Racing Chat - Tuesday Sept 29th

[BillyHills]

Nap:

610 Wolves
Toronado Queen 15/8 Bet365

NB:
230 Punch
Tiger Voice 11/8 bet365

EW

325 Bang
Royal Village 8/1 bet365

 

[Zilzalian]

Observations from this quarter, Abulla's racing manager Grimthorpe said of Logician and Enable they will not both run in the arc, which is a bit odd because Logician on my figures would destroy Enable I base this assumption on speed figures I never looked into Logician before and was pressed to do so by the fact when i looked at the Arc betting Logician was/is a whopping 33/1. I still maintain Enable wont win but my biggest quandary is will Persian King get 12 furlongs should i trust the master that is Fabre one must assume he has forgotten more about horses than all of us on here know about them so if he runs it in soft ground he must think it will get the trip. Thoughts people? 

[Villa Chris]

Bangor 1.40 

Midnights Gift 6/1

Cork 4.35

Flight Risk 11/2

Double 6.2/1

The Butcher Said(Bangor)

Could Be King ( Cork)

[calva decoy]

9 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Observations from this quarter, Abulla's racing manager Grimthorpe said of Logician and Enable they will not both run in the arc, which is a bit odd because Logician on my figures would destroy Enable I base this assumption on speed figures I never looked into Logician before and was pressed to do so by the fact when i looked at the Arc betting Logician was/is a whopping 33/1. I still maintain Enable wont win but my biggest quandary is will Persian King get 12 furlongs should i trust the master that is Fabre one must assume he has forgotten more about horses than all of us on here know about them so if he runs it in soft ground he must think it will get the trip. Thoughts people?

Has ran on good to soft once & other 4 career runs on a sound surface , it'll be like a mud bath on Sunday , I'm not one for fairytales but I'll be looking for a 3 year old who'll relish conditions , will either even make the frame ?

Shame J.Gosden won't be there to see her swansong , am surprised Stradivarius is entered , 12f not his bag !

[calva decoy]

If you're accessing this site via a mobile does anyone know how your supposed to log out now the site has been changed ?

Edited September 29, 2020 by calva decoy

[Trotter]

Enable is now favourite for the Arc with Love drifting from 6/4 to 5/2

Currently Enable is 7/4

[Bathtime For Rupert]

12.30 Ayr - 1pt e/w Kuwait Shield @ 12/1 Hills

Wasn't beaten too far by Plymouth Rock (5/1 here) last time out at Haydock and I think there's reason to believe he can close that gap off more favourable terms and with less of an emphasis on stamina here. An easier mile on good ground will suit better and was a solid 2nd off a higher mark earlier this year - some of these in here have been racing in weaker races and/or aren't proven at the trip and I think Kuwait Shield is overpriced at double figure odds.

1.00 Ayr - 3pts win Contact @ 2/1 Hills

Shorter price than most I back but would be very disappointed if he didn't win today. Ran with promise on debut over 6f and stepped up to run really well over a mile at Ripon despite hating the track. Couldn't get involved back over 6f last time in Ireland and really should win back to a mile on a flat track in a weak maiden here.

1.30 Ayr - 1pt e/w Royal Prospect @ 11/1 Bet365

Open handicap here and I just wonder if Julie Camacho's runner is sneaking back down to a workable mark and is also dropped in class today. This would be the easiest race he's contested in quite a while, having dropped down to a mark in the 70s now. Hasn't been running too badly and has cheekpieces on today so in weaker company and another 3lbs down the handicap, could go closer now with the yard in form.

1.40 Bangor - 1pt e/w Tidal Watch @ 9/1 Bet365

Seems to have been mildly progressive over jumps but his jumping has started to let him down over fences lately and the return to hurdles looks a good move. Has perfect conditions here eased in grade and still looks off a fair mark. 

1.50 Sedgefield - 1pt win North Point @ 6/1 Bet365

Fairly unexposed on the level but is rated in the 70s and not running disgracefully so is an interesting type sent over hurdles here. Bred to do better with his stamina stretched out and his sire has a good record over jumps which is encouraging - the favourite here is 5/4 having shown a similar level of ability with Gregorian's progeny so far not having the best start to life over jumps so at the prices, this ones looks of interest.

3.15 Ayr - 1pt e/w Redarna @ 8/1 Bet365

This one could barely have better course form with figures over c&d reading 11112 and was only denied by a neck when second. Shaped very well here over 1m2f last time when 4th but doesn't stay that far and now returns to ideal conditions at an attractive price given its profile here.

[Nigwilliam]

4 hours ago, calva decoy said:

If you're accessing this site via a mobile does anyone know how your supposed to log out now the site has been changed ?

On my tablets,I have to rotate on to the side,then the in/out option appears.

[yossa6133]

The earlier starts caught me out there, missed Rupert's 3 pointer! I had the exact same thoughts about Tidal Watch and almost backed him, but badly out of form now.

[The Equaliser]

One Trixie today

3.15 Ayr Harrison Point (HD) 2/1
3.50 Ayr Bucephalus (HD) 3/1 (£2 at 5.4 = £8.62)
5.10 Wolv Have To Have (RD) 9/2 (£2 at 6.9 = £11.57)

One £1 win Trixie = £4 v poss return of £116.50

Other Bets

3.15 Ayr Right Action £1.20 at 17/2 = £11.40

3.25 Bang Solstice Star £1.20 at 10/1 £13.20

5.40 Wolv Asmund 45p win at 25/1 = £11.70

6.10 Wolv Double Martini 70p win at 16/1 = £11.90
6.10 Wolv Aegus 30p win at 66/1 = £20.10

6.40 Wolv Tore Dorado 70p win at 12/1 = £9.10

7.40 Wolv Tom's Half Brother £2 win at 11/2 = £13

8.10 Wolv Freedom And Wheat £1.20 win at 6/1 £8.40

= £4 on multiples

= £11.35 on singles

= £15.35 in total

Poetry in motion

 

 

 

 

[Villa Chris]

8 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Has ran on good to soft once & other 4 career runs on a sound surface , it'll be like a mud bath on Sunday , I'm not one for fairytales but I'll be looking for a 3 year old who'll relish conditions , will either even make the frame ?

Shame J.Gosden won't be there to see her swansong , am surprised Stradivarius is entered , 12f not his bag !

Regarding Stradivarius. If the going is a mud bath, that may play into his hands? Sure the distance is on the short side for him, but can see his stamina coming into play if it’s heavy. Still find it hard for him to win this, mind. It’s going to be a fascinating race that’s for sure 

[Zilzalian]

12 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Has ran on good to soft once & other 4 career runs on a sound surface , it'll be like a mud bath on Sunday , I'm not one for fairytales but I'll be looking for a 3 year old who'll relish conditions , will either even make the frame ?

Shame J.Gosden won't be there to see her swansong , am surprised Stradivarius is entered , 12f not his bag !

Persian King has won on heavy so the heavy is not my prime concern the two factors heavy plus 12 furlongs is. now logician is confirmed a non runner and the other heavy ground horse Telecaster is also out i think 20/1 is a huge price for Persian King. i agree with your Stradivarious angle but wouldn't totally write him off, if they go a killer gallop he will be staying on late.

[The Equaliser]

5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

One Trixie today

3.15 Ayr Harrison Point (HD) 2/1
3.50 Ayr Bucephalus (HD) 3/1 (£2 at 5.4 = £8.62)
5.10 Wolv Have To Have (RD) 9/2 (£2 at 6.9 = £11.57)

One £1 win Trixie = £4 v poss return of £116.50

Other Bets

3.15 Ayr Right Action £1.20 at 17/2 = £11.40

3.25 Bang Solstice Star £1.20 at 10/1 £13.20

5.40 Wolv Asmund 45p win at 25/1 = £11.70

6.10 Wolv Double Martini 70p win at 16/1 = £11.90
6.10 Wolv Aegus 30p win at 66/1 = £20.10

6.40 Wolv Tore Dorado 70p win at 12/1 = £9.10

7.40 Wolv Tom's Half Brother £2 win at 11/2 = £13

8.10 Wolv Freedom And Wheat £1.20 win at 6/1 £8.40

= £4 on multiples

= £11.35 on singles

= £15.35 in total

Poetry in motion

 

 

 

 

Looks someone has removed the "edit" button

No worries.  Results update.

Two singles winners whilst Hollie let me down on the multiples

minus £4 on the multiples, therefore £658.69 C/Fwd (£800 Bank)

The two singles returned £21.40 less £11.35 = £10.05 profit.  therefore the balance c/fwd is now £238.82 (Bank £400)

I am truly loving backing only top and in form jockeys and apprentices.  Time will tell but I don't think that I will ever drop this initial and then deciding factor after considering all the other stuff like form, going, class course and distance etc.  It is in my humble opinion the only way to cut through all the hype that is bestowed on horses that should do the business but don't.  The owners/trainers insist on the best jockeys for their horses when they have a good chance of winning and by focussing on the jockeys and then the form etc seems to me to be a great way of cutting down on a lot of what amounts to unrewarding pre race research.

Three class 3 races at Nottingham and two class 3's at Kempton tomorrow so high class action definitely lacking