Jump to content

Racing Chat- Monday 19th October


Recommended Posts

Got a feeling I should have focussed on Windsor instead of Pontefract.  Never mind I can come back later

Just some single win bets today, so far at least.  NB last night's best prices shown after jockeys initials 

1.45 Pont Naamoos (JF/MJ) 3/1, £2 win at 6 = £9.80 (has a strong favourite to beat.  Scary

2.50 Pont Cruyff Turn (DT) 2/1, £2 win at 4.2 (um at 3.75)

3.20 Pont Inexes (JH) 6/1, £1.87 at 12 = £20.16

3.50 Pont Case Key (PM) 9/2, £1.20 win at 11/2 = £7.80

4.20 Pont Jill Rose (HT) 9/2, £1.20 win at 7/1 = £9.60

2.30 Win Tenfold (OM) 6/1, £1.20 win at 8/1

Total stakes £9.47 (if Cruyff Turn gets matched which is looking more unlikely atm)

===============================================================================================

Cruyff Turn did get matched and duly lost.  Amounts to a £9.47 loss on the day.  The balance c/fwd is now £156.40 (£400 bank)

Terrible run of results.  Th only thing keeping me in profit at the moment are my in-running lay bets on the Betfair Exchange.  It's a pity that I can't share them as even I don't know which ones that they will be until a race is off and getting to the business end.  I do have some rules for them but hardly enough to put forward a proven winning strategy as it's still early days with it.

One flat meeting, two all weather and one over the jumps in the UK tomorrow.  I have to go out quite early in the morning tomorrow and won't be back until after lunch so I guess everyone will have to wait for my losing selections until later on ?

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
Results Update
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1.00 Windsor - 1pt e/w Flip Mode @ 12/1 Bet365

Taken a while to get going but has shaped better the last twice and this free going sort looks ready for the drop back to the minimum trip. Needs a bit of luck in running but can be allowed to crack on a bit more today rather than be restrained and has been nibbled in the market already. 

1.15 Pontefract - 1pt e/w The Bravest @ 11/1 Bet365

Iain Jardine's runner has bags of stamina in his pedigree and he's shaped that way in two starts to date, failing to build on a promising debut 3rd behind two good horses when getting outpaced at Newcastle last time. Looks off a fair mark on that debut run and his excess stamina will help around Pontefract on soft ground. Would hope they ride him positively if he can get handy but this will likely be a slog late on and that will really help so definite claims.

1.45 Pontefract - 2pts win Naamoos @ 9/2 Hills

Surprised at the price of Naamoos for all I suppose these conditions are somewhat new. Was a good 2nd on debut to a race experienced horse who is now rated in the 100s and then this one bolted up by 17 lengths next time out. The favourite here was impressive on debut but too little form to go off since to judge it and I think this second favourite is the bet.

2.10 Plumpton - 1pt e/w Peace Prevails @ 22/1 Bet365

Shaped pretty well on hurdling debut in a decent race, ticking off rivals from the rear and staying on for 3rd. Only fairly moderate on the flat but ought to come on for that experience and has solid place claims again at a big price. 

2.50 Pontefract - 2pts win Awake My Soul @ 13/2 Bet365

Getting on a bit now but in good form and looks capable of scoring off this mark. Was denied a clear run a couple of starts back and ran a blinder when 2nd last time out. Stays this trip well, handles soft ground and was almost three lengths clear of the horse in 3rd last time which suggests this mark is by no means beyond him.

3.50 Pontefract - 1pt e/w Sin E Shekells @ 14/1 Bet365

Was disappointing on his first start for the yard last time but he is a free going sort and was too keen over 7f on bottomless ground that day. Definitely has ability, as shown in Ireland and the drop back to a stiff 6f looks likely to suit this headstrong type. If he can conserve his energy, should be competitive at the finish.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Got a feeling I should have focussed on Windsor instead of Pontefract.  Never mind I can come back later

Just some single win bets today, so far at least.  NB last night's best prices shown after jockeys initials 

1.45 Pont Naamoos (JF/MJ) 3/1, £2 win at 6 = £9.80 (has a strong favourite to beat.  Scary

2.50 Pont Cruyff Turn (DT) 2/1, £2 win at 4.2 (um at 3.75)

3.20 Pont Inexes (JH) 6/1, £1.87 at 12 = £20.16

3.50 Pont Case Key (PM) 9/2, £1.20 win at 11/2 = £7.80

4.20 Pont Jill Rose (HT) 9/2, £1.20 win at 7/1 = £9.60

2.30 Win Tenfold (OM) 6/1, £1.20 win at 8/1

Total stakes £9.47 (if Cruyff Turn gets matched which is looking more unlikely atm)

 

Just looking at this 1:45 at ponty and doing the speed figures (dodgy this time of year) and for info purposes only i have it between roseabad 12/1 and pythagoras 13/2 and mystery angel 7/1 in that order so i recon the fav isn't that strong prob make a prat of myself but numbers are numbers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Plump 3.40 - Gateway to Europe 5/2 bet365

This a novice handicap chase which is a bit risky because the runners haven't got a great deal of chase form in the book

My selection is having his second run over fences and his first in a handicap chase

He's won at the track over hurdles, distance and going look OK, he's won a handicap hurdle off 6lbs lower which suggests he's ok in this grade. Had a decent record over hurdles with 8 wins and places from 12 runs

His first run over fences looks good ........ he finished 2nd in a 3 runner race but both the other 2 won next time out. They are rated 138 and 147 so getting in a handicap off 123 might be a generous mark

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

Just looking at this 1:45 at ponty and doing the speed figures (dodgy this time of year) and for info purposes only i have it between roseabad 12/1 and pythagoras 13/2 and mystery angel 7/1 in that order so i recon the fav isn't that strong prob make a prat of myself but numbers are numbers.

Hope you did the forecast!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

1.00 Windsor - 1pt e/w Flip Mode @ 12/1 Bet365

Taken a while to get going but has shaped better the last twice and this free going sort looks ready for the drop back to the minimum trip. Needs a bit of luck in running but can be allowed to crack on a bit more today rather than be restrained and has been nibbled in the market already. 

1.15 Pontefract - 1pt e/w The Bravest @ 11/1 Bet365

Iain Jardine's runner has bags of stamina in his pedigree and he's shaped that way in two starts to date, failing to build on a promising debut 3rd behind two good horses when getting outpaced at Newcastle last time. Looks off a fair mark on that debut run and his excess stamina will help around Pontefract on soft ground. Would hope they ride him positively if he can get handy but this will likely be a slog late on and that will really help so definite claims.

1.45 Pontefract - 2pts win Naamoos @ 9/2 Hills

Surprised at the price of Naamoos for all I suppose these conditions are somewhat new. Was a good 2nd on debut to a race experienced horse who is now rated in the 100s and then this one bolted up by 17 lengths next time out. The favourite here was impressive on debut but too little form to go off since to judge it and I think this second favourite is the bet.

2.10 Plumpton - 1pt e/w Peace Prevails @ 22/1 Bet365

Shaped pretty well on hurdling debut in a decent race, ticking off rivals from the rear and staying on for 3rd. Only fairly moderate on the flat but ought to come on for that experience and has solid place claims again at a big price. 

2.50 Pontefract - 2pts win Awake My Soul @ 13/2 Bet365

Getting on a bit now but in good form and looks capable of scoring off this mark. Was denied a clear run a couple of starts back and ran a blinder when 2nd last time out. Stays this trip well, handles soft ground and was almost three lengths clear of the horse in 3rd last time which suggests this mark is by no means beyond him.

3.50 Pontefract - 1pt e/w Sin E Shekells @ 14/1 Bet365

Was disappointing on his first start for the yard last time but he is a free going sort and was too keen over 7f on bottomless ground that day. Definitely has ability, as shown in Ireland and the drop back to a stiff 6f looks likely to suit this headstrong type. If he can conserve his energy, should be competitive at the finish.

Another frustrating day with The Bravest beaten a short head, Peace Prevails also 2nd and Sin E Shekells travelling best of all to dispute 2f out yet finishing 4th at 16/1.

Wolverhampton fancies - all prices Bet365:

4.25 - 2pts win Pax Britannica @ 9/2 - dropped substantially in class from last time against horses in the 70s and still ran respectably despite being keen. The slightly easier track here will suit and down a couple of pounds in the handicap too.

5.00 - 1pt e/w Trusty Rusty @ 12/1 - agree with mase here and a horse who was chinned at big odds for me a couple of starts back. Ground an excuse last time, fair draw to bounce out from and track can suit those on the pace so looks to have solid each way hopes at a price.

5.30 - 2pts e/w Deftera Lad @ 9/2 - this looks an each-way bet to nothing as very difficult to see him out of the frame. Form figures at Wolverhampton read 434121352 so rarely runs a big race here and this isn't strong. Mark is fine too and drawn well so with a bit of luck, ought to go very close.

6.00 - 1pt e/w Heer We Go Again @ 8/1 - been running exclusively on the turf recently but form suggests he's best on the artificial surfaces and over 5f. Has had excuses with ground and trip recently but is drawn in stall 1 here so can bounce out under perfect conditions and hopefully be tough to pass.

6.30 - 1pt e/w Intimate Moment @ 25/1 - showed promise last year and whilst being a bit in and out since, has shown promise and enough to suggest she can win off this sort of mark. Ran better that the result suggests at Kempton last time over 6f, only fading late on and the drop to 5f is ideal around here. Well drawn and looks overpriced.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

Another frustrating day with The Bravest beaten a short head, Peace Prevails also 2nd and Sin E Shekells travelling best of all to dispute 2f out yet finishing 4th at 16/1.

Wolverhampton fancies - all prices Bet365:

4.25 - 2pts win Pax Britannica @ 9/2 - dropped substantially in class from last time against horses in the 70s and still ran respectably despite being keen. The slightly easier track here will suit and down a couple of pounds in the handicap too.

5.00 - 1pt e/w Trusty Rusty @ 12/1 - agree with mase here and a horse who was chinned at big odds for me a couple of starts back. Ground an excuse last time, fair draw to bounce out from and track can suit those on the pace so looks to have solid each way hopes at a price.

5.30 - 2pts e/w Deftera Lad @ 9/2 - this looks an each-way bet to nothing as very difficult to see him out of the frame. Form figures at Wolverhampton read 434121352 so rarely runs a big race here and this isn't strong. Mark is fine too and drawn well so with a bit of luck, ought to go very close.

6.00 - 1pt e/w Heer We Go Again @ 8/1 - been running exclusively on the turf recently but form suggests he's best on the artificial surfaces and over 5f. Has had excuses with ground and trip recently but is drawn in stall 1 here so can bounce out under perfect conditions and hopefully be tough to pass.

6.30 - 1pt e/w Intimate Moment @ 25/1 - showed promise last year and whilst being a bit in and out since, has shown promise and enough to suggest she can win off this sort of mark. Ran better that the result suggests at Kempton last time over 6f, only fading late on and the drop to 5f is ideal around here. Well drawn and looks overpriced.

 

Agree with your assessment of intimate moment got it very close with spirit in the sky so RFC it is, should pay well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...