a good run, and he will be fit for this attempt over fences. He has enjoyed a fine time over hurdles achieving a mark of 156. Unlike most of his other rivals he has yet to have a go over fences and therefore it is hard to gauge how good he will be. However, if anyone can get a horse jumping well, it’s the master trainer Paul Nicholls and we will learn a lot from this outing. He’s only five and could still be improving but you would be a brave man to take the 9/2 available when we haven’t seen him jump a fence yet.   

Next up are the two likely pace angles in the race. Gumball and Eldorado Allen are both front runners and have both opened their accounts over fences. The Phillip Hobbs trained Gumball was beaten by the market leader Fusil Raffles on his first start after running far too freely. He just didn’t find much after leading most of the race but that run was put behind him when winning on his next start at Uttoxeter. He beat the very well backed King Roland, but he looked like he needed the run, and I don’t think ran up to his true form. He’s the outsider of the field and while you couldn’t discount him entirely, I just don’t think he will quite have the class to compete here. 

Eldorado Allen put up a very encouraging first effort when beating Stormy Island and ploughed through the last so is certainly better than the winning distance suggests. The Tizzard team had been in poor form, yet Eldorado Allen won first time up, when most looked to have needed the run. He could be open to even more improvement but wouldn’t want the ground to dry up too much. 

 

The favourite Fusil Raffles is no doubt a worthy one. He carries a 3lb penalty but he couldn’t have been any more impressive. He has some quality hurdle form and jumped supremely well on what was only his seventh start, beating some interesting novices. He won very well on his last start at Cheltenham which gives him that all important tick next to his name that he handles the unique course. My only major concern would be the quality of opponent he beat, especially on his last start, and at around even money he looks to be a very short price. 

advice:

ZARKAREVA 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

[beaker1]

2:15 – Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 

The first ‘big handicap’ of the season and one with a few very strong trends associated with it, starting with a nod to experience. All of the last 12 winners of this race have had at least two runs at this venue and all but one of those have had at least five chase runs. That’s a massive black mark in the column of ante-post favourite, Saint Sonnet, who would not only become the first five-year-old to win the race since Caid Du Berlais in 2014, but has only had three runs over fences in his life so far. Combine that with the abysmal record of favourites over the past decade (0/10) and this well-fancied, unexposed sort comes out as one of the worst value horses you could think of in terms of ticking the trends boxes.

His yard, however, is without doubt the best source of winners and placed horses in the past decade. Nicholls has not only saddled two of the last eight winners, but he’s also trained a placed horse in four of the last six years that he hasn’t won the race. Saint Sonnet still has to be respected as a result, as does the stable’s other runner, Brelan D’As, who was an agonisingly close second in the race last year. Two other yards have tasted success more than once in recent history, they are Jonjo O’Neill (2013 & 2016) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (2008, 2010 & 2017). The first named saddles Sky Pirate and the latter has Al Dancer representing his local yard this year.

When we consider the age of recent winners it is clear that seven-year-olds come out on top, having been successful in six of the last 12 renewals. No runner aged older than nine has won this since 1975, so the ten-year-old Aso is well up against it on the trends, while the record of five-year-olds is poor, with only one winner since the turn of the millennium. Six-year-olds have won the race four times since 2000, but recently, it’s seven, eight or nine-year-olds who have dominated – 15 of the 20 winners have come from that age band.

The next trend is related to official ratings and the desired bracket is between 139 and 148. This accounts for nine of the last twelve winners, with only Al Ferof, Taquin Du Seuil and Splash Of Ginge having defied this stat, the first two higher and the last named lower. In terms of this year’s field it’s a negative for the top seven horses in racecard order and the bottom three – interestingly, only seven horses fall into this bracket this year: Spiritofthegames, Saint Sonnet, Domaine De L’Isle, Brelan D’As, Kauto Riko, Fidux and Pinson Du Rheu.

Even though the weights can depend on the quality of those entered, it can often play a big part in the outcome of competitive races such as this. Since 2000 only Our Vic, Al Ferof and Taquin Du Seuil have carried more than 11st 3lb to victory, so combined with the likely soft ground, this suggests that all the horses above Spiritofthegames could have that count against them. 

The final factor worthy of mention is the betting and even though favourites aren’t the ones to be with historically, this is not a race in which it is worth taking a punt on one at a really big price. In fact, eight of the last ten winners were sent off at an SP of 14/1 or less with Splash Of Ginge (25/1) the biggest priced winner in the last decade. The likes of Simply the Betts, Mister Fisher, Siruh Du Lac, Al Dancer, Slate House and Spiritofthegames are currently available at odds between five and ten to one.

Shortlist:

BRELAN D’AS – 8/8

Sky Pirate – 7/8

Al Dancer – 6/8

Conclusion

Taking all things into account, only one of the contenders match all eight of the key trends and it’s no surprise that he’s trained by Paul Nicholls, who has a sensational record in this. However, what is the surprise is that it’s not his 4/1 favourite, Saint Sonnet, but his 14/1 chance, BRELAN D’AS. He was an agonisingly close second in the race last year from a 5lb lower mark but even though he’s a bit higher in the weights this year, he’ll actually carry 1lb less in physical weight. This 2m4f trip and the likely soft ground combine to form his ideal conditions and his best efforts have come at this track in big handicaps previously, so there’s no reason why he wouldn’t put in another big run here. He was still going well off this mark in the Caspian Caviar when a bad error three out ended his challenge, so given some solid jumping and the brilliant form of his stable, he could go close.

Sky Pirate misses out on the full house of trends by just one, spookily reminiscent of his racing career, where second place, more often than not, is the order of the day. He often travels sweetly into his races, looking all over the winner, only to find absolutely nothing when push comes to shove – again the case on his latest outing when second at Wetherby behind the well-handicapped Cool Mix – so don’t be surprised to see his jockey motionless turning for home, before getting very animated for a short time with little response from the horse. However, even though we can bash the horse, he’s usually a good jumper, is very consistent and with just 10st 2lb on his back, could certainly place.

With six contenders level on six out of eight trends boxes ticked, we have to make a choice on who is the best of those to complete our shortlist and it’s a close race between Spiritofthegames, who is one of the most consistent handicappers at this level that you will ever see, and Al Dancer, who spent most of his novice season over fences running crackers at Graded level and embarks on his second season chasing with a first run in a handicap over the larger obstacles. While Spiritofthegames is a proven commodity in races like this and often goes well fresh, he was pulled up in this last year, so I’ll go with the potential of Al Dancer, who beat a good horse in Master Tommytucker at newton Abbot over 2m5f, while giving 6lb to that rival, who won in serious style at Huntingdon on Tuesday. On that evidence, a mark of 154 given to Al Dancer could well be lenient and if Nigel Twiston-Davies’ charge can avoid jumping errors, his class should take him a long way with race fitness assured.

[beaker1]

2:50 Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race)

Sometimes in these big handicaps it can pay to look at the trends. One of the most striking ones in this race is the success of horses who have carried less than 11 Stone. In the last 10 years only one horse has won this race when carrying more than that weight. That horse was First Assignment for Ian Williams. He bolted up that day and was clearly much better than his handicap mark suggested, so it may very well pay to look at horses lower in the handicap who are also quite unexposed. It seems only right to start with one of the three horses who carry more than 11 Stone. The first of these is the red-hot favourite, Tea Clipper. Trained by Tom Lacey he fits the profile of a fast-improving handicapper who could very well be miles ahead of his current mark. He went up 7lb for a 2-length win at Chepstow on his latest start, putting to a bed a field off mid 130-rated handicappers. He was clearly the best that day but would have to take another massive step forward to win this. I’m not sure he will be quite good enough to win this despite only carrying 11st 2lb, furthermore Tom Lacey has been in very poor form. He’s only had 1 winner in 23 attempts over fences and hurdles and because of this there could be one to take him on with lower down the weights. 

 

Paul Nolan sends over the Irish raider, Mrs Milner and she’s one of the more interesting runners as she carries a very low racing weight and has taken the journey over from Ireland. Paul Nolan, like Tom Lacey has struggled to get going this season however he has had some near misses. She does have some solid form and is only a Five-year-old, Robbie Power gets the leg up which is a positive sign. She would have to improve significantly to take this renewal, after being raised 8lb by the British handicapper compared to her Irish mark. She could run into a place but there are too many question marks by her name to make her the selection. 

Weather Front comes here for Iain Jardine and goes up to 3 miles for the first time. He looked to get badly outpaced last time out at Cheltenham and a step up in trip could very well suit. Despite finishing down the field he did not get dropped any weight, which would be a worry. He’s more of a watch and see if he gets the 3 miles and then plot him for another race when his mark is lower.

 

On The Blind Side is having his first run of the season after a mixed season over fences. Chances are this is more of a prep run for another crack at fences as his mark is quite high. He is second top weight but is on the same mark as his last hurdle success; this came a long time ago but any sort of return to this form could see him go very close. Golan Fortune won this race last year when only 2lb lower than his mark tomorrow. He is a very consistent performer, getting on very well with Mr S Lee, the jockey who rode him to victory last year. He is not without a chance and gets a first-time visor after what was a good fourth behind Unowwhatimeanharry at Aintree last time. 

Goodmanpat looks to be quite well handicapped and carries a nice low weight. His return run was somewhat lacking, but he has shown to improve for a run which I’m sure he will do. He is a very appealing e/w price, but his form round Cheltenham is very poor. He has yet to show his best on an undulating track and I’m worried 3 miles round here could be to steep for him.  

My pick comes from the in-form Kim Bailey yard. DANDY DAN drops back to hurdles after racing over fences for the last few years. It’s a striking move and with the yard in such good form it is hard to ignore. He falls just under the 11 Stone trend and posted a good effort on his seasonal reappearance. He is rated 11lb higher than his last run over hurdles in 2018, but this wouldn’t worry me too much as he was racing over a much shorter distance which proved to not be his optimum. I fancy his chances to go very close against the favourite and hopefully keep the good form going for the Bailey yard. 

advice:

DANDY DAN 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power - 4 places

[beaker1]

3:55 ?- Karndean Designflooring Mares' Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race.

The final race of the day is the traditional National Hunt Flat Race. One horse who immediately takes the eye is COLOURS OF MY LIFE for Alan King. At 20/1 he seems ridiculously big looking at his last run and his trainers record in the race. Alan King has won it twice in recent years and in 2018 won it with Glancing Queen for the exact same owners as COLOURS OF MY LIFE. His debut won saw him finish 5th but looking back he is much better than that. He looked to have the race sown up when travelling into first, about a furlong a half out but once he hit the front he found very little and will no doubt have learnt a lot from that and will be much fitter on this outing. The form of his first run is working out well with the winner taking a Mares Novice Hurdle, which is impressive on her second start. Related to some very good horses I think he is far too big a price and expect him to get a place.  

The main fancy is a Dan Skelton runner, Elle Est Belle. Winner of her last start she beat a small field by a convincing distance. Although she was impressive, we don’t know what she beat, whereas with some of the others in this field the form is easier to read. She could be anything and the Skelton yard do very well with flat horses but at around 2/1 she is very short in quite a competitive field. Lady Jane P and Jersey Lady also won their first starts but by comparatively lower distances. Crucially, it is hard to tell how much they will have come on for that run but the horse in behind Jersey Lady has come out and won since. Oliver Sherwood has been in fantastic form so she could very well run very well again.  

Uncanaver got off the mark at the second attempt when winning at Fontwell by a commanding 20 lengths. A J Honeyball has been in flying form and everything he trains at the minute seems to win or go very close. In the last 5 seasons he has had an impressive strike rate in bumpers, winning them at an emphatic 32% strike rate. He again has already got very short in the market and his win at Fontwell was over a smaller distance, when he got things his own way. While he has leading claims, I prefer to look for things with more of an each way chance because picking an outright winner can often be very difficult. Ishkara Lady won by a ½ length at Uttoxeter after just under 700 days off the track. It was a brilliant training performance but since the start of the season Harry Fry’s form has slightly tailed off, so I would wait until they pick back up again before backing his runners with much confidence. 

advice:

COLOURS OF MY LIFE 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 (bet365)

[Tedthewolf]

2.15 Chel- 2 e/w outsiders that look well overpriced to me both worth a play imo with 5 places bog avilable  DOMAINE DE LISLE 40/1 & ASO 20/1

 

 

[Villa Chris]

Tea Clipper is now a non runner which was always going to be the case with the expected rain. It’s now  brought my pick On The Blindside down to 5/1 so won’t be playing ew with that one now. 

Edited November 14, 2020 by Villa Chris

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

12.30 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Adagio @ 13/2

I think the favourite is too short here - powerful connections and a good debut on these shores but didn't beat a huge amount and I prefer the substance and promise of Adagio's recent win. Did a lot wrong but still showed how much of an engine he possesses to pull clear up the run in and had the right horses in 2nd and 3rd to suggest the form is solid. This stiff track won't inconvenience at all and if jumping a bit better today, can make them all go.

1.05 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Ocean Cove @ 8/1

Remains fairly lightly raced for an 8yo and has had excuses on its recent runs - shaped quite well at Aintree when weakening late on last time after an absence and also had to overcome an absence three starts back at Chepstow. Record fresh isn't great so can forgive those efforts and between those runs he was a solid 2nd behind a well-handicapped rival and then had excuses in the staying race at the Festival in March. With last time out's run under his belt, will strip fitter here and conditions suit.

1.40 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Le Patriote @ 11/1
Seems a bit overpriced in a competitive race having bounced back to form with a ready success in a 3 runner novice chase last time. Beat a couple of decent types that day and is more than capable of competing with the best of these on his day. Had a quiet season in hot races last term but was highly promising the winter before and shaped better recently, suggesting he could have the spring back in his step and if so, looks to hold a chance here.

2.15 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Coole Cody @ 14/1

Got on at bigger prices yesterday but this horse is certainly well handicapped in my opinion and has conditions suit so the only question mark is the fact he's a novice in a competitive handicap. That said, I think he'll race handy, he jumps well and has the tactical speed to hold a position and if achieving that, I think he's more than capable of landing this off what looks a very fair mark.

2.50 Cheltenham - 2pts win Golan Fortune @ 5/1

Seems to be thriving on his racing and if he's recovered from a solid effort at Aintree a week ago ought to go very close again. Won this race last year and remains off a winnable mark. Shaped really well here over shorter two starts back and wasn't beaten far last week either. The return to this stiffer track will suit and has the visor added for the first time which can eek out a bit more all being well. Rock solid option.

3.25 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Whatsupwithyou @ 7/1

Another solid e/w play here having run really well behind Captain Tom Cat last time on his seasonal reappearance. Looks fairly handicapped on a sound novice effort at Kempton last year which worked out well and the return to softer ground can be a plus too to bring out this one's abundant stamina. Can turn the tables on his recent conqueror in my eyes and whilst the favourite is unexposed, there are still some question marks over its wellbeing and isn't necessarily bred for a 2m5f slog around Cheltenham.

[calva decoy]

1 hour ago, Tedthewolf said:

2.15 Chel- 2 e/w outsiders that look well overpriced to me both worth a play imo with 5 places bog avilable  DOMAINE DE LISLE 40/1 & ASO 20/1

 

 

Do you fancy any of the 3 Irish Runners today at Cheltenham as I know it's an angle you look at ?

1145 Punch - CONFLATED 5/1

113 Weth - SAHKEE'S CITY 9/1

500 Wolv - GLOBAL STYLE 6/1

739 Wolv - BANDOSS 9/1 

Each Way Lucky 15 bet365

Edited November 14, 2020 by calva decoy

[The Equaliser]

Some win bet selections based upon media Napster selections who are in profit and have a reasonable strike rate

2.15 Chelt Slate House 75p win at 12/1
2.15 Chelt Cool Cody 75p win at 16/1 (Top RPR, Timeform and ATP)
2.15 Chelt The Russian Doyan 50p win at 20/1
Should be fun to watch for just risking £2

2.30 Ling Mustang Kodi 50p win at 33/1

2.50 Chelt Weather Front £1 win at 8/1

2.58 Weth Theatre Legend £1.20 win at 15/2

3.40 Lin Judicial £1.25 at 11/2

Total stakes so far = £5.95

Possibly back later with some more losers.

Good luck to all punting today

==============================================================================

Cool Cody won for me after making several mistakes so a profit on the day of £6.80.  The amended singles balance is now £153.28 (£400 Bank)

No multiples today so the balance remains at £631.69 (£800 Bank)

More class action at Cheltenham later

 

Edited November 15, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[alancraik]

todays selections


CHELTENHAM 14:15 Mister Fisher 9/2 win

CHELTENHAM 14:50 On The Blind Side 5/1 e/w 4 Places

CHELTENHAM 15:25 Captain Tom Cat 10/3 win

[Villa Chris]

18 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Some win bet selections based upon media Napster selections who are in profit and have a reasonable strike rate

2.15 Chelt Slate House 75p win at 12/1
2.15 Chelt Cool Cody 75p win at 16/1 (Top RPR, Timeform and ATP)
2.15 Chelt The Russian Doyan 50p win at 20/1
Should be fun to watch for just risking £2

2.30 Ling Mustang Kodi 50p win at 33/1

2.50 Chelt Weather Front £1 win at 8/1

2.58 Weth Theatre Legend £1.20 win at 15/2

3.40 Lin Judicial £1.25 at 11/2

Total stakes so far = £5.95

Possibly back later with some more losers.

Good luck to all punting today

 

 

 

Keep the faith haha. I’m never confident on a Saturday for some reason. Had a luckless week so far, too. 

[Tedthewolf]

2 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Do you fancy any of the 3 Irish Runners today at Cheltenham as I know it's an angle you look at

Not for me today Calva  but all 3 will probably win now!!

[alancraik]

5 hours ago, alancraik said:

todays selections


CHELTENHAM 14:15 Mister Fisher 9/2 win up

CHELTENHAM 14:50 On The Blind Side 5/1 e/w 4 Places 1st 7/1

CHELTENHAM 15:25 Captain Tom Cat 10/3 win 3rd

 

[Villa Chris]

On 11/13/2020 at 2:37 PM, Villa Chris said:

2.15 Cheltenham, Simply The Betts 9/2

2.15 Cheltenham, Siruh Du Lac 12/1 ew

2.50 Cheltenham, On The Blind Side  5/1

3.25 Cheltenham, Kepagge 6/1

Double 17/1 Cheltenham 

Siruh Du Lac has a lot going for him. I expect On The Blind Side to run a big race even though he’s known as a chaser now. Couldn’t ignore him at that price. Kepagge is open to more progress and will appreciate the rain. 
 

Edited post because Tea Clipper non runner. Single bet added with simply the Betts . It’s also effected my ew play with On The Blindside who’s now a straight win bet . 

On The Blindside saves the day. 25 points profit on the day