Racing Chat - Tuesday 27th October

[ChasingDreams]

13.20 Chepstow

A competitive Maiden Hurdle to wet the appetiser and it’s BALMUICK (Nap) who gets the vote. He was well backed on bumper debut at Hexham last month where he powered clear to win cosily by four lengths for top connections and he looks the one to beat. Star Gate was bought for six figures after winning sole start in Irish points in February and could be set for a big run on Hurdle debut. Everglow can make his presence felt and is of serious danger to the selection, dropping back in class from Class 1 to Class 4.

13.50 Chepstow

WAYFINDER has been a very consistent type throughout his career so far and did well last season when winning a bumper and a competitive handicap hurdle, showing promise when runner-up on his chase debut at Ffos Las on return last time out and can improve from that. The in-form Schnabel is an obvious threat as he goes for a three-timer. While Hideaway Vic who has never finished outside the first three is primed for a big run on chase debut and is a major player.

2.10 Catterick

The versatile GRACE AND VIRTUE continued her fine progress when recording her third win of the season at Musselburgh a fortnight ago (7f, soft). She is back up in class here but that might not prevent her from winning this. Her last two victories where she won emphatically both times have come on similar ground to this and she can take all the beating if taking to track. Praxeology rates the chief threat after considerable improvement over course and distance 10 days ago (soft), with the rampant Hollie Doyle on board.

3.25 Chepstow

An intriguing novice chase and cases can be made for a few of these but it is LIOSDUIN BHEARNA who was last seen dishing out a commanding 6-1/2 length beatdown to Blackjack Kentucky in a Doncaster handicap hurdle back in February who gets the vote.  L'Air Du Vent who improved gamely in his last performance, once laid down a challenge to Shiskin in an Irish point-to-point, so could yet have untapped potential so rates a big player. The consistent Ashfield Paddy is also one of interest on chase debut, having performed admirably over Hurdles thus far.

3.40 Bangor-on-Dee

Closely related to the ever popular fan favourite The New One, it is THE NEWEST ONE who gets the tentative selection. He has shown improvement with every run so far in his short career and now fresh from a break, he gets his chance to show what he’s capable of. Lightly raced Cathal’s Star showed improved form to get off the mark when winning handily at Sedgefield on his reappearance last time out so is a big danger, albeit now 11lb up from that win. While market leader Java Point is of interest and can make presence felt for Kim Bailey, open to improvement on handicap debut now up in trip.

[Wildgarden]

210 catterick grace and virtue 4.3 Betfair exchange win (only 5-2 nearest bookie)

Up in class but on recently preferred ground and looked a class above rest last race. May prefer smaller field more than others and stats look good from trainer.

[richard-westwood]

220 chep 

Galileo silver  288

Arkyn 285 

Galileo silver looked strong in defeat last time and no shame in that run ....has a big fitness edge now and richard johnson takes the ride .......arkyn is an outsider but has run well on soft in the past and has run some good races over 2m4/5 so if he can last home has ew chances 

Galileo silver 6pt win 3/1 bet365

Arkyn 3pt ew 16/1 bet365 

 

 

Edited October 27, 2020 by richard-westwood

[harrisman]

Fontainbleu 10.55

 

Extreme 1pt ew 6/1

 

An interesting x country race with a vulnerable short priced favourite in my eyes,which last won on the current very testing going as described 6 years ago. Partic interested with the horse at the foot of weights Extreme ridden by one of the best x country and steeplechase jocks this season.

[Valiant Thor]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

220 chep 

Galileo silver  288

Arkyn 285 

Galileo silver looked strong in defeat last time and no shame in that run ....has a big fitness edge now and richard johnson takes the ride .......arkyn is an outsider but has run well on soft in the past and has run some good races over 2m4/5 so if he can last home has ew chances 

Galileo silver 6pt win 3/1 bet365

Arkyn 3pt ew 16/1 bet365 

 

 

This is one of the races Ive done as well

I have GS as a top rated green (shoo in ) but the negative edge puts me off in a 15 runner field ( I dont make money backing my neg edge bets to win only,green or not).
I would have been tempted with a 20:80 bet on this 20%win 80% place around the 5/1 mark.
Spectator & KK Lexion are both above Arkyn but its was so long ago since they ran they were in a race with dinosaurs, so thats a bit off putting and would throw Arkyn into the mix for a place.
GS should have you @ the payout window barring any mishaps 
but @ 3/1-7/2 not my cup of tea.
G'Luck VT

[richard-westwood]

11 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

This is one of the races Ive done as well

I have GS as a top rated green (shoo in ) but the negative edge puts me off in a 15 runner field ( I dont make money backing my neg edge bets to win only,green or not).
I would have been tempted with a 20:80 bet on this 20%win 80% place around the 5/1 mark.
Spectator & KK Lexion are both above Arkyn but its was so long ago since they ran they were in a race with dinosaurs, so thats a bit off putting and would throw Arkyn into the mix for a place.
GS should have you @ the payout window barring any mishaps 
but @ 3/1-7/2 not my cup of tea.
G'Luck VT

I really enjoy your ratings and as you said when our horses match ...they usually run pretty well but that's to be expected given the volume of form on both sides ......I'm rating the sodexo gold cup saturday currently for the forum it's this weekend big race ....will you be rating ?? It's a very very hard race so woukd be very interesting  to see what comes up 

Edited October 27, 2020 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

13 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

This is one of the races Ive done as well

I have GS as a top rated green (shoo in ) but the negative edge puts me off in a 15 runner field ( I dont make money backing my neg edge bets to win only,green or not).
I would have been tempted with a 20:80 bet on this 20%win 80% place around the 5/1 mark.
Spectator & KK Lexion are both above Arkyn but its was so long ago since they ran they were in a race with dinosaurs, so thats a bit off putting and would throw Arkyn into the mix for a place.
GS should have you @ the payout window barring any mishaps 
but @ 3/1-7/2 not my cup of tea.
G'Luck VT

Interesting though your take on value.....we differ slightly because In every race there are about 3 or 4 donkeys....i get rid of those then base my value on what's left ....its never been a problem as 99 times out 100 the donkeys finish no where and its makes the race easier to rate cos i take them out at the start so in a 28 runner race I'll be rating 22 etc then i base the value on that but that's just me lol

[Valiant Thor]

2 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I really enjoy your ratings and as you said when our horses match ...they usually run pretty well but that's to be expected given the volume of form on both sides ......I'm rating the sodexo gold cup saturday currently for the forum it's this weekend big race ....will you be rating ?? It's a very very hard race do woukd be very interesting what comes up 

Yes ,I'll be rating it.
Wont be till Sat though as ground on the day is taken into consideration and at this time of year it can turn in the blink of an eye so nearer the race the better plus ratings alter with withdrawals etc etc 

[Valiant Thor]

42 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Interesting though your take on value.....we differ slightly because In every race there are about 3 or 4 donkeys....i get rid of those then base my value on what's left ....its never been a problem as 99 times out 100 the donkeys finish no where and its makes the race easier to rate cos i take them out at the start so in a 28 runner race I'll be rating 22 etc then i base the value on that but that's just me lol

Im not interested how a horse ran in the past or who it beat and didnt beat, Im only interested in how it will run on average against the others today
The "value" as you put it is not based on the books price per say , Its based on the numerical differences in the ratings (Z-score) so the more accurate the ratings the more accurate the price , as long as every horse is rateable then the z-score (std dev, mean ,blah blah blah etc etc) tells you how they should fare on average against one another in that race that then changed from a %age to odds gives an indication of how the different horses should be priced according to the difference in the ratings
 

Edited October 27, 2020 by Valiant Thor

[Valiant Thor]

Double post

Edited October 27, 2020 by Valiant Thor

[Chicoguapo]

Meep Meep - 3.05b

 

Ex Tom Lacey mare who was initially quite highly thought of judging by NH flat entry at Aintree. Things never panned out & she found herself at Dan Skelton's yard. Wasn't missed in the betting on yard debut in August presumably connections thought 107 was a gift. Ran as if something was a amiss & it's encouraging that they have given her plenty of time, the handicapper has dropped her to 104 as well, I'm expecting a big run & I've had a few quid on at 7/2

 

 

[Pirate53]

Catterick 14.10

The popular choice seems to be Grace and Virtue, but she's up 7lb for her last win. I prefer Lord Oberon who will like the ground, has dropped 2lb and has a 3lb claimer aboard as well. 5lb should do the trick!

[richard-westwood]

16 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

Im not interested how a horse ran in the past or who it beat and didnt beat, Im only interested in how it will run on average against the others today
The "value" as you put it is not based on the books price per say , Its based on the numerical differences in the ratings (Z-score) so the more accurate the ratings the more accurate the price , as long as every horse is rateable then the z-score (std dev, mean ,blah blah blah etc etc) tells you how they should fare on average against one another in that race that then changed from a %age to odds gives an indication of how the different horses should be priced according to the ratings.
 

Then I see why they seem to compliment each other ......mine are based on past runs .....who beat who etc lol ....priority is given to last 2 runs so that's 2 ratings ......then the best run in last 6 ....that's 3 ratings ......a class rating that's 4 .....and a recent performance rating based on last 3 runs that is completely diff method from the other 4 like a bonus figure  .....weight is adjusted accordingly then the computer will take it's best "guess " as to what the horse can achieve today if it runs its race .based on the big picture ........I learned this method from the weather forecasts funnily enough...its how the super computers predict the weather....take loads of diff perspectives and see roughly what will happen...so if i get 4 figures 221 224 219 and 227 then realistically a figure of 223 for today is realistic given similar conditions /weight etc ......the last 2 are class rating ....I then judge the value on the ratings ... so if I rate a race 

Horsez1  225  3/1 

Horse 2  224   10/1 

Horse 3 224 7/1 

Horse 4  223  5/2 fav

Horse 5  219  7/1 

Then obviously horses 2 and 3 are the value bets ..   it's a no brainer 

If the ratings are 

Horse 1   233  7/2 

Horse 2 230 6/1 

Horse 3 225   4/1 

Horse 4 222 10/1 

With the other horses behind ....then the top 2  look value in these conditions to me and I'll play .....that's how i roll every time .....

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

12.30 Bangor - 1pt e/w Rintulla @ 8/1

Weak race but this one is a bumper winner and showed glimmers in novice hurdles last season. Wasn't disgraced in his two most recent outings with the form of those races suggesting this mark isn't beyond him now going chasing. From a family of better jumpers than him so there's good reason to believe there's a bit more to come and Toubougg's progeny have a decent record over fences with around a third of those who've run in this sphere having recorded a win.

1.10 Catterick - 1pt e/w Astrophysics @ 10/1

I think this one is well overpriced today for all he can be a bit in and out. Never showed last time but has put in numerous solid runs under similar conditions to today including off higher marks earlier this season and this is a significant drop in class here. Is drawn wide which will turn into a positive assuming they come down the stands side in these conditions and if on a going day, will make 10/1 look a bit daft. 

1.30 Bangor - 1pt win Megalodon @ 6/1

Has been a bit in and out in its career to date but won a handicap hurdle last season and ended the campaign in decent form. Didn't learn a lot last time in a novice chase he had no chance of winning when sent off at 200/1 but that will have blown away the cobwebs and at least he showed he can jump a fence no problem. With that under his belt going back into a handicap I think he's a big chance so long as he doesn't get too far behind.

3.05 Bangor - 1pt e/w Jennys Day @ 11/1

This one has plenty of form in the book and crucially conditions are no problem here as it stays further and also handles give in the ground (heavy ground winner in the past). Weakened out of it when last seen but that was after a mammoth absence and it went well to a point that day. Has been off since but for nowhere near as long and has gone well fresh previously. Yard in decent nick with their last runner going in at the weekend and I think this one has sound hopes here.

3.15 Catterick - 1pt e/w Quick Look @ 28/1

Ran no race out wide over 5f at Pontefract last time but this horse hasn't gone through a prolonged period of poor form in his career ever so it's not impossible he'll bounce back and was running crackers off higher marks earlier in the season under similar conditions to today. His best form has come over 6f with give in the ground at quite easy tracks so Hamilton and Pontefract maybe not perfect the last twice either and this looks a bit easier so as outsider of the field, is worth chancing. 

3.40 Bangor - 3pts win Java Point @ 4/1

Kim Bailey's horses are bang in form and this one looks an ideal candidate to keep that going today. Is back after a break but has gone well fresh before and is handicapping up in trip after some very promising runs in 2 mile novice hurdles. Won a soft ground point over 3 miles and is bred to get further than this so that's a huge plus and looks fairly handicapped when staying on behind some nice types recently. So long as he's fit enough, should take the world of beating today.

[The Equaliser]

One Trixie today

1.40 Catt Rich Belief (KS) 13/8
3.15 Catt Redrosezorro (JH) £2 win at 7/2
4.25 Catt Carlovian (JH) £2 win at 4/1

One £1 win trixie = £4 v poss return of £106.49

Other bets:

12.40 Catt Miss Nay Never (JH) £2 win at 10/3 = £8.66 Has a 5lb pull with the favourite

1.10 Catt The Golden Cue (JH) £1 win at 12/1

1.40 Catt Seguauter (DT) £1 win at 6/1

2.10 Catt Ey Up Its Mick £2 win at 11/2 ( I think it will beat Hollie Doyle's horse)

3.15 catt Lucky Lucky Man (BMc) £1 win at 10/1

3.50 Catt Lara silver (DT) £1 win at 5/1
3.50 Catt B Fifty Two £1 win at 17/2 (Sentimental reason)

4.25 Catt God Of Dreams £1 win at 10/3 (Ins bet)

Total multiples = £4

Total singles = £14

Total stakes = £18

Back later with Southwell bets

Good luck to all today

===========================================================================================

Let down once again by the fancied horses, don't know why I bother.  Anyway three winners at good prices meant a decent return of £25,50 v stakes of £14 = £11.50 profit on the day.  The singles balance c/fwd is now ££164.99 (£400 Bank)

The multiples lost £4 so the balance now c/fwd is £626.69 (Bank £800)

Two meetings over the jumps tomorrow in the UK, one on the flat and one on the all weather.  I will focus on the flat meeting and the all weather meeting; don't think I will get around to the jump meetings, four meetings too much for me.

Nighty night, don't let the bed bugs bite

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 27, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[Valiant Thor]

Might as well stick these up as Ive rated them (have you rated any of these races Richard?)

As Ive made the effort to rate them seems a waste not to back them
14 * 1pt ew doubles @ sp
28pts staked on the yellow highlighted extra place races
 

[yossa6133]

2 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

3.40 Bangor - 3pts win Java Point @ 4/1

Kim Bailey's horses are bang in form and this one looks an ideal candidate to keep that going today. Is back after a break but has gone well fresh before and is handicapping up in trip after some very promising runs in 2 mile novice hurdles. Won a soft ground point over 3 miles and is bred to get further than this so that's a huge plus and looks fairly handicapped when staying on behind some nice types recently. So long as he's fit enough, should take the world of beating today.

Looks a nice sort, bit of a worrying drift from 10/3 to 11/2.

[Valiant Thor]

7 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

220 chep 

Galileo silver  288

Arkyn 285 

Galileo silver looked strong in defeat last time and no shame in that run ....has a big fitness edge now and richard johnson takes the ride .......arkyn is an outsider but has run well on soft in the past and has run some good races over 2m4/5 so if he can last home has ew chances 

Galileo silver 6pt win 3/1 bet365

Arkyn 3pt ew 16/1 bet365

 

Unlucky there Richard
As soon as Spectator pulled alongside I thought game over fo GS

5 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

This is one of the races Ive done as well

I have GS as a top rated green (shoo in ) but the negative edge puts me off in a 15 runner field ( I dont make money backing my neg edge bets to win only,green or not).
I would have been tempted with a 20:80 bet on this 20%win 80% place around the 5/1 mark.
Spectator & KK Lexion are both above Arkyn but its was so long ago since they ran they were in a race with dinosaurs, so thats a bit off putting and would throw Arkyn into the mix for a place.
GS should have you @ the payout window barring any mishaps 
but @ 3/1-7/2 not my cup of tea.
G'Luck VT

Spectator wins @ 22/1

[richard-westwood]

19 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

Unlucky there Richard
As soon as Spectator pulled alongside I thought game over fo GS

Spectator wins @ 22/1

Bummer ...nicely rated though ...he hadn't run for 18 monthes so couldn't account for that 

[Valiant Thor]

13 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Bummer ...nicely rated though ...he hadn't run for 18 monthes so couldn't account for that 

If GS hadn't have been a green rated (downgraded to orange now ) I would have backed Spectator but thats life , swings and roundabouts.
Be nice if a few of my others pop in to make up for it

Edited October 27, 2020 by Valiant Thor

[Valiant Thor]

4 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

Might as well stick these up as Ive rated them (have you rated any of these races Richard?)

As Ive made the effort to rate them seems a waste not to back them
14 * 1pt ew doubles @ sp
28pts staked on the yellow highlighted extra place races
 

Thanks to Cross Fire a NR  28pts staked 30.72pts returned, (better than losing I suppose)
Highjacked , Galileo Silver , Let Me Be all placed Sea of Mystery still to run

[Wildgarden]

22 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

210 catterick grace and virtue 4.3 Betfair exchange win (only 5-2 nearest bookie)

Up in class but on recently preferred ground and looked a class above rest last race. May prefer smaller field more than others and stats look good from trainer.

3rd drifted out on odds and 5 lengths behind deserved winner