Racing Chat - Thursday Aug 13th

[BillyHills]

5 meetings on Thursday

Class 2 Handicap at Salisbury (2.50)

 

2pt EW Tulip Fields 

F/C Comb 1,5,7

 

 

[Striker]

3.00 Leopardstown-Fiscal Rules @ 7-2 Boylesports

Think connections are doing the right thing in bringing the colt back in trip

[Zilzalian]

2:20 Salisbury Kirstenbosch 20/1 is too big.

[black rabbit]

Giving Glances  2 50  sails    1 pt  win  @  32/1  betfair

 

 

 

P/L   = + 92.75  pts 

Edited August 13, 2020 by black rabbit
update totals

[The Equaliser]

12 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

2:20 Salisbury Kirstenbosch 20/1 is too big.

May I ask you how you arrived at this decision? also what price do you think the market should have it in at?  Also, have you backed it each way? Just interested that's all.

 

[The Equaliser]

Two Trixies today mixing up selections a bit

2..20 Sal Award Scheme 11/4 £1 win at 11/4
2.50 Sal Kepala 7/2 £1 win at 7/2
3.10 Ham Edgewood 3/1 £1 win at 3/1
One £1 Trixie = £4 = Poss Return of £117.37

2.20 Sal Queen Power 15/8
2.50 Sal Almareekh 2/1 £1 win
4.25 Bath Tell William 2/1 £1 win
One £1 Trixie = £4 = poss return of £52.11

Other bets:

3.40 Ham Pour Me a Drink 50p ew at 13/2 (4 places)
3.40 Ham Granite City Doc 50p ew at 17/2 (4 places)

Total multiple bets = £8.00

Total single bets £7.00

= Total stakes £15.00

May be back later but have a busy day today

Bathtime For Rupert's excellent selection scuppered my chance of a winning double today.  Hence an £8 loss on the day.  The balance c/fwd is now £678.43 Bankk £800).

Two winning single bets paid £8 + a place bet £1.57; therefore £9.57 less £7 = a small profit on the day of £2.57. My singles balance is now £299.50 (Bank £400)

All the class action is at Chester and Pontefract tomorrow so I will be focussing on those races there.

 

 

 

 

Edited August 13, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[Bathtime For Rupert]

1.35 Hamilton - 1pt e/w Spartakos @ 20/1 Bet365

Shaped with some promise in two starts to date - green on debut but not beaten a million miles (less than 6 lengths) and although well held in the end last time over 6f, led in that contest showing some good speed and faded inside the final furlong. That race has turned out okay though with everything in advance of Spartakos (beaten around 8l ultimately) has gone on to be rated well into the 70s so he should find it much easier handicapping off a mark of 57 today. Should have the speed for 5f and soft ground shouldn't inconvenience on pedigree so should find this more suitable.

2.10 Hamilton - 1pt e/w Show Palace @ 12/1 Bet365

Jennie Candlish's runner will relish any give in the ground and has slipped back down to a good mark of 70 with conditions to suit today. The losing margin last time out was exaggerated by the 7 length winner and this one was found to be lame after the race despite finishing a respectable 3rd. Was too keen and faded late on over 6f two starts back so can be excused there and was quite well fancied last time out so with excuses that day, I think is worth another go now he finds himself a 12/1 shot today.

2.20 Salisbury - 0.5pts e/w Alpinista @ 33/1 PP

The favourite holds obvious claims here but I think there are a few in with live each way chances and Sir Mark Prescott's horse looks a big price to me. Was a slightly unlucky 4th in France when last seen, short of room at a crucial stage in a steadily run race before keeping on to be beaten less than 3/4 length. Would have to step up in her bare form to date but ran well last year over 7f and a mile but it's clear as day that her best form will come over middle distances - by Frankel and out of a stoutly bred, strong staying dam who was rated in the 90s and won races up to 2m2f. Isn't the speediest but they should go a decent gallop today and that should bring her extra stamina into play - just looks a shade overpriced considering there should be more to come and her form isn't bad either.

2.50 Salisbury - 1pt e/w Point in Time @ 28/1 Bet365

Less progressive than some of these but has been running well and shouldn't be as big as 28/1 in my eyes. Wasn't far behind Kepala (10/3 shot today) last time out in a steadily run race which wouldn't have suited Point in Time (Kepala raced in 2nd) behind a progressive winner and two starts back this one shaped well despite being hampered and it being its first run for a while. Won at Newmarket off 2lbs lower last season but the front two were clear and the runner up is now rated 7lbs higher so isn't weighted out of this. It's possible that some of the younger horses will progress again but for a rock solid handicapper with conditions to suit, I think Point in Time is overpriced.

3.10 Hamilton - 1pt e/w Black Friday @ 12/1 Bet365

Has shaped well in two starts for his new yard, staying on over 7f on ground sharp enough for him on seasonal reappearance and then shaping well despite finding a mile too far last time out. Stays 7f but 6f with cut in the ground, a likely decent gallop and a stiff finish could see him at his best and he's dropped down to an attractive looking mark today. Everything looks primed for a big run and has been nibbled in the market this morning.

[yossa6133]

You are a hell of a judge Bathtime for Rupert, thanks for sharing ?

[Bill Robbo]

Rupert, wow, we are not worthy.

Bill Robbo

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Thanks gents. Always pick the wrong one in NAP of the day though - haven't had a winner in about 40 goes ?

[White Feather]

Well done Rupert,  I took your tips on Tuesday (lucky 15) and broke even. Looking forward to your tips this Saturday,  post early ha ha

Thank you

[Zilzalian]

10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

May I ask you how you arrived at this decision? also what price do you think the market should have it in at?  Also, have you backed it each way? Just interested that's all.

 

Well it was based on my own speed figures I rarely bet EW but 20/1 says everything I suppose, as it happens it came 4th. but i will say this, that winner alpinista is some horse I reckon based on the time of that race so I suggest you pop it (the winner) in your notebook. as for what i think the market should have had it at, well with all due respect i don't care for the market, in my opinion it usually serves only to get you to question your judgement.

Edited August 13, 2020 by Zilzalian
omitted a point

[Zilzalian]

5 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

Thanks gents. Always pick the wrong one in NAP of the day though - haven't had a winner in about 40 goes ?

I totally get this, So now i just simply assume my biggest price is my nap if i cant make my mind up.

[The Equaliser]

3 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Well it was based on my own speed figures I rarely bet EW but 20/1 says everything I suppose, as it happens it came 4th. but i will say this, that winner alpinista is some horse I reckon based on the time of that race so I suggest you pop it (the winner) in your notebook. as for what i think the market should have had it at, well with all due respect i don't care for the market, in my opinion it usually serves only to get you to question your judgement.

Hi Z, many thanks for your reply.  I only asked the question because I thought that if you thought that the horse's price was too big then you had some idea at which price it would have been about right and therefore not representing a value bet.

I find it fascinating how different members of PL use different methods to arrive at their selections   It is interesting that you use your own speed figures.  I do make a note of Racing Post's top speed figure in the races I look at but must confess I can't make head nor tail of them.

The race you were interested was a 10 furlong race.  I guess you would use them also for say sprint distances but then would you use them over the jumps and in races up to four and a half miles like the Grand National?

Your horse was only beaten 5.75 lengths so it ran very well.

[Zilzalian]

Well published speed figures tend to be followed therefore lose value, im a bit secretive with mine but i will say this i only do initial figures for 2 year olds and i end up with a list at year end so i know which are the fastest that have run. occasionally i will rate a race ie the derby guineas on the day of race (group races) the jumps i don't bother with.

[Striker]

On 8/12/2020 at 7:30 PM, Striker said:

3.00 Leopardstown-Fiscal Rules @ 7-2 Boylesports

Think connections are doing the right thing in bringing the colt back in trip

dropped out quickly and looked like he finished in discomfort

[Zilzalian]

On 8/14/2020 at 1:00 AM, The Equaliser said:

Hi Z, many thanks for your reply.  I only asked the question because I thought that if you thought that the horse's price was too big then you had some idea at which price it would have been about right and therefore not representing a value bet.

I find it fascinating how different members of PL use different methods to arrive at their selections   It is interesting that you use your own speed figures.  I do make a note of Racing Post's top speed figure in the races I look at but must confess I can't make head nor tail of them.

The race you were interested was a 10 furlong race.  I guess you would use them also for say sprint distances but then would you use them over the jumps and in races up to four and a half miles like the Grand National?

Your horse was only beaten 5.75 lengths so it ran very well.

Be interesting to see how Alpinista gets on today given what i said about its speed figure and popping it in your notebook.

[The Equaliser]

19 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Be interesting to see how Alpinista gets on today given what i said about its speed figure and popping it in your notebook.

Had 50p ew at 40/1.  hope it runs well

 

[The Equaliser]

4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Had 50p ew at 40/1.  hope it runs well

 

Not bad eh? 2nd place at 40/1 ?

[Zilzalian]

4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Had 50p ew at 40/1.  hope it runs well

 

Can't argue with 10/1 the place, in any other race its not unreasonable to assume it would have won quite easily.

[The Equaliser]

4 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Can't argue with 10/1 the place, in any other race its not unreasonable to assume it would have won quite easily.

Sir Mark Prescott is brilliant

[Villa Chris]

The fellow in the daily mail tipped Alpinista. Made a point that Love would pretty much win, but the pick was the main threat. 

[Zilzalian]

Going to stick my neck out and say Love nor Enable wont win the Arc.

Edited August 20, 2020 by Zilzalian

[Zilzalian]

17 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Not bad eh? 2nd place at 40/1 ?

The horse Alpinista beat runs in the next, Award Scheme lets see if it backs this form up, interesting.

[The Equaliser]

31 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Going to stick my neck out and say Love nor Enable wont win the Arc.

Well, I think I'm not sticking my neck out when I say that Stradivarious won't win it.  Don't know why John Gosden (I think) is running it

 

[Zilzalian]

Discussion for anyone reading....about group think and missing the obvious in racing (Pyledriver was 1 example), and what we have tomorrow is also a good example, Ornate has finished 3rd twice to Battash the fastest horse in the world (the last time beaten 2.5l) You can back Ornate ew at 80/1 8 runners tomorrow on bet365. I could waffle on all night about the thinking behind why Ornate is 80/1 but I wont. Previous runs behind Battash 100/1 placed, 66/1 lost and 33/1 placed.
 

[BillyHills]

47 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Discussion for anyone reading....about group think and missing the obvious in racing (Pyledriver was 1 example), and what we have tomorrow is also a good example, Ornate has finished 3rd twice to Battash the fastest horse in the world (the last time beaten 2.5l) You can back Ornate ew at 80/1 8 runners tomorrow on bet365. I could waffle on all night about the thinking behind why Ornate is 80/1 but I wont. Previous runs behind Battash 100/1 placed, 66/1 lost and 33/1 placed.
 

Might be better in tomorrow's thread rather than carrying on in one that is a week old? Wiil get more coverage.